1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, both manganese - silicon and silicon - iron lack a clear trend and will continue to fluctuate. The market is waiting for a driving force to move upwards [1][77]. - The overall sentiment for commodities is expected to continue in a bullish direction, but the current market focus is on precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and lithium carbonate. The black metal sector currently lacks capital interest [16][95]. - The supply - demand situation of manganese - silicon is not ideal, with a loose structure, high inventory, and weak downstream demand in the building materials industry. However, these factors are mostly priced in. The supply - demand of silicon - iron is generally balanced and has marginal improvement [16][95]. - The future market trends of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron will be influenced by the direction of the black metal sector and market sentiment, as well as cost increases from manganese ore in the manganese - silicon segment and supply contractions (or contraction expectations) due to losses or the "dual carbon" policy in the silicon - iron segment [16][95]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manganese - Silicon Report 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Last week, the manganese - silicon futures price showed a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding, continuing to fluctuate, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton or - 0.07%. Technically, it lacks a clear trend and is in a consolidation phase. Pay attention to the resistance at 6000 yuan/ton and 6250 yuan/ton and the support at 5800 yuan/ton and 5700 yuan/ton [13]. - The Tianjin 6517 manganese - silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM605) closed at 5856 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 0.580%, at a relatively neutral level [15][21]. - The estimated immediate profit of manganese - silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 396 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 631 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 475 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week) [15][26]. - The estimated immediate cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6076 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), 6201 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), and 6225 yuan/ton in Guangxi (unchanged week - on - week) [15][31]. - The weekly output of manganese - silicon was 19.11 tons, up 0.06 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and the cumulative weekly production decreased by about 4.28% compared with the same period last year [15][45]. - The weekly output of rebar was 199.55 tons, up 9.25 tons week - on - week. The daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week [15][59]. - The estimated visible inventory of manganese - silicon was 56.47 tons, up 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the visible inventory remained at a high level compared to the same period [15][70]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - The Tianjin 6517 manganese - silicon spot price was 5700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SM605) closed at 5856 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 34 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 0.580%, at a relatively neutral level [21]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - The estimated immediate profit of manganese - silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 396 yuan/ton (down 41 yuan/ton week - on - week), Ningxia at - 631 yuan/ton (down 31 yuan/ton week - on - week), and Guangxi at - 475 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton week - on - week) [25][26]. - As of January 23, 2026, South African ore was reported at 36.2 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.3 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week), Australian ore at 41.6 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.4 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week), Gabonese ore at 42.7 yuan/ton - degree (down 0.6 yuan/ton - degree week - on - week), and the market price of off - grade metallurgical coke was 1185 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [28]. - The estimated immediate cost of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6076 yuan/ton (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), 6201 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 29 yuan/ton week - on - week), and 6225 yuan/ton in Guangxi (unchanged week - on - week) [31]. - In December, the manganese ore import volume was 327.4 tons, up 58 tons month - on - month and up 72.3 tons year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to December was 3284.2 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 356 tons or 12.17% [34]. - As of January 16, 2026, the manganese ore port inventory continued to decline, reporting 421.8 tons, up 4.3 tons week - on - week. Among them, the total Australian manganese ore port inventory was 71.1 tons, up 2.0 tons week - on - week, and the total high - grade manganese ore port inventory was 129.2 tons, up 5.1 tons week - on - week [37][40]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of manganese - silicon was 19.11 tons, up 0.06 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and the cumulative weekly production decreased by about 4.28% compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, the output of manganese - silicon was 84.35 tons, down 0.53 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 2.21 tons or 0.22% year - on - year [45]. - The Hebei Steel Group's manganese - silicon tender volume in January 2026 was 17000 tons, up 2300 tons month - on - month; the tender price was 5920 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [56]. - As of January 23, 2026, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese - silicon was 11.68 tons, up 0.11 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar was 199.55 tons, up 9.25 tons week - on - week. The daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week [59][62]. - In December 2025, the national crude steel output was 6818 tons, down 172 tons month - on - month and down 782 tons year - on - year. The cumulative crude steel output from January to December was 950 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4122 tons or 4.16% [62]. - As of January 23, 2026, the steel mill profitability rate increased by 0.86 pct week - on - week to 40.69%, showing a recovery [63]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of January 23, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of manganese - silicon was 56.47 tons, up 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the visible inventory remained at a high level compared to the same period [70]. - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises in the Steel Union's statistics was 37.3 tons, up 0.02 tons week - on - week [73]. - In December, the average available days of manganese - silicon in steel mills was 15.52 days, down 0.32 days month - on - month. The available days of steel mill inventory decreased slightly month - on - month and remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period [76]. 3.2 Silicon - Iron Report 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Last week, the silicon - iron futures price showed a trend of hitting the bottom and then rebounding, continuing to fluctuate, with a week - on - week decrease of 76 yuan/ton or + 1.37%. Technically, it lacks a clear short - term trend. Pay attention to the resistance at 5850 yuan/ton and 6000 yuan/ton and the support at 5500 yuan/ton and 5450 yuan/ton [91]. - The daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week. The cumulative output of magnesium metal from January to December 2025 was 87.31 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.36 tons or 0.41% [92]. - The cumulative export volume of silicon - iron from January to December 2025 was 40.09 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.79 tons or 6.50% [92]. - The estimated visible inventory of silicon - iron was 11.32 tons, down 0.29 tons week - on - week. The inventory continued to decline and remained at a relatively low - to - neutral level compared to the same period [93][139]. - The Tianjin 72 silicon - iron spot price was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5652 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 198 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 3.38%, at a relatively high level [94][100]. - The estimated immediate profit of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia was - 223 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), - 290 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), and - 797 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [94][104]. - The estimated production cost in the main production areas: 5553 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (unchanged week - on - week), 5590 yuan/ton in Ningxia (unchanged week - on - week), and 6097 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [94][111]. - The weekly output of silicon - iron was 9.84 tons, down 0.02 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and at a low level compared to the same period [94][116]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - The Tianjin 72 silicon - iron spot price was 5850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closed at 5652 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 198 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis rate was 3.38%, at a relatively high level [100]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - The estimated immediate profit of silicon - iron in Inner Mongolia was - 223 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week), - 290 yuan/ton in Ningxia (down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week), and - 797 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [104]. - As of January 23, 2026, the silicon stone price in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the semi - coke small material price was 780 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [108]. - The estimated production cost in the main production areas: 5553 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia (unchanged week - on - week), 5590 yuan/ton in Ningxia (unchanged week - on - week), and 6097 yuan/ton in Qinghai (unchanged week - on - week) [111]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - As of January 23, 2026, the weekly output of silicon - iron was 9.84 tons, down 0.02 tons week - on - week, basically stable, and at a low level compared to the same period. In December 2025, the output of silicon - iron was 45.42 tons, down 1.69 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 3.77 tons or 0.67% year - on - year [116]. - The Hebei Steel Group's 75B silicon - iron alloy tender volume in January 2026 was 3313 tons, up 563 tons month - on - month and up 1130 tons year - on - year. The tender price in January was 5760 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month [122]. - As of January 23, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 228.10 tons, up 0.09 tons week - on - week. In December 2025, the national crude steel output was 6818 tons, down 172 tons month - on - month and down 782 tons year - on - year. The cumulative crude steel output from January to December was 950 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4122 tons or 4.16% [125]. - The cumulative output of magnesium metal from January to December 2025 was 87.31 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.36 tons or 0.41%. As of January 23, 2026, the magnesium metal price in Fugu area was 16250 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton week - on - week [128]. - The cumulative export volume of silicon - iron from January to December 2025 was 40.09 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.79 tons or 6.50%. As of January 23, 2026, the estimated export profit of silicon - iron was - 91 yuan/ton, still at a low level compared to the same period [131]. - The cumulative overseas crude steel output from January to November 2025 was 767 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 170 tons or 0.22% [132]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of January 23, 2026, the estimated visible inventory of silicon - iron was 11.32 tons, down 0.29 tons week - on - week. The inventory continued to decline and remained at a relatively low - to - neutral level compared to the same period [139]. - In December, the average available days of silicon - iron in steel mills was 15.41 days, down 0.39 days month - on - month. The raw material inventory of steel mills decreased slightly month - on - month and remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period [142].

徐绍祖（联系人） 投产错配叠加利润修复， 逢低做多PP5-9价差 聚烯烃周报 2026/01/24 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 估值：聚乙烯周度跌幅（现货＞期货＞成本），聚丙烯周度跌幅（现货＞期货＞成本）。 成本端：上周WTI原油下跌-2.26%，Brent原油下跌-1.92%，煤价下跌-2.14%，甲醇下跌-1.10%，乙烯上涨3.06%，丙烯上涨0.98%， 丙烷下跌-0.33%。成本端止跌反弹。 供应端：PE产能利用率86.54%，环比上涨6.11%，同比去年上涨1.00%，较5年同期下降-6.15%。PP产能利用率75.31%，环比下降- 1.70%，同比去年下降-1.12%，较5年同期下降-13.89%。PE新增产能落地，供应端压力较大。 进出口：12月 ...

商品回暖， 油脂跟随走强 油脂周报 2026/01/24 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：据SPPOMA数据显示，2026年1月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比下滑16.06%，鲜果串单产下滑16.49%出油率上升0.08%。据 MYSTEEL公布的样本数据显示，截止1月16日当周，国内三大油脂库存198万吨，环比前一周减少3万吨。美国政府计划在3月初敲定2026年生 物燃料掺混配额。印尼能源部副部长表示印尼已取消今年将生物柴油强制掺混比例提升至50%的计划（即B50计划)，维持现行B40计划。据 USDA数据显示，1月预估美国豆油消费13.2百万吨，环比12月预估减少0.249百万吨，较上年度增加1百万吨。据印度溶剂萃取商协会数据显 示，印度12月总的植物油进口为138万吨，环比11月增加20万吨。据MPOB公布的数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are poor. The comprehensive corporate profit is at a relatively low - neutral level, but the supply reduction is small and the production is at a historical high. Domestic demand is in the off - season, and the demand side is under pressure. Although there may be a short - term export rush due to the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1, there is significant medium - term export pressure. In the context of strong supply and weak demand in China, the domestic demand is poor and it is difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. In the short term, electricity price expectations, export - rush, and strong commodity sentiment support PVC, but in the medium term, the idea of short - selling on rallies should be adopted before substantial industry production cuts [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,500 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan week - on - week; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is 2,855 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan week - on - week; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 820 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali has dropped to a low level again, while the profit of ethylene - based production has increased, and the current valuation is relatively low - neutral [11]. - **Supply**: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 78.7%, a 0.9% decrease from the previous period. The utilization rate of calcium carbide - based production is 80%, unchanged from the previous period, and the utilization rate of ethylene - based production is 75.7%, a 3.1% decrease from the previous period. Last week, the supply - side load declined, mainly due to the reduced loads of Fujian Wanhua, Shandong Hengtong, and Shaanxi Jintai. It is expected that the load will further decline next week. The overall load in January is still expected to be high, with a small reduction in production and large supply pressure [11]. - **Demand**: Currently in the off - season for exports, but with the planned cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1, there is a short - term rush for exports. The operating rates of the three major downstream industries are stable. The load of the pipe industry is 37%, a 1.6% increase from the previous period; the load of the film industry is 66.1%, a 0.4% decrease from the previous period; the load of the profile industry is 31.5%, a 1.6% increase from the previous period; the overall downstream load is 44.9%, a 1% increase from the previous period. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 884,000 tons, a decrease of 42,000 tons from the previous period [11]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 308,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous period; the social inventory was 1.178 million tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from the previous period; the overall inventory was 1.486 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous period; the number of warehouse receipts has increased. Currently, the inventory has started to accumulate. In the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, domestic demand has entered the off - season. Short - term exports may surge due to the export rush, but there is significant medium - term export pressure and it is difficult to digest the high production volume [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple figures are presented, including PVC term structure, East China SG - 5 price, PVC spot basis, PVC 5 - 9 spread, PVC active contract positions and trading volume, and PVC total positions and trading volume, which reflect the price and trading conditions of the PVC futures and spot market [15][16][18][25][27] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Figures show the in - factory inventory of PVC (including calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based), social inventory, the sum of factory and social inventory, warehouse receipts, and the profits of different production methods (Shandong's externally - purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integrated comprehensive profit, PVC calcium carbide - based profit, PVC ethylene - based profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit) [32][34][40][41] 3.4. Cost Side - Calcium carbide prices have rebounded. The prices of Wuhai and Shandong calcium carbide have increased week - on - week. The report also presents figures on calcium carbide inventory, calcium carbide operating rate, the market price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi, the self - pick - up price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, the market price of liquid chlorine in Shandong, and the CFR spot price of Northeast Asian ethylene, which comprehensively reflect the cost situation of the PVC industry [11][47][48] 3.5. Supply Side - The historical trend of PVC production capacity is presented, along with the PVC production capacity put into operation in 2025, including the details of each device (location, process, production capacity, and commissioning time). The operating rates of PVC (overall, calcium carbide - based, and ethylene - based) and weekly production volume are also shown, reflecting the supply situation of the PVC industry [59][63][68] 3.6. Demand Side - The operating rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC (film, profile, and pipe) are stable. Currently in the export off - season, but there is a short - term export rush due to the upcoming cancellation of export tax rebates. Figures on PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the rolling cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's housing completion area are presented, which comprehensively reflect the downstream demand situation of PVC [11][73][81]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the short - term prices of coking coal and coke will continue to show a slightly stronger oscillating trend, while also highlighting the short - term impact of market sentiment and the current high - volatility risks [19] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Last week, coking coal futures prices generally showed a trend of reaching the bottom and then rebounding, with a wide - range oscillation, and a weekly decline of 12.5 yuan/ton or - 1.06% for the weighted index. Coking coal prices were affected by factors such as the explosion accident at Baogang's plate factory, weak market sentiment, and Trump's tariff statement. Coking coal is in a daily - level rebound cycle, with support around 1130 - 1150 yuan/ton and resistance around 1260 yuan/ton. Coke futures prices also showed a similar trend, with a weekly increase of 5.5 yuan/ton or + 0.32% for the weighted index. Coke prices are approaching the long - term downward trend line since October 2021. If it breaks upward, the resistance around 1850 yuan/ton will be focused on, and the support around 1650 - 1700 yuan/ton will be monitored in the short term [14][17] - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: In terms of spot prices and basis, coking coal and coke have different price and basis changes. The coking coal main contract position is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and non - main contract positions in March and April are abnormally high, so the pressure of warehouse receipts after price increases needs to be watched out for. Domestic coking coal production has slightly increased, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port has rebounded to a high level. Australian coal imports are still unprofitable. Coke production is basically stable, iron - making water production has increased slightly, and the steel mill profitability rate has also increased. The apparent consumption of five major steel products has decreased, and steel inventory is still higher than the same period last year but within an acceptable range [18] - **Supply - Demand Structure and Outlook**: The estimated daily supply of coking coal in the country has slightly increased, and the estimated demand has also increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal has changed little compared with last week. The estimated demand for coke converted from iron - making water is slightly lower than the daily coke production, and the supply - demand structure of coke has also become marginally looser. In terms of inventory, the total coking coal inventory has increased, and the total coke inventory has also increased. Looking forward, the report believes that commodity bulls will continue, but the black sector currently lacks capital interest. Short - term price increases may be limited due to factors such as the marginal loosening of supply - demand structure and low downstream replenishment willingness, but the recent rise in Australian coal prices and the power shortage in the US may have a positive impact on sentiment [19] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: As of January 23, 2026, different types of coking coal and coke have different price changes. For example, the price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi has increased by 9.4 yuan/ton, and the price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke has decreased by 20 yuan/ton [23][34] - **Basis and Calendar Spread**: The basis of coking coal such as Shanxi low - sulfur main - coking coal and Jinquan Mongolian No. 5 coal has increased, and the basis of coke such as Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Lvliang's quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke has decreased. The 5 - 9 calendar spreads of coking coal and coke are negative, and both maintain a Contango structure [41][50] 3. Positions and Variety Ratios - **Positions**: As of January 23, 2026, the total unilateral position of coking coal is 636,600 lots, an increase of 18,800 lots compared with the previous week, and it is still at a relatively high historical level. The unilateral position of coke is 39,800 lots, a decrease of 500 lots compared with the previous week. The position of the coking coal main contract is at a high level in the same period of the past six years, and non - main contract positions in March and April are abnormally high [59][60] - **Variety Ratios**: This week, JM/I has increased by 0.02, HC/JM has increased by 0.02, J/I has increased by 0.05, HC/J has decreased by 0.01, and JM/J has decreased by 0.01. Coking coal is slightly stronger than iron ore and slightly weaker than hot - rolled coils, and coke is slightly stronger than iron ore, hot - rolled coils, and coking coal. Currently, both JM/I and J/I are at relatively low historical levels, indicating that the valuations of coking coal and coke are relatively low compared with iron ore [64][68] 4. Supply and Demand - **Domestic Coking Coal Production**: As of January 23, 2026, the daily average production of clean coal from 523 sample mines is 77.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 tons, but the cumulative production in the sample is about 560,000 tons less than the same period last year, a decrease of 1.88%. The daily average production of clean coal from 314 sample coal - washing plants is 27.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 tons, and the cumulative production in the sample has increased by about 1.15 million tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 18.22% [73][75] - **Imported Coking Coal**: As of January 17, 2026, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port has rebounded to 198,000 tons/day, at an absolute high level in the same period. In 2025, the cumulative import of Mongolian coking coal was 60.074 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2819 million tons or 5.78%. The estimated import profit of Australian Peak View hard coking coal is - 88.6 yuan/ton, and the import window is still closed. In 2025, the cumulative import of Australian coking coal was 8.8562 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4458 million tons or 14.03%. In 2025, the imports of Russian and Canadian coking coal increased, while the import of US coking coal decreased significantly and remained stagnant [78][87] - **Coke Production**: As of January 23, 2026, the total daily average production of coke from 247 steel enterprises and independent coking plants is 1.1021 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 tons, and the cumulative production in the sample is about 460,000 tons less than the same period last year, a decrease of 1.48%. The coking profit of independent coking plants is - 66 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The daily average coke production of 247 steel enterprises is 469,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 tons, and that of independent coking plants is 633,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 tons [90][93] - **Downstream Steel Industry**: As of January 23, 2026, the daily average iron - making water production of 247 steel enterprises is 2.281 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons, and the steel mill profitability rate is 40.69%, a week - on - week increase of 0.86%. The estimated disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils are - 155 yuan/ton and - 97 yuan/ton respectively, and the disk profits continue to recover. The apparent consumption of five major steel products is 8.0952 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 166,000 tons, but a year - on - year increase of 997,400 tons. The available steel inventory is 23.0322 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 2.1633 million tons, still higher than the same period last year but within an acceptable range [96][106] - **Supply - Demand Structure**: The estimated daily supply of coking coal in the country is 1.5333 million tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. The estimated daily demand for coking coal converted from coke production and iron - making water has also increased slightly. The supply - demand structure of coking coal has changed little compared with last week. The estimated daily demand for coke converted from iron - making water is about 1.0949 million tons, still slightly lower than the daily coke production, and the supply - demand structure of coke has also become marginally looser [108] 5. Inventory - **Inventory Overview**: As of January 23, 2026, the total coking coal inventory has increased by 383,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the total coke inventory has increased by 189,400 tons compared with the previous week. Different sectors such as mines, coking plants, steel mills, and ports have different inventory changes [112][113]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The January USDA report data was slightly bearish due to a slight upward revision of the production estimates for the US and Brazil and a slight downward revision of US exports. However, the overall balance sheet situation is still better than that of the 2024/25 season. Recently, the US soybean export sales report shows that China has increased its procurement of US soybeans, which supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for domestic prices. On the other hand, the bearish impact of the significant reduction in the import tariff on Canadian rapeseed has been digested. Overall, the price of protein meal may continue to fluctuate, and short - term investors should wait and see [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: From January 8th to 15th, the US exported 2.45 million tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 33.03 million tons for the current season. During the same period, it exported 1.3 million tons to China, with a cumulative export of 9.42 million tons to China for the current season. From January 9th to 16th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans was 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The port inventory of sample soybeans was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 55.97%, a year - on - year increase of 6.47 percentage points. The soybean meal inventory of sample oil mills was 840,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week. The January forecast for the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season is 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons from the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons from the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points from December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points from the previous season [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The price of protein meal may continue to fluctuate, and short - term investors should wait and see [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents multiple charts related to spot prices, basis of main contracts, inter - month spreads, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, including data from 2022 - 2026 [19][22][25][28]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Planting Progress**: Charts show the defoliation rate and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 - 2025 [37]. - **Weather Conditions**: It provides precipitation observations and comparisons with the same period in previous years for Brazil and the US, as well as precipitation differences in different regions of the US, Brazil, and Argentina [40][42]. - **Export Progress**: It shows the cumulative signing volume, current - season and next - season export volume to China of US soybeans, and the monthly import volume of soybeans and rapeseed in China from different years. It also presents the monthly export volume, export volume to China, weekly and cumulative shipping volume to China of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipping volume to China of Argentine soybeans [48][51][54][60][63][66]. - **Chinese Oil Mill Crushing**: It shows the crushing volume of soybeans and rapeseed in major oil mills from 2022 - 2026 [57]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: It shows the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseed in major oil mills from 2022 - 2026 [71]. - **Protein Meal Inventory**: It shows the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills from 2022 - 2026 [74]. - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: It shows the crushing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseed in coastal areas from 2022 - 2026 [77]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption**: It shows the cumulative transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal from 2022 - 2026 [81]. - **Breeding Profit**: It shows the profit per pig in self - breeding and self - raising and the profit per broiler in white - feather broiler farming from 2022 - 2026 [83].

短线震荡， 等待回调做多 棉花周报 2026/01/24 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 国内市场情况 02 价差走势回顾 04 国际市场情况 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 行业信息：据海关总署数据显示，2025年12月份我国进口棉花18万吨，同比增加4万吨。2025年我国累计进口棉花108万吨，同比减少156万 吨。据Mysteel数据显示，截至1月16日当周，纺纱厂开机率为64.6%，环比前一周下调0.1个百分点，较去年同期增加8.6个百分点；全国棉 花商业库存569万吨，同比增加38万吨。据USDA数据显示，1月预测2025/26年度全球产量为2600万吨，环比12月预测下调8万吨，较上年度增 加20万吨；库存消费比62.63%，环比12月预测减少1.42个百分点，较上年度增加0.62个百分点。其中1月预测美国产量303万吨，环比12月预 测减少7.6万吨，出口预估维持不变，库存消费比30.43%，环比减少2.17个百 ...

02 期现市场 05 供给端 01 徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 做多非一体化利润可逐步止盈， 苯乙烯产业链利润向下转移 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2026/01/24 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 03 利润库存 04 成本端 06 需求端 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：特朗普表示不会武力夺取格林兰岛，地缘冲突压力缓解。 估值：苯乙烯周度涨幅（现货＞期货＞成本），基差走强，BZN价差上涨，EB非一体化装置利润上涨。 成本端：上周华东纯苯现货价格上涨4.35%，纯苯期货活跃合约价格上涨5.28%，纯苯基差下跌58元/吨，纯苯开工率高位震荡。 供应端：EB产能利用率70.86%，环比下降-0.08%，同比去年下降-7.73%，较5年同期下降-11.43%。苯乙烯非一体化利润修复， 开工率随之上升。 进出口：12月国内纯苯进口量为537.16万吨，环比上涨16.87%，同比去年上涨3.78%，主要为中东地区货源。12月EB进口量 31.10万吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the valuation of copper is neutral to bearish, with narrowing basis spreads inside and outside the market, narrowing spreads between refined and scrap copper, and continuously increasing global visible inventories. In terms of drivers, the decline in the US dollar index and copper concentrate prices is bullish, while the global manufacturing PMI is slightly bearish. At the price level, the easing of US - EU tensions, the emphasis on strategic resource demand in Germany, the loose domestic policy, and the record - high precious metal prices create a positive sentiment. The copper supply remains tight, with increased short - term disruptions at the mine end, and the demand for refined copper has improved after the price correction. Therefore, although the global visible inventory continues to increase and the LME North American inventory has marginally rebounded, copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The expected trading range for the main SHFE copper contract this week is 99,000 - 105,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12,600 - 13,500 US dollars/ton [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to decline, and the smelting profit is supplemented by the high price of sulfuric acid. The processing fee for crude copper is flat week - on - week. There are supply disruptions such as the strike at the Canadian Capstone Mantoverde copper mine, road blockades at Escondida and Zaldivar mines, and some companies have adjusted their 2026 copper production guidance [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 905,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons. The inventory in SHFE, LME, and COMEX all increased. The inventory in Shanghai Bonded Area is 108,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons. The obvious inventory backlog shows relatively weak demand [11]. - **Import and Export**: The loss of domestic electrolytic copper spot imports has narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium has decreased. In December 2025, China's refined copper imports were 298,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.19% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.0%. The cumulative imports from January - December were 3.828 million tons, and the net imports were 3.039 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [11]. - **Demand**: Copper prices first declined and then rose. The trading atmosphere in the spot market improved, and the overall transaction was stable. The downstream initial operating rate improved. The spread between refined and scrap copper narrowed, and the substitution of scrap copper was still limited [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: Copper prices first declined and then rose. The main SHFE copper contract rose 0.57% this week, and LME copper rose 2.39% to 13,128.5 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of electrolytic copper and copper products in different regions and varieties are provided, and the price differences are also shown [23]. - **Premium and Discount**: The domestic copper spot in East China was at a discount of 180 yuan/ton to the futures on Friday. LME inventory increased, the cancelled warrant ratio decreased, and Cash/3M turned to a discount, reporting a premium of - 66.1 US dollars/ton on Friday. The domestic electrolytic copper spot import remained at a loss last week, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [26]. - **Market Structure**: The SHFE copper Contango structure widened, and LME copper turned to a Contango structure [30]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Smelting Profit**: The spot rough smelting fee TC for imported copper concentrates continued to decline to - 49.8 US dollars/ton. The sulfuric acid price in East China slightly declined from a high level but still contributed positively to copper smelting revenue [35]. - **Import - Export Ratio**: The offshore RMB appreciated, and the spot SHFE - LME copper ratio rebounded slightly [38]. - **Import - Export Profit and Loss**: The loss of copper spot imports narrowed [41]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 58,000 tons to 905,000 tons. The SHFE inventory increase came from Shanghai, while the inventories in Jiangsu and Guangdong slightly declined. The LME inventory increase came from Asian and North American warehouses, and the cancelled warrant ratio continued to decline [44][47][50]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Production**: In December 2025, China's refined copper production increased month - on - month. It is expected to increase slightly in January 2026. According to NBS data, the refined copper production in December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%, and the cumulative annual production was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [54]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's copper ore imports were 2.704 million tons, a month - on - month increase. The cumulative imports from January - December were 30.31 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. The imports of unforged copper and copper products, anode copper, and refined copper showed different trends in December 2025, and the import sources also changed [57][60][63]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Consumption Structure**: The global and Chinese consumption structures of electrolytic copper are presented, with different proportions in industries such as power, home appliances, and construction [76]. - **PMI**: China's official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs in December 2025 returned above the boom - bust line. Overseas, the manufacturing PMIs of major economies were differentiated [79]. - **Downstream Industry Output**: In December 2025, the output of some copper - related downstream industries increased year - on - year, while others decreased. The cumulative output from January - December also showed different trends [82]. - **Real Estate Data**: In December 2025, domestic real estate data remained weak, with year - on - year declines in new construction, construction, sales, and completion. The National Real Estate Climate Index continued to decline [84]. - **Downstream Enterprise Operating Rates**: The operating rates of different copper - related downstream enterprises in December 2025 showed different trends, and the expected trends for January 2026 are also provided. The operating rates of some enterprises this week showed rebounds or stability [87][90][93][96][99][102]. - **Refined - Scrap Copper Spread**: The domestic refined - scrap copper spread narrowed compared with last week, reporting 2,865 yuan/ton on Friday [107]. 3.6 Capital Side - **SHFE Copper Positions**: The total SHFE copper positions increased by 29,306 to 1,316,486 lots (bilateral), and the positions of the near - month 2602 contract were 186,300 lots (bilateral) [112]. - **Foreign Fund Positions**: As of January 20, CFTC funds maintained a net long position, with a net long ratio of 16.4%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds decreased as of January 23 [115].

03 经济与企业盈利 06 估值 政策稳节奏，短期震荡 股指周报 2026/01/24 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 利率与信用环境 02 期现市场 05 资金面 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 重要消息：1、商业航天：经济观察报从中国星网获悉，计划在2026至2030年间部署1.3万颗低轨卫星，内部已打算启动相关招标流程；2、 机器人：工信部表示，在人工智能技术驱动下，人形机器人产业迭代速度超预期；下一步将以人形机器人为切入点，带动具身智能大产业 发展；3、证监会：对主题型产品投资风格偏离主题、非主题型产品行业集中度过高等风险加强提醒；4、芯片：AMD与Intel近期再度上调 服务器CPU价格，涨价趋势正通过产业链传导至国内市场；5、马斯克：星舰今年目标完全复用 进入太空成本将降至目前的1%；6、以贵金 属为首的有色产品持续走强，外盘金价逼近5000美金。 经济与企业盈利：1、中国2025年全年GDP总量为1401879亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增5% ...