Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of styrene is under pressure due to weak supply - demand. The futures price of the 08 contract is expected to be stronger than the spot price because the basis of the 08 contract is still relatively high. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around 7270 for EB2508. The supply side is expected to remain in a high - production state, the demand side has not improved, the total inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history and difficult to deplete, and the cost lacks support [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Futures trading volume (active: trading volume) of styrene (EB) is 420,738, with a daily increase of 125,804. The futures closing price (active contract) of styrene is 7,340 yuan/ton. The 9 - month contract closing price of styrene is 7,255 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan/ton. The futures holding volume (active: trading volume) of styrene (EB) decreased by 15,310. The net long position of the top 20 holders of styrene decreased by 4,506 to 18,033 hands. The short position of the top 20 holders of styrene increased by 7,432 to 411,972 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of styrene is 0 [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of styrene is 7,936 yuan/ton. The FOB South Korea intermediate price of styrene is 915 US dollars/ton. The CFR China intermediate price of styrene is 925 US dollars/ton. The mainstream prices in the northeast, south, north, and east regions are 7,750 yuan/ton, 7,850 yuan/ton, 7,705 yuan/ton, and 7,715 yuan/ton respectively, with the north and east regions decreasing by 5 yuan/ton and 10 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene is 821 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price is 831 US dollars/ton, the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price is 802 US dollars/ton, and the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton. The spot prices of pure benzene in the US Gulf, Taiwan, Rotterdam are 290 US cents/gallon, 735.83 US dollars/ton, and 779 US dollars/ton respectively. The market prices of pure benzene in the south, east, and north regions are 5,950 yuan/ton, 5,965 yuan/ton, and 5,860 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Industry Situation - The total styrene inventory in the country is 209,695 tons, an increase of 15,745 tons. The total inventory in the East China main port is 138,500 tons, an increase of 27,000 tons, and the trade inventory is 45,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons. The overall styrene production from July 4th to 10th was 362,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04%, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of styrene, EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber are 79.21% (down 0.82%), 51.06% (down 4.82%), 65% (down 0.04%), 51.1% (down 1.3%), 29%, and 73.08% (down 0.58%) respectively. From July 4th to 10th, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of styrene was 234,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9% [2]. Industry News - From July 4th to 10th, the overall production of Chinese styrene factories was 362,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04%, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 79.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of styrene was 234,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.9%. As of July 10th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 209,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that due to the resumption of production in previously overhauled units, the daily output of domestic urea has increased, and the short - term urea operating rate may remain high. As the agricultural demand season is approaching, only local agricultural top - dressing has a small amount of demand. The autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizer enterprises are good, leading to an increase in the operating rate and procurement. The operating rate of melamine has recovered, but weak downstream demand may limit its further increase. Recently, the shipment of urea factories varies significantly, and inventory changes are mixed. Last week, the overall inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, and some urea factories continued to execute previous export orders. However, this week, the industrial demand is expected to weaken further, the increase in agricultural demand is decreasing, and as the execution of previous export orders enters the later stage, the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down. The unexpectedly high urea tender price in India boosts the confidence of the domestic market. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the release time, quantity, and allocated enterprises of the second batch of urea export quotas. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1720 - 1750 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1731 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 201,388 lots, an increase of 3,396 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 24,407 lots, a decrease of 2,450 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 2,630, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1790, 1840, 1840, 1810, and 1850 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 20, 10, 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the Chinese main port were 427.5 and 410 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory was 48.9 tons (weekly), an increase of 4.9 tons; the enterprise inventory was 96.77 tons (weekly), a decrease of 5.08 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises was 85.26% (weekly), an increase of 0.94%; the daily output of urea was 197,400 tons (weekly), an increase of 2,200 tons [2]. - The export volume of urea was 0, unchanged; the monthly output of urea was 6,031,340 tons, a decrease of 261,890 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 29.83% (weekly), an increase of 0.58%; the operating rate of melamine was 62.56% (weekly), a decrease of 0.43% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer was 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine (using externally - purchased urea) was - 646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 216 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 416.82 tons, a decrease of 64.08 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons from the previous week, a 4.99% decrease [2]. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.94%, a 0.55% increase [2]. - As of July 10, the weekly output of Chinese urea was 138.18 tons, an increase of 1.53 tons from the previous week, a 1.12% increase; the average daily output was 19.74 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons [2]. 4. Suggested Focus The report suggests paying attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in a stage of relatively high supply and stable demand. The previous optimistic sentiment in the market has cooled, and it is gradually returning to the fundamentals. It is recommended to trade with a light - position, expecting a slightly stronger and volatile trend [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market has a situation of a slight increase in supply and weak demand. Affected by the off - season and trade uncertainties, the upward space for the price of Shanghai aluminum may be limited [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum, the cost - support logic is relatively strong. In the short term, the upward space for the price of cast aluminum may be limited [2]. 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,430 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,165 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spread between this month and next month's contracts for Shanghai aluminum decreased by 5 yuan, while that for alumina increased by 73 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The positions of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy changed, with decreases in Shanghai aluminum and alumina and an increase in cast aluminum alloy. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 5,275 tons, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory on the SHFE increased by 8,565 tons [2]. - **Other Indicators**: The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum increased by 703 hands, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.02 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum and Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum increased, while the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot remained unchanged. The spot price of alumina increased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 500 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 25 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina decreased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum discount decreased by 2.17 dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The production of alumina increased by 16.50 million tons, the demand increased by 26.32 million tons, and the supply - demand balance decreased by 15.33 million tons. The import volume increased by 5.68 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 5 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan and Shandong remained unchanged. The import volume of aluminum scrap decreased by 30,651.64 tons, and the export volume increased by 35.90 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total production capacity increased by 0.50 million tons, the production of primary aluminum decreased by 27,381.21 tons, and the export increased by 18,421.29 tons. The production of aluminum products decreased by 0.20 million tons, and the export of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6.10 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The production increased by 0.29 million tons, and the export increased by 0.76 million tons. The built - in production capacity decreased by 1.10 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly automobile production was 2.809 million vehicles, an increase of 0.167 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real - estate climate index was 93.60, a decrease of 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - **Volatility**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of Shanghai aluminum decreased, and the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly [2]. - **Put - Call Ratio**: The put - call ratio of Shanghai aluminum options was 1.16, an increase of 0.0711 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Trade**: In the first half of the year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Exports were 13 trillion yuan, up 7.2%; imports were 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7% [2]. - **Monetary Policy**: At the end of June, the balance of broad money (M2) was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%; the stock of social financing scale was 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [2]. - **Automobile Registration**: In the first half of the year, 16.88 million new motor vehicles were registered nationwide, including 5.622 million new energy vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 27.86% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 15, the silicon iron 2509 contract closed at 5494, up 0.33%. The spot price of silicon iron in Ningxia was reported at 5330. The start - up rate was running at a low level, the cost of Ningxia semi - coke decreased, and the overall demand expectation for steel products was still weak. The production profit of ferroalloys was negative, with an Inner Mongolia spot profit of - 230 yuan/ton and a Ningxia spot profit of - 70 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On July 15, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 5784, up 0.35%. The spot price of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5600. The manufacturer's start - up rate had been rising for 7 consecutive weeks at a low level, the inventory was moderately high, and the raw material manganese ore port inventory increased by 77,000 tons. The downstream molten iron output declined slightly from a high level. The profit was negative, with an Inner Mongolia spot profit of - 50 yuan/ton and a Ningxia spot profit of - 120 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement was cautious, and the tender price continued to fall. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line was above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the operation should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese silicon) main contract closing price was 5,784 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; SF (silicon iron) main contract closing price was 5,494 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract positions were 563,928 hands, down 758 hands; SF futures contract positions were 402,716 hands, down 4,825 hands [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in manganese silicon were - 49,665 hands, up 4,322 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in silicon iron were - 53,094 hands, up 750 hands [2]. - The SM 1 - 9 month contract spread was 38 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the SF 1 - 9 month contract spread was 60 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts were 84,381, down 395; SF warehouse receipts were 21,950, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of FeMn68Si18 in Inner Mongolia, Guizhou was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Yunnan was 5,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - The price of FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai was 5,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Ningxia was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese silicon index average was 5,579 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan; the SF main contract basis was - 164 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the SM main contract basis was - 184 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African Mn38 lump ore at Tianjin Port was 35 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%) in the northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium grade) in Shenmu was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The manganese ore port inventory was 4.327 million tons, up 77,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise start - up rate was 40.55%, up 0.21%; the silicon iron enterprise start - up rate was 31.20%, down 0.75% [2]. - Manganese silicon supply was 182,280 tons, up 2,170 tons; silicon iron supply was 98,700 tons, down 1,500 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon manufacturers' inventory was 220,800 tons, down 1,500 tons; silicon iron manufacturers' inventory was 70,200 tons, up 3,200 tons [2]. - Manganese silicon inventory days in national steel mills were 15.15 days, down 0.29 days; silicon iron inventory days in national steel mills were 15.20 days, down 0.24 days [2]. - The demand for manganese silicon in five major steel types was 124,928 tons, down 1,861 tons; the demand for silicon iron in five major steel types was 20,167.3 tons, down 314.4 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, down 0.31%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.87%, down 0.40% [2]. - The crude steel output was 83.18 million tons, down 3.365 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said that if Russia fails to reach an agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict within 50 days, the US will impose a 100% secondary tariff on Russia and secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil [2]. - The China National Coal Association held a symposium on the coal economic operation in the first half of the year, emphasizing safety, production rhythm, supply quality, and industry self - discipline [2]. - The EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security said that if the US - EU trade negotiation fails, the EU is ready to impose additional counter - tariffs on US imports worth 72 billion euros (about 84 billion US dollars) [2]. - The Thai Ministry of Finance is considering zero - tariff on more US imports [2]. - The US Department of Commerce launched a 232 investigation on drone and polysilicon imports [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the layer hen inventory is at a high level, with significant pressure from the newly - opened production of hens supplemented earlier, resulting in sufficient egg supply. High - temperature and high - humidity weather increases egg storage costs, making downstream dealers cautious in purchasing. Egg prices remain low compared to the same period, and the farming sector is in a continuous loss state. However, as prices reach relatively low levels, the process of culling old hens has accelerated, reducing inventory expectations. Nationwide high - temperature conditions have led to a decline in the egg - laying rate in some areas, alleviating short - term market supply pressure. With the gradual recovery of terminal demand, the farming sector's expectation of price increases is released, promoting an egg price rebound. The decline of the futures market has also slowed down, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active egg futures contract is 3615 yuan/500 kilograms, up 154 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 26222 lots, up 1290 lots; the egg futures monthly spread (9 - 1) is - 5 yuan/500 kilograms, up 5 yuan; the futures open interest of the active contract is 238587 lots, up 139084 lots; the registered warehouse receipt volume is 0 lots, down 24 lots [2] 现货市场 - The egg spot price is 2.78 yuan/jin, unchanged; the basis (spot - futures) is - 830 yuan/500 kilograms, down 154 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national layer hen inventory index is 110.89 (2015 = 100), down 1.46; the national culled layer hen index is 108.68 (2015 = 100), up 11.92; the average price of layer chicks in the main production areas is 3.9 yuan/chick, unchanged; the national new - chick index is 106.78 (2015 = 100), down 31.9; the average price of layer feed is 2.72 yuan/kg, unchanged; the layer farming profit is - 0.69 yuan/hen, down 0.11 yuan; the average price of culled hens in the main production areas is 9.2 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan; the national average age of culled hens is 506 days, down 4 days [2] Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 20.74 yuan/kg, up 0.14 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 4.38 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan; the average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.08 yuan/kg, down 0.13 yuan; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.17 days, down 0.1 days; the weekly inventory in the production link is 1.05 days, down 0.09 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 12792.51 tons, down 110.81 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly egg consumption in the sales areas is 7606 tons, down 331 tons [2] Industry News - Today, the average egg price in Shandong's main production area is 5.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.19 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Guangdong, it is 6.40 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Beijing, it is 5.60 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint On Tuesday, the I2509 contract fluctuated widely. Macro - wise, Trump threatened to impose "very severe, about 100% tariffs" on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict cannot end within 50 days. In terms of supply - demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased while the arrivals increased, and the domestic port inventory changed from increasing to decreasing. The blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of steel mills continued a slight decline, but molten iron output remained around 2.4 million tons, and the demand for molten iron still provided support. Currently, supported by favorable policies and steel mills' price - holding, the iron ore price is running strongly. However, steel mills' purchasing intention is general, with cautious inquiry and mainly for rigid demand. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2509 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are回调 at high levels, and the green bar is expanding. Operationally, trade in the short - term range of 775 - 750, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 767 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the position volume is 668,688 hands, up 3,867 hands [2]. - The I 9 - 1 contract spread is 28.5 yuan/ton, down 1.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 20,180 hands, up 4,019 hands [2]. - The I Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 3,100 hands, unchanged [2]. - The quote of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 is 98.9 dollars/ton, down 0.69 dollars [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 818 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 797 yuan/dry ton, down 1 yuan [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 703 yuan/dry ton, unchanged; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 30 yuan, down 2 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 98.60 dollars/ton, up 0.30 dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.42, up 0.02 [2]. - The estimated import cost is 812 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - The weekly iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil are 29.871 million tons, down 78,000 tons; the weekly total arrivals at 47 ports in China are 28.832 million tons, up 3.477 million tons [2]. - The weekly iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 143.4689 million tons, down 1.3901 million tons; the weekly iron ore inventory of sample steel mills is 89.7964 million tons, up 610,700 tons [2]. - The monthly iron ore imports are 105.948 million tons, up 7.818 million tons; the weekly available days of iron ore are 21 days, up 3 days [2]. - The weekly daily output of 266 mines is 396,800 tons, down 7,200 tons; the weekly operating rate of 266 mines is 62.83%, down 1.57 percentage points [2]. - The weekly iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 507,200 tons, down 15,900 tons; the BDI index is 1,783, up 120 [2]. - The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.18 dollars/ton, up 0.85 dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.23 dollars/ton, up 0.48 dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 83.13%, down 0.31 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 89.87%, down 0.40 percentage points [2]. - The monthly domestic crude steel output is 83.18 million tons, down 3.37 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.93%, down 0.54 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.36%, down 0.16 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.17%, down 3.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 21.23%, down 0.48 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the global iron ore shipments were 29.871 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 78,000 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.588 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 938,000 tons. Australia's shipments were 17.383 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 643,000 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 14.301 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 236,000 tons. Brazil's shipments were 8.205 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.581 million tons [2]. - From July 7th to July 13th, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 28.832 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.477 million tons; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 26.621 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.782 million tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 11.479 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.641 million tons [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term LLDPE supply - demand remains weak, and L2509 is expected to fluctuate with oil prices. The daily K - line should focus on the support around 7185 yuan/ton. In July, PE maintenance devices are numerous, with production and capacity utilization expected to decline. New devices from ExxonMobil and PetroChina Jilin Petrochemical are expected to be put into operation in the medium - long term, potentially increasing industry supply pressure. The downstream off - season continues, and the downstream operating rate is expected to decline slightly. Recently, international oil prices have fallen due to concerns about US high - tariff impact on demand [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) is 7221, down 63; 1 - month contract is 7239, down 49; 5 - month contract is 7214, down 44; 9 - month contract is 7221, down 63. Volume is 307,485 hands, down 402; open interest is 433,865 hands, up 12,529. 1 - 5 month contract spread is 25, down 5. Futures top 20 long positions are 358,085 hands, up 5,953; short positions are 407,891 hands, up 17,427; net long positions are - 49,806 hands, down 11,474 [2] 现货市场 - LLDPE(7042) average price in North China is 7,230 yuan/ton, down 30; in East China is 7,332.2 yuan/ton, down 22.2. The basis is 9, up 33 [2] 上游情况 - FOB: middle price of naphtha in Singapore is 64.36 dollars/barrel, up 1.44; CFR: middle price of naphtha in Japan is 597 dollars/ton, up 12.75. Ethylene CFR Southeast Asia middle price is 831 dollars/ton, unchanged; ethylene CFR Northeast Asia middle price is 821 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The national PE petrochemical operating rate is 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points [2] 下游情况 - The operating rate of PE packaging film is 48.07%, down 0.37; PE pipes is 28%, unchanged; PE agricultural film is 12.63%, up 0.54 [2] 期权市场 - 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is 12.88%, up 0.32; 40 - day historical volatility is 12.55%, up 0.2. At - the - money put option implied volatility is 13.01%, up 0.84; at - the - money call option implied volatility is 13%, up 0.83 [2] 行业消息 - From July 4th to 10th, China's polyethylene production was 605,900 tons, down 2.10% week - on - week; capacity utilization was 77.79%, down 1.67 percentage points. The average operating rate of downstream polyethylene products was down 0.18% from the previous period. As of July 9th, L2509 oscillated and declined, closing at 7,221 yuan/ton. On the supply side, the impact of last - week's shutdown devices increased, with PE production down 2.10% to 605,900 tons, capacity utilization down 1.67% to 77.79%. On the demand side, the average operating rate of PE downstream products was down 0.18% week - on - week. The inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 493,100 tons, up 12.48% from the previous period; the social sample warehouse inventory was 536,600 tons, up 3.68% from the previous period [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **General Situation**: The report analyzes the supply - demand, price trends, and influencing factors of the rapeseed - related products (rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal) in both domestic and international markets. It points out that the prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are affected by multiple factors such as international market trends, domestic supply - demand, and policy - related uncertainties [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the international market, the good weather in the US soybean - producing areas leads to a high expected yield, and the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China increases the supply of soybean meal, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. However, the upcoming peak season of aquaculture boosts the demand for rapeseed meal, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens this demand. The price of rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Internationally, the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and the decline in exports put pressure on the market. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption, high inventory of rapeseed oil in factories, and the weakening of rapeseed in the international market drag down the price of domestic rapeseed oil. Although the decline in factory operating rates and the small number of rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may support the price, the short - term volatility of rapeseed oil may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal were 9404 yuan/ton and 2655 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decrease of 20 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 68 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 343 yuan/ton. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 2216 lots to 14433 lots, while that of rapeseed meal increased by 9308 lots to 14223 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3510, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 2380 to 10086 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 9540 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2560 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 9580 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05 to 3.64. The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1340 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 770 yuan/ton. The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast increased by 0.21 million tons to 89.77 million tons. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed decreased by 15.37 tons to 33.55 tons, and the import cost of rapeseed decreased by 6.55 yuan/ton to 4887.11 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills increased by 5 tons to 20 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed decreased by 2.67% to 9.86% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Imports and Inventories**: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 10 tons to 34 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 4.13 tons to 28.79 tons. The weekly inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased by 0.72 tons to 9.29 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 1.05 tons to 1.51 tons [2]. - **Inventory in Different Regions**: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region decreased by 0.68 tons to 59.27 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 2.46 tons to 38.04 tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region decreased by 0.3 tons to 6.9 tons, and that of rapeseed meal in the South China region decreased by 1.1 tons to 28.2 tons [2]. - **提货 Volume**: The weekly提货 volume of rapeseed oil increased by 1.18 tons to 3.29 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 0.14 tons to 2.46 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed increased by 98.1 tons to 2762.1 tons, and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry increased by 411.2 billion yuan to 4578.2 billion yuan. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil decreased by 87 tons to 440.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal increased, with the call option increasing by 1.25% to 19.42% and the put option increasing by 1.41% to 19.43%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil also increased, both by about 1% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.08% to 14.6%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 1.12% to 16.79%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.44% to 11.38%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.02% to 13.17% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Monday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.1%. The prices of different contracts decreased by 0.1 - 1.3 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - **Soybean Situation**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than the analyst's expectation. The concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China led to a high operating rate of oil mills and a loose short - term supply of soybean meal [2]. - **Palm Oil Situation**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 2.41% to 203 tons at the end of June, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 15 decreased [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - **Data**: The rapeseed operating rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in different regions released by Myagric on Monday are important data to watch [2]. - **Trade Disputes**: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the US may affect the rapeseed market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of increasing supply and demand. The industrial inventory, although accumulating, still operates in a low - level range, and the consumption expectation is positive. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 78,090 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,614.50 dollars/ton, down 4.50 dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 169,930 hands, down 2,274 hands. The LME copper inventory is 109,625 tons, up 900 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 81,462 tons, down 3,127 tons [2] 现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 77,995 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 78,185 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan. The CU main contract basis is - 95 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The imported quantity of copper ore and concentrates is 239.52 million tons, down 50.98 million tons. The output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, unchanged. The imported quantity of unwrought copper and copper products is 464,000 tons, up 34,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,090 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 67,150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan [2] Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 209.60 million tons, up 1.50 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.8 billion yuan, up 1,042.416 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,510 million pieces, up 275 million pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.34%, up 0.09%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.33%, unchanged. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility is 11.32%, down 0.0061%. The at - the - money option purchase - to - put ratio is 1.68, up 0.018 [2] Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 21.79 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the July 29 - 30 meeting. The balance of broad money (M2) at the end of June was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. In the first half of the year, the number of newly registered motor vehicles in China was 16.88 million, among which the number of newly registered new - energy vehicles was 5.622 million, a year - on - year increase of 27.86% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The USDA's July cotton supply and demand report is bearish, and good weather and improved crop ratings are suppressing the upside potential of US cotton in the short term. There are risks from macro factors such as US tariffs on imports from Japan, South Korea and potential new 10% tariffs on BRICS countries. In China, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders, a slow decline in overall operating rates, and more cautious raw material procurement. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, and high - temperature weather in some areas of Xinjiang increases the risk of heat damage to cotton, supporting a slightly stronger price trend. However, the consumption off - season in the downstream is dragging on the price rhythm, so the overall trend is oscillating slightly stronger. Weather and macro factors should be continuously monitored [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,050 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 14,759 lots, up 2,947 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is 109 lots, up 4 lots. The main contract positions of cotton are 546,688 lots, down 11,044 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 21,168 lots, down 1,042 lots. The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 9,716 sheets, down 91 sheets; for cotton yarn, it is 98 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 20,520 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,651 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count) is 22,109 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 14,384 yuan/ton; the landed price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 23,902 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 616 tons, up 54 tons [2] Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,218 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 85 tons, up 2.4 tons. The monthly import volume of cotton is 4 tons, down 2 tons; for cotton yarn, it is 100,000 tons, down 20,000 tons. The profit from imported cotton is 971 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan. The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 345.87 tons, down 69.39 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 23.86 days, up 1.52 days; the坯布 inventory days are 35.46 days, up 2.57 days. The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, down 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 195.1 tons, down 3.6 tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773.7 million US dollars, up 197,117.9 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177.3 million US dollars, up 5,210.9 million US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 15.96%, up 7.71%; for put options, it is 16.02%, up 7.78%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 5.01%, up 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 8.35%, down 0.23% [2] Industry News - As of the week of July 13, 2025, the US cotton boll - setting rate is 23%, up from 14% the previous week, compared with 26% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 22%. The budding rate is 61%, up from 48% the previous week, compared with 62% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 62%. The good - to - excellent rate is 54%, up from 52% the previous week, compared with 45% in the same period last year [2]