1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of soda ash and float glass are currently at historically low levels, with high risks associated with short - selling. Given strong macro - expectations and the "anti - involution" backdrop, the price centers of soda ash and glass are expected to gradually rise. It is not advisable to chase short positions at low prices. Instead, one can wait for long - entry opportunities when prices break upwards [14][84]. - For soda ash, although production and inventory remain high and demand recovery is slow, increasing exports may support prices. For glass, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand is slow, and high production and inventory levels continue to exert pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the peak - season data during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [14][84]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Report 3.1.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 2, 2025, the spot market price of soda ash was 1167 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous week and 79 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The futures price of the main contract (SA509) closed at 1267 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton from the previous week but up 11 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The basis was - 100 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was - 7.89%, at a relatively low - neutral level in historical statistics [13][19]. - **Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1268 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 0.1 yuan/ton; the production cost of the combined - soda process was 1651 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 20 yuan/ton. As the proportion of the natural - soda process increases, the overall cost support for soda ash may be limited [13][30]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 71.91 tons, a decrease of 5.23 tons from the previous week. The monthly production in August was 331.87 tons, an increase of 15.45 tons from the previous month. Production is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [13][44]. - **Demand**: In August, the start - up rate and production of float glass increased, driving short - term soda ash demand. However, the increase in float - glass inventory at the end of August may have a negative feedback effect on soda ash demand. The operating daily capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, and the inventory pressure was low. If the start - up rate and capacity increase in the future, it will drive up soda ash demand [13][58]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 186.75 tons, an increase of 7.17 tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [13][69]. - **Import - export**: In July 2025, soda ash imports were 0.32 tons, exports were 16.12 tons, and net exports were 15.80 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from the previous month. With the current low prices, export volumes are expected to continue to rise, supporting prices [13][64]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Soda Ash Basis**: As of September 2, 2025, the basis was - 100 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was - 7.89%, at a relatively low - neutral level in historical statistics [19]. - **Difference between Dense and Light Soda Ash**: As of September 2, 2025, the price difference between dense and light soda ash in North China was 100 yuan/ton, and in East China was 120 yuan/ton, showing little change and remaining within a reasonable range [22]. - **Soda Ash Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 2, 2025, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of soda ash futures was - 80 yuan/ton. Although the short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve rapidly, there are expectations of price increases in the future [25]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Soda Ash Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production cost of the ammonia - soda process was 1268 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 0.1 yuan/ton; the production cost of the combined - soda process was 1651 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 20 yuan/ton. As the proportion of the natural - soda process increases, the overall cost support for soda ash may be limited [30][33]. - **Raw Material Costs**: As of September 2, 2025, the price of raw salt in Northwest China remained unchanged from the previous week, and the price of动力煤 changed little, with a slight decline in some areas. The price of synthetic ammonia changed little from the previous week and remained at a relatively low level year - on - year. These factors have little impact on soda ash prices [36][39]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Total Production**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of soda ash was 71.91 tons, a decrease of 5.23 tons from the previous week. The monthly production in August was 331.87 tons, an increase of 15.45 tons from the previous month. Production is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [44]. - **Production of Dense and Light Soda Ash**: As of August 29, 2025, the production of dense soda ash was 38.32 tons, a decrease of 4.2 tons from the previous week, and the production of light soda ash was 33.59 tons, a decrease of 1.03 tons from the previous week. With fewer maintenance plans in September, production is expected to remain high [47]. - **Soda Ash Start - up Rate**: The start - up rate of soda ash in August first increased and then decreased. With fewer planned maintenance enterprises in September, the start - up rate is expected to remain at the current level [50]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: The increase in float - glass production drove short - term soda ash demand, but the increase in float - glass inventory may have a negative impact. The operating daily capacity of photovoltaic glass increased, and if the start - up rate and capacity increase in the future, it will drive up soda ash demand [58][61]. - **Soda Ash Import - export**: In July 2025, soda ash imports were 0.32 tons, exports were 16.12 tons, and net exports were 15.80 tons, an increase of 0.25 tons from the previous month. With the current low prices, export volumes are expected to continue to rise, supporting prices [64]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of soda ash was 186.75 tons, an increase of 7.17 tons from the beginning of the month. The inventory is expected to remain high in the short term, pressuring prices [69]. 3.2 Glass Report 3.2.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: As of September 2, 2025, the spot market price of float glass was 1130 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous week and 115 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The futures price of the main contract (SA509) closed at 1134 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from the previous week but up 33 yuan/ton from the beginning of the previous month. The basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was + 2.73%, at a neutral level in historical statistics [83][89]. - **Cost - profit**: As of August 29, 2025, the production costs of float glass using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels were 995 yuan/ton, 1039 yuan/ton, and 1398 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits were 109.46 yuan/ton, 25.66 yuan/ton, and - 188.41 yuan/ton respectively, providing some support for glass - futures prices [83][97]. - **Supply**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of float glass was 111.70 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the beginning of the month. The start - up rate was 75.49%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the beginning of the month. With some production lines planning to start up next month, production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [83][108]. - **Demand**: As of August 29, 2025, the start - up rate of Low - e glass was 48.10%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points from the beginning of the month. As of September 1, 2025, the downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.4 days, an increase of 0.85 days from the beginning of the previous month, indicating a slight recovery in demand. However, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand was slow, dragging down glass prices in the short term. Attention should be paid to the peak - season data during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [83][113]. - **Inventory**: As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of float glass in China was 6256.6 million weight - cases, an increase of 306.7 million weight - cases from the beginning of the month. The inventory in the Shahe area also increased. With high production levels, inventory is expected to continue to pressure prices [83][126]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Glass Basis**: As of September 2, 2025, the basis was - 4 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the basis rate was + 2.73%, at a neutral level in historical statistics [89]. - **Glass Inter - monthly Spread**: As of September 2, 2025, the spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of glass futures was - 99 yuan/ton. Although the short - term fundamentals are difficult to improve rapidly, there are expectations of price increases in the future [92]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - As of August 29, 2025, the production costs of float glass using coal, petroleum coke, and natural gas as fuels were 995 yuan/ton, 1039 yuan/ton, and 1398 yuan/ton respectively, and the profits were 109.46 yuan/ton, 25.66 yuan/ton, and - 188.41 yuan/ton respectively, providing some support for glass - futures prices [97]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Glass Production and Start - up Rate**: As of August 29, 2025, the weekly production of float glass was 111.70 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the beginning of the month. The start - up rate was 75.49%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points from the beginning of the month. With some production lines planning to start up next month, production is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [108]. - **Glass Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass increased slightly, indicating a slight recovery in demand. However, the improvement in real - estate terminal demand was slow, dragging down glass prices in the short term. The real - estate transaction volume improved slightly but remained relatively low compared to historical levels [113][119]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the in - factory inventory of float glass in China was 6256.6 million weight - cases, an increase of 306.7 million weight - cases from the beginning of the month. The inventory in the Shahe area also increased. With high production levels, inventory is expected to continue to pressure prices [126].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report maintains a medium - term bullish view on rubber prices. Future 3 - 14 days see an increased risk of heavy rain and flash floods in Thailand, which is positive for supply [10][11][12]. - The current environment and commodity prices are similar to those during the 2016 commodity rally. The significant decline in rubber prices has curbed supply, and the market is currently in a bottom - building phase. It is advisable to go long when the opportunity arises [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips. Attention should be paid to the spread trading strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, gradually closing positions and conducting band operations [11][16][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Medium - term bullish on rubber prices due to increased flood risks in Thailand, which affect supply. Short - term, prices are volatile and tend to rise. One can go long on dips [10][11][12]. - Key factors to watch include the overall sentiment of industrial products, domestic demand policies, the progress of downstream inventory accumulation, and whether Thailand's supply is affected by typhoons and floods [11][16]. - The recommended trading strategy is to go long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1, an indefinite period, and a high recommendation level [22]. 3.2 Cost - end - The general market view is that the cost of cup - lump rubber in Thailand is 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex rubber in China is around 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex rubber is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan [55]. - Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic. High rubber prices lead to high maintenance enthusiasm and costs for rubber farmers, while low prices result in the opposite [55]. 3.3 Periodic and Spot Market - Rubber shows consistent seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [29][33]. - The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020 [36]. 3.4 Profit and Ratio - Most of the ratio data are normal, without special or noteworthy values. Black and rubber varieties generally move in a similar rhythm, indicating similar market expectations for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 3.5 Demand - end - The overall tire factory full - steel tire operating rate is 59.78% (-4.06%). Full - steel tire exports are good, while semi - steel tire inventory consumption is slow [16]. - The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming, but the future is expected to decline slightly [64][67]. 3.6 Supply - end - Supply is generally normal, without special or noteworthy values. In July 2025, rubber production was 1,014.5 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.95% and a month - on - month increase of 6.19% [72][102]. - New production capacity of butadiene is expected to be put into operation in 2025, with a total increase of 113 tons, a 16% increase compared to 2024. This is expected to increase butadiene supply and decrease processing profits [20].

01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 需求端 反弹抛空 鸡蛋月报 2025/09/05 028-86133280 wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 王 俊 （农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 02 期现市场 05 成本和利润 03 供应端 06 库存端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 现货端：8月至今国内蛋价以高位回落后震荡为主，整体表现弱于预期，月末受开学等备货因素提振小幅走高，月内新开产和存栏仍处增势， 补栏量明显减少，老鸡淘汰有所增多，鸡龄下降至495天；具体看，黑山大码蛋价月涨0.5元至3.3元/斤，月内最低2.6元/斤，馆陶月持平于 3元/斤，月内最低2.6元/斤，销区回龙观周涨0.29元至3.5元/斤，东莞月涨0.17元至3.15元/斤；9月上旬受备货预期支撑，供需关系或略有 收紧，蛋价仍有上涨预期，但供应偏大叠加冷库蛋出库压力，蛋价涨幅或有限，中旬以后各环节备货结束，市场供需矛盾扩大，蛋价以回落 为主。 ◆ 补栏和淘汰：受蛋价持续低迷和养殖亏损影响，8月份全国补栏量继续下降至7962万只，环比-0.4%，同比-9.4%；8月份 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August 2025, the average profitability rate of steel mills continued to rise, but the long - process profit of rebar in East China decreased, and the EAF profit remained weak. The supply of rebar increased slightly, while the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The demand for hot - rolled coils was also weak, and although the output decreased slightly, the inventory also increased significantly [11]. - The statement by Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting in August released a signal that the world's major economies may enter an interest - rate easing cycle, which helps boost the sentiment of steel and metal prices in the short term and raises the market's expectation for subsequent domestic demand recovery. However, the current demand has not shown signs of transitioning to the peak season, and the overall demand structure remains weak. After the September 3rd military parade, steel mills have resumed production, and if demand does not improve synchronously, the risk of significant steel inventory accumulation will increase [11]. - The overall steel export performance is weak, with a significant increase in exports to Asia, Africa, and Latin America, while other major regions remain sluggish [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: In August 2025, the average profitability rate of steel mills was 65.9%. The long - process profit of rebar in East China shrank to 57 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was about - 18 yuan/ton. The long - process profit declined significantly, and the EAF profit remained weak [11]. - **Supply**: In August 2025, the rebar output was 10.879 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.3238 million tons; the hot - rolled coil output was 16.0325 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5955 million tons. The daily average pig iron output remained at 2.4051 million tons. The output of blast furnaces and EAFs increased slightly, and the supply pressure of rebar further increased. The hot - rolled coil output decreased slightly month - on - month, and the supply pressure was relieved [11]. - **Demand**: In August 2025, the apparent consumption of rebar was 10.0315 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.169 million tons. The rebar demand remained weak and showed no signs of stabilization approaching the traditional peak season. The apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 15.8295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.509 million tons. The hot - rolled coil demand fluctuated, showing a neutral - to - weak performance. Affected by the continuous decline in exports and the weakening of terminal industries such as home appliances, although the demand has certain resilience, it lacks bright spots [11]. - **Inventory**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coils have seen inventory accumulation. Currently, the steel mill output is relatively high, and the demand is insufficient. Rebar has accumulated inventory for six consecutive weeks, and hot - rolled coils for seven consecutive weeks, with significant inventory pressure [11]. - **Conclusion**: Macroscopically, the signal of a possible interest - rate easing cycle boosts the sentiment of steel and metal prices in the short term. Fundamentally, the demand for rebar and plates in August was weak, and inventory accumulated rapidly. As the traditional peak season approaches, if demand does not improve synchronously, the risk of significant steel inventory accumulation will increase. Attention should be paid to export progress, the implementation of production - restriction policies, and macro - level trends such as the September interest - rate meeting and the Fourth Plenary Session [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The report presents a series of charts related to the futures and spot prices, price differences, and basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, cold - rolled coils, and other steel products, as well as the price differences between different regions and different contracts, providing a comprehensive picture of the steel futures and spot market price trends [25][27][30]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Profit**: The report shows the disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the gross profit per ton of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils, reflecting the profit situation of different steel products [79][81]. - **Inventory**: It presents the inventory data of rebar and hot - rolled coils, including total inventory, social inventory, and steel mill inventory, indicating the current inventory pressure in the steel market [90][103]. 3.4 Cost End The report includes charts on the cost - related indicators of steel, such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore futures, the ratio of rebar to coke futures, the price of billets, scrap steel prices, and scrap steel consumption, which help analyze the cost structure of steel production [109][115][121]. 3.5 Supply End - **Rebar**: It shows the output, output cumulative year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate of rebar, reflecting the supply situation of rebar [131][133]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: It presents the actual output, output cumulative year - on - year growth rate, and capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils, showing the supply situation of hot - rolled coils [137][139]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - **Domestic Demand**: The report shows the apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year growth rate of rebar and hot - rolled coils, as well as the production and export volume of home appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners, reflecting the domestic demand for steel [143][146][147]. - **Import - Export**: It presents the monthly import and export volume of steel, rebar, and plates, indicating the import - export situation of the steel industry [159][161][164].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The expected monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will cause the price performance of platinum, which has stronger financial attributes, to outperform palladium. The speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting set the tone for an interest - rate cut in the September policy meeting. Considering the weakening of the US labor market and the Fed's stance, there may be more than three interest - rate cuts in the remaining policy meetings of this year. In this context, platinum prices are expected to continue to perform better than palladium, and the strategy suggests buying platinum on dips [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Platinum Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract rose 2.85% to $1380.6 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume increased 69.15%, the open interest of the main contract rose 0.86%, the NYMEX platinum inventory increased 1.35%, the CFTC managed - fund net long position increased by 2504 lots, the CFTC commercial net short position increased by 1080 lots, and the platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.22% [9]. - **Palladium Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract rose 1.15% to $1141.5 per ounce, the five - day average trading volume decreased 2.60%, the open interest of the main contract rose 3.25%, the inventory increased 4.72%, the CFTC managed - fund net short position increased by 759 lots, the CFTC commercial net short position decreased by 92 lots, and the palladium ETF holdings increased 2.22% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The NYMEX platinum main - contract price has support near the ascending - trend baseline and has room for further rebound. The NYMEX palladium main - contract price has stabilized at around $1100 per ounce but is expected to face significant resistance when rebounding to $1255 per ounce [13][16]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The NYMEX platinum main - contract price rose 2.85% to $1380.6 per ounce, and the open interest decreased by 580 lots to 85575 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price rose 5.75% to 332.65 yuan/gram as of September 4. The one - month implied lease rate of platinum dropped to 15.23%, indicating a significant relief in the overseas spot shortage. The NYMEX platinum managed - fund net long position increased by 2504 lots to 14731 lots as of August 26 [21][27][31]. - **Palladium Price**: The NYMEX palladium main - contract price fell 6.66% to $1141.5 per ounce, and the open interest decreased by 1590 lots to 18920 lots. The NYMEX palladium managed - fund net short position was 6614 lots as of August 26 [24][37]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: The total platinum ETF holdings were 74.25 tons as of September 4. The CME platinum inventory increased by 0.22 tons to 16.49 tons this week [48][55]. - **Palladium**: The total palladium ETF holdings were 13.5 tons as of September 4. The CME palladium inventory was 4346.17 kilograms as of September 4, an increase of 2401.25 kilograms this week [51][60]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The total platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease from 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply this year [66]. - **Palladium Supply**: The total palladium production of the top 15 mines in 2025 is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease from 2024, showing a slight contraction in mine - end supply [69]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in July were 7.57 tons, a decline from June, while palladium imports in July were 3.24 tons, an increase from June [72][75]. - **Automobile Production**: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are presented, but no specific conclusions about supply - demand relationships are drawn from these data in the text [76][79][82]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum market is expected to have a supply - demand deficit of 14.29 tons in 2025, and the global palladium market is expected to have a supply - demand surplus of 3.50 tons in 2025 [86][87]. 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Relevant spread data charts are presented, but no specific numerical analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [90]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Relevant spread data charts are presented, but no specific numerical analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [98]. - **London Spot and NYMEX Spread**: Charts of the spread between London spot platinum and NYMEX platinum, and London spot palladium and NYMEX palladium are presented, but no specific numerical analysis or conclusions are provided in the text [105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining a "buy on dips" approach for the precious metals sector, with a focus on the upward potential of silver prices [11]. Core Viewpoints - Influenced by the Fed's monetary policy expectations and potential tariff risks from the Trump administration, precious metal prices showed strong performance this month. COMEX gold and silver prices outperformed domestic prices. The Fed is likely to adopt a dovish monetary policy stance in the September FOMC meeting and cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Silver prices are expected to have stronger upward momentum compared to gold as the Fed's monetary policy turns accommodative [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Monthly Summary**: Affected by the Fed's monetary policy expectations and potential tariff risks from the Trump administration, precious metal prices were strong this month. COMEX gold prices rose 5.38% to $3,602.4 per ounce, hitting a new record high. COMEX silver prices broke through the $40 per ounce mark, rising 10.51% to $41.32 per ounce. Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole meeting signaled the start of a new interest - rate cut cycle. Trump's team's actions have undermined the Fed's independence, and the Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in September [11]. - **Market Outlook**: As the Fed's monetary policy becomes more accommodative, silver prices will have stronger upward drivers than gold. The current gold - to - silver ratio is 87, significantly higher than the historical average of 62.1 since 1971. The market has almost fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and a 55% probability of a further 25 - basis - point cut in October. The Fed may cut rates more than the market expects in the remaining FOMC meetings this year. The recommended trading range for the SHFE gold main contract is 801 - 840 yuan per gram, and for the SHFE silver main contract is 9,526 - 11,000 yuan per kilogram [11]. 2. Market Review - **Price Performance**: As of September 4, COMEX gold prices rose 5.38% to $3,602.4 per ounce, and SHFE gold prices rose 3.56% to 812.98 yuan per gram. COMEX silver prices rose 10.51% to $41.32 per ounce, and SHFE silver main contract prices rose 5.56% to 9,773 yuan per kilogram [11][29]. - **Position and Volume**: Domestic gold positions performed better than foreign ones this month. SHFE gold total positions increased by 0.44% to 439,900 lots, while COMEX gold total positions decreased by 0.34% to 443,800 lots. Domestic silver positions also outperformed foreign ones. SHFE silver total positions increased by 5.42% to 838,100 lots, while COMEX silver total positions decreased by 6.87% to 158,600 lots. As of the latest report date, COMEX gold and silver managed - fund net positions both increased [32][35][37]. - **ETF Holdings**: The total holdings of gold ETFs within the Reuters statistical scope reached 2,224.4 tons as of September 4, and the total holdings of foreign silver ETFs were 27,665.94 tons. The total holdings of gold and silver ETFs continued to rise [40]. 3. Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Interest Rates and Inflation Expectations**: The report presents various interest - rate charts, including the spread between 10 - year and 2 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, short - term Treasury yields, the federal funds rate, and inflation expectations [51][54]. - **Fed's Balance Sheet**: The Fed's total assets decreased by $38.772 billion this month. The Treasury's TGA account balance increased, the deposit reserve scale declined, and the U.S. dollar liquidity tightened [56][59]. 4. Macroeconomic Data - **CPI and PCE**: In July, the U.S. CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8% and in line with the previous value. The core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3% and the previous value of 2.9% [64]. - **Employment**: As of the week ending August 30, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. was 237,000, higher than the expected 230,000 and the previous value of 229,000 [67]. - **PMI and PPI**: In August, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, lower than the expected 49 and below the boom - bust line. The ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52, higher than the expected and previous value of 50.1 and above the boom - bust line [70]. - **New Housing Data**: In July, the annualized total of new housing starts in the U.S. was 1.428 million, significantly higher than the expected 1.29 million and the previous value of 1.358 million. The annualized total of building permits was 1.354 million, lower than the expected 1.386 million and the previous value of 1.393 million [73]. 5. Precious Metal Spreads - **Gold Basis**: The foreign gold basis (London spot gold - COMEX gold) increased, while the domestic gold basis (AuT + D - SHFE gold) decreased [12]. - **Silver Basis**: The foreign silver basis (London spot silver - COMEX silver) decreased, while the domestic silver basis (AgT + D - SHFE silver) increased [12]. 6. Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The report shows various silver inventory charts, including the combined inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX, as well as the inventories of SHFE, SGE, COMEX, and LBMA [90][92]. - **Gold Inventories**: The report presents charts of COMEX and LBMA gold inventories [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory levels. The overall industry pattern is deteriorating, facing double pressure from significant capacity growth and continuous decline in real - estate demand. In the short term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, but it is necessary to guard against the return of anti - internal competition sentiment. In the medium term, without policies to clear out outdated production capacity, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry may need to reduce valuations to clear out excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton month - on - month. Chlor - alkali integrated profit remains high, while ethylene - based profit declines, and overall valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 77.1%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Among them, calcium carbide method is 76.7%, up 0.7% month - on - month; ethylene method is 78.1%, down 0.9% month - on - month. Last month, maintenance volume decreased, and new device production was released, increasing supply pressure. This month, maintenance is expected to further decrease, and there are new device commissioning plans, so supply pressure will still be large [11]. - **Demand**: In July, exports to India rebounded due to the extension of BIS certification and anti - dumping. However, the final anti - dumping tax rate for India has been announced and is expected to be implemented in about a month, which will likely lead to a decline in exports. The overall downstream load is 43.5%, up 1.5% month - on - month, but still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of the month, factory inventory is 31.6 tons, with a month - on - month de - stocking of 3 tons; social inventory is 91.8 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 19.6 tons; overall inventory is 123.4 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 16.6 tons; warehouse receipts continue to increase. Currently in the inventory build - up cycle, if exports do not exceed expectations, inventory build - up will continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The document mainly presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including PVC term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided [15][16][23]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Overall inventory has significantly increased. Factory inventory and social inventory trends are shown through charts, and the overall inventory is in a build - up state [31][37]. - **Profit**: Chlor - alkali integrated profit in Shandong using purchased calcium carbide, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit trends are presented through charts, showing that the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a high level this year, with relatively large valuation pressure [41]. 3.4 Cost Side Calcium carbide prices are fluctuating and rising, and inventory is increasing. The document also presents price trends of raw materials such as Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [47][48][50]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity release of PVC is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons of new capacity is expected to be put into production, including multiple projects using calcium carbide method and ethylene method [58][65]. - In August, PVC maintenance was relatively less, and the operating rate in September is expected to remain high. The operating rates of calcium carbide method, ethylene method, and overall PVC are presented through charts [66]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of downstream industries such as PVC pipes, films, and profiles are presented through charts, showing that the overall downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded but is still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak [75]. - PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the relationship between China's housing completion area and new construction area are presented through charts. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations. After the implementation of India's anti - dumping tax rate, export expectations are expected to weaken [77][80][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The trading focus of the black sector in the near future (before mid - October) will be on the verification of real - end demand. There is a risk of a phased downward correction in demand, and peak - season demand may not match the current high supply, which will put pressure on prices and suppress the overall price of the black sector [15][96]. - The "anti - involution" in the commodities market is more of a rebound due to emotional fluctuations after prices have fallen to a phased low. Whether it can develop a second - stage market similar to the supply - side structural reform depends on the actual implementation and effects of the "anti - involution" policy [15][96]. - Both manganese silicon and silicon iron are likely to follow the sentiment of the black sector, especially the situation of coking coal, and their operability is relatively low [15][96]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Manganese Silicon 3.1.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was 5600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week and 300 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5730 yuan/ton, down 62 yuan/ton from last week and 306 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The basis was 60 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 1.04%, at a neutral level [14][20]. - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low. In Inner Mongolia, it was - 350 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from last week and 13 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Ningxia, - 490 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton from last week and 173 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Guangxi, - 681 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton from last week and 150 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [14][25]. - **Cost**: The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 6030 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last week and 27 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Ningxia, 5990 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton from last week and 27 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; in Guangxi, 6361 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from last week and up 30 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month [14][30]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of manganese silicon was 21.28 tons, down 0.06 tons from last week. The cumulative weekly output decreased by about 2.68% compared with the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 90.93 tons, up 8.96 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to August decreased by 26.28 tons or 3.82% year - on - year [14][44]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 218.68 tons, down 1.88 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of about 0.43%. The daily average pig iron output was 228.84 tons, down 11.29 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44% [14][58]. - **Inventory**: The estimated explicit inventory of manganese silicon was 48.69 tons, down 0.82 tons from last week, continuing to decline but still at a high level compared with the same period [14][69]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton and the support level around 5600 yuan/ton [15][78]. 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot was 5600 yuan/ton, the futures main contract (SM601) closed at 5730 yuan/ton, the basis was 60 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 1.04%, at a neutral level [20]. 3.1.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi all decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [25]. - **Cost**: The prices of manganese ore and some raw materials changed. The estimated immediate cost of manganese silicon in main production areas had different changes [27][30]. 3.1.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly and monthly output of manganese silicon had different trends, with a year - on - year decrease in cumulative output from January to August [44]. - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar decreased, and the daily average pig iron output decreased compared with last week but increased year - on - year. The steel mill's profitability decreased by 2.6 pct to 61.04% [58][61][62]. 3.1.5 Inventory - The explicit inventory of manganese silicon continued to decline, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises increased, and the average available days of steel mill inventory increased slightly but were still at a low historical level [69][72][75]. 3.1.6 Graphical Trend - In August, the manganese silicon futures price first rebounded and then declined. Last week, it rebounded after reaching the support level. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [78]. 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price**: Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot was 5650 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week and 250 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month; the futures main contract (SF511) closed at 5496 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from last week and 338 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month. The basis was 154 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from last week, with a basis rate of 2.73%, at a relatively high level [95][101]. - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai all decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [95][106]. - **Cost**: The estimated production cost in main production areas was basically stable compared with last week [95][112]. - **Supply**: The weekly output of silicon iron was 11.5 tons, up 0.19 tons from last week. The cumulative weekly output increased by about 1.22% compared with the same period last year. In August 2025, the output was 49.33 tons, up 4.66 tons from the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to August increased by 2.8 tons or 0.78% year - on - year [95][117]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output was 228.84 tons, down 11.29 tons from last week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of about 3.44%. The cumulative output of metallic magnesium from January to August decreased by 3.31 tons or 5.73% year - on - year. The cumulative export of silicon iron from January to July decreased by 1.22 tons or 4.93% year - on - year [95][126][129]. - **Inventory**: The estimated explicit inventory of silicon iron was 16.78 tons, down 0.16 tons from last week, remaining at a high level compared with the same period [95][140]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and the support levels of 5400 - 5450 yuan/ton [96][149]. 3.2.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tianjin 72 silicon iron spot was 5650 yuan/ton, the futures main contract (SF511) closed at 5496 yuan/ton, the basis was 154 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.73%, at a relatively high level [101]. 3.2.3 Profit and Cost - **Profit**: The estimated immediate profit of silicon iron in main production areas decreased compared with last week and the beginning of last month [106]. - **Cost**: The prices of some raw materials were stable, and the estimated production cost in main production areas was basically stable compared with last week [109][112]. 3.2.4 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The weekly and monthly output of silicon iron increased, with a year - on - year increase in cumulative output from January to August [117]. - **Demand**: The demand from the steel and non - steel sectors had different trends. The daily average pig iron output decreased compared with last week but increased year - on - year. The output of metallic magnesium and silicon iron exports decreased year - on - year [126][129][132]. 3.2.5 Inventory - The explicit inventory of silicon iron continued to decline, and the average available days of steel mill inventory increased slightly but were still at a low level compared with the same period [140][143]. 3.2.6 Graphical Trend - In August, the silicon iron futures price first rebounded and then declined. Last week, it rebounded after reaching the support level. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [149].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The theoretical and planned slaughter volume is large, and the supply in September remains bearish. However, potential supporting factors such as consumption, weight gain, and state purchases are also accumulating. Spot prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range, lacking the basis for significant increases or decreases. - The market has already priced in the reality of an oversupply of pigs. The futures market, especially the near - term contracts, has been falling and is at a discount to the spot market. Over - shorting is not cost - effective. The strategy should focus on potential low - level rebounds due to factors like consumption and short - selling opportunities after the rebound. The reverse spread strategy for far - term contracts continues [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Since August, domestic pig prices have mainly fluctuated downward with a small range. The planned monthly slaughter volume was high, slaughter volume was significantly large, the average weight of group - farmed pigs for sale continued to decline, the number of pigs sold by散户 increased, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs remained high. In September, the theoretical and planned slaughter volume remains high, but factors such as post - cooling pig retention, increased demand in cool weather, state purchases, and festivals may limit price drops. Pig prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize, with a slight decline overall [11][22]. - **Supply Side**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, a slight monthly decrease of 10,000, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a weaker fundamental situation in 2025 than in 2024. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, which may improve next year's supply. From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [11]. - **Demand Side**: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and short - sell contracts 11 and 01 after a rebound. For arbitrage, a 3 - 5 reverse spread is recommended with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 for a 2 - month period, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the fat - standard price difference [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Since August, domestic pig prices have fluctuated downward. In September, prices are expected to fall first and then stabilize with a slight decline [22]. - **Basis and Spread Trend**: The futures market has priced in the pessimistic outlook in advance, and the basis and monthly spreads have fluctuated within a narrow range [25]. 3. Supply Side - **Reproductive Sows**: In July, the official sow inventory was 40.42 million, slightly down from the previous month, still 3.6% higher than the normal level. There is a strong expectation of policy - driven capacity reduction, but more evidence is needed to determine if capacity reduction is effective [33]. - **Inventory and Slaughter**: From the piglet data, the basic supply from September to November will increase significantly, but the continuous weight reduction by group farms from June to August has advanced some supply, which may partially offset the supply pressure. Recently, the slaughter volume has been increasing month - on - month, and the weight of large - scale farms has been decreasing [42][49]. - **Import and Pig Feed**: No specific analysis conclusions are provided in the text, only relevant data charts are presented [50]. 4. Demand Side - **Slaughter Volume and Related Indicators**: The start of school in early September, temperature drops in the middle and late September, and stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day may lead to marginal improvement in demand. However, demand will enter a slump after the National Day until the temperature drops and the Spring Festival approaches [58]. 5. Cost and Profit - **Cost and Breeding Profit**: Due to factors such as feed cost and efficiency improvement, the cost has been continuously declining. Despite the weak pig prices compared to the same period in previous years, large - scale losses have not occurred because of the low cost [69]. 6. Inventory Side - **Frozen Product Inventory**: The frozen product inventory is slowly increasing [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the lead industry showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. Upstream lead concentrates and waste lead - acid batteries were relatively scarce, limiting the smelting capacity of primary and secondary smelters. The continuous losses in secondary lead production led to production cuts in Anhui and other regions. However, downstream consumption was weaker than in previous years, with some battery enterprises reducing production during the high - temperature holidays and dealers having high finished - product inventories, resulting in a lackluster peak season. - Currently, there is a high expectation of a Fed rate cut, creating a positive atmosphere in the non - ferrous metals sector. The marginal narrowing of lead ingot supply provides some support at the lower end. But if the commodity sentiment weakens and secondary smelting resumes, lead prices still have significant downward potential. [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Price Review**: In August, the weighted Shanghai lead futures oscillated upwards, closing up 1.02% at 16,885 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 28% to 81,900 lots. The LME 3M lead oscillated upwards, closing up 1.37% at $1,997/ton, with positions increasing by 11% to 161,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 16,725 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,700 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories decreased slightly to 65,300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 55,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 254,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 59,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.09/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $66.9/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.187, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 469.15 yuan/ton. - **Industry Data**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 38,000 tons, the factory inventory was 403,000 tons, equivalent to 25.5 days. The lead concentrate import TC was - $90/dry ton, and the domestic lead concentrate TC was 400 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting start - up rate was 68.33%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 16,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 77,000 tons, the weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 31,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. On the demand side, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.59%. [11] 3.2 Primary Supply - **Imports and Production**: In July 2025, the net import of lead concentrates was 122,300 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.8% and a month - on - month change of 3.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 790,000 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 35.5%. The net import of silver concentrates in July was 154,200 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 14.0% and a month - on - month change of 22.3%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 1.003 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.4%. In July, China's lead concentrate production was 154,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 3.69% and a month - on - month change of 0.98%. From January to July, the total production of lead concentrates was 941,600 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 11.41%. The net import of lead - containing ores in July was 135,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 20.6% and a month - on - month change of 11.5%. From January to July, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 875,200 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 19.2%. - **Total Supply**: In July 2025, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 289,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 10.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.6%. From January to July, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 1.8168 million metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 15.0%. In June 2025, the global lead ore production was 395,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 4.1%. From January to June, the total global lead ore production was 2.2565 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.6%. - **Inventory**: At the primary end, the lead concentrate port inventory was 38,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 403,000 tons, equivalent to 25.5 days. - **Smelting**: The primary smelting start - up rate was 68.33%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 16,000 tons. In July 2025, China's primary lead production was 321,700 tons, a year - on - year change of 4.79% and a month - on - month change of - 2.1%. From January to July, the total production of primary lead ingots was 2.2064 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.51%. [15][17][19] 3.3 Secondary Supply - **Raw Materials and Production**: At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 77,000 tons. The weekly production of secondary lead ingots was 31,000 tons, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 18,000 tons. In July 2025, China's secondary lead production was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year change of 3.11% and a month - on - month change of 10.92%. From January to July, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 2.2516 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.37%. - **Imports and Total Supply**: In July 2025, the net export of lead ingots was - 12,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 58.1% and a month - on - month change of 75.7%. From January to July, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 56,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.5%. In July, the total domestic lead ingot supply was 654,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.4% and a month - on - month change of 5.1%. From January to July, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply was 4.5165 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. [31][33][35] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Battery Demand**: On the demand side, the lead - acid battery start - up rate was 70.59%. In July 2025, the apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 651,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 4.3%. From January to July, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for lead ingots was 4.4784 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. - **Battery Exports**: In July 2025, the net export volume of batteries was 20.8925 million units, and the net export weight was 106,600 tons. The estimated net export of lead in batteries was 66,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 4.8% and a month - on - month change of 7.4%. From January to July, the total net export of lead in batteries was 432,900 tons, and the cumulative net export of lead in batteries decreased by 3.3% year - on - year. - **Inventory**: In July 2025, the finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries in factories decreased from 26 days to 21.8 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers increased from 39.9 days to 44.6 days. - **Terminal Demand**: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production directly affected new - installation demand, the continuous growth in delivery scenarios such as express delivery and takeout improved the new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles are gradually replacing lead - acid start - up batteries with lithium - iron - phosphate start - up batteries, the high existing vehicle inventory and high replacement demand for lead - acid start - up batteries in existing vehicles support domestic lead ingot consumption. In the base - station sector, the increasing number of communication base stations and 5G base stations driven by the development of communication technology has steadily increased the demand for lead - acid batteries. [40][43][45] 3.5 Supply - Demand Inventory - **Domestic Balance**: In July 2025, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,400 tons. From January to July, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 38,100 tons. - **Overseas Balance**: In June 2025, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a surplus of 2,000 tons. From January to June, the cumulative overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of - 35,900 tons. [63][66] 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: According to Steel Union data, domestic social inventories decreased slightly to 65,300 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 55,000 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 70 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 55 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME lead ingot inventory was 254,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 59,200 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - $43.09/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - $66.9/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London ratio was 1.187, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was - 469.15 yuan/ton. - **Position Analysis**: The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead decreased marginally. The investment funds in LME lead became net short, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased. The position analysis provides a neutral indication. [71][74][80]