1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic cotton market has relatively sufficient supply as the national cotton inspection volume has exceeded 6 million tons, and the ginning mills' lint processing is nearly finished. The orders for medium - and high - count yarns from downstream textile enterprises are stable, with most enterprises making just - in - time replenishments. Some regional warehouses have seen a slight decrease in inventory, and overall outbound shipments are good, but the national commercial inventory is expected to continue increasing. - There are growing expectations of a reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, and the new cycle of target price subsidies provides a bottom - line support. In the short term, the upward driving force for cotton prices remains unchanged, and potential risks and correction opportunities should be monitored. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,740 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 20,795 yuan/ton, down 255 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 162,774 lots, an increase of 27,643 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 2,298 lots, an increase of 203 lots. - The main contract positions of cotton were 862,891 lots, a decrease of 62,575 lots; the main contract positions of cotton yarn were 17,043 lots, a decrease of 906 lots. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 7,189 lots, an increase of 140 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 20 lots, unchanged. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,992 yuan/ton, an increase of 208 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 21,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The arrival price of imported cotton (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 12,599 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 21,059 yuan/ton, an increase of 101 yuan. - The arrival price of imported cotton (FCIndexM:sliding duty) was 13,729 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the arrival price of imported pure - combed 32 - count cotton yarn was 22,387 yuan/ton, an increase of 103 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,308 yuan/ton, down 208 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton was 850,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 120,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 150,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 2,263 yuan/ton, an increase of 233 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton was 4.6836 million tons, an increase of 1.753 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn were 26.33 days, an increase of 0.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 32.34 days, an increase of 0.37 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.81 billion meters, an increase of 0.19 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.039 million tons, an increase of 0.038 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, an increase of 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 12,275,733 thousand US dollars, an increase of 1,017,314.08 thousand US dollars. [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton was 15.87%, an increase of 2.74%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton was 15.87%, an increase of 2.73%. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 9.63%, an increase of 0.32%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.53%, an increase of 0.27%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of the week of January 4, the inventory of imported cotton in major ports increased by 0.53% week - on - week, with a total inventory of 397,300 tons. Among them, the inventory in Shandong's Qingdao, Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses was 334,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.48%, the inventory in Jiangsu's Zhangjiagang port and surrounding warehouses was about 34,100 tons, and the inventory in other ports was about 29,200 tons. This week, the arrivals were mainly Brazilian and Australian cotton, and the quotas have not been issued yet, with the market in a wait - and - see mode. - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures fell on Wednesday, erasing earlier gains and closing lower due to the stronger US dollar. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed down 0.21 cents, or 0.32%, at 64.85 cents per pound. - Brazil's cotton sowing progress is smooth, significantly faster than the five - year average. As of the week of December 27, 2025, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 cotton was 25.1%, compared with 16.9% the previous week and a five - year average of 15.6%. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is gradually digesting potential negatives, and sentiment has eased. In the short - term, interest rates are expected to continue in a volatile pattern due to the intersection of multiple factors. The government bond issuance scale in Q1 is expected to be roughly the same as in Q1 2025, and the specific proportion of ultra - long bond supply remains to be confirmed. The strong performance of the equity market at the beginning of the year may lead to a short - term profit - taking demand and a market consolidation, which is expected to relieve liquidity pressure. However, the fundamental support may weaken, and the necessity of further loose monetary policies in the short - term has decreased [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.15%, 0.09%, 0.02%, and 0.37% respectively. - **Futures Volumes**: T, TF, and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 10,723, 262, and 12,149 respectively, while TL main contract trading volume increased by 1,357. - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads increased (e.g., TL2603 - 2606, T2603 - 2606), while others decreased (e.g., T03 - TL03, TF03 - T03). - **Futures Positions**: T main contract open interest increased by 2,197, TF and TS main contract open interests decreased by 4,357 and 889 respectively, and TL main contract open interest decreased by 2,129 [2] 3.2 Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds increased, such as 250018.IB (up 0.0793), 220025.IB (up 0.0642), etc. - **Active Bonds**: The yields of 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds increased by 3.50bp, 1.25bp, 1.25bp, and 1.55bp respectively, while the 1y yield remained unchanged [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 2.91bp, Shibor overnight rate increased by 0.40bp; silver - pledged 7 - day rate decreased by 5.62bp, Shibor 7 - day rate increased by 1.20bp; silver - pledged 14 - day rate increased by 1.67bp, Shibor 14 - day rate increased by 2.90bp. - **LPR Rates**: 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - On January 8, the central bank will conduct 1100 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with 1100 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase maturing this month, achieving an equal - amount offset and the third consecutive month of equal - amount roll - over [2] 3.5 Industry News - China's foreign exchange reserves reached a ten - year high in December 2025, with a scale of 3357.9 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.15 billion US dollars. Gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces month - on - month, marking the 14th consecutive month of increase. - Eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'", aiming to achieve a safe and reliable supply of key core technologies in artificial intelligence by 2027 [2][3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short-term supply pressure decreases, providing support for prices, but the demand-side boost weakens, and the supply-demand game continues, with the overall market moving in an oscillatory manner. The live hog 2603 contract closed down 0.8% on the day, with frequent short-term fluctuations and no strong trend [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs was 11,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 171,271 lots, a decrease of 144 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 918 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -52,290 lots, a decrease of 108 lots [2] Spot Market - The live hog price in Zhumadian, Henan was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Siping, Jilin it was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; in Yunfu, Guangdong it was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main live hog basis was 1,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly live hog inventory was 43,680 million heads, an increase of 1,233 heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 3,990 million heads, a decrease of 45 heads [2] Industry Situation - The year-on-year increase in CPI was 0.5%; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; the corn spot price decreased by 1.96%; the DCE pig feed cost index was 906.78, an increase of 2.78; the monthly feed output was 29,779,000 tons, an increase of 209,000 tons; the price of二元能繁母猪 was 1,429 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was -48.35 yuan/head, an increase of 95.52 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self-reared live hogs was -34.59 yuan/head; the monthly pork import volume was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the average price of white-striped chickens in the main producing areas was 14.1 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales was 39.57 billion yuan; the monthly slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 60.57 million heads, an increase of 8.58 million heads [2] Industry News - According to Shanghai Ganglian's key breeding enterprise sample data, the daily live hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide on January 8, 2026 was 277,238 heads, an increase of 4.27% from the previous day. According to Mysteel data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in January decreased month-on-month, and the supply of fattened pigs was tight. On the demand side, it is currently the peak demand season, but after the New Year's Day stocking ended, demand declined from a small peak, and the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases was limited [2]

Report Overview - The report is a methanol industry daily report dated January 8, 2026, provided by Ruida Futures [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Report's Core View - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2300 in the short - term. There is an expected reduction in imports in January, and port methanol inventory may decline from its high level. The average weekly operation rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins has slightly increased, but there is an expectation of a load reduction in the MTO industry as the maintenance plan in East China is implemented [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2231 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is - 4 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 870199 lots, an increase of 51352 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 176203 lots, a decrease of 38027 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8205, unchanged [3] 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2255 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1857.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan. The East - Northwest price difference is 397.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 12 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 268 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; in Southeast Asia, it is 322 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 54 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.56 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.13 dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 112.33 tons, up 7.62 tons; in South China ports, it is 41.39 tons, down 1.64 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 7.86 yuan/ton, up 18.37 yuan. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, down 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 447700 tons, up 25100 tons. The methanol enterprise operation rate is 90.31%, down 0.93% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate is 38.24%, down 4.19%; the dimethyl ether operation rate is 3.6%, down 3.49%; the acetic acid operation rate is 80.3%, up 2.71%; the MTBE operation rate is 68.01%, unchanged; the olefin operation rate is 87.46%, down 1.8%. The methanol - to - olefins profit on the futures market is - 1009 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.82%, up 0.65%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.9%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.19%, up 0.64%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.19%, up 0.62% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 7, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 44.77 tons, up 2.51 tons (a 5.94% increase); the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 23.75 tons, up 2.95 tons (a 14.16% increase). The total inventory in Chinese methanol ports is 153.72 tons, up 4.08 tons. East China has accumulated inventory (up 5.72 tons), while South China has reduced inventory (down 1.64 tons). Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts in domestic methanol is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall production [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai Tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustments. It is necessary to pay attention to the support of MA5 and whether it can stand firm at the 350,000 - yuan mark [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 349,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,410 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai Tin is - 670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 44,323 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 203 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 38,798 lots, a decrease of 5,171 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 370 lots, an increase of 532 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,936 tons, a decrease of 541 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 120 tons, a decrease of 35 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of tin are 6,788 tons, an increase of 8 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 355,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 900 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 352,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,970 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai Tin contract is - 3,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,670 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 52 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 11,600 tons, an increase of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 343,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 14,000 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 347,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 14,000 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 226,630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 830 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.3901 million tons, an increase of 144,700 tons. The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 222,600 tons, an increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Eight departments plan to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals, aiming to achieve safe and reliable supply of key core technologies in artificial intelligence in China by 2027. The Bloomberg Commodity Index will conduct its annual weight re - balancing from January 8th to 14th, and the "technical selling" of passive funds may cause a liquidity shock. In the United States, the ADP employment in December increased by 41,000, reversing the decline in November but lower than the expected increase. The JOLTS job openings in November dropped to a more - than - one - year low, and for the first time in four years, the number was less than the number of unemployed, with recruitment slowing down. The ISM Services PMI in December reached a more - than - one - year high of 54.4, indicating robust demand and a rebound in recruitment [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, the import supply of domestic tin ore is still relatively tight, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply of tin ore, but the supply in other regions is still highly unstable, and the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. In the smelting sector, the current tin ore raw materials are in short supply, and the raw material inventory of most enterprises is still low. Most enterprises are in a loss - making situation, and it is expected that the output of refined tin will continue to be restricted, with no year - on - year increase. In terms of imports, the export volume of Indonesia increased significantly in November, alleviating concerns about supply constraints in Indonesia, but the import window remains closed. On the demand side, downstream enterprises have been purchasing on - demand recently, the inventory has continued to decline, and the spot premium is 500 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has increased [3]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - The candlestick chart shows a lower - shadow line with a decrease in positions, and the bullish sentiment has declined [3].

免责声明 整，关注MA10支撑。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 沪镍产业日报 2026-01-08 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 136440 | -11280 02-03月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -150 | 380 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 17655 | -775 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 128055 | -4897 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -65174 | -13231 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 275634 | 20088 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 45544 | 1090 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 11580 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The commodity market atmosphere is warm, with most industrial products rising during the day. V2605 rose 2.01% to close at 4,972 yuan/ton. Recently, the production capacity utilization rate of PVC has increased due to the restart of some devices. However, the downstream PVC products' operating rate has decreased, and the social inventory has slightly accumulated at a high level. The costs of calcium carbide and ethylene processes have decreased, and the profits have been slightly repaired. The industry's operating rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level, while the operating rate of downstream hard products such as pipes and profiles may continue to decline. The overseas market competition is fierce, and export support is limited. Affected by the improvement of news and market expectations, the PVC futures valuation has been repaired, and the spot is at a discount to the main contract. The PVC market is expected to fluctuate widely, with the daily range expected to be around 4,850 - 5,050 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,972 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan; the trading volume was 1,552,944 lots, down 187,650 lots; the open interest was 1,032,593 lots, up 6,395 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -92,242 lots, down 13,461 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,675 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,629.23 yuan/ton, up 136.54 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,648.75 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 640 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 600 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 660 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 292 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in the central, northern, and northwestern regions remained unchanged at 2,700 yuan/ton, 2,606.67 yuan/ton, and 2,415 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mid - prices of VCM and EDC in CFR Far East and CFR Southeast Asia also remained unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC plants increased by 1.4% to 78.63% from December 27 to January 2. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.13% to 78.36%, while the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC increased by 5.01% to 79.29%. The total social inventory of PVC was 52.52 million tons, up 1.14 million tons. The inventory in the East China region was 48.06 million tons, up 1.15 million tons; the inventory in the South China region was 4.46 million tons, down 0.01 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.9, down 0.53. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, up 43.9531 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.560662 billion square meters, up 31.2717 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 420.2457 billion yuan, up 30.416 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 25.04%, up 0.19%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 19.34%, up 0.18%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 18.74%, up 1.65%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 18.74%, up 1.64% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From December 27 to January 2, the operating rate of PVC plants increased by 1.4% to 78.63%. The operating rate of PVC downstream decreased by 0.58% to 43.94%, with the pipe operating rate decreasing by 0.6% to 35.6% and the profile operating rate decreasing by 0.79% to 29.78%. As of January 2, the PVC social inventory was 1.0767 million tons, up 1.46% from last week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For corn, wait for the USDA monthly supply - demand report and quarterly grain inventory report. The domestic corn market shows different situations in different regions. The corn acquisition in the Northeast has passed half, and after the New Year's Day, the reserve corn and imported corn are being put into the market. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory is rising, and feed enterprises maintain rigid procurement. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market supply increases as the Spring Festival approaches. The corn futures price is relatively volatile recently, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - For corn starch, as of January 7, the enterprise inventory is at a high level in the same period, with a supply pressure. However, the demand increases as some downstream customers turn to corn starch due to the large increase in the price of tapioca starch. The starch price has been oscillating recently, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2248 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan compared to the previous period. Corn monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 21 yuan/ton, and corn starch monthly spread (3 - 5) is - 43 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures positions of active contracts: 1011495 hands for yellow corn and 195499 hands for corn starch. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for corn starch are - 172821 hands, a decrease of 4995 hands [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: - 7740 hands for yellow corn and 31655 hands for corn starch. The CS - C spread of the main contract is 320 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Outer - market Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 443.75 cents/bushel, down 0.75 cents. CBOT corn total positions (weekly) are 1543015 contracts, an increase of 26463 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn are 53192 contracts, a decrease of 11680 contracts [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2353.33 yuan/ton, down 1.18 yuan. The factory - gate price of corn starch in Changchun is 2570 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it is 2750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Shijiazhuang, it is 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The import price of corn (CIF) is 2050.4 yuan/ton, down 0.65 yuan. The international freight of imported corn is 0 dollars/ton. The basis of the main corn starch contract is 41 yuan, down 37 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 425.53 million hectares, and the predicted output is 36.44 million tons, an increase of 0.55 million tons. In Brazil, the sown area is 53 million hectares, and the output is 7.5 million tons; in China, the sown area is 295 million hectares, and the output is 44.3 million tons; in Ukraine, the output is 32 million tons [2]. - The corn inventory in southern ports is 15.6 million tons, and the deep - processing corn inventory is 349.4 million tons, an increase of 11.6 million tons [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The corn inventory in northern ports is 157 million tons, a decrease of 31 million tons. The weekly inventory of starch enterprises is 112.5 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of corn is 36 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 19.17 million tons, an increase of 6.39 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2977.9 million tons. The processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 8 yuan/ton, in Hebei is 65 yuan/ton, and in Jilin is - 56 yuan/ton [2]. - The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 63.5%, down 1.38 percentage points, and the starch enterprise operating rate is 59.37%, down 0.49 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 11.04%, down 0.04 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.29%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 9.98%, down 0.04 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 9.98%, down 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Private consulting firm Safras & Mercado's survey shows that Brazil's corn export volume in January may reach 264.7 million tons, far lower than 615.8 million tons in December 2025 [2]. - Broker StoneX says Brazil's first - season corn output in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 26 million tons, a 0.5% decrease from the December forecast, mainly due to the output reduction in Santa Catarina state [2]. 3.9 Key Points to Follow - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday. Also, focus on the impact of downstream stockpiling on corn starch prices [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Some plant recoveries drive the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to increase month - on - month. Alumina's operating rate decreases month - on - month but the overall operating load remains high; the operating rate of viscose staple fiber and the printing and dyeing industry decline. Liquid caustic soda factory inventories accumulate month - on - month, higher than the same period in previous years. Affected by the decline in caustic soda prices, Shandong chlor - alkali profits narrow but remain in a theoretical profit state. In January, the planned maintenance capacity of chlor - alkali is small, and domestic chlor - alkali plants are expected to maintain a high operating state. In the short term, the operating load of alumina enterprises remains basically stable, and non - aluminum downstream may maintain rigid demand purchases with little change. The overall supply and demand of liquid caustic soda in the spot market is still relatively loose, and the prices of the main purchase price and market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong have recently declined. There are many alumina plants planned to be put into operation in the first half of the year, but the continuous low - profit situation in the industry strengthens the expectation of future production cuts. Shaanxi may implement differential electricity prices in July, and the ECU cost in the northwest region is expected to rise. In the short term, SH2603 is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the support around 2150 and the pressure around 2330 [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2261 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan; the main contract position of caustic soda is 162,076 lots, up 2,113 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is - 15,005 lots, down 458 lots; the main contract trading volume of caustic soda is 513,709 lots, up 169,482 lots; the closing price of the January contract is 1967 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the closing price of the May contract is 2405 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 688 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 780 yuan/ton, unchanged; the converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2150 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the basis of caustic soda is - 111 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the northwest, it is 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal is 642 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it is 150 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina is 2585 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From December 27th to January 2nd, the capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda was 86.4%, up 0.4% month - on - month; the operating rate of alumina decreased 0.47% month - on - month to 84.67%, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased 1.61% month - on - month to 85.42%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing decreased 0.47% month - on - month to 60.81%. The commodity market atmosphere is warm, and industrial products mainly rose during the day, with SH2603 rising 4.34% to close at 2261 yuan/ton. As of January 2nd, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 485,700 tons (wet tons), up 9.84% month - on - month. From December 25th to January 4th, the weekly average profit of Shandong chlor - alkali was 153 yuan/ton, lower than the previous period [3]

热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/7 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,332 | +69↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1377887 | +103802↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -17,707 | -39959↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -21 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日 ...