Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate, while treasury bonds are expected to rise in the short - term [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar, iron ore, and coking coal and coke are all in a state of oscillation. It is advisable to wait and see for rebar and iron ore [1][7][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, consider moderately building long positions after the market panic subsides; for aluminum, strengthen observation; for nickel, wait and see or short on rallies; for tin, conduct range - bound operations; for gold and silver, build long positions at low prices after sufficient price corrections [1][12][18][19] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, and methanol are all in a state of oscillation. Hold short positions in call options for soda ash [1][21][23][25][27] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate sharply, apples are expected to strengthen in oscillation, and PTA is expected to weaken in oscillation [1][28][29] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs are expected to weaken in oscillation, eggs have strong support in the near - term and are bearish in the far - term, corn is expected to strengthen in oscillation, soybean meal is weak in the near - term and strong in the far - term, and oils are expected to weaken in oscillation [1][32][33][34][36][37] Core Views The report analyzes the market trends of various futures products based on factors such as tariff policies, supply and demand, and macro - economic conditions. Tariff policies have a significant impact on the market, increasing market volatility and uncertainty. Supply and demand fundamentals also play a crucial role in determining product prices, and different products show different trends due to their own supply - demand characteristics. Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors such as US inflation, tariff wars, and external market fluctuations, index futures are expected to oscillate [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: With increasing external uncertainties, the expectation of loose monetary policy is strengthening. The short - and medium - term is more certain, while the long - term is more volatile and may require the catalysis of domestic loose policies to break through the previous low [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Although the direct impact of tariffs on steel exports is small, the indirect impact is relatively large. The short - term market fluctuates with tariff policies, and it is advisable to wait and see [7] - **Iron Ore**: Supply is strong, and the growth rate of molten iron is expected to slow down. Affected by foreign tariff policies and domestic policy expectations, it is advisable to wait and see during the roll - over period [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance in the short - term, but the upward price resistance is increasing. The coke market is in a stalemate between policy negatives and industrial games, and the price fluctuation intensifies [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The tariff war has increased the probability of a global economic recession, causing copper prices to decline. However, the long - term demand logic remains, and the short - term fundamentals still have resilience [12] - **Aluminum**: The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and the demand of downstream processing enterprises is declining. It is recommended to strengthen observation and pay attention to policy changes [14] - **Nickel**: Affected by factors such as US economic data, tax policies, and supply - demand conditions, nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound trading [16][17] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover, which will support demand. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices [18] - **Gold and Silver**: The tariff war has increased market panic, causing price corrections. However, central bank gold purchases, industrial demand, and hedging sentiment support prices. It is recommended to build long positions at low prices after sufficient price corrections [19][20] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is weak, and the supply pressure is large. The short - term is affected by macro factors such as tariff wars and domestic stimulus policies [21] - **Caustic Soda**: The profit is neutral, the inventory is high, and the later trend is cautiously bearish. It is necessary to pay attention to factors such as inventory and alumina production [23] - **Rubber**: The short - term is affected by tariff policies, and the long - term fundamentals are weak, with inventory accumulation [23] - **Urea**: The supply is in a loose pattern, and the demand is relatively stable. The price fluctuates widely under the influence of market sentiment and fundamentals [25] - **Methanol**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand of the main downstream is good, but there are maintenance plans. It is expected to oscillate widely [26] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and although the demand is improving, the price is still under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [27] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Affected by Trump's tariff policies, the market is uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see [28][29] - **Apples**: The inventory is low, and the price is expected to strengthen in oscillation, but macro risks need to be paid attention to [29] - **PTA**: The cost collapses due to factors such as US tariff policies, and although the supply - demand is good, the price is not optimistic [29][30][31] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply increases in the short - and long - term, and the demand is limited. The price is under pressure, but there is also some support. It is recommended to short on rallies [32][33] - **Eggs**: The supply pressure is large in the short - term, but it is marginally improved. The long - term supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to wait and see in the near - term and be bearish in the far - term [33] - **Corn**: The short - term has support, and the long - term supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to go long on dips and conduct positive spreads [34][35] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term is under pressure due to abundant supply, and the long - term is expected to strengthen due to factors such as tariff policies and supply - demand changes. It is recommended to be cautious in the near - term and go long in the far - term [36][37] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand, and reports, the short - term may rebound slightly, and the long - term may first decline and then rebound. It is recommended to wait and see and conduct positive spreads for the price difference [37][38][39][40][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating - For stock index futures, the strategy is to expect a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] Core Views Stock Index - US inflation cooled more than expected, with the March CPI down 0.1% month - on - month, the lowest in nearly five years, and the core CPI up 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest growth rate in four years. China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the tariff issue negotiation with the US. The domestic stock market has been strong recently, but some investors may take profits after consecutive gains due to the impact of the external market. The second - stage competition of the tariff war has begun, and there will be more subsequent games. Stock index futures may operate in a volatile manner [1] Treasury Bond - The previous monetary policy was firm. With the increasing external uncertainties, the expectation of loose money has become more solid. Coupled with the abundant lending by large banks in the past two days, the capital interest rate has steadily declined, and the liquidity has improved. The market is betting on the approaching of loose monetary policy, and the yield curve is more likely to steepen. The certainty of the short - to - medium - term is relatively stronger. Although the long - end lacks the basis for a significant upward movement, it is affected by external tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of negotiations between countries, with significantly increased volatility and more repeated trends. Overall, the long - end interest rate may need the catalysis of the substantial implementation of domestic loose policies to break through the previous low [2] Market Review Stock Index - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 1.46%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.74%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.86%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 2.33% [4] Treasury Bond - The 10 - year main contract fell 0.005%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.07%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.24%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [6] Technical Analysis Stock Index - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is operating weakly in a volatile manner [5] Treasury Bond - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is operating strongly in a volatile manner [7] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3673.00 | 1.459 | 83748 | 141689 | | 2025/04/10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2582.20 | 0.741 | 43873 | 48237 | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5509.00 | 1.860 | 60899 | 65270 | | 2025/04/10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5578.20 | 2.334 | 222566 | 174420 | | 2025/04/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | - 0.005 | 84854 | 188699 | | 2025/04/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.50 | 0.066 | 69578 | 180190 | | 2025/04/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.87 | - 0.241 | 131204 | 102587 | | 2025/04/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.70 | 0.029 | 43868 | 112006 | [9]

4 月 11 日辽宁现货 14.1-14.6 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；河南 14.4- 15.1 元/公斤，较上日涨 0.1 元/公斤；四川 14.2-14.6 元/公斤，较上日稳 定；广东 15.3-15.8 元/公斤，较上日稳定，今日早间猪价北涨南稳定。4 月 生猪供应增加，钢联数据 4 月重点省份养殖企业生猪计划出栏量环比增 3.25%，且生猪体重偏高，目前肥标价差收缩，前期压栏以及二育养殖户出 栏意愿增强，而终端消费增量有限，屠企大多亏损，猪价上方承压。但行业 有利润，规模企业多控重出栏，且肥标价差仍为正，养殖端惜售、二次育肥 逢低进场仍存以及屠宰企业也会考虑冻品入库，均支撑价格，短期猪价在 14 元/公斤附近震荡整理，关注企业出栏节奏、二育和屠宰冻品入库情况。 中长期来看，能繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升，在疫情 平稳情况下，4-9 月供应呈增加态势，根据仔猪数据和存栏结构，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，2 月中大猪存栏占比增长，二季度出栏压力 仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价下 跌风险加剧，关注二育介入 ...

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 黄尚海 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 棉纺团队 研究员： ◆ 棉花：承压下行 洪润霞 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。对等关税政策调整，除了中国，美国宣布 对大部分国家暂停 90 天关税，并且在此期间大幅降低"对等关税"至 10%，目前中美博弈进入激烈阶段，面对出口严峻的形势，认为 4 月开 始进入压力冲击阶段，二季度不乐观。到了下半年，我们要面对几个变 数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉 花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新 ...

简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业日报 周四，螺纹钢期货价格大幅反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3180 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 40 元/吨，05 合约基差 119（-8），特朗普宣布暂停多数国家 90 天关税、提高中国关税税率至 125%，外盘大涨，钢价跟随反弹。就钢材 而言，关税对直接出口影响不大，2024 年中国对美钢材出口量 89 万吨， 仅占出口总量的 0.8%，不过间接影响相对较大，根据 Mysteel 测算，去 年我国钢铁间接出口量达到 1.4 亿吨，其中对美国出口达到 1000 多万 吨，叠加部分转出口也受到影响，因此后期钢材直接与间接出口均会受 到一定冲击。国内除了关税反击以外，是否会出台财政与货币政策需要 进一步观察。短期来看，行情跟随关税政策上下波动，暂时观望为宜。 (数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿期货价格大幅反弹，中国反制关税再加征 50%，市场波动率 提高。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 764 元/湿吨（+20）。普氏 62%指数 98.35 美元/吨（+2.60），月均 100.17 美元/吨。PBF 基差 98 元/吨 （+4）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿 ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 10 日收盘，沪铜主力 05 合约上涨 3.86%至 75300 元/吨。美 宣布延后大部分经济体的对等关税征收 90 天，给市场带来短期利好，铜 价有所回升。现货市场，铜价大幅走低，刺激下游消费，下游低价入市 采购情绪回升，现货价格支撑明显，升贴水升水企稳为主，不过多数下 游仍维持谨慎态度，后续消费有进一步释放的可能，现货库存或将持续 去库。铜精矿现货 TC 维持负值且再度扩大，矿供应风波尚未解除，但炼 厂得益于副产品收益高位，近期产量继续保持高位。二季度国内炼厂检 修或致产量下滑，叠加原料端与库存减少，虽然对等关税风波风险情绪 较此前略微缓解，但中美摩擦升级，或令铜价波动风险加剧。 ◆ 铝： 截至 4 月 10 日收盘，沪铝主力 05 合约上涨 1.85%至 19805 元/吨。整 体矿端供应逐步好转、价格逐步下行。氧化铝运行产能周度环比下降 25 万吨至 9105 万吨，氧化铝库存周度环比增加 2 万吨至 339 万吨。氧化 铝厂检修减产继续增加，当前减产产能已达 200 万吨，预计 4 月中旬减 产规模可能达到 500 万吨左右。山东某 150 万吨氢氧 ...

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： ◆ 烧碱： 4 月 10 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 2355 元/吨（0），山东市场主流价 780 元/吨（-25），折百 2438 元/吨（-78），液氯山东 100 元/吨（-50）。 4 月 10 日开始，山东地区某氧化铝厂家采购 32%离子膜碱价格下调 25 元 /吨，执行出厂 740 元/（折百 2312 元/吨）。截至 20250403，隆众资讯 统计全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 47.77 万吨(湿吨)， 环比下跌 2.99%，同比上调 12.07%。目前看利润中性、库存偏高，后期 检修装置存恢复预期，氧化铝利润走弱，边际产能减产增多，非铝需求 弹性不足。后期出口签单或有改善，后期液氯或存跌价预期，盘面下行 亦偏谨慎，谨慎偏弱。继续关注魏桥送货量，库存去化情况。中期关注 氧化铝投产开工和出口情况，关注 6-8 月检修规模和持续性。 ◆ 橡胶： 4 月 10 日橡胶系 BR、NR、RU 均偏强运行，主要由于 4 月 10 日凌晨关税 暂停，宏观风险偏好有提升，油价上涨。后面关注关税进一步演绎情况。 基本面目前开割进行中、国内港口现货流通 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term bullish on bonds [3] Core Views - For stock indices, the US has postponed some tariffs and announced a 90 - day tariff suspension for some countries. The EU has voted to impose a 25% tariff counter - measure on the US, mainly targeting US steel and aluminum tariffs. China has imposed an additional 50% tariff on all imported goods from the US and included 12 US entities in the export control list. Although the offshore RMB has risen sharply, the tariff war competition is not over, and there will be more subsequent games. Stock indices may fluctuate [1]. - For treasury bonds, rumors about a press conference on Friday led to a surge in market expectations of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, causing treasury bond futures to rise sharply. However, the rumors were later refuted, and the futures prices dropped. Overall, the tariff game is still volatile, and the capital market volatility remains high. Before the risk premium is fully priced, the bond market will maintain high volatility and may show a two - way wide - range shock pattern [2]. Market Review Stock Indices - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 2.13%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 1.86%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 2.98%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 3.02% [4]. Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.09%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.12%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.16%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.09% [6]. Technical Analysis Stock Indices - The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is oscillating weakly [5]. Treasury Bonds - The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating strongly [7]. Strategy Suggestions - Stock indices are expected to oscillate [1] - Short - term bullish on treasury bonds [3] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Increase/Decrease (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/04/09 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3614.00 | 2.13 | 115307 | 150590 | | 2025/04/09 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2564.20 | 1.86 | 65219 | 58795 | | 2025/04/09 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5387.20 | 2.98 | 89534 | 77524 | | 2025/04/09 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 5429.60 | 3.02 | 307215 | 184548 | | 2025/04/09 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 109.04 | 0.09 | 94916 | 192698 | | 2025/04/09 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 106.43 | 0.12 | 71227 | 176560 | | 2025/04/09 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 120.33 | 0.16 | 150577 | 104799 | | 2025/04/09 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.68 | 0.09 | 57082 | 108388 | [9]

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周三，螺纹钢期货价格探底回升，杭州中天螺纹钢 3140 元/吨，较前一 日下跌 20 元/吨，05 合约基差 127（+6），美国提高对等关税至 84%， 国内进行反制，对所有美国进口商品再加征 50%关税。就钢材而言，关 税对直接出口影响不大，2024 年中国对美钢材出口量 89 万吨，仅占出 口总量的 0.8%，不过间接影响相对较大，根据 Mysteel 测算，去年我国 钢铁间接出口量达到 1.4 亿吨，其中对美国出口达到 1000 多万吨，叠加 部分转出口也受到影响，因此后期钢材直接与间接出口均会受到一定冲 击。国内除了关税反击以外，是否会出台财政与货币政策需要进一步观 察。短期来看，一方面市场情绪受到冲击，另一方面钢材实际需求承压， 预计钢价震荡偏弱运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周三，铁矿期货价格探底回升，中国反制关税再加征 50%，市场波动率 提高。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 747 元/湿吨（-21）。普氏 62%指数 95.75 美元/吨（+0.10），月均 100.43 美元/吨。PBF 基差 94 元/吨（- 2）。供 ...

产业服务总部 有色金属团队 2025-04-10 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 9 日收盘，沪铜主力 05 合约下跌 1.78%至 72130 元/吨。美 国推出对等关税政策，加征程度超预期，美国所有进口商品的实际关税 税率将从 2024 年年底的 2.3%升至 26%左右，达到 131 年来的最高水 平。其中今年对中国加征的关税就达到 54%若加上 2018 年美国对中国 加征的关税水平，已经显著超过 70%.。美国挑起的关税战加大了全球经 济衰退的概率，市场对美国经济将进入袁退的预期升温，市场恐慌情绪 周末二次发酵引发全球各类资产遭受无差别抛售，主要经济体股市，以 及重要大宗商品价格短期重挫。对冲基金为避免组合头寸爆仓大幅抛售 黄金等高位头寸，铜价也同样深度回撤。关税引发衰退的担忧，但铜长 期的需求逻辑仍在，铜矿及原料供应维持紧张，炼厂仍面临较大的原料 保供和保本压力，短期基本面仍有韧性，铜跌至 73000 一线后或将整固 回稳。不过关税扰动风险仍未完全释放，贸易战有螺旋加码的可能，后 续对经济层面的冲击仍 ...