Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 18, news of industrial equipment renewal and technological transformation boosted the commodity market, leading to price increases in PVC, caustic soda, styrene, etc. [2][3][6] - PVC's supply - demand remains weak overall, but is currently driven by policy expectations and shows a slightly stronger oscillation. Caustic soda's spot is stable with a weakening trend, while the far - month contract has support. Styrene has limited fundamental positives and shows a short - term strong oscillation. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong oscillation. Urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Soda ash has strong short - term macro driving forces, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. [2][3][6][7][9][10][11][12] Summary by Commodity PVC - **Price**: On July 21, the PVC 09 contract closed at 5118 yuan/ton (+181), with various market prices rising. [2] - **Cost**: Profit is at a low level, coal has a short - term rebound, oil is firm, and the proportion of ethylene method is about 30%. [2] - **Supply**: Summer production is higher than spring, and there is significant production capacity pressure in the third quarter (planned about 1 million tons). [2] - **Demand**: The real estate is weak, domestic demand depends on soft products and new industries. Exports set a record high in the first half of the year but may be over - drawn, and there are risks of weakening support. [2] - **Macro**: Overseas factors and domestic policies affect the market, and overall policy expectations have slightly improved. [2] - **Summary**: The de - stocking in the first half was due to export growth, but the sustainability of exports is questionable. Supply - demand is weak, and it is currently driven by policy expectations, with attention on the 5050 line support. [2] Caustic Soda - **Price**: On July 21, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2569 yuan/ton (+100), with some market prices changing. [3] - **Macro**: Macro sentiment is improving, and the impact of petrochemical industry equipment renewal needs attention. [3] - **Supply**: Production is at a high level, inventory is neutral, and supply is abundant. There are few maintenance plans in July - August, and attention should be paid to load reduction due to liquid chlorine tank fullness. [3] - **Demand**: Downstream resistance to high prices exists, non - aluminum demand is weak, and exports have phased orders. In the long run, demand from alumina plants will increase marginally. [3] - **Summary**: Supply is high, the spot is stable with a weakening trend, the near - month contract is under pressure, and the far - month contract has support from macro sentiment and peak - season demand. [3] Styrene - **Price**: On July 21, the styrene main contract was 7347 yuan/ton (+63), and spot prices also changed. [6] - **Cost**: Oil prices oscillate in the short term. Pure benzene has planned production capacity and high import expectations, and port inventory is high, limiting the rebound height. [6] - **Supply**: Port inventory is accumulating, and there are plans for large - scale production capacity in the future. [6] - **Demand**: Downstream production capacity growth is high, but profit and demand are weakening. Exports and domestic demand are affected by different factors. [6] - **Macro**: Macro sentiment is improving, and the impact of petrochemical policies needs attention. [6] - **Summary**: Fundamental positives are limited, and it shows a short - term strong oscillation, with attention on the 7300 line support. [6] Rubber - **Inventory**: As of July 20, Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased. China's natural rubber social inventory had different changes in different categories. [7] - **Production**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel and full - steel tire enterprises changed. [7] - **Raw Material Price**: Thai and domestic raw material prices are provided. [7] - **Market Price**: Natural rubber market prices increased, and the basis also changed. [7][8] - **Summary**: Supported by macro and cost factors, rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation. [7] Urea - **Price**: The 09 contract rose 3.07% to close at 1812 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased. [9] - **Supply**: The supply load rate was 83.48%, with daily output of 19.55 tons. [9] - **Cost**: The anthracite market price was stable and strong, and coal consumption was supported. [9] - **Demand**: Summer farming is almost over. The operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased, and other industrial demands were stable. [9] - **Inventory**: Enterprise and port inventories decreased, and there were 2523 registered warehouse receipts. [9] - **Summary**: Supply decreased slightly, demand increased marginally, inventory decreased, and prices are expected to oscillate between 1680 - 1850. [9] Methanol - **Price**: The 09 contract rose 1.56% to close at 2411 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened. [10] - **Supply**: The production capacity utilization rate was 82.69%, and weekly output decreased. Port arrivals are expected to be 50,000 tons. [10] - **Cost**: The thermal coal market price is expected to rise. [10] - **Demand**: The methanol - to - olefins industry's operation rate increased, while traditional downstream demand is weak. [10] - **Inventory**: Sample enterprise inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. [10] - **Summary**: Supply is tight in some areas, demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry increases, and prices are expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2450. [10] Polyolefins - **Price**: On July 21, the L and PP main contracts closed at 7290 yuan/ton and 7091 yuan/ton respectively, and various product prices changed. [11] - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of polyethylene and PP changed, and this week's maintenance losses were 120,500 tons. [11] - **Demand**: Downstream industries are in the off - season, with some industries' operation rates changing. [11] - **Inventory**: Plastic enterprise social inventory increased, and PP inventory decreased in some parts. [11] - **Summary**: Macro factors boost the market, cost - profit is stable, supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and prices are expected to rebound with limited strength, with specific price ranges to be concerned. [11] Soda Ash - **Price**: Affected by news, the night - session futures price increased significantly, and current market prices are provided. [12] - **Supply**: Some devices are under maintenance or reduced load, while others increase load, and daily output remains high. [12] - **Demand**: Float glass sales improved, while photovoltaic glass has seen many cold repairs, and the industry calls for a 30% production cut. [12] - **Summary**: Supply is high, demand is under pressure, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to strong short - term macro driving forces. [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to move sideways, and treasury bonds are expected to strengthen sideways [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar and iron ore are recommended for temporary observation, and coking coal and coke are expected to move sideways [1][7][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is recommended for light - short attempts, nickel is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are recommended for trading within a range [1][11][14][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be weak in a sideways trend; soda ash's 01 contract follows a short - selling strategy; urea and methanol are expected to move sideways; polyolefins are expected to have a wide - range sideways movement [1][19][21][23]. - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to rebound in a sideways trend, apples are expected to move sideways, and PTA is expected to move sideways within a range [1][35][36]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended for shorting on rallies, corn is recommended for operation within the range of [2300, 2360], soybean meal is recommended for buying on dips, and oils are recommended for shorting on rallies [1][38][40][42]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products based on current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events. It suggests that different futures markets will show different trends, such as sideways movement, strengthening, or weakening, and gives corresponding trading suggestions [1][5][7]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". After the negotiation benefits come to an end, the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts, and domestic stock indices are expected to move sideways [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: With the continuous loosening of the capital market, rumors of continued inquiry and renewal of repurchase - style reverse repos, and the conclusion of Sino - US consultations, the market's buying power has further increased. The bond market is expected to strengthen sideways, and it is recommended to allocate on dips [5]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price of rebar futures fluctuated strongly on Wednesday. The fundamentals show that the apparent demand for rebar has declined, and the supply - demand is relatively balanced. In the later stage, there may be a slight accumulation of inventory. It is expected that the price will move weakly in a sideways trend, and it is recommended to observe or conduct short - term trading [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is supported by steel mill production and Sino - US negotiations. The supply and demand fundamentals have little impact, and it is more affected by macro - news. It is expected to move sideways, and it is recommended to observe [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal and coke remains loose. The short - term market is expected to continue to move sideways. Attention should be paid to factors such as coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand [8][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations have not made a breakthrough, but the US information is optimistic. The market expects the US to impose tariffs on copper, and the LME copper inventory has decreased. The domestic copper market has low inventory and weak consumption. It is expected to move sideways at a high level, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [11]. - **Aluminum**: Guinea's mine - end disturbances have not yet affected the current supply of bauxite, but the impact cannot be ignored. The downstream demand for aluminum is weakening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to strengthen observation [13]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is complex. The nickel ore market is tight, but the downstream demand is weak. The refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. It is expected to move weakly in a sideways trend, and it is recommended for observation or shorting on rallies [14]. - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is gradually improving, but the US tariff policy suppresses downstream demand. It is expected to move sideways, and it is recommended for trading within a range [16]. - **Gold and Silver**: US economic data shows resilience, and the tariff policy causes market concerns. The central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices of precious metals. It is expected that the prices will continue to move sideways, and it is recommended for cautious trading within a range [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: In the long - term, PVC demand is weak due to the real - estate drag, and the supply pressure is large. The inventory is currently being reduced, and the macro - factors are dominant. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to the tariff negotiation progress and domestic stimulus policies [20]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is limited. The non - aluminum off - season reduces the purchasing willingness for high - priced caustic soda. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend, and attention should be paid to factors such as alumina production and 6 - 8 month maintenance [22]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is affected by the strong oil price and is expected to continue to rebound, but the overall valuation is high, and the supply - demand is tending to be loose. It is recommended to short on rallies [25]. - **Rubber**: The terminal demand is weak, and the short - term fundamentals lack effective drivers. It is expected to move sideways, and attention should be paid to macro - news [26]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is limited. The overall supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to be weak in a sideways trend. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer start - up and urea device maintenance [29]. - **Methanol**: The supply is loose, the main downstream demand is okay, but there are maintenance plans for olefin devices, and the traditional downstream demand support is insufficient. It is expected to be weak in a sideways trend [31]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure remains, the demand enters the traditional off - season, and the inventory has different trends. It is expected to move sideways in a weak trend, and attention should be paid to downstream demand and domestic policies [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, the downstream market is not good, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the 01 contract [34]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, but the recent improvement in Sino - US relations is expected to cause the cotton price to rebound in a sideways trend [35]. - **Apples**: The trading atmosphere in the apple market is average, and the market is affected by factors such as the off - season and the impact of other fruits. It is expected to move sideways [35]. - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in oil prices and the weakening of downstream polyester demand, the PTA price is under short - term pressure. It is expected to move sideways within a range [36]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The short - term pig price is expected to be in a low - level sideways trend, and it is recommended to short on rallies [39]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. The medium - term supply is expected to increase, and the long - term supply pressure may be relieved. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [41]. - **Corn**: The short - term market supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. The medium - and long - term supply - demand tightens, but the price increase space is limited. It is recommended to operate within a range and pay attention to substitutes [43]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is affected by US soybean weather, and the medium - and long - term is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to buy on dips [45]. - **Oils**: The overall fundamentals of oils are mixed. Different oils have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to trade within a range and pay attention to the oil - meal ratio short - selling strategy [50].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small - cap and stable large - cap". The positive news from the negotiation has ended, and the technology sector related to IM has positive catalysts. Domestic stock indices may fluctuate. The US 5 - month CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling short of expectations for the fourth consecutive month. China and the US have basically reached an agreement framework. The US Treasury Secretary said the inflation data was "very good" and there were other related statements [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Wednesday, the bond market continued to be favorable, with yields of bonds of various maturities declining slightly. Overnight funds returned below 1.4%, dispelling market concerns. Although the equity market strengthened on Wednesday, the bond market was not much affected. Currently, the two markets are trading their own main lines. The bond market is benefiting from the resonance of fundamentals, funds, and the approaching end of the supply peak. Be patient with the subsequent decline in interest rates [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Allocate on dips [4]. 4. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.89%, SSE 50 rose 0.79%, CSI 500 rose 0.75%, and CSI 1000 rose 0.63% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.06%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.23%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.02% [9]. 5. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a possible fluctuating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a fluctuating trend [10]. 6. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3878.80 | 0.89 | 69002 | 115340 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2682.40 | 0.79 | 35407 | 44558 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5761.20 | 0.75 | 47295 | 89802 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6144.00 | 0.63 | 112327 | 144803 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.05 | 0.06 | 47080 | 187358 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.19 | 0.07 | 38116 | 150845 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.44 | 0.23 | 55029 | 105150 | | 2025 - 06 - 11 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.46 | 0.02 | 23987 | 119103 | [12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For PVC, the rating implies a weak outlook with a forecast of weak and volatile trading, suggesting a cautious approach [2]. - For caustic soda, the mid - term outlook is weak, recommending short - selling the 09 contract [3]. - For styrene, it is recommended to short on rebounds due to high valuation and loose supply - demand [5]. - For soda ash, a short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [12]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall energy and chemical market is influenced by a combination of factors including macro - economic conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. Each product has its own unique supply - demand dynamics, cost factors, and market drivers [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On June 11, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4832 yuan/ton (+22). The long - term demand is weak due to real - estate drag and export constraints. Supply pressure is high with new investment plans in Q3. The market is macro - driven, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile, with attention on the 4850 yuan/ton resistance level [2]. Caustic Soda - On June 11, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2332 yuan/ton (+8). Supply is high with some new installations expected, and there are mid - June to early - July maintenance periods. Demand from the alumina industry has a weakening restart expectation, and non - aluminum demand is in a slow season. The price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the 09 contract recommended for short - selling, focusing on the 2400 yuan/ton resistance [3]. Styrene - On June 11, the styrene contract was at 7349 yuan/ton (+3). Short - term it may rebound due to strong oil prices, but with high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply - demand, it is recommended to short on rebounds, with the price range of 6900 - 7700 yuan/ton [5]. Rubber - On June 11, the rubber market oscillated. The price has rebounded due to macro - sentiment but lacks fundamental support. Short - term, it is expected to oscillate, with the focus on macro - news [6]. Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 1.48% to 1667 yuan/ton. Supply is high, demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors is weak, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to continue weakening, with the 09 contract operating in the 1650 - 1850 yuan/ton range [7][8]. Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 0.18% to 2282 yuan/ton. Supply is abundant, the main downstream demand (methanol - to - olefins) is okay but has some planned maintenance, and traditional downstream demand is weak. Inventory is rising, and the 09 contract is expected to trade in the 2180 - 2300 yuan/ton range [9]. Polyolefins - On June 11, the L and PP contracts closed at 7102 yuan/ton and 6960 yuan/ton respectively. Supply is under pressure with capacity expansion in June - July. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the L2509 in the 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton range and PP2509 in the 6850 - 7200 yuan/ton range [10][11]. Soda Ash - The spot market is weak, with prices falling. Supply is increasing with the resumption of production from maintenance. Downstream demand from the glass industry is poor, and inventory is accumulating. The upside potential of the futures is limited, and a short position is recommended for the 01 contract [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced, and it may accumulate inventory slightly in the later stage. The futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to low valuation and a shift to looser supply - demand [1]. - Iron ore is supported by continuous steel mill production and negotiations. The price is mainly affected by macro news, and the port inventory is expected to continue to decline. The iron ore futures are expected to fluctuate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. - The coking coal market supply is in a loose pattern, and the short - term market may continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to coal mine inventory, coking enterprise profit, and steel terminal demand [3]. - The coke supply - demand pattern remains loose. Although supply has a marginal contraction, demand support is weak. The short - term market may continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Rebar - On Wednesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated strongly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3130 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 10 - contract basis was 139 (-7) [1]. - Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The production of rebar decreased for two consecutive weeks, and inventory depletion slowed down [1]. - Currently, the rebar futures price has fallen near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. The price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 724 yuan/wet ton (+55), the Platts 62% index was 95.75 dollars/ton (+0.80), and the PBF basis was 57 yuan/ton (-3) [1]. - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,839.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104.04 [1]. - The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the futures are expected to fluctuate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. Coking Coal - The supply of coking coal is in a loose pattern. Some coal mines have staged production cuts, but most maintain normal production. The procurement of the intermediate link is cautious, and the signing of coal mines is average [3]. - The downstream procurement of Mongolian coal is cautious, and the actual transactions at the port are cold. After the third round of coke price cuts, coking enterprises maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy, and steel mills mainly purchase on a rigid - demand basis [3]. - The coking coal market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to coal mine inventory depletion, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand [3]. Coke - The production of coking enterprises shows a differentiated pattern. Most maintain normal operation, but there is some passive production reduction due to profit pressure and environmental inspections, and the overall start - up level has declined [3]. - The steel market is entering the off - season, terminal demand is limited, and steel mills' rigid demand for coke exists but with insufficient growth. Some steel mills purchase cautiously and replenish inventory as needed [3]. - The coke market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. Industry News - From January to May, the production and sales of automobiles were 12.826 million and 12.748 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 12.7% and 10.9%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 45.2% and 44% [6]. - From June 9th to 10th, the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. The two sides reached a consensus on the measure framework for implementing the important consensus of the leaders' call on June 5th [6]. - As of the end of May, more than 1.6 trillion yuan of replacement bonds had been issued nationwide, completing over 80% of the 2 - trillion - yuan stock implicit debt replacement quota for this year [6].

1. Investment Ratings The report does not mention any industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - The current situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with each product facing unique supply - demand dynamics and price trends. The overall market is in a state of multi - factor influence, and prices are expected to fluctuate in the short to medium term [1][2][5][6][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Product 3.1. Pig - **Short - term**: On June 12, the national pig price showed a pattern of decline in the north and stability in the south. The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is under pressure. It is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation, with the 07 contract having a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 12800 - 13000; the 09 contract having a pressure level of 14000 - 14200 and a support level of 13100 - 13300; the 11 contract having a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 13000 - 13200. The strategy is to wait for a rebound to the pressure level and then short [1]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: From June to September 2024, the supply is increasing, and in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure is still large, and the long - term price rebound is under pressure [1]. 3.2. Egg - **Short - term**: As the rainy season approaches, egg demand seasonally weakens, and the supply is relatively sufficient, so the egg price support is insufficient. The 08 and 09 contracts are mainly treated as bearish, waiting for a rebound to short. The 08 contract should focus on the 3650 - 3750 pressure level, and the 09 contract on the 3770 - 3820 pressure level [2]. - **Medium - term**: From July to August 2025, there will be more newly - opened laying hens, and the long - term supply increase trend may be difficult to reverse [2]. - **Long - term**: In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may be alleviated, and attention should be paid to the elimination and chicken disease situations in the third quarter [2]. 3.3. Oil - **Palm oil**: In the short term, the 08 contract is in a dilemma of rising or falling, and is expected to fluctuate in the 3700 - 3800 range. In the long run, the trend of inventory accumulation in Malaysia remains unchanged, and it is difficult to provide continuous upward momentum [5]. - **Soybean oil**: In the short term, the 07 contract of US soybeans is expected to oscillate widely in the 1030 - 1080 range. In China, the inventory of soybean oil is expected to increase. In the long run, the price decline is limited due to factors such as the tightening of new - crop soybean supply [6]. - **Rapeseed oil**: ICE rapeseed is expected to rise moderately in the short term. In China, the rapeseed oil price is supported by the expectation of supply tightening after June. The inventory is currently at a historically high level, but it is expected to decrease in the far - month [7]. - **Overall**: The overall fundamentals of oils are mixed, and the trend is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. From the third quarter, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to oscillate in the short term, with operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8300, and 9000 - 9500 respectively. Attention can be paid to the strategy of narrowing the oil - meal ratio [7][8]. 3.4. Soybean Meal - **Short - term**: US soybeans are affected by weather, and the price is expected to be strong. In China, from June to August, the supply of soybeans and soybean meal will increase, which will limit the increase of near - month contracts and spot prices [8]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The cost increases and the influence of weather disturbances make the price trend stable and strong. The M2509 contract is mainly long on dips, and attention should be paid to the support performance at 2950 - 2980 [8]. 3.5. Corn - **Short - term**: The market supply - demand game intensifies, and the corn price has support. The spot is strong, and the futures price oscillates [9]. - **Medium - to - long - term**: The supply - demand relationship tightens marginally, which drives the price up, but the upward space is limited by substitutes. The 07 contract oscillates at a high level (2280 - 2400), and attention can be paid to the 7 - 9 positive spread [9]. 3.6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the trading prices and price changes of various products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [10].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 宏观方面，一是 6 月美国国债到期，市场存担忧情绪，二是国内宏观利 好政策出台，央行在 6 月 5 日开展 1 万亿元买断式逆回购，来缓冲 市场资金流动性，三是中美关系异动，6 月 5 日晚中美首脑 3 个月内 第一次通电话，预计特朗普即将访问中国，并且启动新一轮中美贸易谈 判，四是 6 月 5 日欧洲央行降息，五是 CFTC 基金持仓净空恢复维持 2.94 万手。基本面来看，国内目前供需形势，本年度商业库存预测 8 月底为 155 万吨，去年是 214 万吨，23 年是 163 万吨，今年显然 商业库存偏紧。对于 09 合约，显然有支撑，所以现货基差偏强，棉花 短期基本面供应是偏紧的，在国内通缩和出口受阻的形势下，棉花整体 表现震荡抗跌的形态。新季度全球今年丰产概率增大，新疆丰产，预计 产量 720-750 万吨，巴西丰产至 395 万吨，美国干旱指数出现拐点 向下，预计单产提升，虽然面积减少，可能产量跟与去年保持持平。消 费端，可变性较大，主要取决于美国对等关税的态度以及美联储降息时 间，跟中国宏观持有积极态度，何时形成共振。短中期来看，进入 6、 7 月为对等 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to maintain high - level oscillations due to factors such as the uncertain outcome of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, weak domestic economic data, the transition from peak season to off - season, and low inventory [1]. - Aluminum prices are affected by the Sino - US talks and the approaching off - season. It is recommended to closely monitor the results of the Sino - US talks [2]. - Nickel is expected to experience weak oscillations in the medium - to - long term due to cost support and supply surplus [3][5]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to conduct range trading, while paying attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of June 11, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.2% to 79,290 yuan/ton. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough, but the US side is optimistic. The market expects the US to impose tariffs on copper, which has led to a halving of LME copper inventory in the past three months. The domestic spot market has low downstream consumption, low social inventory, and a narrowing BACK spread. The negative low level of copper ore smelting TC exerts continuous pressure on the supply outlook [1]. Aluminum - As of June 11, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 1.25% to 20,250 yuan/ton. Mining disruptions in Guinea will impact the import volume of bauxite in July. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has declined, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased. The 232 steel and aluminum tariffs in the US have increased, and the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging [2]. Nickel - As of June 11, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract rose 0.11% to 121,790 yuan/ton. The US PMI is expanding, and the euro - zone PMI is contracting. Domestically, the LPR has been lowered. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the downstream nickel - iron is in a loss state. The refined nickel has a surplus, and the LME inventory has increased. The demand for stainless steel is average, and the price of nickel sulfate is pushed up by cost but has limited demand [3][5]. Tin - As of June 11, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.69% to 265,530 yuan/ton. In May, domestic refined tin production decreased, and in April, tin concentrate imports increased. The supply of tin ore is gradually improving, and the inventory has decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, but the US tariff policy may suppress downstream demand [6]. Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Domestic spot copper prices rose slightly. Sellers were reluctant to cut prices, and buyers were waiting and watching, resulting in a stalemate in the market [7]. Aluminum - Spot aluminum market transactions improved. Sellers were reluctant to sell due to low inventory, and buyers were less willing to chase up prices. Long - term orders supported trading activity, and the market showed a situation of more buying than selling in the afternoon [8]. Alumina - Spot market transactions were light. Sellers maintained a price - holding strategy, while buyers were waiting and watching, resulting in poor transactions [9]. Zinc - Spot zinc market prices fell. Sellers were forced to cut prices, and buyers only made purchases to meet rigid demand, with low overall purchasing willingness [10]. Lead - Spot lead market prices rose slightly. Traders' discount quotes narrowed, and they were waiting for price corrections to replenish inventory. Recycled lead enterprises were more willing to sell, and transactions were concentrated on low - priced goods [11][12]. Nickel - Spot nickel market prices fell. Market transactions were cautious, and trading was light [13]. Tin - Spot tin market prices rose. Market transactions were cautious, and trading was light [14]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 373 tons to 33,373 tons; LME copper inventory decreased by 950 tons to 119,450 tons. SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 75 tons to 47,468 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 357,600 tons. SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,075 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons to 132,575 tons. SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons to 42,597 tons; LME lead inventory decreased by 4,500 tons to 273,525 tons. SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 72 tons to 21,113 tons; LME nickel inventory decreased by 618 tons to 197,508 tons. SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 56 tons to 6,810 tons; LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 2,365 tons [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the overall fundamentals of domestic and international oils are mixed. The prices in June are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. The inventories of soybean and palm oils are expected to increase, and the rapeseed oil inventory will remain high, forcing the basis of oils to be weak. In the long - term, starting from July, due to the decrease in the sown area of new - season soybeans and rapeseeds in North America and possible weather speculation, the prices of oils are expected to stop falling and rebound from the third quarter. [2][48] - For trading strategies, the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils will fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8300, and 9000 - 9500 respectively, and operate within these ranges. For arbitrage, the oil - meal ratios of domestic soybean and rapeseed are at historical highs, and summer is the off - season for oil consumption. One can focus on the strategy of narrowing the oil - meal ratio of the 09 contracts of soybean and rapeseed oils. [2][48] 3. Summaries According to Related Categories Palm Oil - **Short - term Performance and Reasons**: Since May, domestic and international palm oils have been relatively resistant to decline. In Malaysia, the May MPOB report showed that production and exports continued to rise, but the production increase was limited while exports had double - digit growth, resulting in the ending inventory being only 1.99 million tons, less than the expected 2 million tons. In June, exports remained strong, with a 8.1 - 32.69% month - on - month increase from June 1 - 10, and production also continued to recover. In Indonesia, in March, production and demand both increased, but exports and domestic consumption increased more than production, causing the ending inventory to drop to 2.04 million tons. The limited inventory pressure in the producing areas is the main reason for the resistant decline of palm oil. [5][6] - **Future Influencing Factors**: India's palm oil import demand and Indonesia's B40 policy will also hinder the inventory accumulation in the producing areas. India's low inventory and the reduction of import taxes will increase its palm oil imports. Although Indonesia's B40 policy has not been fully implemented, it has promoted the year - on - year growth of palm oil consumption for biodiesel. [12] - **Domestic Situation**: From late April to early May, China made a large number of purchases, and the palm oil arrivals in May and June are expected to be more than 200,000 tons. The inventory in June has a strong rebound expectation. As of the week of June 6, the domestic palm oil inventory has rebounded to 372,600 tons. However, the import profit has turned negative since late May, and the arrivals from July - September are expected to be much lower, so the supply in the far - month may tighten again. [14] - **Long - term Outlook**: The palm oil production season in Malaysia is expected to last until October. The overall production in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2025 is expected to remain at the same level as last year or increase slightly. Before the inventory in Malaysia reaches its annual high in September - October, the inventory accumulation expectation will continue to put pressure on the price. In the short - term, the price has support and shows a wide - range fluctuation. In the long - term, before September - October, the price is likely to show a weak - range fluctuation. [16][17] Soybean Oil - **Current Market Stage and Price Trend**: Soybean oil is at the end of the transition from the South American market to the North American market. The abundant supply of South American soybeans and the smooth progress of US soybean sowing limit the upward space of soybean - related products, but the tightening of the 2025/2026 US and global soybean supply - demand situation and the uncertain weather in July - August also prevent the price from falling sharply. In June, the price is likely to fluctuate. [18] - **Impact of US Biodiesel Policy**: The new biodiesel policy is generally favorable for the future biodiesel demand of US soybean oil, but there are uncertainties in the degree of benefit and some details. The new RVO for 2026 and the extension of the 45Z tax credit policy are positive, but factors such as Senate review and small - refinery exemptions may have a negative impact. [19] - **Global Soybean Market Fundamentals**: In South America, the 2024/2025 soybean production in Brazil and Argentina is expected to increase, and the export pressure will gradually ease after July. In the US, as of the week of June 8, the sowing progress of 2025/2026 soybeans is faster than the five - year average, but there are potential drought and high - temperature risks in July - August, and the predicted yield also has great uncertainty. The biodiesel demand for US soybean oil is likely to increase year - on - year, but the export situation is uncertain. [20][21] - **Domestic Situation**: Currently, it is the peak period of Brazilian soybean arrivals in China. The soybean arrivals from May - August are expected to be around 10 million tons, and the soybean and soybean oil inventories are expected to increase. However, the purchase of US soybeans in the future is uncertain, and the slow purchase progress for the far - month may lead to supply uncertainty in the third and fourth quarters. [35] - **Long - term Outlook**: In the short - term, soybean oil will continue to fluctuate widely. In the long - term, with the tightening of the new - season global and US soybean supply - demand situation, possible weather speculation, and the decrease in domestic imports, soybean oil is expected to stop falling and rebound in the third quarter. [38] Rapeseed Oil - **Short - term Performance and Reasons**: Recently, rapeseed oil has been relatively weak among the three major domestic oils because of the expectation of improved China - Canada trade relations. The communication between the two countries on June 6 made the market expect that China may relax the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed and the anti - dumping duties on rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal. [39] - **Limitations of Price Decline**: The decline of rapeseed oil price is limited. The tight supply - demand situation of old - season Canadian rapeseed and the lack of import profit in China will restrict the import of Canadian rapeseed in the third quarter. The current inventory of old - season Canadian rapeseed is low, and the import profit has been significantly declining since mid - March. [40] - **Domestic Inventory and Supply Situation**: The domestic rapeseed oil inventory remains high. As of the week of June 6, it was still 829,000 tons. However, the import of rapeseed is expected to decrease from June, which is expected to help the domestic rapeseed oil inventory start to decline from June - August. [42][43] - **New - Season Situation**: The sowing progress of 2025/2026 rapeseed in Canada is relatively fast, but there are potential drought risks in some areas, and the predicted yield increase is small. The Australian rapeseed production in 2025/2026 is expected to decrease by 6% year - on - year. [43] - **Long - term Outlook**: In the short - term, the decline of rapeseed oil is limited, and the 09 contract has strong support at 9000. In the long - term, before the new - season Canadian rapeseed is harvested in October, the supply of old - season rapeseed is limited. Coupled with possible weather speculation in July - August and domestic rapeseed inventory reduction, rapeseed oil is expected to perform relatively strongly from July. [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with limited upside and downside space [1] - The aluminum price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to strengthen observation and pay attention to the progress of China - US dialogue [2] - The nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long term, with limited downside space due to firm costs [3][5] - The tin price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for interval trading, with attention paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6] Summaries by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.27% to 78,880 yuan/ton. Tariffs and the China - US leaders' call brought positive expectations. The domestic refined copper output remained high, but supply disruptions and low TC supported the price. Social inventory was stable at a low level, consumption declined, and the upside space of the copper price was limited. However, due to low inventory and supply disruptions, the downside space was also limited [1] Aluminum - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell 0.12% to 20,050 yuan/ton. Guinea's mine - end disruptions will affect the arrival volume of imported bauxite in July. Alumina's operating capacity increased, and inventory decreased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was flat. The downstream开工率 decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be weak [2] Nickel - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai nickel fell 1.06% to 121,390 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia was tight, and the price was firm. Nickel - iron had a profit loss, and the demand for stainless steel was average. The refined nickel was in surplus, and the price of nickel sulfate was strong due to cost. The nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly [3][5] Tin - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai tin rose 0.21% to 263,420 yuan/ton. In May, domestic refined tin production decreased, and imports and exports changed. The semiconductor industry was expected to recover, and the inventory decreased. The supply of tin ore improved, but the impact of tariffs on downstream consumption needed attention. The tin price is expected to oscillate [6] Spot Transaction Summary - Copper: Domestic spot copper prices rose, but high prices suppressed restocking, and transactions were light [7] - Aluminum: Spot aluminum transaction prices fell, and the market was weak, with few transactions [8] - Alumina: Spot prices were stable, trading activity declined, and transactions were restricted [9] - Zinc: Spot zinc prices fell, and transactions were light, with low procurement willingness [10] - Lead: Spot lead prices rose, and traders were more willing to hold up prices, with cautious restocking [11][12] - Nickel: Spot nickel prices fell, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand [13] - Tin: Spot tin prices rose, and high - price transactions were light [14] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE: Copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while zinc and lead futures warehouse receipts increased [16] - LME: Copper, tin, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased [16]