1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The valuation of the industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The EC2602 contract rose significantly on Monday due to the announcement of the last trading day, driving up other contracts [2] - The EC2512 contract is gradually moving towards the delivery logic and is expected to fluctuate after yesterday's closing at a discount [3] - For the EC2604 contract, a short - selling strategy at high levels is recommended [3] - If the peak season demand is gradually realized, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Price and Change** - EC2512 closed at 1792.3 with a 0.13% increase, trading volume of 7097, and open interest of 12086 with a decrease of 2434 [2] - EC2602 closed at 1726.0 with a 7.54% increase, trading volume of 44502, and open interest of 388880 with an increase of 837 [2] - EC2604 closed at 1187.7 with a 2.59% increase, trading volume of 4647, and open interest of 16182 with an increase of 564 [2] - Other contracts (EC2606, EC2608, EC2610) also had different price changes and volume/interest situations [2] - **Month - to - Month Spread** - The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 604.6, with a day - on - day decrease of 27.7 and a week - on - week decrease of 42.8 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 66.3, with a day - on - day decrease of 118.7 and a week - on - week decrease [2] - The EC2502 - 2604 spread was 538.3, with a day - on - day increase of 91.0 and a week - on - week increase of 110.9 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price Index** - The SCFIS (European Line) index on November 17 was 1357.67 points, a 9.78% decrease from the previous period [2] - The SCH (European Line) price on November 14 was $1417/TEU, a 7.11% increase from the previous period [2] - The CCFI (European Line) index on November 14 was 1403.64 points, a 2.69% increase from the previous period [2] - The NCFI index on November 14 was 979.34 points, a 7.42% increase from the previous period [2] 3.3 Recent Quotation Situation of European Lines - **November Lower - Half Price Increase Announcement** - Shipping companies previously announced a price increase of $2365 - 2950 for the lower half of November [4] - **Specific Weekly Quotes** - In Week 47, the offline PA was around $1900 - 2100, OA and Gemini were at $2200 - 2400, and the average shipping company price was $2260 (equivalent to about 1580 points on the futures market) [4] - In Week 48, MSK opened at $2000, PA remained the same, OA did not adjust the price, and the average price was $2230 (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures market) [4] - **December Price Increase Letters** - MSK and MSC have issued December price increase letters, and other shipping companies may follow this week [4] 3.4 Related News - On November 18, Hamas stated that it is legal to resist Israel by all means and refuses to disarm [5] - The UN Security Council passed a Gaza - related resolution on November 18, which was welcomed by the State of Palestine. The resolution aims to establish a permanent and comprehensive cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, ensure the unimpeded entry and distribution of humanitarian aid, and reaffirm the Palestinian people's right to self - determination and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state [5]

Global Asset Market Performance - On November 17, 2025, the 10 - year treasury bond yields of major economies varied, with the US at 4.140%, UK at 4.534%, etc. The latest changes, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also differed among countries. For example, the US 10 - year treasury bond yield had a latest change of - 0.009, a weekly change of 0.023, a monthly change of 0.159, and a yearly change of - 0.188 [3] - The 2 - year treasury bond yields also showed different trends. For instance, China (1Y) was 3.580% on November 17, 2025, with corresponding changes over different time periods [3] - The exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies had various changes. For example, against the South African zar, the latest change was 0.58%, and the yearly change was - 6.37% [3] - The performance of major economies' stock indices on November 17, 2025, showed declines in most cases. For example, the Dow Jones had a latest change of - 0.92%, and a weekly change of - 2.34% [3] - The credit bond indices of different types (emerging economies' investment - grade, high - yield, etc.) had different values and changes on November 17, 2025. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index was 3516.030, with a latest change of 0.05% [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 were 3972.03, 4598.05, 3012.07, 3105.20, and 7235.35 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes [4] - The PE (TTM) values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX were 14.14, 11.93, 32.98, 27.74, and 18.30 respectively, with环比 changes [4] - The risk premiums and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.54 and 2.75 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.04 and 0.07 [4] - The latest values and 5 - day average values of capital flows in A - shares, main boards, etc., showed different trends. For example, the latest value of A - share capital flow was - 543.55, and the 5 - day average was - 629.80 [4] - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were provided. For example, the latest trading volume of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19107.91, with a环比 change of - 472.88 [4] - The basis and amplitude of the main contracts of stock index futures (IF, IH, IC) were - 16.65, - 2.87, - 91.95 and - 0.36%, - 0.10%, - 1.27% respectively [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of treasury bond futures T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 108.485, 105.905, 108.240, 105.885 respectively, with no percentage changes [5] - The capital interest rates (R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M) were 1.5596%, 1.5321%, 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes (BP) of 7.00, 4.00, 0.00 [5]

Price Performance - London Platinum's latest price is $1532.00, with a change of -$70.00 [4] - London Palladium's latest price is $1385.00, with a change of -$78.00 [4] - LME Copper's latest price is $10812.00, with a change of -$65.50 [4] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 99.53, with a change of 0.25 [4] - The latest exchange rate of Euro against US Dollar is 1.16, with no change [4] - The latest exchange rate of Pound against US Dollar is 1.32, with no change [4] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar against Japanese Yen is 155.25, with a change of 0.72 [4] Trading Data - The latest inventory of SHFE Silver is 569.36, with a change of -7.53 [5] - The latest gold ETF holdings are 1041.43, with a change of -2.57 [5] - The latest silver ETF holdings are 15218.42, with no change [5] - The latest inventory of SGE Silver is 830.31, with no change [5] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE Silver is 1, with no change [5] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE Gold is 2, with no change [5]

燃料油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/18 | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/11/11 | 381.44 | 422.72 | -4.85 | 715.93 | -293.21 | 32.12 | 41.28 | | 2025/11/12 | 365.00 | 405.19 | -5.03 | 692.85 | -287.66 | 31.72 | 40.19 | | 2025/11/13 | 367.09 | 406.14 | -4.95 | 687.85 | -281.71 | 30.65 | 39.05 | | 2025/11/14 | 371. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and imports are likely to remain high in November. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, and inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland market. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. Upstream Sinopec and PetroChina, as well as coal - chemical enterprises, are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are also neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 contract basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. Overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. Import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. Non - standard HD injection prices are stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. In September, maintenance was flat month - on - month, and recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotes. New device pressure is large in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [7]. - **PP**: The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina, as well as mid - stream enterprises, are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Current downstream orders are average, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are more PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - **PVC**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream开工率 is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. Northwest plants undergo seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the realization of new production capacity and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether subsequent export orders can support high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and开工率 [7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 11 to 17, 2025, the power - coal futures price remained at 801. The Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2067 to 2020, the South China spot price decreased from 2073 to 1990, and the Northwest price converted to the delivery - location price decreased from 2608 to 2560 [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 11 to 17, 2025, Northeast Asia ethylene price decreased from 740 to an unspecified value. The North China LL price decreased from 6770 to 6810, and the East China LL price increased from 6950 to 7010. The two - oil inventory decreased from 12073 to 12017 [7]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 11 to 17, 2025, Shandong propylene price increased from 5750 to 5830. The East China PP price decreased from 6375 to 6360, and the two - oil inventory decreased from 14629 to 14621 [7]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 11 to 17, 2025, Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 807 to 792. The calcium - carbide - based PVC price in East China remained at 4570, and the basis (high - end delivery product) remained at - 90 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints explicitly stated in the provided content Summary by Directory Price - For silicon ferroalloy on November 18, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5150 and 5200 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 0 and -20. The factory - price converted to the futures market was 5450 and 5550. The main contract price was 5566, with a daily change of 76 and a weekly change of -22 [2]. - The export price of Tianjin 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 US dollars, with a daily and weekly change of -15; Tianjin 75 was 1080 US dollars, with a daily and weekly change of -20 [2]. - For silicon manganese, the factory - ex prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5600, 5550, 5600, 5580, and 5580 respectively. The main contract price was 5792, with a daily change of 44 and a weekly change of -28 [2]. Supply - There are historical data charts on the production, capacity utilization rate of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, and the production of silicon manganese in China, which can reflect the supply situation of the iron alloy industry over the years [4][6]. Demand - There are data on the demand for silicon manganese in China (Steel Union's data), the production of crude steel and stainless - steel in China, and the procurement volume and price of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, which can reflect the demand side of the iron alloy industry [4][6][7]. Inventory - For silicon ferroalloy, there are data on the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts [5]. - For silicon manganese, there are data on the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and the sum of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China and the inventory average available days in China [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon ferroalloy, there are data on electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, semi - coke production profit, and the production cost and profit of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5]. - For silicon manganese, there are data on the profit of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions, and the profit of silicon manganese converted to the main futures contract in Guangxi and Ningxia [7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report offers a comprehensive overview of the overnight market information for the oils and fats and oilseeds industry, covering the export, production, and inventory of key products in major countries, as well as the price and basis of relevant commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Market Information - **US Soybean Export**: As of the week ending November 13, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1,176,307 tons, in line with market expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year is 10,109,477 tons, compared to 17,587,634 tons in the same period of the previous year [1]. - **US Soybean Crushing**: In October 2025, the US soybean crushing volume reached a record high of 227.647 million bushels, a 15.1% increase from September and a 13.9% increase from October 2024. The soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies rose to 1.305 billion pounds at the end of October, a 5.0% increase from the end of September and a 21.5% increase from the same period last year [1]. - **Brazilian Soybean Planting and Export**: As of last Thursday, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop reached 71%, lagging behind 80% in the same period last year due to irregular rainfall. Brazil exported 2,302,124.10 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of November, with the daily average export volume increasing by 71% compared to the full - month daily average in November last year [1]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for December while keeping the export tariff at 10%. From November 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 4.09% month - on - month, but the export volume decreased by 44.9% (SGS data) or 10.0% (AmSpec data) month - on - month [1]. Spot Price The report provides the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from November 11 to 17, 2025 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, near - term TA has partial device maintenance, with开工 decreasing, polyester load dropping, inventory accumulating, and basis remaining weak. Spot processing fees improve slightly. PX has a good pattern, and opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. - For MEG, near - term domestic oil - based production increases, coal - based production has partial maintenance and load reduction, overall operation decreases, and inventory accumulates. In the short - term, EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease, and the long - term pattern is expected to weaken [3]. - For polyester staple fiber, near - term device operation is stable, production and sales are weak, and inventory accumulates. Although the downstream has no obvious improvement, short - fiber exports are growing, and opportunities for expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts should be noted [3]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 11 - 17, crude oil decreased by $0.2, PTA internal - market spot decreased by $20, and polyester margin increased by 37. The average daily transaction basis of PTA spot is 2601(-71) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Sichuan Energy Investment's 1 million - ton device is under maintenance [3]. - **Outlook**: TA will maintain a high - maintenance state, downstream pressure is not obvious, and the inventory accumulation slope is not high. Opportunities for positive spreads and expanding processing fees should be noted [3]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 11 - 17, MEG outer - market price decreased by $3, and MEG coal - based profit remained unchanged. The basis of MEG spot is around 01(+40) [3]. - **Device Changes**: Hongsifang's 300,000 - ton device, Huayi's 200,000 - ton device are under maintenance, and Zhenhai's 800,000 - ton device restarts [3]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, EG inventory accumulation is expected to continue, but the supply may decrease. The long - term pattern is expected to weaken [3]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Margin Changes**: From November 11 - 17, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by $15, and short - fiber profit remained unchanged. The spot price is around 6297, and the market basis is around 12 - 20 [3]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance information [3]. - **Outlook**: Although the downstream has no obvious improvement, short - fiber exports are growing, and opportunities for expanding processing fees and the situation of warehouse receipts should be noted [3]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: From November 11 - 17, the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 105, and the price of Thai cup - rubber remained unchanged. The weekly change of RU main contract is 205, and that of NR main contract is 190 [6]. - **Key Relationships**: The basis of mixed - RU main contract decreased by 125, and the processing profit of Thai standard remained at 15 [6]. - **Outlook**: The national explicit inventory is stable, and the Thai cup - rubber price is stable with rainfall affecting tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From November 11 - 17, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained unchanged, and styrene (CFR China) increased by 2. The daily change of PS (East China transparent benzene) is 20, and that of styrene domestic profit is - 55 [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices fluctuated narrowly this week, with downstream point - pricing volume rebounding. The price around 85,000 may be a psychological point - pricing level for downstream industries [1]. - Aluminum prices showed a short - term shock trend, with domestic prices stronger than overseas due to overseas production - halt news, and profit - taking causing a callback in the Shanghai aluminum market [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated. Supply may have a phased reduction at the end of the year, and the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities, and 01 - 03 calendar spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - Nickel and stainless - steel fundamentals are weak, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities considering the price - support motivation of Indonesian policies [6][7]. - Lead prices oscillated at a high level. It is expected to maintain a narrow - range shock next week, and it is recommended to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [8][9]. - Tin prices increased in the center of gravity. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [12]. - Industrial silicon supply and demand are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4, with prices expected to oscillate in the short - term and fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle in the long - term [16]. - Lithium carbonate prices are running strongly. If energy - storage demand remains high and power demand is stable, the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [18]. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated narrowly this week, being strong in the first half of the week driven by precious metals and adjusting on Friday. The downstream point - pricing volume rebounded significantly [1]. - **Macro Factors**: There are both expectations of loose liquidity and risks of AI bubbles. The short - term release of TGA liquidity after the US government's agreement to reopen the government supports risk - asset prices, while the concentrated trading of AI giants' bond risks has raised market concerns about AI risks [1]. - **Outlook**: The price around 85,000 may be a psychological point - pricing level for downstream industries, and attention should be paid to the industrial support at this level [1]. Aluminum - **Price Performance**: Overseas production - halt news and expectations boosted domestic aluminum prices, which were stronger than overseas prices. Short - term profit - taking led to a callback in the Shanghai aluminum market. Aluminum ingots continued to accumulate inventory, while aluminum rods, sheets, and foils slightly reduced inventory. The downstream consumption was acceptable, and the acceptance of high prices increased, showing a short - term shock trend [1][2]. Zinc - **Price Performance**: Zinc prices oscillated this week [5]. - **Supply Side**: Domestic and imported TC continued to decline this week. From the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, domestic zinc ore supply will be tighter, and processing fees have dropped significantly. The production of Huoshaoyun zinc ingots has started, and some smelters are under maintenance, with the total output expected to increase by about 6,000 tons month - on - month [5]. - **Demand Side**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, European demand is average, and Middle - East demand has high growth. Domestic social inventory is oscillating, and overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level. The export window has opened, and there has been some inventory delivery overseas [5]. - **Strategy**: Due to weak domestic consumption but potential phased supply reduction at the end of the year, the price may not fall deeply. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities with caution, and consider the 01 - 03 calendar spread positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price Performance**: Nickel prices declined this week [6]. - **Supply Side**: The price of nickel sulfate is relatively stable, and the output of pure nickel decreased slightly month - on - month [6]. - **Demand Side**: The overall demand is weak, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel strengthened slightly after the price decline [6]. - **Inventory**: Both domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate [6]. - **Strategy**: Considering the price - support motivation of Indonesian policies, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [6]. Stainless Steel - **Supply**: Steel mills' production in October increased slightly month - on - month [7]. - **Demand**: The demand is mainly for rigid needs [7]. - **Cost**: The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remained stable [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory remained at a high level, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. - **Strategy**: Considering the price - support motivation of Indonesian policies, it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities [7]. Lead - **Price Performance**: Lead prices oscillated at a high level this week [8]. - **Supply Side**: The scrap volume is weaker year - on - year, and the recovery of recycled lead profits has encouraged复产. The supply of primary and recycled lead ingots has been tight since the end of September, and the resumption of recycled lead production has alleviated some supply - demand contradictions, with social inventory accumulating [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: The battery production rate increased by 1.4% this week, but the battery inventory accumulated, and the demand is expected to weaken. The refined - scrap price difference is - 100, and the recycled lead production has gradually started to produce [9]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range shock next week, ranging from 17,300 to 17,700. It is recommended to operate cautiously while observing the resumption of recycled lead production and the increase in warehouse receipts [9]. Tin - **Price Performance**: Tin prices increased in the center of gravity this week [12]. - **Supply Side**: The processing fees of tin ore remained at a low level, with limited upward space. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. Overseas production is still uncertain, and the Indonesian government's policy may affect the supply in the future [12]. - **Demand Side**: The demand is mainly supported by rigid needs at high prices, and the downstream's psychological price for orders has increased under the strong sentiment of non - ferrous metals. The overseas LME inventory is oscillating at a low level and recovering [12]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is recommended to hold near the cost line or use it as a long - position allocation in non - ferrous metals [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply Side**: The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was stable, with 93 furnaces in operation. By the end of November, there will be less than 20 furnaces in operation in Sichuan and Yunnan. The production in the northwest region is basically stable, with little overall change [16]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state in Q4. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Performance**: Lithium carbonate prices are running strongly, affected by the expected demand for lithium batteries and the market's bullish sentiment [18]. - **Raw Material**: The spot market of lithium ore is tight. Holders are more willing to sell when the futures price is high, and the self - pick - up transaction price of lithium concentrate is about 19,000 yuan lower than the futures price [18]. - **Lithium Salt**: The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and enterprises mainly rely on long - term contracts and pre - sales orders. The willingness to sell scattered orders increases when the futures price is high. The inventory of the middle and downstream is still relatively sufficient, and the futures - spot trading is inactive, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [18]. - **Outlook**: In the context of "anti - involution", the price elasticity of lithium carbonate is high after the supply - side disturbances are resolved, and the downward support is strong before the resolution. If the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PG main contract is running strongly. The basis is 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread is 93 (+21). The cheapest deliverable is East China civil LPG at 4364 (-10), Shandong at 4440 (+60), and South China at 4460 (+10); ether - after carbon four is 4630 (+130). The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and the domestic chemical market is strong with the expectation of the civil market strengthening in the peak season, but the futures price is over - valued. Attention should be paid to the weather and the situation of cold snaps in the US [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Monday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4364 (+0), in Shandong was 4400 (+0), and in South China was 4390 (-70). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4670 (+40). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of -28 (-42) and a 12 - 01 month spread of 82 (-12). FEI was 503 (+1) and CP was 483 (+2) dollars per ton [4]. Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis decreased by 101, and the 12 - 01 month spread increased by 21. The prices of the cheapest deliverable in different regions and ether - after carbon four changed. The outer - market paper goods rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly, the month spread strengthened, and the internal - external price difference weakened. The premium strengthened, and the freight weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread decreased, the naphtha crack spread changed little, and remained at a relatively high level this year. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene recovered slightly, the profit of alkylation units worsened, the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit was still good. Domestic production decreased slightly, arrivals were limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and ports destocked. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71). Overall, the domestic chemical market is strong, the civil market has the expectation of strengthening in the peak season, but the futures price is over - valued, and the international propane market pattern is loose [4].