Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The stock index is expected to fluctuate, and the overall market may continue a structural trend of index fluctuations and rotation of thematic sectors before the trading volume effectively expands. The bond market has limited intraday trading space, and the yield changes are mainly caused by market sentiment and micro - trading behaviors. The key to boosting domestic prices lies in expanding effective demand. Fiscal policy will increase efforts and improve efficiency, focusing on the issuance of government bonds and optimizing the allocation of fiscal funds [9][11][21]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures Strategy Recommendations Stock Index Strategy - Strategy Outlook: The stock index is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Core View: Tariff policy implementation is facing obstacles, and the US economic data and Fed's interest - rate cut plans are uncertain. In addition, geopolitical factors also affect the market. Before the trading volume effectively expands, the structural market of index fluctuations and thematic sector rotation is likely to continue [9]. - Technical Analysis: The KDJ indicator shows that the market index may fluctuate weakly [9]. Treasury Bond Strategy - Strategy Outlook: It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [11]. - Core View: The bond market has almost completed one - step pricing, with limited intraday trading space. The yield changes are mainly due to market sentiment and micro - trading behaviors [11]. - Technical Analysis: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract may fluctuate weakly [11]. Key Data Tracking PMI - In May, the manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.5%. The improvement in supply and demand is the main driving force, but it may be a short - term pulse. Enterprises are worried about long - term oversupply [18]. Inflation - In April, CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year and increased by 0.1% month - on - month; PPI decreased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The impact of tariff shocks on domestic CPI may be limited, and boosting prices depends on expanding effective demand [21]. Profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - From January to April, the year - on - year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size rebounded to 1.4%. In April, the profit increased by 3.0% year - on - year, and the revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year. The improvement in profit is mainly due to the increase in profit margins. The profit growth rate shows a differentiation between upstream and downstream, and the export - related industries have improved [24]. Fiscal - From January to April 2025, national general public budget revenue was 8.1 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%; expenditure was 9.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. Fiscal policy will focus on accelerating the issuance of government bonds and optimizing the allocation of fiscal funds [27]. Industrial Added Value - In April, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the service production index increased by 6.0% year - on - year. The growth rate slowed down compared with March, but the industrial production still shows resilience. The slowdown in the equipment manufacturing industry may be due to the decline in export - related production [30]. Fixed - Asset Investment - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment dropped to 3.6%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 4.0%. The growth rate of infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment all declined to varying degrees. The real estate investment continued to decline, and the new - house sales and real - estate enterprise funds were under pressure [33]. Social Retail Sales - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 5.1%, lower than market expectations. The growth rates of both necessary and optional consumption declined, and there were differences in the growth rates of different retail channels [36]. Social Financing - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock rebounded to 8.7%. Government bonds were the main support for the increase in social financing. Credit decreased seasonally, and the M2 growth rate rebounded [39]. Import and Export - In April, China's exports were 315.69 billion US dollars, imports were 219.51 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 96.18 billion US dollars. The export performance exceeded market expectations, mainly supported by re - export trade. The export growth rates of different trade methods and product categories showed different trends [42]. US Non - farm Payrolls - In April 2025, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, with a seasonally adjusted unemployment rate of 4.2%. The long - term and short - term unemployment problems showed signs of intensification, and the labor market was gradually cooling down [45]. US CPI - In April, the US CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The inflation pressure on core commodities and services was controllable [48]. Weekly Focus - Key economic indicators and events to be concerned about from June 3rd to June 6th include China's May Caixin Manufacturing PMI, US May ISM Non - manufacturing Index, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate, and US May non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate [50].

关税扰动持续，基本面支撑仍存 6月铜月报 2025-6-3 【产业服务总部 | 有色产业中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 01 行情回顾 02 宏观因素分析 03 基本面分析 05 后市展望 目 录 04 技术面分析 02 宏观因素分析 01 行情回顾 01 沪铜行情回顾 5月铜价区间震荡。运行区间7.7万元-7.9万元。特朗普关税政策持续影响市场，中美、英美就关税达成一致协议减弱关税负面影响，美国与欧盟等国贸 易谈判仍过程阻滞。美国通胀升温预期仍存，就业整体稳健。基本面偏强，矿端仍较为紧缺，铜精矿现货粗炼费持续负值且扩大，Kakula因震动而停产，同 时铜下游需求端仍有支撑，中美经贸会谈达成带来抢出口需求，低库存仍支撑铜价。 资料来源：同花顺ifind、长江期货有色产业服务中心 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 沪铜主力日K线 美国 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with limited upside potential for price rebounds. In the short term, the M2509 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of [2900, 3000], while in the medium to long term, the price is expected to strengthen. Enterprises can take corresponding trading strategies based on price trends [3][6]. - The vegetable oil market is under pressure from the expectation of improved supply, with futures prices oscillating weakly. In the short term, the overall trend is expected to be volatile, while in the medium to long term, the market may shift from a volatile phase to a weakly oscillating one, and there is a possibility of a price rebound in the third quarter [3][90]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal 1.1 Market Review - As of May 30, the spot price in East China was 2,830 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan/ton from the previous month. The M2509 contract closed at 2,968 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton from the previous month. The basis was 09 - 150 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan/ton from the previous month. After the May Day holiday, the increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in oil mill operating rates led to a decline in the spot price of soybean meal, while the futures price was relatively strong, showing a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA May report lowered the ending stocks of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season by 295 million bushels, providing strong support for the price. However, favorable weather in the US soybean - growing regions and smooth sowing have limited the upside potential. Brazilian soybean production has increased, with prices running weakly but supported by high demand and planting costs. In China, the arrival of soybeans from May to July will increase, leading to a loose supply - demand situation. In the long term, Sino - US trade frictions may increase import costs and reduce supply, and the domestic soybean inventory will start to decline after September [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. Considering the high cost - effectiveness of soybean meal and the advantage of the pig - grain price ratio, the demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1,030 cents/bushel, and the cost of new Brazilian soybeans is 915 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of domestic soybean meal from May to July is 2,850 yuan/ton, and from August to September it is 2,970 yuan/ton. The overall import crushing profit is between 0 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton, at a high level in the same period of history [6]. 1.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, the M2509 contract is expected to run strongly within the range of [2900, 3000]. Enterprises can conduct basis point pricing on dips and sell on rallies. In the medium to long term, it is advisable to build long positions at the lower end of the range [6]. 2. Vegetable Oil 2.1 Market Review - As of May 30, the main contract of palm oil (09) decreased by 88 yuan/ton to 8,060 yuan/ton, the main contract of soybean oil (09) decreased by 194 yuan/ton to 7,638 yuan/ton, and the main contract of rapeseed oil (09) increased by 51 yuan/ton to 9,348 yuan/ton. The spot prices of corresponding oils also showed different degrees of change [90][92]. 2.2 Palm Oil - In May, the export data of Malaysian palm oil improved in the second half of the month, while the production growth rate continued to slow down. It is expected that the inventory in Malaysia will increase to 2 million tons in May, with a slower accumulation rate compared to April. In Indonesia, the inventory continued to decline in March. In China, the arrival of palm oil from May to June is expected to exceed 200,000 tons each month, and the inventory is expected to recover in the future [90]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - In May, the US biodiesel policy had a significant impact on the market. The current fundamentals of US soybeans are mixed. In China, the arrival of soybeans from May to July is expected to average about 10 million tons per month, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and started to rise, with a strong expectation of further inventory accumulation [90]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing and export in the 24/25 season remains strong, and the old - crop inventory continues to decline. The new - crop sowing in Canada is in the later stage, with no obvious weather - related risks for now. In China, the inventory of rapeseed oil is at a historically high level, but the purchase of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease significantly after June, and the inventory may start to decline in the third quarter [90]. 2.5 Market Outlook and Strategy - In the short term, the main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil (09) are expected to oscillate within the ranges of 7,500 - 8,000, 7,800 - 8,200, and 9,200 - 9,500 respectively. In terms of arbitrage, the strategy of widening the spreads of soybean - palm oil, rapeseed - palm oil, and rapeseed - soybean oil (09) contracts can be monitored in the long term [90].

6月氯碱： 偏弱震荡 关注宏观和库存 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 2025-06-03 目 录 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 02 烧碱：强现实弱预期 盘面偏弱震荡 03 PVC：弱预期低估值 盘面偏弱震荡 01 氯碱走势回顾：5月碱强氯弱 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱现货偏强运行 资料来源：IFIND，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，公开资料整理，长江期货 01 走势回顾：5月烧碱期货近强远弱 p 5月烧碱主力09合约先涨后跌，月度下跌0.93%收2456元/吨。近月06合约持续维持强势，月度上涨13.84%收2714元/吨。 p 现货维持强势，近月06合约上涨，09合约受终点供需预期偏弱走势弱势，6-9 月差走强，呈现强现实弱预期的分化格局。 p 5月上游一定检修，出口存有一定支撑，液碱库存处于下降态势。魏桥 液碱送货量持续处于低位，原料库存持续走低，但其新线投产对烧碱 需求有增量。5月中上旬氧化铝价格大幅上涨、利润修复，氧化铝复产 预期增强推动烧碱偏强。5月底氧化铝转跌，复产预期转弱。 p 魏桥连续6次上调32 ...

长江期货棉花月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-06-03 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 反弹结束，震荡回落 01 走势回顾：5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 02 供应端分析：新季全球供应仍显宽松 03 需求端分析：下游需求总体尚稳 04 逻辑与展望：震荡回落 目 录 05 02 01 走势回顾：5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 01 5月郑棉反弹后震荡运行 数据来源：博易大师、中国棉花信息网、TTEB、IFIND、长江期货 Ø 5月郑棉大幅反弹后震荡运行，宏观层面，月初中美开始接触直至联合声明发布，中美关税战趋向缓和，市场 情绪有所缓解，期价从低位一路上行，达到月内最大涨幅，5 月 28 日，美国联邦贸易法院裁决阻止了特朗普 对等关税，后续对等关税发展如何需暂时观望，不确定性较大。基本面来看，市场前期部分积压订单逐步发运， 有少量订单回流，但棉类产业链传导不明 ...

玻璃六月报 淡季供增需减 盘面依旧看弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/6/3 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 投资策略：反弹做空 主要逻辑 行情回顾：五月玻璃盘面继续保持流畅的下跌趋势。五月末盘面小幅反弹，一方面是因为纯碱供应过剩，碱玻价差合适， 主流资金进行多玻璃空纯碱的套利操作。另一方面则是受到湖北产线冷修传言的影响，这两方面给予了玻璃做空的空间。后续 大线点火复产和淡季库存回升，导致主力合约跌破1000。供给方面，五月份冷修2条，点火复产3条，日熔量底部抬升。全国 库存维持高位运行，华北华中以价换量效果一般，月末沙河湖北厂库环比增加，厂家库压力较大。主销区受外围降价和天气影 响，市场观望情绪增加，中下游提货速度放缓。煤炭价格持续走弱，华北煤制气工艺利润维持。需求方面，中下游按需采购， 现货降价比较下对原片采购趋谨慎。纯碱方面，前期检修装置复产，供应回升至高位，结合下半年投产计划，市场对远期悲观 预期较浓，同样弱势看待。 后市展望：六月 ...

长江期货研究咨询部 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 赵丹琪：| Z0014940 电话：027-65777110 邮箱：zhaodq1@cjsc.com.cn 期货市场交易指引 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 暂时观望 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果 ...

尿素2025年6月报： 回归供需季节性 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心 张英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-06-03 目 录 01 尿素行情回顾 05 复合肥及工业需求分析 02 尿素产能产量分析 06 尿素及肥料出口分析 03 尿素成本利润分析 07 尿素库存水平分析 04 尿素农业需求分析 08 尿素后市展望 01 尿素5月行情回顾 受出口信息持续影响，5月上旬尿素价格高位震荡，下旬回归实际供需矛盾，尿素产销转弱，价格高位回落，接近出口 调整前运行区间。5月30日尿素09合约收盘于1773元/吨，较上月底下调84元/吨，尿素河南市场价格1880元/吨，较 上月底下调26元/吨。 尿素09合约期货价格（元/吨） 1050 1550 2050 2550 3050 3550 中国尿素(小颗粒)日度均价（元/吨） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 资料来源：同花顺，长江期货能化产业服务中心 02 尿素基差与价差 价差：5月尿素9-1价格整体呈现走弱趋势，5月30日9-1价差70元/吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is to maintain a wait - and - see stance [3][70][72] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell, showing an overall volatile trend. The rise was due to the easing of Sino - US trade tensions and the expectation of another round of export rush after tariff cuts, while the decline was caused by the peak of hot metal production at the end of the month and the expected weak demand in the steel off - season. The global iron ore shipment showed a seasonal upward trend, and the mainstream shipments from Australia and Brazil also reached high levels. With the maintenance of the port ore clearance volume, the port iron ore inventory continued to decline. At the end of the month, sporadic blast furnaces in Hebei and Shandong reduced their loads and production, combined with the earlier overhaul of large - scale blast furnaces, leading to an enlarged decline in hot metal production, but steel mills' profitability remained at a medium level. Looking ahead, due to the continuous price concessions of coal at the raw material end, steel mills' production can be maintained, so iron ore performed relatively strongly. The price fluctuated little, with less impact from fundamentals and more from macro - news. The high - volume shipments at the end of the fiscal year of overseas mainstream mines usually take effect in early July, so it is expected that the port inventory will continue to decline. Technically, the long and short forces on the futures market are not obvious. In summary, it is expected that the iron ore futures market will fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see, focusing on the range of 690 - 730 [4][71] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review: Narrow - Range Fluctuation and Strengthening Basis - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Last Friday, the converted futures prices of various grades of iron ore at Qingdao Port were as follows: Super Special Fine was 821 yuan/ton (-11), PB Fine was 776 yuan/ton (-20), Newman Fine was 768 yuan/ton (-16), and Carajas Fine was 766 yuan/ton (-18). The domestic Tangshan 66% iron concentrate dry - based tax - included price was 925 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10. The Platts 62% price index was 96.8 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.75 and a monthly average of 99.12 US dollars/ton. The iron ore 09 contract closed at 702.0 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 16 [8] - **Basis and Spread**: On May 30, the futures main - contract steel - to - iron ore ratio was 4.22, with a decrease of 0.02. The spreads between different grades of iron ore showed that the medium - and high - grade ores had relatively large declines. The basis of the PB Fine 09 contract was 74 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 4. The 09 - 01 spread was 35.5 yuan/ton last Friday, with no weekly change [21] - **Scrap Steel**: As of May 30, the market price of scrap steel in Jiangyin was 2,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 10. The iron - to - scrap steel price difference in East China was 76 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 74 [23][24] 3.2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Domestic Resumption of Production and Peak of Hot Metal - **Imports**: In April, China's total imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 10,313.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 131.93, and the cumulative imports were 38,847.27 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7%. Specifically, sintering ore powder imports were 6,688.78 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 315.11; lump ore imports were 1,899.30 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 77.02; pellet imports were 281.73 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 81.34; and iron concentrate imports were 1,443.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 288.67 [31][37] - **Domestic Supply**: On May 30, the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mining enterprises (363 mines) was 61.01%, a decrease of 4.14% from the previous period. As of May 30, the daily average output of iron concentrate was 46.86 million tons, a decrease of 3.23 from the previous period, and the iron concentrate inventory of mining enterprises was 105.92 million tons, an increase of 5.37 from the previous period [43] - **Foreign Supply**: As of May 23, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,729.10 million tons, an increase of 23 from the previous period. Australia's shipments were 1,970.8 million tons, an increase of 143, and Brazil's shipments were 758.3 million tons, a decrease of 120. As of May 30, the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 8.56 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 0.27, and the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao was 19.86 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.12 [51] - **Port Supply**: On May 23, the arrivals at 45 major domestic ports were 2,151.3 million tons, a decrease of 120 from the previous period. Last week, the number of ships at berth in 47 ports was 80, a decrease of 9 from the previous period. The daily average ore clearance volume at 45 major domestic ports last week was 326.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.41 from the previous period [56] - **Inventory**: Last week, the iron ore inventory at 45 major domestic ports was 13,866.58 million tons, a weekly decrease of 121.25. The inventory of 247 domestic steel mills' imported iron ore was 8,754.33 million tons last Friday, a weekly decrease of 171.15, and the corresponding daily average iron ore consumption last week was 299.68 million tons/day, a decrease of 2.19. The total inventory of the two was 22,620.91 million tons, a decrease of 292.4 from the previous period [57] - **Steel Mills' Demand**: Last week, the profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 58.87%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous period. The daily average hot metal output of 247 domestic steel enterprises last week was 241.91 million tons, a decrease of 1.69 from the previous period. As of May 30, the furnace - charge ratio of steel mills was 73.19% for sintering ore, 14.63% for pellet ore, and 12.19% for lump ore [66] 3.3. Investment Strategy: Unclear Direction, Wait and See - **Investment Strategy**: It is advisable to wait and see. The iron ore futures market is expected to fluctuate, and investors should focus on the range of 690 - 730 [70][71]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain stable with an increase in imports, while the demand growth rate is slower than supply. The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure and is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy when the price rebounds to a high level and to keep an eye on upstream enterprise production cuts and cathode material production schedules [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - side - **Production**: In May, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 1.9% month - on - month to 73020 tons. This week, the output increased by 350 tons to 15398 tons. The production of lithium salt plants has been stable, and some overseas mines have adjusted their production plans. For example, Pilbara Minerals lowered its lithium concentrate production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year to 700,000 - 740,000 tons, and the Bald Hill concentrator planned to stop operating in early December 2024 [4]. - **Import**: In April 2025, China's lithium ore import volume was 623,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.5%. The lithium carbonate import volume was 28,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 56%. It is expected that the import volume of South American lithium salt will remain high [4]. - **Cost**: The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore to produce lithium carbonate faced cost inversion. Self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises had some profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers faced greater cost pressure [4]. 3.2 Demand - side - **Production and Sales of Batteries**: In April, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 118.2GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03% and a year - on - year increase of 49.0%. The total export was 22.3GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 64.2%. The sales volume was 118.1GWh, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 73.5%. The overall production in June is expected to be flat month - on - month [5]. - **New Energy Vehicle Market**: The introduction of the trade - in policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the Chinese new energy vehicle market [5]. 3.3 Inventory This week, the lithium carbonate inventory showed a build - up. The factory inventory decreased by 1142 tons to 33401 tons, the market inventory increased by 3409 tons, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 427 tons [5]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion Given the situation of strong supply and weak demand that has not improved, it is recommended to short - sell when the price of lithium carbonate rebounds to a high level. It is also necessary to continuously monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedules of cathode materials [5]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - **Lithium Carbonate Production and Inventory**: There are data on monthly and weekly production, as well as weekly inventory changes over multiple years [7][8][9][10][11]. - **Lithium Concentrate Price**: The average price of imported lithium concentrate (Li2O: 6% - 6.5%) is presented over a long - term time series [14][15]. - **Battery Production and Related Data**: Data on the production, export, and sales of power and other batteries, as well as the production and sales differences of domestic power batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries are provided [5][20][23]. - **Production of Lithium Carbonate from Different Raw Materials**: In April 2024, the production of lithium carbonate from lithium salt lakes accounted for 20.06%, from lithium mica 23.35%, and from lithium spodumene 44.61% [21][22]. - **Production of Cathode Materials**: There are data on the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials over multiple years [26][27][31]. - **Prices of Related Products**: The average prices of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial grade), lithium iron phosphate (power - type), and ternary materials (8 - series NCA type) are presented over different time periods [18][35][39]. - **Import Volume**: Data on the import volume of lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene over multiple years are provided [37][41].