Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The zinc ore's visible inventory is marginally accumulating, and the TC of zinc concentrate has stopped falling and stabilized. The profit of zinc smelting has slightly improved, while the destocking of domestic zinc ingot social inventory has slowed down. After the repair of the Shanghai-London ratio, the situation of element outflow has improved, and the domestic zinc industry remains weak. The US PMI data released on the night of January 23 was slightly lower than expected, and the double-loose policy has not yet been reflected in the economic data. Before the release of the next round of economic data, the non-ferrous sector may enter a period of volatile consolidation, during which the trading focus of Shanghai zinc may shift from strong macro to weak reality [11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 - Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.77% at 24,600 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 223,000 lots in unilateral trading. As of 15:00 last Friday, LME Zinc 3S rose 40 to $3,239/ton compared with the same period of the previous day, with a total open interest of 228,800 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 24,620 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of 40 yuan/ton, a Tianjin basis of -20 yuan/ton, a Guangdong basis of 15 yuan/ton, and a Shanghai-Guangdong price difference of 25 yuan/ton [11] - **Domestic Structure**: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was recorded at 30,000 tons. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on January 22 was 108,600 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from January 19. The basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was 40 yuan/ton, and the difference between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -60 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was recorded at 111,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were recorded at 8,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$36.66/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$26.62/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was recorded at 1.095, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,051.57 yuan/ton [11] - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $30/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 286,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 618,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was recorded at 55.63%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 388,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was recorded at 51.26%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was recorded at 58.66%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11] 02 - Macro Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new orders and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal manufacturing industries, but no specific text analysis is provided [14][16] 03 - Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In December 2025, the zinc ore output was 287,800 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 5.85% and a month - on - month change of -7.58%. From January to December, the total zinc ore output was 3,669,800 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -0.86%. In December 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 462,600 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.15% and a month - on - month change of -10.44%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 5,318,800 dry tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 30.4%. In December 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 496,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 3.82% and a month - on - month change of -8.8%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 6,063,200 metal tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 9.5% [25][27] - **Zinc Concentrate**: The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 286,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 618,000 physical tons. The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 1,500 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was $30/dry ton [11][27][29] - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In December 2025, the zinc ingot output was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.9% and a month - on - month change of -7.2%. From January to December, the total zinc ingot output was 6,834,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.4%. In December 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was -16,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -148.9% and a month - on - month change of -31.5%. From January to December, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 242,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of -48.9%. In December 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 536,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -2.3% and a month - on - month change of -6.3%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 7,076,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.2% [33][35] 04 - Demand Analysis - **Initial - Stage Industries**: The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 55.63%, with a raw material inventory of 12,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 388,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy was 51.26%, with a raw material inventory of 10,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 12,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 58.66%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11][39] - **Apparent Demand**: In December 2025, the domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 553,000 tons, with a year - on - year change of -8.7% and a month - on - month change of -8.5%. From January to December, the cumulative domestic apparent demand for zinc ingots was 6,960,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4% [41] 05 - Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Inventory**: The report presents multiple charts related to zinc ingot factory inventory, in - transit inventory, bonded area inventory, social inventory, and total inventory, but no specific text analysis is provided [45][47][49] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In December 2025, the domestic supply - demand gap of zinc ingots was a shortage of -16,000 tons. From January to December, the cumulative domestic supply - demand gap of zinc ingots was a surplus of 116,000 tons. In October 2025, the overseas supply - demand gap of refined zinc was a shortage of 28,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative overseas supply - demand gap of refined zinc was a surplus of 78,000 tons [52][55] 06 - Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 30,000 tons. On January 22, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 108,600 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from January 19. The basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was 40 yuan/ton, and the difference between the continuous contract and the first continuous contract was -60 yuan/ton [60] - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 111,700 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,800 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$36.66/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$26.62/ton [63] - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.095, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,051.57 yuan/ton [66] - **Position Analysis**: The top 20 positions in Shanghai zinc were only slightly net long. For LME zinc, the net long position of investment funds increased, while the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. From a position perspective, it is neutral in the short term [69]

震荡运行，反弹抛空 生猪周报 2026/01/24 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：上周国内猪价涨后回落，周前期受降温降雪的影响，屠宰端收购积极性提升，带动猪价走高，降雪后需求端减量明显，养殖端出栏积 极性提升，市场再度供过于求，周内出栏均重平稳偏高，肥标价差维持强势；具体看，河南均价周涨0.06元至13.26元/公斤，周内最高13.5元/ 公斤，四川均价周涨0.06元至12.76元/公斤，周内最高13元/公斤，广东均价周涨0.32元至13.38元/公斤；下旬整体出栏量或增加，加之南方市 场需求一般，猪价走势以弱稳为主，但进入2月后受供应有收紧预计，加上节前备货释放，猪价仍有涨价空间。 ◆ 供应端：官方数据显示25年底能繁母猪存栏为3961万头，较高峰减少2.9%，去年以来母猪去化幅度有限，尽管10月份后产能去化有所加速，但 ...

橡胶：丁二烯带动橡胶上涨 橡胶周报 2026/01/24 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 周度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注：化工大涨带动丁二烯和橡胶大涨 ◆ 公众号五矿微服务，每日早晨有最新版，包括各品种最新的产业链动态和观点，包括橡胶早评。及时性较强。欢迎参考。 注释： 后面几十页的数据，一般投资者可泛读，有兴趣深入研究的可以精读。 周报主要更新产业链数据，制表数据量大。有时候出差调研途中，周报会延迟或取消。 另外周报上的观点更新比较慢，如果需要关注我们的观点的最新更新，可以微信关注五矿期货微服务公众号，每天早上开盘前有我们各品种的最新观点和关键数据更新。 （本页开工率数据来源于卓创，和WIND数据小有区别，趋势相同，差别不大。） ◆ 需求：行业如何？轮胎厂全钢开工率62.62%(-0.31%)。全钢胎需求正常。半钢全钢对欧洲出口预期转弱。 ◆ 交易所+青岛 75.96(1.35)万 ...

黑色建材组 黑色建材日报 2026-01-23 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3124 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 7 元/吨（0.224%）。当日注册仓单 28244 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 174.73 万手，环比增加 5016 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘 价为 3287 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 1 元/吨（0.030%）。 当日注册仓单 179427 吨, 环比减少 10475 吨。主 力合约持仓量为 145.33 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of loose policies in the US, Europe, and China, and the recovery of overseas equity markets, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector is not pessimistic. Most metal prices are expected to show different trends of volatility in the short term. The non - ferrous metals sector is generally considered bullish in the medium term during the "double - loose" cycle, but the PMI data on Friday night needs further observation [2][3][13][15] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: LME continued to deliver stocks, precious metal prices strengthened, and copper prices declined and then rebounded. LME copper inventory increased by 8850 to 168,250 tons, with increments from North American and Asian warehouses. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventory accumulation slowed down, and the spot discount of Shanghai and Guangdong regions continued to improve marginally. The loss of spot copper imports in Shanghai narrowed to about 650 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed [2] - **Strategy View**: The copper ore supply remains tight, the LME market spot is relatively strong, but the North American inventory is increasing marginally, and the refined copper supply is relatively surplus. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper today is 99,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME copper 3M is 12,650 - 13,050 US dollars/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fluctuated with precious metals, and aluminum prices oscillated upwards. LME aluminum closed up 0.64% at 3137 US dollars/ton, and the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 24,070 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased with poor market transactions. LME aluminum ingot inventory increased to 509,000 tons [5] - **Strategy View**: The impact of the US - Europe situation has weakened, and the sentiment has returned to the influence of the economy and policies. The high premium of US aluminum spot and the relatively low LME aluminum inventory limit the downside space of aluminum prices. The demand is expected to improve under the expectation of "rush - to - export" in the photovoltaic industry, and short - term aluminum prices still have support. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai aluminum today is 23,900 - 24,300 yuan/ton; the reference range for LME aluminum 3M is 3100 - 3170 US dollars/ton [6][7] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated, the main AD2603 contract closed down 0.17% at 22,855 yuan/ton, the weighted contract position decreased, and the trading volume shrank. The price difference between AL2603 and AD2603 contracts narrowed. Domestic mainstream ADC12 prices were flat, and downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The inventory of domestic mainstream market aluminum alloy ingots decreased, while the in - factory inventory increased [9] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and the supply - side disturbances continue, so the price support is strong, but the demand is relatively average. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [10] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.14% at 17,145 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 7 to 2032 US dollars/ton. The domestic 1 lead ingot average price was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 100 yuan/ton. The domestic and LME lead ingot inventories were 27,800 tons and 222,700 tons respectively. The national main market lead ingot social inventory increased by 4800 tons from January 19 to 34,200 tons on January 22 [12] - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead concentrates declined, the production rate of primary lead remained high and increased slightly. The raw material inventory of secondary lead increased, and the weekly production rate increased marginally. The lead price is still close to the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and the supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally. The production rate of downstream battery enterprises is improving marginally, and the social inventory of lead ingots is accumulating. After the winter temperature drops, the transportation of waste batteries is difficult, the pricing coefficient of waste materials increases, and the smelting profit of secondary lead decreases slightly. The lead price has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades, but the non - ferrous metals sector is still considered bullish in the medium term during the "double - loose" cycle, and the PMI data on Friday night needs further observation [13] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.23% at 24,412 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 5 to 3199 US dollars/ton. The domestic 0 zinc ingot average price was 24,310 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied. The domestic and LME zinc ingot inventories were 30,300 tons and 111,900 tons respectively. The national main market zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3500 tons from January 19 to 108,600 tons on January 22 [14] - **Strategy View**: The port inventory of zinc ore decreased slightly, the import TC of zinc concentrates decreased slightly, and the zinc smelting profit increased slightly with the rise of zinc prices. The social inventory of zinc ingots began to accumulate, and the Shanghai - LME ratio stagnated and declined. Since December 24, 2025, the domestic zinc - copper ratio has reached a new low since the listing of Shanghai zinc in 2007, and since January 9, 2026, the domestic zinc - aluminum ratio has reached a new low since 2013. Zinc prices have a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. Zinc prices are still in the process of catching up with the macro - attribute of the sector. The zinc price has given back some of its gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals sector fades, but the non - ferrous metals sector is still considered bullish in the medium term during the "double - loose" cycle, and the PMI data on Friday night needs further observation [15] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 22, tin prices fell slightly, and the main contract of Shanghai tin closed at 409,010 yuan/ton, down 2.25%. The smelting production rates of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally high and stable, but the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar accelerated, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan was significantly relieved. The sharp rise in tin prices last week significantly suppressed downstream procurement willingness, and the market was lightly traded. As of January 16, 2026, the national main market tin ingot social inventory increased by 2560 tons to 10,636 tons [16] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, the short - term inventory accumulation trend may continue to put pressure on prices, and with the withdrawal of speculative funds, tin prices may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 390,000 - 440,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for overseas LME tin is 48,000 - 54,000 US dollars/ton [17] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 22, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and the main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 140,410 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. In the spot market, the premium and discount of each brand were stable. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose significantly [18] - **Strategy View**: Although the output of refined nickel is expected to increase in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that under the expectation of the reduction of the RKAB quota in Indonesia, Shanghai nickel will still fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME nickel 3M is 16,000 - 19,000 US dollars/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 165,701 yuan, up 3.62%. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 5750 yuan (+3.59%), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3.82%. The LC2605 contract closed at 168,780 yuan, up 1.22%. The weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate decreased by 1.7% to 22,217 tons, and the inventory decreased by 783 tons (-0.7%) [20] - **Strategy View**: The commodity market has rebounded continuously. The main contract of lithium carbonate reached the previous high and then fell back. This week, the weekly output and inventory of domestic lithium carbonate both decreased. The "rush - to - export" of batteries supports the off - season demand, and the domestic output has reached a high point due to the maintenance of lithium salt plants. The short - term supply of the ore end is highly uncertain, the overall commodity market fluctuates greatly, and the sharp rise of lithium prices hides the risk of a callback. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 160,000 - 174,000 yuan/ton [21][22] Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 22, 2026, the alumina index rose 1.7% to 2712 yuan/ton, and the unilateral trading position increased. The Shandong spot price decreased, and the overseas FOB price was stable. The import loss was 77 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipt increased, and the price of bauxite in Guinea decreased [24] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and with the resumption of production in the AXIS mine, the ore price is expected to fluctuate downward. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The market has increased expectations for the implementation of supply - contraction policies, but the continuous rebound still faces three difficulties: over - capacity in the smelting end, downward - moving cost support, and the pressure of expiring warehouse receipt delivery. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2650 - 2800 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [25] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The main stainless - steel contract closed at 14,720 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 2.61%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The price of raw materials such as high - nickel iron and high - carbon ferrochrome was stable or increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased to 883,500 tons, with the 300 - series inventory decreasing by 1.00% [27] - **Strategy View**: On January 14, Indonesia's mining authority said that the annual nickel ore production target is expected to be about 250 - 260 million tons, and the market's optimistic sentiment has increased. Stainless steel has shown a trend of increasing volume and price. Due to the limitation of raw material supply, the production schedules of many mainstream steel mills have slowed down, and the market supply is tight. In the short term, the market is expected to remain strong, and the price may show a high - level oscillation pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,230 yuan/ton [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, in the long - term, policies support the capital market. In the short - term, pay attention to market rhythm and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economy's recovery momentum needs observation. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, but the timing of overall easing may be postponed. The bond market is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. - For precious metals, in the medium - term, the Fed's subsequent interest rate cuts may increase significantly, and there is a strategy of buying on dips for gold and silver [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metals are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors such as supply - demand, policy, and inventory [11][13][15]. - For black building materials, steel products are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. Iron ore may oscillate weakly in the short - term. Coking coal and coke may show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend. Glass and soda ash are expected to maintain their current trends [31][33][38]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different outlooks. For example, crude oil is advised to be observed in the short - term with a low - buying and high - selling strategy; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profit on rallies [53][56][58]. - For agricultural products, different products have different trends. For example, the short - term of live pigs may be strong, but the medium - term may be under pressure; eggs may oscillate; protein meals are advised to wait and see [77][79][82]. 3. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Market Information**: The central bank governor said there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. Some companies' IPOs have new progress, and space - related projects have new plans [2] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips in the long - term and pay attention to market rhythm in the short - term [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Bond contract prices changed slightly. The first batch of 936 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for equipment renewal was issued. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 309 billion yuan [5] - **Strategy View**: The economy's recovery momentum is uncertain. There is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [6] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose. US inflation data was lower than expected, and COMEX silver inventory decreased [7] - **Strategy View**: In the medium - term, the Fed's interest rate cuts may increase, and there is a strategy of buying on dips for gold and silver [8] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: LME copper prices rose, inventory increased, and domestic social inventory accumulation slowed down [10] - **Strategy View**: The market sentiment is not pessimistic, and copper prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [11] - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose, and inventory changes were mixed [12] - **Strategy View**: The decline of aluminum prices is limited, and there is support in the short - term [13] - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices rose slightly, and inventory and other indicators changed [14] - **Strategy View**: Zinc prices have room to catch up, and need to observe PMI data [15] - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices rose slightly, and inventory increased [17] - **Strategy View**: Lead prices may oscillate, and need to observe PMI data [17] - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly, and nickel iron prices rose [18] - **Strategy View**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [18] - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fell slightly, and supply and demand and inventory had certain changes [19] - **Strategy View**: Tin prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices rose, and production and inventory decreased [21] - **Strategy View**: There is a risk of correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [22] - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: Alumina prices rose, and inventory increased [23] - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies [24] - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices rose, and inventory decreased [25][26] - **Strategy View**: The market is expected to be strong, and prices may oscillate at a high level [26] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices oscillated, and inventory changed [27] - **Strategy View**: Prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate [28] Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Steel prices rose slightly, and inventory and other indicators changed [30] - **Strategy View**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom, and need to pay attention to relevant policies [31] - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices rose slightly, and inventory increased [32] - **Strategy View**: Iron ore prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, and need to pay attention to steel mills' replenishment and iron - making rhythm [33] - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Coking coal and coke prices rose slightly, and there were changes in spot prices and basis [34] - **Strategy View**: Coking coal and coke prices may show an oscillatory and slightly stronger trend, and need to pay attention to market sentiment [38] - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Glass prices fell, and soda ash prices fell slightly. Inventory and other indicators changed [39][40] - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate widely, and soda ash is expected to maintain a weak consolidation [39][41] - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose slightly, and there were changes in technical forms [42] - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to market sentiment and cost factors, and wait for driving factors [44] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly, and polysilicon prices rose. Supply and demand and inventory had certain changes [45][46] - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices may oscillate repeatedly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [46][47] Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded, and there were different views on the rise and fall [48] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a neutral view, wait and see, and consider short - selling if the price breaks through a certain level [51] - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Crude oil and related product prices rose [52] - **Strategy View**: Do not be too bearish on oil prices in the short - term, and it is recommended to observe and wait for verification [53][54] - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Methanol prices changed, and MTO profit changed [55] - **Strategy View**: It has the feasibility of buying on dips [56] - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Urea prices changed, and the basis was reported [57] - **Strategy View**: Take profit on rallies [58] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Pure benzene prices were stable, and styrene prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [59] - **Strategy View**: Gradually take profit [61] - **PVC** - **Market Information**: PVC prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [62] - **Strategy View**: Adopt a strategy of short - selling on rallies in the medium - term [63] - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [64] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts, and beware of rebound risks [65] - **PTA** - **Market Information**: PTA prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [66] - **Strategy View**: Enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival, and pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities [67] - **Para - Xylene** - **Market Information**: Para - xylene prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [68] - **Strategy View**: Pay attention to mid - term long - buying opportunities following crude oil [69] - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: PE prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [70] - **Strategy View**: The downward space of PE valuation still exists, and pay attention to the supply - demand situation [72] - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: PP prices rose, and supply, demand, and inventory had certain changes [73] - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand is weak, and consider long - buying the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [74] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices showed a pattern of rising in the north and falling in the south [76] - **Strategy View**: The short - term may be strong, but the medium - term may be under pressure [77] - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly rose [78] - **Strategy View**: Near - term contracts may oscillate, and long - term contracts have uncertain good expectations [79] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Protein meal prices changed, and there were changes in import and inventory data [80][81] - **Strategy View**: Wait and see due to many negative news [82] - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Oil and fat prices rose, and there were changes in production, inventory, and consumption data [83][84][85] - **Strategy View**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term expectations are optimistic, and wait and see in the short - term [86] - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: Sugar prices oscillated weakly, and there were changes in production and import data [87][88] - **Strategy View**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downward space of domestic sugar prices may be limited [89] - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: Cotton prices rebounded, and there were changes in import, inventory, and production data [90][91] - **Strategy View**: There is room for long - term price increase, and wait for correction to buy [92]

贵金属日报 2026-01-23 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： 昨日公布的美国通胀数据低于预期，美国三季度 PCE 年化环比值为 2.8%，低于预期的 3.5%。 同时，美国 11 月核心 PCE 物价指数环比值为 2.8%，符合市场预期。 特朗普宣布暂缓对关键金属征收关税后，COMEX 白银库存持续回落缓解海外现货紧俏情况，库 存由年初的 13981 吨下降至 1 月 21 日的 13135 吨，现货白银租赁利率则回落至 4%之下。但印 度白银抵押贷款新规将于今年 4 月 1 日生效，将持续对白银现货贡献新的需求。 【策略观点】 但从中期来看，美联储后续降息的幅度，尤其是新联储主席在五月份上任以后的宽松幅度将较 目前而言大幅提升，特朗普政府对于鲍威尔的刑事调查以及基于宽松货币政策的联储主席任命 均会对联储独立性形成不可逆的影响，且印度白银在一季度仍具备较大的进口空间。策略上逢 低做多，沪金主力合约参考运行区间 985-1200 元/克，沪银主力合约参考运行区间 21447-27000 元/千克。 zhon ...

专题报告 2026-01-23 报告要点： 供应端，淡季特征逐步显现，海外矿山发运水平在总量相对高位的情况下边际趋势向下。需求 端，安全生产事故影响铁水复产节奏，需求的边际变化由增转降。供需整体边际弱化。从库存 结构看，港口库存高位运行对价格的绝对高度形成压制，但结构性问题未解决。同时，钢厂库 存偏低，临近春节前，价格下行过程中存在一定被动补库支撑。从市场氛围来说，在 12 月下 旬以来商品经历较长时间的偏暖氛围之后，近期进入调整阶段，黑色系商品作为补涨板块，同 样受到情绪变化所带来的冲击影响。 总体来看，铁矿石市场短期面临边际下行压力，价格运行重心或阶段性承压。但考虑到钢厂补 库需求、库存结构性特征以及供应端进入天气扰动因素多发季节，下方空间相对有限。价格更 可能维持震荡偏弱运行，后续则关注发运节奏、铁水产量变化及定价谈判的进一步发展。 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新（联系人） 黑色研究员 陈张滢 铁矿石：供需边际变化下的价格运行 黑色建材研究 | 铁矿石 近期，铁矿石市场在经历前期价格偏强运行后，盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the downside space of the sugar price in the short - term is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic expectations in the future, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the large short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose the opportunity to go long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report data is slightly bearish. Although the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season, the increase in China's purchase of US soybeans supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for the domestic meal prices. The possible significant reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a major bearish factor for domestic rapeseed prices. The protein meal price has fallen to the previous low, and with many bearish news, the short - term volatility will increase. It is recommended to wait and see for now [13]. - For oils and fats, the high production and weak exports in the main palm - oil producing areas have led to high inventories. The inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats is also at a relatively high level, and the current fundamentals are weak. However, in the long - term, the expected reduction of production in Malaysia, the confiscation of illegal plantations in Indonesia, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean - oil consumption in 2026 are positive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [18]. - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under the previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - festival stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the spot price is about to realize the seasonal increase. The near - month contracts have post - festival attributes and may fluctuate with limited upside and downside. The far - end contracts have long - term positive expectations due to the peak of production capacity, but the realization path is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the pressure after over - valuation [21]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated consumption. The large difference between the prices of fat and standard pigs has led to sentiment of holding back sales and delaying slaughter. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has increased significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short - term, the structural contradiction has not been resolved, and the downward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, which may continue to support the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the supply base is still large, and there is a risk of the live - pig inventory piling up later. The far - end price may still be under pressure in the future [24]. Summary by Product Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5158 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5260 - 5330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - **Industry Data**: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar production had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,730 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton or 1.34% from the previous trading day. The spot price of China's cotton price index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week and an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons, the production forecast for India was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and the production forecast for China was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. As of the week of January 8, the US current - year cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China in that week was 13,600 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 85,300 tons, a decrease of 71,200 tons year - on - year [7][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2768 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.58% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2228 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was 3100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was 2440 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - **Industry Data**: In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Among them, the supply from Brazil was 82.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and the supply from the US was 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24%. China and Canada reached a preliminary trade agreement, and China promised to reduce the combined import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15% at one time. As of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 30.64 million tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 1.22 million tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 8.12 million tons. As of the week of January 16, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 55.97%, an increase of 6.47 percentage points year - on - year. The sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 840,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week [12]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8084 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8944 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton or 1.27% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9002 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil was 8650 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8980 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9830 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - **Industry Data**: From January 1 - 20, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 16.49%, and the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08%. As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (i.e., the B50 plan) this year and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. In December 2025, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November 2025. As of the end of December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons. The production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons. The export volume increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons [15][17]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Yesterday, most of the national egg prices rose, and a few remained stable. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.08 yuan to 3.73 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained unchanged at 3.4 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao rose 0.12 yuan to 3.56 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui remained unchanged at 3.64 yuan/jin. The supply was limited, the downstream sales speed increased, most traders' confidence in the future market recovered, the inventory in most links was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. It is expected that most of the national egg prices may rise today, and a few may remain stable [20]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price rose in the north and fell in the south. The average price in Henan rose 0.06 yuan to 13.13 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.1 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg. The breeding side in the northern region showed a mentality of holding back sales, and it may be more difficult for the downstream to purchase pigs at low prices. The pig price may rise slightly today. The sales in the southern market were weak, and the breeding side may still have actions to reduce prices for sales. The pig price may continue to decline [23].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, wait and see as the price needs to test OPEC's export price - support willingness. [2] - For methanol, with low valuation and an improving outlook next year, the downside is limited. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, and there is feasibility to buy on dips. [3] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so take profits on rallies. [6] - For rubber, with a weak seasonal pattern, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. Short - term electricity price expectations and pre - April 1 export rush support the price, but mid - term, short on rallies before significant industry production cuts. [14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high with limited room for upward valuation repair. As the non - integrated profit has significantly recovered, gradually take profits. [17] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. Although the spot price has risen, the valuation has room to decline further. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and reduced coal - based inventory, the price has support, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] - For polypropylene, the EIA report forecasts a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. In a context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] - For PX, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both PX and its downstream PTA will have strong supply - demand, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy on dips following crude oil. [26] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage with high short - term maintenance on the supply side and weakening demand due to seasonality. There is room for valuation to rise after the Spring Festival, and look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the inventory - accumulation cycle at ports will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under new - plant commissioning pressure. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term due to the tense situation in Iran and cold wave expectations. [30] 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 5.30 yuan/barrel, or 1.20%, to 446.40 yuan/barrel. Related refined product futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 48.00 yuan/ton, or 1.89%, to 2592.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 51.00 yuan/ton, or 1.65%, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see currently. [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 5 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 45.00 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 1 yuan. [3] - **Strategy**: Buy on dips as the valuation is low and the outlook is improving. [3] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 3 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton. [5] - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals. [6] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded with a volatile pattern. The long - side reasons include limited production growth in Southeast Asian rubber forests, a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side reasons are uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 million tons, a 1.9% increase. Spot prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14700 (+100) yuan, STR20 was 1885 (+15) dollars, etc. [8][9][10] - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 106 yuan to 4849 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4570 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 36) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 43.9%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory was 31.1 million tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 million tons (+3). [13] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies mid - term before significant industry production cuts. [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the active contract closing price was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 240 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7600 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the active contract closing price was 7694 yuan/ton, up 386 yuan/ton; the basis was - 94 yuan/ton, weakening by 136 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%; the Jiangsu port inventory was 9.35 million tons, a reduction of 0.71 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 41.91%, up 1.02%. [16] - **Strategy**: Gradually take profits as the non - integrated profit of styrene has significantly recovered. [17] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton; the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, weakening by 83 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. The production enterprise inventory was 35.03 million tons, a reduction of 4.51 million tons; the trader inventory was 2.92 million tons, unchanged. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, narrowing by 3 yuan/ton. [19] - **Strategy**: The price has support from reduced coal - based inventory and OPEC+ production suspension, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6624 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, weakening by 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The production enterprise inventory was 43.1 million tons, a reduction of 3.67 million tons; the trader inventory was 19.39 million tons, a reduction of 1.08 million tons; the port inventory was 7.06 million tons, a reduction of 0.05 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02%. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton. [21][22] - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 184 yuan to 7390 yuan; PX CFR rose 19 dollars to 907 dollars. The basis was - 70 yuan (- 30), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 78 yuan (- 4). The Chinese PX load was 88.9%, down 0.5%; the Asian load was 81%, up 0.4%. In January, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 6.8 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a monthly increase of 6 million tons. [25] - **Strategy**: Look for mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival. [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 144 yuan to 5298 yuan; the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5155 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 34 yuan (- 10). The PTA load was 76.6%, up 0.3%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons. The spot processing fee was 353 yuan, down 31 yuan; the futures processing fee was 450 yuan, up 23 yuan. [27] - **Strategy**: Expect inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. Look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 158 yuan to 3847 yuan; the East China spot price rose 90 yuan to 3660 yuan. The basis was - 109 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 103 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol load was 73%, down 1.4%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 million tons, and the East China port departure on January 21 was 0.76 million tons. The port inventory was 79.5 million tons, a reduction of 0.7 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1059 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 862 yuan, and the coal - based profit was - 5 yuan. [29] - **Strategy**: Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term and expect further valuation compression mid - term without significant production cuts. [30]