Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for Sinopec and PetroChina. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released, but the market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and they generally maintain a low - level oscillation process after the rebound. Future attention should be paid to the marginal consumption situation, as well as the supply and production scheduling levels [2]. Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6808, 6874, and 6913 respectively, with price drops of - 23, - 12, and - 18, and declines of - 0.34%, - 0.17%, and - 0.26% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6382, 6478, and 6503 respectively, with price drops of - 28, - 26, and - 23, and declines of - 0.44%, - 0.40%, and - 0.35% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 186405, 81004, and 605 respectively. For PP, they were 228079, 73560, and 1785 respectively [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 402710, 254796, and 4273 respectively, with changes of - 4354, 3195, and 97. For PP, they were 459901, 282164, and 17557 respectively, with changes of - 9112, 2922, and 305 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 66, - 39, and 105 respectively, compared with previous values of - 55, - 45, and 100. For PP, they were - 96, - 25, and 121 respectively, compared with previous values of - 94, - 22, and 116 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2132 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 581 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2135 yuan/ton, 6070 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6180 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6850 - 7250 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, they were 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6300 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Wednesday (December 3), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.95 per barrel, up $0.31 or 0.53% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.37 - $59.64. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.67 per barrel, up $0.22 or 0.35% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.18 - $63.37 [2].

Report Summary - **Report Title**: 20251203 Shenwan Futures Non-ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report [1] - **Analyst**: Li Ye [4] - **从业资格号**: F0285557 [4] - **交易咨询号**: Z0002369 [4] - **Email**: liye@sywgqh.com.cn [4] - **Phone**: 021 - 50586241 [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - **Copper**: Night session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break - even point, and although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions in the copper mine lead to a global supply - demand gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output and downstream demand [2] - **Zinc**: Night session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output and downstream demand [2] Data Summary | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 88,870 | 65 | 11,145 | 69.18 | 159,425 | 0 | | Aluminum | 21,600 | - 60 | 2,864 | - 30.13 | 537,900 | - 1,150 | | Zinc | 22,385 | 85 | 3,056 | 250.98 | 52,025 | 275 | | Nickel | 116,730 | - 2,870 | 14,740 | - 194.81 | 254,364 | - 396 | | Lead | 17,055 | - 55 | 1,994 | - 42.45 | 260,875 | - 2,300 | | Tin | 304,060 | 7,330 | 38,840 | 92.00 | 3,160 | 0 | [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the context of the mild domestic economic recovery and the increasing expectation of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December FOMC meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference in China will affect the A-share market's rhythm in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and the investment main line in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to be more volatile, with funds preferring defensive allocations. After the meeting content is clear, positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cuts may resonate, and market risk appetite is expected to rise again. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.32% to - 0.40%. The trading volumes were 55,827.00, 2,946.00, 19,023.00, and 3,903.00 respectively. The positions were 138,432.00, 6,861.00, 85,537.00, and 24,607.00 respectively, with changes of - 7,168.00, 491.00, 586.00, and 480.00 respectively. [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.40% to - 0.45%. The trading volumes were 25,152.00, 1,149.00, 7,430.00, and 1,892.00 respectively. The positions were 53,855.00, 2,456.00, 23,041.00, and 7,352.00 respectively, with changes of - 5,275.00, 112.00, - 302.00, and 160.00 respectively. [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.58% to - 0.63%. The trading volumes were 54,148.00, 3,714.00, 19,427.00, and 6,766.00 respectively. The positions were 127,620.00, 9,568.00, 72,697.00, and 32,227.00 respectively, with changes of - 6,889.00, 860.00, 1,648.00, and 923.00 respectively. [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next all declined, with the decline rates ranging from - 0.61% to - 0.64%. The trading volumes were 96,449.00, 5,948.00, 26,897.00, and 10,822.00 respectively. The positions were 181,453.00, 14,342.00, 96,203.00, and 55,881.00 respectively, with changes of - 7,566.00, 1,179.00, - 705.00, and 1,806.00 respectively. [1] - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The inter - monthly spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM showed different changes. For example, the current value of the IF next month - IF current month spread was - 18.00, compared with the previous value of - 14.40. [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by - 0.48%, the SSE 50 index decreased by - 0.51%, the CSI 500 index decreased by - 0.87%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by - 1.00%. The trading volumes and total trading amounts of these indexes also showed corresponding changes. [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, telecommunications services, and utilities sectors had positive growth rates of 0.53%, 0.52%, and 0.35% respectively, while the raw materials, industry, and other sectors had negative growth rates. [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts against their corresponding spot indexes showed different values and changes compared with the previous two days. For example, the IF current month - CSI 300 basis had a previous value of - 18.53, compared with - 21.09 two days ago. [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by - 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by - 0.68%, the Small and Medium - Sized Board Index decreased by - 0.79%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by - 0.69%. [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.24%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by - 1.89%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.25%, and the DAX index increased by 0.49%. [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - China and Russia held strategic security consultations, reaching new consensuses on major issues related to strategic security interests. They also had in - depth exchanges on the Ukraine crisis and strategic coordination on issues related to Japan. [2] - Some Japanese organizations expressed their willingness to visit China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry hoped that these organizations would play a positive role in Japan. [2] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal will prioritize the construction of a modern industrial system. The key is to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, cultivate and expand emerging industries and future industries, and accelerate the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy. [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Administrative Measures for Credit Restoration in Market Supervision and Administration", which will be implemented on December 25 this year. [2] - Five departments including the National Development and Reform Commission put forward opinions on strengthening the construction of data element disciplines and professional digital talent teams, with 12 specific measures to support the construction of digital colleges in comprehensive universities and the addition of relevant majors in vocational colleges. [2] 6. Industry Information - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a collective price increase, with many leading enterprises issuing price increase notices to customers. [2] - In November, the estimated wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 1.72 million, a year - on - year increase of 20% and a month - on - month increase of 7%. Tesla China's wholesale volume was 86,700, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of nearly 41%. [2] - The China Drug Price Registration System was officially launched, which is beneficial for building a global price system and promoting the development of the global market for innovative drugs. [2] - The Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a symposium to listen to opinions on the preparation of the China Artificial Intelligence Terminal Industry Association, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the artificial intelligence terminal industry in China. [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes rose. On the previous trading day, the stock index fluctuated and declined, with the petroleum and petrochemical sector leading the gain and the media sector leading the loss. The market turnover was 1.61 trillion yuan. On December 1, the margin trading balance increased by 10.208 billion yuan to 2.466708 trillion yuan. [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be bullish [2] - Zinc: Likely to trade in a range [2] 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Night trading saw copper prices close higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, with smelting profit at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow strongly. Grid investment shows positive growth, while power source investment slows; auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate sector remains weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - **Zinc**: Night trading saw zinc prices close higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate sector remains weak. Overall, the difference in zinc supply and demand is not significant, and prices are likely to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Other Key Data | **Commodity** | **Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton)** | **Domestic Basis (yuan/ton)** | **Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton)** | **LME Spot Premium (USD/ton)** | **LME Inventory (tons)** | **LME Inventory Daily Change (tons)** | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 89,210 | 50 | 11,233 | 69.10 | 159,425 | 2,250 | | Aluminum | 21,600 | - 60 | 2,888 | - 27.51 | 539,050 | - 2,000 | | Zinc | 22,385 | 65 | 3,091 | 268.39 | 51,750 | 950 | | Nickel | 116,730 | - 3,020 | 14,875 | - 201.94 | 254,760 | - 690 | | Lead | 17,055 | - 55 | 2,000 | - 41.63 | 263,175 | - 1,000 | | Tin | 304,060 | 1,110 | 39,240 | 150.00 | 3,160 | 35 | [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, and zinc prices may fluctuate within a certain range [2] - For copper, night - time prices closed up 1.5%. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow strongly. Global copper supply - demand may turn into a deficit due to mine supply disruptions, which will support copper prices in the long - term [2] - For zinc, night - time prices closed up. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, so it may fluctuate within a certain range [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Market performance: Night - time copper prices closed up 1.5%, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 87,470 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of 65 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price of 11,176 dollars/ton, an LME spot premium of 44.69 dollars/ton, LME inventory of 157,175 tons, and a daily increase of 675 tons [2] - Supply - demand situation: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output is growing. Grid investment is in positive growth, power supply investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Mine supply disruptions lead to a potential supply - demand deficit [2] Zinc - Market performance: Night - time zinc prices closed up, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 22,385 yuan/ton, a domestic basis of 45 yuan/ton, a previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price of 3,051 dollars/ton, an LME spot premium of 224.43 dollars/ton, LME inventory of 50,800 tons, and a daily increase of 875 tons [2] - Supply - demand situation: Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output is growing. Galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Overall supply - demand difference is not obvious [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 21,600 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 60 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,865 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 25.95 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 541,050 tons, and daily change is - 675 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 116,730 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 3,110 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 14,820 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 196.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 255,450 tons, and daily change is 930 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 17,055 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 65 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 1,981 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is - 41.94 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 264,175 tons, and daily change is - 800 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 304,060 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 1,110 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 39,300 dollars/ton, LME spot premium is 123.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 3,125 tons, and daily change is 0 tons [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. On the spot side, linear LL prices from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable, while some拉丝 PP prices from PetroChina were lowered by 50. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level. Future focus should be on marginal consumption, as well as supply and production scheduling levels [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6789, 6857, and 6882 respectively, with increases of 90, 94, and 78, and涨幅 of 1.34%, 1.39%, and 1.15% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6409, 6490, and 6504 respectively, with increases of 114, 97, and 69, and涨幅 of 1.81%, 1.52%, and 1.07% respectively [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes for LL in January, May, and September contracts were 330099, 121195, and 1335 respectively, and the open interests were 457393, 242365, and 4066 respectively, with open interest changes of -38333, 9803, and -168 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 424635, 142549, and 5677 respectively, and the open interests were 506658, 269109, and 15202 respectively, with open interest changes of -50595, 5562, and 2948 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -68, -25, and 93 respectively, compared to previous values of -64, -41, and 105. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -81, -14, and 95 respectively, compared to previous values of -98, -42, and 140 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2139 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 584 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with previous values of 2118 yuan/ton, 6050 yuan/ton, 574 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6140 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2]. - **Midstream**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6850 - 7250 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6950 - 7250 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 and 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7350 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6300 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Friday (November 28), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.55 per barrel, down $0.10 or 0.17% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.27 - $59.64. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.2 per barrel, down $0.14 or 0.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.05 - $63.76 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | | Bearish | Bullish | | --- | --- | --- | | (IH) Stock Index | | √ | | Stock Index (IF) | | √ | | Stock Index (IC) | | √ | | Stock Index (IM) | | √ | | Treasury Bonds (TL) | | √ | | Treasury Bonds (T) | | √ | | Crude Oil | √ | | | Methanol | √ | | | Rubber | | √ | | Rebar | | √ | | Hot Rolled Coil | | √ | | Iron Ore | | √ | | Coking Coal | √ | | | Coke | √ | | | Manganese Silicon | √ | | | Ferrosilicon | √ | | | Copper | | √ | | Aluminum | | √ | | Lithium Carbonate | | √ | | Apple | √ | | | Corn | | √ | | Soda Ash | √ | | | Glass | √ | | | Container Shipping to Europe | √ | | [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - China's economic sentiment is generally stable in November 2025, and the economy is expected to face new opportunities in 2026. The report suggests setting cross - cycle interval combination targets for 2026 [1]. - For the stock index, in the context of economic pressure, relevant incremental policies are expected to be introduced, and a long - term and slow - growing bull market may continue. The market style may tend to be balanced later [2][10]. - Copper prices are supported in the long - run due to the shift of global copper supply and demand to a deficit caused by mine supply disruptions [2][17]. - The downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse despite short - term price increases [3][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The US - Ukraine talks are considered "fruitful", and the US will strengthen diplomatic efforts. The US Middle East envoy may go to Moscow for further talks, and the US has maintained contact with Russia [6]. - **Domestic News**: The National Development and Reform Commission encourages private enterprises to seize investment opportunities and promotes the high - quality development of private investment [6]. - **Industry News**: In October 2025, the private equity fund scale reached 22.05 trillion yuan, a record high. The private securities investment fund scale exceeded 7 trillion yuan for the first time, and all types of funds grew synchronously [7]. 3.2. Outer - market Daily Earnings - On November 28, 2025, most outer - market varieties showed price fluctuations. For example, the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, the European STOXX50 rose 0.32%, London Gold rose 1.48%, etc. [9] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose. The stock index mainly rose in the previous trading day. The science and technology sector is expected to be the long - term direction. The market style may tend to be balanced later, and a long - term bull market may continue [2][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bond prices are mixed. The market funds are stable, but due to factors such as economic data, real - estate market conditions, and policy expectations, the Treasury bond futures prices turn weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemical**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil rose 1.11% at night. The market is skeptical about the restart of the Ukraine peace process. The overall downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse [3][12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.28% at night. The domestic methanol and CTO/MTO device operating rates decreased. The coastal methanol inventory decreased, but it is still at a high level. Methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13]. - **Rubber**: Overseas rubber supply increases, while domestic supply is about to enter the off - season. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely with a slowly rising center [14]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The downstream demand is stable, but the market sentiment is affected by crude oil and the overall weakness of commodities. The future trend depends on consumption, supply, and production scheduling [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures are in consolidation, and the soda ash futures continue to be weak. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the market is still cautious [16]. - **Metal**: - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 1.5% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The copper supply - demand deficit supports copper prices in the long - run [2][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The zinc concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow. The zinc supply - demand difference is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean meal rose and rapeseed meal fell slightly at night. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress has accelerated. The US soybean export is slow, and market concerns drive the bean meal to fluctuate strongly [19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The palm oil production increase is lower than expected, and the Brazilian soybean transportation problem boosts the price. Oils and fats are expected to be strong in the short - term [20]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar fluctuates within a range. Internationally, the raw sugar rebounds due to factors such as Brazil's early harvest and India's situation. Domestically, the sugar supply increases seasonally, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term [21]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton is strong in the short - term. The domestic supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is acceptable, and the external orders support the price. However, the upward space is limited [22][23]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC rebounded on Friday. The SCFI European line price rose slightly. As the end - of - year peak season approaches, the market focus will shift to the downward space of freight rates in the first quarter of next year. The ability of shipping companies to support prices in late December and January is questionable [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | (IH) Index Futures | Bullish | | Index Futures (IF) | Bullish | | Index Futures (IC) | Bullish | | Index Futures (IM) | Bullish | | Treasury Bonds (TL) | Bullish | | Treasury Bonds (T) | Bullish | | Crude Oil | Bearish | | Methanol | Bearish | | Rubber | Bullish | | Rebar | Bullish | | Hot Rolled Coil | Bullish | | Iron Ore | Bullish | | Coking Coal | Bearish | | Coke | Bearish | | Manganese Silicon | Bearish | | Ferrosilicon | Bearish | | Copper | Bullish | | Aluminum | Bullish | | Lithium Carbonate | Bullish | | Apple | Bearish | | Corn | Bullish | | Soda Ash | Bearish | | Glass | Bearish | | Container Shipping to Europe | Bearish | [5] 2. Core Views - The 14th Five-Year Plan still focuses on technological self-reliance, and the technology sector is expected to be a long-term direction. The market style may return to balance, but large-cap value may dominate in the short term. In the face of economic pressure, incremental policies are expected to be introduced, and a long-term and steady bull market is expected to continue [2][11]. - For coking coal and coke, the short-term market may correct, and attention should be paid to changes in coking coal supply and hot metal production [2][20]. - The downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse, although the SC night session rose 1.46%. The market has mixed expectations for the restart of the Ukraine peace process [3][13]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Daily Main News - **International News**: Russian President Putin stated that the US delegation will visit Moscow next week. Russia generally agrees to use the US list for resolving the Ukraine issue as the basis for future negotiations. If the Ukrainian armed forces withdraw, Russia will stop military operations; otherwise, it will use military means [1][6]. - **Domestic News**: Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council, which focused on promoting high-quality development, advancing provincial-level overall planning of basic medical insurance, and reviewing relevant regulations [7]. - **Industry News**: The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting the expansion of infrastructure REITs to urban renewal facilities, hotels, stadiums, and commercial office facilities. It also warned about the risks in the humanoid robot industry [8]. 3.2 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets | Variety | Unit | 11/26 | 11/27 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | S&P 500 | Points | 6,812.61 | 6,812.61 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | European STOXX50 | Points | 4,798.02 | 4,788.10 | -9.92 | -0.21% | | FTSE China A50 Futures | Points | 15,063.00 | 15,068.00 | 5.00 | 0.03% | | US Dollar Index | Points | 99.59 | 99.55 | -0.04 | -0.04% | | ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous | USD/Barrel | 63.07 | 63.39 | 0.32 | 0.51% | | London Gold Spot | USD/Ounce | 4,162.57 | 4,156.88 | -5.68 | -0.14% | | London Silver | USD/Ounce | 53.33 | 53.37 | 0.05 | 0.09% | | LME Aluminum | USD/Ton | 2,864.00 | 2,831.50 | -32.50 | -1.13% | | LME Copper | USD/Ton | 10,953.00 | 10,930.00 | -23.00 | -0.21% | | LME Zinc | USD/Ton | 3,055.00 | 3,022.00 | -33.00 | -1.08% | | LME Nickel | USD/Ton | 14,845.00 | 14,840.00 | -5.00 | -0.03% | | ICE No. 11 Sugar | Cents/Pound | 15.12 | 15.12 | 0 | 0.00% | | ICE No. 2 Cotton | Cents/Pound | 64.61 | 64.61 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | CBOT Soybeans | Cents/Bushel | 1,132.25 | 1,132.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | CBOT Soybean Meal Current Month Continuous | USD/Short Ton | 320.70 | 320.70 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | CBOT Soybean Oil Current Month Continuous | Cents/Pound | 51.05 | 51.05 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | CBOT Wheat Current Month Continuous | Cents/Bushel | 541.00 | 541.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | CBOT Corn Current Month Continuous | Cents/Bushel | 446.25 | 446.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% | [10] 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: Index futures may continue the long-term bull market, and treasury bond futures may weaken due to policy expectations and market risk preferences [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil's downward trend is hard to change; methanol may oscillate weakly; rubber is expected to oscillate; polyolefins are weak but have low valuations; glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion [13][14][15][16][17]. - **Metals**: Copper prices may be supported in the long term due to potential supply shortages; zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [18][19]. - **Black Metals**: Coking coal and coke may correct in the short term [20]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal and oils are expected to be strong in the short term; sugar is expected to oscillate; cotton is expected to maintain an oscillating trend; container shipping to Europe may see its 02 contract center decline [21][22][23][24][25][26].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. Spot prices: some linear LL from PetroChina were lowered by 200, while Sinopec kept stable; some拉丝 PP from PetroChina were lowered by 50, with Sinopec remaining stable. Downstream demand had a high overall开工 rate with steady release, but market sentiment was affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities. Polyolefin's own valuation was low in the short - term, and future focus should be on marginal consumption, supply, and production scheduling levels [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6699, 6763, and 6804 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 5, and - 8 and percentage changes of - 0.12%, - 0.07%, and - 0.12%. For PP, the prices were 6295, 6393, and 6435, with changes of 30, 26, and 5 and percentage changes of 0.48%, 0.41%, and 0.08% [2] - **Trading Volume**: For LL, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 270004, 103306, and 1204. For PP, they were 306411, 95171, and 2239 [2] - **Open Interest**: For LL, the open interests for January, May, and September contracts were 495726, 232562, and 4234, with changes of - 1873, 10864, and 376. For PP, they were 557253, 263547, and 12254, with changes of - 29319, 19590, and 661 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 64, - 41, and 105 (current values), compared to - 61, - 44, and 105 (previous values). For PP, they were - 98, - 42, and 140 (current values), compared to - 102, - 63, and 165 (previous values) [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: Methanol futures were at 2118 yuan/ton (previous value 2100), Shandong propylene at 6050 yuan/ton (previous value 6075), South China propane at 574 dollars/ton (previous value 564), PP recycled materials at 5600 yuan/ton (unchanged), North China powder at 6140 yuan/ton (unchanged), and mulch film at 8700 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7350, 6700 - 7000, and 7000 - 7350. For PP, they were 6250 - 6450, 6150 - 6350, and 6350 - 6550 [2] Information - Due to the US Thanksgiving holiday, trading was light. International oil prices continued to rise in volatility. WTI for January 2026 was at 59.10 dollars/barrel in electronic trading, up 0.45 dollars or 0.77%. Brent crude for January 2026 settled at 63.34 dollars/barrel, up 0.21 dollars or 0.33% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed higher. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow strongly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, supporting copper prices in the long term. Suggestions include monitoring changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally high. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Overall, zinc supply - demand differences are not significant, and prices may fluctuate within a range [2] Market Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Date Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - Month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 86,930 | 60 | 10,930 | 16.56 | 156,500 | - 75 | | Aluminum | 21,470 | - 60 | 2,832 | - 28.45 | 541,725 | - 2,000 | | Zinc | 22,380 | 45 | 3,022 | 165.44 | 49,925 | 1,925 | | Nickel | 116,710 | - 2,980 | 14,840 | - 197.06 | 254,520 | 1,038 | | Lead | 16,945 | - 60 | 1,984 | - 38.94 | 264,975 | 400 | | Tin | 301,460 | - 4,590 | 37,925 | 126.15 | 3,125 | 40 | [2]