Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: Trump's announcement of national emergency, full - scale tariff collection, and setting a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" with higher tariffs on countries with large trade deficits against the US. Tariff disturbances and the earnings season may lead the market to focus more on fundamental realities, causing the stock index to face downward pressure [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market strengthened on Wednesday due to improved liquidity and increased post - quarter - end allocation demand. Falling funding rates drove up short - and medium - term bonds, and signs of increased fund subscriptions and narrowing spreads of less - active bonds indicated the entry of allocation buyers. On Thursday, attention should be paid to the impact of US reciprocal tariffs. If the impact is more than expected, combined with banks' allocation demand, the market may accelerate; if the impact is mild, yields may decline in the short term, but the bond market environment remains favorable in the first half of April [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 index fell 0.07%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 index fell 0.17%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 index rose 0.24%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 index rose 0.49% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a weakening trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The stock index may be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.26%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.15%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.86%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.04% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows a strengthening trend [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Take profits in a timely manner [4]. 4. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 300 Continuous | 3857.60 | - 0.07 | 37515 | 151868 | | 2025/03/10 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2656.20 | - 0.17 | 20568 | 51807 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 500 Continuous | 5868.60 | 0.24 | 35926 | 68392 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6100.00 | 0.49 | 106534 | 161702 | | 2025/03/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.05 | 0.26 | 62618 | 181072 | | 2025/03/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.75 | 0.15 | 44032 | 158987 | | 2025/03/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 117.18 | 0.86 | 103374 | 107670 | | 2025/03/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.39 | 0.04 | 33901 | 98280 | [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to fluctuate weakly, and treasury bonds are recommended to take profits and wait and see [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar and coking coal are expected to fluctuate, while iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high prices and replenish long positions after a callback; aluminum is expected to fluctuate within the range of 20300 - 21000; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices; tin is expected to be strong; gold and silver are recommended to build positions at low prices and be cautious about chasing high prices [1][11] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; urea is recommended for range - bound operations; soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][21] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate weakly, apples are expected to strengthen, and PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][27] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; eggs are strongly supported in the near - term and recommended to be shorted at high prices in the far - term; corn is recommended to go long at low prices; soybean meal is recommended to be cautious about going long in the short - term and go long lightly in the far - term; oils are expected to fluctuate within a range [1][32] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex, with factors such as Trump's tariff policy, overseas shocks, and domestic policies affecting the markets of various industries [5][7][11] - Different industries have different supply - demand relationships and cost - profit situations, which lead to different investment strategies [7][11][21] - The markets of various industries are affected by both macro - factors and industry - specific factors, and investors need to pay attention to multiple factors [5][7][11] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to tariff disturbances and the market's focus on fundamentals during the earnings season, index futures may be under pressure [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market improved on Wednesday due to factors such as reduced issuance pressure, improved liquidity, and institutional behavior. The market may accelerate if there are significant overseas shocks, or the yield may correct in the short - term if the overseas impact is lower than expected [5][6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price was narrowly fluctuating on Wednesday. Affected by the US tariff increase, it is expected to be under pressure. In the short - term, iron ore production may increase, and the demand peak in the first half of the year is still to be verified, so the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Iron Ore**: The price was narrowly fluctuating on Wednesday. Trump's tariff policy may have a negative impact on iron ore swaps. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The price is expected to fluctuate [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is affected by factors such as supply restrictions in some areas, import changes, and increased demand from steel mills. The coke market has improved supply - demand, but there are concerns about downstream restocking. Both are expected to fluctuate [8][9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the US tariff policy and supply - demand changes, the price has fluctuated. Next week, the price correction may drive downstream restocking, and the price is expected to be in a high - level wide - range fluctuation [11] - **Aluminum**: The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and the production capacity of alumina has decreased. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and the demand is rising. Affected by policies at home and abroad, the price may have a callback space, and it is recommended to go long in steps during the callback [13] - **Nickel**: Affected by macro - factors, nickel ore policies, and supply - demand in different sectors, the price is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [15][16] - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to build positions at low prices [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as the US economic data, tariff policy, and central bank policies, the prices of gold and silver are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to build positions at low prices and be cautious about chasing high prices [19][20] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The long - term demand is affected by the real estate industry, and the supply is under pressure. Currently, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, and attention should be paid to factors such as new production, spring maintenance, and downstream resumption [22] - **Caustic Soda**: The inventory is high, the demand growth is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory reduction and alumina production [24] - **Urea**: The supply has slightly decreased, the demand from compound fertilizer is stable, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the short - term and then adjust upwards. Attention should be paid to factors such as production reduction and compound fertilizer production [25] - **Methanol**: The supply is loose, the downstream demand has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as downstream purchasing sentiment [25] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply and demand are expected to change slightly, and the market consumption is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate [27] - **Apples**: The market in the production area is stable, the inventory is low, and the price is expected to strengthen [28] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil and supply - demand, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4700 - 5000 [29] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short - term, the price is supported by factors such as festival demand, but in the long - term, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices [32][33] - **Eggs**: In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and in the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contract and short at high prices for the far - term contract [34] - **Corn**: In the short - term, the spot price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and in the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [35] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, it is affected by South American harvest and high inventory, and the price is weak; in the long - term, the import cost may increase, and the price has support. It is recommended to be cautious about going long in the short - term and go long lightly in the far - term [36][37] - **Oils**: In the short - term, the prices of the three major oils are expected to be strong, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, the prices may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to spread - trading strategies [40][44][45]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of live pigs will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg, with a high risk of decline in the medium - long term due to strong supply and weak demand. For eggs, the short - term supply - demand pattern has marginally improved, but the supply pressure will increase in the long term. The short - term trend of the three major domestic oils is strong, but the increase is limited, and the price may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The short - term price of soybean meal is weak, while the long - term price has strong support. The short - term price of corn is easy to rise but hard to fall, and the price will rise in the medium - long term with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On April 3, the spot price of live pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 14.9 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan and Guangdong, it remained stable. The short - term price is supported by factors such as cost control by large - scale farms, low - level entry of secondary fattening, and potential increase in demand during holidays. However, the price is under pressure due to cautious secondary fattening after price increases, increased large - pig slaughter, and limited terminal consumption. In the medium - long term, the supply will increase from March to September 2024, and the supply pressure in the second quarter is large. The strategy is to go short on rebounds, and sell out - of - the - money call options for contracts 07 and 09 [1]. Eggs - On April 3, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, and in Beijing was 3.16 yuan/jin, both remaining stable. In April, the supply pressure is large due to the increase in laying hens, but the increase in old - hen culling and festival - driven consumption have improved the supply - demand pattern. In the long term, the supply will continue to increase in the second quarter due to high - profit - driven replenishment from December 2024 to February 2025. The strategy is to wait and see for contract 05, and take a bearish view on contracts 08 and 09 [2]. Oils - On April 2, the US soybean oil main contract rose 5.71% to 47.27 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 2.22% to 4518 ringgit/ton. The prices of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all increased. For palm oil, the export of Malaysian palm oil improved in March, but the production also increased, and the inventory may rise from April. The short - term price of the Malaysian 06 contract will fluctuate between 4200 - 4600. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price may fall from a high level in the medium - long term. For soybean oil, the potential increase in biodiesel blending in the US is positive, but the new tariffs and large - scale Brazilian soybean harvest are negative. The domestic supply pressure will be large in the medium term. For rapeseed oil, the trade interruption between China and Canada will intensify the supply - demand tension in the medium - long term, and the price is expected to rebound after the second quarter. The strategy is to be cautious about chasing up the 05 contracts of the three oils and pay attention to the spread - widening strategy of the rapeseed - soybean 09 contract [4][5][6]. Soybean Meal - On April 2, the US soybean 05 contract fell 4.75 cents to 1029.5 cents/bu, and the soybean meal 05 contract closed at 2820 yuan/ton. The new tariffs imposed by Trump have a negative impact on US soybeans. In the short term, the market is trading around the South American bumper harvest, and the price of US soybeans is weak. Domestically, the de - stocking of soybean meal is not as expected, and the price is weak. In the long term, the import cost will increase, and the price has strong support. The strategy is to be cautious about going long on the 05 and 07 contracts in the short term and to go long on the m2509 contract at low prices [8]. Corn - On April 2, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the short term, the spot price has pressure due to farmers' selling and high port inventory, but it is supported by the bullish sentiment of traders and downstream replenishment demand. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes. The strategy is to take a bullish view, and look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on pullbacks [9]. Futures Market Overview - On April 2, the prices of various futures and spot products showed different trends. For example, the US soybean 05 contract fell, while the prices of some domestic oils and eggs rose. The details of price changes for each variety are shown in the table [11].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View The report analyzes the trends of black - related commodities including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke. It is expected that these commodities will generally show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as US tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - On Wednesday, rebar futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis was 84 (+24). Due to the large - scale US tariff increase, prices are expected to face pressure today [1]. - Last week, rebar production and apparent consumption both slightly increased, and the speed of inventory reduction accelerated slightly. The inventory reduction of five major steel products was smooth, and there is still room for short - term hot metal production to rise [1]. - Domestic Two Sessions policy intensity basically met expectations, but economic data from January to February were still weak, with the real estate market in a continuous decline and infrastructure growth slightly improving [1]. - In terms of valuation, rebar futures prices have fallen near the electric furnace valley electricity cost, and the static valuation is at a moderately low level. In terms of driving factors, the peak demand in the first half of the year is still in the verification period, and the impact of tariffs and domestic countermeasures need further observation. Prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Trump's tariff policy last night exceeded market expectations, and the RMB exchange rate was weak, which is expected to have a greater negative impact on iron ore swaps [1]. - The latest total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,647.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 132.7 million tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,630.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 43.50 million tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 237.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02 million tons [1]. - The factors restricting the shipment of Australia and Brazil have subsided, and port inventories are facing upward pressure. The supply side is relatively strong. The blast furnace restart after the Spring Festival is nearly over, and subsequent production recovery is limited. It is expected that the growth rate of hot metal will slow down [1]. - Affected by the unexpected US tariff policy, there is a macro - level negative impact on ore prices. The market should pay attention to the 800 pressure level on the disk [1]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, some coal mines in the main production areas are restricted in production due to accidents and environmental protection factors. Coupled with the release of downstream replenishment demand, the supply of high - sulfur coal in the region has tightened, the trading atmosphere in the auction market has improved, and the prices of some coal types have shown tentative increases [3]. - In terms of imports, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has decreased month - on - month due to weak demand. Although the supply of Australian long - term resources is stable, the domestic spot price is weak, and the cost - performance advantage is insufficient, so traders are cautious in taking delivery [3]. - In terms of demand, the accelerated restart of steel mills has driven the increase in hot metal production, and the demand for coking enterprises to replenish raw materials has gradually been released, but its sustainability needs to be tracked [3]. - In general, the coking coal market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The core contradiction in the current market lies in the game between high supply and demand sustainability. Attention should be paid to the substantial improvement signal of finished product demand and the change in imported coal cost [3]. Coke - In terms of supply, the production of coking enterprises in the main production areas has remained stable, the previous inventory pressure has gradually eased, some enterprises have accelerated the shipment by improving logistics efficiency, and the factory inventory has continued to decline [4]. - Although the profit level of coking enterprises is limited after the previous price adjustment, the production rhythm has not significantly shrunk under the support of rigid demand [4]. - In terms of demand, with the progress of blast furnace restart, the stable increase in hot metal production has driven the release of rigid demand for coke [4]. - At the cost end, the prices of some coal types have shown tentative increases, and the marginal cost of coke entering the furnace has increased, forming a bottom support for prices. However, under the background of coking - steel game, the lack of sustainability of downstream replenishment is still a concern [4]. - In general, the supply - demand pattern of coke has marginally improved, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the elasticity of hot metal production, the realization of finished product consumption, and the fluctuation rhythm of coking coal cost [4]. Economic News - On April 2, local time, US President Trump announced "reciprocal tariff" measures on trading partners, imposing a 34% reciprocal tariff on China, 20% on the EU, and 24% on Japan [6]. - The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", proposing to accelerate the construction of key - area markets, promote the construction of important commodity spot and futures markets, optimize rules for futures variety listing, trading, and supervision, and develop trading markets for oil, gas, coal, etc. in an orderly manner [6]. - As of April 1, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 57.95%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 59.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [6]. - The Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway started a 30 - day spring maintenance project on April 1 [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the China Trade Remedy Information Network successively announced 37 anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations or rulings initiated by foreign countries against Chinese steel products, including stainless - steel sinks and hot - rolled carbon steel pipes [6].

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 4 月 2 日 PVC 主力 05 合约收盘 5072 元/吨（-27），常州市场价 4900 元 /吨（0），主力基差-172 元/吨（+27），广州市场价 5040 元/吨（-10）， 杭州市场价 4940 元/吨（-10）；兰炭中料 675（0）元/吨，乌海电石 2700 （0）元/吨，乙烯 7100（0）元/吨。长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续 低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比小（12% 左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库 存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏 空配。目前检修不多，4 月中旬开始环比有增多同比偏少，出口以价换 量持稳状态，内需季节性恢复；估值中性，基本面驱动有限，金融属性 强于商品属性，跟随大盘波动，预计 PVC 低位震荡偏弱运行，上方关注 5200 压力。后期关注新增投产进度、春检落地情况、下游复工以及出口 情况等，政策端关注国内货币、财政、能耗等政策情况，以及美联储降 息、特朗普政策关税等。 ◆ 烧碱： 4 月 2 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 2511 元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may continue to adjust in the short - term but are likely to be bullish in the long - term, with a short - term high - level wide - range shock. It is recommended to exit long positions on rallies and replenish after a pullback. The price reference range is 79,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices may have room for correction, and it is recommended to go long in batches as the price pulls back. Attention should be paid to inventory data [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [5]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility. It is recommended to build positions on dips, with the reference operating range for the SHFE 05 contract being 280,000 - 315,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basic Metals 3.1.1 Copper - As of April 2, the SHFE copper main 05 contract closed down 0.01% at 79,890 yuan/ton. US tariff policies and supply - side events have affected prices. The domestic spot market has weak demand, and social inventories are slightly decreasing. The copper market in the US may face arbitrage pressure, and prices may continue to adjust. In the short - term, prices may stop falling and stabilize, and in the long - term, they are likely to rise [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - As of April 2, the SHFE aluminum main 05 contract closed down 0.24% at 20,435 yuan/ton. The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and prices are falling. Alumina production capacity has decreased, and inventories have increased. Multiple alumina enterprises have cut production. Electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased. The downstream operating rate has risen, and inventories have decreased. Aluminum prices may have room for correction [2][3]. 3.1.3 Nickel - As of April 2, the SHFE nickel main 05 contract closed up 0.61% at 129,460 yuan/ton. The US economic situation has increased stagflation risks. The price of nickel ore is expected to rise, while refined nickel is in surplus. Nickel iron prices are strong, and stainless steel production is high. The price of nickel sulfate is strong, but demand is limited. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4][5]. 3.1.4 Tin - As of April 2, the SHFE tin main 05 contract closed up 3.89% at 297,590 yuan/ton. The recent price increase is due to the shortage of spot supply caused by the earthquake in Myanmar. Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and inventories are at a medium level. Prices are expected to be more volatile [6]. 3.2 Spot Transaction Summary 3.2.1 Copper - The domestic spot copper price slightly increased. The spot market had low pick - up volume, and downstream buyers were cautious. The overall stocking volume was mediocre [7]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - The spot aluminum price was stable in some regions and decreased in others. The spot market had average transactions. Sellers mainly sold goods before the festival, and the downstream had limited replenishment demand [8]. 3.2.3 Alumina - The alumina price decreased in various regions. The spot market had weak transactions, and downstream electrolytic aluminum manufacturers continued to suppress prices and purchase less [9]. 3.2.4 Zinc - The spot zinc price decreased. The terminal buying sentiment was low, and demand was limited [10][12]. 3.2.5 Lead - The spot lead price decreased. The downstream maintained a rigid demand for transactions, and the market atmosphere was relatively stable [12][13]. 3.2.6 Nickel - The spot nickel price was flat. The market maintained rigid demand for purchases, and the overall activity was not high [14][15]. 3.2.7 Tin - The spot tin price increased. Downstream enterprises were cautious and maintained a wait - and - see attitude [16][17]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased, while tin futures warehouse receipts increased. LME copper, tin, lead, zinc, and aluminum inventories decreased, and nickel inventory remained unchanged [19].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接货， 到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方会平 仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷，利润 越来少，限制棉花涨幅。由于特朗惠普 2.0 时代，中美博弈才开始，面 对出口严峻的形势以及国内稳定经济的组合拳，上半年胜负为明还相安 无事，主要区间震荡，但是到了下半年，我们要面对几个变数，一是新 疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种植棉花，其他种 植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%，新年度棉花丰 产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已 经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆国债： 止盈观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： 震荡运行 | | | ◆铁矿石： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆双焦： 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： 多单逢高离场，回调企稳补多 | | | ◆铝： 震荡运行，主力合约参考运行区间 | 20300-21000 | | ◆镍： 建议观望或逢高做空 | | | ◆锡： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆黄金： 逢低建仓，追高谨慎 | | | ◆白银： 逢低建仓，追高谨慎 | | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： 震荡。 | | | ◆纯碱： 看涨期权空头持有。 | | | ◆烧碱： 震荡 | | | ◆尿素： 震荡运行 | | | ◆甲醇： 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡运行 | | | ◆苹果： 震荡走强 | | | ◆PTA： 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： 震荡偏弱 | | | ◆鸡蛋： 近月支持较强，远月逢高偏空 | | | ◆玉米： 逢低做多 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - **Stock Index**: The White House announced that tariffs would take effect after April 2, Carney warned of Canadian counter - measures, Mexico sought to retain exemptions in the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and the EU was ready to retaliate. The US ISM manufacturing index contracted for the first time this year, and the price index reached a new high since June 2022. The US labor market slowed moderately, with February JOLTS job openings falling short of expectations. With tariff disturbances approaching and the earnings season, the stock index may be under pressure [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Wednesday's treasury bond issuance will bring some pressure to market expectations, but it's unlikely that the issuance rate will be significantly higher than the secondary - market rate. Overseas tariff issues are highly concerned, and the US is set to announce a reciprocal tariff list early on the 3rd. Due to many uncertainties, it's unwise to make radical unilateral investment operations before relevant news is confirmed. The market is expected to oscillate within a relatively narrow range in the coming period [3]. Strategy Recommendations - **Stock Index**: The stock index may oscillate weakly under pressure [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Take profits in a timely manner [4]. Market Review - **Stock Index**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 rose 0.08%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 fell 0.11%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 rose 0.66%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 rose 0.39% [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.08%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.04%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.15%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.04% [9]. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index shows a weakly oscillating trend [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows an oscillating trend [10]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 300 Main Continuation | 3859.60 | 0.08 | 40892 | 150013 | | 2025/03/10 | SSE 50 Main Continuation | 2661.80 | - 0.11 | 20983 | 50237 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 500 Main Continuation | 5850.60 | 0.66 | 42101 | 68724 | | 2025/03/10 | CSI 1000 Main Continuation | 6064.20 | 0.39 | 117820 | 159238 | | 2025/03/10 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 107.76 | - 0.08 | 56787 | 175280 | | 2025/03/10 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 105.57 | - 0.04 | 39077 | 155058 | | 2025/03/10 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 116.21 | 0.15 | 100609 | 102436 | | 2025/03/10 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuation | 102.35 | - 0.04 | 29815 | 96496 | [12]

长江期货粕类油脂月报 2025-03-31 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 联 系 人：姚 杨 执业编号:F03113968 01 豆粕：供应逐步转松，价格承压下行 02 油脂：供应改善预期下，期价上方承压 目 录 豆粕：供应逐步转松，价格承压下行 01 01 豆粕：供应逐步转松，价格承压下行 ◆ 期现端：截至2025年3月28日，美豆05合约报价1022.25分/蒲，周度下跌2.75美分；华东豆粕现货报价3050元/吨，月度下跌540元/吨；连盘豆粕 05合约收盘于2823元/吨，月度下跌109元/吨；基差报价05+230元/吨，月度下跌440元/吨。月度巴西大豆上市、多边贸易关系担忧压制美盘表现， 成本支撑以及美国生柴政策影响，美豆在1000美分/蒲附近触底反弹，整体美豆价格震荡偏弱运行；国内豆粕受库存去库不及预期以及后期供需边际 转松影响价格走势偏弱。 ◆ 供应端：3月USDA大豆供需报告显示，美豆单产维持至50.7美分/蒲，结转库存维持3.8亿蒲，符合市场预期。25/26年度3月美豆种植面积市场预估 在8300万吨，市 ...