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燃料油早报-20251015
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 01:12
Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst was oscillating at a high level, the spread of nearby months weakened, the basis oscillated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread oscillated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The monthly spread was weakly sorted out, the LU internal - external spread fell to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened [3][4]. - From the fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased, which was at a high level compared to the same period. The floating storage decreased significantly. The ARA residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low level for the same period. The EIA residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level. The inventory in Fujairah slightly increased, which was at a low level compared to the same period. The high - sulfur floating storage in the Middle East decreased significantly this week [4]. - Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, but the cracking is supported by raw material procurement. The short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded when the price is low. Pay attention to the quota usage [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS, and other indicators have fluctuated from September 30, 2025, to October 13, 2025. For example, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF dropped from 390.14 on September 30 to 378.78 on October 13 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Data - The prices of Singapore 380cst M1, Singapore 180cst M1, etc., have also changed during the same period. For instance, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased from 399.48 on September 30 to 376.28 on October 13 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased from 400.31 to 363.63, and the FOB VLSFO price dropped from 470.02 to 432.26 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 decreased. For example, the price of FU 01 decreased from 2867 to 2700 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From September 30 to October 14, 2025, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 decreased. For example, the price of LU 01 decreased from 3398 to 3196 [3].
芳烃橡胶早报-20251015
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 01:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the near - end TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up has slightly declined, the polyester load has increased month - on - month, the inventory has slightly accumulated, and the basis has remained weak. The domestic PX start - up has increased, overseas plants have also restarted, and the PXN has widened month - on - month. There may be additional load reduction and production plans for TA, but considering the lack of more - than - expected performance of polyester, the far - month inventory accumulation is expected, and the far - month processing fee is relatively reasonable after the valuation repair month - on - month. Attention should be paid to additional maintenance situations [1]. - For MEG, the near - end domestic oil - based start - up has remained stable, the coal - based has restarted, and the overall load has increased to a high level. There is some maintenance overseas. The port inventory has significantly accumulated at the beginning of next week due to the increase in arrivals during the holiday and the dull shipment. The basis has slightly strengthened, and the benefit ratio has further shrunk. The industry has entered a continuous inventory accumulation stage, but there may be some negative feedback on the supply side after the coal - based benefit and ratio weaken. Attention should be paid to the support of coal - based costs [4]. - For polyester staple fiber, the short - term Xinjiang Jianshanli has been under maintenance, Zhejiang Huaxing has increased its load, the start - up has decreased to 94.3%, the production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up of the polyester yarn end has remained stable, the raw material inventory has decreased, the finished product inventory has remained stable month - on - month, and the benefit has been weak. The load - increasing speed of the polyester yarn end may slow down due to the high - level finished product inventory, but the start - up of short - fiber spot remains high due to good benefits, and the inventory pressure is limited. The processing fee is expected to fluctuate [4]. - For natural rubber, the national explicit inventory has remained stable, and the price of Thai cup rubber has remained stable. The strategy is to wait and see [4]. - For styrene and its downstream products, the prices of related products have changed to different degrees, and the production profits of some products have also changed. The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS have also shown different trends [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Price and Spread Changes**: From September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, the price of PTA has changed, such as the domestic PTA spot price has decreased from 6650 to 6520, and the PX - naphtha spread has also changed [1]. - **Load and Inventory Situation**: The near - end TA maintenance has been implemented, the start - up has slightly declined, the polyester load has increased month - on - month, and the inventory has slightly accumulated [1]. MEG - **Price and Profit Changes**: From September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, the price of MEG has decreased, and the profit has also changed. For example, the MEG domestic price has decreased from 4275 to 4145, and the profit has decreased from 128 to 54 [4]. - **Load and Inventory Situation**: The near - end domestic oil - based start - up has remained stable, the coal - based has restarted, and the overall load has increased to a high level. The port inventory has significantly accumulated at the beginning of next week [4]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The spot price of polyester staple fiber has decreased, the production and sales have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory has accumulated month - on - month. The demand - side finished product inventory has remained stable month - on - month, and the benefit has been weak [4]. - **Start - up Situation**: The start - up has decreased to 94.3% due to short - term maintenance and load - increasing of some plants [4]. Natural Rubber - **Price and Inventory Changes**: The prices of various types of natural rubber have changed, and the national explicit inventory has remained stable. The price of Thai cup rubber has remained stable [4]. - **Strategy**: The strategy is to wait and see [4]. Styrene and Its Downstream Products - **Price and Profit Changes**: The prices of styrene and its downstream products such as pure benzene, EPS, ABS, and PS have changed, and the production profits of domestic products have also changed [4]. - **Start - up Situation**: The start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS have shown different trends [4].
合成橡胶早报-20251015
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 01:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view presented in the provided content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Contract Data**: On October 14, the closing price of the main contract was 10,780, down 140 from the previous day and 560 from the previous week; the position was 29,075, down 2,938 from the previous day and 9,475 from the previous week; the trading volume was 65,011, down 48,235 from the previous day and 93,149 from the previous week [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Ratios**: The warehouse receipt quantity was 8,750, up 200 from the previous day and 1,150 from the previous week; the virtual - to - real ratio was 16.61, down 2 from the previous day and 9 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The butadiene rubber basis was 270, up 40 from the previous day and 210 from the previous week; the 10 - 11 spread was down 20 from the previous day and 145 from the previous week [3]. - **Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,050, down 100 from the previous day and 350 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,200, unchanged from the previous day and down 300 from the previous week [3]. - **Profits**: The spot processing profit was 78, down 151 from the previous day and up 160 from the previous week; the import profit was - 79,720, down 100 from the previous day and up 1,903 from the previous week; the export profit was 435, up 87 from the previous day and 323 from the previous week [3]. 3.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Prices**: On October 14, the Shandong market price was 8,600, up 50 from the previous day and down 500 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 8,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 500 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 8,600, unchanged from the previous day and down 400 from the previous week [3]. - **Profits**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidation dehydrogenation profit was - 224, up 70 from the previous day and down 430 from the previous week; the import profit was 80, unchanged from the previous day and down 313 from the previous week; the export profit was - 548, unchanged from the previous day and up 127 from the previous week [3]. 3.3 Downstream Profits - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 192, down 191 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 888, up 38 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the SBS (791 - H) production profit was 730, up 45 from the previous day and down 360 from the previous week [3]. 3.4 Spreads - **Inter - Variety Spreads**: On October 14, the RU - BR spread was - 14,230, up 2,843 from the previous day and 8,945 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 17,085, up 2,888 from the previous day and 9,035 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,400, up 100 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Intra - Variety Spreads**: The standard - non - standard butadiene rubber spread was 400, down 50 from the previous day and up 200 from the previous week; the styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, up 50 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [3].
动力煤早报-20251015
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 01:01
最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 715.0 4.0 10.0 32.0 -150.0 25省终端可用天数 24.2 0.8 4.3 3.3 6.6 秦皇岛5000 625.0 5.0 12.0 33.0 -150.0 25省终端供煤 534.0 4.9 -74.6 -106.1 -88.9 广州港5500 770.0 5.0 5.0 15.0 -145.0 北方港库存 2266.0 -34.0 16.0 201.0 27.2 鄂尔多斯5500 495.0 10.0 10.0 30.0 -145.0 北方锚地船舶 112.0 -4.0 34.0 30.0 46.0 大同5500 545.0 10.0 5.0 25.0 -165.0 北方港调入量 129.8 9.0 -26.6 -33.0 -29.8 榆林6000 642.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 -199.0 北方港吞吐量 146.9 -41.7 38.8 -21.1 -10.7 榆林6200 670.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 -199.0 CBCFI海运指数 812.3 46.7 204.1 ...
LPG早报-20251015
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 00:59
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The current PG basis is high, FEI and CP valuations are low. The Sino - US tariff truce agreement will expire on November 10th. With low inventory pressure, abundant supply, strong chemical demand support, and gradually warming combustion demand, the improvement of PDH profit may lead to the purchase demand for CP goods. The report suggests paying attention to narrowing PDH profit, but also warns of the risk of the low - opening of the end - of - month CP official price [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Changes - On October 14, 2025, civil gas prices declined in different regions: in East China to 4383 (-3), in Shandong to 4440 (-10), and in South China to 4530 (-30). The price of ether - post carbon four remained at 4480 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 240 (-6), and the November - December spread was 150 (-43). FEI and CP decreased to 465 (-20) and 449 (-22) dollars/ton respectively [1]. - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was East China civil gas at 4384 (+21); Shandong was at 4450 (-100), and South China was at 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the November - December spread was 78 [1]. Weekly Viewpoint - The South China arrival discount was 52. Freight rates dropped significantly: from the US Gulf to Japan to 126 (-5), and from the Middle East to the Far East to 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to -83 (-28) [1]. - Some enterprises such as Weilian Chemical, Lihuayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua stopped production, and Zhongjing is expected to resume next week. The PDH plant operating rate was 70.88% (-1.64pct), and the PDH - to - propylene spot gross profit was +0. Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected [1]. - The FEI monthly spread was -15 dollars (-8.5), and the CP monthly spread was -8.75 dollars (+0.25). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The AFEI discount was -18.75, and the CP changed little; the profit of producing PP rebounded from a low level [1].
农产品早报-20251015
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 00:59
Group 1: Report Information - Report date: October 15, 2025 [2] - Report team: Research Center's Agricultural Products Team [2] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Corn - Changchun** | 2230 | 2110 | 1980 | 1970 | 1970 | 0 | | **Corn - Jinzhou** | 2190 | 2130 | 2120 | 2100 | 2080 | -20 | | **Corn - Weifang** | 2264 | 2150 | 2140 | 2130 | 2120 | -10 | | **Corn - Shekou** | 2440 | 2410 | 2380 | 2340 | 2310 | -30 | | **Corn - Basis** | 47 | -8 | -5 | 8 | -13 | -21 | | **Corn - Trade Profit** | 115 | 145 | 125 | 105 | 90 | -15 | | **Corn - Import Profit** | 306 | 290 | 262 | 223 | 216 | -7 | | **Starch - Heilongjiang** | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 2750 | 0 | | **Starch - Weifang** | 2850 | 2850 | 2850 | 2800 | 2800 | 0 | | **Starch - Basis** | 237 | 225 | 223 | 254 | 270 | 16 | | **Starch - Processing Profit** | 9 | 86 | 96 | 126 | - | - | [3] Market Analysis - **Corn**: New - season corn has been listed. Short - term prices will be weak due to concentrated supply. Mid - to long - term, focus on the game between farmers and traders. With increased production and lower costs, prices are approaching cost. Low prices and good quality may trigger farmers' resistance to selling, leading to a price rebound [4]. - **Starch**: After the holiday, raw material prices are down, but starch price adjustment is limited due to high production costs. Short - term, lower raw material prices and rising inventory will suppress starch prices. Mid - to long - term, price drops may stimulate downstream replenishment and support prices [4]. Group 3: Sugar Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Sugar - Liuzhou** | 5890 | 5870 | 5870 | 5850 | 5850 | 0 | | **Sugar - Nanning** | 5780 | 5800 | 5800 | 5800 | 5810 | 10 | | **Sugar - Kunming** | 5810 | 5820 | 5820 | - | 5780 | - | | **Sugar - Liuzhou Basis** | 397 | 342 | 374 | 380 | 453 | 73 | | **Sugar - Thai Import Profit** | 232 | 160 | 202 | - | - | - | | **Sugar - Brazilian Import Profit** | 414 | 341 | 384 | - | - | - | | **Sugar - Zhengzhou Warehouse Receipts** | 8968 | 8898 | 8867 | 8681 | 8488 | -193 | [5] Market Analysis - International sugar prices are under pressure due to Brazil's peak crushing season. Brazil's yield and sugar - extraction rate are low, and the sugar - making ratio is high, increasing production uncertainty. The domestic market follows the international market, with imported sugar arriving and downward pressure on prices [5]. Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data | Indicator | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Cotton - 3128** | 14545 | 14500 | 14500 | 14450 | 14425 | -25 | | **Cotton - Imported M - grade US Cotton** | 75.2 | 74.6 | 74.2 | 73.6 | 73.4 | - | | **Cotton - CotlookA(FE)** | 76.9 | 76.6 | 76.1 | 75.3 | - | - | | **Cotton - Import Profit** | 1059 | 1063 | 1152 | 1214 | - | - | | **Cotton - Warehouse Receipts + Forecast** | 3103 | 3041 | 2970 | 2898 | 2875 | -23 | | **Cotton Yarn - Vietnamese Yarn Spot** | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 2.52 | 0 | | **Cotton Yarn - Vietnamese Yarn Import Profit** | 267 | 200 | 219 | 205 | 203 | -2 | | **Cotton Yarn - 32S Spinning Profit** | -507 | -465 | -465 | -412 | -386 | 26 | [16] Market Analysis - Cotton is in a consolidation phase, waiting for demand verification. Without major macro - risks, the April low may be the long - term bottom. Downside is limited, and focus on demand changes [6]. Group 5: Eggs Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 - 14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Eggs - Hebei** | 3.40 | 3.00 | 2.89 | 2.78 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Liaoning** | 3.33 | 2.93 | 2.82 | 2.71 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Shandong** | 3.45 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.60 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Henan** | 3.45 | 2.85 | 2.85 | 2.60 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Hubei** | 3.53 | 3.02 | 2.93 | 2.70 | 0.05 | | **Eggs - Basis** | 731 | 420 | 461 | 245 | -113.00 | | **Eggs - White - feather Broiler** | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 3.38 | -0.02 | | **Eggs - Yellow - feather Broiler** | 3.65 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 0.00 | | **Eggs - Pigs** | 19.31 | 18.64 | 18.85 | 18.48 | 0.01 | [12] Market Analysis - Before the holiday, there was high uncertainty about holiday consumption and post - holiday restocking. Spot prices dropped 12.5% during the holiday, and the futures market declined after the holiday. In the short term, supply is high, demand is seasonally low, and prices are expected to be weak. Focus on the pace of culling hens, which can support prices [12]. Group 6: Apples Price Data | Indicator | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Apples - Shandong 80 First and Second - grade** | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 7500.00 | 0.00 | | **Apples - Shaanxi 70 Common** | - | - | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 0.00 | | **Apples - 1 - month Basis** | -1117.00 | -1133.00 | -1244.00 | -1138.00 | -1164.00 | -26.00 | | **Apples - 5 - month Basis** | -933.00 | -1022.00 | -1175.00 | -1127.00 | -1161.00 | -34.00 | | **Apples - 10 - month Basis** | -1688.00 | -1680.00 | -1675.00 | -1650.00 | -1700.00 | -50.00 | [12][13] Market Analysis - In the new season, apples in the western region are being bag - removed, and those in Shandong are delayed due to rain. Production in the west may increase slightly, but tree - felling is a problem. Shandong may see a 20% reduction. Overall, production is similar to last year, and quality is affected in some areas. The average opening price is above 3.5 yuan/jin [13]. Group 7: Pigs Price Data | Location | 2025/09/30 | 2025/10/09 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/13 | 2025/10/14 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | **Pigs - Henan Kaifeng** | 12.43 | 11.28 | 11.18 | 10.93 | 10.98 | 0.05 | | **Pigs - Hubei Xiangyang** | 12.30 | 11.25 | 11.05 | 10.80 | 10.80 | 0.00 | | **Pigs - Shandong Linyi** | 12.67 | 11.67 | 11.27 | 10.97 | 11.07 | 0.10 | | **Pigs - Anhui Hefei** | 12.95 | 11.70 | 11.30 | 11.25 | 11.30 | 0.05 | | **Pigs - Jiangsu Nantong** | 13.00 | 11.75 | 11.30 | 11.30 | 11.35 | 0.05 | | **Pigs - Basis** | 75 | -315 | -140 | -195 | -470 | -275.00 | [13] Market Analysis - Releasing short - term pressure may strengthen policy expectations for a production inflection point next year. Short - term rebounds due to low prices are possible, but mid - term supply pressure remains due to insufficient capacity reduction. Short - term supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and prices are at new lows. Focus on the pace of slaughter, diseases, and policies [13]
铁矿石早报-20251015
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 00:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - **Australian mainstream iron ore**: Newman powder price is 776, down 16 daily and up 1 weekly; PB powder price is 780, down 16 daily and up 2 weekly; Mac powder price is 774, down 15 daily and up 6 weekly; Jinbuba powder price is 750, down 16 daily and up 2 weekly; Mixed powder price is 750, down 12 daily and up 7 weekly; Super special powder price is 705, down 15 daily and down 1 weekly; Roy Hill powder price is 767, down 16 daily and up 10 weekly; KUMBA powder price is 839, down 16 daily and up 2 weekly [1] - **Brazilian mainstream iron ore**: Brazilian mixed ore price is 813, down 14 daily and down 2 weekly; Brazilian coarse IOC6 price is 784, down 16 daily and up 2 weekly; Brazilian coarse SSFG price is 789, down 16 daily and up 2 weekly [1] - **Other iron ore**: Ukrainian concentrate price is 905, down 15 daily and down 1 weekly; 61% Indian powder price is 739, down 16 daily and up 2 weekly; Carrera concentrate price is 905, down 15 daily and down 1 weekly; 57% Indian powder price is 638, down 15 daily and up 2 weekly; Atlas powder price is 745, down 12 daily and up 7 weekly [1] - **Domestic iron ore**: Tangshan iron concentrate price is 1020, unchanged daily and up 18 weekly [1] Futures Market - **DCE contracts**: i2601 contract price is 782.0, down 22.5 daily and up 1.5 weekly; i2605 contract price is 761.0, down 20.0 daily and up 1.5 weekly; i2609 contract price is 739.5, down 19.5 daily and down 1.0 weekly [1] - **SGX contracts**: FE01 contract price is 103.76, up 1.11 daily and up 2.42 weekly; FE05 contract price is 101.16, up 0.77 daily and up 1.63 weekly; FE09 contract price is 98.77, up 0.66 daily and up 1.29 weekly [1]
废钢早报-20251015
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-15 00:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data - The report presents the scrap steel prices in different regions (East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, Southwest China) from September 30, 2025, to October 14, 2025, along with the环比changes [3]
波动率数据日报-20251014
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 07:07
Report Summary Core View - The report provides daily volatility data, including implied volatility indices, historical volatility, and their spread trends for various financial and commodity options [3]. Details by Category Implied Volatility Index and Historical Volatility - Financial option implied volatility indices reflect the 30 - day implied volatility (IV) trend as of the previous trading day, while commodity option implied volatility indices are weighted by the IV of the two - strike prices above and below the at - the - money option of the main contract, showing the IV change trend of the main contract [3]. - The difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility (HV) indicates the relative level of IV to HV, with a larger difference meaning higher IV relative to HV and vice versa [3]. Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility Charts - The report presents charts showing the IV, HV, and IV - HV spreads for multiple options such as 300 Index, 50ETF, 1000 Index, 500ETF, and various commodity options like corn, sugar, cotton, etc. [4]. Implied Volatility Quantile and Volatility Spread Quantile Ranking - Implied volatility quantiles represent the current level of a variety's IV in history. A high quantile means the current IV is high, and a low quantile means it is low. Volatility spread is the difference between the implied volatility index and historical volatility [5]. - The report shows the ranking of implied volatility quantiles and historical volatility quantiles for different options, including 300 Index, 50ETF, corn, PTA, etc. [6]
集运早报-20251014
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 02:16
Report Overview - **Report Name**: "集运星报" [1] - **Report Date**: October 14, 2025 [2] - **Research Team**: Research Center's Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The current situation is characterized by a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, with significant fluctuations influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies. In the short term, due to spot price reduction expectations, geopolitical easing, and the impact of the Sino - US trade war, market sentiment may be weak. However, considering the expected peak season and long - term contract signing season, there may be opportunities to go long on contracts 12, 02 - 04 at low prices [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - **EC2510**: Closed at 1129.4 yesterday, with a change of 0.74%, trading volume of 4774, and an open interest of 16148 with a change of - 2204 [2]. - **EC2512**: Closed at 1562.5, with a change of - 0.54%, trading volume of 24678, and an open interest of 28771 with a change of 715 [2]. - **EC2602**: Closed at 1359.9, with a change of 1.64%, trading volume of 5747, and an open interest of 9376 with a change of - 392 [2]. - **EC2604**: Closed at 1098.5, with a change of 2.76%, trading volume of 4408, and an open interest of 12825 with a change of - 133 [2]. - **EC2606**: Closed at 1268.0, with a change of 1.55%, trading volume of 283, and an open interest of 1483 with a change of - 33 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: - EC2510 - 2512: The spread was - 433.1, with a daily change of 16.8 and a weekly change of 188.2 [2]. - EC2512 - 2602: The spread was 202.6, with a daily change of - 30.4 and a weekly change of 113.5 [2]. Spot Market Indicators - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly on Monday, as of October 13, 2025, it was 1031.8 points, a decrease of 1.40% from the previous period and 6.60% from two periods ago [2]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was $1068/TEU, an increase of 9.99% from the previous period [2]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was 1287.15 points, a decrease of 8.19% from the previous period [2]. - **NCFI (European Line)**: Updated weekly on Friday, as of October 10, 2025, it was 698.67 points, an increase of 11.39% from the previous period and 2.13% from two periods ago [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Situation - **Week 40 - 41**: Two - week joint cabin release. The average quotation was $1450 (equivalent to 1020 points on the futures market). MSK quoted $1400; PA quoted between $1300 - 1500; YML's $1300 was the lowest price of the year; OA quoted between $1400 - 1600 [2]. - **Week 42**: The price was announced to increase to $1800 - 2000. As of the weekend, it was not the booking window, and the quotation was not readjusted. It was reported that ONE quoted $1200 in the first half - month, and CMA's freight forwarder still quoted between $1500 - 1600 [2]. - **November Price Increase Announcement**: MSK, CMA, and OOCL announced price increases to around $2500, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market [2]. News - On October 13, Hamas released all Israeli detainees. On October 14, a cease - fire agreement for Gaza was signed in Egypt. The Sharm El - Sheikh "Peace Summit" was hosted by Egyptian President Sisi and US President Trump, but Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu canceled his participation, and Hamas did not send a representative [3].