Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The egg market has seen the futures price decline again this week. The current high egg - laying hen inventory and the pressure from newly - opened egg - laying hens lead to sufficient egg supply. The spot market price is continuously below expectations. However, high temperatures in many regions have reduced the egg - laying rate of hens, alleviating short - term supply pressure. Terminal demand is gradually picking up, and there is still an expectation of price increase among farmers. Affected by the bearish sentiment in the commodity market and high inventory, the near - month contracts are weakly adjusted, while the far - month contracts are significantly more resistant to decline. The report suggests a light - position trial of going long on far - month contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: This week, the egg 09 contract closed at 3484 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 144 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week [8]. - **Outlook**: High inventory and low - expected spot prices coexist with reduced egg - laying rates due to high temperatures and improving demand. Near - month contracts are weak, and far - month contracts are more resistant [8]. - **Strategy**: Light - position trial of going long on far - month contracts [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: The egg futures 09 contract declined again. The position volume was 226,040 lots, a decrease of 13,679 lots from the previous week. The net position of the top 20 was - 37,010, with a slight increase in net short position compared to last week [14]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the registered egg warehouse receipts were 22 [18]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was 3173 yuan/500 kilograms, a decrease of 214 yuan/500 kilograms from the previous week. The basis between the active 09 contract futures price and the spot average price was - 311 yuan/ton [24]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of eggs was - 135 yuan/500 kilograms, at a relatively low level in the same period [28]. - **Related Commodity Spot Prices**: As of July 31, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was 20.45 yuan/kg, and the average wholesale price of 28 kinds of monitored vegetables was 4.41 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply Side**: As of June 30, 2025, the national egg - laying hen inventory index was 111.91, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The national new - chick index was 76.07, a month - on - month decrease of 28.76% [40]. - **Egg - laying Hen Elimination**: As of June 30, 2025, the national eliminated egg - laying hen index was 104.09, a month - on - month decrease of 4.22%. The national elimination age of hens was 501 days [45]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was 2920 yuan/ton [49]. - **Feed Price and Breeding Profit**: As of July 25, 2025, the egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.06 yuan/hen, and the average price of egg - laying hen compound feed was 2.72 yuan/kg [56]. - **Egg - laying Hen Chick and Eliminated Hen Prices**: As of July 25, 2025, the average price of egg - laying hen chicks in the main production areas was 3.88 yuan/chick, and the average price of eliminated hens was 11.28 yuan/kg [62]. - **Egg Exports**: In May 2025, China's egg export volume was 12,711.37 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.87% and a month - on - month decrease of 81.14 tons [66]. 3.4 Representative Company The report mentions the price - earnings ratio change of Xiaoming Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For corn, the US corn has a high excellent rate and good output prospects, pressuring international corn prices. In the domestic market, Northeast trade inventories are low, and feed - using enterprises only make rigid - demand purchases. Wheat substitution, import corn auctions, and deferred pick - up policies also restrict the corn market. Corn futures prices are weak this week [8][10]. - For corn starch, due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years, reducing supply pressure. However, downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Corn starch futures prices are oscillating at a low level recently [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Corn** - **Strategy**: Trade short - term [9]. - **Market review**: This week, corn futures oscillated and closed lower. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2297 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - **Market outlook**: As of July 27, 2025, the US corn excellent rate was 73%. In the domestic market, Northeast trade inventories are low, and feed - using enterprises make rigid - demand purchases. Wheat substitution, import corn auctions, and deferred pick - up policies restrict the market. The overall trading is cautious, and the futures price is still weak [10]. - **Corn Starch** - **Strategy**: Participate short - term [13]. - **Market review**: Dalian corn starch futures oscillated narrowly. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2668 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous week [14]. - **Market outlook**: Due to continuous losses, the industry's operating rate is low, reducing supply pressure. But downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply - demand is still loose. As of July 30, the national corn starch inventory was 129.3 tons, a weekly decrease of 1.37%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. The futures price oscillates at a low level [14]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - Corn futures' September contract oscillated and closed down, with a total position of 746,716 lots, a decrease of 105,390 lots from last week. Corn starch futures' September contract oscillated narrowly, with a total position of 158,356 lots, a decrease of 32,163 lots from last week [20]. - **Top Twenty Net Position Changes** - The top twenty net position of corn futures was - 20,885 this week, compared to - 12,000 last week, with an increase in net short positions. The top twenty net position of starch futures was - 18,086 this week, compared to - 16,822 last week, also with an increase in net short positions [27]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 153,041 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 0 lots [33]. - **Spot Price and Basis Trends** - As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active September contract and the spot average price was + 107 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2900 yuan/ton, remaining stable this week. The basis between the September contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 182 yuan/ton [38][44]. - **Futures Inter - monthly Spread Changes** - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 84 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 87 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [50]. - **Futures Spread Changes** - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn was 371 yuan/ton. In the 31st week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan/ton from last week [59]. - **Substitute Spread Changes** - As of July 31, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2440.5 yuan/ton, and that of corn was 2404.02 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 36.48 yuan/ton. In the 31st week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 140 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton from last week [64]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply Side** - As of July 25, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 88.2 tons, a decrease of 5.8 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 0.7 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 210.6 tons, a weekly decrease of 10.3 tons, and the shipping volume was 39.3 tons, a weekly increase of 5.3 tons [54]. - In June 2025, China's ordinary corn imports were 160,000 tons, a decrease of 760,000 tons (82.61%) from the same period last year and a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous month [72]. - As of July 31, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 30.58 days, a decrease of 0.29 days from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.83% [76]. - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the national pig inventory was 424.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The inventory of breeding sows was 40.43 million, an increase of 10,000 from the previous month and 103.7% of the normal reserve of 39 million [80]. - As of July 25, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 62.16 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 71.39 yuan/head [84]. - As of July 31, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 67 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit was - 435 yuan/ton in Henan, - 612 yuan/ton in Jilin, and - 193 yuan/ton in Heilongjiang [88]. - **Corn Starch** - **Supply Side** - As of July 30, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 3.797 million tons, a decrease of 5.19% [92]. - From July 24 - 30, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 545,100 tons, an increase of 43,600 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 267,800 tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from last week; the operating rate was 51.76%, an increase of 6.3% from last week. As of July 30, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.293 million tons, a weekly decrease of 1.37%, a monthly increase of 0.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14% [96]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - As of August 1, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 9.76%, a decrease of 1.14% from 10.9% last week. The implied volatility oscillated and declined this week, being at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [99].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass dropped significantly due to the fading of the market's anti - involution sentiment after the Political Bureau meeting and the change in policy expectations for the second half of the year. The previous speculative upward trend has mostly reversed. However, the fundamentals are gradually taking effect. Soda ash supply is expected to remain loose, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face pressure. For glass, the probability of a rebound next week is high, and the subsequent market trading will be more about policy expectations [6]. - It is recommended to trade the SA2509 contract in the range of 1180 - 1280, with a stop - loss range of 1150 - 1300. For the FG2509 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range of 1080 - 1200, with a stop - loss range of 1050 - 1250 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the soda ash futures dropped 12.78%, and the glass futures dropped 19.09%. The decline was mainly due to emotional trading. The fundamentals are gradually taking over. Glass may achieve a fundamental reversal first and repair the excessive decline next week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, the supply is still loose, the demand will continue to fall, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, the probability of a rebound next week is high, and the subsequent market trading will focus on policy expectations [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade the SA2509 contract in the 1180 - 1280 range with a stop - loss of 1150 - 1300. Operate the FG2509 contract in the 1080 - 1200 range with a stop - loss of 1050 - 1250 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: This week, both soda ash and glass futures prices declined [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The soda ash spot price fell, and the glass spot price rose. The basis of both strengthened, and the soda ash - glass spread also strengthened and is expected to continue next week [13][19][24]. - **Specific Data**: As of July 31, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 185 yuan/ton; the soda ash basis was - 2 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1184 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the glass basis was 67 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash spread was 130 yuan/ton [17][22][26]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production declined. As of July 31, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 80.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75%, and the weekly production was 699,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.32% [28][32]. - **Profitability**: This week, the profits of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises increased. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash by the combined soda process was 101 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 83 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 87 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 150.36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.69%; the profit using coal - gas as fuel was 138.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.14%; the profit using petroleum coke as fuel was 137.71 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 157.78% [34][36][39]. - **Glass Production**: One more glass production line was cold - repaired this week, but the overall production remained stable at a low level. As of July 31, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 222 in production, and 74 cold - repaired. The national float glass production was 1.1152 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%, and it is expected to remain low next week [41][43]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: This week, the operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass declined. As of July 31, 2025, the capacity utilization of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 66.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.37%, and the daily melting volume was 86,500 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 1200 tons/day, with a high probability of further decline next week [45][47]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises decreased due to reduced production, and the inventory of glass enterprises also decreased. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.7956 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.69%, and the total glass inventory was 59.499 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 3.87% [49][53]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of domestic glass increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days [55][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - side support for hot - rolled coils has weakened, causing the futures prices to fall from high levels. The HC2510 contract may enter a range - bound consolidation, and short - term trading is recommended with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights 3.1.1 Market Review - As of August 1st, the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3401 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton; the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coil was 3480 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton - Hot - rolled coil production increased from a decline, reaching 322.79 million tons, up 5.3 million tons - Apparent demand rebounded to 3.2 million tons, up 476,000 tons from the previous period and down 130,000 tons year - on - year - Both factory and social inventories increased, with the total inventory rising to 3.4795 million tons, up 27,900 tons and down 843,600 tons year - on - year - The steel mill profitability rate was 65.37%, up 1.73 percentage points from last week and 58.88 percentage points from last year [7] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - Macro aspect: Overseas, the US June PCE data accelerated, dampening the Fed's September rate - cut expectations; the US - Mexico tariff agreement was extended for 90 days. Domestically, there were new progress in China - US economic and trade talks, and the Politburo meeting required governance of disorderly competition and capacity management in key industries - Supply - demand aspect: Weekly hot - rolled coil production increased from a decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.46% remaining at a relatively high level; total inventory continued to increase slightly, and apparent demand was adjusted up to 3.2 million tons - Cost aspect: Coking coal prices dropped from continuous limit - up to limit - down, hitting market sentiment, and iron ore prices also declined, weakening cost - side support - Technical aspect: The HC2510 contract rose and then fell, with the daily K - line showing three consecutive negative lines and being under pressure below the 5 - day moving average; the MACD indicator showed a high - level death cross of DIFF and DEA, and the red column shrank - Strategy suggestion: The anti - involution positive expectations in the macro - aspect are fading; in the industrial aspect, hot - rolled coil production remains at a relatively high level, terminal demand is resilient, apparent demand rebounds, but furnace material prices are adjusting downward, weakening cost - side support. The HC2510 contract may enter a range - bound consolidation, and short - term trading is recommended with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price Adjustment - This week, the HC2510 contract adjusted downward. It outperformed the HC2601 contract, with the spread on the 1st being - 2 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton week - on - week [15] 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On August 1st, the hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts at the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 57,174 tons, down 1,188 tons week - on - week - On August 1st, the net short position of the top 20 in the hot - rolled coil futures contract was 108,966 lots, an increase of 45,704 lots from last week [21] 3.2.3 Spot Price Adjustment - On August 1st, the spot price of 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3480 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the national average price was 3482 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton week - on - week - This week, the hot - rolled coil spot price was stronger than the futures price, with the basis on the 1st being 79 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan/ton week - on - week [25] 3.3 Upstream Market 3.3.1 Furnace Material Price Changes - On August 1st, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 821 yuan/dry ton, down 11 yuan/dry ton week - on - week - On August 1st, the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1520 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week [32] 3.3.2 Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From July 21st - 27th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.009 million tons, up 918,000 tons; the Australia - Brazil iron ore shipment volume was 27.559 million tons, up 2.039 million tons - From July 21st - 27th, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 47 ports was 23.197 million tons, down 1.921 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 22.405 million tons, down 1.307 million tons; at the six northern ports, it was 11.573 million tons, down 2.319 million tons - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, down 1.7367 million tons; the average daily clearance volume was 3.1791 million tons, down 114,200 tons. In terms of components, Australian ore inventory was 61.0885 million tons, down 2.004 million tons; Brazilian ore inventory was 51.9207 million tons, up 524,700 tons; trade ore inventory was 90.4245 million tons, down 1.4112 million tons - On July 31st, the billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 1.1102 million tons, up 41,000 tons week - on - week and 141,100 tons year - on - year [37][41] 3.3.3 Coking Industry Changes - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 73.48%, down 0.13%; the daily coke output was 518,300 tons, down 90 tons; coke inventory was 465,200 tons, down 36,000 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 8.4406 million tons, up 28,500 tons; the available coking coal days were 12.3 days, up 0.07 days [45] 3.4 Industry Situation 3.4.1 Supply - Side Changes - In June 2025, China's crude steel production was 83.18 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%; from January to June, it was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0% - In June 2025, China's steel exports were 9.678 million tons, down 900,000 tons from the previous month and 8.5% month - on - month; from January to June, cumulative steel exports were 58.147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. In June, steel imports were 470,000 tons, down 11,000 tons from the previous month and 2.3% month - on - month; from January to June, cumulative steel imports were 3.023 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.4% - On August 1st, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, unchanged from last week and up 2.18 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, down 0.57 percentage points from last week and up 1.37 percentage points year - on - year; the daily hot - metal output was 2.4071 million tons, down 15,200 tons from last week and up 40,900 tons year - on - year - On July 31st, the weekly hot - rolled coil production of 37 enterprises was 322.79 million tons, up 530,000 tons from last week and down 66,000 tons year - on - year - On July 31st, the hot - rolled coil inventory in 37 enterprises was 793,000 tons, up 1,300 tons from last week and down 125,100 tons year - on - year; the social inventory in 33 cities was 2.6865 million tons, up 14,900 tons from last week and down 718,500 tons year - on - year; the total hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.4795 million tons, up 27,900 tons from last week and down 843,600 tons year - on - year [48][51][56] 3.4.2 Demand - Side Changes - In June 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% and 13.8%. From January to June, automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4% - From January to June 2025, cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 163.2961 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; for household refrigerators, it was 50.6416 million units, unchanged year - on - year; for household washing machines, it was 58.6036 million units, a year - on - year increase of 10.3% [59]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.01」 工业硅多晶硅市场周报 下游价格开始复苏，双硅情绪炒作结束 研究员:黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾： 本周工业硅下跌12.6%，本周工业硅在反内卷会议情绪退却下，期货价格高位震荡，硅料收储消息暂时被 证伪，工业硅基本面相对于多晶硅来说更为恶化，目前多数企业开启套保，短期市场受到了压制，期货价格下跌幅度 超过工业硅，预计后续套保企业增多，期货价格有望进一步下行，多晶硅方面本周下跌3.85%，本周受到反内卷情绪消 退影响，价格高位回落，但仍有反复，但并未出现大幅下跌表现，多晶硅目前依旧在演绎产能兼并重组的消息刺激， 后续有望消息刺激下，维持高位盘整。 u 行情展望：工业硅方面，本周供应端情况较为复杂。西南产区丰水期复产进程正在加速，云南、四川地区已有多家企 业陆续开炉，预计下周新增产能释放，较当前水平提升。这一增量 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile downward trend, with the main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead futures falling by 1.3%. The supply increased while the demand was insufficient, leading to a slight decline. Powell did not cut interest rates as expected, suppressing the overseas fundamentals and weakening the overseas demand further. Future trading will depend on domestic anti - involution and capacity reduction, as well as the effective recovery of US demand. The challenge to the Fed's independence may be an unexpected factor in the future [4]. - The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased due to the decline in lead prices, resulting in an increase in production. The primary lead operating rate remained stronger than that of secondary lead, and its by - product revenue was stable. However, some primary lead smelters adjusted their production decisions as lead prices fluctuated. For secondary lead, the supply of waste batteries was tight, leading to low confidence among smelters and a tight overall supply. The resumption of production was slow due to cost inversion. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery industry, the main consumer of lead, was approaching the traditional peak season. But in reality, the spot trading was dull, and downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The slow inventory clearance of dealers inhibited the battery factories' enthusiasm for production. If the wait - and - see sentiment continued, the demand for lead in the lead - acid battery industry would not improve significantly next week, and the overall demand would remain weak. The inventory increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts also increased, indicating a slowdown in overall demand. Although the lead - acid battery industry was approaching the peak season, the demand had not effectively driven the inventory reduction. If the demand failed to pick up next week, the domestic inventory might continue to accumulate, suppressing the lead price. It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai lead [4]. - The main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16400 - 16800, with a stop - loss range of 16200 - 17300. Attention should be paid to the operation rhythm and risk control [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures showed a volatile downward trend, with the main contract 2509 of Shanghai lead futures falling by 1.3%. The supply increased while the demand was insufficient, leading to a slight decline. Powell did not cut interest rates as expected, suppressing the overseas fundamentals and weakening the overseas demand further [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The operating rate of primary lead smelters increased, and production rose. The primary lead operating rate remained stronger than that of secondary lead, and its by - product revenue was stable. Some primary lead smelters adjusted production decisions. For secondary lead, the supply of waste batteries was tight, resulting in a tight overall supply and slow resumption of production. The lead - acid battery industry was approaching the peak season, but the demand was weak due to the wait - and - see attitude of downstream enterprises. The inventory increased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts also increased. If the demand did not improve, the domestic inventory might accumulate, suppressing the lead price [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai lead. The main contract 2509 will fluctuate in the range of 16400 - 16800, with a stop - loss range of 16200 - 17300 [4]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Price and Ratio**: The domestic futures price of Shanghai lead was flat compared with last week, while the foreign futures price declined, and the ratio increased. As of July 31, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $1965.5 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active contract of lead was 16955 yuan per ton. As of July 25, 2025, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.62 [6][10]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium strengthened, while the foreign premium weakened. As of July 31, 2025, the Chinese futures premium was 210 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - $40.86 per ton [12][15]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Both foreign and domestic lead inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts also increased, indicating a weakening overall demand for Shanghai lead. As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 6.98 tons, an increase of 0.04 tons; the total LME lead inventory was 276,500 tons, an increase of 10,225 tons; the number of warehouse receipts for Shanghai lead was 62,360 tons, an increase of 2,401 tons [29][33]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - Primary Lead**: The operating rate and production of primary lead enterprises increased due to stable processing fees. As of July 24, 2025, the average operating rate of primary lead in major producing areas was 73.80%, an increase of 2.96% from last week; the weekly production of primary lead was 33,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons from last week [18][19]. - **Supply - Secondary Lead**: The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises increased, but it was still in the off - season, with few waste battery scrapings, and the capacity was difficult to recover. As of July 24, 2025, the domestic production of secondary lead in major producing areas was 19,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 46.49%, a month - on - month increase of 5.22% [24][27]. - **Supply - Secondary Lead Enterprises**: The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged. As of June 30, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [35][37]. - **Supply - Lead Trade**: The export of refined lead was obvious, but the export growth rate declined. The import of refined lead increased significantly. There was an arbitrage opportunity as the overseas lead ingot price was higher than the domestic price and the domestic processing fee was low. In June 2025, the export volume of refined lead was 3,183 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.69% and a year - on - year increase of 133.69%. The import volume of refined lead was 817 tons, and the import volume of lead alloy was 10,657 tons. From January to June 2025, the total export volume of refined lead and lead products was 34,748 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 29.89%; the total import volume was 75,013 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 152.1% [39][41]. - **Demand - Lead Concentrate Processing Fees**: The domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat, while the import processing fee declined, with little impact on domestic production. As of July 25, 2025, the national average processing fee for lead concentrate was 540 yuan per ton, and the average monthly import processing fee for lead concentrate (Pb60) was - $60 per thousand tons [44][46]. - **Demand - Automobile Sales**: The growth rate of automobile production and sales decreased. In June 2025, domestic automobile sales were 2.904 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.1% and a year - on - year increase of 13.8%. In the first half of 2025, Chinese - brand passenger cars sold 9.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 25%, accounting for 68.5% of the total passenger car sales. Among major foreign brands, the sales of the Korean brand increased slightly, while the sales of the other four major brands decreased slightly. The mainstream price range of new - energy passenger cars was higher than that of traditional fuel passenger cars [51]. - **Demand - Batteries and Chargers**: The price of lead - acid batteries remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of June 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4,096,000. As of July 31, 2025, the average price of 48V/20AH waste lead - acid batteries in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per set [53][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose, with a weekly increase of 4.55%. The decline in sample - point inventory, increased arrivals in the sales area, and downstream periodic replenishment supported the price increase of high - quality jujubes. The new - season jujube crop is in the critical fruit - setting period, and the market focuses on the weather in the production area. The estimated new - season jujube production is 56 - 62 million tons, a decrease compared to 2022 and 2024, but the reduction is less than that in 2023. Overall, the price increase of high - quality jujubes supports the firm operation of jujube futures prices, but the short - term driving force is limited due to the cooling of the weather theme [9][11]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of 4.55% [9][11]. - **Market Outlook**: As of the week of July 31, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51% and a year - on - year increase of 81.11%. The arrival of goods in the sales area increased, and downstream periodic replenishment supported the price increase of high - quality jujubes. The new - season jujube crop is in the critical fruit - setting period, and the weather risk has decreased as the maximum temperature in Xinjiang will drop in the next few days. The estimated new - season production is 56 - 62 million tons, a 5 - 10% decrease compared to 2022 and a 20 - 25% decrease compared to 2024 [9]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the impact of weather and the consumer end [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube futures rose this week, with a weekly increase of 4.55% [11]. - **Futures Positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 19,933 lots [16]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 9,188 [17]. - **Futures Spread**: As of this week, the spread between the 2509 and 2601 contracts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures was - 1,165 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujube and the main contract of jujube futures was - 940 yuan/ton [24]. - **New - Season Purchase Price**: As of August 1, 2025, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu was 4.8 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6 yuan/kg [27]. - **First - Grade Jujube Price**: As of August 1, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.45 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.40 yuan/jin [31]. - **Super - Grade Jujube Price**: As of August 1, 2025, the wholesale price of super - grade grey jujube in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.91 yuan/kg, and in Henan was 9.8 yuan/kg [33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Side - Inventory**: As of the week of July 31, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51% and a year - on - year increase of 81.11% [37]. - **Supply - Side - Production Forecast**: The jujube crop is growing well, and the jujube production in the 2024/25 season is expected to recover [42]. - **Demand - Side - Export Volume**: In June 2025, China's jujube export volume was 1,765,107 kg, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82%. From January to June, the cumulative export volume was 17,115,674 kg, a month - on - month increase of 11.50% [45]. - **Demand - Side - BOCE Trading**: This week, the order volume of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand was not traded [49]. 3.4 Option Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Option Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options of jujube this week is presented in the figure [51]. - **Stock Market - Haoxiangni**: The price - to - earnings ratio of Haoxiangni is presented in the figure [53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 2.43%. Internationally, the rainy season has brought good production prospects for major Asian sugar - producing countries, and strong production signs in Brazil have cast a shadow of loose supply on the raw sugar market. However, the lower - than - expected ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand from countries like Pakistan, the Philippines, and Iran provide some support. Domestically, the price difference between domestic and international markets has opened the profit window for out - of - quota imports, releasing import pressure. On the demand side, the hot summer has led to increased demand for food and beverage industries, and the seasonal consumption of cold drinks has recovered, supporting the price. Overall, the sugar market is expected to fluctuate due to the combination of peak domestic demand and increased imports and expected global supply [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch include consumption and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. International sugar market: The rainy season in Asia and strong production in Brazil lead to a supply - loose expectation, but lower ATR in Brazil's central - southern region and potential demand support prices. Domestic sugar market: The opening of the out - of - quota profit window releases import pressure, and the peak consumption season provides support. The overall market is expected to fluctuate [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: - The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract fluctuated this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.43%. As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 2.65% month - on - month to 198,761 contracts, and the non - commercial short - position increased by 0.86% month - on - month to 258,490 contracts. The non - commercial net position was - 59,729 contracts, a decrease of 14.65% month - on - month [8]. - The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures this week was 3,472 contracts, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 19,443 [21]. - **Spot Market**: - As of August 1, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,100 yuan/ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,900 yuan/ton [25]. - As of July 29, 2025, the estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Brazilian sugar was 5,761 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.89%; the in - quota price was 4,533 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.87%. The estimated import processing price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) of Thai sugar was 5,828 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.88%; the in - quota price was 4,585 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.88% [28]. - As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,427 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.26% from the previous week; the out - of - quota profit was 199 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.44% from the previous week. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.41% from the previous week; the out - of - quota profit was 132 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.42% from the previous week [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: - By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended. The total sugar production in China was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [38]. - As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons [42]. - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7% [46]. - **Demand Side**: - As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China were 8.1138 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00%, and the sugar sales ratio was 72.69%, a month - on - month increase of 11.45% [50]. - As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.61%, and the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.24% [55]. 3.4 Option Market - Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Sugar 2509 contract, but specific data is not described in text [56]. 3.5 Sugar Futures - Stock Correlation Market - The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not described in text [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term price of live pigs is dominated by the slaughter rhythm, with possible repeated fluctuations. It is expected that the slaughter volume will first decrease and then increase in the short term, and the price will fluctuate slightly weaker [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price declined, with the main contract dropping 2.29% weekly [6][10]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers may reduce the supply at the beginning of the month, but the supply may resume later as they may slaughter pigs at a lower weight. The demand has slightly recovered in some areas, and the slaughterhouse operation rate has slightly increased, but high temperatures still suppress consumers' willingness to buy pork, resulting in a limited increase. Overall, short - term prices are dominated by the slaughter rhythm and are expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price declined this week, with the main contract dropping 2.29% weekly [10]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 1, the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased, and there were 3000 futures warehouse receipts, an increase of 16 from last week [17]. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average live pig price was 14.23 yuan/kg this week, down 0.58 yuan/kg from last week and 5.51% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 32.72 yuan/kg, down 1.14 yuan/kg from last week and 3.85% from last month [28]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of July 24, the national average pork price was 25.37 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [32]. - **Pig - grain Ratio**: As of July 23, the pig - grain ratio was 6.16, down 0.07 from the previous week, below the break - even point [36]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In June, the inventory of breeding sows increased month - on - month, reaching 103.7% of the normal level. According to Mysteel data, the inventory of large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly [41]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the live pig inventory increased year - on - year. In June, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of large - scale and small and medium - sized farms increased month - on - month [44]. - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In June, the slaughter volume of large - scale farms increased month - on - month, while that of small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. The average slaughter weight decreased [47]. Industry Profit - **Live Pig and Poultry Farming Profit**: As of August 1, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 116.78 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 45.39 yuan/head. The profit of self - breeding and self - raising was 43.85 yuan/head, a decrease of 18.3 yuan/head. The profit of laying hens was a loss of 0.16 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 0.1 yuan/head, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was 0.19 yuan/head [52]. Domestic Market - **Pork Imports**: In the first six months of 2025, China imported a total of 540,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.88%, at a historically low level [53][57]. Substitute Products - **White - striped Chicken Price and Standard - Fat Price Difference**: As of August 1, the price of white - striped chicken was 13.70 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of July 31, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.41 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/kg from last week [60]. Feed Market - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of August 1, the price of soybean meal increased by 14.57 yuan/ton to 2977.71 yuan/ton, while the price of corn decreased by 5.09 yuan/ton to 2402.75 yuan/ton [66]. - **Feed Index and Spot Price**: As of August 1, the DCE pig feed cost index closed at 935.61, a decrease of 0.82% from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [70]. - **Feed Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly feed production was 2.9377 million tons, an increase of 175,600 tons month - on - month [75]. CPI - As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year [79]. Downstream Situation - **Slaughterhouse Operation**: In the 31st week, the slaughterhouse operation rate was 26.83%, an increase of 0.43 percentage points from last week. The fresh - sales rate decreased slightly, and the frozen - product storage rate increased slightly [82]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of June 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughterhouses decreased by 6.53% month - on - month. In June, the national catering revenue was 47.076 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [87]. Live Pig - related Stocks - The report mentions the stock trends of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific data is provided [88].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) declined with a weekly drop of about 4.13%, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) fell 3.09%. Internationally, due to poor US cotton export data and a stronger US dollar, the US cotton futures price has been falling. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, with no news about quotas yet, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched. However, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with spinning mills having no profit, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and more cautious raw material procurement. In terms of new crops, China's cotton planting area has increased in 2025, and the weather theme has cooled down. Overall, although the supply is tight before the new cotton is launched, the downstream demand is weak, the area and output of new crops are increasing, the weather theme has cooled down, and there are expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to risk control [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) dropped about 4.13% this week, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) declined 3.09% [7]. - **International Situation**: US cotton futures prices have been falling due to poor export data and a stronger US dollar. As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US 2024/25 market - year upland cotton export sales was 39,100 bales, a sharp drop from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in 2025/26 market - year upland cotton export sales was 71,700 bales [7]. - **Domestic Situation**: Cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before new cotton is launched, and there is no news about quotas. The textile industry is in a consumption off - season, spinning mills have no profit, the operating rate is declining, and raw material procurement is cautious. China's cotton planting area has increased in 2025, and the weather theme has cooled down [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The cotton 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies and pay attention to risk control [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 1.95%. As of July 22, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton was 64,278 contracts, a 0.54% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short - position was 91,528 contracts, a 2.82% increase; the CFTC net position of US cotton was - 27,250 contracts, a 8.64% decrease [10]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of the week ending July 24, the net increase in US 2024/25 market - year upland cotton export sales was 39,100 bales, a sharp drop from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The net increase in 2025/26 market - year upland cotton export sales was 71,700 bales. As of July 29, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.8 cents per pound, a 0.13% increase from the previous period [16]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2509) dropped about 4.13% this week, and the cotton yarn futures (2509) declined 3.09%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 18,064 contracts, and that in cotton yarn futures was 21 contracts. The cotton futures warehouse receipts were 8,807 contracts, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 89 contracts [21][26][31]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 1, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,260 yuan per ton. As of July 31, 2025, the CY index of OEC10s (air - flow yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton. As of August 1, 2025, the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,680 yuan per ton [38][50]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: This week, the spread between Zhengzhou cotton 9 - 1 contracts was - 200 yuan per ton, and the spread between cotton 3128B and cotton yarn C32S spot prices was 5,420 yuan per ton [35]. - **Futures Basis**: This week, the basis between the cotton 3128B price index and the Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract was + 1,675 yuan per ton, and the basis between the cotton yarn C32S spot price and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract was 940 yuan per ton [45]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Price**: As of July 30, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,616 yuan per ton, a 0.89% decrease from the previous period; the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,360 yuan per ton, a 0.62% decrease. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was 21,230 yuan per ton, a 0.09% decrease; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C21S was 20,195 yuan per ton, a 0.08% decrease; the import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:JC32S was 23,110 yuan per ton, a 0.04% decrease [53]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of July 30, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 1,110 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,854 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: As of June, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a 18.18% decrease from the previous period. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a 1.17% decrease from the previous period. In June 2025, China's cotton imports were about 30,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the cumulative cotton imports were 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. In June 2025, China's cotton yarn imports were 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative cotton yarn imports were 670,000 tons [60][64]. - **Mid - end Industry**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a 6.8% increase from the previous period, and the坯布 inventory was 35.46 days, a 7.81% increase from the previous period [68]. - **Terminal Consumption**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a 4.62% decrease from the previous period; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, a 12.44% increase from the previous period. As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles and textiles were 742.59 billion yuan, a 20.98% increase from the previous period; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 3.1%, a 6.06% decrease from the previous period [72][76]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - **Options Market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not mentioned [77]. - **Stock Market**: The report mentions the Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis data is provided [80].