Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The USDA's weekly export sales report was suspended due to the US federal government shutdown, but the overseas agricultural service will continue to process export sales information, and missing data will be补发 after federal funds are restored [1] - As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/26 market year is expected to be 60 - 160 million tons, the net increase in US soybean meal export sales is expected to be 5 - 50 million tons, and the net increase in US soybean oil export sales is expected to be 0.5 - 2.5 million tons [1] - Rabobank predicts that Brazil's soybean planting area for the 2025/26 season will be 48.8 million hectares, a 2% increase from the previous year, with a production of 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year [1] - Brazil's soybean crushing volume for the 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record 60 million tons, higher than the 58 million tons in the 2024/25 season, and the export volume is expected to be 111 million tons, the same as the previous year [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Prices - From October 23 - 29, 2025, the spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu fluctuated [2] Protein Meal Basis and Oil Basis - No specific content provided [3] Oil and Oilseed Futures Spreads - No specific content provided [4]

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/10/30 白糖 现货价格 基差 进口利润 仓单 日期 柳州 南宁 昆明 柳州基差 泰国 巴西 郑盘 2025/10/23 5790 5750 5730 333 - - 8196 2025/10/24 5780 5750 5730 334 - - 8771 2025/10/27 5780 5750 5725 335 - - 8381 2025/10/28 5780 5750 5720 297 - - 8281 2025/10/29 5780 5750 5720 286 - - 8211 变化 0 0 0 -11 - - -70 【行情分析】： 白糖：国际市场方面，现阶段巴西正处于压榨高峰期，供应压力使得国际糖价承压。截至目前，巴西单产和出糖率同比持续偏低，制糖比略有 回落但仍处于历史高位，后期产量不确定性增加，关注双周报数据。国内整体跟随原糖，进口糖陆续到港，加工糖报价下调明显，盘面上方压 力较大。 | 棉花棉纱 | | 棉花 | | | 棉纱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report Date: October 30, 2025 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures - BR主力合约(12) price on October 29 was 10,795, down 10 from the previous day and 325 from the previous week [4] - Open interest on October 29 was 52,216, up 3,562 from the previous day and down 17,656 from the previous week [4] - Trading volume on October 29 was 195,650, up 83,214 from the previous day and 96,252 from the previous week [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on October 29 was 8,580, unchanged from the previous day and down 340 from the previous week [4] - Long - short ratio on October 29 was 30.43, up 2 from the previous day and down 9 from the previous week [4] Basis/Spread - BR basis on October 29 was 5, down 140 from the previous day and up 25 from the previous week [4] - Styrene - butadiene basis on October 29 was 405, down 140 from the previous day and up 25 from the previous week [4] - 12 - 01 spread on October 29 was 25, up 5 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [4] - 01 - 02 spread on October 29 was - 20, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week [4] - RU - BR spread on October 29 was 4,830, up 275 from the previous day and 705 from the previous week [4] - NR - BR spread on October 29 was 1,925, up 200 from the previous day and 615 from the previous week [4] Spot - Shandong market price on October 29 was 10,800, down 150 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week [4] - Chuanhua market price on October 29 was 10,700, down 200 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on October 29 was 11,000, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 from the previous week [4] - CFR Northeast Asia price on October 29 was 1,450, down 25 from the previous day and 25 from the previous week [4] - CFR Southeast Asia price on October 29 was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on October 29 was 797, up 156 from the previous day and 516 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on October 29 was - 1,337, up 51 from the previous day and down 59 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on October 29 was 2,026, up 130 from the previous day and 223 from the previous week [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot - Shandong market price on October 29 was 7,650, down 300 from the previous day and 800 from the previous week [4] - Jiangsu market price on October 29 was 7,600, down 300 from the previous day and 850 from the previous week [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on October 29 was 7,900, down 300 from the previous day and 700 from the previous week [4] - CFR China price on October 29 was 940, down 10 from the previous day and 35 from the previous week [4] Profit - Carbon four extraction profit data for October 29 is not available [4] - Butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on October 29 was - 934, down 300 from the previous day and 780 from the previous week [4] - Import profit on October 29 was - 91, down 219 from the previous day and 543 from the previous week [4] - Export profit on October 29 was - 444, up 190 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week [4] Group 4: Other Production Profits - Styrene - butadiene production profit on October 29 was 1,213, up 250 from the previous day and 375 from the previous week [4] - ABS production profit on October 29 was 66, up 36 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week [4] - SBS production profit data for October 29 is incomplete [4]

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Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Date of Report: October 30, 2025 [5] - Report Team: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given report content. Group 4: Key Data Summaries 1. Basis and Spread - **Regional Basis**: The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) was 126 on September 30, 113 on October 23, 125 on October 27, -3199 on October 28, and -3194 on October 29, with a daily change of 5 on October 29. The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) and South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) also showed similar trends, with daily changes of 5 on October 29 [3]. - **Contract Spreads**: The 12 - 01 spread was 17 on September 30 and October 23, 11 on October 27, 10 on October 28, and 17 on October 29, with a daily change of 7 on October 29. The 12 - 03 spread and 01 - 02 spread also had their respective values and daily changes [3]. 2. Futures Contracts - **BU Main Contract (01)**: The price of the BU main contract (01) was 3424 on September 30, 3277 on October 23, 3295 on October 27, 3279 on October 28, and 3274 on October 29, with a daily change of -5 on October 29. The trading volume and open interest also had corresponding changes [3]. 3. Spot Prices - **Spot Prices of Different Sources**: The spot price of Jingbo was 3580 on September 30, 3330 on October 23, and 3350 on October 27. The spot prices of Hongrun, Zhenjiang Warehouse, and Foshan Warehouse also showed changes during the period [3]. 4. Profits - **Asphalt - Marey Profit**: The asphalt - Marey profit was 256 on September 30, 413 on October 23, 260 on October 27, 261 on October 28, and 283 on October 29, with a daily change of 22 on October 29. The comprehensive profit of Marey - type refineries also had corresponding values and changes [3].

Group 1: Explanation of Volatility Index - Financial option implied volatility index reflects the 30 - day implied volatility trend as of the previous trading day, and commodity option implied volatility index is obtained by weighting the implied volatilities of the two - strike options above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract month, reflecting the implied volatility change trend of the main contract [3] - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility, where a larger difference indicates that the implied volatility is relatively higher than historical volatility, and a smaller difference means the opposite [3] Group 2: Volatility Data Chart - The chart shows the implied volatility (IV), historical volatility (HV), and the difference between them (IV - HV) for various products including 300 - stock index, 50ETF, 1000 - stock index, 500ETF, silver, soybean meal, corn, sugar, cotton, methanol, rubber, iron ore, PTA, copper, crude oil, aluminum, PVC, rebar, urea, palm oil, etc [4] Group 3: Explanation of Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantile represents the current implied volatility level of a variety in history. A high quantile means the current implied volatility is high, and a low quantile means it is low [5] - Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5] - The document provides the implied volatility quantile ranking and historical volatility quantile ranking for different products such as 300 - stock index, corn, PTA, 50ETF, methanol, etc [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall market is influenced by tariff negotiation progress and the 15th Five - Year Plan communique. Different metals have different fundamentals and investment strategies. For copper, maintain a callback - buying idea; for aluminum, hold at low prices in the long - term; for zinc, be cautious in trading; for nickel, observe; for stainless steel, the fundamentals are weak; for lead, observe the regeneration and warehouse receipts; for tin, follow the macro - mood in the short - term and hold at low prices in the long - term; for industrial silicon, prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term; for lithium carbonate, the information about industrial silicon is repeated, and there is no specific core view for lithium carbonate presented separately [1][2][3][6][10][13][16] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai copper spot price decreased by 15, the waste - refined copper price difference decreased by 203, and LME inventory decreased by 1400 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Market sentiment is affected by tariff negotiations and the 15th Five - Year Plan. There are supply disturbances in waste copper, and the copper cable and aluminum cable start - up rates diverge [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a callback - buying idea, pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper, and consider selling put options below $10,300 or gradually establishing virtual inventory [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price remained unchanged, the domestic alumina price decreased by 4, and LME inventory decreased by 3625 [1] - **Fundamentals**: Operating capacity is flat, photovoltaic component production is stable, there is seasonal inventory accumulation, and the European electrolytic aluminum plant has a 200,000 - ton production reduction [1] - **Strategy**: Keep an eye on terminal demand in the short - term and hold at low prices in the long - term [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the zinc price oscillated upwards, the spot premium decreased by 10, and LME inventory decreased by 1800 [2] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side TC is declining, demand is seasonally weak domestically and has some resistance overseas, and the export window has opened [2] - **Strategy**: Observe in the short - term, gradually take profit on domestic - foreign positive spreads, look for far - month reverse spreads, and pay attention to the 12 - 02 positive spread opportunity [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 950, and LME inventory increased by 156 [3] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is at a high level, demand is weak, and inventories are increasing both at home and abroad [3] - **Strategy**: Observe due to short - term weak fundamentals and increased macro - uncertainty [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, and the waste stainless steel price decreased by 50 [3] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is slightly increasing, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs are stable, and inventories are at a high level [3] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided, but the fundamentals are overall weak [3] Lead - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the lead price increased due to spot tightness, the spot premium increased by 10, and LME inventory decreased by 2700 [6] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side regeneration is slow, demand has reversed the weakening expectation, and the spot is in short supply [6] - **Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate narrowly between 17,300 - 17,700, and observe the regeneration and warehouse receipt increase [6] Tin - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the tin price oscillated, the position decreased by 5024, and LME inventory decreased by 25 [10] - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side processing fees are low, and demand is mainly rigid. Overseas production has uncertainties [10] - **Strategy**: Follow the macro - mood in the short - term and hold at low prices close to the cost line in the long - term [10] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the basis of different grades changed, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 141 [11] - **Fundamentals**: Supply will decline in the dry season, but considering polysilicon plant maintenance, Q4 supply - demand is in a balanced and slightly loose state with a monthly inventory accumulation of 400,000 - 500,000 tons [13][16] - **Strategy**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short - term and cycle at the bottom in the long - term [13][16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From Oct 22 - 28, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1950, the SMM industrial carbon price increased by 2000, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 404 [16] - **Fundamentals**: No specific fundamentals for lithium carbonate are presented separately, and the information about industrial silicon is repeated [16] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy for lithium carbonate is provided [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, lead, nickel, and tin on October 29, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 29, 2025, the domestic spot price was 87,900, the LME spot price was 10,882, and the spot price ratio was 8.12; the domestic three - month price was 86,950, the LME three - month price was 10,902, and the three - month price ratio was 8.06. There was no data on spot import and export profitability [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,260, the LME spot price was 3,207, and the spot price ratio was 6.94; the domestic three - month price was 22,335, the LME three - month price was 3,036, and the three - month price ratio was 5.73. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.47, with a loss of 4,911.54 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 21,160, the LME spot price was 2,863, and the spot price ratio was 7.39; the domestic three - month price was 21,180, the LME three - month price was 2,861, and the three - month price ratio was 7.42. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.31, with no profitability data [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 123,450, the LME spot price was 14,978, and the spot price ratio was 8.24. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.15, with a loss of 1,509.48 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 17,225, the LME spot price was 1,978, and the spot price ratio was 8.71; the domestic three - month price was 17,365, the LME three - month price was 2,014, and the three - month price ratio was 11.11. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.71, with no profitability data [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On October 29, 2025, the spreads between the next - month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot - month contract were - 1410, - 1440, - 1430, and - 1500 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 544, 986, 1437, and 1888 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 0, 25, 40, and 75 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 335, 456, and 576 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 165, - 125, - 110, and - 110 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 218, 336, 455, and 573 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were - 170, - 160, - 160, and - 80 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 213, 321, 430, and 539 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 1500, - 1320, - 1100, and - 800 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 940, and the theoretical spread was 5858 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were 515 and - 895 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 415 and 695 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 50 and 50 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 146 and 276 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 300 and 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 181 and 295 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On October 29, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (triple - continuous) were 3.89, 4.11, 5.01, 0.95, 1.22, and 0.78 respectively, and for London (triple - continuous) were 3.61, 3.81, 5.45, 0.95, 1.43, and 0.66 respectively [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - No clear - cut core view is presented in the given report content. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 SP Main Contract Closing Price - The closing price of the SP main contract on October 28, 2025, was 5226.00. The closing prices on October 27, 24, 23, and 22 were 5258.00, 5240.00, 5250.00, and 5220.00 respectively. The daily price changes were - 0.60860%, 0.34351%, - 0.19048%, 0.57471%, and 0.96712% [3]. - The converted US - dollar prices on these dates were 645.65, 645.65, 642.32, 643.64, and 639.70 respectively. The basis for Shandong Yinxing was 274, 242, 350, 350, and 380, and for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing was 309, 277, 310, 310, and 340 [3]. 3.2 Import Profit and Price Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian Golden Lion (CFR), the port US - dollar price was 780, the Shandong region RMB price was 6200, and the import profit was - 136.75. For Canadian Lion (CFR), the port US - dollar price was 730, the Shandong region RMB price was 5350, and the import profit was - 585.04. For Chilean Yinxing (CFR, 90 - day letter of credit), the port US - dollar price was 680, the Shandong region RMB price was 5500, and the import profit was - 33.32 [4]. 3.3 Pulp and Paper Price Averages - From October 22 to 28, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged [4]. - The indices of cultural paper (double - offset and double - copper), packaging paper (white card), and living paper remained unchanged from October 23 to 28, 2025. The double - offset, double - copper, white - card, and living - paper indices were 5725, 5670, 4350, and 841 respectively [4]. 3.4 Pulp Profit Margin Estimation - The estimated profit margins of double - offset paper on October 23, 24, 27, and 28, 2025, were - 0.0774%, - 0.0430%, 0.2667%, and 0.2667% respectively. For double - copper paper, they were 12.9677%, 13.0000%, 13.2903%, and 13.2903%. For white - card paper, they were - 10.3133%, - 10.2892%, - 9.2823%, and - 9.2823%. For living paper, they were 7.1077%, 7.1459%, 6.9932%, and 6.9932% [4]. 3.5 Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp on October 28, 27, 24, 23, and 22, 2025, were 1250.00, 1250, 1350, 1360, and 1350 respectively. The spreads between softwood and natural pulp were 100, 100, 190, 200, and 200. The spreads between softwood and chemimechanical pulp were 1700, 1700, 1790, 1800, and 1800. The spreads between softwood pulp and waste paper were 3924, 3924, 4014, 4024, and 4024 [4].

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: October 29, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers and India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports have affected the market. Short - term support from Indian purchases is expected to continue in the Dubai market, while the medium - term impact on oil prices depends on multiple factors. Geopolitical concerns were raised by US military actions against Venezuela. Fundamentals have improved, but the Singapore diesel inventory build has limited the global diesel crack spread. Short - term oil price rebounds and volatility risks increase, and the upside space for medium - term oil prices is limited due to OPEC's potential to increase production, with an oversupply situation continuing in the fourth quarter [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 24 decreased by 4.02 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 2.981 million barrels in the previous week [3]. - Israel attacked Gaza again, but US officials said the cease - fire "remained in effect". Hamas postponed the return of Israeli detainees' remains due to Israeli attacks [3]. - Russia's Peskov said it was currently unable to assess the prospects of restarting Russia - Ukraine negotiations, citing Ukraine's lack of willingness to continue dialogue [3]. - An executive of an Indian oil company stated that India would never completely stop buying Russian crude [4]. - Morgan Stanley predicted that the Brent crude price would be $57.5 per barrel in the first half of 2026 and $60 in the second half [4]. - Currently, about 1.4 billion barrels of crude oil are being shipped on tankers, the highest level since records began in 2016 [4]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - For the week ending October 17, US crude oil exports decreased by 263,000 barrels per day to 4.203 million barrels per day [4]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 700 barrels to 13.629 million barrels per day for the week ending October 17 [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 1 million barrels to 422.8 million barrels, a 0.2% decline [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.474 million barrels per day, a 0.1% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 800,000 barrels to 408.6 million barrels, a 0.2% increase for the week ending October 17 [5]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.918 million barrels per day for the week ending October 17, an increase of 393,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [5]. - US EIA gasoline inventory for the week ending October 10 decreased by 267,000 barrels, with an expected decrease of 75,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 1.601 million barrels [5]. - US EIA refined oil inventory for the week ending October 10 decreased by 4.529 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 294,000 barrels and a previous decrease of 2.018 million barrels [5]. - From October 16 - 23, the operating rate of major refineries and Shandong local refineries decreased slightly. Domestic gasoline and diesel production and inventories both decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries fluctuated downward, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries declined month - on - month [6]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, oil prices rebounded significantly, with Brent crude closing above $65. US sanctions on major Russian oil producers and India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports have affected the market. Short - term support from Indian purchases is expected to continue in the Dubai market, while the medium - term impact on oil prices depends on multiple factors. Geopolitical concerns were raised by US military actions against Venezuela. Fundamentals have improved, but the Singapore diesel inventory build has limited the global diesel crack spread. Short - term oil price rebounds and volatility risks increase, and the upside space for medium - term oil prices is limited due to OPEC's potential to increase production, with an oversupply situation continuing in the fourth quarter [7].