1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the raw material side, the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply; the growth of nickel - iron production in Indonesia has slowed down, and domestic production has gradually declined. Recently, the price of nickel - iron has rebounded from a low level, strengthening the support of raw material costs [2]. - On the supply side, the production profit of steel mills has shrunk, but with the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season, the demand from infrastructure and real estate is gradually increasing, and the production schedule of stainless - steel mills has still increased [2]. - On the demand side, infrastructure construction in October is expected to speed up. Coupled with the positive fiscal investment policies in China, anti - involution measures are expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The market procurement demand is resilient, and the domestic inventory continues to decline [2]. - Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted. Both long and short positions are trading cautiously. Attention should be paid to the resistance at 12,900. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; the price difference between the November - December contracts is 5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,766 lots, a decrease of 8,314 lots; the position of the main contract is 100,253 lots, a decrease of 14,871 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 73,896 tons, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled stainless steel (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,550 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron production is 21,700 metal tons, a decrease of 300 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 million tons, an increase of 211,200 tons [2]. - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 122,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 930 yuan/nickel point, unchanged [2]. - The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, an increase of 24,800 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 576,700 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons [2]. - The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, an increase of 55.9799 million square meters [2]. - The monthly production of large and medium - sized tractors is 26,200 units, an increase of 4,000 units; the monthly production of excavators is 31,600 units, an increase of 1,000 units; the monthly production of small tractors is 10,000 units, an increase of 1,000 units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level China - US interactions [2]. - From January to September, the profits of large - scale equipment manufacturing industries increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all large - scale industrial enterprises, driving the profit growth of all large - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points; the leading role of high - tech manufacturing industries was obvious, with the profits of large - scale high - tech manufacturing industries increasing by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August [2]. - According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the ratio of the US government's total debt to GDP will soar by more than 20 percentage points from the current level, reaching 143.4%, breaking the post - pandemic historical record [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Suggest adopting a long - position approach and paying attention to the price range of 280,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton for tin investment. The macro - environment shows potential positive signals from China - US communication. The supply side may face shortages due to factors like the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia and changes in global tin - ore production. The demand side remains weak with most downstream and terminal enterprises being cautious. Technically, there is a decline in the bullish sentiment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 283,170 yuan/ton, down 3,550 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract closing price is down 390 yuan but with a 180 - yuan increase in the ring - comparison. LME 3 - month tin is at 36,090 US dollars/ton, up 440 US dollars. The main contract open interest of Shanghai tin is 40,436 lots, down 4,648 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,840 lots, up 230 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,725 tons, down 25 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange tin inventory is 5,766 tons, up 75 tons, and the warehouse receipt is 5,609 tons, down 43 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 284,300 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the Yangtze River Nonferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 284,580 yuan/ton, up 770 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is 1,130 yuan/ton, up 4,350 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 100 US dollars/ton, down 43 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan, and the processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan, and the processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 183,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.1093 million tons, up 0.1448 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 0.1976 million tons, up 0.031 million tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Wang Yi talked with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping for mutual efforts for high - level China - US interactions. From January to September, the profit of large - scale equipment manufacturing increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average of all large - scale industries, driving the profit growth of all large - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points. The profit of large - scale high - tech manufacturing increased by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August. The IMF predicts that by 2030, the US government's total debt - to - GDP ratio will soar by over 20 percentage points to 143.4% [3] 3.7 View Summary - On the macro - level, there are positive signals from China - US communication. On the fundamental level, the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia may tighten tin - ore supply. Tin - ore imports in September decreased month - on - month, with slow production recovery in Myanmar, unexpected decline in Africa and Australia, and the upcoming rainy season in Africa. At the smelting end, raw material shortages are severe in Yunnan, and the waste - recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, most downstream and terminal enterprises are waiting and only making small - quantity purchases, with low restocking enthusiasm. LME inventory increased slightly, and the spot premium rebounded slightly. Technically, the long - position sentiment declined as open interest decreased and prices fell. It is recommended to take a long - position approach and focus on the 280,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton range [3] 3.8 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust, with attention paid to the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in prices, it will maintain range - bound operation. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or conduct range - bound operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 120,560 yuan/ton, down 1,840 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for Shanghai nickel is - 260 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,335 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 115,046 lots, up 6,057 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 38,140 lots, down 4,457 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 251,238 tons, up 384 tons. The SHFE nickel inventory is 36,075 tons, up 1,656 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,408 tons, down 24 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 31,385 tons, up 1,605 tons [3]. b. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,150 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate from Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,250 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,590 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 205.18 US dollars/ton, down 11.06 US dollars [3]. c. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,497.91 million tons, down 30.93 million tons. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 0.2112 million tons [3]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 0.0248 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 0.5767 million tons, down 0.0069 million tons [3]. f. Industry News - Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level Sino - US interactions. From January to September, the profits of above - scale equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all above - scale industries, driving the profit growth of all above - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points. The high - tech manufacturing industry played an obvious leading role, with the profits of above - scale high - tech manufacturing industry increasing by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August. According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the ratio of the US government's total debt to GDP will soar by more than 20 percentage points from the current level to 143.4%, breaking the post - pandemic historical record [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. Fundamentally, the tight supply situation of copper concentrates has not improved, with TC fees hovering in the negative range. Overseas mine disturbances still have an impact, and ore prices remain firm. On the supply side, due to a large number of maintenance operations and the tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be restricted. Additionally, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and potentially leading to a decline in the operating rate. Domestic refined copper supply is gradually contracting. On the demand side, copper prices remain high due to cost support and overseas macro - sentiment. Downstream buyers are hesitant due to high prices and adopt a cautious wait - and - see purchasing strategy, resulting in a weak trading sentiment in the spot market. High copper prices thus suppress downstream demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory accumulating. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.37, a month - on - month increase of 0.1909, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market and a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 86,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,390 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,907 dollars/ton, a decrease of 122 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 281,306 lots, a decrease of 12,078 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 30,089 lots, a decrease of 6,554 lots. LME copper inventory was 135,975 tons, a decrease of 375 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 104,792 tons, a decrease of 5,448 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 9,975 tons, a decrease of 375 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 35,846 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 copper was 87,905 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 88,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan. The CIF (Bill of Lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper was 34.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 925 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,080 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 - month spread was - 23.84 dollars/ton, an increase of 2.13 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 258.69 million tons, a decrease of 17.2 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 42.7 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 1.73 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 78,540 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 1,830 yuan; the price in Yunnan was 79,240 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 1,830 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the South was 900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the processing fee in the North was 700 yuan/ton. The production of refined copper was 126.6 million tons, a decrease of 3.5 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 60,540 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 74,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,200 yuan [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The production of copper products was 223.2 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 437.8 billion yuan, an increase of 58.224 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,770.571 billion yuan, an increase of 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,371,236,100 pieces, an increase of 120,949 pieces [2]. 3.6期权情况 - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 23.77%, an increase of 1.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 17.9%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 23.95%, an increase of 0.0277. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.37, an increase of 0.1909 [2]. 3.7行业消息 - Diplomatic Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing hope for the two sides to work towards each other to prepare for high - level interactions and create conditions for the development of bilateral relations. Spokesperson Guo Jiakun of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to multiple hot issues such as the possible meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, Sino - US trade agreements, and the final agreement of TikTok, stating that the two sides are in close communication about the meeting of the two presidents [2]. - From January to September 2025, under the influence of multiple factors such as the continuous manifestation of the new policies' effects, the in - depth promotion of the national unified market, and the low base in the same period last year, the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size increased year - on - year, driving the benefits of related product industries and their chain industries to improve. Driven by the automobile replacement subsidy policy, from January to September 2025, the automobile production was 24.05 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The automobile industry's revenue from January to September 2025 was 7,823.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the cost was 6,886.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6%; the profit was 348.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the profit margin of the automobile industry was 4.5%, lower than the average profit margin of 6% of downstream industrial enterprises. In September, the automobile industry's revenue was 1,018.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.8%; the cost was 897.8 billion yuan, an increase of 11.3%; the profit was 44.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 38%; the profit margin of the automobile industry was 4.4%, a significant increase compared to August and a good increase compared to 3.4% in September last year [2]. - In September, the profits of national industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 21.6% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points faster than in August, with the growth rate exceeding 20% for two consecutive months. The new productive forces in high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries grew rapidly, and the profits of private and foreign - funded enterprises accelerated significantly [2]. - Since this year, over 76 million consumers have purchased over 126 million units of 12 categories of home appliances through the trade - in program, over 81 million consumers have purchased over 88 million digital products such as mobile phones, and 87,000 sales stores across the country have carried out the trade - in program for electric bicycles, with a cumulative exchange of over 12 million new vehicles [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Shanghai lead market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger next week, but the strength is limited. It is recommended to short at high prices and arrange short positions for lead prices when the price is high. If the Fed's interest rate cut next week falls short of expectations, the market may form a negative feedback [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,355 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,023.5 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 123,029 lots, down 6,161 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,110 lots, up 1,751 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 23,097 tons, up 49 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory was 232,375 tons, down 3,000 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 lead was 17,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 130 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 33.8 US dollars/ton, up 2.84 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was 22,000 tons, up 45,500 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 39,600 tons, up 500 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 2,500 tons, up 3,100 tons. The global lead ore output was 383,300 tons, up 3,400 tons. The lead ore import volume was 150,600 tons, up 15,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons. The refined lead export volume was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,016.07 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 45,696,000, down 3,984,000. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 2,022.6 points, down 20.23 points. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,450 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The monthly automobile output was 3.227 million, up 474,600. The monthly new - energy vehicle output was 1.58 million, up 247,000 [2]. Industry News - Amazon plans to lay off up to 30,000 people. The UK will stop disclosing the identities of short - sellers in the stock market. Zelensky said that a cease - fire plan will be formulated with allies within seven to ten days. Qualcomm launched an AI chip to compete with AMD and NVIDIA. The US extended the trade negotiation deadline by several weeks. The Philippine central bank official said that the gold reserve is "excessive" and a part should be sold for profit. OPEC+ oil - producing countries tend to implement a small - scale production increase again in December at the Sunday meeting [2]. View Summary - On the supply side, for primary lead, although some smelters plan to boost annual production and sales, there are many overhauls from October to November, so the output is expected to increase slightly. For recycled lead, the smelters affected by Document No. 770 are gradually resuming production, but the raw material inventory is low, and the waste transportation of recycled lead enterprises is affected by environmental protection requirements in the heating season in the north, so the output recovery is limited, and the lead ingot spot will remain tight in the short term. On the demand side, after the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded significantly. Entering the traditional consumption season, the replacement market of automobiles and electric bicycles supports the demand for lead. Some leading battery enterprises have good orders and expand energy - storage business, which will further increase the demand for lead. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually expanded, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will suppress the demand growth to some extent. The inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and the possible increase in recycled lead output, the inventory may change next week. If the inventory decline slows down, it will resist price increases [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the RB2601 contract rose and then pulled back. The central bank will improve the monetary policy framework, strengthen implementation and transmission, and improve long - term capital support policies. The weekly output of rebar increased with a capacity utilization rate of 45.39%, terminal demand increased, and inventory declined. Fed rate - cut expectations and production cuts in major steel - producing areas still support steel prices. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows a slowdown in the upward trend of DIFF and DEA, and the red column is shrinking. It is recommended to pay attention to the support around 3070, conduct short - term trading, and control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,091 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the position was 1,930,357 lots, down 22,644 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 103,837 lots, up 8,267 lots. The RB1 - 5 contract spread was - 63 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan. The RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 147,361 tons, down 3,058 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 214 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,320 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,140 yuan/ton, unchanged. The RB main contract basis was 209 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, up 12 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons. The sample coking plant coke inventory was 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons. The sample steel mill coke inventory was 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace开工率 was 84.73%, down 1.23 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.92%, down 0.39 percentage points. The Tangshan billet inventory was 1.2873 million tons, up 4,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The sample steel mill rebar output was 2.0707 million tons, up 59,100 tons; the rebar capacity utilization rate was 45.39%, up 1.29 percentage points. The sample steel mill rebar inventory was 1.8463 million tons, down 100 tons; the 35 - city rebar social inventory was 4.3748 million tons, down 189,300 tons. The independent electric arc furnace steel mill开工率 was 67.71%, unchanged. The domestic crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons. The Chinese rebar monthly output was 1.541 million tons, up 66,000 tons. The steel net export volume was 992,000 tons, up 91,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 0.50%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 13.90%, down 1.00 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, down 0.90 percentage points. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters. The commercial housing unsold area was 39.937 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in the country was 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 97.34 billion yuan. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", stating that in key areas, the total steel production capacity should not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited. The capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking in each province (autonomous region, municipality) should not be less than 1.5:1 [2]

1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Zinc ore imports are increasing as long - term contract ores signed by smelters arrive at ports, and refineries are stockpiling raw materials for winter production. However, zinc ore processing fees are down, sulfuric acid prices have fallen, squeezing smelter profits and causing some losses. New production capacity is being released, but refined zinc output growth is limited [3]. - Overseas zinc supply is tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected [3]. - The traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak. The real estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home appliance sectors bring some positive factors. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, but downstream demand is weak. LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and the spot premium has reached a record high, intensifying the tight situation [3]. - Technically, with reduced positions and rising prices, the bearish sentiment has weakened. Attention should be paid to the support at the 2.20 level. It is recommended to go long on dips [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,310 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts is - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,058.5 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars; the total Shanghai zinc open interest is 209,097 lots, down 4,393 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 8,609 lots, up 1,292 lots; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 68,271 tons, up 2,547 tons [3]. - The SHFE inventory is 109,168 tons, down 459 tons; the LME inventory is 37,050 tons, down 550 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,270 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3]. - The basis of the main ZN contract is - 40 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 212.89 dollars/ton, up 25.52 dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,310 yuan/ton, up 310 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% broken zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons [3]. - The zinc social inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume is 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 14%, down 0.47%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 14%, down 0.48% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.36%, up 0.21%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.82%, down 0.06% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level Sino - US interactions [3]. - From January to September, the profits of large - scale equipment manufacturing industries increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all large - scale industries, driving the profit growth of all large - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points. The high - tech manufacturing industry had a significant driving effect, with the profits of large - scale high - tech manufacturing industries increasing by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August [3]. - According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the ratio of the US government's total debt to GDP will soar by more than 20 percentage points from the current level, reaching 143.4%, breaking the post - pandemic record [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of supply reduction and slight demand boost, with prices potentially supported. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slight supply increase and strong consumption, with inventory depletion and positive expectations. The options market sentiment is bullish. It is also recommended for light - position range - bound trading and risk control [2]. - The cast aluminum market may be in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with inventory depletion and positive expectations. Similar light - position range - bound trading and risk control are advised [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,140 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,817 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 60 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; that of alumina was - 42 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 25,476 hands to 285,793 hands; those of alumina increased by 17,280 hands to 389,764 hands. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 3,850 tons to 469,275 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 3,860 tons to 118,168 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 57.60 million tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,160 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,790 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 21,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of casting aluminum alloy was 625 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was 20 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan. The basis of alumina was - 27 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: The alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 88.27%, up 1.53 percentage points. The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons [2]. - **Trade**: The export volume of alumina was 25 million tons, up 7 million tons; the import volume was 6 million tons, down 3.44 million tons. The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste was 155,414.40 tons, down 17,195.97 tons; the export volume was 68.54 tons, up 15.31 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Capacity and Production**: The total capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the production of primary aluminum imports was 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons. The production of aluminum products was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons [2]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum was 98.27%, up 0.16 percentage points; the operating rate of alumina was 85.98%, up 3.05 percentage points [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the production of aluminum alloy was 177.60 million tons, unchanged. The production of automobiles was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2]. - **Index**: The National Housing Prosperity Index was 92.78, down 0.27 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 9.47%, up 0.88 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.11%, up 0.34 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 12.96%, up 0.0099. The put - call ratio was 1.38, up 0.1726 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Automobile Industry**: From January to September 2025, the production of automobiles was 24.05 million, a year - on - year increase of 11%. The revenue of the automobile industry was 7,823.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; the cost was 6,886.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.6%; the profit was 348.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2]. - **Industrial Profits**: In September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 21.6% year - on - year, 1.2 percentage points faster than in August [2]. - **Consumer Goods**: More than 76 million consumers purchased over 126 million household appliances through the trade - in program, and more than 81 million consumers bought over 88 million digital products. Over 12 million electric bicycles were replaced [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - On October 28, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5790, down 0.14%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5580. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again at the October 28 - 29 meeting. Fundamentally, inventory is rising rapidly, production at a high level is slightly falling, inventory has risen for three consecutive weeks, the port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end has decreased by 930,000 tons, and the molten iron at the demand end is oscillating at a high level. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 115 yuan/ton and Ningxia spot profit is - 230 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel tender price in October is 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 180 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K is below the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. - On October 28, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5564, up 0.32%, and the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5260. In September, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 21.6% year - on - year, with a significant driving effect from high - tech manufacturing. In terms of supply and demand, manufacturers' production mostly maintains the normal state to deliver previous orders, most of the manufacturers' previous hedging, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The semi - coke price is stable, and the cost is supported in the short term. The Inner Mongolia spot profit is - 460 yuan/ton and Ningxia spot profit is - 410 yuan/ton. The tender price of HBIS 75B ferrosilicon in September was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 230 yuan/ton compared with the previous round. Technically, the daily K is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5790元/吨，环比下降12元；SF主力合约收盘价为5564元/吨，环比持平。SM期货合约持仓量为528,804手，环比下降1064手；SF期货合约持仓量为340,627手，环比下降4689手。锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 58,605手，环比增加1360手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 29,139手，环比下降2233手。SM5 - 1月合约价差为38元/吨，环比下降2元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为78元/吨，环比增加10元。SM仓单为38,603张，环比下降5424张；SF仓单为8,675张，环比下降2040张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5580元/吨，贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5600元/吨，云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5600元/吨，价格均环比持平。内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5300元/吨，青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5160元/吨，宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5260元/吨，价格均环比持平。锰硅指数均值为5641元/吨，环比增加1元；SF主力合约基差为 - 304元/吨，环比持平；SM主力合约基差为 - 210元/吨，环比增加12元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为24元/吨度，环比持平；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比持平。内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1200元/吨，环比增加50元；兰炭（中料神木）价格为810元/吨，环比持平。锰矿港口库存为436.4万吨，环比下降9.3万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为43.04%，环比下降0.24%；硅铁企业开工率为35.56%，环比增加0.08%。锰硅供应为207,410吨，环比下降1400吨；硅铁供应为114,100吨，环比增加1300吨。锰硅厂家库存为293,000吨，环比增加30,500吨；硅铁厂家库存为66,560吨，环比下降2520吨。锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.93天，环比增加0.95天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.52天，环比增加0.85天。五大钢种锰硅需求为122,683吨，环比增加1570吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19,935.9吨，环比增加363.38吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为84.73%，环比增加0.48%；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为89.92%，环比下降0.39%。粗钢产量为7349.01万吨，环比下降387.84万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 焦炭第二轮提涨全面落地，山东、河北主流钢厂发函对焦炭采购价上调，湿熄涨幅50元/吨，干熄涨幅55元/吨，10月27日0时起执行。国际货币基金组织（IMF）最新预测显示，美国政府债务负担率到2030年将达到143.4%，本世纪首次超过意大利和希腊。10月27日，国务院总理李强在马来西亚吉隆坡出席第五次《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》领导人会议。美国总统特朗普称，俄罗斯总统普京应结束乌克兰战争，而不是试射核导弹，并表示美国在俄罗斯海岸附近部署了一艘核潜艇 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The global sugar market is under pressure due to increased supply and demand concerns, with ICE raw sugar futures hitting a near - five - year low. In the domestic market, the supply of northern beet sugar will gradually increase in the short term, and the import volume of sugar is expected to exceed 500 tons this year, with significant pressure from later imports. Downstream demand is seasonally declining. However, the futures price is supported by cost, and the price is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5483 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the main contract position is 400,036 lots, down 1562 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7695, down 100; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 74,205 lots, up 4811 lots [2]. - The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 586, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4135 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4194 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [2]. - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5241 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5319 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5720 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons [2]. - The cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, up 44.98 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.99%, up 1% [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, down 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil is 324.58 million tons, down 49.82 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (within quota) is 1410 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1351 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 304 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 226 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.85%, down 1.32%; that of put options is 7.85%, down 1.37% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.68%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.1%, down 0.16% [2]. Industry News - China has suspended the import of all syrups and premixes from October 27 due to syrup quality issues announced by the Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives [2]. - ICE raw sugar futures hit a near - five - year low on Monday, with the most actively traded March contract down 0.51 cents or 3.40% to 14.46 cents per pound [2]. Other Information - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons [2]. - In September 2025, China's sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; from January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% [2]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that China's total sugar import volume this year will exceed 5 million tons, and the pressure of later import volume is still significant [2].