长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-04-07 01 尿素：去库虽延续 价格短期或回调 02 甲醇：关注宏观政策影响 目 录 尿素：去库虽延续 价格短期或回调 01 4 重点关注：尿素装置减产检修情况、仓单情况、复合肥开工情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：尿素盘面价格先强后弱，4月3日尿素2505合约收盘价1894元/吨，较上周基本持平，期间最高涨至 1931元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1950元/吨，较上周下调12元/吨，山东市场日均价1952元/吨，较上周下调 11元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端尿素开工负荷率84.84%，较上周基本持平，其中气头企业开工负荷率65.38%，较上周下调 0.73个百分点，尿素日均产量小幅回落至19.32万吨。成本端无烟煤市场下游消耗刚需有支撑，价格仍持稳运行山 西晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小块含税价900-950 ...

2025-04-07 产业服务总部 关税风波对黑色商品的影响 2025 年 4 月 2 日，特朗普公布全面关税方案：拟从 4 月 5 日 开始，对所有国家征收 10%的"基准关税"。此外，还将从 4 月 9 日开始，对包括中国在内的数十个其他国家和地区在 10%基础上加 征更高关税。 据特朗普公布新政策，中国的"对等关税"税率将达 34%，越 南的关税将高达 46%，泰国关税为 36%，印度尼西亚关税为 32%， 印度关税为 26%，日本关税为 24%，韩国关税为 25%，欧盟国家 关税将升至 20%。依据美国国际贸易委员会数据，2024 年美国对 华贸易加权平均税率为 10.9%。美国已经分别于 2 月 4 日和 3 月 4 日落地对华加征 10%关税，若此次宣布的 34%税率落地，则美国对 华进口关税税率将达到 64.9%。另一方面，特朗普发表"解放日" 讲话后，签署了一项行政令，将关闭从中国免税运送低价包裹入美 的贸易"漏洞"渠道。白宫方面表示，自 5 月 2 日开始，终止对从 中国内地和中国香港进口的小额包裹（价值 800 美元或以下）的免 税待遇，即低值免税门槛。 一些商品将不受"对等关税"的约束， ...

长江期货贵金属周报 衰退预期升温，价格承压回调 2025/4/7 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 2023/07/03 2023/08/03 2023/09/03 2023/10/03 2023/11/03 2023/12/03 2024/01/03 2024/02/03 2024/03/03 2024/04/03 2024/05/03 2024/06/03 2024/07/03 2024/08/03 2024/09/03 2024/10/03 2024/11/03 2024/12/03 2025/01/03 2025/02/03 2025/03/03 2025/04/03 美国推出对等关 ...

氯碱周报： 偏弱震荡 关注出口和宏观 2025-04-07 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 交易咨询号：Z0015756 目 录 01 烧碱：偏弱震荡 关注出口 02 PVC：偏弱震荡 关注宏观 01 核心观点总结 资料来源：IFIND，博易云，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，长江期货 烧碱：偏弱震荡 关注出口 01 p 本周回顾：截止周五，主力SH2505跌3.66%收于2501，山东32%液碱855（-15）元/吨，折百2672（-47）元/吨。 p 基本面情况： 资料来源：IFIND，博易云，卓创资讯，隆众资讯，长江期货 1. 上游：利润尚可，关注液氯。截至4月3日，山东原盐保持260（0）元/吨，山东液氯价格+1（-49）元/吨。山东氯碱企业周平均毛利在603 元/吨，较上周 环比-24.25%。周内山东液碱价格基本下行，液氯价格下行，周内整体氯碱利润下行。 2. 供应：供应维持高位，关注检修情况。截至4月3日，中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业周度产能利用率82.9%（-0.4%），周损失量16.45万吨（-1.02%）， 周产量79.48万吨 ...

长江期货白糖周报 关税加征扰动市场，糖价高位震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-7 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 白糖周度观点 1 整体观点：国际糖市，国际糖市，ICE期价涨跌互现，目前北半球主产区产量已成定局，受巴西库 存偏低，3月底印度2024/25榨季累计产糖同比减少影响，叠加巴西中南部新榨季生产或推迟，短 期贸易流偏紧，对国际糖价的支撑仍存，后市市场关注重心逐渐转向南半球，巴西主产区降雨缓 解了部分市场供给担忧，后期重点关注巴西天气状况及开榨进度情况。近期美国关税加征引发的 担忧影响，市场波动加剧，情绪较为谨慎。国内方面，国内食糖和糖浆、白砂糖预混粉进口同比 回落数据影响，对糖价形成一定支撑，叠加国产糖即将进入纯销期，产区3月产销数据陆续公布， 销糖进度或同比加快，工业库存同比有所下降，产区现货报价相对坚挺，预计短期国内糖价将 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 清明期间，受关税风波影响，外盘大跌，铁矿掉期跌幅近 4%，周一钢价 大概率跳空低开。就钢材而言，关税对直接出口影响不大，2024 年中国 对美钢材出口量 89 万吨，仅占出口总量的 0.8%，不过间接影响相对较 大，根据 Mysteel 测算，去年我国钢铁间接出口量达到 1.4 亿吨，其中 对美国出口达到 1000 多万吨，叠加部分转出口也受到影响，因此后期 钢材直接与间接出口均会受到一定冲击。近日全美爆发大规模反特朗普 示威，美国对等关税政策是否会按期落地仍需观察，另外国内除了关税 反击以外，是否会出台财政与货币政策也需要进一步观察。短期来看， 一方面市场情绪受到冲击，另一方面钢材实际需求承压，预计节后钢价 偏弱运行，需要警惕大幅下跌风险。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 上周连铁宽幅震荡，美国对全球加征关税，全球贸易摩擦加剧。供给方 面，澳洲巴西发运持续回升。由于前期强势发运，近日国内铁矿到港量 有明显上升，随着疏港下降，本周铁矿港口库存略有上升，累库预期提 升。国产矿方面，开工率回升，铁精粉产量小幅增长，矿企库存有所增 加。需求方面，钢厂复 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short - term, the pig price will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price has a high risk of decline due to strong supply and weak demand. For eggs, the short - term supply - demand pattern has improved marginally, but the medium - to - long - term supply pressure is increasing. For oils, the domestic oils are expected to be weakly volatile after the holiday, with a possible overall downward trend in the second quarter and a rebound in the third quarter. For soybean meal, the price before July is less directly affected, but the price is expected to be strong after September. For corn, the short - term price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and the medium - to - long - term price has upward momentum but limited upside space [1][2][8][10]. Summary by Categories Pig - **Price**: During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the national pig price fluctuated narrowly. On April 7, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg, 14.3 - 14.9 yuan/kg, 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, and 15 - 15.6 yuan/kg respectively [1]. - **Influence of Tariffs**: China's 34% counter - tariff on all US imports since April 10, 2025, has limited direct impact on the domestic pig market as the domestic pork import accounts for only about 5% and the US share is less than 1% [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Currently, the industry still has breeding profits. In the short - term, large - scale farms control the weight of pigs for slaughter. The low - price entry enthusiasm of secondary fattening is good, and the low slaughter inventory also supports the price. However, the price is under pressure above. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply from April to September is increasing, and the supply pressure in the second quarter is large. The supply pressure in the long - term is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures are at a discount, and the short - term supply pressure is postponed. The general direction is to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the pressure levels of different contracts and sell out - of - the - money call options on 07 and 09 contracts [1]. Eggs - **Price**: On April 7, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.95 yuan/jin, and in Beijing was 3.16 yuan/jin, both stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the supply pressure is large, but the increase in old - hen culling and festival - driven consumption have improved the supply - demand pattern. In the long - term, the supply will continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the impact of old - hen culling or molting on the phased supply [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 05 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. For the 08 and 09 contracts, they should be treated as bearish in general, and pay attention to the impact of feed and culling [2]. Oils - **Price Changes**: On April 4, the US soybean oil main 5 - month contract fell 2.85% to 45.72 cents/lb, and the Malaysian palm oil main 6 - month contract fell 3.59% to 4329 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price fell 100 - 120 yuan/ton, the soybean oil price fell 110 - 160 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil price rose 60 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact. The Malaysian palm oil production increase in March is greater than the export increase, and the inventory is expected to rise. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory is decreasing. In the medium - to - long - term, the price is likely to decline [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Although the US may increase the biodiesel blending volume, the overall fundamentals are bearish. The domestic soybean and soybean oil inventories are decreasing, but the supply pressure in the second quarter is large. The price may first fall and then rise in the medium - to - long - term [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The Sino - Canadian and US - Canadian relations affect the Canadian rapeseed export. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the supply pressure will decrease after May. The price is expected to rebound in the medium - to - long - term [7]. - **Strategy**: For the 05 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, be cautious about chasing up. For the spread of 09 rapeseed - soybean oil, stop profit and exit [8]. Soybean Meal - **Price Changes**: On April 4, the US soybean 05 contract fell 34.75 cents/bu to 977.25 cents/bu. The spot price rose due to tariff sentiment [8]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: In the short - term, the impact on soybean meal before July is limited, but the price bottom will rise. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price is expected to be strong after September [8]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing long on the 05 and 07 contracts on Monday. Hold the long positions on the 09 contract and go long on dips if not held. Do reverse spreads on the 7 - 9 spread and positive spreads on the 9 - 1 spread [8]. Corn - **Price**: On April 3, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2170 yuan/ton, and the平仓 price was 2220 yuan/ton. The price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2324 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: In the short - term, the spot price has some pressure, but there is also support. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Treat the general direction as moderately strong. Look for opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract and pay attention to the 2250 support level [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, CBOT corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [11].

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-04-07 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝周报 01 周度观点 整体矿端供应逐步好转、价格逐步下行。氧化铝运行产能周度环比下降25万吨至9105万吨，氧化铝库存周度环比增加2万吨至339 万吨。氧化铝厂检修减产继续增加，当前减产产能已达200万吨，预计4月中旬减产规模可能达到500万吨左右。山东某150万吨氢 氧化铝项目逐步贡献氧化铝产量；广西地区某氧化铝厂二期第一条100万吨产线逐步贡献氧化铝产量，第二条100万吨产线近期或 将陆续产出成品；北方某大型氧化铝二期第一条160万吨产线近期已陆续有投料进展。电解铝运行产能4404.4万吨，周度环比持平。 中铝青海产能扩建升级项目逐步启槽，贡献产能净增量10万吨，贵州安顺仍在复产。去年底因成本或检修原因减产的四川铝企积极 复产中，广元弘昌晟预计4-5月满产。需求方面，国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率周度环比下降0.85%至62.58%。库存方面，周内 铝锭、铝棒社库去化。美 ...

加菜系产品进口困难后可能的 替代来源分析 核心观点 线路二：加菜籽经由欧盟/阿联酋压榨后以菜系产品输入中国：2024 年 中国进口了 50 万吨阿联酋菜油、32 万吨阿联酋菜粕和 2 万吨欧菜油，理论 上存在增大从两国进口菜系产品的可能。不过这两国都面临各自的问题：阿 联酋菜籽进口量已经接近其 110 万吨的压榨产能上限，新建压榨厂又要时 间，所以其承接加菜籽的能力短期无法大幅增长。欧盟虽然菜籽产量和压榨 量极大，但需要首先满足本国需求后的剩余部分才能出口中国。 线路三：加大对俄罗斯菜系产品的进口：俄罗斯菜籽产量在近五年中快 速拉升至 500 万吨，2024/25 年度共出口 135 万吨菜油和 80 万吨菜粕。 2024 年中国共进口 109 万吨俄菜油，已成为国内菜油最大进口源。由于中 俄关系密切以及俄罗斯菜籽继续扩种，预计未来俄菜油依然会大量进入中 国。不过当前对中国出口需求已经占了俄罗斯菜油的绝大部分，而菜籽扩种 需要时间，所以短期继续增大出口的空间有限。 综上所述，在当前国内对加菜油/菜粕加征关税，对加菜籽反倾销调查也 在进行中的情况下，2025 年对加拿大菜系产品的进口预计将明显减少。而 以上替代 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: Trump's announcement of national emergency, full - scale tariff collection, and setting a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" with higher tariffs on countries with large trade deficits against the US. Tariff disturbances and the earnings season may lead the market to focus more on fundamental realities, causing the stock index to face downward pressure [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market strengthened on Wednesday due to improved liquidity and increased post - quarter - end allocation demand. Falling funding rates drove up short - and medium - term bonds, and signs of increased fund subscriptions and narrowing spreads of less - active bonds indicated the entry of allocation buyers. On Thursday, attention should be paid to the impact of US reciprocal tariffs. If the impact is more than expected, combined with banks' allocation demand, the market may accelerate; if the impact is mild, yields may decline in the short term, but the bond market environment remains favorable in the first half of April [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.07%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index fell 0.17%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index rose 0.24%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index rose 0.49% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a weakening trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The stock index may be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.26%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.15%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.86%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a strengthening trend [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Take profits in a timely manner [4]. 4. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3857.60 | - 0.07 | 37515 | 151868 | | 2025/03/10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2656.20 | - 0.17 | 20568 | 51807 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5868.60 | 0.24 | 35926 | 68392 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6100.00 | 0.49 | 106534 | 161702 | | 2025/03/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.05 | 0.26 | 62618 | 181072 | | 2025/03/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.75 | 0.15 | 44032 | 158987 | | 2025/03/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 117.18 | 0.86 | 103374 | 107670 | | 2025/03/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.39 | 0.04 | 33901 | 98280 | [12]