棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 宏观方面，一是 6 月美国国债到期，市场存担忧情绪，二是国内宏观利 好政策出台，央行在 6 月 5 日开展 1 万亿元买断式逆回购，来缓冲 市场资金流动性，三是中美关系异动，6 月 5 日晚中美首脑 3 个月内 第一次通电话，预计特朗普即将访问中国，并且启动新一轮中美贸易谈 判，四是 6 月 5 日欧洲央行降息，五是 CFTC 基金持仓净空恢复维持 2.94 万手。基本面来看，国内目前供需形势，本年度商业库存预测 8 月底为 155 万吨，去年是 214 万吨，23 年是 163 万吨，今年显然 商业库存偏紧。对于 09 合约，显然有支撑，所以现货基差偏强，棉花 短期基本面供应是偏紧的，在国内通缩和出口受阻的形势下，棉花整体 表现震荡抗跌的形态。新季度全球今年丰产概率增大，新疆丰产，预计 产量 720-750 万吨，巴西丰产至 395 万吨，美国干旱指数出现拐点 向下，预计单产提升，虽然面积减少，可能产量跟与去年保持持平。消 费端，可变性较大，主要取决于美国对等关税的态度以及美联储降息时 间，跟中国宏观持有积极态度，何时形成共振。短中期来看，进入 6、 7 月为对等 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 11 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆国债： | 震荡走强 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The black industry is expected to have a mixed performance with different products showing varying trends. The market is influenced by factors such as supply - demand dynamics, policy, and macro - economic news [1][3]. - **Specific products**: - **螺纹钢**: Futures prices are expected to move weakly in a range due to potential seasonal demand slowdown and relatively balanced supply - demand. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trades [1]. - **铁矿石**: The iron ore market is likely to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range. It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach as it is more affected by macro news and port inventory is expected to continue decreasing [1]. - **双焦**: Both coking coal and coke markets are expected to continue oscillating in the short term. For coking coal, focus on coal mine inventory reduction, coking enterprise profit repair, and steel terminal demand. For coke, pay attention to steel prices, steel mill blast furnace maintenance, and coking enterprise production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **螺纹钢** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar oscillated weakly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (+7) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The supply - demand is relatively balanced currently, with production declining for two consecutive weeks and inventory de - stocking slowing down. There may be a slight inventory build - up later [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price is near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. Given the low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies and the loosening of real - world supply - demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. **铁矿石** - **Price and basis**: On Tuesday, the iron ore futures oscillated. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 719 yuan/wet ton (- 5). The Platts 62% index was 94.95 dollars/ton (- 0.25), with a monthly average of 95.70 dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 60 yuan/ton (- 1) [1]. - **Supply and demand**: The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,839.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 104.04. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11 [1]. - **Outlook**: The iron ore market is mainly affected by macro news. With the high - yield shipments of overseas mainstream mines at the end of the fiscal year, the port inventory is expected to continue decreasing. The market is expected to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range [1]. **双焦** - **Coking coal** - **Supply**: Some coal mines have experienced phased production cuts, but the overall supply is still loose. Coal mine inventories are high, and the intermediate - link procurement is cautious [3]. - **Demand**: After the third round of price cuts for coke, coking enterprises' profit margins have been further compressed, and they maintain a low - inventory procurement strategy. Steel mills' procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coking coal remains loose, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Coke** - **Supply**: The production rhythm of coking enterprises is differentiated, with some experiencing passive production cuts due to profit pressure and environmental inspections, and the overall start - up level has declined [3]. - **Demand**: The steel market is entering the traditional off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Steel mills' demand for coke has limited growth, and their procurement is cautious [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of coke remains loose. Although the supply has marginally shrunk, the demand support is weak, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. **产经要闻** - **Industrial projects**: On June 7, Jin'an Mining's 9 - series permanent magnet ferrite ultra - pure iron powder pre - fired material project was put into production. Shanxi Jianlong and Shanxi Meijin resumed production, while Luzhou Xinyang Vanadium Titanium Steel plans to reduce production due to high - temperature weather [6]. - **Real estate**: From June 2nd to June 8th, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 26.9% week - on - week and 17.5% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand housing decreased by 11.8% week - on - week and 9.5% year - on - year [6]. - **Construction machinery**: In May 2025, the domestic sales of various excavators were 18,202 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. From January to May, a total of 101,700 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 17.4% [6]. - **Government bonds**: As of June 10, 2025, the new issuance scale of domestic land reserve special bonds has reached 108.348 billion yuan, involving 442 projects and 24 special bonds [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The overall market of energy and chemical products shows a complex situation with different trends for each product. PVC is expected to oscillate weakly, caustic soda to run weakly with oscillations, styrene to be sold short at high prices, rubber to oscillate in the short - term, urea to run weakly, methanol to have limited substantial positive support, polyolefin to oscillate in the short - term, and soda ash to maintain a bearish recommendation for the 01 contract [2][3][5][6][7][9][11][12] Summary by Product PVC - On June 10, the closing price of the PVC main 09 contract was 4810 yuan/ton (-6). The long - term demand is low due to the real - estate situation, and exports are restricted. Supply pressure is high in the third quarter. The current inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is macro - dominated. It is expected to oscillate weakly, with attention on the 4850 line pressure [2] Caustic Soda - On June 10, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2324 yuan/ton (+16). Supply has a neutral inventory with high - level operation and new installations expected. Demand from the alumina industry has a weakening restart expectation, and non - aluminum demand is in the off - season. It is expected to run weakly with oscillations, and the 09 contract should be shorted at high levels, with attention on the 2400 line pressure [3] Styrene - On June 10, the main styrene contract was 7346 (+135) yuan/ton. Crude oil has short - term rebounds but mid - term supply - demand relaxation expectations. Pure benzene has high imports and inventory accumulation. Styrene has short - term port de - stocking but mid - term accumulation expectations. It is recommended to sell short at high prices, with attention on the 7400 line pressure [4][5] Rubber - On June 10, rubber prices rebounded and then declined. New rubber supply is affected by weather, and demand has no obvious improvement. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization rates have declined. The market price has increased slightly [6] Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 1.24% to close at 1678 yuan/ton. Supply has a high - level operation, demand from the agricultural and industrial sectors is limited, and inventory is accumulating. It is expected to run weakly, with the 09 contract reference range of 1650 - 1850 [7][8] Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 0.26% to close at 2276 yuan/ton. Supply has a high - level capacity utilization rate, cost is under pressure, and demand from the olefin industry is okay but traditional demand is weak. Inventory is increasing. The 09 contract reference range is 2180 - 2300 [9] Polyolefin - On June 10, the L main contract closed at 7106 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract closed at 6941 yuan/ton. Supply has capacity expansion pressure, demand is in the traditional off - season, and PP inventory is accumulating while PE has slight de - stocking. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the L2509 reference range of 6950 - 7100 and the PP2509 reference range of 6850 - 7200 [10][11] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash is weak, prices are falling, and the basis discount has narrowed. Supply is increasing, downstream demand from the glass industry is poor, and inventory is accumulating. A bearish recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [12]

Group 1: Core Views - The current stock index futures market shows a pattern of "strong small-cap and stable large-cap". With positive news from the US Commerce Secretary, domestic stock indices may fluctuate strongly [1] - On Tuesday, the bond market continued to fluctuate, with a bullish bias. Fundamentals and other factors are favorable to the bond market in the long run, but the market may experience short-term fluctuations. However, the scope and time of market pullbacks are limited [3] Group 2: Strategy Recommendations - For stock indices, the strategy is to expect a fluctuating and upward trend [2] - For government bonds, the strategy is to allocate on dips [4] Group 3: Market Review - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures fell by 0.69%, 0.53%, 0.88%, and 0.89% respectively [6] - The main contracts of 10-year, 5-year, 30-year, and 2-year government bond futures rose by 0.01%, 0.01%, 0.07%, and 0.00% respectively [9] Group 4: Technical Analysis - The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggests a possible fluctuating trend [7] - The KDJ indicator of the T main contract of government bonds shows a fluctuating trend [10] Group 5: Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3841.00 | -0.69 | 64495 | 112083 | | 2025-06-10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2660.00 | -0.53 | 38481 | 46099 | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5718.20 | -0.88 | 52147 | 93852 | | 2025-06-10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6113.80 | -0.89 | 132573 | 158926 | | 2025-06-10 | 10-year Government Bond Continuous | 109.00 | 0.01 | 47942 | 184969 | | 2025-06-10 | 5-year Government Bond Continuous | 106.14 | 0.01 | 47953 | 147190 | | 2025-06-10 | 30-year Government Bond Continuous | 120.16 | 0.07 | 62753 | 103965 | | 2025-06-10 | 2-year Government Bond Continuous | 102.44 | 0.00 | 25053 | 118657 | [12] Group 6: Figures - Figures related to stock index futures include trends, PE ratios, trading volume, open interest, trading volume to open interest ratio, basis, basis rate, annualized basis rate, and inter - period spreads [13][17][22][24][26][29][31][33][34] - Figures related to government bond futures include trends, trading volume, open interest, trading volume to open interest ratio, trading amount, basis, and spot - futures price difference [37][42][47][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply-demand pattern in the feed and aquaculture industry is complex, with different products facing various short - term, medium - term, and long - term supply and demand situations, resulting in different price trends and investment strategies [1][2][4][8][9]. Summary by Product 1. Pig - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14.4 yuan/kg, 13.8 - 14 yuan/kg, and 15 - 15.4 yuan/kg respectively, with prices in Liaoning rising and those in other regions remaining stable [1]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged. There is still significant pressure on pig slaughter in June, and the seasonal demand off - season is emerging. In the long term, the supply from June to September is expected to increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still high [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is in a state of discount. In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. It is advisable to short at the resistance level after a rebound [1]. 2. Egg - **Price Situation**: On June 11, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing were 2.5 yuan/jin and 2.78 yuan/jin respectively, both showing a decline [2]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the supply is still relatively sufficient. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase in the future. In the long term, the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily observe the 07 contract. For the 08 and 09 contracts, take a bearish view and short at high levels after a rebound. Look for long opportunities for the 10 contract at low levels [2]. 3. Oil - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean oil main contract rose, the Malaysian palm oil main contract fell, and domestic palm oil and soybean oil prices mostly declined while rapeseed oil prices rose [4]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are all mixed. Palm oil has limited upside potential due to seasonal production increases. Soybean oil is under supply pressure but has some support. Rapeseed oil has short - term supply pressure but may see inventory reduction in the long term [5][6][7]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil will fluctuate in the short term. Consider the oil - meal ratio shrinking strategy [8]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the US soybean 07 contract rose, and the domestic soybean meal futures price also increased [8]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the US soybean price is strong due to weather factors, while the domestic supply is increasing. In the long term, the cost increase and weather factors will drive the price to rise steadily [8]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and hold existing long positions [8]. 5. Corn - **Price Situation**: On June 10, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port rose, and the price in Shandong Weifang remained stable [9]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: In the short term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and the price has support. In the long term, the supply - demand situation tightens, but the price increase is limited by substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: Take a bullish view overall. For the 07 contract, go long at the lower end of the range. Consider the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. from the previous trading day [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The overall supply-demand situation in the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products facing different supply and demand pressures and price trends. For example, the pig price is under pressure in the short and long term, the egg price is under pressure in the short and medium term but may ease in the long term, and the price trends of various oils and fats are also affected by multiple factors such as production, consumption, and policies [1][2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On June 10, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and other regions were stable with a slight increase. The short - term pig price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the long - term price rebound is under pressure due to large supply. The 07, 09, and 11 contracts of the futures are recommended to short at the rebound pressure level [1]. Egg - On June 10, the egg prices in Shandong and Beijing were stable. In the short term, the egg price has some support but is under pressure due to seasonal factors. In the medium term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long term, the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. Different strategies are recommended for different contracts [2]. Oils and Fats - On June 9, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends. Palm oil's export data improved in May, and the inventory accumulation speed in Malaysia slowed down, but the long - term accumulation trend remains. Soybean oil is affected by policies and fundamental factors, and the domestic inventory is expected to increase. Rapeseed oil is affected by factors such as Canada's supply and China - Canada relations. The overall oils and fats market is expected to fluctuate and bottom out in June and may rebound from the third quarter [4][5][6]. Bean Meal - On June 9, the domestic bean meal futures price rose. In the short term, the price is affected by US soybean weather, and the domestic inventory is expected to increase. In the long term, the price is expected to be stable with an upward trend due to cost and weather factors. The M2509 contract is recommended to go long at low levels [8]. Corn - On June 9, the corn prices in some regions were stable with a slight increase. In the short term, the corn price has support due to supply - demand game. In the long term, the price has an upward drive but the upward space is limited. The 07 contract is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range, and the 7 - 9 spread arbitrage is recommended [9]. Futures Market Overview - The table shows the price changes of various futures and spot products on June 9, including CBOT soybeans, bean meal, corn, etc., providing a reference for the market situation [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Cotton is expected to oscillate. In the short - and medium - term, the futures price will continue to oscillate before the tariff negotiations. In the long - term, the forward trend may diverge, depending on the attitude towards reciprocal tariffs. PTA is likely to face pressure. As macro - level benefits are digested and the supply - demand situation weakens, it may continue to be under pressure in the short term. Ethylene glycol will trade in a range. Although there is support from supply - demand, the upward movement is restricted. Short - fiber has bottom support. Despite possible further decline in processing fees, the supply may decrease, limiting the downside. Sugar is in a weak oscillation. International and domestic factors are mixed, and the price will maintain a weak oscillation. Apples will oscillate. With the impact of seasonal fruits, the price will stay around 7500 [1][3][4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Brief Views Cotton - Macro factors include concerns about the US Treasury bond maturity in June, domestic macro - level favorable policies, changes in Sino - US relations, the European Central Bank's interest - rate cut, and the net short position of CFTC funds. Fundamentally, the domestic commercial inventory is tight this year, which supports the 09 contract. The probability of a global bumper harvest in the new season is increasing. The consumption side is variable, depending on the US attitude towards tariffs and the Fed's interest - rate cut time. In the short - and medium - term, the market is waiting for the negotiation results, and the 07 contract's warehouse receipts may shift to the 09 contract. It is expected to oscillate between 13300 - 13625 next week, and attention should be paid to the price decline in July and August and the low point in the 12000 - 12500 range. In the long - term, the forward trend depends on the tariff attitude [1]. PTA - Due to geopolitical tensions and reduced Canadian oil production, international oil prices have risen. The PTA spot price has decreased. The domestic weak macro - level sentiment, weakening industrial supply - demand, and the weakening of the chemical sector have led to the weakening of the absolute price and the loosening of the spot basis. The PTA device's operating rate has increased, while the polyester production and sales rate has slightly decreased. With the digestion of macro - level benefits and the high spot basis, the PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken, and it may continue to face pressure in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - The international oil price decline has led to a decrease in the cost of ethylene glycol. The domestic production start - up has recovered, and the import arrival is low. Although the demand side has a high operating rate, the downstream polyester's cautious inventory replenishment restricts the upward movement of ethylene glycol [3]. Short - fiber - The tight supply of raw materials PX - PTA provides strong cost support. The short - fiber market may oscillate at a high level next week. However, due to poor downstream transmission, the processing fees may continue to decline. With some enterprises starting to reduce production, the downside space is limited [4]. Sugar - Internationally, although the sugar production and sugar - making ratio in the central - southern part of Brazil have decreased year - on - year at the beginning of the new season, there is still an expectation of increased production. In addition, the growth prospects of sugar crops in major producing countries such as India have improved, putting pressure on the futures price. Domestically, factors are mixed. The fast sales speed this season, the peak summer consumption season, and the control of syrup and premixed powder imports support the price, but continuous rainfall in Guangxi, the opening of the import profit window, and future import pressure lead to a weak oscillation of the sugar price [5]. Apple - The apple market is stable. The new - season apple bagging work continues in the producing areas. The trading atmosphere of in - warehouse goods is average, and the shipment is slow. The sales in the consumer market are average, affected by seasonal fruits. With the low inventory in the main producing areas and the approach of the seasonal off - season, the price will oscillate around 7500 [5]. 2. Macro Key Information - On June 9 and 10, the first meeting of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London. In May, China's CPI decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by energy prices. The PPI was still at a low level, but there were positive changes in some areas [8]. 3. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of May 22, the average PTA processing interval decreased, and the weekly average capacity utilization rate increased slightly due to the restart of some devices [11]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China decreased, and the weekly output also decreased, with both integrated and coal - based production showing declines [11]. Short - fiber - By the end of May, the monthly output of domestic polyester short - fiber increased, and the capacity utilization rate rose. However, the cost was still stronger than the short - fiber price, and the processing fees continued to decline [11]. Sugar - In May, Brazil's sugar and molasses exports decreased year - on - year. As of June 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports remained the same as last week, but the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, Guangdong's sugar production and sales increased, and the industrial inventory was zero [11][13][14]. Apple - As of June 4, the inventory of apples in cold storage in the main producing areas decreased, and the shipment speed slowed down compared with last week. The prices in Shaanxi and Shandong producing areas are provided [14]. 4. Important Data Tracking of Each Variety - There are multiple charts showing the price trends, spreads, capacity utilization rates, inventory changes, and other data of cotton, PTA, ethylene glycol, sugar, and apples [21][24][27][31][39][41].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, with limited upside and downside potential due to low inventory levels and supply disruptions, despite weakening downstream consumption [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short term due to the weakening US economy, increased tariffs, and the approaching off - season, despite the current strong de - stocking of aluminum ingots and bars [2][4]. - Nickel prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the medium - to - long term due to supply overcapacity, although cost support limits the downside [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, while paying attention to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6]. Summary by Category 1. Base Metals - **Copper**: As of June 9, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.13% to 78,910 yuan/ton. Tariffs and Sino - US leader phone calls bring positive expectations, but downstream consumption is weakening. Social inventory is low and stable, and the upside and downside of copper prices are limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: As of June 9, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract fell 0.20% to 20,025 yuan/ton. Guinea's mine - end disruptions will affect imports in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, and aluminum downstream开工率 is decreasing. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [2][4]. - **Nickel**: As of June 9, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract rose 0.47% to 122,710 yuan/ton. There are supply shortages in nickel mines, and the nickel industry has over - capacity. Cost support limits the downside, but prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5]. - **Tin**: As of June 9, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.31% to 263,740 yuan/ton. Tin ore supply is improving, but the improvement is limited. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate, and range trading is recommended [6]. 2. Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: Spot market transactions are light, with holders holding firm on prices and downstream buyers making small - quantity purchases on dips. Traders are waiting for negotiation results and inventory inflection points [7]. - **Aluminum**: Spot aluminum market transactions are light, with downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases. Holders are more willing to sell, but traders are cautious [8]. - **Zinc**: Spot market trading volume has increased slightly. Holders lower premiums to stimulate sales, and downstream buyers purchase on dips, but macro uncertainties limit restocking [10][11]. - **Lead**: Spot market trading is light, with traders focusing on selling and downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases [12][13]. - **Nickel**: Spot market transactions are light, with downstream buyers making rigid - demand purchases and trading mainly among traders [14][15]. - **Tin**: Spot market transactions are light due to high prices [16]. 3. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **SHFE**: Copper, zinc, and nickel futures warehouse receipts increased, while aluminum and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and lead futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [18]. - **LME**: Copper, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, and tin inventory remained unchanged [18].

Report Overview - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The report analyzes the market conditions of various black industries including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, and provides short - term price trend forecasts and trading suggestions based on supply - demand fundamentals and macro - factors [1][3][4] Rebar Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the rebar futures price fluctuated. The Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3120 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis of the 10 - contract was 139 (-16) [1] - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar decreased month - on - month, possibly affected by the Dragon Boat Festival. The demand seasonally weakens over time. Long - process steel mills have good profits, while short - process ones have poor profits. Rebar production has declined for two consecutive weeks, and inventory depletion has slowed down. The supply - demand is relatively balanced, and there may be a slight inventory build - up later [1] - **Price Forecast**: The current rebar futures price has fallen close to the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. There is a low probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short term, and the supply - demand has turned loose. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1] Iron Ore Analysis - **Price and Basis**: On Monday, the iron ore futures fluctuated. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 724 yuan/wet ton (-6), the Platts 62% index was 95.20 dollars/ton (-0.90), and the PBF basis was 61 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - **Supply - Demand**: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,839.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.8. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,516.87 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 104.04. The daily pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.11. The continuous price reduction of coal in the raw material end has maintained steel production, so iron ore is relatively strong. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline [1] - **Price Forecast**: The price is mainly affected by macro - news, with little impact from fundamentals. Technically, the long - short forces are not obvious. It is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730, and it is advisable to wait and see [1] Coking Coal Analysis - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the main production areas have reduced production due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is relatively stable. The online auction of Mongolian coking coal has failed continuously, and the downstream procurement is still cautious [3] - **Demand**: After the continuous price cuts of coke, the market pessimism has increased. Coke enterprises and steel mills have weak procurement enthusiasm, and the demand for coking coal is insufficient [3] - **Price Forecast**: The supply - demand of the coking coal market remains loose. The short - term price center may continue to move down, and it is necessary to focus on the improvement of coke demand, import coal price fluctuations, and coal mine inventory depletion [3] Coke Analysis - **Supply**: Although coke enterprises are under shipment pressure and inventory is accumulating, most still have some profit margins, and the supply reduction is limited. After the third price cut, some enterprises may adjust production, and supply is expected to shrink [4] - **Demand**: The steel market is in the off - season, terminal demand is difficult to improve, iron ore production growth is weak, and the demand for coke is limited [4] - **Price Forecast**: The coke market fundamentals are loose, and the short - term price may continue to be weak. It is necessary to focus on steel terminal demand, coke enterprise profit changes, and coking coal price transmission [4] Industry News - On June 9, local time, Chinese and US officials held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London [7] - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year, with the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreasing by 10.2% [7] - Baowu Steel's ex - factory prices in July are expected to remain flat [7] - In May, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.96 million units, a year - on - year increase of 13.9% and a month - on - month increase of 10% [7] - In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 1.1% [7]