ijis 加安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/8/12 | | | 指标 | 7/10 | 8/4 | 8/7 | 8/8 | 8/11 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11615 | 11395 | 11535 | 11515 | 11785 | 270 | 390 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 27306 | 31806 | 26456 | 25625 | 28088 | 2463 | -3718 | | | 居面 | 主力合约成交量 | 103683 | 55081 | 60111 | 41370 | 138315 | 96945 | 83234 | | | | 仓単数量 | 8600 | 10540 | 10310 | 10310 | 10470 | 160 | -70 | | | | 虚实比 | 15.88 | 15.09 | 12.83 | 12.43 | 13.41 | 1 | -2 | | | | 顺丁基差 | - ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 677.0 0.0 20.0 49.0 -173.0 25省终端可用天数 18.4 0.3 -1.5 -2.5 0.8 秦皇岛5000 615.0 0.0 23.0 52.0 -140.0 25省终端供煤 615.8 12.4 7.3 -24.2 -7.0 广州港5500 755.0 0.0 15.0 45.0 -160.0 北方港库存 2393.0 -21.0 -106.0 -272.0 -95.5 鄂尔多斯5500 475.0 10.0 20.0 65.0 -155.0 北方锚地船舶 75.0 3.0 20.0 -24.0 0.0 大同5500 550.0 0.0 25.0 80.0 -140.0 北方港调入量 156.4 10.8 4.7 17.7 22.2 榆林6000 592.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 -224.0 北方港吞吐量 156.2 -2.4 34.8 -10.7 36.0 榆林6200 620.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 -223.0 CBCFI海运指数 781.7 10.2 24.6 46. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View There is no explicit core view stated in the report. The data mainly presents the price trends of scrap steel in different regions, as well as the historical data of steel mills' scrap steel inventory, short - process daily consumption, scrap steel arrival, social inventory, screw - scrap price difference, and electric furnace thread profit. 3. Summary by Related Content Scrap Steel Price in Different Regions - The scrap steel prices in East China, Central China, Northeast China, South China, and Southwest China from August 5th to August 11th, 2025 are presented. For example, in East China, the price increased from 2229 on August 5th to 2248 on August 11th, with a month - on - month increase of 10. [1] Historical Price of Steel Mills' Products - The historical prices of Shagang's heavy - three products (tax - included) and Zhenjiang Hongtai's shear - cut materials (tax - excluded) from 2022 to 2025 are shown, with price fluctuations over the years. [1] Steel Mills' Scrap Steel Inventory - The report shows the historical data of steel mills' scrap steel inventory from 2022 to 2025, but no specific data values are detailed in the text. [4] Short - Process Daily Consumption - The short - process daily consumption data from 2022 to 2025 is presented, but no specific data values are detailed in the text. [6] Scrap Steel Arrival - The arrival data of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang and 147 steel mills from 2022 to 2025 are shown, but no specific data values are detailed in the text. [7][10] Scrap Steel Social Inventory - The scrap steel social inventory data from 2019 to 2025 is presented, but no specific data values are detailed in the text. [8] East China Screw - Scrap Price Difference and Jiangsu Electric Furnace Thread Profit - The historical data of East China's screw - scrap price difference and Jiangsu's electric furnace thread profit from 2022 to 2025 are shown, but no specific data values are detailed in the text. [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short - term, with reserve auctions and new - season corn approaching, the market supply increases slightly and prices weaken, but the downside is limited. In the long - term, potential import growth and new - season supply increase may pressure prices [3]. - Starch: In the short - term, it follows raw material price fluctuations, with high inventory and is expected to be weak. In the long - term, high inventory and lower raw material costs lead to a bearish outlook [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, Brazilian supply pressure affects prices, but there may be a rebound. Domestically, large imports will put pressure on the market [6]. - Cotton: It is in a consolidation phase, and if there are no major macro - risks, the downside is limited. Attention should be paid to demand changes [7]. - Eggs: After a price rebound and correction, demand may pick up in mid - August, but high inventory may limit the upside [9]. - Apples: New - season production may be similar to last year. Consumption is in the off - season, and prices are stable [12]. - Pigs: Spot prices rebounded slightly, but demand is not improved. There is medium - term supply pressure, and futures need spot verification [12]. 3. Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, corn prices in some regions changed slightly, with a maximum decrease of 8 yuan/ton in Weifang. Starch processing profit increased by 22 yuan [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Reserve auctions and new - season corn impact the corn market. Starch is affected by raw material prices and high inventory [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, sugar prices in major regions decreased, and import profit decreased significantly, with a maximum reduction of 77 yuan [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Brazilian supply and domestic imports influence the sugar market [6]. Cotton - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 40 yuan, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 128 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Cotton is in a waiting phase for demand verification, and the downside is limited under certain conditions [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, egg prices in major production areas increased, with a maximum increase of 0.22 yuan. The basis increased by 141 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Egg prices rebounded due to supply - demand factors, then corrected, and may rise again with upcoming festivals, but high inventory is a constraint [9]. Apples - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained stable, and the basis for different contracts changed significantly [11][12]. - **Market Analysis**: New - season apples are in the growth stage, and consumption is in the off - season [12]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From August 5 - 11, pig prices in some regions were stable or changed slightly, and the basis increased by 40 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Spot prices rebounded slightly, but demand is weak. There is medium - term supply pressure and policy expectations [12].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core View of the Report - The overall LPG market is expected to fluctuate as the basis is strong, the futures valuation is low, and there is no obvious fundamental driver [1] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Spot Prices**: On August 11, 2025, the prices of South China LPG, East China LPG, and Shandong LPG were 4360, 4401, and 4490 respectively, with daily changes of -20, -2, and -30. The cheapest deliverable was South China civil LPG at 4360 [1] - **International Market Prices**: Propane CFR South China was 555, propane CIF Japan was 519, and MB propane spot was 67. CP forecast contract price was 520, with a daily change of -2 [1] - **Other Product Prices**: Shandong ether - post carbon four was 4880, Shandong alkylated oil was 7830, paper import profit was -232, and the main basis was 561, with a daily change of -45 [1] Market Trends - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market showed a mixed trend. The futures price strengthened, the monthly spread fluctuated, and the 09 - 10 spread was -474 (+4). The basis strengthened to 606 (+161), and the 9 - 10 monthly spread was -478 (-39). The number of registered warehouse receipts was 10179 lots (+420) [1] - **International Market**: The international market fundamentals were loose. FEI and CP fluctuated, and MB weakened. North - Asia and Middle - East oil - gas price ratios declined, while the North - American oil - gas price ratio slightly increased. The internal - external price difference decreased significantly. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] Weekly Outlook - **Supply and Demand**: Unloading port volume increased, port inventory rose, factory inventory decreased by 0.51%, and the commercial volume increased by 0.57%. PDH operating rate was 73.84% (+1.21pct), with some plants starting, restarting, or shutting down [1] - **Profitability**: PDH spot profit weakened, paper profit continued to improve. Alkylated oil production gross profit decreased. MTBE gas - fractionation etherification gross profit increased slightly, and isomerization etherification gross profit decreased slightly [1] - **Shipping and Costs**: VLGCs' waiting time at the Panama Canal increased, expected to decline later. Freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and the Middle - East to the Far - East increased. FEI - MOPJ narrowed significantly, and the naphtha crack spread strengthened [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - There is no clear core viewpoint presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - **Australian Ore**: Newman powder is priced at 775, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly increase of 8; PB powder is at 778, up 8 daily and 5 weekly; Mac powder is 767, rising 7 daily and 5 weekly; Jinbuba powder is 752, increasing 10 daily and 7 weekly; mainstream mixed powder is 708, up 11 daily and 11 weekly; super special powder is 653, rising 6 daily and 7 weekly; Carajás powder is 879, increasing 6 daily and 1 weekly; Roy Hill powder is 748, up 8 daily and 5 weekly; KUMBA powder is 838, rising 8 daily and 5 weekly [1]. - **Brazilian Ore**: Brazilian blend is 812, with a daily increase of 3 and a weekly increase of 16; Brazilian coarse IOC6 is 768, up 8 daily and 5 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG is 773, rising 8 daily and 5 weekly [1]. - **Ukrainian Ore**: Ukrainian concentrate powder is 878, increasing 13 daily and 18 weekly [1]. - **Indian Ore**: 61% Indian powder is 741, up 10 daily and 7 weekly; 57% Indian powder is 598, rising 6 daily and 7 weekly [1]. - **Domestic Ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 971, increasing 13 daily and 44 weekly [1]. 3.2 Futures Market - **DCE Contracts**: i2601 is at 789.0, with a daily increase of 15.5 and a weekly increase of 23.0; i2605 is 768.0, up 15.0 daily and 25.5 weekly; i2509 is 796.5, rising 6.5 daily and 6.0 weekly [1]. - **FE Contracts**: FE01 is 101.76, with a daily decrease of 0.30 and a weekly increase of 2.33; FE05 is 99.59, down 0.45 daily and up 2.17 weekly; FE09 is 102.10, with a daily decrease of 0.15 and a weekly increase of 2.10 [1].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the reports [1][2][3] Core View - The reports present the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 12, 2025 [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 12, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79140, LME spot price was 9676, and the spot ratio was 8.12. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.18 with a profit of - 117.15. The domestic three - month price was 79050, LME three - month price was 9759, and the three - month ratio was 8.10 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22530, LME spot price was 2836, and the spot ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.66 with a profit of - 2036.17. The domestic three - month price was 22610, LME three - month price was 2840, and the three - month ratio was 5.94 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20630, LME spot price was 2609, and the spot ratio was 7.91. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.50 with a profit of - 1542.06. The domestic three - month price was 20690, LME three - month price was 2617, and the three - month ratio was 7.89 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120900, LME spot price was 15028, and the spot ratio was 8.05. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.26 with a profit of - 1921.73 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16725, LME spot price was 1974, and the spot ratio was 8.47. The domestic three - month price was 16885, LME three - month price was 2009, and the three - month ratio was 11.24. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86 with a profit of - 765.90 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 12, 2025, the spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 560, 590, 570, and 560 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 494, 887, 1288, and 1689 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 90, 110, 115, and 100 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 337, 459, and 580 [3] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were 5, - 5, - 40, and - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 330, 445, and 561 [3] - **Lead**: The spreads were 95, 95, 115, and 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 [3] - **Nickel**: The spreads of the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts relative to the spot month were 1180, 1330, 1500, and 1730 [3] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1110, and the theoretical spread was 5566 [3] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 635 and - 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 26 and 546 [3] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 30 and 60 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 92 and 223 (also mentioned with theoretical spreads of 96 and 221) [3] - **Lead**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were 65 and 160 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 97 and 209 [3] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 12, 2025, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous contracts) were 3.50, 3.82, 4.68, 0.92, 1.23, and 0.75 respectively, and in London (three - continuous contracts) were 3.45, 3.76, 4.87, 0.92, 1.30, and 0.71 respectively [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current main contradictions in the EC market are the decline slope during the off - season, uncertainties in geopolitics and tariffs, and the repeated domestic macro - sentiment. It is recommended to continue holding short positions on the 10 - contract and maintain the logic of shorting at high levels [2][30]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 EC Futures Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2508 had a yesterday's charge price of 2071.0 with a - 0.08% change; EC2510 was at 1436.0 with a 1.10% change; EC2512 was 1760.0 with a - 0.18% change; EC2602 was 1530.4 with a 1.66% change; EC2604 was 1353.0 with a 0.46% change; EC2606 was 1490.5 with a 0.17% change [2][30]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: For example, EC2510 had a yesterday's volume of 56447 and an open interest of 56602 with an increase of 3006 [2][30]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2508 - 2510 spread was - 17.3 compared to the previous day and - 65.5 week - on - week; EC2510 - 2512 spread was 18.8 compared to the previous day and - 68.6 week - on - week; EC2512 - 2602 spread was - 28.2 compared to the previous day and 22.6 week - on - week [2][30]. 3.2 Spot Freight Rate Indexes (European Line) - **SCFI**: Updated every Friday, on 2025/8/8, it was 1961 dollars/TEU, down 4.39% from the previous period and - 1.87% for the next - period change [2][30]. - **CCFI**: On 2025/8/8, it was 1799.05, up 0.53% from the previous period and 0.13% for the next - period change [2][30]. - **NCFI**: Updated weekly, on 2025/8/8, it was 1257.71, down 8.37% from the previous period and - 3.53% for the next - period change [2][30]. 3.3 Recent European Line Quotes - Week33 had an average quote of about 3150 US dollars (equivalent to around 2200 points on the disk). In Week34, quotes from various shipping companies dropped by 200 - 300 US dollars, with an average of 2850 US dollars (2000 points). The PA Alliance was at 2700 US dollars, MSK at 2600 US dollars, and the OA Alliance at 2900 - 3000 US dollars [3][31]. 3.4 Fundamental Situation - In the second week of August (Week33), the cargo - receiving situations of different alliances varied, with MSK performing well, OA being average, and PA being poor. In Week34, cargo - receiving significantly declined. EMC cancelled its independent ship in Week35, and OA added a suspension in Week39. The weekly average capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 were 327,000, 321,000, and 319,000 TEU respectively, and 327,000, 300,000, and 287,000 TEU after considering all TBN as suspensions [2][30]. 3.5 Related News - On 8/8, the Israeli security cabinet approved the IDF's plan to take over Gaza City and agreed to the "five major principles" for a cease - fire. On 8/9, sources said that Qatar and the US were formulating a comprehensive cease - fire agreement plan for the Gaza Strip [4][32].

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: August 11, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the absolute price of crude oil dropped to $65 per barrel for Brent. The monthly spreads of crude oil in the three major markets declined slightly. Geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced over the weekend due to potential misunderstandings about the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire and Iran's plan to block the "US corridor" in the Caucasus. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week, with a slight decline in US commercial crude oil inventories, and changes in gasoline and diesel inventories in different regions. After the decline in crude oil prices, global refinery profits rebounded. The near - term crude oil fundamentals are volatile. Supply faces a risk of decline due to sanctions on Iran and Russia, OPEC+ crude oil exports are expected to accelerate, and refinery operations in the third quarter are expected to be stronger than anticipated, which supports the monthly spread. However, the peak of the global supply - demand fundamentals has passed. It is expected that the absolute price of crude oil will maintain a volatile pattern, and it is predicted to fall to $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy and the non - OPEC production schedule [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From August 4 - 8, 2025, WTI prices decreased from $66.29 to $63.88, Brent from $68.76 to $66.59, and Dubai from $70.64 to $69.22. SC decreased from 514.30 to 489.80. Other related products also showed various price changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Ukraine's armed forces attacked Russia's Saratov refinery. Iran vowed to block the "US corridor" in the Caucasus. There might be a misunderstanding about Russia's cease - fire requirements by Trump's envoy. Canada plans to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne crude oil. OPEC's oil production in July increased by 270,000 barrels per day compared to June. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on China for buying Russian oil, and China responded that its energy cooperation with Russia is legitimate. India continues to import Russian oil but the quantity may decline. Russian crude export price discounts have widened [3][4][5]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - According to the EIA report for the week of August 1, US crude exports increased by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 30,000 barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.029 million barrels to 424 million barrels (a 0.71% decline), the four - week average supply of US crude products increased by 1.61% year - on - year, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 235,000 barrels to 403 million barrels (a 0.06% increase), and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 174,000 barrels per day to 5.962 million barrels per day. From July 25 - 31, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased slightly, while that of Shandong local refineries remained basically unchanged. Chinese refinery output showed a decline in gasoline and an increase in diesel, with corresponding changes in inventories. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, while that of local refineries declined [6]. 3.4 Weekly View - The absolute price of crude oil dropped this week, and geopolitical uncertainties resurfaced. Global oil inventories increased, and refinery profits rebounded after the price decline. Near - term fundamentals are volatile. Supply may decline due to sanctions, OPEC+ exports are expected to accelerate, and third - quarter refinery operations are expected to be stronger. The peak of supply - demand fundamentals has passed, and the price is expected to be volatile and fall to $55 - $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and non - OPEC production schedules [6].

Group 1: Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - The financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day. The commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the IV of the two - strike options around the at - the - money option of the front - month contract, reflecting the IV change trend of the front - month contract [3] - The difference between the IV index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV. A larger difference means higher IV relative to HV, and a smaller difference means lower IV relative to HV [3] Group 2: Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Graphs - The document presents graphs showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV differences for various financial and commodity options, including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, and many commodity options such as silver, soybean meal, corn, etc [4] Group 3: Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantile represents the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means the current IV is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - The document provides the implied volatility quantile rankings for different options, such as PVC with a quantile of 0.92, PTA with 0.39, etc [6]