Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, with high hopes for "anti - involution" and strengthened optimistic expectations for macro - policies. The iron ore market is under pressure due to potential iron - water production decline and high port trade - mine inventory, but the short - term price is supported by inventory decline [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market News**: The China Iron and Steel Association called on enterprises to control production and stabilize prices, and some Hebei steel mills are required to reduce production due to the parade. These news boosted the threaded steel price, which increased in volume and reached a new stage high [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the production and apparent demand of threaded steel increased, the factory inventory decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory increased for the second consecutive week. The total inventory of the five major varieties increased, and the apparent demand declined. In the summer high - temperature season, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is expected to rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a significant correction, the futures price increased in volume, indicating strong bullish power [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly. For empty - position investors, buy on dips, conduct short - term trading, and set stop - losses and take - profits in a timely manner [2]. - **Related Data**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coils, as well as their spot prices, all increased. The basis and spreads of various varieties showed different degrees of change. The production, inventory, and trading volume data of steel also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but the iron - water production is expected to decline significantly in the short term. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, and the future arrival volume is expected to remain high. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the port trade - mine inventory is high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term adjustment, the futures price stabilized and rebounded [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try to go long on dips in the short term and set stop - losses and take - profits in a timely manner [5]. - **Related Data**: The prices of various iron ore varieties, basis, spreads, shipment volume, freight rates, exchange rates, inventory, and production data all showed different degrees of change [5]. 3. Industry News - The fourth round of coke price increase was fully implemented, with different price adjustments in Shandong and Hebei markets [8]. - From July 21st to 27th, 2024, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased compared with last Monday due to a decline in arrival volume [8]. - The China Iron and Steel Association called on enterprises to continue to adhere to the "Three - Fixed and Three - No" principle, control production, and stabilize prices, and promote self - discipline in key steel product markets [9]. - Hainan Development's subsidiary, Haikong Sanxin, recently reduced production by shutting down a 550 - ton kiln and five deep - processing production lines [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trading agreements are reached in batches, the risk - aversion demand continues to decline, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy increases. Strong employment and inflation suppress the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and slightly weaker. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.24%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.33% [1]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreements reduce risk - aversion demand, and the US economic stagflation risk and strong employment and inflation suppress interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - aversion**: Sino - US trade talks and US - EU agreement reduce trade risks [1]. - **Monetary**: The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this month. The market expects the next Fed rate cut to be in September, and the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields are under upward pressure [1]. - **Commodity**: The CRB commodity index rebounds under pressure, and the weak RMB benefits domestic prices [1]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - **Data**: Various gold - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex gold main contract closed at $3314.00 per ounce, down 0.73% from the previous day [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai gold among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver [4]. - **Fund and Inventory**: CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have increased their positions again, and the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly [4]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [5]. - **Data**: Various silver - related data such as international and domestic prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, etc. are provided. For example, Comex silver main contract closed at $38.33 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.01% from the previous day [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net - long and net - short positions of Shanghai silver among futures companies' members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **US Monetary Policy**: Federal fund target rate upper limit, discount rate, reserve balance interest rate, etc. have changed. The Fed's total assets are $67089.39 billion, down $16.72 billion from the previous period [7]. - **Inflation Data**: US inflation data such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, etc. show certain changes. For example, the year - on - year CPI is 2.70%, up 0.30 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - **Economic Growth**: US economic growth data such as GDP, unemployment rate, non - farm employment, etc. are presented. GDP's annualized year - on - year growth is 1.90%, down 1.00 percentage points from the previous period [9]. - **Other Data**: Data on various aspects such as international trade, central bank gold reserves, and risk - aversion and commodity - related indexes are provided [9][10]. - **Interest Rate Expectation**: The latest Fed interest rate expectations based on the CME FedWatch tool are given, showing the probability distribution of different interest - rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today, precious metals showed a weak and volatile trend, with the main contract of Shanghai Gold closing down 0.33% and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closing down 1.71%. The short - term trade agreements are reached in batches, while the risks of economic recession and geopolitical fluctuations still exist; the risk of stagflation in the US economy is increasing, and the strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectations of interest rate cuts. It is expected that precious metals will be weak in gold and strong in silver in the short - term, fluctuate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. The CFTC net long position in silver and the iShare Silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased recently [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold - **Price Performance**: Comex gold's main contract closed at $3338.50 per ounce, down $32.80 (-0.97%); London gold was at $3343.50 per ounce, down $22.35 (-0.66%); Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 774.78 yuan per gram, down 2.54 yuan (-0.33%); Gold T + D closed at 771.58 yuan per gram, down 2.03 yuan (-0.26%) [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex gold's position was 489,423 lots (100 ounces per lot), an increase of 46,279 lots (10.44%); Shanghai Gold's main contract position was 209,675 lots (kilograms per lot), down 2,176 lots (-1.03%); Gold TD's position was 207,044 lots (kilograms per lot), down 2,086 lots (-1.00%). LBMA's gold inventory was 8,598 tons, unchanged; Comex gold inventory was 1,152 tons, down 13 tons (-1.08%); Shanghai Gold's inventory was 18 tons, up 0.28 tons (1.57%) [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhongcai Futures ranked first with 36,411 lots, an increase of 1,769 lots. Among the top 10 net short positions, Jinrui Futures ranked first with 3,733 lots, an increase of 225 lots [3] 3.2 Silver - **Price Performance**: Comex silver's main contract closed at $38.33 per ounce, down $0.96 (-2.44%); London silver was at $38.74 per ounce, down $0.29 (-0.74%); Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 9,212 yuan per kilogram, down 180 yuan (-1.92%); Silver T + D closed at 9,186 yuan per kilogram, down 186 yuan (-1.98%) [5] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex silver's position was 173,679 lots (5000 ounces per lot), an increase of 2,205 lots (1.29%); Shanghai Silver's main contract position was 5,976,315 lots (kilograms per lot), down 786,090 lots (-11.62%); Silver TD's position was 3,447,542 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 67,342 lots (1.99%). The total visible inventory was 41,850 tons, an increase of 54 tons (0.13%) [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies' members in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, CITIC Futures ranked first with 40,772 lots, an increase of 2,153 lots. Among the top 10 net short positions, Jinrui Futures ranked first with 10,982 lots, a decrease of 1,593 lots [6] 3.3 Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate was 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points; the discount rate was 4.50%, down 0.25 percentage points; the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) was 4.40%, down 0.25 percentage points; the Fed's total assets were $6,708.939 billion, down $0.1672 billion (-0.00%); M2's year - on - year growth rate was 4.54%, up 0.37 percentage points [7] - **Inflation**: The year - on - year CPI was 2.70%, up 0.30 percentage points; the month - on - month CPI was 0.30%, unchanged; the year - on - year core CPI was 2.90%, up 0.10 percentage points; the month - on - month core CPI was 0.30%, up 0.10 percentage points; the year - on - year PCE price index was 2.34%, up 0.15 percentage points; the year - on - year core PCE price index was 2.68%, up 0.10 percentage points [8][9] - **Economic Growth**: The annualized year - on - year GDP growth rate was 1.90%, down 1.00 percentage points; the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP growth rate was - 0.50%, down 2.90 percentage points; the unemployment rate was 4.10%, down 0.10 percentage points; the monthly change in non - farm payrolls was 147,000, an increase of 3,000 [9] - **Other Data**: The geopolitical risk index was 132.88, unchanged; the VIX index was 15.22, up 0.29 (1.94%); the CRB commodity index was 302.25, down 2.12 (-0.70%); the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.1628, down 0.0184 (-0.26%) [10] 3.4 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability that the federal funds rate will be in the range of 300 - 325 basis points in the meeting on July 30, 2025, is 3.1%, and the probability of 325 - 350 basis points is 96.9%. As time goes on, the probability distribution of the federal funds rate in different ranges shows certain changes [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodity market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. After the Dalian Commodity Exchange restricted the opening of coking coal contracts, coking coal contracts rose and then fell, leading to a full - scale correction in black commodities. In the current summer season, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory is likely to rise. The market has high expectations for "anti - involution" and strengthened optimistic expectations for macro - policies. Futures prices are likely to enter a high - level shock after a significant pull - up and subsequent correction [2]. - For iron ore, the steel mill profitability is acceptable, but the market is in the off - season. Iron water production is under great pressure to decline, and the room for further increase is limited even in the peak season. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, with future arrivals expected to remain high. Although the port inventory is slowly decreasing, the trade ore inventory is high. With the decline of coking coal and coke prices, iron ore is also expected to adjust, and the short - term price is likely to maintain a high - level shock [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Threaded Steel and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Situation**: After the coking coal contract restrictions, black commodities corrected. The production and apparent demand of threaded steel increased last week, with factory inventory decreasing for the second consecutive week and social inventory increasing for the second consecutive week. The total inventory of the five major varieties rose, and the apparent demand declined. In the summer, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory may rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are likely to enter a high - level shock after a significant increase and subsequent correction [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and consider buying at low prices after a full adjustment for short - term operations. Do not chase rising or falling prices for investors with empty positions [2]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Price Data**: The closing prices of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices all increased compared to the previous day and week. For example, the closing price of the threaded steel main contract was 3356 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan (1.88%) from the previous day and 209 yuan (6.64%) from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The social inventory of the five major varieties was 927.08 tons, up 4.97 tons (0.54%) from the previous week; the social inventory of threaded steel was 372.97 tons, up 2.81 tons (0.76%) from the previous week [2]. - **Production Data**: The national building materials steel mill threaded steel production was 211.96 tons, up 2.90 tons (1.39%) from the previous week; the hot - rolled coil production was 317.49 tons, down 3.65 tons (-1.14%) from the previous week [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Market Situation**: The steel mill profitability is around 60%. The iron water production of 247 steel mills is 242.1 tons, down 0.2 tons from the previous week. In the off - season, iron water production is under pressure to decline, and the increase space is limited even in the peak season. The global shipment is high and rising seasonally, and future arrivals are expected to remain high. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the trade ore inventory is high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a strong rise, the futures price has been falling, and it is likely to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing rising prices, and wait patiently for a correction before buying at low prices for short - term operations [4]. - **Data Highlights**: - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 802.5 yuan/dry ton, up 17.5 yuan (2.23%) from the previous week; the price of Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 766 yuan/wet ton, down 9 yuan (-1.16%) from the previous day but up 16 yuan (2.13%) from the previous week [4]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: The Australian iron ore shipment was 1404.9 tons, down 165.0 tons (-10.51%) from the previous week; the Brazilian iron ore shipment was 833.2 tons, up 123.3 tons (17.37%) from the previous week. The northern six - port arrival volume was 1389.2 tons, up 241.3 tons (21.02%) from the previous week [4]. **III. Industry News** - At the "Seminar on Building a Healthy Ecosystem: Coping with Malicious Industry Involution" hosted by leading manganese - based enterprises, relevant enterprises reached two preliminary consensuses: 30% energy - saving and emission - reduction for high, medium, low, and micro - carbon ferromanganese production enterprises, and 40% for silicomanganese alloy production enterprises. To ensure stable production costs after production cuts, several ferroalloy production enterprises have actively increased their manganese ore reserves, locking in nearly one million tons of raw materials [6]. - The shipment of Ghanaian manganese ore has been affected by the rainy season since May. The shipments in May - July were 350,000 tons, 277,000 tons, and 380,000 tons respectively, with a reduction of 47%, 58%, and 43% compared to the monthly average output. The impact of the rainy season in Ghana is expected to last until November [6]. **IV. Steel Mill and Port Data** - For 247 steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, flat compared to the previous week and 1.13 percentage points higher than last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week but 1.20 percentage points higher than last year; the profitability rate was 63.64%, up 3.47 percentage points from the previous week and 48.49 percentage points higher than last year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4223 million tons, down 0.21 million tons from the previous week but 2.62 million tons higher than last year [7]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 13.79038 million tons, up 51,700 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.1515 million tons, down 75,900 tons. The total inventory at 47 ports was 14.39568 million tons, up 141,700 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2933 million tons, down 94,300 tons [7]. - Steel mills in Hebei and Shandong markets raised the purchase price of coke by 50/55 yuan/ton. After the adjustment, the price of first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1420 yuan/ton, and the price of first - grade dry - quenched coke was 1770 yuan/ton [7]. - According to Steel Silver E - commerce, the total urban inventory this week was 7.5103 million tons, up 116,600 tons (+1.58%) from the previous week; the inventory of construction steel was 3.9746 million tons, up 42,900 tons (+1.09%) from the previous week [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Gold is weak and silver is strong, mainly due to the short - term high - level callback of risk - aversion demand, and the possibility of the Fed's near - term interest rate cut is eliminated. The expected supply - demand gap of silver still exists, and the inflation expectation rebounds due to the trade war, improving the expected industrial demand for silver [7]. - Medium - term: The risk of economic recession increases, which may force the interest - rate cut logic to be in the making. Precious metals will continue to fluctuate at a high level [7][9]. - Long - term: The global trade war promotes the reconstruction of the economic and political system and accelerates the reconstruction of the monetary system. There is still an upward trend for precious metals in the process of "de - dollarization" [7][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Risk - aversion Attribute - Trade agreements are reached in batches, and the negotiation of the US - EU trade agreement has made progress. The geopolitical risk eases, weakening the risk - aversion demand [2]. - Trump's threats to the Fed's independence have eased market concerns [2]. 2. Monetary Attribute - US economic data is mixed. In June, existing home sales dropped to a nine - month low, while the number of initial jobless claims last week hit a three - month low [3]. - The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged, and the optimistic economic forecast triggers speculation about the end of interest rate cuts. The Fed is more divided and remains cautious about interest rate cuts. The market expects the next Fed interest rate cut to be stable until September, and the total interest rate cut space in 2025 drops to about 50 basis points. The decline of the US dollar index and US bond yields is blocked [3]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Although gold jewelry consumption is suppressed by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars offsets some of the impact. Emerging market central banks' "de - dollarization" strategy promotes central bank gold - buying demand to remain high [4]. - The World Silver Association expects that due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply, the global silver supply - demand gap in 2025 will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3,658 tons) [4]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of CFTC managed funds in gold and silver have increased again. Domestic Shanghai gold futures companies have reduced their net long positions at a high level, and Shanghai silver institutions have slightly reduced their net long positions. The world's largest gold ETF and silver ETF have ended their long - term downward trends and slowly increased their positions [5]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution - Short - term: Gold is weak and silver is strong. - Medium - term: Precious metals will continue to fluctuate at a high level. - Long - term: Precious metals show an upward trend [7][9]. 6. Strategy - Short - term: Gold is weak and silver is strong. - Medium - term: Fluctuate at a high level. - Long - term: Step - by - step upward [7]. 7. Support and Resistance - Shanghai gold main contract: Support at 755 - 760, resistance at 790 - 795. - Shanghai silver main contract: Support at 9000 - 9030, resistance at 9600 - 9630 [7]. 8. 2024 - 2025 Fed Monetary Policy Path Review - From June 2024 to June 2025, the Fed's monetary policy has gone through multiple stages, including keeping interest rates unchanged, cutting interest rates, and adjusting the pace of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. The market's expectation of interest rate cuts has also changed accordingly [10][11][12].

Report Title - "How Long Can the Current 'Anti-Involution' Market Last? - Analysis of the Rising Logic and Future Trends of Black Series Commodities" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting arranged "anti-involution" at the beginning of July, black series commodities have risen significantly. The rise has both general and special characteristics, and the price increase is mainly due to speculating on expectations in advance, which is fundamentally different from the price increase in 2016 [65]. - Whether downstream demand can cooperate after August this year is an important variable to test the "anti-involution" market. Currently, steel and hot metal production remain high, but the terminal apparent demand in the spot market is average, and there is a risk of demand falling short of expectations during the peak season [65]. - From past patterns, in August - October, which is the consumption peak season, if demand is less than expected or the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is weaker than expected, futures prices may experience a deep adjustment [65]. - The current market for some commodities has deviated from fundamental and supply - demand factors and become a situation of capital gaming. There may be a short - term peak, but if "anti-involution" policies continue to advance, the market is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillating trend in the medium term [65]. - The screw - ore ratio is at a low level, and the strategy of going long on the screw - ore ratio has a high win - rate and odds, which is worth attention [65] Summary According to the Directory 1. General and Special Characteristics of the Rise of Black Series Commodities General Characteristics - The seasonality of rebar shows "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". May, August, and September have a high probability of decline, while December, January, and July have a high probability of rise. The seasonal pattern in 2025 is expected to be similar to that in 2014, with a limited rebound from June - July, greater downward pressure from August - October, and a certain rebound at the end of the year [8]. - The overall market maintains a weak oscillation, and there is no obvious long - term trend. It is more appropriate to adopt a medium - term band trading strategy. In July, go long on dips; from August - November, go short on rallies; after November, wait for opportunities to go long on dips in the medium term. In terms of arbitrage, going long on the screw - ore ratio or coil - ore ratio has an advantage in win - rate and odds [10]. Special Characteristics - In June, the market was overly bearish, and prices had fully reflected the consensus expectation, creating the possibility of a rise. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st ignited the price increase, combined with subsequent central city work meetings and optimistic expectations for the Politburo meeting [14]. - Top - level attention to "anti - involution" has led various ministries to introduce relevant policies, covering industries such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, platform enterprises, and ten industries with over - capacity like steel, coal, chemical, building materials, and non - ferrous metals [15][17]. - Compared with the 2015 supply - side reform, the current "anti - involution" is still in the policy - introduction stage, with obvious speculation on expectations but no obvious supply contraction. Due to trade wars and the downturn in the domestic real estate market, it is difficult to see demand expansion in the long term. Whether it can reverse the bearish situation of black and chemical commodities depends on the improvement of terminal demand [19]. 2. Recent Data Interpretation of Steel Price and Basis - The rebar's spot and futures prices have rebounded, and the basis has converged from about 200 at the peak to about 86 [20][23]. - The hot - rolled coil basis has turned negative, with the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts falling from about 140 at the peak to negative values [24][29]. Production - The decline in production is mainly due to low prices and poor expectations in June. If "anti - involution" is not fully implemented and steel mills' profitability improves and the market enters the peak season, production may increase [32]. - According to the Steel Association, pig iron production has rebounded, and crude steel production has decreased slightly year - on - year. Building material production has decreased significantly, while plate production has increased slightly, and the total production has decreased slightly. Independent electric arc furnace production has decreased but is likely to rebound in the future [33][36][39]. Demand - The apparent demand for building materials is poor, while that for plates is good, and the overall demand is similar to the same period last year. Exports have increased overall, but the growth rate has slowed down, mainly driven by the rapid growth of billet exports. However, with the implementation of US tariffs, the export growth rate of billets and steel is likely to decline [42][45][47]. Profit - Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded rapidly, and iron ore prices have also risen, while the increase in finished product prices is relatively small, resulting in a decline in steel mills' gross profit. The larger increase in furnace charge varieties indicates that measures such as production restrictions and "anti - involution" have little impact on the steel production process for now [49]. Iron Ore and Iron Water - Iron ore inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore is relatively high. The 05 contract's screw - ore ratio is near historical extremes, with limited room for further decline. Due to the impact of "anti - involution" on coking coal and coke prices and the relatively stable supply of iron ore, the screw - ore ratio has a large potential for increase [55][59][62]. - Iron water production remains at a high level. The peak production this year was close to 2.5 million tons, setting a record for the same period. Although the proportion of profitable steel mills is not high, it has been rising steadily, which is an important reason for the high - level iron water production. Generally, iron water production experiences a seasonal decline from July - August, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation recently [50][52]. 3. Market Outlook - The current "anti - involution" market is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Whether it can continue depends on the improvement of downstream demand. There is a risk of a short - term peak, but if policies continue to advance, the market is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillating trend in the medium term. The screw - ore ratio strategy is worth attention [65]

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年07月25日08时12分 报告导读： 政策面上，工信部将推出钢铁、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案 ，着力调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能。另有消息称，国家能源局煤炭 司主导严查煤矿超产、整治行业内卷，焦煤连续涨停，对其他黑色板块品种有较强的带动作用 。供需方面，我的钢铁公布的数据显示，本周螺纹钢 产量、表需由降转增，厂库连续第二周减少，社库连续第二周增加。五大品种总库存有所上升，表观需求有所回落。从需求的季节性规律看，在暑 期高温天气，需求将进一步走弱，且库存预计将会进一步回升。目前市场是弱现实和强预期的博弈 ，强预期占主导，对宏观政策的乐观预期也有所 加强。从技术上看，期价大幅拉升后进入高位震荡 操作建议： 暂时维持观望，调整之后再逢低做多，短线操作。空仓的投资者谨慎追涨杀跌 报告导读： 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 3 页 投资咨询系列报告 虽然期价大幅上涨，但现货价格涨幅相对较小，目前钢厂盈利率尚可，样本钢厂盈利面接近 60%，本周 247 家钢厂铁水产量 242.2 万吨，环比上周 下降了 0.1 万吨。目前市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - For investors, the strategy is that conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Today, precious metals were volatile and bullish. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed up 0.90%, and the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed up 1.16%. International and domestic gold prices showed varying degrees of increase, such as the Comex gold main contract closing price rising 0.99% from the previous day and 3.41% from last week [1][2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade war risks, stagflation risks in the US economy, and strong employment and inflation suppressing interest rate cut expectations [1]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Safe - haven Attribute**: Trump has escalated the trade war, the prospect of the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, and the EU is considering using the "nuclear option" to counter the US. China and the US will restart trade talks in Sweden next week [1]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US economic data has weakened, the start of single - family homes has dropped to the lowest level in 11 months, and building permits have also decreased significantly. The market expects the Fed's next interest rate cut to be in September, and the expected total interest rate cut space in 2025 has fallen back to around 50 basis points. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [1]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions have increased, while some inventories have decreased, such as the Comex gold inventory decreasing by 1.08% compared to last week [2]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Gold Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are listed, showing changes in positions of different members [3]. Silver - **Price Performance**: International and domestic silver prices also showed certain trends. For example, the Comex silver main contract closing price rose 1.07% from the previous day and 4.41% from last week [5]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: The price of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions, and the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly decreased [4]. - **Position and Inventory Data**: Comex silver and some domestic silver positions have changed, and the visible inventory has decreased slightly [5]. - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 net long and net short positions of futures company members of Shanghai Silver Futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are presented, with changes in positions of different members [6]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, the discount rate, and the reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous value. The Fed's total assets have decreased slightly, and M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [7]. - **US Economic Data**: Various economic indicators such as inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, and trade have shown different trends. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury real yield has decreased, and the GDP annualized growth rate has decreased [9]. - **Other Data**: Central bank gold reserves in China, the US, and the world remain stable. The proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed, and the gold/foreign exchange reserve ratio has increased. Geopolitical risk and VIX indices have decreased, and the CRB commodity index has shown a slight change [10]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectation**: According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates in the future is presented, showing the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate adjustment [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak reality versus strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing due to positive macro - policy expectations. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, but is expected to weaken further during the summer heat, and inventory is likely to rise. In the short term, iron ore is expected to remain strong, supported by the rising prices of rebar, coking coal, and glass, but overall it is in a large - range oscillation [2][5] Summary by Directory 1. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Policy and Market News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth plan for ten key industries including steel, and the National Energy Administration is checking for over - production in coal mines, which led to the continuous limit - up of coking coal and a sharp rise in coke and other black - series products [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar production decreased, factory inventory declined, social inventory continued to rise, and total inventory increased. Apparent demand dropped month - on - month, indicating a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the sector is better than that of building materials, and it is expected to weaken further during the summer heat [2] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices have risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing a short - term strong performance [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, buy on dips after adjustments, and conduct short - term operations. Investors with empty positions should be cautious about chasing the rise [2] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased. For example, the rebar main - contract closing price is 3307 yuan/ton, up 2.57% from the previous day and 6.20% from last week [2] - **Production**: National building - material steel mill rebar production is 209.06 million tons, down 3.51% from last week; hot - rolled coil production is 321.14 million tons, down 0.62% from last week [2] - **Inventory**: Five major steel product social inventory is 922.11 million tons, up 0.89% from last week; rebar social inventory is 370.16 million tons, up 2.97% from last week [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: Steel mill profitability is fair, with the profit - making steel mill ratio close to 60%. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, but there is significant downward pressure in the near future as it is the consumption off - season. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. Port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports futures prices, but port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [5] - **Technical Analysis**: Futures prices are rising strongly but are in a large - range oscillation overall [5] - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see stance, be cautious about chasing the rise, and wait patiently for a pull - back before buying on dips for short - term operations [5] - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased. For example, the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price is 823 yuan/dry ton, up 1.73% from the previous day and 7.30% from last week [5] - **Shipment**: Australian iron - ore shipment is 1404.9 million tons, down 10.51% from last week; Brazilian iron - ore shipment is 833.2 million tons, up 17.37% from last week [5] - **Inventory**: Port total inventory is 13785.21 million tons, up 0.14% from last week; port trade - ore inventory is 9193.54 million tons, down 0.50% from last week [5] 3. Industry News - **Coal Industry**: The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in eight provinces (regions) to promote stable and orderly coal supply. This led to a limit - up in coking coal and a collective surge in the coal sector yesterday [7] - **Iron - Ore Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports is 14388.56 million tons, an increase of 72.25 million tons from last Monday. Inventory in some regions has increased, while that in others has decreased slightly [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, oscillate at a high level in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term. The core logic is that the short - term trade war has entered a new stage, with risks of economic recession and geopolitical changes still existing. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, and strong employment and inflation are suppressing the expectation of interest rate cuts. [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have resumed adding positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has decreased slightly. [5] - For both gold and silver, the strategy is for conservative investors to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - loss and take - profit levels. [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Price Performance - International prices: Comex gold主力合约收盘价 is $3355.50 per ounce, up $10.10 (0.30%) from the previous day and down $14.80 (-0.44%) from the previous week. London gold is $3355.10 per ounce, up $36.60 (1.10%) from the previous day and up $3.00 (0.09%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 781.70 yuan per gram, up 4.68 yuan (0.60%) from the previous day and up 0.30 yuan (0.04%) from the previous week. The closing price of gold T + D is 777.00 yuan per gram, up 3.63 yuan (0.47%) from the previous day and down 0.46 yuan (-0.06%) from the previous week. [2] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex gold position is 448,531 lots (100 ounces per lot), an increase of 10,869 lots (2.48%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract is 211,239 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 8,952 lots (4.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 20,156 lots (10.55%) from the previous week. The position of gold TD is 205,042 lots (kilograms per lot), an increase of 590 lots (0.29%) from the previous day and a decrease of 9,956 lots (-4.63%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 8,598 tons, unchanged. Comex gold inventory is 1,152 tons, a decrease of 13 tons (-1.08%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 18 tons, an increase of 0 tons (1.57%) from the previous day and an increase of 0 tons (1.32%) from the previous week. [2] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 110,442 lots, an increase of 2,896 lots (25.71%); the top 10 total 139,355 lots, an increase of 2,304 lots (32.44%); the top 20 total 167,690 lots, an increase of 4,891 lots (39.04%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 14,565 lots, an increase of 494 lots (3.39%); the top 10 total 20,464 lots, an increase of 560 lots (4.76%); the top 20 total 24,576 lots, an increase of 599 lots (5.72%). [3] Silver Price Performance - International prices: Comex silver's main contract closing price is $38.43 per ounce, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous day and down $0.65 (-1.66%) from the previous week. London silver is $38.27 per ounce, up $0.52 (1.36%) from the previous day and up $0.77 (2.05%) from the previous week. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 9,271.00 yuan per kilogram, down 2.00 yuan (-0.02%) from the previous day and up 64.00 yuan (0.70%) from the previous week. The closing price of silver T + D is 9,226.00 yuan per kilogram, up 15.00 yuan (0.16%) from the previous day and up 54.00 yuan (0.59%) from the previous week. [6] Position and Inventory - Position: Comex silver position is 171,474 lots (5,000 ounces per lot), an increase of 8,671 lots (5.33%) from the previous week. The position of the Shanghai Silver Exchange's main contract is 7,013,010 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 182,130 lots (-2.53%) from the previous day and an increase of 291,585 lots (4.34%) from the previous week. The position of silver TD is 3,370,304 lots (kilograms per lot), a decrease of 37,116 lots (-1.09%) from the previous day and an increase of 127,300 lots (3.93%) from the previous week. - Inventory: LBMA inventory is 23,791 tons, an increase of 424 tons (1.81%) from the previous week. Comex silver inventory is 15,464 tons, an increase of 17 tons (0.00%) from the previous day and an increase of 72 tons (0.47%) from the previous week. The inventory of the Shanghai Silver Exchange is 1,204 tons, a decrease of 20 tons (-1.59%) from the previous week. The total visible inventory is 41,793 tons, a decrease of 75 tons (-0.18%) from the previous day and a decrease of 20 tons (-0.05%) from the previous week. [6] Net Position Ranking of Futures Companies - Among the top 10 net long positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 127,796 lots, an increase of 1,152 lots (12.80%); the top 10 total 176,685 lots, an increase of 3,499 lots (17.70%); the top 20 total 235,618 lots, an increase of 2,698 lots (23.60%). - Among the top 10 net short positions of futures companies on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the top 5 total 72,195 lots, a decrease of 890 lots (7.23%); the top 10 total 94,674 lots, an increase of 7 lots (9.48%); the top 20 total 118,304 lots, an increase of 462 lots (11.85%). [7] Fundamental Key Data Monetary Attributes - Federal funds target rate upper limit is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The discount rate is 4.50%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 4.40%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points. The total assets of the Federal Reserve are 6710.669 billion US dollars, a decrease of 25.67 billion US dollars (-0.00%). M2 year - on - year growth rate is 4.50%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points. [8] Other Key Indicators - 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 2.59%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points (-0.77%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.01 percentage points (-0.38%) from the previous week. The US dollar index is 98.47, a decrease of 0.17 points (-0.17%) from the previous day and an increase of 0.61 points (0.62%) from the previous week. The US Treasury yield spread (3 - month - 10 - year) is 0.52, an increase of 0.02 points (4.00%) from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. [8] Inflation, Economic Growth, and Labor Market - US inflation indicators such as CPI, core CPI, PCE price index, and core PCE price index have shown certain changes. US economic growth indicators such as GDP, unemployment rate, and non - farm employment have also changed. The labor market indicators such as labor participation rate, average hourly wage growth rate, and weekly working hours have different trends. [10] Central Bank Gold Reserves and Other Data - Central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world have different situations. The proportion of the US dollar, euro, and RMB in IMF foreign exchange reserves has changed. The ratio of gold to foreign exchange reserves globally, in China, and in the US has also changed. [11] Risk and Market Indicators - The geopolitical risk index is 132.88, an increase of 24.41 points (22.50%) from the previous day and a decrease of 59.95 points (-31.09%) from the previous week. The VIX index is 16.83, an increase of 0.42 points (2.56%) from the previous day and a decrease of 0.37 points (-2.15%) from the previous week. The CRB commodity index is 304.79, a decrease of 1.33 points (-0.43%) from the previous day and an increase of 2.09 points (0.69%) from the previous week. The offshore RMB exchange rate is 7.1812, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 0.0074 points (0.10%) from the previous week. [11] Fed Interest Rate Expectations - According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of different interest rate ranges at different Fed meeting dates from 2025/7/30 to 2026/12/9 is provided. [12]