黄金期货 2025.05.12-05.16 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周美联储召开议息会议，维持基准利率不变，并指出关税对通胀的影 响较大且不确定，美元指数止跌反弹，黄金高位震荡。中长期支撑逻辑： 美国财政赤字及全球央行购金仍提供基本面支撑。后续需关注美联储政 策路径、地缘冲突与关税进展。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 黄金短期回调压力犹存，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力 合约2506下方支撑：758－765，上方压力829-836。 n 本周策略建议 黄金短期回调，等待时机配置买入看涨期权。黄金主力合约2508 下方支撑：776－785，上方压力828-837。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 精选指标情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Myste ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices are expected to maintain a weak trend due to poor supply - demand fundamentals, high inventories, and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices will operate in a weak and volatile manner. Given the sharp decline in spot prices, cost - price inversion for some enterprises, high inventory levels, and a pessimistic market sentiment, prices may continue to fall. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider buying put options [30][31][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - The price of industrial silicon futures maintains a weak trend. Affected by poor supply - demand fundamentals, high inventories, and weak downstream demand in industries like polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy, prices are under pressure. The AI intelligent investment consultation shows the daily line is in a downward channel. It is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The price was expected to continue to be under pressure. It was recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors could consider buying a small amount of put options [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price will maintain a weak trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [14]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 25.73%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [18]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - line Market Analysis** - Lithium carbonate futures prices operate in a weak and volatile manner. After a sharp decline in the spot price last week, some integrated producers face cost - price inversion, market transactions are cold, and inventory levels are high. The AI variety diagnosis report shows the daily line is in a downward channel. It is recommended to wait and see [30][31]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the price of lithium carbonate might continue to fall, and it was recommended to wait and see [34]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The price may continue to fall, and aggressive investors can consider buying put options [35]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [38]. - As of April 19, 2024, the LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 66.03%. It is at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [40].

2025.05.12-05.16 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析螺纹钢期货主力合约本周 运行区间为2950至3080，建议关注3080一线的压力位置。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 螺纹钢周度产量233万吨，表观消费量214万吨，主要钢厂库存188万 吨，社会库存685万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中。 2 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 上周策略回顾 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略，参考运行区间为 2950至3080，可留意3080一线的压力位置。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑分步实施50%现货比例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相 ...

01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 2025.05.06-05.09 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 主 力 合 约 S A 2 5 0 9 上 周 呈 现 " 先 抑 后 扬 " 态 势 。 上 周 纯 碱 周 产 量 75.51万吨，开工率89.44%，环比微降0.06%。东北阜丰、天津碱 厂等装置检修导致局部供应减量，但远兴阿碱及金山新产能持续释 放，抵消检修影响。截至4月30日，全国库存总量679.67万吨，较 上周减少1.88万吨，但仍处近五年同期最高水平。浮法玻璃日熔量 1 5 . 7 8 万 吨 （ 环 比 - 0 . 4 4 % ） ， 光 伏 玻 璃 日 熔 量 9 . 7 3 万 吨 （ 环 比 +1.23%），重碱需求边际企稳但增量有限。轻碱下游开工率维持低 位，终端企业按需采购，贸易商囤货意愿不足。预计纯碱走势震荡 运行。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 近期纯碱装置检修少，供应高，五月上旬预计检修增产量降， 月 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: May 6 - 9, 2025 [1] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, and it may be near the end of the trend [7]. - Trend Logic: Recently, the marginal improvement of macro - economic data has weakened the safe - haven demand, short - term easing of trade frictions, and technical adjustments have led to a high - level decline in gold prices. However, the long - term support logic remains unchanged, with the US fiscal deficit and global central bank gold purchases providing fundamental support. Attention should be paid to the May non - farm payroll data and the change in the Fed's balance - sheet reduction rhythm. If geopolitical risks resurface or inflation rebounds, precious metals may regain upward momentum [7]. - Mid - term Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: As the May Day holiday approached, it was necessary to pay attention to risks and it was recommended to wait and see [10]. - This Week's Strategy: Gold still has short - term callback pressure. Wait for the right time to configure and buy call options. The lower support for the main gold contract 2506 is 758 - 765, and the upper pressure is 829 - 836 [11]. 3. Related Data - The report shows data on Shanghai Gold price trends, COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][20][22] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a sideways consolidation, and it may be near the end of the trend [32]. - Trend Logic: Silver has "dual attributes". When macro - uncertainty increases, although its safe - haven attribute can bring certain positive factors, its industrial attribute makes it also dragged down by the weakening economic growth expectations. Currently, the slowdown of global manufacturing growth and the weakening demand expectations in industries such as electronics and photovoltaics further suppress the fundamentals of silver. In the long - term, the continuous global silver supply - demand gap, China's stimulus plan and the growth of industrial demand, and the enhanced safe - haven attribute of silver due to geopolitical risks support the silver price under the resonance of multiple factors [32]. - Mid - term Strategy: Shanghai Silver will continue to consolidate sideways. The expected operating range of the main Shanghai Silver contract 2506 is 6900 - 8800, and it is recommended to adopt a grid trading strategy [32]. 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy: As the May Day holiday approached, it was necessary to pay attention to risks and it was recommended to wait and see. It was expected that the main silver contract 2506 would fluctuate in a large range, and a grid trading strategy was recommended within the range of 6900 - 8800 [35]. - This Week's Strategy: Not clearly stated in the provided content other than the last - week's related information 3. Related Data - The report shows data on Shanghai Silver price trends, COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [43][46][48]

2025.05.06-05.09 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第17周油厂大豆实际压榨量141.22万吨，开机率为 39.7%；大豆库存459.48万吨，较上周增加33.57万吨，增幅7.88%；豆粕 库存7.48万吨，较上周减少5.07万吨，减幅40.40%。节后随着大豆大量 集中到港，油厂开工率预计陆续恢复正常，大豆压榨量也将显著增加， 阶段性供应紧张局面逐步缓解。但目前下游饲料企业豆粕库存较低，节 后备库需求叠加全球贸易政策的不确定性。综合来看豆粕期价或延续宽 幅震荡走势。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价趋势整体横盘震荡的阶段,资金方面较为偏空。在 现货偏紧和预期宽松的影响下，M2509预计延续宽幅震荡， 运行区间：2900-3100，可考虑区间操作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势处于下行通道中,资金方面较为偏空。M2509 预计短 ...

2025.05.06-05.09 螺纹钢、铁矿石 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 螺纹钢期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 中线行情分析 长城期货AI智能大数据量化策略模型分析螺纹钢期货主力合约2510 本周运行区间为3030至3180，建议关注3180一线的压力区间。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 目录 螺纹钢周度产量233万吨，表观消费量291万吨，主要钢厂库存173万 吨，社会库存694万吨。长城期货AI智能投询品种诊断报告显示螺纹钢 期货价格日线级别处于下行通道中。 2 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 钢材现货客户可考虑分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 本周策略建议 现货客户可考虑在3150至3050区域分步实施卖出保值策略。 n 现货企业套期保值建议 钢材生产企业可考虑在3150至3050区域分步实施50%现货比 例的卖出保值策略。 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 相关数据情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 本报告数据 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal futures, the mid - line trend is in a wide - range oscillation. The current tight supply is due to slow recovery of oil mill operations and downstream stocking, but future supply is expected to increase. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For the soybean oil futures, the overall trend is in an interval oscillation. There is a temporary supply shortage before the holiday, but subsequent supply pressure will be released. It's also recommended to wait and see [34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soybean Meal Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation. In the 16th week, the oil mill's soybean actual crushing volume was 1315400 tons, with an operating rate of 36.98%. Soybean inventory increased by 17.58% to 4259100 tons, and the soybean meal inventory decreased by 56.80% to 125500 tons. The slow recovery of oil mill operations and downstream stocking led to a sharp reduction in inventory, but future supply is expected to increase. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways oscillation, with more positive funds. M2509 was expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 2950 - 3200, and interval operation was recommended [9]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways oscillation, with more negative funds. M2509 is expected to continue wide - range oscillation in the range of 2900 - 3100, and interval operation is recommended [10]. 3.1.3 Related Data Situation - Relevant data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio [20][22][28]. 3.2 Soybean Oil Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract continues an interval oscillation. In the 16th week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 249900 tons, an increase of 63000 tons from last week. The commercial inventory in key regions decreased by 43500 tons to 650400 tons. Temporary supply shortage before the holiday and improved macro - sentiment, but future supply pressure will be released. It's recommended to wait and see [34]. 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in a sideways consolidation, with more positive funds. Y2509 was expected to maintain interval oscillation in the range of 7500 - 8000, and interval operation was recommended [37]. - This week's strategy recommendation: The soybean oil futures price is in a sideways consolidation, with more negative funds. Y2509 is expected to maintain interval oscillation in the range of 7700 - 8100, and interval operation is recommended [38]. 3.2.3 Related Data Situation - Relevant data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, and trading volume [48][53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices are in a weak downward trend due to delayed polysilicon production, concentrated maintenance of silicone devices leading to weaker demand, high social inventory of 270,000 tons, and high futures warehouse receipts of 200,000 tons. The price will continue to be under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices are in a weak and volatile state. The spot market has an oversupply situation, and downstream manufacturers are mostly waiting and seeing, mainly purchasing raw materials for rigid demand. The price is under pressure to decline, and the pressure range for lithium carbonate 2507 is 71,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29][33]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The price is in a weak downward trend. The demand is weakening marginally, and the inventory is at a historical high. The AI intelligent investment consultation shows the price is in a downward channel. It is recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week: The situation of weak supply and demand was difficult to change, and the price would continue to be under pressure. It was recommended to wait and see. - This week: Due to high inventory and weak demand, the price will continue to be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE cathode copper inventory was 300,045 tons, an increase of 322 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, LME copper inventory was 122,125 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 25.73%. It was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [13][15]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The price is in a weak and volatile state. The spot market has an oversupply, and the technical analysis shows it is in a downward channel. The price is under pressure, and the pressure range for lithium carbonate 2507 is 71,000 - 72,000 [28][29]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - Last week: Lithium carbonate 2507 should focus on the operating range of 68,000 - 73,000, and a large - grid trading strategy could be considered. - This week: The pressure range for lithium carbonate 2507 is 71,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to wait and see [32][33]. - **Related Data Situation** - As of April 19, 2024, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory was 228,537 tons, a decrease of 3,228 tons from the previous week, and it was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years. - As of April 19, 2024, LME aluminum inventory was 504,000 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 66.03%. It was at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [35][37].

2025.04.28-04.30 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 近期装置检修少，整体供应处于较高水平，预计本周开工90+%，产 量76+万吨。五月上旬，检修企业逐步增加，预期产量下降。临近 月底，企业接收新订单。纯碱需求维持，消费稳定，低价补库为主， 下游原材料库存增加趋势，据了解有下游采购量合适，价格相对低。 下月纯碱检修计划增加，市场情绪提振。上周浮法日熔量15.78万 吨，环比减少700吨，光伏日熔量9.73万吨，环比增加1200吨。本 周，浮法生产线一条线放水，产能6 0 0吨，光伏预期两条，产能 2050吨，近期光伏行情有转弱迹象，点火有可能推迟。综上所述， 纯碱走势震荡运行，价格波动收窄。 2 中线策略建议 3 建议观望 中线行情分析 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 纯碱产量维持高位徘徊，下游整体需求波动小，下游原材料 库存增加趋势，市场情绪偏弱，驱动不足，预计纯碱维 持震荡运行。预计主力合约纯碱2509预期运行区间1250- 14 ...