长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-06-09 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝周报 01 周度观点 几内亚AXIS矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，博法地区两家矿企发货中断，另一家矿企仅依靠码头剩余库存维持发货。几内 亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击，其影响要等到7月份才能体现在进口铝土矿的到港量上。氧化铝运行 产能周度环比增加135万吨至9065万吨，全国氧化铝库存周度环比减少2.9万吨至313.3万吨。随着检修式减产产能的逐步复产，以 及部分新产能的逐步释放，氧化铝运行产能逐步回升。不过几内亚矿端扰动尚未体现到氧化铝的生产，影响仍不可忽视。电解铝运 行产能周度环比持平于4413.9万吨。四川省内铝企复产基本完成，贵州安顺铝厂剩余6万吨产能仍在复产，云铝溢鑫置换产能投产 中，百色银海技改项目12万吨产能将于三季度通电复产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比下降0.5%至60.9%。 光伏抢装机退坡和淡季逐步到来，铝下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Plastic - Market expectations are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the fundamentals maintain a pattern of high production capacity, low profit, and weak demand. It is expected that the plastic 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7100 [4]. PP - Inventory accumulates, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The short - term cost of international oil price increases may support the price, but the supply - side benefits are offset, and the demand is weak. The inventory accumulation exerts great pressure on the market. It is expected that PP2509 will maintain a weakly fluctuating trend in the short term, with a reference range of 6850 - 7200 [6]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 106 yuan/ton from last week. LDPE average price was 9216.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%. HDPE average price was 8062.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7414.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%. The LLDPE South China basis was 348.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 19.10%, and the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27) [4][8]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PE was - 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PE was 1212 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from last week [4]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate of Chinese polyethylene was 77.41%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 59.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.43%. The maintenance loss this week was 12.04 tons, a decrease of 1.47 tons from last week [4]. - **Demand**: The overall domestic agricultural film start - up rate was 12.89%, a decrease of 0.09% from last week. The PE packaging film start - up rate was 48.89%, an increase of 0.30% from last week, and the PE pipe start - up rate was 30.83%, a decrease of 1.00% from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 58.27 tons, a decrease of 1.71 tons from last week [4]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 6 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 8 yuan/ton (a change of 35 yuan/ton); the 6 - 9 month spread was - 37 yuan/ton (- 27); the 9 - 1 month spread was 29 yuan/ton (- 8) [15]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different varieties and regions of polyethylene showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [16][17]. - **Cost**: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [19]. - **Profit**: It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE and coal - based PE will run weakly [22]. - **Supply**: The production start - up rate increased, and the output increased slightly. There were many maintenance losses this week [25]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Many companies have new production capacity plans in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 [27]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple enterprises had equipment maintenance, with different parking and start - up times [28]. - **Demand**: The agricultural film peak season has passed, and the start - up rates of packaging film and pipes are average. The market trading atmosphere is light [29]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: The production ratio of linear film is the highest, and there are differences between the current ratios of some products and the annual average levels [33]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises decreased [35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 5254 hands, a decrease of 5 hands from last week [42]. PP Market Changes - On June 6, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week. The polypropylene market first fell and then rose this week, with the price center of gravity moving slightly downward and the amplitude narrowing [46]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 64.77 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 3.98 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.65 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.04 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged). The profit of oil - based PP was 31.70 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.54 yuan/ton from last week, and the profit of coal - based PP was 914.60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.95 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 75.44%, a decrease of 1.39 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 75.83 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 7.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.57% [6]. - **Demand**: The average downstream start - up rate was 50.01% (- 0.28%). The start - up rate of plastic weaving was 44.70% (- 0.50%), the start - up rate of BOPP was 60.41% (+ 0.65%), the start - up rate of injection molding was 56.09% (- 0.08%), and the start - up rate of pipes was 36.13% (- 0.14%) [6]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polypropylene inventory was 60.51 tons (+ 9.36%), with an overall increase in inventory pressure. The inventory of two major oil companies increased by 11.03% month - on - month, the inventory of traders increased by 8.45% month - on - month, and the port inventory increased by 2.31% month - on - month [6]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of different PP products and related products showed different changes [47]. - **Basis**: On June 6, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 7380 yuan/ton (- 13.33), with a slight month - on - month increase. The PP basis was 455 yuan/ton (- 63), and the basis strengthened. The 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the month spread widened [49]. - **Month - spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on June 6, 2025, was 9 yuan/ton (a change of 24 yuan/ton); the 5 - 9 month spread was - 57 yuan/ton (1); the 9 - 1 month spread was 48 yuan/ton (- 25) [56]. - **Cost**: Crude oil prices rebounded, and it is expected to maintain a low - level fluctuating trend. The anthracite market was weak [58]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP and coal - based PP decreased [60]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate decreased, but the output of pellets and powder increased [64]. - **2025 Second - Quarter Production Plan**: Multiple enterprises have new production capacity plans in the second quarter of 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 427.5 [68]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' production lines have long - term or short - term maintenance, with many of the start - up times undetermined [70]. - **Demand**: The overall downstream start - up rate decreased slightly, and the start - up rates of different industries showed different changes [72]. - **Demand (Product Proportion)**: The proportions of different PP products showed different changes [75]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene was - 569.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 26.34 US dollars/ton from last week. The export profit was 6.78 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.52 US dollars/ton from last week. The import window is closed, and the export window is open [76]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polypropylene inventory increased, and the inventories of different sectors all increased. The finished product inventory of large plastic - weaving enterprises decreased, and the BOPP raw material inventory decreased [78][81]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 6, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 4885 hands, a decrease of 149 hands from last week [85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pig Market**: In the short - term, the pig market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, with prices likely to decline but limited by factors like secondary fattening and low frozen product inventory. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large, and the forward price rebound is under pressure. The futures market is expected to be in a low - level shock in the short - term [1]. - **Egg Market**: Short - term egg prices lack support due to weak post - festival demand. In the third quarter, supply and demand both increase, and price rebound is under pressure. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure may ease [2]. - **Oil Market**: The current oil market shows differentiation. Palm oil is relatively strong, but the overall inventory accumulation trend in Malaysia restricts its rise. Soybean oil has supply pressure and uncertainty about biodiesel policies. Rapeseed oil has price support from the relationship between China and Canada, but there is short - term supply pressure [5][6][7]. - **Soybean Meal Market**: In the short - term, the soybean meal market is expected to be in a wide - range shock. In the long - term, due to factors such as increased import costs and tightened supply and demand, the price is expected to rise steadily [8][9]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the corn price has support, and the futures price is expected to be in a high - level shock. In the long - term, the supply and demand are marginally tightened, but the price increase space is limited by substitutes [9]. 3. Summary by Product Pig - **Spot Price**: On June 6, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, and Sichuan decreased by 0.1 yuan/kg compared to the previous day, while the price in Guangdong remained stable [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In June, the supply pressure is large, and the seasonal demand is weak. In the long - term, the supply from June to September 2024 is increasing, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures market is in a low - level shock in the short - term. It is recommended to short at the rebound pressure level [1]. Egg - **Spot Price**: On June 6, the prices in Shandong Dezhou and Beijing decreased compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Short - term demand is weak after the Dragon Boat Festival. In the medium - term, the supply in July - August 2025 is expected to increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 08 and 09 contracts, it is recommended to hedge when the price rebounds. For the 10 contract, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Oil - **Palm Oil**: On June 5, the Malaysian palm oil futures price decreased. The export in May improved, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. In the long - term, the inventory accumulation trend remains. The 08 contract is in a shock stage after the rebound [3][5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The EPA is about to announce the US biofuel blending plan. The US soybean fundamentals are mixed. The domestic soybean to - port volume is large, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strong [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The supply and demand of Canadian rapeseed are tightening. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level, and the price has support from the relationship between China and Canada [7]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a range shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil - meal ratio short - selling strategy [8]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Price**: On June 5, the domestic soybean meal spot price was 2790 yuan/ton, and the basis was 09 - 170 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the US soybean is expected to be in a shock. The domestic soybean supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to rise steadily [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract is recommended to operate in the range of [2930, 3000] in the short - term and go long after the callback in mid - June [9]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On June 5, the new corn purchase price in Jinzhou Port remained stable, and the price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao decreased by 6 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the price has support. In the long - term, the supply and demand are marginally tightened, but the price increase space is limited by substitutes [9]. - **Strategy**: The overall trend is expected to be stable and upward. The 07 contract is in a high - level shock, and it is recommended to go long at the lower edge of the range. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 4. Today's Futures Market Overview | Product | Previous Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Two Days Ago Trading Day Price (Closing Price) | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active (US cents/bushel) | 1,050.50 | 1,044.75 | 5.75 | | Soybean Meal Main (Yuan/ton) | 2,958 | 2,939 | 19.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal (Yuan/ton) | 2,900 | 2,900 | 0.00 | | CBOT Corn Active (US cents/bushel) | 438.25 | 438.00 | 0.25 | | Corn Main (Yuan/ton) | 2,335 | 2,333 | 2.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot (Yuan/ton) | 2,330 | 2,330 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active (US cents/pound) | 46.62 | 46.72 | - 0.10 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil (Yuan/ton) | 7,980 | 8,000 | - 20.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active (Ringgit/ton) | 3,904 | 3,950 | - 46.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot (Yuan/ton) | 8,530 | 8,600 | - 70.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active (Canadian dollars/ton) | 695.10 | 699.80 | - 4.70 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot (Yuan/ton) | 9,160 | 9,160 | 0.00 | | Egg Main (Yuan/500 kg) | 2,878 | 2,877 | 1.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot (Yuan/jin) | 2.70 | 2.70 | 0.00 | | Pig Futures Main (Yuan/ton) | 13,485 | 13,490 | - 5.00 | | Henan Pig Spot (Yuan/kg) | 14.21 | 14.21 | 0.00 | [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern due to limited upside and downside space, influenced by factors such as tariff concerns, supply disruptions, and inventory levels [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors like tariff hikes, the decline of photovoltaic installations, and the arrival of the off - season [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to have limited downside due to cost support but are likely to be weak and volatile in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [4]. - Tin prices are expected to be volatile, and range trading is recommended, with attention on supply resumption and downstream demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: As of June 5, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract closed at 78,170 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. Tariff issues add negative sentiment. The upstream copper concentrate market is quiet, and the TC price is stable. The Kankola mine earthquake may impact supply. Downstream demand is average, and post - holiday copper price upside is limited, but so is the downside [1]. - **Aluminum**: As of June 5, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract closed at 20,010 yuan/ton, down 0.02%. The Guinea AXIS mine is restricted, and its impact on imports will be seen in July. Alumina production capacity is increasing, and electrolytic aluminum production capacity is also rising. Demand is weakening, and short - term aluminum prices are expected to be weak [2][3]. - **Nickel**: As of June 5, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract closed at 121,570 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The Indonesian nickel ore market is tight, but downstream demand is weak, and the overall situation is one of supply surplus, with prices expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - **Tin**: As of June 5, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract closed at 258,900 yuan/ton, up 1.47%. The price rebounded due to slower - than - expected resumption in Myanmar. Supply is improving but limited, and prices are expected to be volatile [5]. Spot Transaction Summary - **Copper**: Domestic spot copper prices fell, and the market was quiet with low demand and limited future demand growth [6]. - **Aluminum**: Spot aluminum prices fell, and the market was bearish. Sellers accelerated sales, and demand was mainly for basic needs, resulting in light trading [7]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices were stable, and the market was moderately active, with limited demand growth [8]. - **Zinc**: Spot zinc prices fell, and the market was quiet, with high premiums supporting sellers [9][10]. - **Lead**: Spot lead prices rose, and demand was mainly for rigid needs, with high discounts for sellers [10][11]. - **Nickel**: Spot nickel prices fell, and downstream buyers were cautious, leading to low trading activity [12][13]. - **Tin**: Spot tin prices rose, and downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices [14]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - **SHFE**: Copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while zinc futures warehouse receipts increased, and lead futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. - **LME**: Copper, tin, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased, while lead and zinc inventories increased [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index: Bullish with fluctuations [5] - Treasury bonds: Neutral [5] - Rebar: Neutral [7] - Iron ore: Neutral [7] - Coking coal and coke: Neutral [8][9] - Copper: Neutral [11] - Aluminum: Bearish [13] - Nickel: Neutral [15] - Tin: Neutral [17] - Gold: Neutral [18] - Silver: Neutral [18] - PVC: Bearish [21] - Soda ash: Bearish for the 01 contract [33] - Caustic soda: Bearish [23] - Styrene: Bearish [26] - Rubber: Bearish [28] - Urea: Bearish [30] - Methanol: Bearish [31] - Polyolefins: Neutral [32] - Cotton and cotton yarn: Bullish with fluctuations [35] - Apples: Neutral [35] - PTA: Neutral [36] - Live pigs: Bearish [38] - Eggs: Bearish [40] - Corn: Bullish with fluctuations [41] - Soybean meal: Bullish [42] - Oils and fats: Neutral [46] Core Views - The index may fluctuate strongly due to increased market trading volume and a shift in hotspots from new consumption to the TMT sector after the China-US leaders' call [5] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, with short - term varieties benefiting directly from the current relatively loose policy, but multiple disturbing factors still exist [5] - The prices of most commodities in the black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton textile industry chain, and agricultural livestock sectors are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a downward or upward trend depending on supply - demand fundamentals, macro - policies, and other factors [7][11][21] Summary by Category Macro - finance - Index: Expected to fluctuate strongly due to China - US relations and market hot - spot shifts [5] - Treasury bonds: Suggested to wait and see. Focus on the roll - over of the 0.7 trillion 6M repurchase on the 16th [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The price is at a relatively low level, and the supply - demand is balanced. It may accumulate inventory slightly in the future, with a suggested wait - and - see approach [7] - Iron ore: The price is affected by macro news, and the port inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - Coking coal and coke: The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the price may fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to supply - side news, profit - repair rhythm, and import coal costs [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The fundamentals still support the price, and it may remain volatile before the holiday. Pay attention to the position of nearby contracts [11] - Aluminum: The supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions in Shanghai Aluminum and try to go long on alumina at low levels [13][14] - Nickel: The cost is firm, but the medium - long - term supply is excessive. It is recommended to wait and see or go short at high prices [15] - Tin: The supply - demand gap is improving, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended for interval trading [17] - Gold and silver: Affected by US tariffs and Fed policies, the prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended for interval trading [18] Energy Chemicals - PVC: Weak cost and demand, high production and inventory. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [21] - Soda ash: The 01 contract is recommended to go short. The spot is weak, and the upward space of the futures price is limited [33] - Caustic soda: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to factors such as alumina production and 6 - 8 month maintenance [23] - Styrene: The supply - demand is becoming loose, and it is recommended to go short at high prices. Pay attention to crude oil trends and tariff progress [26] - Rubber: The demand is not improved, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to macro news [28] - Urea: The supply exceeds demand. It is not recommended to buy at the bottom. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options or waiting for price stability [30] - Methanol: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 2150 - 2300 [31] - Polyolefins: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to downstream demand and policies [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: Globally, the supply - demand is loose, but due to improved China - US relations, the price is expected to fluctuate and rebound [35] - Apples: The market is stable, and the price is expected to remain high and fluctuate [35] - PTA: Affected by falling oil prices and weakening downstream demand, the price is under short - term pressure. Pay attention to geopolitical influences [36] Agricultural Livestock - Live pigs: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to go short at resistance levels [38] - Eggs: The short - term demand is weak, and the long - term supply may increase. It is recommended to go short at high prices [40] - Corn: The short - term price has support, and the medium - long - term supply - demand is tightening. It is recommended to go long at the lower limit of the range and pay attention to substitutes [41] - Soybean meal: The short - term is range - bound, and the medium - long - term is bullish. It is recommended to operate in the range and go long after callbacks [42] - Oils and fats: The trends are differentiated. It is recommended for interval trading and pay attention to the spread between oil and meal [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Cotton is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - and medium - term, with an expected operating range of 12,000 - 13,400 yuan, and a long - term outlook with high uncertainty depending on the attitude towards reciprocal tariffs [1]. - PTA is likely to operate under pressure in the short term due to weakening supply - demand expectations [2][3]. - Ethylene glycol will trade in a range, supported by supply - demand fundamentals but facing upward pressure [3]. - Short - fiber has a bottom support, with high - level oscillation expected next week and limited downward space [4]. - Sugar will experience weak oscillations, affected by international and domestic factors with a complex situation [4][5]. - Apples will trade at a high level, with the price expected to remain in a high - level range due to low inventory [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Macro factors include the approaching June US Treasury bond maturity, an increase in net short positions in the US CFTC cotton positions, and uncertainty about reciprocal tariffs. The domestic supply of cotton is tight in the short - term, with commercial inventory at the end of August expected to be 155 million tons this year, lower than previous years. New - season global cotton production is likely to increase, with Xinjiang expected to produce 7.2 - 7.5 million tons and Brazil 3.95 million tons. In the short - and medium - term, the market is cautious during the reciprocal tariff negotiation period in June and July, and the price is expected to decline. In the long - term, the trend depends on reciprocal tariffs [1]. PTA - Crude oil prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions and wildfires in Canada. As of the 20th, the PTA spot price dropped to 4,905 yuan/ton. The domestic PTA device operating rate increased by 3.49% to 80.13%, and the polyester industry's capacity utilization rate was 89.31%, with a slowdown in inventory reduction. The polyester sales rate decreased to 34.1%. With the digestion of macro - level positives, high spot basis, and the restart of previously shut - down production enterprises, PTA supply - demand is expected to weaken [2][3]. Ethylene Glycol - International oil prices have declined, reducing the cost of ethylene glycol. On June 3, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4,478 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in the South China market, it was 4,530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; and the US dollar closing price was 520 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. Domestic production has recovered, imports are low, and demand has a high operating rate, but downstream polyester inventory building is cautious, limiting upward price movement [3]. Short - fiber - The tight supply of raw materials PX - PTA provides strong cost support. Short - fiber will follow cost increases passively next week, but downstream transmission is poor, and processing fees may continue to decline. However, some enterprises have started to cut production, limiting the downward space [4]. Sugar - Internationally, although the sugar production and sugar - making ratio in the central - southern region of Brazil have decreased year - on - year at the beginning of the new crushing season, there is still an expectation of increased production. Domestically, factors are mixed. The sales speed this season is fast, and summer consumption is driving demand, with reduced short - term import pressure. However, continuous rainfall in Guangxi has ended the previous drought speculation, and there is still long - term import pressure, so the sugar price is in a weak oscillation [4][5]. Apple - Apple inventory trading is mainly on - demand, with a stable market. In the western region, trading is stable, and in Shandong, low - price goods are in relatively high demand. With the arrival of seasonal fruits, apple sales are average. With low inventory, the price is expected to remain in a high - level range [5]. Macro and Other Information - China - US leaders had a phone call, and the US initial jobless claims reached the highest level since October last year, indicating a cooling labor market. On June 5, the China Cotton Price Index was 14,543 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan from the previous day. New - season Australian cotton production is expected to be 970,000 tons, a 21% year - on - year decrease, but export revenue may increase by 2% to 3.5 billion US dollars. In April 2025, Turkey's clothing export value was 1.2 billion US dollars, flat year - on - year and down 16% month - on - month [8][9]. - As of May 22, 2025, the average PTA processing margin was 365.57 yuan/ton, down 8.65% month - on - month and 6.82% year - on - year. The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.64%, up 0.42% month - on - month and 4.10% year - on - year [9]. - China's ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate was 52.63%, down 2.74% month - on - month. The weekly output was 316,400 tons, down 4.96% from the previous week [13]. - As of the end of May, China's monthly short - fiber output was 721,500 tons, up 6.13% month - on - month. The average capacity utilization rate was 86.14%, up 2.04 percentage points month - on - month [11]. - As of June 2, 2025, Russia's beet planting area was 1.17428 million hectares, an increase of 54,800 hectares year - on - year. India's 2024/25 sugar ending inventory is expected to be 4.865 million metric tons, and the 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach 35 million metric tons. Yunnan's 2024/2025 sugar production season ended on May 22, with 2.4188 million tons of sugar produced, up from the previous season [12][14]. - As of June 4, 2025, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 1.382 million tons, down 137,700 tons from the previous week [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is facing weak cost, demand, high production, and inventory, with a low valuation and weak driving force, expected to oscillate weakly. The caustic soda market shows a strong current situation but weak expectations, with short - term tight supply in some areas and a likely peak in spot prices, and a mid - term weakening trend. The styrene market has a high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply and demand, suggesting short - selling at high prices. The rubber market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. The urea market has an oversupply situation, and it's not advisable to bottom - fish during a unilateral decline. The methanol market is expected to oscillate, with relatively loose supply and increased downstream olefin开工率. The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. The soda ash market has limited upward space for the futures price despite short - term sentiment improvement [2][3][5]. Summary by Product PVC - **Price**: On June 5, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4747 yuan/ton (- 87), with different market prices in different regions [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Long - term demand is dragged down by the real estate industry, exports are restricted, and supply pressure is high in the third quarter. Inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is mainly driven by the macro - environment [2]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a focus on the 4800 yuan/ton line. Stimulus policies may support the price, while trade frictions may pressure it [2]. Caustic Soda - **Price**: On June 5, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2332 yuan/ton (- 35), with different market prices in Shandong [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has high - level production and new capacity expectations, and there will be a production decline during mid - June due to maintenance. Demand from the alumina industry has uncertain复产 expectations, and non - aluminum demand is affected by tariffs [3]. - **Outlook**: Short - term local supply may be tight, but the spot price is likely to peak. In the mid - term, it will oscillate weakly, and short - selling is recommended for the 09 contract, with a focus on the 2400 yuan/ton line [3]. Styrene - **Price**: On June 5, the styrene main contract was 7085 (- 5) yuan/ton, with different raw material prices [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Crude oil has short - term support and mid - term loose supply expectations. Pure benzene supply is increasing, and styrene supply is expected to recover in June. Downstream demand is weak [5]. - **Outlook**: High valuation and loose supply - demand, recommend short - selling at high prices, with a focus on the 7200 yuan/ton line [5]. Rubber - **Price and Inventory**: On June 5, the rubber market oscillated slightly. As of June 1, inventory in Qingdao decreased, and tire enterprise capacity utilization declined [6]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate widely in the short term, depending on macro - news and sentiment [6]. Urea - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The urea 09 contract fell 2.88% to 1722 yuan/ton, with a strong basis. Supply is high, and demand from agriculture and some industries is limited [7]. - **Outlook**: The oversupply situation remains unchanged. It's not advisable to bottom - fish during a decline, and the 09 contract is expected to operate between 1650 - 1850 yuan/ton [7]. Methanol - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The methanol 09 contract rose 0.49% to 2259 yuan/ton. Supply is relatively loose, and the downstream olefin开工率 increased, while traditional demand is in the off - season [8]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate, with the 09 contract operating between 2150 - 2300 yuan/ton [8]. Polyolefin - **Price and Supply - Demand**: On June 5, the L and PP main contracts had different price changes. Supply is expected to increase in the future, and demand is in the traditional off - season, with a certain inventory reduction trend [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the L2509 operating between 6950 - 7350 yuan/ton and the PP2509 between 6850 - 7200 yuan/ton [10]. Soda Ash - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The futures price rebounded at night, and the spot market is weak. Supply is increasing, and downstream demand from glass industries is poor [11]. - **Outlook**: Limited upward space for the futures price, and a short recommendation for the 01 contract [11].

简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业日报 周四，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3100 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 20 元/吨，10 合约基差 141（-5）。基本面方面，根据钢联 统计口径，螺纹钢表需环比下滑，可能有端午假期影响，不过需求季节 性走弱只是时间问题，当下长流程钢厂利润尚好、短流程利润不佳，螺 纹产量连续两周下滑，本期库存去化放缓，整体而言供需相对均衡，后 期可能小幅累库。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格已经跌至 长流程成本附近，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，近期国内 出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需转向宽松，短期 在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行，观望或者短线交易为主。(数 据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿石盘面震荡运行。钢厂出口生产持续和中美再度谈判对矿价 有所支持。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 728 元/湿吨（-5）。普氏 62%指数 95.65 美元/吨（-0.70），月均 95.91 美元/吨。PBF 基差 68 元/吨（- 2）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,830.6 万吨，环+101.5。45 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - defensive wait - and - see; Treasury bonds - short - term optimistic, currently in a volatile state [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary wait - and - see; Iron ore - temporary wait - and - see; Coking coal and coke - volatile operation [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - cautious trading within a range; Aluminum - light - position short - selling recommended; Nickel - wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies; Tin - weakly volatile; Gold - trading within a range; Silver - trading within a range [1][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - weakly volatile; Soda ash - short - selling strategy for the 01 contract; Caustic soda - weakly volatile; Styrene - weakly volatile; Rubber - weakly volatile; Urea - weakly volatile; Methanol - weakly volatile; Polyolefins - wide - range volatility [1][20][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - volatile rebound; Apples - volatile operation; PTA - range - bound volatility [1][33][34] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short - selling on rallies; Eggs - short - selling on rallies; Corn - operating within the range of [2300, 2360]; Soybean meal - short - term operation within the range of [2900, 3000], long - term buying on dips; Oils - short - selling on rallies [1][35][40] Core Views - Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as international politics, trade policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Most varieties are in a volatile state, and investors need to pay attention to various factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly. For example, the impact of US economic data and tariff policies on the financial and commodity markets, and the influence of supply - demand relationships on the prices of various commodities [5][21][36] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index**: Due to factors such as weak US economic data, geopolitical issues, and tariff disturbances, the index is expected to continue its structural market of volatility and sector rotation before the trading volume effectively increases [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently in a low - volatility environment, driven by news. The pattern of trading based on NCDs may continue. It is recommended that allocation portfolios buy on dips, while trading portfolios have limited short - term operation space [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Although the price rebounded on Wednesday due to the increase in coking coal prices, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [7] - **Iron Ore**: The disk is volatile and strong. The supply and demand fundamentals have little impact, and it is mainly affected by macro news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the disk is expected to be volatile [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is affected by factors such as safety inspections and weak demand, and the price may be weakly volatile. The coke market has not resolved its supply - demand contradictions, and the price still has downward pressure [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - level disturbances are weakening, but the mine - end disturbances continue. The supply shortage pressure is difficult to change, and the consumption is relatively stable. The price is expected to be volatile before the holiday [11] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is currently loose, but the impact of mine - end disturbances will gradually appear. The demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [13] - **Nickel**: The cost is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply is excessive. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and interval trading is recommended [15][16] - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap is improving, but it is affected by US tariff policies. The price is expected to be volatile, and interval trading is recommended [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, inflation data, and central bank policies, the prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and cautious interval trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is under pressure, the demand is insufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is relatively sufficient in the medium term, and the demand increment is limited. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as alumina production and maintenance [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as crude oil prices and pure benzene imports [24][25] - **Rubber**: The demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is high, the demand is limited, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and fertilizer demand [28][29] - **Methanol**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and methanol - to - olefins start - up rates [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be widely volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as new capacity investment and downstream demand [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. A short - selling strategy for the 01 contract is recommended [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is expected to drive the price to rebound [33] - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be volatile [33] - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to be range - bound [34] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [35][36] - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [37][38] - **Corn**: The short - term price has support, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is tightening, but the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to buy on dips within the range [39][40] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be range - bound. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors. It is recommended to operate within the range in the short term and buy on dips after mid - June [40][41] - **Oils**: Different oil varieties have different supply - demand situations. The short - term prices are expected to be range - bound, and interval trading is recommended. The strategy of expanding the spread of some varieties is temporarily suspended [41][46]

长江期货PTA月报 终端订单不佳，聚酯或将转弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-6-5 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 01 走势回顾：宏观影响，低位反弹 02 供应方面：减产降负，供需转好 03 需求方面：聚酯尚可，终端承压 04 逻辑与展望：终端不佳，供需转弱 目录 05 01 走势回顾：宏观影响，低位反弹 01 行情回顾-5月PTA先跌后反弹 n 5月PTA期货主力合约期价先反弹后震荡，主要受国外宏观与成本端原油涨跌影响。月初，中美日内 瓦谈判传来利好，90天关税暂缓极大的提振过国内大宗商品情绪，4月跌幅最深的聚酯系开始反弹， PTA跟涨；而后，供应方面PX-PTA装置了轮番检修，PXN与PTA加工费开始恢复，而现货基差也达 到年内高点；中旬，由于聚酯原料PTA价格持续走高，下游聚酯企业加工利润下滑，少部分品种开始 亏损，对高价原料接受度不高 ...