免责声明 多晶硅产业日报 2025-08-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 48720 | -480 9-10多晶硅合约价差 | -155 | 25 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 98033 | -12729 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 40360 | -340 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 46500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -2630 | 5575 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8360 | -140 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2430 in the short - term [7] - The average price of the domestic port methanol market rose this week, showing a post - decline volatile consolidation trend. The inland methanol market mainly increased. The upstream enterprises raised prices due to factors such as increased external procurement by northwest olefin plants, some device overhauls, and low enterprise inventories, and downstream buyers followed passively [8] - The output of restored domestic methanol production capacity this week was more than the loss of overhauled and reduced production capacity, with a slight increase in overall output. The inventory of inland enterprises decreased slightly this week, but the inventory may increase in some regions due to device restoration and load increase. The port methanol inventory continued to accumulate this week, mainly in the South China region. The inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the short - term, but the impact of weather on unloading speed needs attention [8] - In terms of demand, after the restart of Zhongmei Mengda olefin enterprise, its load is increasing. Zhejiang Xingxing stopped production in the middle of the week. After hedging, the olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly. There is still room for the olefin industry's start - up rate to rise [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2430 in the short - term [7] - Market review: The average price of the domestic port methanol market rose this week, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2370 - 2500 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2380 - 2490 yuan/ton. The inland market mainly increased, with the price in the northern line of Erdos ranging from 2025 - 2060 yuan/ton and the receiving price in Dongying from 2295 - 2305 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: The overall methanol output increased slightly. The inland enterprise inventory decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in the South China region. The olefin industry's start - up rate increased slightly, and there is still room for growth [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a - 5% decline [11] - Inter - delivery spread: As of August 1, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 92 [16] - Position analysis: Not provided in the content - Warehouse receipts: As of August 1, there were 8546 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1588 from last week [22] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of August 1, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2395 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2062.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 332.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 105 yuan/ton from last week [28] - Foreign spot price: As of July 31, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 272 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13 US dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 61 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars/ton from last week [34] - Basis: As of August 1, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 2 yuan/ton, an increase of 33.5 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.4. Upstream Situation - Coal and natural gas prices: As of July 30, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of July 31, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] 3.5. Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: As of July 31, China's methanol production was 1,930,125 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 85.36%, a 1.64% increase from the previous week [44] - Inventory: As of July 30, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 808,400 tons, an increase of 82,600 tons from the previous data. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 324,500 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons from the previous period, and the order backlog of sample enterprises was 230,700 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period [49] - Import volume and profit: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.2202 million tons, a 5.58% decrease from the previous week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.3773 million tons, a 14.68% year - on - year decrease. As of July 31, the methanol import profit was 21.7 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton from last week [52] 3.6. Downstream Situation - Start - up rate: As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 86.39%, a 0.32% increase from the previous week [55] - Disk profit: As of August 1, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 881 yuan/ton, an increase of 216 yuan/ton from last week [59]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.8.1」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -1.75% | | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.22%/本周变动-0.38BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -2.09% | | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.22% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周集体下跌。四期指亦集体 | | 本周点评：本周国债期货集体上涨，央行持续净投放， | | | 走弱，大盘蓝筹股弱于中小盘股。本周国内海外市场均 | | DR007加权利率回落至1.42%附近震荡。7月中央政治 | | | 有重要消息，海外方面，中美斯德哥尔摩关税谈判，如 | | 局会议未释放强刺激信号，符合市场预期，反内卷政策 | | | 期将关税休战延期 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - Recently, the support from cost and supply has weakened. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. Arbitrageurs are actively entering the market, but downstream terminal procurement is negative. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, there are expectations of short - term shutdown and maintenance for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical, and the butadiene plant of Shandong Yihua is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but under the weak demand expectation, the inventory of production enterprises may still increase. - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires decreased slightly this week due to the maintenance of individual semi - steel tire enterprises at the end of last month, and that of all - steel tires decreased due to the maintenance of some all - steel tire enterprises. Next week, the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises will drive the overall capacity utilization rate to a certain extent, but there are also individual enterprises planning maintenance at the beginning of the month. The overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,380 - 11,800 in the short - term [7]. - **Market Review**: The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market of domestic cis - butadiene rubber dropped from a high level this week, with the spot price fluctuating in the range of 11,400 - 12,300 yuan/ton. The price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Sales decreased by 400 yuan/ton in total, and that of high - cis butadiene rubber of major sales companies of PetroChina decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The support from cost and supply has weakened recently. The futures and mainstream supply prices of butadiene rubber have risen rapidly and then fallen back. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased overall, while that of trading enterprises has slightly increased. Next week, the supply is expected to decrease slightly, but the inventory of production enterprises may still increase under the weak demand expectation. The overall capacity utilization rate of tires is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall increase space is limited [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of synthetic rubber futures oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 7.73% [12]. - As of August 1, the 9 - 10 spread of butadiene rubber was 10 [19]. - As of August 1, the warehouse receipt of butadiene rubber was 2,290 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared with last week [22]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 31, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. - As of July 31, the basis of butadiene rubber was 205 yuan/ton, an increase of 420 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. 3.3 Industry Conditions - **Upstream** - As of July 31, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 611 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30.5 US dollars/ton compared with last week; the CIF intermediate price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 820 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0 US dollars/ton compared with last week [31]. - As of August 1, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.97%, an increase of 0.03% compared with last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 10,400 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons compared with last week [34]. - **Production and Utilization** - In July 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 129,200 tons, an increase of 6,700 tons compared with last month [38]. - As of July 31, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 72.46%, an increase of 4.83% compared with last week [38]. - **Production Profit** - As of July 31, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 375 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton compared with last week [41]. - **Inventory** - As of August 1, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 31,320 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with last week [45]. - As of August 1, the domestic manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 23,800 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons compared with last week; the trader inventory was 7,520 tons, an increase of 50 tons compared with last week [45]. 3.4 Downstream Conditions - **Tire Capacity Utilization** - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 10.19 percentage points compared with the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a decrease of 2.97 percentage points compared with the previous period and a decrease of 0.20 percentage points compared with the same period last year [48]. - **Tire Exports** - In June 2025, China's tire export volume was 717,100 tons, a decrease of 5.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 7.31% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, China's cumulative tire export volume was 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4.34% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of small passenger car tires was 279,100 tons, a decrease of 3.47% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 11.76% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of small passenger car tires was 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative increase of 1.62% compared with the same period last year [51]. - In June 2025, the export volume of truck and bus tires was 407,200 tons, a decrease of 7.00% compared with the previous month and a decrease of 5.11% compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative increase of 5.34% compared with the same period last year [51].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the macro and fundamental factors of the natural rubber market weakened from strong, leading to a high - level correction in rubber prices. The import rubber market reported falling offers, with traders rotating positions, closing arbitrage positions, and increasing far - month shipments. The futures market weakened significantly, the spot price of domestic rubber declined, and downstream buyers were cautious and hesitant [7]. - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, heavy rain has led to a shortage of rubber, and concentrated milk factories are under pressure to deliver orders and have to raise prices to purchase raw materials. In Hainan, local rainfall has disrupted the seasonal increase in raw material output. The spot market's bearish sentiment has strengthened, and local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a continued decline in the glue purchase price. Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao Port has shown a slight increase, with bonded inventories decreasing and general trade inventories increasing. The arrival and warehousing volume of overseas goods remain low, but the overall outbound volume is lower than expected due to terminal观望 [7]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire enterprises has declined due to maintenance. Although the resumption of production of maintenance enterprises next week will boost the overall capacity utilization rate, some enterprises have maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, so the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14300 - 14800 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12000 - 12600 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The macro and fundamental factors weakened, causing rubber prices to correct from high levels. The import rubber market reported falling offers, and the futures market weakened. The spot price of domestic rubber declined, and downstream buyers were cautious [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has rain - induced shortages, and Hainan's output increase is slow. The spot market is bearish, and processing plants are less willing to replenish raw materials. Qingdao Port's inventory shows a slight increase. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has declined due to maintenance, and the overall improvement space is limited next week [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 14300 - 14800, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12000 - 12600 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed down 8.18% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - grade rubber closed down 8.6% week - on - week [12]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the summary, only mentions the changes in the top 20 positions of Shanghai rubber and 20 - grade rubber [13][15]. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of August 1, the spread between September and January of Shanghai rubber was - 850, and the spread between September and October of 20 - grade rubber was - 45 [21]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 177,630 tons, a decrease of 4,390 tons from last week; 20 - grade rubber warehouse receipts were 39,716 tons, an increase of 2,318 tons from last week [26]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price and Shanghai Rubber Basis**: As of July 31, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **20 - grade Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of July 31, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 383 yuan/ton, an increase of 272 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 310 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Upstream**: As of July 31, the field glue price in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 54.3 (- 1) Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 47.7 (- 2.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 1, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 46.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11.4 US dollars/ton from last week. As of July 31, the glue price in Yunnan was 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [38][41]. - **Import**: In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [44]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons, an increase of 0.91%. The bonded area inventory was 75,800 tons, a decrease of 2.70%; the general trade inventory was 564,600 tons, an increase of 1.42%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.14 percentage points [48]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production**: As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 279,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.76%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.62%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 407,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.34% [54]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - truck Sales)**: In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% and a year - on - year increase of about 42%. Cumulatively, from January to July this year, China's heavy - truck market sold about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [57].

「 2025.08.01」 尿素市场周报 瑞达期货研究院 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 3 行情回顾：本周国内尿素市场弱势下行，截止本周四山东中小颗粒主流出厂下跌至1720-1810元/ 吨，均价环比下跌60元/吨。 行情展望：近期部分装置检修结束，国内尿素日产量小幅增加，下周可能3家企业装置计划停车， 2-3家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，产量减少的概率较大。国内农业需求处于 季节性淡季，需求继续走弱。当前逐步进入秋季肥生产阶段，复合肥工业需求逢低适当采购，复 合肥企业开工率稳中有升但开工提升缓慢，对尿素刚需偏少，下游工厂多逢低少量采购为主。国 内尿素需求走弱，出口对接不及预期，工厂新单成交放缓，出货流向同步减少，本周国内尿素企 业库存增加，虽然复合肥适当补仓但支撑有限，短期尿素企业库存仍有累库趋势。 策略建议： UR2509合约短线建议在1690-1770区间交易。 「 期货市场情况」 尿素期货价格走势 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market is shifting from sentiment-driven to reality-checking, and rebar may enter a range-bound consolidation. It is recommended to conduct short-term trading on the RB2510 contract, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. - In the consumer off-season, the apparent demand for rebar has declined, inventory has increased, and steel prices have faced downward pressure. It is suggested to buy slightly out-of-the-money put options [61]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of August 1st, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3203 yuan/ton (-153), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3390 yuan/ton (-100) [7]. - Rebar production decreased slightly to 211.06 million tons (-0.9) [7]. - In the consumer off-season, the apparent demand declined. The current period's apparent demand was 203.41 million tons (-13.17), a year - on - year decrease of 12.21 million tons [7]. - Factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory rose. The total rebar inventory was 546.29 million tons (+7.65), a year - on - year decrease of 196.08 million tons [7]. - The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 58.88 - percentage - point increase from last year [7]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, the US June PCE data accelerated, dampening the Fed's September rate - cut expectations; the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days. Domestically, there were new progress in China - US economic and trade talks, and the Politburo meeting required governance of disorderly competition and capacity management [9]. - Supply and demand: Rebar weekly production decreased slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 46.27% and an electric - arc furnace steel start - up rate of 74.21% for three consecutive weeks. Terminal demand was average, apparent demand declined, and inventory increased [9]. - Cost: Coking coal prices fluctuated from continuous limit - up to limit - down, and iron ore prices declined, weakening cost support [9]. - Technical: The RB2510 contract decreased in volume, with the daily K - line testing the support around MA20 (3200). The MACD indicator showed a high - level death cross of DIFF and DEA, and the red bar shrank [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures prices were under pressure and weakened this week. The RB2510 contract was weaker than the RB2601 contract, with a spread of - 54 yuan/ton on the 1st, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/ton [11][15]. - Rebar warehouse receipts decreased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. On August 1st, the warehouse receipt volume was 85034 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2993 tons; the net short position was 84955 contracts, an increase of 93791 contracts from the previous week [17][21]. - Spot prices decreased this week, and the basis strengthened. On August 1st, the spot price of Hangzhou rebar was 3390 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3405 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan/ton. The basis on the 1st was 187 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 73 yuan/ton [23][27]. 3.3 Upstream Market - This week, the spot price of iron ore decreased, while that of coke increased. On August 1st, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane powder ore in Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week decrease of 11 yuan/dry ton; the spot price of first - class metallurgical coke in Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [29][33]. - The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased this period, and port inventory decreased. From July 21st - 27th, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 ports was 2319.7 million tons, a decrease of 192.1 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14222.01 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 173.67 million tons [35][38]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory declined. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48% (-0.13%); coke daily output was 51.83 (-0.09), and coke inventory was 46.52 (-3.6) [40][42]. 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply Side - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 8318 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the output was 51483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [44][46]. - The weekly rebar production decreased. On August 1st, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from last week; the weekly rebar production of 139 building material production enterprises on July 31st was 211.06 million tons, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from last week [47][49]. - The electric - arc furnace steel start - up rate increased. On August 1st, the average start - up rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills was 74.21%, a 2.18 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [50][52]. - The total rebar inventory increased. On July 31st, the in - factory inventory of 137 building material production enterprises was 162.15 million tons, a decrease of 3.52 million tons from last week; the inventory in 35 major cities was 384.14 million tons, an increase of 11.17 million tons from last week [53][55]. 3.4.2 Demand Side - From January to June 2025, the new housing start - up area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 4.6% year - on - year [56][58]. 3.5 Options Market - In the consumer off - season, the apparent demand for rebar declined, inventory increased, and steel prices faced downward pressure. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, short - term trading is recommended. This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher. The 09 - contract closed at 9524 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton from the previous week. The current growth of Canadian rapeseed is still in the "weather - dominated" stage. The recent weather in Canada is favorable, and the resumption of rapeseed trade between China and Australia adds long - term supply pressure. High - frequency data shows that palm oil production in Malaysia increased in July while exports declined, and palm oil stocks are expected to continue to accumulate. However, Indonesia's exports have increased significantly, and its inventory is at a low level. News from the biodiesel sectors in the US and Indonesia is positive for the oil market. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively abundant, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills remains high. But the oil mill's operating rate has decreased, and the supply pressure in the third quarter has reduced [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely. The 09 - contract closed at 2675 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The US soybean's good rate is at a high level in the same period, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The new round of China - US economic and trade talks has no major breakthrough. In China, the operating rate of oil mills is relatively high, and soybean meal stocks continue to accumulate, suppressing the price of the meal market. There is an expectation of a decline in pig inventory, and the government emphasizes the reduction of soybean meal substitution, reducing demand expectations. However, the uncertainty of purchases in the fourth quarter supports the long - term market. For rapeseed meal itself, the arrival of rapeseed in the near - term is less, reducing supply pressure, and the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is seasonally increasing. But the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Rapeseed Oil**: The 09 - contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9524 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton from the previous week. Short - term trading is recommended. The weather in Canada is favorable for rapeseed growth, and the resumption of China - Australia trade adds supply pressure. High - frequency data on palm oil is mixed, and in China, the off - season consumption and high inventory pressure are countered by reduced production pressure and fewer third - quarter purchases [8][9]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 09 - contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2675 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. The US soybean situation is good, and in China, high oil - mill operating rates, expected pig - inventory decline, and substitution policies reduce demand, but fourth - quarter purchase uncertainty and seasonal demand support the market [11][12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed down, with a total position of 189,113 lots, down 21,670 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated widely, with a total position of 419,679 lots, down 63,829 lots from the previous week [17]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures increased, and those of rapeseed meal futures decreased [24]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 3,487 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 1,200 lots [29]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,680 yuan/ton, up from last week, and the basis is + 66 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,600 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis is - 75 yuan/ton [37][43]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is + 58 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal is + 266 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [49]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The 09 - contract ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.56, and the average spot price ratio is 3.688 [53]. - **Price Spread between Oils and Meals**: The 09 - contract spread of rapeseed oil to soybean oil is 1,250 yuan/ton and has narrowed this week. The 09 - contract spread of rapeseed oil to palm oil is 614 yuan/ton and has widened this week. The 09 - contract spread of soybean meal to rapeseed meal is 335 yuan/ton, and the spot spread is 280 yuan/ton [62][68]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Rapeseed - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import**: As of July 25, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in August, September, and October 2025 are 490,000 tons, 530,000 tons, and 395,000 tons respectively [74]. - **Import and Pressing Profit**: As of July 31, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed is + 475 yuan/ton [78]. - **Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 30th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills is 72,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate this week is 17.61% [82]. - **Monthly Import Volume**: In June 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 184,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 150,900 tons [86]. 3.3.2 Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side Inventory and Import**: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China is 786,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.21%. In June 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 150,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67% and a month - on - month increase of 39,100 tons [90]. - **Demand - Side Consumption and Production**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 476,900 tons, and the catering revenue is 470.76 billion yuan [94]. - **Demand - Side Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China is 116,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.24% [98]. 3.3.3 Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side Inventory**: As of the end of the 30th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China is 17,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 54.55% [102]. - **Supply - Side Import Volume**: In June 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 270,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.17% and a month - on - month increase of 75,600 tons [106]. - **Demand - Side Feed Production**: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2,762,100 tons [110]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis As of August 1, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 21.37%, a decrease of 1.95% from the previous week, and it is at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [114].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The iron ore market may enter a period of range - bound and weakening. The market's optimistic sentiment has faded, and the iron ore futures price is under pressure to decline. It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options [7][51] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights 3.1.1 Price and Market Conditions - As of August 1, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 783 (-19.5) yuan/ton, and the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 821 (-11) yuan/dry ton [5] - The total global iron ore shipments increased by 918,000 tons week - on - week. From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, and the shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.559 million tons, an increase of 2039,000 tons week - on - week [5] - The arrivals at 47 ports decreased by 1.921 million tons. From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons week - on - week [5] - The daily average hot metal output was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 15,200 tons week - on - week and an increase of 40,900 tons year - on - year [5] - As of August 1, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 1.7367 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.2687 million tons week - on - week [5] - The profitability rate of steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 58.88 percentage points year - on - year [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macroscopically, overseas, the US PCE data in June accelerated, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September was dampened again; the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended by 90 days. Domestically, there were new progress in Sino - US economic and trade talks, and the Politburo meeting required the governance of disorderly competition and capacity management in key industries [7] - In terms of supply and demand, the shipments from Australia and Brazil continued to increase, the arrivals and domestic port inventories declined; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills remained flat, and the hot metal output continued to decline slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons [7] - Technically, the I2509 contract of iron ore fluctuated downward, with the daily K - line under pressure below the MA5 moving average, and it tested the support near MA20 (775) in the short term; the MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA adjusted downward, and the green bar expanded [7] - It is recommended that the I2509 contract may enter a range - bound situation. Short - term trading is advisable, and attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract adjusted downward and was weaker than the I2601 contract. On the 1st, the spread was 26 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton week - on - week [13] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On August 1, the warehouse receipt volume of iron ore at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3600 lots, an increase of 200 lots week - on - week [19] - On August 1, the net position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was a net short of 20,512 lots, a decrease of 4651 lots compared with the previous week [19] 3.2.3 Spot Price - On August 1, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden powder ore at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/dry ton week - on - week [25] - This week, the spot price of iron ore was higher than the futures price. On the 1st, the basis was 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Shipments and Arrivals - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, an increase of 918,000 tons week - on - week. The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.559 million tons, an increase of 2.039 million tons week - on - week [29] - From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons week - on - week; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 22.405 million tons, a decrease of 1.307 million tons week - on - week; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 11.573 million tons, a decrease of 2.319 million tons week - on - week [29] 3.3.2 Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 1.7367 million tons week - on - week; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.1791 million tons, a decrease of 1.142 million tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore was 61.0885 million tons, a decrease of 2.004 million tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 51.9207 million tons, an increase of 0.5247 million tons; the inventory of traded ore was 90.4245 million tons, a decrease of 1.4112 million tons [33] - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.2687 million tons week - on - week; the current daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 2.9946 million tons, a decrease of 0.0164 million tons week - on - week; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.09 days, an increase of 0.58 days week - on - week [33] 3.3.3 Inventory Availability and Shipping Index - As of July 30, the average available days of imported iron ore inventory of large and medium - sized steel mills in China were 21 days, a flat week - on - week [36] - On July 31, the BDI shipping index was 2003, a decrease of 254 week - on - week [36] 3.3.4 Import and Mine Capacity Utilization - In June 2025, China's imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 105.948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%; from January to June, the imports were 592.205 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39] - As of July 25, the capacity utilization rate of the sample of 266 mines nationwide was 64.48%, an increase of 0.68% compared with the previous period; the average daily output of fine powder was 406,800 tons, an increase of 43,000 tons week - on - week; the inventory was 410,000 tons, a decrease of 44,500 tons week - on - week [39] 3.3.5 Domestic Ore Production - In June 2025, China's raw iron ore output was 88.97 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% [42] - In June, the output of iron fine powder of 433 iron mines nationwide was 23.304 million tons, a decrease of 0.762 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.2%; from January to June, the cumulative output was 137.753 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 11.932 million tons, a decrease of 8.0% [42] 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production and Steel Trade - In June 2025, China's crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, the crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% [45] - In June 2025, China exported 9.678 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.9 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, China imported 0.47 million tons of steel, a decrease of 0.011 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; from January to June, the cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% [45] 3.4.2 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Output - On August 1, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, flat week - on - week, and the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points week - on - week [48] - On August 1, the average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4071 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons week - on - week, an increase of 4.09 million tons year - on - year [48] 3.5 Option Market - It is recommended to buy slightly out - of - the - money put options as the iron ore port inventory is declining, the hot metal output is running at a high level, but the optimistic sentiment has faded, and the sharp decline of coking coal has led to the weakening of the black - related sector, and iron ore may enter a range - bound and weakening situation [51]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.8.1」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格小幅下行，主力合约EC2510收跌6.98%，其余合约收跌2-4%不等。最新SCFIS欧线 结算运价指数为2400.50，较上周回落21.40点，环比下行0.9%，现货指标回落。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为 2316.56，较上周回落83.94点，环比下行3.5%，现货指标持续回落。美国总统特朗普宣布8月1日起对进口半成品铜等 产品征收50%关税。此外，特朗普还签署了行政命令，对巴西加征40%关税，使总关税额达到50%；对来自印度的商品 征收25%的关税。一系列关税措施进一步加剧全球贸易局势不确定性，推高市场对贸易冲突再度升级的预期。7月标普 全球美国PMI录得年内最快增速，Q2 GDP年化增速大幅超出市场预期，加之美联储FOMC会议释放边际转鹰信号，强调 未来关税对于通胀走势的不 ...