瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.11」 碳酸锂市场周报 供给偏多库存高位，锂价仍需谨慎交易 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力合约周线震荡偏强。截止收盘，周线涨跌幅+1.58%，振幅3.76%。主力合约报价64280元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，商务部回应美商务部长称可能于8月初与中方谈判代表会面：目前，中美双方在多个层级就经 贸领域各自关切保持密切沟通。碳酸锂基本面原料端，近期碳酸锂现货价随着产业预期的改善而走高，带动锂矿价格 报价上移，期货盘面的套保机会亦使锂盐厂对原料的需求有所提升，锂矿市场交易活跃度有所转好。供给端，冶炼厂 生产意愿有所提振，国内供给量仍显偏多，行业库存高位运行。需求方面，新能源产业排产预期有所转好，下游材料 厂对碳酸锂的刚性需求令现货市场成交热情有所保障，带动市场情绪回暖。但仍需注意的是行业基本面供给端仍有压 力，产 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2430 in the short term [7] - Market review: This week, the spot price of the domestic port methanol market declined. The market was constrained by weak terminal demand, with insufficient upward momentum. The overall production of methanol decreased slightly, and enterprise and port inventories changed. The olefin industry's overall operation increased slightly this week and may continue to rise next week [8] - Market outlook: The domestic methanol output will continue to decline slightly. The port methanol inventory may accumulate slightly, and the olefin industry's operating rate may continue to increase slightly [8] Group 2: Futures Market - Futures price: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.21% [11] - Inter - period spread: As of July 11, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 73 [16] - Warehouse receipts: As of July 10, there were 8720 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 65 compared to last week [23] Group 3: Spot Market - Domestic price: As of July 11, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2380 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1990 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 390 yuan/ton, down 62.5 yuan/ton from last week [29] - Foreign price: As of July 10, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 277 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 58 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars/ton from last week [35] - Basis: As of July 11, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 10 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from last week [39] Group 4: Industry Chain Upstream - Coal and gas price: As of July 9, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 660 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of July 10, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.37 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.4 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] Industry - Production and utilization rate: As of July 10, China's methanol production was 1,909,928 tons, a decrease of 77,148 tons from last week. The device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.89% [46] - Inventory: As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises was 356,900 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.31%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 221,200 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.29% [49] - Import: In May 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.2923 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.06%; from January to May 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 3.3694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.43%. As of July 10, the methanol import profit was 21.44 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton from last week [53] Downstream - Operating rate: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 85.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [56] - Profit: As of July 11, the domestic methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 841 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.7 yuan/ton from last week [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, there are differences within the Fed. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation will not be long - lasting, while others expect it to last until next year. Bentsen said Trump has unique abilities in identifying and solving problems but may lack patience in implementation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, the smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the previously shut - down capacities have resumed production, leading to a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusting widely. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and still have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. The LME zinc premium overseas has risen, and inventories have continued to decline, driving up domestic prices [4]. - Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. The price is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500 [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the macro - aspect, Fed members have different views on tariff - related inflation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year. Fundamentally, supply is increasing due to factors like increased zinc ore imports and processing fees. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Technically, the price is in a range - bound oscillation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Suggest waiting and seeing or conducting range operations [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from July 4, a decrease of 0.13%. As of July 10, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,777 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars/ton from July 4, an increase of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [9]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 11, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 33,000 lots, a decrease of 4,442 lots from July 4. The open interest was 252,089 lots, a decrease of 10,644 lots or 4.05% from July 4 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 11, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from July 4. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from July 4 [18]. - **Premiums**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from July 4, an increase of 0.09%. The spot premium was 5 yuan/ton, a decrease from last week. As of July 10, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 4.68 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.67 dollars/ton from July 3 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 11, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 105,250 tons, a decrease of 7,075 tons or 6.3% from July 4. Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 49,981 tons, an increase of 4,617 tons or 10.18% from last week. As of July 10, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 72,500 tons, an increase of 8,900 tons or 13.99% from July 3 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - side**: - According to WBMS, there is a global shortage of refined zinc supply [32]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39]. - In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [42]. - **Downstream**: - From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%. The export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [45]. - From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. From January to May 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [48][49]. - In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [53][54]. - In May 2025, refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator production was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][57]. - In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. The automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber spot price showed a weak consolidation. The ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing decreased by 100 yuan/ton in total, and that of PetroChina's sales companies decreased by 300 yuan/ton in total. As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 11,400 - 11,600 yuan/ton [7]. - Recently, the low - price transactions at the raw material butadiene end have gradually improved. Affected by the news of a fault in an upstream device in East China, some rigid - demand purchases have followed up with price pressure. The overall inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has increased slightly, while the inventory of trading enterprises has decreased slightly. The cost factor supports the current butadiene rubber price, but downstream purchases remain cautious, and the resistance to shipment may increase. It is expected that the short - term inventory level may increase slightly [7]. - This week, the capacity utilization rates of domestic tire enterprises varied. The production schedule of semi - steel tire enterprises under maintenance at the beginning of the month gradually recovered, which boosted the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises this week. An individual all - steel tire enterprise was under maintenance, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires slightly. Next week, the production schedule of the maintenance enterprises will return to the normal level, and the capacity utilization rate still has room for recovery, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [7]. - The short - term forecast for the br2509 contract is to fluctuate in the range of 11,200 - 11,700 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic cis - butadiene rubber spot price was weakly consolidated. The ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina decreased by 300 yuan/ton. As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price was 11,400 - 11,600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Cost supports the price, but downstream purchases are cautious, and shipment resistance may increase. Short - term inventory may rise slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has room for recovery [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,200 and 11,700 [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract oscillated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 3.44% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content about position analysis results is provided. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of July 11, the 8 - 9 spread of butadiene rubber was 30 [18]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of July 11, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 1,600 tons, an increase of 900 tons from last week [21]. 3.3. Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of July 10, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 290 yuan/ton from last week [25]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of July 10, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 591 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12.25 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of July 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.89%, a decrease of 1.2% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,330 tons from last week [33]. 3.5. Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In June 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous month. As of July 10, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 65.54%, a decrease of 1.5% from last week [37]. - **Production Profit**: As of July 10, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 526 yuan/ton, a decrease of 362 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - **Inventory**: As of July 11, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,770 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from last week; the inventory of manufacturers was 26,500 tons, an increase of 150 tons from last week; the inventory of traders was 6,270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons from last week [43]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.66 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 14.25 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.55 percentage points [47]. - **Tire Exports**: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire export volume was 3,404,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1,335,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 1,927,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated upwards. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong rose to 1810 - 1850 yuan/ton, with the average price up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. The short - term output may stabilize as previously shut - down plants resume production. Agricultural demand continues to advance, and the compound fertilizer plant operating rate may slowly recover in the middle and late ten - days. However, next week, industrial demand is expected to weaken, agricultural demand growth will decrease, and the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down [6]. - For the UR2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1750 - 1800 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market fluctuated upwards this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong rose to 1810 - 1850 yuan/ton, with the average price up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic urea daily output has increased, and short - term output may stabilize. Agricultural demand continues to advance, and the compound fertilizer plant operating rate may slowly recover. But next week, industrial demand is expected to weaken, agricultural demand growth will decrease, and the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: UR2509 contract short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1750 - 1800 [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 2.19% [10]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of July 11, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 39 [13]. - **Position Analysis**: As of July 10, the number of Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts was 2,645, an increase of 2,145 from last week [21]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of July 10, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,860 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1,860 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [27]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of July 10, the FOB China price of urea was 382.5 dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - **Basis Trend**: As of July 10, the urea basis was 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - As of July 9, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 660 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week; as of July 10, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.37 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.4 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of July 10, China's urea output was 1.3818 million tons, an increase of 15,300 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.12%; the average daily output was 197,400 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons from last week [41]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 489,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 49,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.14%; as of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 967,700 tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.99% [44]. - **Export**: In May 2025, urea exports were 2,436.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%; the average export price was 209.07 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.54% [47]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - As of July 10, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 29.83%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 62.56%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from last week [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - EB2508 rose 2.73% to close at 7,520 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week's styrene production decreased by 0.05% to 366,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.05% to 80.03%. On the demand side, the consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) decreased by 5.21% to 243,600 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 2.99% to 194,000 tons, the inventory at East China ports increased by 12.85% to 1.115 million tons, and the inventory at South China ports decreased by 40% to 90,000 tons. After the centralized restart of large - scale plants, the styrene operating rate has remained high. This week, a 300,000 - ton plant in Hebei is planned to shut down, while a 350,000 - ton plant in the Northeast and a 120,000 - ton plant in Central China will restart, with production and capacity utilization expected to rise slightly. In the off - season of terminal demand, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. The finished product inventory of downstream "Three S" products is high, and the profits of EPS and PS are still low; although the profit of ABS has recovered due to weak costs, the demand has not improved. The total inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and it is more difficult to destock. In terms of cost, the US may maintain sanctions on some oil - producing countries, and the situation in the Red Sea region has deteriorated, causing recent international oil prices to fluctuate strongly; the supply - demand of pure benzene is expected to remain loose, and its price lacks support. The market is trading on the expectation of the exit of backward production capacity, and the industrial products sector is mostly rising. Pay attention to the resistance around 7,600 on the EB2508 contract [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The trading volume of the active styrene futures contract (EB) was 425,364 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 129,452 lots; the closing price was 7,520 yuan/ton. The closing price of the September contract was 7,426 yuan/ton, up 163 yuan. The long position of the top 20 holders was 382,996 lots, a decrease of 292 lots; the net long position was 263,392 lots, a decrease of 16,825 lots; the short position was 399,821 lots, an increase of 2,618 lots. The total number of styrene warehouse receipts was 7,908 lots, a decrease of 6 lots. The FOB South Korea middle - price of styrene was 905 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR China middle - price of styrene was 915 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The mainstream prices of styrene in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 7,755 yuan/ton, 7,625 yuan/ton, and 7,635 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and 30 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle - price of ethylene was 821 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle - price was 831 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF Northwest Europe middle - price was 806 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13.5 US dollars; the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in the US Gulf (FOB) was 728.83 cents/gallon, unchanged; the CIF price in Taiwan was 278 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 763 US dollars/ton, an increase of 1 US dollar. The market prices of pure benzene in the South, East, and North China markets were 5,850 yuan/ton, 5,875 yuan/ton, and 5,830 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and 30 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The overall styrene operating rate was 80.03%, a decrease of 0.05 percentage points. The national styrene inventory was 193,950 tons, a decrease of 5,973 tons. The total inventory at the East China main port was 111,500 tons, an increase of 12,700 tons; the trade inventory was 39,000 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rates of EPS, ABS, PS, UPR, and styrene - butadiene rubber were 55.88% (down 3.84 percentage points), 65.04% (down 0.96 percentage points), 52.4% (down 5 percentage points), 29% (down 1 percentage point), and 73.66% (down 0.43 percentage points) respectively [2]. Industry News - From June 27th to July 3rd, the total output of Chinese styrene plants was 366,600 tons, a decrease of 0.05% from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 80.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 243,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.21% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The resumption progress of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar has great uncertainty, and Thailand prohibits Myanmar from transporting tin ore through its territory, restricting the supply of tin ore imports. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historically low level. On the smelting side, the Yunnan production area is facing a shortage of raw materials and cost pressures, while the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the rush to install in the photovoltaic industry ended, the operating rate of some producers decreased, and the electronics industry entered the off - season with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recently, the tin price has been widely adjusted, with downstream buyers purchasing on dips, the domestic inventory has decreased slightly, and the overseas inventory continues to decline with an increase in LME cancelled warrants. Technically, there is a divergence between long and short positions at a low position in holdings, and the price is adjusted in a wide range. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 262,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 266,740 yuan/ton, up 3,850 yuan/ton; the closing price of the LME 3 - month tin is 33,250 US dollars/ton, down 70 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the August - September contract of Shanghai tin is - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 26,471 lots, down 162 lots. The net holding of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 1,701 lots, up 611 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 2,060 tons, up 75 tons, and the cancelled warrants of LME tin is 615 tons, up 50 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,198 tons, up 243 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin is 6,685 tons, down 53 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 265,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 264,930 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 1,740 yuan/ton, down 3,850 yuan/ton, and the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 12 US dollars/ton, up 32 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 255,300 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan/ton; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 259,300 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 172,130 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 0.1445 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - China's CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, the core CPI reached a 14 - month high, and the year - on - year decline of PPI widened to 3.6%. Trump announced that starting from August 1, the US will impose a 20% tariff on Philippine products, a 25% tariff on Brunei and Moldova, and a 30% tariff on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. The new tariff on Brazil announced by Trump far exceeds the previous one. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in June increased by 26.7% year - on - year [3]

Report Information - Report Name: Stainless Steel Industry Daily Report 2025-07-10 [1] - Researcher: Wang Fuhui [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03123381 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0019878 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The cost support of raw materials has weakened as the price of ferronickel has dropped significantly recently, despite the increased supply cost of nickel resources due to the implementation of Indonesia's PNBP policy [2]. - The steel mills are facing increased pressure of cost inversion and are in a state of full - line losses, leading to increased production cuts. With domestic anti - involution measures, the over - supply situation may be alleviated, and stainless steel production is expected to decline further [2]. - Entering the traditional off - season of consumption, with increased macro - market uncertainties and export demand pressure, the downstream market is cautious and pessimistic. The domestic inventory reduction is not satisfactory, and the impact of subsequent production cuts on inventory reduction should be monitored [2]. - Technically, the long - position is slightly stronger in terms of positions. Pay attention to the support of MA10, and it is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to go long with a light position [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,865 yuan/ton, with a change of 95 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is 80 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 9,647 lots, an increase of 9 lots; the position volume of the main contract is 85,345 lots, a decrease of 2,421 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,290 tons, with no change [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of the SS main contract is 5 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons [2]. - The SMM1 nickel spot price is 120,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 450 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 905 yuan/nickel point, with no change [2]. - The monthly chromium - iron production in China is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 605,900 tons, a decrease of 13,500 tons [2]. - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters [2]. - The monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 24,600 units, a decrease of 10,400 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the core CPI reaching a 14 - month high, and the PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.6%. The CPI turned positive after four consecutive months of decline, mainly due to the recovery of industrial consumer goods prices, and the PPI's month - on - month decline was the same as last month, with some industries showing signs of price stabilization [2]. - Trump announced that starting from August 1st, the US will impose a 20% tariff on Philippine products, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, and 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. The new tariff on Brazil is much higher than the previous 10% [2]. - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in June increased by 26.7% year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further repair of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released continuously, and the supply growth has accelerated. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been widely adjusted, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase at low prices. The domestic social inventory has increased slightly, but the expectation of favorable policies in the real estate market has increased, and the spot premium has been adjusted upwards. Overseas, the LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up domestic prices. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicates stronger long - positions, and the price has stood above the MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,120 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 75 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,719 US dollars/ton, up 36 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 250,347 lots, down 3,271 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,212 lots, up 8,912 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 8,950 tons, up 1,001 tons; the SHFE inventory is 45,364 tons, up 1,731 tons; the LME inventory is 108,500 tons, down 2,100 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,400 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,250 yuan/ton, up 520 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 40 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 9.88 US dollars/ton, up 12.17 US dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,840 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, up 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the social zinc inventory is 69,800 tons, up 6,200 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, up 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, up 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.642 million vehicles, up 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money zinc call options is 14.27%, down 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money zinc put options is 14.27%, down 0.72 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.53%, down 1.06 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 13.01%, down 1.45 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - China's CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, the core CPI reached a 14 - month high, and the PPI decline widened to 3.6%. Trump announced that from August 1st, the US will impose tariffs on products from multiple countries. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China in June increased by 26.7% year - on - year [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Downstream players are purchasing on an as-needed basis, leading to a slight increase in domestic social inventories while overseas inventories remain stable. Technically, there is a reduction in positions and a divergence between long and short positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Nickel is 121,140 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the spread between the 08 - 09 contracts for Shanghai Nickel is -130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,000 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars; the main contract position volume of Shanghai Nickel is 65,815 lots, down 7,104 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai Nickel is -11,996 lots, down 325 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 204,738 tons, up 1,176 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 24,922 tons, up 204 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 8,550 tons, up 66 tons; the warrant quantity for Shanghai Nickel is 20,605 tons, down 72 tons [3] Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,600 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plates from Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 120,700 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Shanghai electrolytic nickel bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is -540 yuan/ton, down 1,550 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is -209.41 dollars/ton, down 1.78 dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, up 101.31 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 871.84 million tons, up 112.61 million tons; the average monthly import price of nickel ore is 73.42 dollars/ton, down 5.44 dollars; the含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel output is 2.39 million metal tons, up 0.22 million metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, down 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 84.82 million tons, up 3.13 million tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is down 3.96 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, down 1.35 million tons [3] Industry News - China's CPI in June increased by 0.1% year - on - year, with the core CPI reaching a 14 - month high, and the PPI year - on - year decline widened to 3.6%. Trump announced that starting from August 1, the US will impose tariffs of 20% on Philippine products, 25% on Brunei and Moldova, and 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers reported that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China increased by 26.7% year - on - year in June [3]