金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美国财长贝森特"救市"：没证据表明主权国家抛售美债，有必要可以加大 美债回购，秋季将讨论下一任美联储主席。美国商务部启动对芯片与药品进 口调查。中国 3 月按美元计出口同比增长 12.4%，进口下降 4.3%。美财长表 态增加市场对美债的信心。关税博弈仍多，股市成交缩量，纳斯达克中国金 龙指数上涨，股指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 周一上午公布的出口数据表现仍然向好，但市场对此的反应并不强烈。市场 的交易主线还是利率行至低位后的节奏调整问题。尤其是经济专家谈到降准 降息的条件，打消了市场对近期很快落地降准降息的预期，中短端调整更为 显著。展望后市，继续关注市场利率补上 7 日跳空下行缺口的可能性。另外， 本周开始临近税期，继续关注资金面对交易节奏的扰动。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 研究咨询部 2025-04-15 公司资质 金融期货团队 震荡运行 国债 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 ◆ 核心观点： 股指 ◆ 市场回顾： 沪深 300 股指主力合约期货涨 0.05%，上证 50 股指主力合约期货涨 0.43%，中证 500 股指主力合 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 4 月 15 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： 区间运行，建议区间交易 | | | ◆铝： | 适度低多 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： | 区间操作 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间操作 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： 看涨期权空头持有。 | | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 剧烈震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡走强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： 近月支持较强，远月逢高偏空 | | | ◆玉米： | 逢低做多 | | ◆豆粕： ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格窄幅震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3170 元/吨，较 前一日持平，05 合约基差 123（+3），特朗普豁免部分产品"对等关 税"，市场情绪好转，不过后期仍有可能被征收特定行业关税。中美贸易 摩擦中，就钢材而言，关税对直接出口影响不大，2024 年中国对美钢材 出口量 89 万吨，仅占出口总量的 0.8%，不过间接影响相对较大，根据 Mysteel 测算，去年我国钢铁间接出口量达到 1.4 亿吨，其中对美国出 口达到 1000 多万吨，叠加部分转出口也受到影响，因此后期钢材直接 与间接出口均会受到一定冲击。国内除了关税反击以外，是否会出台财 政与货币政策需要进一步观察。短期来看，行情跟随关税政策上下波动， 暂时观望为宜。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿期货价格窄幅震荡。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 764 元/湿吨 （+2）。普氏 62%指数 99.45 美元/吨（+1.10），月均 99.92 美元/吨。 PBF 基差 102 元/吨（+4）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,434.9 万吨，环+41.7。45 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff war between the US and China has increased the probability of a global economic recession, causing significant short - term impacts on commodity prices. However, as the marginal impact of tariffs weakens, metal prices have shown different trends. Different trading strategies are recommended for various metals based on their fundamentals and market conditions [2]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - As of April 14, the Shanghai copper main 05 contract rose 2.06% to 76,310 yuan/ton. The tariff war has a complex impact on copper prices. Although short - term fundamentals are still resilient, the medium - to - long - term impact of tariffs may lower market demand and the price center. It is recommended to conduct range trading as the Shanghai copper is expected to maintain a wide - range, relatively strong oscillation next week [2]. - In the spot market, copper prices rebounded, but downstream buyers were hesitant due to high prices, leading to a sluggish trading atmosphere [7]. - Copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,805 tons to 89,369 tons, while LME copper inventory decreased by 950 tons to 207,825 tons [16]. Aluminum - As of April 14, the Shanghai aluminum main 06 contract rose 0.31% to 19,685 yuan/ton. The supply at the ore end is improving, and the alumina operating capacity has decreased. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased slightly. The downstream processing enterprise start - up rate has declined, and social inventories of aluminum ingots and rods have decreased. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy changes [3]. - In the spot market, there is still a bearish sentiment. Sellers are eager to sell, while buyers are waiting for lower prices, resulting in poor trading [8]. - Aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,531 tons to 102,713 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,075 tons to 440,150 tons [16]. Nickel - As of April 14, the Shanghai nickel main 05 contract rose 1.79% to 123,090 yuan/ton. The US tariff policy has damaged the global trade environment, and the cost of nickel ore has increased. Although there is an oversupply in the nickel market, the price is near the cost line. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5]. - In the spot market, as nickel prices rebounded, downstream buyers were reluctant to trade due to high prices [13]. - Nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,183 tons to 25,647 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 120 tons to 204,372 tons [16]. Tin - As of April 14, the Shanghai tin main 05 contract rose 3.02% to 261,850 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are strong expectations of mine resumption. The downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which may support demand. It is recommended to conduct range trading with the reference range of 240,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for the Shanghai tin 05 contract, and pay attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [6]. - In the spot market, the price of tin increased [14]. - Tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 294 tons to 9,524 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 3,090 tons [16]. Zinc - In the spot market, the short - term trading activity has increased. The balance between sellers' price - holding intention and buyers' rigid demand has maintained a good trading interaction [10]. - Zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 74 tons to 6,883 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,050 tons to 117,300 tons [16]. Lead - In the spot market, downstream buyers mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and consumption is generally stable [12]. - Lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,391 tons to 58,523 tons, and LME lead inventory increased by 9,900 tons to 257,325 tons [16].

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 4 月 14 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 4951 元/吨（+21），常州市场价 4840 元/吨（+20），主力基差-111 元/吨（-1），广州市场价 4940 元/吨（+20）， 杭州市场价 4900 元/吨（+60）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2550 （-100）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下 持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比小（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性 恢复，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。经过上周贸易战激烈期后，当前宏 观悲观情绪有所缓解，PVC 估值偏低，盘面存弱反弹。重点关注关税谈 判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激 政策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化，盘 面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱： 4 月 14 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 2401 元/吨（ ...

4 月 15 日山东德州报价 3.35 元/斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/斤；北京报价 3.66 元/斤，较上日涨 0.11 元/斤。短期节后补货需求支撑蛋价止跌反弹，不过 4 月换羽鸡开产及前期补苗开产陆续增多，养殖端惜淘，鸡蛋供应较为充足， 叠加气温偏高不利鸡蛋保存，或抑制蛋价上涨幅度，关注渠道采购积极性。 长期来看，高养殖利润驱动 24 年 12 月-25 年 2 月补栏积极性高，对应二 季度新开产蛋鸡较多，供应持续增加，不过在鸡苗供应偏紧、鸡龄结构偏老 背景下，需要关注陷入亏损后老鸡淘汰出清对阶段性供应的影响，整体高补 苗量下，下半年供应预计维持增势。当前盘面 05 几乎平水现货，短期现货 涨幅或受限，谨慎追涨，等待现货指引；中长期供应压力增加，远月估值承 压，关注近端淘汰及原料成本波动扰动。策略上 05 二次限仓，波动加剧， 谨慎追高，关注 3150-3170 压力；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，关注饲料端及 淘汰扰动。关注淘鸡及换羽开产、各环节库存。（数据来源：蛋 e 网、卓创 资讯） 饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 4 月 15 日辽宁现货 14.6-15.3 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is under pressure to decline. Domestic cotton supply and demand are basically sufficient but may be slightly tight. The sales pressure of Xinjiang ginning mills has been released by about 60%, and 40% remains unpriced. Resources are concentrated in a few major traders. The domestic cotton industry has over - capacity, limiting cotton price increases. The tariff policy adjustment and the Sino - US trade war have a negative impact on cotton prices in the short - to - medium term. In the second half of the year, potential cotton production increases in Xinjiang and Brazil are also bearish factors [1]. - PTA is under pressure to decline. The cost - end crude oil provides poor support, production is decreasing, and demand growth is limited due to factors such as polyester production cuts and poor export orders, so the price may continue to fall [4]. - Ethylene glycol is in a range - bound consolidation. The low international crude oil price provides poor cost support, but the expected reduction in imports and the current good polyester start - up rate support the price, and it is expected to oscillate between 4250 - 4350 [4]. - Short - fiber is in a range - bound and weakening trend. Weak raw material prices and expected decline in terminal textile demand make it difficult for the short - fiber market to have positive changes in the short term [5]. - Sugar is in a range - bound adjustment. The international sugar market has short - term supply tightness, and the domestic sugar market is affected by multiple factors such as import data, sales progress, and macro - environment changes. It is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern, and the price may be boosted in the future with increased demand [6]. - Apples are in a range - bound and strengthening trend. The overall inventory of apples is decreasing, the sales are good, and the price is expected to strengthen, but macro - risks need to be monitored [7]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Macro Key Information - In the first quarter of 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports reached 10.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Exports were 6.13 trillion yuan, up 6.9%, and imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, down 6% year - on - year. The month - on - month import and export growth rate showed a rising trend [8]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of April 7, the spot price of PTA in the East China market declined. The cost and demand expectations are weak due to the tariff policy. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate reached 80.48% last week, showing an upward trend [10][12]. Cotton - On April 14, the China Cotton Price Index was 14293 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the 2024/25 season, India's cotton production decreased, imports increased, and exports decreased. The end - of - period inventory decreased year - on - year [11]. Ethylene Glycol - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 66.01%, with an increase of 0.31% month - on - month. The weekly output was 39.69 million tons, showing an upward trend [13]. Short - fiber - As of April 3, the domestic short - fiber weekly output was 15.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.19 million tons month - on - month. The cost was in a weak oscillation, and the profit was slightly repaired [13]. Sugar - It is expected that in the second half of March, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil will decrease year - on - year. Ukraine's sugar imports and exports from January to March 2025 decreased compared with the same period in 2024. The Meng'a Sugar Factory completed its 2024/25 crushing season [13]. Apples - As of April 9, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 398.63 million tons, a decrease of 38.90 million tons from the previous week. The inventory in Shandong and Shaanxi is at a low level in recent years [14]. Important Data Tracking of Each Variety - No specific data content provided, only figure descriptions such as cotton price trends, PTA futures price trends, etc.

报告要点 在 A 股市场三十余年的发展历程中，底部震荡行情始终牵动着投 资者的神经。 本文将以四个标志性历史阶段为观察样本——2012 年 "四万亿" 刺激政策退出引发的估值重构、2015 年极端波动引发的熔断机制实 践、2018 年全球经贸格局重塑带来的系统性冲击，以及 2020 年突发 公共卫生事件引发的市场应激反应，深入解析股指期货在不同压力测 试场景中的价格传导机制与风险对冲功能表现。 2025 年 4 月 7 日全球金融市场受 "对等关税"政策冲击，当日 四大股指期货主力合约呈现深度贴水状态，其中中证 500 和中证 1000 期货合约贴水幅度尤为显著。4 月 10 日后市场情绪出现边际修 复，四大期货合约贴水幅度收窄。另一方面，四大股指期货成交量及 持仓量同期并未显著改善，叠加从技术形态上来说四大股指期货向上 补缺口动能稍显不足，市场短期震荡概率较大，建议关注短期市场回 调的套利机会。 2025-4-14 公司资质 市场底部时期股指期货策略 金融期货 | 专题报告 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融衍生品团队 研究员： 彭博 咨询电话：027-657771 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding the industry investment ratings is provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of black - related products are mainly influenced by tariff games, showing a generally weak - running trend. For different products, the market situations and investment strategies vary [4][34][60][108]. - For rebar, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading due to factors such as tariff impacts on exports and insufficient peak - season demand [4][5]. - For hot - rolled coils, the price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Short - term trading is recommended as the supply - demand relationship is in adjustment, affected by international games and domestic policies [34][35]. - For coking coal and coke, the coking coal price may be under pressure to oscillate, and the coke market shows a weak supply - demand balance. A neutral wait - and - see approach is recommended [60]. - For iron ore, considering the current situation and future expectations, it is expected to have a small rebound or maintain an oscillating trend in the near term, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is suggested [108]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see or short - term trading. The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to tariff games, low probability of large - scale domestic stimulus policies in the short term, and potential peak demand [4][5]. - **Market Review**: The spot price first decreased and then increased, with the Hangzhou third - grade rebar at 3170 yuan/ton last Friday, down 70 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The futures price opened lower and oscillated weakly, with the rebar 05 contract at 3050 yuan/ton, down 114 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The basis strengthened, with the rebar 05 contract basis at 120 yuan [15]. - **Steel Mill Profits**: The immediate profit of steel mills declined slightly. The long - process profit was about 120 yuan/ton in East China, and the short - process flat - electricity profit was about - 118 yuan/ton. The profitability of 247 sample steel mills was 53.68% (- 1.73%) [19]. - **Futures Valuation**: The rebar futures price dropped near the electric - furnace valley - electricity cost, higher than the long - process cost, with a static valuation at a moderately low level [21]. - **Supply - Demand Pattern**: Last week, the rebar production increased by 3.72 tons to 232.37 tons, the apparent demand increased by 2.99 tons to 252.68 tons, and the inventory decreased by 20.31 tons to 777.76 tons [29]. 3.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term trading. The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation as the supply - demand relationship is in adjustment, affected by international games and domestic policies [34][35]. - **Valuation**: The spot price increased, with the Shanghai hot - rolled coil 4.75 at 3250 yuan/t last Friday, down 100 yuan/t from the previous week. The futures price oscillated strongly, with the hot - rolled coil 10 contract at 3242 yuan/t, down 118 yuan/t from the previous week. The basis strengthened by 18 yuan, with the hot - rolled coil 10 contract basis at 28 yuan. The cost decreased, and the profit remained stable, with the steel - union hot - rolled coil profit at about - 8 yuan/t (18 yuan/t), and the profitability of 247 sample steel mills at 53.68% (- 1.73%) [39][40]. - **Drivers**: The output of five major steel products increased, while the hot - rolled coil output decreased. The demand gradually weakened, with the steel - union hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreasing. The inventory showed continuous destocking, but there was still pressure on factory inventory accumulation [44][46][52]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - **Investment Strategy**: Neutral wait - and - see. For coking coal, the short - term price may be under pressure to oscillate. For coke, the market shows a weak supply - demand balance, and it is difficult for price increases to be implemented in the short term [60]. - **Coking Coal**: The domestic coking coal spot price decreased, and the overseas price also showed a downward trend. The basis widened, and the production in major producing areas gradually recovered. The upstream inventory continued to be destocked. The total inventory was 2727.22 million tons (+ 12.80), with the mine inventory at 335.50 million tons (- 4.20), the downstream inventory at 1745.32 million tons (+ 24.18), and the 16 - port inventory at 646.40 million tons (- 7.18) [66][71][83]. - **Coke**: The spot price stabilized. The basis converged. The daily average pig - iron output increased significantly, and the overall inventory fluctuated little. The total inventory was 1052.59 million tons (+ 0.97), with the full - sample coking plant inventory at 107.30 tons (- 10.17), the downstream steel - mill inventory at 667.99 tons (- 4.88), and the 18 - port inventory at 277.30 million tons (+ 16.02) [87][90][102]. 3.4 Iron Ore - **Investment Strategy**: Short on rebounds. The price is expected to have a small rebound or maintain an oscillating trend in the near term, entering a stage of expected increased supply and decreased demand in the future [108]. - **Market Review**: The spot price decreased, with the Qingdao Port's various - grade iron ore discount - to - futures prices down. The futures price also decreased, with the iron ore 09 contract at 708 yuan/ton last Friday, down 35.5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 5 - 9 spread widened [109][124]. - **Supply**: Domestically, the production increased, with the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises at 63.38%, up 0.61%, the daily average iron - concentrate output at 49.49 million tons, up 0.48, and the inventory at 109.43 million tons, up 2.5. Overseas, the Australian shipment decreased, with the total Australian and Brazilian iron - ore shipment at 2393.1 million tons, down 254.7 million tons week - on - week [130][136]. - **Port Situation**: The arrival volume decreased, the number of ships in port increased, and the dredging volume remained at a high level. The port inventory decreased, with the 45 - port iron - ore inventory at 14341.02 million tons, down 127.39 million tons week - on - week [141][142]. - **Steel - Mill Demand**: The pig - iron output has not reached its peak. The profitability of 247 steel enterprises was 53.25%, unchanged week - on - week. The daily average pig - iron output was 236.26 million tons, up 5.67 million tons week - on - week. The furnace - charge ratio was sinter ore 73.73%, pellet ore 14.16%, and lump ore 12.11% [151].

2025-04-14 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 关税战影响边际减弱 有色金属急挫后宽幅震荡 有色金属基础周报 走势状态 行情观点 操作建议 | 美国对等关税政策超预期，中国随之全面反制，美挑起的关税战加大了全球经济衰退的概率，各类资产遭受无差别抛售，重要大宗商品价格短期重 | 挫。随着中美关税已加无可加，边际影响减弱以及特朗普政策的反复，铜价大幅反弹。基本面上，价格回落，下游企业逢低补库积极，订单增长明 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 显，国内库存下降表现较为明显。铜精矿供应也依旧紧张，现货TC继续在负值区间下探，再生铜采购难度也在加大，但副产品价格高位，国内产 | 急挫后反弹 | 铜 | 区间交易 | 出的预期依然较高。不过卫星监测数据显示，3月全球铜冶炼活动大幅下降，平均有12.6%的 ...