有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 16 日收盘，沪铜主力 06 合约下跌 0.92%至 75260 元/吨。美 国对等关税政策超预期，中国随之全面反制，美挑起的关税战加大了全 球经济衰退的概率，各类资产遭受无差别抛售，重要大宗商品价格短期 重挫。随着中美关税已加无可加，边际影响减弱以及特朗普政策的反复， 铜价大幅反弹。基本面上，价格回落，下游企业逢低补库积极，订单增 长明显，国内库存下降表现较为明显。铜精矿供应也依旧紧张，现货 TC 继续在负值区间下探，再生铜采购难度也在加大，但副产品价格高位， 国内产出的预期依然较高。不过卫星监测数据显示，3 月全球铜冶炼活 动大幅下降，平均有 12.6%的产能处于闲置状态，高于 2 月的 8.8%。 其中，中国冶炼厂的闲置率上升 4.5 个百分点达到 9.6%。4 月供应或有 一定收缩。随着关税问题的持续影响，后续出口有减少趋势。整体上此 前国内供应偏紧的预期或有所转变。铜长期的需求逻辑仍在，炼厂仍面 临较大的原料保供和保本压力，短期基本面仍有韧性。但关税的中长期 影响将拉低铜市场需求，铜价重心或有下移可能。关税战持续，宏观因 素仍不断带来影响，下周沪铜维持 ...

◆ 铁矿石 周三，铁矿期货价格窄幅震荡。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 764 元/湿吨（- 6）。普氏 62%指数 98.95 美元/吨（-1.00），月均 99.84 美元/吨。PBF 基差 100 元/吨（-2）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,434.9 万 吨，环+41.7。45 港口+247 钢厂总库存 23,418.15 万吨，环-221.98。 247 家钢企铁水日产 240.22 万吨，环+1.49。关税摩擦升级更多地是在 宏观情绪层面导致市场悲观情绪蔓延。高铁水产量与低成材需求，原料 端的矛盾继续积累。随着建材需求见顶、板材需求因关税影响增速放缓， 铁矿石将进入供应增加而需求回落的预期阶段，远月预期更弱。综上， 考虑到铁水尚未出现见顶信号以及可能的宏观政策利好，预计近期将会 小幅反弹或维持震荡走势，铁矿 09 仍以反弹空思路看待。(数据来源： 同花顺 iFinD)。 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周三，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3150 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 20 元/吨，05 合约基差 127（+6），短期行情仍然围绕关税 政策上下 ...

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 4 月 17 日辽宁现货 14.4-15 元/公斤，较上日稳定；河南 14.6-15.3 元/公 斤，较上日稳定；四川 14.5-14.9 元/公斤，较上日稳定；广东 15.1-15.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价趋稳。4 月生猪供应增加，且生猪体重 偏高，目前肥标价差收缩，前期压栏以及二育养殖户出栏意愿增强，而终端 消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压。但行业有利润，规模企业多 控重出栏，且肥标价差仍为正，养殖端惜售、二次育肥逢低进场仍存以及中 央冻猪肉储备带动屠企分割入库需求，均支撑价格，短期猪价震荡整理，关 注企业出栏节奏、二育和屠宰冻品入库情况。中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平稳情况下，4-9 月供应呈 增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度 出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局 下，猪价下跌风险加剧，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品入库以及饲料价 格波动对价格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑，2 月回升，接近均衡区间上 限，供应压力 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 报道称欧美贸易谈判陷入僵局，欧盟预计美国不会撤销对欧大部分关税。中 国与越南发布关于持续深化全面战略合作伙伴关系、加快构建具有战略意义 的中越命运共同体的联合声明。关税博弈仍多，中国与越南、马来西亚、柬 埔寨的谈判或较顺利，股市成交缩量，日内公布一季度 GDP 等重要数据，股 指或震荡运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 经历了今年一季度的行情后，尽管眼下对货币宽松的呼声较高，但在当前资 金利率水平和理性的资金预期下，短端品种的下行仍然并非一蹴而就，市场 往往在中性和过度乐观中来回摇摆。经历了此前关税摩擦反转再反转的高波 行情后，债市整体进入了更为冷静的震荡期，投资者的关注焦点也重新回到 资金面以及基本面。震荡行情中，节奏或许比方向本身更为重要，对区间上 下沿以及行情空间的把握也就显得更为关键。 ◆ 策略建议： 短期看好 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021839 研究员： 张志恒 从业编号：F03102085 投资咨询编号：Z0 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 4 月 16 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡运行 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： 区间运行，建议区间交易 | | | ◆铝： | 适度低多 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： | 区间操作 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间操作 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： 看涨期权空头持有。 | | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 剧烈震荡 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡走强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： 近月支持较强，远月逢高偏空 | | | ◆玉米： | ...

◆ PVC： 4 月 15 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 4931 元/吨（-20），常州市场价 4820 元/吨（-20），主力基差-111 元/吨（0），广州市场价 4940 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4880 元/吨（-20）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2550 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比小（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多，出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性 恢复，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。经过上周贸易战激烈期后，当前宏 观悲观情绪有所缓解，PVC 估值偏低，盘面存弱反弹。重点关注关税谈 判进展、国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激 政策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化，盘 面进一步承压。 ◆ 烧碱： 4 月 15 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 2425 元/吨（+24），山东市场主流价 770 元/ ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：承压下行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。对等关税政策调整，除了中国，美国宣布 对大部分国家暂停 90 天关税，并且在此期间大幅降低"对等关税"至 10%，目前中美博弈进入激烈阶段，面对出口严峻的形势，认为 4 月开 始进入压力冲击阶段，二季度不乐观。到了下半年，我们要面对几个变 数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉 花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新 年度棉花丰产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 9 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The steel market is affected by the China-US trade friction. The direct export impact of tariffs on steel is small, but the indirect impact is relatively large. Both direct and indirect steel exports will be affected to some extent in the future. For the steel market, it is advisable to wait and see for now [1]. - The iron ore market is facing a situation where supply is expected to increase and demand to decline. Considering factors such as high iron - water production, low finished - product demand, and potential macro - policy benefits, it is expected to have a small rebound or maintain a volatile trend in the near term, and the idea of shorting on rebounds for the 09 contract remains [1]. - The coking coal market shows a supply - demand game pattern in the short term. Market sentiment is greatly affected by the realization of terminal demand and macro - policies. Key factors to focus on include the profit - repair rhythm of downstream coking and steel enterprises, the stability of Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the upstream inventory accumulation speed [3]. - The coke market may continue the volatile trend in the short term under the support of rigid demand. However, risks such as the peak and decline of iron - water production and the impact of macro - policies on the industrial chain need to be noted. Key factors to follow are the profit - repair rhythm of steel mills, the cost change of raw coal, and the regulatory direction of policies on the black - series industrial chain [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the 05 contract was 121 (-2). The short - term market fluctuates around the tariff policy. In 2024, China's steel exports to the US were 890,000 tons, accounting for only 0.8% of the total export volume. According to Mysteel's calculation, China's indirect steel exports reached 140 million tons last year, with more than 1 million tons exported to the US. Whether fiscal and monetary policies will be introduced in China needs further observation [1]. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton (+6). The Platts 62% index was 99.95 US dollars/ton (+0.50), with a monthly average of 99.92 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 102 yuan/ton (0). The latest total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,434.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.7. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,418.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 221.98. The daily iron - water output of 247 steel enterprises was 240.22 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.49 [1]. Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic coal mines in major production areas maintain normal production, with only a few mines having phased production restrictions. Imported Mongolian coal customs clearance is under pressure. Demand: After the first price increase of coking enterprises, the replenishment of raw coal by coking enterprises is mainly for rigid demand, and the speculative demand in the market has cooled down. Steel mills mainly adopt a low - inventory procurement strategy. The coking coal market shows a supply - demand game pattern in the short term, and market sentiment is greatly affected by terminal demand and macro - policies [3]. Coke - Supply: After the first price increase of coking enterprises, the profitability has improved, and overall production remains stable. Coking enterprises have smooth shipments, and inventory pressure has eased. Demand: Steel mills maintain a high blast - furnace operating rate, but the replenishment rhythm has become more cautious. The coke market may continue to fluctuate in the short term under rigid demand, but risks such as the decline of iron - water production and the impact of macro - policies need to be noted [4]. Industry and Economic News - In the first quarter of 2025, Vale's total iron ore production was 6.7664 million tons, a 20.7% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 4.5% decrease year - on - year. The total sales volume was 6.6141 million tons, an 18.5% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 3.6% increase year - on - year. Rio Tinto's iron ore production in the Pilbara region in the first quarter of 2025 was 6.98 million tons, a 19% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 10% decrease year - on - year. The shipment volume was 7.07 million tons, a 17% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 9% decrease year - on - year [6]. - China and Vietnam issued a joint statement on deepening the comprehensive strategic partnership and accelerating the construction of a China - Vietnam community with a shared future. They will accelerate the docking of development strategies and promote infrastructure connectivity [6]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that the J2604 contract of coke futures will be listed for trading on April 16, with a listing benchmark price of 1647.5 yuan/ton [6]. - In early April, key steel enterprises produced 21.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.197 million tons, a 3.4% increase in daily output compared with the previous period. The steel inventory was 16.04 million tons, an 810,000 - ton increase compared with the previous ten - day period, a 5.3% increase [6]. - From April 7 to April 13, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.3199 million square meters, a 18.4% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 18.6% decrease year - on - year. The total transaction area of second - hand housing was 2.6587 million square meters, a 39.5% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 24.5% increase year - on - year [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The tariff war between the US and China has a significant impact on the non - ferrous metals market, with macro factors bringing continuous influence. Different metals have different price trends and investment suggestions due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and tariff impacts [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE copper 05 contract rose 0.16% to 75,970 yuan/ton. Tariff issues initially led to a sharp decline in copper prices and then a rebound. Fundamentally, downstream restocking was active when prices fell, but copper concentrate supply was still tight. Satellite data showed a significant decline in global copper smelting activities in March. The previous tight supply expectation in China may change. In the long - term, tariff impacts may lower market demand and the copper price center may shift down. Next week, SHFE copper will maintain a wide - range and relatively strong oscillation, and interval trading is recommended [2] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell, and trading was weak. Sellers tried to maintain prices, while downstream buyers pressed prices and made few purchases [8] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,840 tons to 92,209 tons, and LME copper inventories increased by 4,650 tons to 212,475 tons [18] Aluminum - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE aluminum 06 contract fell 0.61% to 19,595 yuan/ton. Ore supply improved and prices declined. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 4.9 million tons to 86.15 million tons, and inventory increased by 53,000 tons to 3.443 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 35,000 tons to 4.4079 million tons. Domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates decreased, and inventory declined on Monday. Due to the uncertainty of US tariff policies, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to policy changes [3] - In the spot market, aluminum prices fell, trading was not good, sellers tried to maintain prices, and downstream demand slightly recovered. In the afternoon, the market turned to a wait - and - see attitude, and overall trading was limited [9] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,524 tons to 101,189 tons, and LME aluminum inventories decreased by 825 tons to 439,325 tons [18] Nickel - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE nickel 05 contract rose 1.05% to 124,240 yuan/ton. The US consumer confidence index declined, and tariff policies damaged the global trade environment. Nickel ore costs increased, and supply was affected by rainfall in the Philippines. In March, national refined nickel production increased by 39.12% year - on - year, with an oversupply situation. Nickel iron prices corrected, and the oversupply pattern expanded. In April, 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The market was in the off - season. Sulfuric acid nickel costs increased, but demand was weak. As nickel has fallen close to the cost line, it is recommended to wait and see [4][6] - In the spot market, nickel prices rose. The ccmn Yangtze River Composite 1 nickel price was 123,400 - 127,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 125,450 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan from the previous day [15] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 237 tons to 25,884 tons, and LME nickel inventories decreased by 1,554 tons to 202,818 tons [18] Tin - As of April 15, the closing price of the main SHFE tin 05 contract fell 0.31% to 258,990 yuan/ton. The upcoming resumption of production in Congo put pressure on prices. In March, domestic refined tin production increased by 7.3% month - on - month. Tin concentrate imports from January to February decreased by 13% year - on - year. Indonesian refined tin exports increased in February. The semiconductor industry was expected to recover. Inventories were at a medium level. It is expected that price fluctuations will increase, and interval operation is recommended, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 05 contract being 240,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [7] - In the spot market, tin prices fell, and trading was limited as merchants mainly waited and saw [16] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 146 tons to 9,670 tons, and LME tin inventories decreased by 245 tons to 2,845 tons [18] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead) Zinc - In the spot market, zinc prices fell. Zinc price declines stimulated restocking, and spot premiums strengthened, but trading sentiment was weak, and restocking volumes were limited [12] - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts increased by 775 tons to 7,658 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased by 5,275 tons to 112,025 tons [18] Lead - In the spot market, lead prices fell, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs, with overall flat consumption [13][14] - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 145 tons to 58,378 tons, and LME lead inventories increased by 8,225 tons to 265,550 tons [18] Alumina - On April 15, alumina prices in different regions remained unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot market was lightly traded, sellers maintained prices, and downstream buyers mainly pressed prices for rigid - need purchases [10][11]

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 4 月 16 日辽宁现货 14.5-15.1 元/公斤，较上日跌 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.6- 15.3 元/公斤，较上日跌 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.5-14.9 元/公斤，较上日稳 定；广东 15.1-15.6 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价北跌南稳。4 月生 猪供应增加，且生猪体重偏高，目前肥标价差收缩，前期压栏以及二育养殖 户出栏意愿增强，而终端消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压。但 行业有利润，规模企业多控重出栏，且肥标价差仍为正，养殖端惜售、二次 育肥逢低进场仍存以及中央冻猪肉储备带动屠企分割入库需求，均支撑价 格，短期猪价震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育和屠宰冻品入库情况。中 长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情平 稳情况下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费 淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价下跌风险加剧，关注二育介入造成供应后 移、冻品入库以及饲料价格波动对价格的扰动；12-1 月产能小幅下滑 ...