Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meals: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meals showed a strong and volatile trend. The USDA's August supply - demand report led to a decrease in the estimated production of new - crop US soybeans due to a significant reduction in the planting area. The final ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season decreased, and the price of US soybeans was supported during the critical growth period, providing strong support for the import cost of domestic soybean meal [3]. - Oils: Night trading of rapeseed and palm oils closed up, while soybean oil closed slightly down. The MPOB August report indicated that the actual inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than market expectations, and the inventory accumulation was less than expected. Affected by the news of large - scale confiscation of illegal palm plantations in Indonesia, it is expected that oils will show a strong and volatile trend in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures showed that the closing price of soybean oil was 8516, down 18 (-0.21%); palm oil was 9584, up 124 (1.31%); rapeseed oil was 9826, up 69 (0.71%); soybean meal was 3155, up 18 (0.57%); rapeseed meal was 2688, up 39 (1.47%); and peanuts were 8844, up 26 (0.29%) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios among different varieties and contract months changed. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil increased from 28 to 32, and the P9 - 1 spread of palm oil increased from - 66 to - 50 [2]. 3.2 International Futures Market - The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4338 ringgit/ton, unchanged; CBOT soybeans were 1043 cents/bushel, down 2 (-0.22%); CBOT US soybean oil was 53 cents/pound, unchanged; and CBOT US soybean meal was 294 dollars/ton, down 3 (-0.92%) [2]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various varieties changed. For example, the price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.46%, and the price of Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil increased by 2.88% [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads also changed. For example, the basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 214, and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 540 to - 760 [2]. 3.4 Import and Crushing Profits - Import and crushing profits of different varieties changed. For example, the import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil increased from - 250 to - 204, and that of near - month US Gulf soybeans decreased from - 93 to - 185 [2]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts for soybean oil increased from 14,840 to 15,310, while the warehouse receipts for palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts remained unchanged [2]. 3.6 Industry Information - **US Soybean**: As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.91 per bushel, a 5.8% decrease from the previous week. The average crushing profit in 2024 was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023 [3]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - On August 18, 2025, the total market capitalization of A-shares exceeded 100 trillion yuan for the first time, driven by top - level policies and financial policies, with significant inflow of incremental funds and strong economic resilience [1]. - In 2025, domestic liquidity remains loose, in a policy window period. There may be more incremental policies in the second half of the year, and external risks are gradually easing. The stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but sector rotation is accelerating and structural differentiation exists [2][11]. - Precious metals may show an oscillating trend under the warming of interest - rate cut expectations, with long - term drivers still providing support for gold [3][19]. - The trend of crude oil needs to pay attention to the OPEC production increase situation, and the unemployment rate in the US may rise in August [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fluctuated slightly. The previous trading day saw an increase in the stock index, with the communication sector leading the rise and the real - estate sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.81 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 7.542 billion yuan on August 15. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive [2][11]. - **Precious Metals**: Last week, unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver. Although there are factors supporting the price, the current high price makes gold hesitant to rise, and gold and silver may oscillate [3][19]. - **Crude Oil**: SC night trading rose 0.7%. The US - Russia talks over the weekend had no clear conclusion. The unemployment rate in the US may rise to 4.3% in August, and attention should be paid to OPEC production increase [4][13]. b. Main News of the Day - **International News**: US President Trump met with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House, and a trilateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine may be held. Trump also said he would not rule out sending US troops to participate in peace - keeping missions in Ukraine [5]. - **Domestic News**: Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stabilizing market expectations, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and consolidating the real - estate market [6]. - **Industry News**: The National Medical Insurance Work Symposium announced nine key tasks, including starting to formulate the DRG 3.0 grouping plan, improving the maternity insurance system, and exploring national unified follow - up procurement after the expiration of the centralized procurement agreement [7]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the key varieties part, the market is in a favorable period, but sector rotation and differentiation need attention [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.778%. The bond market may continue to be under pressure, and the price difference between new and old bonds and long - and short - term bonds may widen [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: As mentioned before, pay attention to OPEC production increase and the US unemployment rate [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night trading fell 1.04%. The overall domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory continued to accumulate. It is short - term bullish [14][15]. - **Rubber**: The price support mainly comes from the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the price may oscillate and fall [16]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin futures were weak. The market is still mainly driven by supply and demand, and the inventory digestion is slow. Pay attention to the autumn restocking market and cost changes [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures are in the process of inventory digestion. The prices have stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: As described above, affected by inflation data and other factors, it shows an oscillating trend [3][19]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the balance of multiple factors, and attention should be paid to US tariffs and other factors [20][21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term, affected by factors such as US tariffs and supply - demand [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply is expected to increase slightly in August, demand is also growing, and inventory is in a complex state. There is a risk of correction after the previous rise, and short - selling should be cautious [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the inventory is being depleted. It is expected to rise in the second half of the year, and the market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated narrowly. The market is under pressure, and the multi - empty game is intensifying [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The US Department of Agriculture adjusted the soybean production forecast, and the soybean futures inventory is tightening. The price of the domestic protein meal has strong support [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report has a neutral - to - bullish impact on the market. Affected by news from Indonesia, the short - term trend of oils and fats is expected to be bullish and oscillating [29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is expected to be oscillating and bearish, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory, and is expected to be oscillating [30]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose. The domestic cotton market supply is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend may be oscillating and bullish, but the upside space is limited [31]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC oscillated slightly. The SCFIS European line price decreased. The market is concerned about the off - season freight rate decline rate and the support of deep discounts [32][33].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output and mixed domestic downstream demand factors such as stable growth in the power industry, positive growth in automobile production and sales, slowing growth in home appliance output, and weak real - estate. Attention should be paid to factors like US tariff progress, the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The concentrate processing fees have been rising, and the domestic supply of concentrates has improved significantly this year with potential recovery in smelting supply. Domestic downstream demand shows positive growth in automobile production and sales and stable growth in infrastructure, but slowing growth in home appliance output and weak real - estate. Attention should be paid to factors like US tariff progress, the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Weekend night - session copper prices rose slightly. The current low concentrate processing fees are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, automobile production and sales growing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real - estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 79,170 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 170 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,760 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 93.75 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 155,850 tons, and the daily change was - 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Weekend night - session zinc prices closed lower. The concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real - estate is weak. This year, the concentrate supply has improved significantly, and smelting supply may recover. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,595 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,797 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 5.22 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 77,450 tons, and the daily change was - 1,025 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,755 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 0 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,603 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 1.79 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 479,675 tons, and the daily change was 1,050 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,360 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,870 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,195 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 207.88 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 211,140 tons, and the daily change was 42 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 155 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,981 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.24 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 261,675 tons, and the daily change was - 550 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 269,660 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 3,480 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,610 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 63.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 1,830 tons, and the daily change was 50 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week's unexpected inflation data pressured gold and silver. The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month, far higher than the market expectation of 0.2%, and 3.3% year - on - year, hitting a five - month high, cooling the expectation of significant interest rate cuts. However, the employment market's weakening may support gold and silver prices. The overall trade environment is still deteriorating, and the "Big and Beautiful Act" is pushing up the US fiscal deficit expectation. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, and gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts warms up [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 775.08 and 777.18 respectively, with price drops of - 0.72 and - 0.62, and declines of - 0.09% and - 0.08%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9217.00 and 9236.00 respectively, with price increases of 13.00 and 10.00, and rises of 0.14% and 0.11% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 160609 and 30505, and the open interests are 197655 and 131073. The trading volumes of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 420183 and 93581, and the open interests are 346128 and 224024 [2] - **Spot Premium and Discount**: The spot premiums and discounts of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 1.99 and - 4.09, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 29.00 and - 48.00 [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D are 773.09, 770.26, and 9188.00 respectively. The price changes are - 2.01, 0.47, and - 86.00, and the changes are - 0.26%, 0.06%, and - 0.93%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver is 37.99, with a price increase of 0.01 and a rise of 0.03% [2] - **Price Ratios and Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 2.10, 19, 84.14, 7.21, and 7.52 respectively, with corresponding previous values of 2.00, 22, 83.58, 7.23, and 7.60 [2] Inventory - **Inventory Changes**: The current inventories of SHFE gold, SHFE silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver are 36,345 kg, 1,141,555 kg, 38,636,332, and 507,551,254 respectively. The changes are - (no change), - 9,227.00 kg, - 6,088.67, and 536643 [2] Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US Dollar Index, Standard & Poor's Index, US Treasury Yield, Brent Crude Oil, and USD/CNY are 97.8467, 6449.8, 4.33, 66.13, and 7.1891 respectively. The changes are - 0.36%, - 0.29%, 0.93%, 0.01%, and 0.09% [2] Derivatives - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 [2] Macro News - **Geopolitical News**: US President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky on August 18, and there may be a tri - party meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Russia has made "some concessions" on five Ukrainian regions, and Putin has agreed to include a "NATO - like Article 5" security guarantee clause in the future peace agreement. The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [3] - **Economic Data**: The US July PPI rose 0.9% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year, far higher than expectations. The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, and the core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, slightly higher than expected. The July non - farm payroll data was lower than expected, and the previous value was significantly revised down [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy signals are clear, and the valuation starts to be repaired in advance, but the fundamentals have not been verified. The supporting effect of the policy end on the stock index will decrease in the later stage [2] - The stock index still maintains a good upward trend, and the market's enthusiasm for going long is high [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, A - shares have a high investment cost - performance ratio. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are supported by more science and innovation policies and may bring higher returns, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts increased, with the price increases of 20.40, 33.40, 38.80, and 42.00 for IF current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter contracts respectively. The trading volumes were 13599.00, 90646.00, 28331.00, and 8179.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 18664.00, - 1010.00, 4354.00, and 1883.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts increased, with price increases of 3.40, 9.60, 11.20, and 15.60 for IH current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter contracts respectively. The trading volumes were 7048.00, 52795.00, 13707.00, and 3746.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 9100.00, - 406.00, 3833.00, and 1062.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts increased, with price increases of 109.80, 134.80, 136.20, and 141.40 for IC current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter contracts respectively. The trading volumes were 10893.00, 77380.00, 23724.00, and 10050.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 14200.00, 14105.00, 4243.00, and 2741.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts increased, with price increases of 100.40, 150.00, 160.40, and 163.00 for IM current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter contracts respectively. The trading volumes were 21170.00, 163237.00, 53477.00, and 19693.00 respectively, and the changes in open interest were - 25264.00, 14638.00, 7010.00, and 4365.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, for example, the current value of the IF next month - current month spread was 4.40, and the previous value was - 8.80 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 index increased by 0.79%, the SSE 50 index increased by 0.12%, the CSI 500 index increased by 2.16%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 2.02% [1] - **Industry Index Performance**: Among different industries, the raw materials industry had a 1.38% increase, the industrial industry had a 0.93% increase, the optional consumption industry had a 0.61% increase, the information technology industry had a 1.68% increase, etc. Some industries such as the main consumption industry had a decline of - 0.15% [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between different stock index futures contracts and their corresponding spot indexes changed, for example, the basis between IF current month contract and CSI 300 index changed from - 0.71 two days ago to 2.65 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.60%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 1.08%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.61% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.98%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 1.71%, the DAX index decreased by 0.29%, and the S&P index decreased by 0.07% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - US President Trump will meet with Ukrainian President Zelensky at the White House on August 18, and if things go well, a tri - party meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine will be arranged. EU and NATO leaders will also participate in the meeting [2] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chen Maobo said that the international geopolitical situation is evolving, and US tariff measures will continue to suppress global trade. There are both challenges and opportunities, and Hong Kong should transform the tension in the economic transformation process into a driving force for economic upgrading [2] - EU Commission President von der Leyen met with Ukrainian President Zelensky, reiterated Ukraine's right to decide its own territorial issues, and said that the EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia to be announced in early September [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games ended successfully in Beijing on August 17. It was the world's first comprehensive sports event for humanoid robots, with 26 events, 487 matches, and teams from 16 countries participating. The World Humanoid Robot Sports Federation was officially established [2] - Thirteen wealth management companies including Everbright Wealth Management and Agricultural Bank of China Financial Management disclosed their 2025 H1 wealth management business reports. Eight companies' product scale increased, with BNP Paribas Agricultural Bank of China Financial Management leading with a 64.83% increase, while four companies' scale decreased, and Agricultural Bank of China Financial Management had the largest shrinkage of about 216.3 billion yuan compared to the end of last year [2] - Hainan Province issued a three - year action plan for high - quality development of marine tourism (2025 - 2027), deploying eight key actions, including building surfing, diving, and sea - fishing bases and developing the "low - altitude + ocean" tourism model [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report shows that on the previous trading day, the prices of treasury bond futures fluctuated. The bond market was affected by multiple factors, including macro - economic data, central bank policies, and overseas bond market trends. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds in China increased slightly, while short - term market interest rates also fluctuated. The bond - equity and bond - commodity market seesaw effect will continue, and the price of treasury bond futures may continue to weaken. The price differentiation between new and old bonds and between long - and short - term bonds will intensify, and the inter - period and inter - variety spreads may also widen [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: On the previous trading day, the prices of treasury bond futures fluctuated. For example, the T2509 contract decreased by 0.03%, and the TL2509 and TL2512 contracts decreased by 0.34% and 0.38% respectively. However, the TS2512 contract increased by 0.01% [2]. - **Position and Volume**: The position and trading volume of each contract also changed. For instance, the position of the T2509 contract decreased by 5887, while the position of the T2512 contract increased by 8733 [2]. - **Arbitrage Opportunity**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to treasury bond futures contracts was relatively high, indicating certain arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term domestic treasury bonds fluctuated. The 10 - year treasury bond yield increased by 0.73bp to 1.74%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 32.22bp [2]. - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term overseas treasury bonds also changed. The 10 - year US treasury bond yield increased by 4bp, the 10 - year German treasury bond yield increased by 8bp, and the 10 - year Japanese treasury bond yield increased by 1.1bp [2]. 3.3 Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On August 15, the central bank carried out 238 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 116 billion yuan on that day. This week, there will be 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 220 billion yuan of treasury cash time deposits due [3]. - **Economic Policies**: The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain ample liquidity, and promote a reasonable recovery of prices. It also emphasized the use of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas [3]. - **Economic Data**: In July, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year - on - year. From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, while real estate development investment decreased by 12% [3]. 3.4 Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On August 15, most money market interest rates increased. For example, the 1 - day and 7 - day weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased by 8.46bp and 3.74bp respectively [3]. - **US Treasury Bond Yields**: US treasury bond yields increased across the board. The 2 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year yields increased by 1.60bp, 2.79bp, 1.90bp, 3.11bp, and 4.46bp respectively [3]. 3.5 Comments and Strategies The bond - equity and bond - commodity market seesaw effect will continue, and the price of treasury bond futures may continue to weaken. The price differentiation between new and old bonds and between long - and short - term bonds will intensify, and the inter - period and inter - variety spreads may also widen. The central bank's policy of maintaining ample liquidity will support the short - end treasury bond futures prices to some extent [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin futures showed narrow - range consolidation. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The market heat has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, inventory is slowly being digested, and the market is in a stage of stopping decline after a previous rebound. However, short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate, and the de - stocking process in summer is tortuous. Fortunately, the domestic macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and the terminal备货 demand may gradually pick up in mid - to late August. The market should focus on the rhythm of the autumn stocking market after supply - demand digestion and potential changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7351, 7346, and 7306 respectively, with changes of 8, - 1, and 19 and percentage changes of 0.11%, - 0.01%, and 0.26%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7084, 7080, and 7058 respectively, with changes of - 1, - 7, and - 8 and percentage changes of - 0.01%, - 0.10%, and - 0.11% [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 185379, 2572, and 67045 respectively, and the open interests were 318815, 16838, and 173330 respectively, with changes of 14919, 834, and - 22825. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 175405, 7038, and 52887 respectively, and the open interests were 363357, 25996, and 110716 respectively, with changes of 12810, 2433, and - 15155 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 40, and - 45 respectively, compared to previous values of - 4, 60, and - 56. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 4, 22, and - 26 respectively, compared to previous values of - 2, 21, and - 19 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2415 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6830 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2437 yuan/ton, 6475 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6860 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7750 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Friday (August 15), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.80 per barrel, down $1.16 or 1.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.68 - $64.15. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.85 per barrel, down $0.99 or 1.48% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.73 - $67.06 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as international political events, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4]. - For financial products, the stock index may continue to rise in the short - term, but the policy support effect may weaken later. The bond market may continue to be under pressure [12][13]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of different products are affected by supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and international policies [14][15][16]. - In the metal market, precious metals may fluctuate due to inflation data and interest - rate expectations, while base metals are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and tariffs [20][21][22]. - In the agricultural product market, different products are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and international trade policies [28][29][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: SC night - trading declined slightly. The US unemployment rate may rise in August, inflation has intensified, and the possibility of the Fed's September interest - rate cut has decreased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Inflation data has put pressure on gold and silver. However, the weakening employment market and long - term driving factors support the prices. They may show a volatile trend under the increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts [3][20]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [4][25]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The US - Russia leaders' meeting made progress, and the US may promote a broader peace agreement. The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government is promoting the construction of a commodity trading ecosystem and plans to develop Hong Kong into an international gold trading center [7]. - **Industry News**: Thirteen wealth - management companies have disclosed their semi - annual reports. Most of them are concentrating on public - offering and fixed - income products [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - Different overseas market indices and commodities have different price changes, including increases and decreases in stock indices, commodities, and currencies [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.4.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has risen, but the policy support may weaken later. A - shares have high investment value in the long - term, with different indices having different characteristics [11][12]. - **Treasury Bond**: The long - end bond price has fallen. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has decreased, and the bond market may continue to be under pressure [13]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Similar to the key variety analysis, pay attention to OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: The short - term trend is mainly bullish, with inventory accumulation and a relatively high operating rate [15]. - **Rubber**: The price is mainly supported by the supply side, and the demand side is weak. It may fluctuate and decline [16][17]. - **Polyolefin**: The market is in a stable stage after a rebound, and the terminal demand may pick up in the second half of August [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the price decline has stopped. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed [19]. 3.4.3 Metal - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the key variety analysis, they may show a volatile trend [20]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the balance of supply and demand factors [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also growing. The price may have a callback risk and then rise if the inventory is digested [23]. 3.4.4 Black - **Iron Ore**: The demand is supported, but the supply may increase in the second half of the year. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [24]. - **Steel**: Similar to the key variety analysis, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is restricted by various factors, and attention should be paid to future supply and iron - water production [26]. 3.4.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The US soybean production is expected to decrease, and the domestic soybean meal is expected to be bullish. The impact of the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping event has weakened [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is lower than expected, but the market is under short - term pressure [29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar price is supported by low inventory but may be dragged down by processing sugar [30]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen, and the domestic cotton price may be volatile and slightly bullish, but the upside space is limited [31]. 3.4.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate has declined, and the 10 - contract price is at a deep discount to the spot price. Attention should be paid to the follow - up price cuts of other shipping companies [32].

20250801申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2510 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2510 | 沪银2512 | | | | 现价 | 770.92 | 773.12 | 8935.00 | 8957.00 | | | 期 | 前收盘价 | 770.28 | 772.24 | 9008.00 | 9033.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | 0.64 | 0.88 | -73.00 | -76.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.08% | 0.11% | -0.81% | -0.84% | | | 场 | | | | | | | | | 持仓量 | 217080 | 119395 | 371110 | 210165 | | | | 成交量 | 260701 | 36959 | 1100640 | 141471 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The A-share market has a high investment cost-performance ratio in the long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies, and their high growth potential may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro environment. The proportion of medium and long-term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing stock market volatility. Currently, policy signals are clear, and valuations are starting to recover, but the fundamentals have not been verified [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Market 1. Futures Contracts - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 20.00, 20.80, 16.40, and 18.20 respectively. The trading volumes were 23,577.00, 53,170.00, 12,168.00, and 3,531.00, and the open interest decreased by 4,718.00, 7,721.00, increased by 562.00, and increased by 685.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 16.40, 17.00, 17.20, and 15.40 respectively. The trading volumes were 12,022.00, 30,341.00, 4,009.00, and 855.00, and the open interest decreased by 599.00, 2,625.00, 72.00, and 155.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts decreased slightly, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 1.40, 1.80, 2.00, and 3.80 respectively. The trading volumes were 21,529.00, 39,078.00, 11,549.00, and 4,777.00, and the open interest decreased by 2,979.00, 2,797.00, 128.00, and increased by 1,671.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts increased slightly, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter rising by 2.00, 2.20, 0.80, and 0.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 32,877.00, 98,231.00, 21,466.00, and 6,839.00, and the open interest decreased by 3,636.00, 8,546.00, 339.00, and increased by 1,231.00 respectively [1] 2. Inter - month Spreads - The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with the current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month being - 6.80, 1.20, - 45.20, and - 62.40 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 5.80, 1.20, - 43.60, and - 57.20 [1] II. Spot Market 1. Major Indexes - **CSI 300 Index**: The index decreased by 0.53%, with a previous value of 4,127.16, a trading volume of 27.359 billion lots, and a total trading value of 430.446 billion yuan [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The index decreased by 0.60%, with a previous value of 2,795.51, a trading volume of 5.169 billion lots, and a total trading value of 114.043 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The index increased by 0.10%, with a previous value of 6,299.59, a trading volume of 23.706 billion lots, and a total trading value of 304.368 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The index increased by 0.08%, with a previous value of 6,706.61, a trading volume of 26.4 billion lots, and a total trading value of 363.14 billion yuan [1] 2. Industry Indexes - Different industries showed different trends. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors decreased by 1.10%, 0.59%, 1.21%, and 1.48% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology sectors decreased by 1.65%, 0.30%, 0.32%, and increased by 1.43% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors decreased by 0.53% and 0.70% respectively [1] III. Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes changed compared to the previous two days. For example, the basis of IF current month - CSI 300 was - 4.36, compared to - 2.04 two days ago [1] IV. Other Indexes 1. Domestic Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.22%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.23% [1] 2. International Indexes - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.09%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.88%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.40%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.32% [1] V. Macro Information - A batch of new regulations came into effect on August 1st, including the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance", the "Measures for the Administration of Anti - Money Laundering and Counter - Terrorist Financing of Precious Metals and Gemstone Institutions", etc. The US will resume imposing so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1st. The State Council Executive Meeting approved the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Initiative" and deployed loan interest subsidy policies. The July China Manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized work in nine aspects for the second half of the year [2] VI. Industry Information - The National Healthcare Security Administration formulated a new pricing mechanism for newly launched drugs and added more than 100 price items related to medical new technologies. The National Energy Administration is formulating policies for high - power charging facilities construction. In the first half of the year, the country's renewable energy new installed capacity was 268 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 99.3%. The financial regulatory authority required urban commercial medical insurance to highlight its inclusive nature [2]