Report Overview - Report Title: "Macro Market Weekly Report" [2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 - Author: Liao Hongbin - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0020723 - Contact Phone: 4008 - 8787 - 66 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The A - share market showed positive performance this week, with major indices rising collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The bond market weakened due to the strengthening of the equity market, but the bullish foundation of the bond market remains supported in the short term. The commodity market faces pressure from factors such as US tariff policies and domestic deflation, but supply reduction expectations may provide some support. The dollar rebounded slightly, and the euro - dollar exchange rate was affected by factors such as tariff negotiations and inflation [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - A - share major indices rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively. The market's reaction to Trump's new tariff announcement was dull, and the release of June inflation data and positive corporate earnings pre - announcements were positive for the market. Market trading activity increased slightly compared to last week. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Bonds - Bond futures weakened this week. The recent strength of the equity market suppressed bond market sentiment, but the weak economic fundamentals, balanced and loose liquidity, and low inflation provide support for the bond market. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [6]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell by 0.33%, while the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 1.02%. US tariff policies and domestic deflation pressure suppress commodity demand, but supply reduction expectations due to domestic over - capacity reduction policies may support prices. Allocation suggestion: buy on dips [7][8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro - dollar exchange rate declined. The dollar rebounded slightly due to strong non - farm data and the passage of the tax - cut bill, while the euro area faces complex tariff situations and inflation trends. Allocation suggestion: cautious waiting and seeing [7]. 3.2 Important News and Events Domestic News - China's retirees' basic pensions achieved a "21 - year consecutive increase", with an overall adjustment level of 2% of the 2024 monthly per - capita basic pension. The "14th Five - Year Plan" economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, and this year's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 140 trillion yuan. The State Council issued policies to support stable employment, and Premier Li Qiang met with the WTO Director - General [16]. International News - The Fed's June meeting minutes showed a dovish signal, and the probability of a rate cut increased slightly. Trump announced new tariff policies on multiple countries, and many countries responded, with some expressing regret and others threatening counter - measures [12][18]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China's June CPI annual rate was 0.1%, ending four consecutive months of decline, and the PPI annual rate was - 3.6%. In the US, the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending July 5 was 227,000. In the UK, the May three - month GDP monthly rate was 0.5%, and the manufacturing and industrial output monthly rates were negative. Germany's May industrial output monthly rate was 1.2%, and France's June CPI monthly rate was 0.4%. Japan's May trade deficit was 522.336 billion yen [13][19]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data will be released in multiple countries, including China's June export and import annual rates in US dollars, social consumer goods retail sales, and industrial added value; the US's June CPI, PPI, and retail sales; the UK's June CPI and unemployment rate; and Japan's June core CPI [84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4%. Domestically, the price trend is different from that abroad. The opening of the profit window for out - of - quota imports will release import pressure and suppress sugar prices. However, the summer consumption peak and the restocking demand of the food and beverage industry provide some support. Internationally, the good supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia and the year - on - year increase in Brazil's exports suppress the raw sugar price, but Pakistan's plan to import 500,000 tons and the decrease in sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in late June provide short - term support. Overall, the domestic sugar price fluctuates with the raw sugar price, but the domestic demand recovery makes it stronger than the foreign market. In the later stage, both supply and demand are strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on include consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract price decreased by about 0.4% this week. Internationally, the supply is expected to be loose, but there is short - term support. Domestically, the import pressure will be released, but the demand provides support. The domestic sugar price fluctuates with the raw sugar price and is stronger than the foreign market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. [5] - It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on are consumption and the exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. [5] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market** - The price of the US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 0.67% this week. As of July 9, 2025, the non - commercial net position of ICE raw sugar remained unchanged from the previous period, and the futures settlement price of NYBOT No. 11 sugar increased by 2.67% month - on - month. [8] - The international raw sugar spot price increased. As of July 4, 2025, the international spot price of raw sugar was 16.72 cents per pound, a month - on - month increase of 4.57%. [11] - This week, the top 20 net positions in the white sugar futures were - 19,355 lots, and the Zhengzhou Sugar warehouse receipts were 22,744. [17] - **Spot Market** - As of July 11, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,120 yuan per ton, and the spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,895 yuan per ton. [21] - As of July 8, 2025, the estimated in - quota import price index of Brazilian sugar was 4,457 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67%; the estimated out - of - quota import price index of Brazilian sugar was 5,662 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%. The estimated out - of - quota import processing price of Thai sugar (50% tariff) was 5,715 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%; the estimated in - quota import processing price of Thai sugar was 4,498 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. [23] - As of last week, the in - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 1,476 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.93%; the out - of - quota profit of imported Brazilian sugar was 271 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.81%. The in - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 1,435 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%; the out - of - quota profit of imported Thai sugar was 218 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 20.44%. [28] 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side** - As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons, or 12.03%. [32] - As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 322,100 tons. [36] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase of 220,000 tons from April and a surge of 1954.9% year - on - year. However, from January to May 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were only 630,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 50.1%. [40] - **Demand Side** - The cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons, or 23.07%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. [44] - From January to May 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 9.066 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The cumulative output of soft drinks was 74.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.19%. [49] 3.4. Option and Stock Market - **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for white sugar this week is presented in the chart of the implied volatility of the underlying of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract, but specific data is not given in the text. [50] - **Stock Market** - The chart of the price - to - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but specific data is not given in the text. [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For corn, the international corn price has an advantage due to the good initial growth condition in the US. In the domestic market, the cooling of imported corn auction transactions, strong selling intention of grain holders, increasing feed substitution of wheat, and weakening feed demand have led to a decline in corn prices. The corn futures price continued to fall this week, showing overall weakness [8]. - For corn starch, although the production loss of corn starch enterprises has reduced the supply pressure, the demand in the civilian and paper - making markets is poor, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch futures price has also shown a weak oscillation recently [12]. - The strategy for both corn and corn starch is to focus on short - term trading [7][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary Corn - **Market Review**: The corn futures price fluctuated and declined this week. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The excellent rate of US corn is high, and the international corn price has an advantage. In the domestic market, the cooling of auction transactions, increased market supply, and substitution of wheat have led to weakening prices [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [7]. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures price fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2509 contract was 2656 yuan/ton, a decrease of 61 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The production loss has reduced the supply pressure, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Affected by the decline of corn prices, the starch price has shown a weak oscillation [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on short - term trading [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The corn futures September contract continued to decline, with a total position of 1030900 lots, an increase of 85554 lots compared with the previous week. The corn starch futures September contract also declined, with a total position of 247864 lots, an increase of 69516 lots compared with the previous week [18]. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 30902, and the net short position decreased compared with the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 9506, and the net short position also decreased [24]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipt volume of yellow corn was 196479, and that of corn starch was 21979 [30]. Spot Price and Basis - As of July 10, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2426.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the September futures price and the spot price was + 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, with a slightly decreasing trend. The basis between the September futures price and the Jilin spot price was 194 yuan/ton [35][39]. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 75 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 44 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [45]. Futures Spread - The spread between the September contracts of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [53]. Substitute Spread - As of July 10, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 18.64 yuan/ton. In the 28th week of 2025, the average spread between cassava starch and corn starch was 139 yuan/ton, an increase of 19 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [58]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - **Port Inventory**: As of July 4, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 88.6 tons, a decrease of 15.5 tons compared with the previous week, and the foreign trade inventory was 1.3 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared with the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 259.6 tons, a decrease of 12.8 tons compared with the previous week, and the shipping volume was 41.8 tons, an increase of 16.6 tons compared with the previous week [49]. - **Monthly Import**: In May 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons (81.9%) compared with the same period last year and an increase of 10,000 tons compared with the previous month [67]. - **Feed Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 10, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.58 days, a decrease of 0.38 days compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19%, and a year - on - year increase of 1.38% [71]. - **Demand Side** - **Livestock Inventory**: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [75]. - **Breeding Profit**: As of July 4, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 119.72 yuan/head, and that of purchased piglets was - 26.26 yuan/head [79]. - **Processing Profit**: As of July 11, 2025, the processing profit of corn starch in Jilin was - 66 yuan/ton. The processing profit of corn alcohol in Henan was - 585 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 399 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 85 yuan/ton [84]. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.436 million tons, an increase of 1.88% [88]. - **Starch Production and Inventory**: From July 3 to July 9, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 536,700 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with the previous week; the national corn starch production was 259,400 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons compared with the previous week; the weekly operation rate was 50.14%, a decrease of 1.06% compared with the previous week. As of July 9, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.337 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the previous week, a weekly increase of 1.83%, a monthly increase of 2.14%, and a year - on - year increase of 26.97% [92]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis - As of July 11, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 7.67%, a decrease of 1.05% compared with 8.72% in the previous week. The implied volatility continued to decline this week and was at a slightly higher level than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [95].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Treasury bond futures significantly corrected this week. The "anti-involution" signal and the market's expectation of real estate updates created short-term bearish sentiment. The stock-bond seesaw effect continued to amplify, and the bond market was under full pressure. However, the current weak economic fundamentals remain unchanged, coupled with a balanced and loose capital situation. There is still room for policy easing under low inflation, and the long-term support logic of the bond market is difficult to be substantially broken in the short term. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after confirming stability [94]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Bond Futures Contracts**: The main contracts of 30-year (TL2509), 10-year (T2509), 5-year (TF2509), and 2-year (TS2509) Treasury bond futures fell by 0.49%, 0.25%, 0.24%, and 0.09% respectively this week. The closing prices of the main contracts of each term are presented in corresponding charts [12][16][22]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL all increased. The open interests of the main contracts of TS and T decreased, while those of TF and TL increased [30]. 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: "14th Five-Year Plan" achievements show that China's economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, and this year's economic aggregate is expected to reach about 1.4 quadrillion yuan. In June, CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. The State Council issued a notice on further strengthening employment stabilization policies. In the first half of 2025, significant breakthroughs were made in prospecting for important minerals in China [33]. - **Overseas News**: US President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1, 2025, and plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on 22 countries starting from August. The Fed's internal differences over the impact of tariffs on the inflation path have increased, but the policy tone remains cautiously wait-and-see [35][93]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes**: The yield spreads between 10-year and 5-year, 10-year and 1-year Treasury bonds, as well as the spreads between the main contracts of 2-year and 5-year, 5-year and 10-year Treasury bond futures all narrowed slightly. The inter - term spreads of 10-year contracts narrowed slightly, while those of 30-year contracts widened slightly. The inter - term spreads of 2-year contracts narrowed slightly, and those of 5-year contracts fluctuated [43][47][53]. - **Treasury Bond Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T Treasury bond futures main contract decreased significantly [64]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: Overnight and 1 - week Shibor rates increased, while 2 - week and 1 - month Shibor rates decreased. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.47%. The yields of domestic Treasury bonds weakened, with the 1 - 7Y yields rising by about 3.2 - 4.0bp, and the 10Y and 30Y yields rising by about 1.9bp and 2.5bp to 1.66% and 1.87% respectively. The yield spreads between Chinese and US 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds both narrowed slightly [68][72]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 425.7 billion yuan in reverse repurchases in the open market this week, with 652.2 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan. The weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded to around 1.47% [75]. - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bond issuance was 1.145151 trillion yuan, with a total repayment of 850.151 billion yuan and a net financing of 295 billion yuan [77]. - **Market Sentiment**: The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1475, with a cumulative increase of 60 basis points this week. The spread between offshore and onshore RMB strengthened. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased slightly, the VIX index decreased significantly, the 10 - year Treasury yield in China increased slightly, and the A - share risk premium decreased [81][87][90]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In June, the price level continued to be under pressure. The CPI index improved marginally, turning from a year - on - year decrease to an increase. The PPI of industrial products remained in the negative range, falling into a deflationary range of negative growth for 7 consecutive months. The "anti - involution" signal and the issuance of fiscal subsidy funds in July may support subsequent prices and promote a moderate recovery of the inflation level [93]. - **Overseas Situation**: The US labor market continues to show resilience, and trade risks have resurfaced. The Fed's internal differences over the impact of tariffs on the inflation path have increased, but the policy tone remains cautiously wait - and - see, and there is no consensus on the expectation of interest rate cuts [93]. - **Investment Strategy**: Observe the adjustment of Treasury bond futures in the short term and allocate after confirming stability [94].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon rose 5.45% and polysilicon rose 16.39%. Both have shown signs of fatigue, and it is expected that they may start to correct next week. The correction range of polysilicon is expected to be smaller than that of industrial silicon [7]. - For industrial silicon, the overall demand from its three major downstream industries continues to slow down. For polysilicon, the demand side still faces significant pressure, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging [7]. - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuate within the range of 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short term, within the range of 37500 - 42500, with a stop - loss range of 36500 - 43000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon rose 5.45% this week, driven by an anti - involution meeting. Polysilicon rose 16.39%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry. However, short - term polysilicon has entered an overheated state, and the market's upward momentum has gradually declined [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, the supply in the northwest remains stable, and the production cost in the southwest has decreased. The overall demand from downstream industries has slowed down. For polysilicon, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has weakened. It is expected that both may correct next week, with polysilicon's correction range being smaller [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should fluctuate within 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short term, within 37500 - 42500, with a stop - loss range of 36500 - 43000 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the price of industrial silicon rose, the spot price increased, and the basis weakened. As of July 11, 2025, the spot price was 8750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 335 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the futures price of polysilicon rebounded, the basis strengthened, and the spot price increased. As of July 11, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, up 10 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was 4700 yuan/gram [17][19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: This week, the production and operating rate of industrial silicon increased. As of July 11, 2025, the national output was about 77,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 53.44% [21][22]. - **Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the electricity price was adjusted downwards. During the wet season, the overall cost continued to decline [25]. - **Inventory**: This week, the warehouse receipts of industrial silicon decreased, the social inventory increased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,544 lots, a decrease of 1372 lots from last week, and the total social inventory was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons [30][34]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: The production and operating rate of organic silicon increased, the short - term profit was repaired, and the production continued. As of July 11, 2025, the weekly output was 44,800 tons, a decrease of 100 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 69.41%, an increase of 1.17% [36][40]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased, the inventory increased, and it was still in the stage of passive de - stocking. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will remain weak [48]. - **Silicon Wafer and Cell**: The prices of silicon wafers and cells decreased, which dragged down the demand for polysilicon and industrial silicon [55]. - **Polysilicon Cost and Production**: This week, the cost of polysilicon remained flat, and it is expected that the production will gradually decline. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15% [62][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The main contract 2508 closed down 1.27%. Affected by overseas inventory reduction, weakening US dollar, and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. After the short - term positive factors faded, it showed a downward trend on Friday, and the price was still below the annual line [6]. - On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The profit of secondary lead increased slightly due to the slight increase in raw material supply, but the supply increment was limited in the short term. On the demand side, the market transaction was generally weak, and the support for lead price was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory and warehouse receipts increased slightly. The profit space of subsequent imports is expected to decline. The processing fee of lead concentrate has started to decline, which will have a negative impact on the production of secondary and primary lead [6]. - Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the economic stimulus demand is obvious, and the lead price is expected to continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate in the range of 16800 - 17600, with a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17900 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the Shanghai lead futures rose first and then fell. The main contract 2508 closed down 1.27%. Affected by overseas inventory reduction, weakening US dollar, and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, the price of Shanghai lead fluctuated upward. After the short - term positive factors faded, it showed a downward trend on Friday, and the price was still below the annual line. The probability of a slight decline next week is expected to increase [6]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters increased due to the rising lead price. The profit of secondary lead increased slightly due to the slight increase in raw material supply, but the supply increment was limited in the short term. On the demand side, the market transaction was generally weak, and the support for lead price was limited. Affected by the "lithium replacing lead" trend and high - temperature weather, the operating rate of battery enterprises in five provinces decreased. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory decreased, while domestic inventory and warehouse receipts increased slightly. The profit space of subsequent imports is expected to decline. The processing fee of lead concentrate has started to decline, which will have a negative impact on the production of secondary and primary lead. Overall, the supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly next week. With the introduction of the "Big Beautiful Act", the economic stimulus demand is obvious, and the lead price is expected to continue to rise in the short term [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended that the main contract 2508 of Shanghai lead fluctuate in the range of 16800 - 17600, with a stop - loss range of 16500 - 17900. Pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control [6] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: This week, the domestic futures price of Shanghai lead increased compared with last week, and the foreign futures price also increased, but the ratio decreased. As of July 11, 2025, the futures closing price (electronic disk) of LME 3 - month lead was $2028 per ton, and the futures closing price of the active contract of lead was 17075 yuan per ton. The Shanghai - London ratio of lead was 8.424 [8][12] - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic futures premium and discount strengthened, and the foreign premium and discount also strengthened. As of July 11, 2025, the Chinese futures premium and discount was - 145 yuan per ton, and the LME lead premium and discount (0 - 3) was - 22.58 dollars per ton [14][16] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: Foreign lead inventory decreased, while domestic inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. As of July 10, 2025, the total inventory of lead was 59500 tons, an increase of 6400 tons; the total inventory of LME lead was 252375 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons. The number of warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead was 50633 tons, an increase of 4194 tons [30][35] 3. Industrial Situation - **Supply - Primary Lead**: The operating rate and output of primary lead enterprises increased. As of July 3, 2025, the average operating rate of the main producing areas of primary lead was 79.05%, an increase of 2.25% compared with last week; the weekly output of primary lead was 36300 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with last week [19][21] - **Supply - Secondary Lead**: The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead enterprises began to rise slightly. As of July 3, 2025, the output of the main producing areas of secondary lead in China was 17700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 300 tons; the average capacity utilization rate of secondary lead was 37.86%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The number of secondary lead production enterprises remained unchanged. As of June 30, 2025, the total number of secondary lead production enterprises was 68 [25][28][39] - **Supply - Trade**: The export of refined lead was obvious, and the import of refined lead increased significantly. In May, the export volume of refined lead was 5555 tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.9% and a year - on - year increase of 118.41%. The total import volume of Chinese lead ingots (crude lead + refined lead) was 11830 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.16% and a year - on - year increase of 103.51%. The import volume of refined lead was 4410.959 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.82% and a year - on - year increase of 3058.56%. The import volume of crude lead was 7420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.80% and a year - on - year increase of 31.16% [41][43] - **Demand - Processing Fee**: The processing fee of domestic lead concentrate decreased, and the processing fee of imported ore also decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the average national processing price of lead concentrate was 560 yuan per ton, and the average monthly value of the processing fee TC of lead concentrate (Pb60 imported) was - 50 dollars per thousand tons [45][47] - **Demand - Automobile**: The production and sales of automobiles showed a marginal decreasing trend. In May 2025, the domestic automobile production was 2.649 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%; the sales volume was 2.686 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The production of passenger cars was 2.313 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 2.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.8%; the sales volume was 2.352 million vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. The production of commercial vehicles was 336000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%; the sales volume was 335000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 8.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. The production of new energy vehicles was 1.27 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 35%; the sales volume was 1.307 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 36.9%. The export of new energy vehicles was 212000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 6.1% and a year - on - year increase of 120% [49][51] - **Demand - Battery**: The price of batteries remained flat, and the growth rate of the number of public charging piles slowed down. As of May 2025, the number of national charging piles was 4082800. As of July 11, 2025, the average price of waste lead batteries (48V/20AH) in Zhejiang was 394 yuan per group [53][57]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of live pigs increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. In the short - term, the supply is still tight as the mid - month increase in large - scale farm slaughter is slow, and smallholders are reluctant to sell, and the average slaughter weight is decreasing. However, there is supply pressure in the medium - term as the sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle in the third quarter. [6][10] - On the demand side, high temperatures suppress pork purchasing, and with schools on holiday, the terminal sales are slow, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has declined continuously but is higher than last year. Overall, it's the off - season for consumption, and demand is weakening steadily. The slaughter rhythm of farmers and the entry of second - fattening are key factors affecting short - term market conditions. [6] - Currently, tight supply supports a strong price oscillation, but the increase may slow down as the mid - month slaughter volume may recover. In the medium - term, the off - season demand and medium - term supply pressure will limit the price upside. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price increased slightly, with the main contract rising 0.28% weekly. [6][10] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term supply is tight, medium - term has supply pressure; demand is in the off - season and weakening. The slaughter rhythm and second - fattening entry are key short - term factors. [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Interval trading or 9 - 1 positive spread trading. [6] 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The futures price increased slightly this week, and the net short position of the top 20 holders increased. As of July 11, the net short position was 16,877 lots, an increase of 6,313 lots from last week, and there were 447 futures warrants, a decrease of 3 from last week. [10][12][16] 3.2.2. Spot Market - **Live Pig and Piglet Prices**: The national average live pig price was 14.92 yuan/kg this week, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/kg from last week but an increase of 4.48% from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 34.03 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week but a decrease of 0.32% from last month. [27] - **Pork and Sow Prices**: The national average pork price was 25.35 yuan/kg in the week of July 3, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.52 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week. [31] - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of July 2, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 6.21, an increase of 0.08 from the previous week, but still below the break - even point. [36] 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In May 2025, the inventory of breeding sows increased. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data showed that the inventory was 40.42 million heads at the end of May, a 0.1% month - on - month increase and a 1.15% year - on - year increase, reaching 103.6% of the normal level. Mysteel data also showed an increase in both large - scale farms and small - scale farms. [41] - **Live Pig Inventory**: In Q1 2023, the live pig inventory was 417.31 million heads, a decrease of 10.12 million heads from the end of the previous quarter but an increase of 8.81 million heads year - on - year. In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small - scale farms increased month - on - month according to Mysteel data. [44] - **Slaughter Volume and Weight**: In May, the slaughter volume of sample enterprises decreased month - on - month, and the average slaughter weight decreased. The average slaughter weight of national ternary hybrid live pigs this week was 123.50 kg, a slight decrease of 0.02 kg from last week. [49] 3.3.2. Industry Profit - **Livestock Farming Profit**: As of July 11, the profit of purchasing piglets for fattening was 31.6 yuan/head, an increase of 57.86 yuan/head week - on - week; the profit of self - breeding and self - fattening was 133.87 yuan/head, an increase of 14.15 yuan/head week - on - week. [54] - **Poultry Farming Profit**: As of July 11, the profit of laying hens was - 0.69 yuan/head, with the loss increasing by 0.11 yuan/head week - on - week, and the profit of 817 meat - hybrid chickens was - 0.92 yuan/head. [54] 3.3.3. Domestic Market - In the first five months of 2025, China imported a total of 450,000 tons of pork, with a monthly average of 90,000 tons, a 4.65% year - on - year increase, and it was at a historically low level during the same period. [55][59] 3.3.4. Substitute Products - As of the week of July 11, the price of white - striped chickens was 13.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of July 10, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/kg from last week. [62] 3.3.5. Feed - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of July 11, the spot price of soybean meal was 2,914.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43 yuan/ton from the previous week; the price of corn was 2,421.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.7 yuan/ton from the previous week. [68] - **Feed Index and Price**: As of July 11, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 935.32, a 1.63% decrease from last week. The price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. [71] - **Feed Production**: In May 2025, the monthly feed production was 27.621 million tons, an increase of 0.981 million tons month - on - month. [76] 3.3.6. CPI - As of June 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year. [80] 3.3.7. Downstream - **Slaughter Enterprises**: In the 28th week, the operating rate of slaughter enterprises was 25.22%, a decrease of 1.28 percentage points from last week but 5.48 percentage points higher year - on - year. As of Thursday this week, the frozen product storage rate of key domestic slaughter enterprises was 17.46%, an increase of 3% from last week. [83] - **Slaughter Volume and Catering**: In May 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 32.16 million heads, a 4.52% increase from the previous month. The national catering revenue in May was 457.82 billion yuan, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. [88] 3.3.8. Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided. [89][91]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, the precious metals market is driven by policy expectations and risk - aversion sentiment. The progress of tariff negotiations and the Fed's policy path are key variables. In the medium - to long - term, the supporting logic for precious metals remains unchanged due to factors like fiscal deficit monetization risks in the US [8]. - **Gold Outlook**: Short - term, gold may see increased safe - haven demand if tariff agreements are not reached by August 1st; otherwise, it may continue to fluctuate. The Fed's policy and real interest rates will dominate price movements. Long - term, factors such as the US fiscal deficit and dollar credit risks support gold [8]. - **Silver Outlook**: Silver has been strong recently, supported by long - term supply - demand tightness. However, there is short - term callback pressure due to uncertain inflation prospects and reduced speculative long positions [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: Gold prices fluctuated this week. Threats of new tariffs by Trump initially pushed up gold, but the rebound of the dollar and rising US Treasury yields limited the upside. Later, improved economic data and profit - taking by some long - positions pressured gold. The Fed's mixed signals also increased price volatility. Silver has been relatively strong, but there is short - term callback pressure [8]. - **Fund Flows**: Global gold ETFs added $38 billion in the first half of the year, and central bank gold purchases continued. However, CFTC speculative net long positions declined, indicating intensified short - term capital games [8]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, the market is driven by policy and risk - aversion. Medium - to long - term, the supporting factors for precious metals remain [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of July 11, 2025, COMEX silver rose 2.51% to $38.015 per ounce, and Shanghai silver futures rose 1.07% to 9040 yuan per kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.02% to $3343.7 per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures fell 0.25% to 773.56 yuan per gram [11]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 10, 2025, SLV silver ETF holdings increased 0.3% to 14,890 tons, and SPDR gold ETF holdings increased 0.1% to 948.81 tons [16]. - **COMEX Positions**: As of July 1, 2025, COMEX gold total positions rose 0.62% and net positions rose 3.58%. COMEX silver total positions fell 6.33% and net positions rose 0.72% [21]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 1, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased 1% and non - commercial short positions decreased 7.24% [26]. - **Basis**: As of July 10, 2025, the gold basis rose 25.68% to - 4.08 yuan per gram, and the silver basis rose 41.18% to - 20 yuan per kilogram [29]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, 2025, COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased, while Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver inventories increased [34]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand - **Silver Industry**: As of May 2025, Chinese silver imports decreased by 2.46%, while silver ore imports increased by 10.54%. In May 2025, the monthly output of integrated circuits increased by 11.5% [40][45]. - **Silver Supply - Demand**: In 2024, silver industrial demand rose 4%, coin and bar demand fell 22%, and ETF net investment demand turned positive. Total demand fell 3%. Supply increased 2%, and the supply - demand gap decreased by 26% [51][55]. - **Gold Industry**: As of July 10, 2025, gold recycling and jewelry prices decreased slightly [61]. - **Gold Supply - Demand**: In Q1 2025, gold industrial demand increased, investment demand increased by 71.93%, jewelry demand decreased by 10.47%, and total demand increased by 7.12% [67]. 3.4 Macroeconomic and Options - **Macroeconomic Data**: This week, the US dollar index rose, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was flat, the 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility decreased, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio continued to rise. The 10 - year break - even inflation rate in the US declined slightly [69][74][77]. - **Central Bank Actions**: In July 2025, the Chinese central bank increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons for the eighth consecutive month [81].

Report Information - Report Title: Apple Market Weekly Report - Low Inventory Provides Support, Prices Continue to Fluctuate Slightly Stronger [2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 0.97%. New - season apples are expected to have a national output of 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% increase from the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 9, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 914900 tons, with a slower year - on - year shipment speed. Although summer fruits impact apple demand, the current low inventory strongly supports prices, and the market is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. It is recommended to go long on the Apple 2510 contract at low prices [6][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 0.97% this week [6][11]. - **Market Outlook**: The expected national apple output is 3736.64 million tons, a 2.35% increase. As of July 9, the inventory was 914900 tons, with a slower year - on - year shipment speed. Summer fruits impact apple demand, but low inventory supports prices, and the market is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker. Follow - up attention should be paid to production [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the Apple 2510 contract at low prices [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Monitor the de - stocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 0.97% this week [6][11]. - **Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of this week, the net long position of the top 20 in apple futures was 8549 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [17]. 3.3 Spot Market - As of July 10, 2025, the mainstream price of Shandong Yantai Qixia paper - bagged Red Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - produced fruits was 4 yuan per catty, and the price of Shandong Yiyuan paper - bagged 75 and above Fuji apples was 2.4 yuan per catty [20]. 3.4 Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: As of July 9, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 914900 tons, a decrease of 78100 tons from last week. The de - stocking speed in Shandong was slower year - on - year, while that in Shaanxi was slightly faster than last week [28]. - **Demand Side**: - As of July 10, the average daily early - morning arrival of vehicles at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased, and the profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.9 yuan per catty [32]. - As of July 4, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.54 yuan per kilogram, a 0.32% increase, and the wholesale price of apples was 9.76 yuan per kilogram, a 0.31% increase [35]. - As of July 4, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 types of fruits was 7.35 yuan per kilogram, a 1.47% decrease [39]. - In May 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 39400 tons, a 26.36% month - on - month decrease and a 9.22% year - on - year decrease [43]. 3.5 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money options for apples this week is presented in the relevant chart, but no specific data is given [44]. 3.6 Futures - Stock Correlation - The price - earnings ratio chart of Honghui Fruit is presented, but no specific analysis is provided [46].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.07.11」 红枣市场周报 资金聚焦天气，关注二茬果情况 研究员：张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证Z0018457 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 目录 2、消费端 3 行情回顾：本周郑枣主力价格冲高回落，周度跌幅约2.34% 行情展望：随着天气转热，时令鲜果上市，对红枣等滋补类产品形成替代，红 枣需求季节性淡季，库存消化缓慢。据Mysteel农产品调研数据统计，第27周36 家样本点物理库存在10520吨，较上周减少168吨，环比减少1.57%，同比增加 71.08%。消费淡季，且陈果库存较高，压制价格偏弱运行。产区正值坐果期，当 前枣树长势相对良好，产量难以确定，关注二茬花果情况。策略建议：操作上 ，建议郑枣2509合约震荡看待。 「 期现市场情况」 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场及期股关联 「 周度要点小结」 未来交易提示： 1、天气影响 本周红枣期货价格走势 图1、郑枣主力合约价格走势 本周郑枣主力价格先抑后扬，周度涨幅约1.78%。 4 来源：郑商所 瑞达期货研究院 「 期现市场情况」 本周 ...