Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Equity Index**: The "Renovation Gate" of the Fed has escalated, with Trump pressuring for a rate cut. The ECB has stopped rate cuts after eight consecutive reductions, and the expectation of a September rate cut has dropped sharply. China is strongly "anti - involution" with the revision of the Price Law. After the coal mine production verification dampened market sentiment, the "Hainan blockade" and "anti - involution" have boosted market risk appetite again, and the slow - bull trend of the equity index is becoming clear with its central level rising [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Thursday, the bond market adjusted significantly. Currently, the focus of short - term bond market trading is not on the capital and fundamental aspects. The influence of investor behavior and the performance of major asset classes on the bond market has been significantly magnified. Compared with the commodity and equity markets, the previous adjustment space of the bond market is still insufficient, and the odds are limited, making incremental funds cautious and existing funds uneasy. In this situation, the bond market is still difficult to make great progress. It is recommended to preserve strength and wait for better opportunities to allocate [2]. 3. Directory Summaries Market Review - **Equity Index**: The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 equity index futures rose by 0.76%, 0.50%, 1.72%, and 1.84% respectively [1][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts of treasury bond futures fell by 0.27%, 0.20%, 0.87%, and 0.08% respectively [2][6]. Technical Analysis - **Equity Index**: The RSI indicator shows that the market has a callback risk [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6]. Strategy Suggestions - **Equity Index**: The equity index is expected to fluctuate upwards [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Pay attention to taking profits and wait for better entry opportunities [2][3]. Futures Data - **Equity Index Futures**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 main contracts were 4,141.20 yuan, 2,816.60 yuan, 6,226.00 yuan, and 6,618.60 yuan respectively, with trading volumes of 65,298 lots, 34,309 lots, 49,292 lots, and 124,051 lots, and open interests of 163,125 lots, 63,790 lots, 109,680 lots, and 181,457 lots respectively [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year main contracts were 108.24 yuan, 105.60 yuan, 118.31 yuan, and 102.30 yuan respectively, with trading volumes of 88,420 lots, 88,209 lots, 149,278 lots, and 54,515 lots, and open interests of 196,150 lots, 160,008 lots, 122,909 lots, and 106,097 lots respectively [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The pig market is currently under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand in the short - term, with a near - weak and far - strong trend in the futures market. Egg prices may rise in the short - term but are limited by supply pressure, and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of edible oils is high - level oscillation with upward potential after a correction, with palm oil expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil being relatively weak. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it is expected to strengthen in the medium - to - long - term. The short - term trend of corn is a tug - of - war between supply and demand, and it is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term, but the upside is limited [1][2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pig - On July 25, the spot prices of pigs in Liaoning, Henan, and Guangdong decreased, while that in Sichuan remained stable. In the short - term, supply is strong and demand is weak, and the pig price will be adjusted slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply will gradually increase in the second half of the year. The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong trend. It is recommended to go short on 09 and 11 contracts when they rebound under pressure and wait and see on the 01 contract, and also consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and longing 01 [1]. Egg - On July 25, the egg prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short - term, the egg price has an upward drive but is limited by supply. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future. In the long - term, the supply may decrease. It is recommended to take a short position on the 09 contract and wait for a long - position opportunity on the 12 and 01 contracts [2]. Edible Oils Palm Oil - On July 24, the Malaysian palm oil futures price rose. Although the export decreased and the production increased from July 1 - 20, multiple factors support the short - term strong - side oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. In China, the supply of palm oil will be abundant in August. It is recommended to focus on the 4400 pressure level of the 10 - contract [4]. Soybean Oil - In the short - term, the U.S. soybean may have limited decline and will be range - bound. In China, the soybean oil inventory is expected to accumulate in the short - term, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The 11 - contract has support at 1000 - 1020 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures price will continue to oscillate in the short - term. In China, the supply of rapeseed oil will tighten, and the possibility of importing Australian rapeseed has increased. It is recommended to focus on the July 25 - 26 Canadian supply - demand report [6]. Soybean Meal - On July 24, the U.S. soybean futures price rose. In the short - term, the U.S. soybean will be range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal spot price increase is limited, while the futures price is relatively strong. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost will rise, and the price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the M2509 contract at low levels and consider the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low levels [7]. Corn - On July 24, the corn purchase prices in Jinzhou Port and Shandong Weifang Xingmao rose. In the short - term, the supply - demand tug - of - war is intensifying, and the price range is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand relationship will tighten, and the price will rise, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract and consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread [7]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot varieties on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. [8]

Group 1: Overall Information - The report is a financial futures daily report released on July 24, 2025, by the Research and Consulting Department of Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd [1][5] Group 2: Stock Index Core View - China's Ministry of Commerce announced that He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30. Media reports of a 15% tariff on the EU by the US were refuted by the White House. The EU plans to impose a 30% tariff on $100 billion of US goods. Trump claimed a US - Japan agreement with Japan accepting a 15% tax rate and opening auto and rice markets. The US Treasury Secretary is not in a hurry to decide Powell's successor. After the market sentiment cooled from coal mine production checks, trade news boosted market risk appetite, and the slow - bull trend of the stock index became clearer with its center rising [1] Strategy Recommendation - The stock index is expected to fluctuate upward [2] Market Review - The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 0.31%, 0.49%, 0.13%, and 0.06% respectively [6] Technical Analysis - The RSI indicator shows that the broader market has a callback risk [6] Group 3: Treasury Bonds Core View - On Tuesday, the bond market started to adjust. The odds space for long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened. In the past month, due to factors like fund diversion and increased risk appetite, the yield bottom has gradually risen, and with the microstructure not yet repaired, the bond market may continue to fluctuate at the bottom. The sustainability of equities and commodities needs further observation [3] Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to taking profits [4] Market Review - The main contracts of 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year treasury bonds fell by 0.12%, 0.09%, 0.22%, and 0.04% respectively [7] Technical Analysis - The RSI indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7] Group 4: Futures Data - On July 23, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts are provided, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000 stock index futures, and 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, 2 - year treasury bond futures [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; treasury bonds are recommended to focus on taking profits, with a strengthening shock [6]. - **Black building materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; iron ore is expected to be strong with shocks; coking coal and coke are recommended for cautious trial - buying [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading or observation; aluminum is recommended to be mainly observed; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin is recommended for range trading; gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][11][20]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be strong with shocks; urea and methanol are expected to move with shocks; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range shocks; soda ash is recommended for离场观望 [1][23][36]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with shocks; apples and jujubes are expected to move with shocks [1][38][39]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices; eggs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term and long - bought at low prices in the fourth quarter; corn is expected to have high - level shocks; soybean meal and oils are expected to be strong with shocks [1][41][48]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. For example, in the macro - finance sector, index futures are influenced by trade news and show a slow - bull trend, while treasury bonds face challenges from capital diversion and risk - preference changes. In the black building materials sector, prices are affected by factors like production inspections, supply - demand balances, and policy expectations. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to trade news boosting market risk preference [6]. - **Treasury bonds**: Although the odds space of long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened, the bond market is under pressure from capital diversion and cautious institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [6]. Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to policy signals and crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron ore**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply is stable, the demand is strong, and the market is influenced by trade policies and policy expectations [9]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coking coal shows a supply - demand boom, and the price is strongly supported in the short - term. Coke has obvious supply - demand gaming characteristics, and the second - round price increase may be affected by factors such as steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is affected by factors such as import tariffs, inventory changes, and economic recovery expectations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward space of the price is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation. Alumina is recommended for observation, and electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are recommended for observation [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the price is expected to move with shocks. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19][20]. - **Silver and gold**: The prices are expected to move with shocks. They are affected by factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and tariff policies [20][22]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but it is driven by policy expectations and is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 5100 [24][25]. - **Caustic soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but slow growth. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 10 - contract can be considered for low - buying on dips [26][27]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited benefits, and it is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 7300 [28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 15000. The raw material is firm, and the inventory shows a slight destocking trend [30]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the price is expected to move with shocks in the range of 1680 - 1850 [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand tend to be stable, and the price is expected to move with shocks [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the intervals of 7200 - 7500 for L2509 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2509 [34][35]. - **Soda ash**: It is recommended for离场观望. The supply is high, the demand is under pressure, and the short - term is driven by macro factors [37]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the spot market is tight [38]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level range shock due to low inventory [39]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the new - season situation in the production area [39]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure still exists, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices after the rebound [41][42]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to long - buy at low prices. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand changes and cold - storage egg出库 [44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to have a high - level shock. It is recommended to be cautious when going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [45][46]. - **Soybean meal**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices for M2509. In the long - term, pay attention to the weather and go long at low prices for M2511 and M2601 [46][48]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts, and continue the idea of buying on dips [48][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pressure of live pigs remains, showing a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. For eggs, the short - term price has a rising drive but the supply pressure is large, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease. Oils are expected to be in a relatively strong trend after a correction. The short - term trend of soybean meal is range - bound, and it may strengthen in the medium - to - long term. The short - term supply - demand of corn is in a game, and the price may rise in the medium - to - long term with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9] Summary by Variety Live Pigs - On July 24, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong all declined. In the short term, supply exceeds demand, and the pig price adjusts slightly. In the medium - to - long term, the supply will gradually increase. Under the expectation of capacity reduction, it shows weak reality and strong expectation. The 09 contract has pressure at 14700 - 15000, the 11 contract at 14400 - 14600, and the 01 contract has support. Consider the strategy of shorting 09, 11 and going long on 01 [1] Eggs - On July 24, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing remained stable. In the short term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate, and demand is expected to turn seasonally strong, but supply factors limit the increase. In the medium term, the supply in August - October 2025 may increase. In the long term, the subsequent new production may decrease. The 09 contract waits for spot guidance, and consider shorting on rallies. The 12 and 01 contracts can be considered for long positions on dips [2] Oils Palm Oil - On July 23, the Malaysian palm oil futures rose. The MPOB June report was neutral - bearish, but the market focused on the increased import demand. In July, the export decline and production increase were bearish, but the GAPKI May report and other factors were bullish. The short - term trend is relatively strong, and the 10 contract focuses on the 4300 - 4400 pressure level. In China, the supply in August is relatively loose [4][5] Soybean Oil - As of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans is good. The US soybean futures are in a short - term range - bound. The short - term inventory accumulation in China is expected to be strong, but the long - term supply is uncertain. The soybean oil is moderately strong [6] Rapeseed Oil - The growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there are potential weather threats. The international demand may be affected. In China, the supply is tightening, but the potential import of Australian rapeseed may improve the supply. It is relatively weak [7] Soybean Meal - On July 23, the US soybean futures declined. The short - term US soybean is range - bound, and the domestic soybean meal is strong in the short term but the upside of the spot is limited. In the medium - to - long term, there may be a supply gap. Short - term, consider going long on the M2509 contract on dips; medium - to - long term, pay attention to the M2511 and M2601 contracts [8] Corn - On July 23, the price in Jinzhou Port was stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao increased. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is range - bound. In the medium - to - long term, the supply - demand tightens, and the price may rise but the upside is limited. Short - term, be cautious about going long on the 09 contract; consider the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [8][9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides daily insights into the feed and aquaculture industry including price movements of various agricultural products and offers corresponding trading strategies. It analyzes the supply - demand dynamics of products such as pigs, eggs, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, and corn, and expects a short - term correction but a long - term bullish trend for oils. [1][2][5][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pigs - On July 23, the spot price of pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was stable at 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg; in Guangdong, it was stable at 15.6 - 16.2 yuan/kg. The short - term supply - demand game is intensifying, and the pig price fluctuates within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the second half of the year is still high, and the price rebound is under pressure. [1] - Futures prices are rising due to macro - bullish sentiment, but the supply - demand pressure remains. The pressure levels for contracts 09, 11, and 01 are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, and consider shorting contracts 11 and 01 on rebounds, and also pay attention to the short 09/11 and long 01 arbitrage. [1] Eggs - On July 23, the egg price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.12 yuan/jin. In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the egg - laying rate, and demand is expected to pick up seasonally, driving up the egg price, but supply - side factors limit the increase. [2] - In the medium - term, the high number of chicks replenished from April to June 2025 means more laying hens will start production from August to October 2025, and the supply increase trend may be hard to reverse. In the long - term, the enthusiasm for chick replenishment has declined, and the number of new - laying hens may decrease. [2] - The current 09 basis is still low, and the futures market is highly volatile. It is recommended to wait for spot price guidance. If the spot price increase slows down, consider shorting at high prices. For the fourth - quarter contracts 12 and 01, consider going long at low prices, and pay attention to feed prices and hen culling. [2] Oils - On July 22, the US soybean oil December contract fell 0.57% to 55.48 cents/lb due to falling international crude oil prices; the Malaysian palm oil October contract rose 0.88% to 4263 ringgit/ton, driven by the strength of US soybean oil but limited by falling crude oil and other edible oil markets. [4] - For palm oil, the June MPOB report showed an increase in ending stocks, but the market focused on the strong import demand in major consuming countries in June. In July, although exports decreased and production increased, Indonesian biodiesel news, potential lower - than - expected production in Indonesia, and import demand from China and India supported the short - term bullish trend. The 10 - contract is expected to face resistance at 4300 - 4400. In China, palm oil stocks have risen, and new purchases in August are being watched. [5] - For soybean oil, as of mid - July, the growth of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is good. Although there will be high - temperature weather in the next 1 - 2 weeks, there will also be precipitation. The US soybean oil is strong due to the RVO draft from the EPA and potential trade negotiations. In China, soybean oil stocks are expected to accumulate in July, and the long - term supply depends on future soybean purchases. [6] - For rapeseed oil, the growth of Canadian rapeseed is improving, but there is still a risk of drought. Sino - Canadian relations may lead to an increase in Australian rapeseed imports. In China, rapeseed oil stocks are gradually decreasing, and the impact of Australian rapeseed imports needs to be monitored. [7] - Overall, although there was a correction in domestic oils due to factors such as falling international crude oil prices and reduced palm oil exports, the correction is limited, and oils are expected to be bullish after the correction. Palm oil is expected to be the strongest, followed by soybean oil, and rapeseed oil may be relatively weak. It is recommended to buy on dips for the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, paying attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 respectively. [8][9] Soybean Meal - On July 22, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 0.5 cents to 1025.5 cents/bu, and the domestic soybean meal was stronger than US soybeans due to the expected destocking after August and tariff factors. The M2509 contract closed at 3086 yuan/ton. [9] - In the short - term, the good precipitation in the US soybean - growing areas and high soybean quality limit the upward movement of US soybeans. In China, high soybean arrivals and high - volume crushing lead to inventory accumulation, limiting the increase in the spot price of soybean meal. The basis is expected to be weak, with a bottom around 09 - 200 yuan/ton in the East China region. The M2509 contract is trading on the destocking expectation. [9] - In the medium - to - long - term, there may be a supply gap from October to January, and attention should be paid to import policies and volumes. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the short - term for the M2509 contract and go long on the M2511 and M2601 contracts at low prices in the medium - to - long - term. [9] Corn - On July 22, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2330 yuan/ton; in Shandong Weifang Xingmao, the purchase price was 2522 yuan/ton, both stable from the previous day. [9] - In the short - term, policy - grain releases increase supply, but reduced selling willingness and inventory depletion support the price. However, the availability of alternative feedstocks limits the upward space. In the medium - term, there was a production reduction in the 24/25 season, and the supply - demand situation tightened, but policy releases and alternative feedstocks limit price increases. In the long - term, the 25/26 corn planting is stable, and costs have decreased. [9] - It is recommended to be cautious about going long on the 09 contract in the short - term and wait for spot price guidance. Also, pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage opportunity. [9] Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and trading information of various futures and spot products including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to oscillate with an upward bias in the short term. The market for these commodities shows a pattern of strong supply - demand dynamics, but is also subject to various influencing factors such as policies, production capacity, and profit margins [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Steel - **Price and Basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of rebar continued to rise significantly. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,420 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 113 (-33) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: According to the Steel Union's statistics, the recent apparent demand for rebar decreased by 153,300 tons month - on - month, production decreased by 76,000 tons, and inventory increased by 28,900 tons. The contradiction in the off - season demand is not obvious, and supply and demand remain relatively balanced [1]. - **Outlook**: The futures price of rebar has risen to near the cost of electric arc furnaces at flat electricity prices, and the static valuation has been restored to a neutral level. In terms of driving factors, macroscopically, attention should be paid to whether there are relevant policy signals at the Politburo meeting at the end of the month. Industrially, the current supply - demand is balanced, and attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions. It is expected that the price will oscillate with an upward bias. The strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on the spot and short on the futures [1]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Price and Basis**: On Tuesday, the futures price of iron ore rose significantly. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/wet ton (+13). The Platts 62% index was 104.85 US dollars/ton (+1.90), with a monthly average of 97.91 US dollars/ton. The basis of PBF was 22 yuan/ton (0) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2.479 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.3. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22.60737 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 138.16. The daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises was 2.4244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.63. The supply side has not changed significantly, while the demand side is relatively strong [1]. - **Outlook**: The Sino - US trade friction has eased, and the tariff truce period may be further extended. The futures price is starting to recover to the level before the friction. With the increasing policy expectations for the end - of - month meeting, the iron ore futures price has reached a new high in stages. It is expected that the price will oscillate with an upward bias [1]. 3.3. Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines in the production areas are restricted by accidents and underground conditions, and the production release rhythm is still slow. The overall supply recovery process of coking coal has not met expectations. In terms of imports, driven by the sharp rise in the domestic futures market, Mongolian coal traders are optimistic, and the prices of mainstream coal types such as Mongolian 5 raw coal have risen significantly [3]. - **Demand**: The second round of coke price increases has been implemented, and with macro - level positive stimuli, the futures market of the black series has risen sharply. Coke enterprises and traders are actively transporting, and coal mine sales are generally smooth. Steel mills' profitability has improved, production enthusiasm is high, and the rigid demand remains strong. However, downstream enterprises are a bit cautious about purchasing high - priced coal, and the inventory - increasing rhythm is still restricted to some extent [3]. - **Port Situation**: Affected by the policy documents from the production areas and the futures limit - up, the market sentiment is high. Futures - cash combined traders have mostly suspended quoting prices and are holding back goods [3]. - **Outlook**: The current coking coal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The supply side recovers slowly, and the demand side is driven by coke price increases and improved profits of finished products. The short - term price support is strong. Attention should be paid to the coal mine复产 progress, the sustainability of coke price increases, and the steel mills' profit situation [3]. 3.4. Coke - **Supply**: Recently, coke enterprises in the production areas have successively launched a second - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Driven by the sharp rise in the black - series futures market, the price of coking coal has also risen, and the immediate cost of coke enterprises has increased significantly. However, the rise of coke prices lags behind, resulting in a continuous compression of the profit margins of most coke enterprises, and some are in a state of inversion. There may be a further reduction in production in the future [3]. - **Demand**: With the continuous rise of steel prices, steel mills' profitability has improved, production enthusiasm is high, and the rigid demand for coke remains strong. However, steel mills in the southwest region are affected by the sales pressure of finished products, with weak terminal demand and narrow profit margins. Some enterprises may even face losses and may have maintenance plans in the future [3]. - **Outlook**: The current coke market shows obvious supply - demand game characteristics. The supply side is restricted by cost squeeze and profit inversion, and the demand side has different acceptance levels for price increases due to regional differentiation and profit limitations. In the short term, the implementation rhythm of the second - round price increase may be affected by the steel mills' profit repair progress and regional demand differentiation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of coke enterprises' production, the sustainability of steel mills' profit improvement, and the terminal demand for steel [3]. 3.5. Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, the total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.4245 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 315,000 tons. The inventory has increased for three consecutive periods and has reached the peak since the beginning of the year [6]. - In June 2025, the total energy consumption of member enterprises of the China Iron and Steel Association decreased by 3.57% year - on - year; the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.82% year - on - year; the comparable energy consumption per ton of steel increased by 1.96% year - on - year; and the power consumption per ton of steel increased by 4.27% year - on - year [6]. - In August 2025, the production plan for household air conditioners was 1.1155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%. Among them, the domestic sales production plan was 651,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%; the export production plan was 464,500 units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.5% [6]. - On July 22nd, a notice about "coal mine production verification" circulated in the market. The Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration has issued a notice to organize a verification of coal mine production in eight provinces (regions) including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia to ensure stable and orderly coal supply. The content of the notice is true, but the start time of the verification is uncertain [6]. - The hydropower project in the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River is expected to have an installed capacity 2.7 times that of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station. It is estimated that the cement demand will be more than 40 million tons and the sand and gravel aggregate demand will be about 150 million tons [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. For rebar, pay attention to policies from the Politburo meeting and the implementation of crude steel production restrictions. For iron ore, consider the impact of Sino - US trade relations and domestic industrial policies. For coking coal, focus on the influence of environmental protection, accidents, and market demand. For coke, be aware of the impact of steel market conditions, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Rebar - On Monday, the rebar futures price rose significantly. The spot price in Hangzhou was 3370 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (+3). The recent apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons, production decreased by 7.60 tons, and inventory increased by 2.89 tons. The futures price has risen to the cost level of valley - electricity for electric furnaces, with static valuation restored to a neutral level. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on the spot and short on the futures [1]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the iron ore futures price rose significantly. The PB powder price at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton (+18), the Platts 62% index was 100.20 dollars/ton (-0.05), and the monthly average was 97.06 dollars/ton. The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2479 tons, a decrease of 19.3 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22607.37 tons, a decrease of 138.16 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons. The supply has no obvious change, while the demand is relatively strong. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Coking Coal - The supply is affected by environmental protection policies and accidents, with limited incremental supply and blocked capacity release. The Mongolian port customs clearance is gradually recovering, and the port trading atmosphere is active. The demand is strong due to positive macro news and high purchasing enthusiasm from steel and coking enterprises. The coking coal market is expected to continue to operate strongly in the short - term [3]. Coke - The supply is contracting, with coking enterprises maintaining normal production and low inventory. The demand shows a multi - dimensional differentiation. The cost of raw coal is rising, and some coking enterprises plan to start the second price increase. The coke market is expected to operate strongly in the short - term, but beware of the impact of the weak steel market [3]. Industry News - From July 19th to 20th, steel enterprises at the 10th Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprise Summit Forum agreed to "strengthen self - discipline and control production". - The July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. - Anhui Province issued access standards for the mining and dressing of 14 minerals, including iron ore. - From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, new orders decreased by 18.2% year - on - year, and the order backlog at the end of June increased by 36.7% year - on - year. - In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 48418 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply - demand game intensifies in the feed and breeding industry, with price fluctuations. In the medium - and long - term, supply pressure remains high in some sectors, and price rebounds face challenges. Different varieties have different performance trends due to various factors such as production, consumption, and policies [1][2][5][6] - The strategy suggestions for different varieties include waiting for appropriate trading opportunities based on pressure levels, conducting hedging operations, and following the idea of buying on dips [1][2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Hog - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Henan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, stable; in Sichuan 13.5 - 13.7 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong 15.8 - 16.2 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan/kg [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In July, the scale enterprise's slaughter volume decreased, and factors like government price - stabilizing sentiment and secondary fattening supported the price. However, high hog weight and weak demand restricted the price increase. In the medium - and long - term, the supply pressure is large due to the increase in the number of sows capable of reproduction [1] - **Strategy**: The futures price has risen, but the supply - demand pressure persists. The pressure levels for 09, 11, and 01 contracts are 14500 - 14700, 14000 - 14200, and 14200 - 14400 respectively. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - short side, short 11 and 01 on rebounds, and consider the spread trading of short 09, 11 and long 01 [1] 2. Egg - **Spot Price**: On July 22, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.15 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing 3.27 yuan/jin, stable [2] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, high - temperature weather reduces the laying rate and drives the price up, but factors like slow culling, large new - laying hens, and cold - storage egg release limit the increase. In the medium - term, the supply will increase in the future due to high replenishment in 25 years 4 - 6 months. In the long - term, the replenishment enthusiasm has declined, and the new - laying may decrease [2] - **Strategy**: The 09 contract's basis is low, and the futures price is waiting for spot guidance. It is recommended to short on highs if the spot price increase slows down. Consider going long on 12 and 01 contracts in the fourth quarter [2][3] 3. Oil - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean oil 12 - month contract rose 0.40% to 55.80 cents/pound; the Malaysian palm oil 10 - month contract fell 2.09% to 4226 ringgit/ton [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Palm oil: The June ending inventory increased, and the export in July 1 - 20 decreased while the production increased. The domestic inventory rose in June. Soybean oil: The US soybean growth is good, and the export is expected to improve. The domestic inventory is expected to increase in July. Rapeseed oil: The Canadian rapeseed growth is improving, and the Australian rapeseed may enter the Chinese market [5] - **Strategy**: The oil prices are expected to be strong after a correction. Palm oil is the strongest, soybean oil is medium, and rapeseed oil is relatively weak. Consider buying on dips for 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oil [6][7] 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures Price**: On July 21, the US soybean 11 - contract fell 9.75 cents to 1026 cents/bushel; the domestic M2509 contract closed at 3069 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply and Demand**: The US soybean is waiting for weather guidance, and the domestic soybean meal is stronger than the US soybean due to the expected de - stocking after August and tariff effects. The domestic supply is abundant in July - August, and the inventory is expected to decrease later [7] - **Strategy**: Short - term, reduce long positions and take profits; medium - and long - term, go long on M2511 and M2601 contracts on dips [7] 5. Corn - **Spot Price**: On July 21, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port was 2290 yuan/ton, stable; the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2522 yuan/ton, stable [8] - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, policy grain supply and demand game intensifies, and the price range is limited. In the medium - term, the supply is tightening, but substitutes limit the increase. In the long - term, the planting is stable, and the cost decreases [8] - **Strategy**: Short - term, be cautious about going long unilaterally and wait for spot guidance; consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread trading [8] 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: CBOT soybean decreased 8.25 cents to 1026.75 cents/bushel; domestic soybean meal M2509 rose 13 yuan to 3069 yuan/ton; CBOT corn decreased 5 cents to 404 cents/bushel; domestic corn futures rose 6 yuan to 2320 yuan/ton; CBOT soybean oil rose 0.22 cents to 55.80 cents/pound; BMD palm oil rose 3984 ringgit to 8300 ringgit/ton; ICE rapeseed decreased 1.10 Canadian dollars to 698.90 Canadian dollars/ton; egg futures rose 41 yuan to 3636 yuan/500 kg; hog futures rose 230 yuan to 14365 yuan/ton [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to move up in a volatile manner, and government bonds are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is expected to move sideways, iron ore and coking coal and coke are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading or waiting and seeing; aluminum is recommended to wait and see; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [1][11][13][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner; soda ash is recommended to wait and see; urea and methanol are expected to move sideways; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][25][26]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1][37][38]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies; corn is expected to have high - level fluctuations; soybean meal and oils are expected to move in a range [1][40][42][43]. Core Views The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the market conditions, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy expectations, and macro - economic factors, to predict the price trends of these futures products. Traders are advised to adjust their investment strategies according to the characteristics and influencing factors of each product. Summaries by Catalog Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: There is a slow - bull market with a possible double - top situation. The market is affected by factors such as US - EU trade issues, Chinese housing policies, and large - scale hydropower projects [6]. - **Government Bonds**: The current loose capital situation supports the bond market, but the short - term upward space is limited due to the increase in market risk appetite. It is necessary to wait for the cooling of the stock and commodity markets to consider layout. Short - term long - bond strategies are not recommended [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to move sideways. Although the price has risen to a certain level, the fundamentals are in a relatively balanced state. It is necessary to pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the implementation of crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. The increase in industry - related meetings and the increase in blast furnace复产 have positive impacts on the raw material side. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is strong [8][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. For coking coal, the supply is affected by environmental protection and accidents, and the demand is strong. For coke, the supply is in a contraction state, and the demand is multi - dimensional. It is necessary to pay attention to steel mill profits and cost fluctuations [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to move in a range. The US copper import tariff policy, domestic consumption season, and economic situation affect the price. The supply is expected to increase, which will restrict the price increase [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fall and then stabilize. The supply of bauxite and alumina is expected to change, and the demand is affected by the season. The arrival of aluminum ingots will increase, and the high price will suppress demand [13]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to move sideways. The supply of the nickel industry is in an over - supply situation, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to move in a range. The supply of tin ore has improved limitedly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: The price is expected to move in a range. The US economic data, geopolitical situation, and tariff policy affect the price. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18][19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Although the supply is high and the export sustainability is uncertain, the current policy expectations are dominant. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - data, export, inventory, and raw material prices [20][21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate is slowing down. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - factors and the relationship between supply and demand [22][23]. - **Styrene**: The price is expected to move weakly in a range. The supply has a resumption and future production increase expectations, and the demand has the risk of weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to oil prices, raw material supply, and macro - policies [24][25]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. The macro - environment and cost factors support the price, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to production area weather and downstream demand [26][28]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to move sideways. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand has certain support, and the inventory is decreasing. It is necessary to pay attention to the relationship between supply and demand [30]. - **Methanol**: The price is expected to move sideways. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand of methanol - to - olefins has increased slightly, and the traditional demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply - demand relationship [32]. - **Polyolefins**: The price is expected to move weakly in a range. The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a slight decline. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - policies, cost, and downstream demand [33][34]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is under pressure. Although the short - term macro - drive is strong, the long - term support is uncertain [36]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Although the downstream consumption is light, the spot market is tight [37]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to move sideways. The trading in the production area is cautious, and the sales area is affected by competing fruits. The low - inventory situation supports the high - level range movement [38]. - **Jujubes**: The price is expected to be stable. The new - season production in the production area is in the growth stage, and the sales area has low arrivals and general consumption [38]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The price is expected to move weakly in a range. The overall supply pressure is large, and the price is affected by factors such as seasonality, government policies, and enterprise production [40][41]. - **Eggs**: The 09 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to go long on dips. The short - term supply pressure is relieved, but the long - term supply may increase [42][43]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to have high - level fluctuations. The short - term supply is relatively loose, and the long - term supply - demand relationship is tightening. It is recommended to be cautious about bottom - fishing and pay attention to 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [43][44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The price is expected to move in a range. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the long - term cost and supply - demand contradictions may stimulate the price to rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up in the short - term and go long on dips in the long - term [45][46]. - **Oils**: The price is expected to move in a range. The short - term prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [46][51].