报告日期：2025 年 11 月 27 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：能化夜盘低位反弹 美联储发布褐皮书显示，根据美联储 12 个辖区中的大部分报告，自上次报告以 来，经济活动基本持平；不过有 2 个辖区指出经济小幅下滑，1 个辖区报告经济 小幅增长。整体前景基本未变，部分人士指出未来几个月经济活动放缓的风险加 大。六部门联合发布《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》， 从拓展增量、深挖存量、场景赋能等 5 方面部署 19 项重点任务，目标是到 2027 年，消费品供给结构明显优化，形成 3 个万亿级消费领域和 10 个千亿级消费热 点。 重点品种：股指、双焦、原油 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指反弹为主，通信板块领涨，国防 军工板块领跌，市场成交额 1.80 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 25 日融资余额 增加 39.90 亿元至 24462.88 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科 技板块是长期方向。11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是短线交易节 奏、事件扰动与资金防御需求共同作用的结果。若后续海外科技业绩落地、 小盘股完成补跌，市场风格有望重新趋于均衡；但在政策与流动性 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The copper price may be on the strong side, and the zinc price may fluctuate within a range [2] - For copper, the concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - For zinc, the zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, but the smelting output continues to increase. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Situation**: Night - session copper prices closed higher. The concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales grow positively, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap [2] - **Strategy Direction**: The copper price may be on the strong side. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 86,560 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,953 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 8.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 156,575 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 825 tons [2] 3.2 Zinc - **Market Situation**: Night - session zinc prices closed. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, but the smelting output continues to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is showing negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2] - **Strategy Direction**: The zinc price may fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,360 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 55 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,055 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 163.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 48,000 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 575 tons [2] 3.3 Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,425 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 30 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,864 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 26.84 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 543,725 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,225 tons [2] - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 115,940 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,190 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,845 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 198.49 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,482 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 0 tons [2] - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,005 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,974 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 40.08 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 264,575 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 700 tons [2] - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 294,640 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 330 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 38,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 185.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,085 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 0 tons [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined. The T2603 contract dropped 0.34%, and its trading volume increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally rose, while overseas Treasury bond yields in the US and Germany mostly declined, and those in Japan increased. Given that the prices of Treasury bond futures broke through support levels, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of all Treasury bond futures contracts (TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, TL2606) declined. The decline rates ranged from - 0.05% to - 0.76%. For example, the T2603 contract fell 0.34% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes varied, and open interest also changed. For instance, the open interest of the T2603 contract decreased by 4,826, while that of the TL2603 contract increased by 9,784 [2] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of some contracts changed. For example, the inter - period spread of the TS2603 - TS2606 contract changed from - 0.048 to - 0.046 [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate increased by 2bp, DR007 rate decreased by 0.33bp, and GC007 rate decreased by 1.2bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields generally rose. The 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 3.01bp to 1.86%. The spread between long - and short - term (10 - 2) Treasury bond yields was 34.54bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield increased by 1.4bp [2] 3.3 Macro News and Strategy - **Domestic Macro**: The central bank increased open - market operations and had a net daily withdrawal of 972 billion yuan. The Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, and the market liquidity remained loose. The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation, with a net monthly injection of 100 billion yuan, for the 9th consecutive month of increased roll - over. Market expectations for the implementation of loose policies this year are low. Industrial production, consumption growth slowed down, investment decline widened, mainly affected by the real estate sector [3] - **Overseas Macro**: US PPI in September increased 0.3% month - on - month, with energy costs driving up inflation. Core PPI growth rate of 0.1% was lower than expected. Many Fed officials signaled interest - rate cuts, and US Treasury bond yields continued to fall. The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity was basically flat, with some areas at risk of a slowdown. Japan plans to issue at least 11.5 trillion yen in new bonds, raising concerns about public finances and rising yields [3] - **Strategy**: Given that the prices of Treasury bond futures broke through support levels, it is recommended to wait and see [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures have returned to a weak trend. Although the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level and demand is steadily released, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level, and the market may continue to fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LL) - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6707, 6768, and 6812 respectively, down 55, 52, and 43 from the prices two days ago, with declines of -0.81%, -0.76%, and -0.63% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 396126, 147085, and 1807 respectively, and the open interests were 497599, 221698, and 3858 respectively. The changes in open interest were +9240, +22622, and +574 [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -61, -44, and 105 respectively, compared with -58, -35, and 93 previously [2] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Changes**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6265, 6367, and 6430 respectively, down 52, 53, and 48 from the prices two days ago, with declines of -0.82%, -0.83%, and -0.74% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 442760, 138529, and 3752 respectively, and the open interests were 586572, 243957, and 11593 respectively. The changes in open interest were -19187, +35651, and +1074 [2] - **Spreads**: The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -102, -63, and 165 respectively, compared with -103, -58, and 161 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market Raw Materials - **Prices**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2098 yuan/ton, 6075 yuan/ton, 564 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6140 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared with 2071 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 561 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6160 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton previously [2] Spot Market - **LL**: The current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7350 yuan/ton respectively, remaining the same as before except for a slight change in the South China market's upper - limit price [2] - **PP**: The current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged from before [2] Consumption Information - On Wednesday (November 26), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.65 per barrel, up $0.70 from the previous trading day, a 1.21% increase, with a trading range of $57.66 - $58.72. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.13 per barrel, up $0.65 from the previous trading day, a 1.04% increase, with a trading range of $62.11 - $63.20 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic fundamental data is weak. The central bank will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, and market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which has a certain support for the prices of Treasury bond futures. The current main contract has shifted to the March 26th contract, and it is recommended to plan for the contract shift [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed trends. The T2603 contract fell by 0.11%, and the open interest increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to Treasury bond futures contracts was relatively high, indicating certain arbitrage opportunities [2]. | Contract | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Trading Volume | Open Interest Change | Inter - period Spread | Inter - period Spread Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2603 | 102.422 | 102.418 | 0.004 | 0.00% | 61793 | 33194 | 4247 | - 0.048 | - 0.054 | | TS2606 | 102.470 | 102.472 | - 0.002 | 0.00% | 2226 | 288 | 69 | | | | TF2603 | 105.980 | 105.995 | - 0.015 | - 0.01% | 129492 | 82221 | 14505 | 0.020 | 0.015 | | TF2606 | 105.960 | 105.980 | - 0.020 | - 0.02% | 3177 | 1872 | 806 | | | | T2603 | 108.220 | 108.335 | - 0.115 | - 0.11% | 234165 | 115185 | 24142 | - 0.055 | 0.005 | | T2606 | 108.275 | 108.330 | - 0.055 | - 0.05% | 6562 | 3430 | 977 | | | | TL2603 | 115.16 | 115.58 | - 0.420 | - 0.36% | 135646 | 123788 | 16728 | - 0.150 | - 0.050 | | TL2606 | 115.31 | 115.63 | - 0.320 | - 0.28% | 11304 | 6154 | 2138 | | | Spot Market - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally declined. The SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 1.4bp, the DR007 rate dropped 3.28bp, and the GC007 rate dropped 2bp. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed trends. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.96bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 30.12bp [2]. | Key - term Treasury Bonds | Yesterday's Yield | Previous Day's Yield | Change (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6M | 1.41 | 1.41 | 0.1 | | 1Y | 1.41 | 1.40 | 0.24 | | 2Y | 1.43 | 1.43 | - 0.25 | | 5Y | 1.60 | 1.59 | 0.5 | | 7Y | 1.71 | 1.70 | 1.03 | | 10Y | 1.83 | 1.82 | 0.96 | | 20Y | 2.18 | 2.16 | 1.7 | | 30Y | 2.17 | 2.16 | 1.35 | | Yield Spread (bp) (10 - 2) | 30.12 | 29.33 | | | Yield Spread (bp) (10 - 5) | 27.92 | 26.64 | | | Yield Spread (bp) (5 - 2) | 2.20 | 2.69 | | | Yield Spread (bp) (30 - 10) | 34.23 | 33.84 | | Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield dropped 3bp, the 10 - year German Treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10 - year Japanese Treasury bond yield rose 1.9bp [2]. | Overseas Key - term Treasury Bonds | Yesterday's Yield | Previous Day's Yield | Change (bp) | Internal - External Yield Spread (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US 2Y | 3.43 | 3.46 | - 3.0 | - 200.2 | | US 5Y | 3.55 | 3.61 | - 6.0 | - 195.2 | | US 10Y | 4.01 | 4.04 | - 3.0 | - 218.1 | | US 30Y | 4.67 | 4.68 | - 1.0 | - 249.9 | | German 2Y | 2.000 | 1.990 | 1.0 | - 57.2 | | German 10Y | 2.770 | 2.770 | 0.0 | - 94.1 | | Japanese 2Y | 0.975 | 0.959 | 1.6 | 45.3 | | Japanese 10Y | 1.811 | 1.792 | 1.9 | 1.8 | Macro - news and Industry Information - The central bank increased open - market operations, with a net daily withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan and a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net monthly investment of 100 billion yuan, which was the 9th consecutive month of increased roll - over. Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined, and the market capital was loose. The US September PPI increased 0.3% month - on - month due to rising energy costs, and the core PPI growth rate of 0.1% was lower than expected. Many Fed officials signaled interest - rate cuts, and US Treasury bond yields continued to fall. In October, household and corporate deposits continued to flow to the non - bank sector with higher returns. Industrial production and consumption growth rates slowed down year - on - year, and the investment decline widened, mainly due to the real - estate drag. The decline in commercial - housing sales widened, and second - hand housing prices continued to fall month - on - month and were still in the adjustment process [3]. - From January to October, China's full - sector foreign direct investment was $144.34 billion, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%; the newly - signed contract value of foreign - contracted projects was $210.7 billion, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. Local government special bonds are in a peak period of issuance for government investment funds. Guangdong Province, Sichuan Province, and Shanghai will issue a total of 20 billion yuan of special bonds on November 28th, which will be injected into the Guangdong Provincial Government Investment Fund, Chengdu Venture Capital Fund, and Shanghai Future Industry Fund respectively. The total scale of local government special bonds invested in government investment funds currently disclosed will exceed 80 billion yuan [3]. - US President Trump said that his team had made great progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the 28 - point peace plan initially drafted by the US had been refined, with only a few differences remaining. Trump instructed envoy Steve Witkoff to go to Moscow to consult with Russian President Putin. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov said that the Ukrainian side expected President Zelensky to visit the US as soon as possible in November to complete the final steps and reach an agreement with US President Trump [3]. - In the money market, most interest rates showed mixed trends. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank deposit market for the 1 - day variety decreased by 0.07BP to 1.318%, the 7 - day variety decreased by 1.62BP to 1.4541%, and the 14 - day variety decreased by 1.11BP to 1.5317%. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank lending in the inter - bank deposit market for the 1 - day variety increased by 0.04BP to 1.3386%, the 7 - day variety decreased by 0.21BP to 1.4922%, the 14 - day variety increased by 3.35BP to 1.5503%, and the 1 - month variety decreased by 9.6BP to 1.504%. US Treasury bond yields fell across the board. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield fell 3.62 basis points to 3.459%, the 3 - year yield fell 2.23 basis points to 3.452%, the 5 - year yield fell 2.79 basis points to 3.564%, the 10 - year yield fell 3.07 basis points to 3.996%, and the 30 - year yield fell 2.05 basis points to 4.650% [3].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating [2] Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - The supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious overall, and it may fluctuate within a range [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate [2] - Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak [2] - Domestic copper futures' previous day's closing price was 86,540 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 50 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 10,833 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 9.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 155,750 tons, and the daily change was 725 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow [2] - Galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. Infrastructural investment's cumulative growth rate is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak [2] - Domestic zinc futures' previous day's closing price was 22,360 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 35 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,000 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 120.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 47,425 tons, and the daily change was 100 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,425 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,801 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.45 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 545,950 tons, and the daily change was - 2,050 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 115,940 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 4,080 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 14,920 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 190.51 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 253,482 tons, and the daily change was - 468 tons [2] - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,005 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 50 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 1,982 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 35.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 265,275 tons, and the daily change was 2,425 tons [2] - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 294,640 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,580 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 37,695 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 135.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,085 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]

2025年11月25日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.460 | 102.418 | 105.890 | 105.995 | 108.505 | 108.335 | 115.76 | 115.58 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.460 | 102.410 | 105.855 | 105.905 | 108.430 | 108.240 | 115.57 | 115.37 | | | 涨跌 | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.035 | 0.090 | 0.075 | 0.095 | 0.190 | 0.2 ...

报告日期：2025 年 11 月 25 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：权益商品反弹在即 11 月 24 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话。习近平指出，釜山会 晤以来，中美关系总体稳定向好，受到两国和国际社会普遍欢迎，事实再次说明， 中美"合则两利、斗则俱伤"是经过实践反复验证的常识，中美"相互成就、共 同繁荣"是看得见、摸得着的实景。双方要保持住这个势头，坚持正确方向，秉 持平等、尊重、互惠态度，拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单，争取更多积极进展， 为中美关系打开新的合作空间。习近平阐明了中方在台湾问题上的原则立场，强 调台湾回归中国是战后国际秩序重要组成部分。中美曾并肩抗击法西斯和军国主 义，当前更应该共同维护好二战胜利成果。 重点品种：股指、双焦、原油 股指：美国三大指数明显反弹，上一交易日股指涨跌分化，中小盘股经过多 日调整后明显反弹，国防军工和传媒板块领涨，石油石化和煤炭板块领跌， 市场成交额 1.74 万亿元。资金方面，11 月 21 日融资余额减少 292.08 亿元 至 24451.78 亿元。十五五规划仍然聚焦科技自立，预计科技板块是长期方 向。11 月以来"权重走强、成长走弱"主要是 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the self - valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and the market may continue the low - level oscillation trend in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6793, 6845, and 6880 respectively, with price increases of 23, 14, and 3 and percentage increases of 0.34%, 0.20%, and 0.04% respectively. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6372, 6474, and 6519, with price increases of 15, 0, and 2 and percentage increases of 0.24%, 0.00%, and 0.03% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 334461, 107016, and 1244 respectively, and the open interests were 497429, 176591, and 2688 respectively, with open interest changes of - 15317, 25839, and 129 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 374416, 95707, and 1999 respectively, and the open interests were 605178, 183032, and 10073 respectively, with open interest changes of - 21657, 21079, and 206 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 52, - 35, and 87 respectively, compared with previous values of - 61, - 46, and 107. For PP, the current spreads are - 102, - 45, and 147 respectively, compared with previous values of - 117, - 43, and 160 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2082 yuan/ton, 5925 yuan/ton, 561 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6160 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the ranges are 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] Consumption Information - On Monday (November 24), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.84 per barrel, up $0.78 or 1.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.42 - $59.06. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.37 per barrel, up $0.81 or 1.29% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.94 - $63.56 [2]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no specific investment rating provided for the industry in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of copper may be on the strong side, while the price of zinc may fluctuate within a certain range [2]. - For copper, the concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. Power grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales grow positively, home appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. The mine accident in Indonesia is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long term [2]. - For zinc, the processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, but smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales grow positively, home appliance production shows negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, and it may generally fluctuate within a range [2]. Group 3: Data Summaries Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 86,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 65 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 10,782 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): 24.88 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 155,025 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 2,900 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 21,495 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 10 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,813 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): - 32.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 548,000 tons, LME inventory daily change: 3,925 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,380 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 25 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 3,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): 140.20 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 47,325 tons, LME inventory daily change: 1,250 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 115,250 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 3,700 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 14,730 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): - 190.47 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 253,950 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 222 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,200 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 115 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 1,992 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): - 28.49 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 262,850 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 1,800 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 292,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 1,250 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 37,425 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M): 113.99 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 3,085 tons, LME inventory daily change: 20 tons [2]