Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Cotton is expected to move in a volatile range between 13080 - 13415 yuan/ton due to factors such as the approaching US Treasury bond maturity in June, changes in CFTC positions, and uncertainty over tariff policies [1]. - PTA is likely to face pressure as macro - level benefits are digested, downstream demand is weak, and supply is expected to increase [3]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to trade in a range, with potential price corrections after a rapid short - term increase [3]. - Short - fiber is expected to trade in a range, with prices being strong in the near term and weak in the long term due to the approaching off - season and the end of upstream spring maintenance [4]. - Sugar is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, influenced by factors such as the new sugar - cane season in Brazil and domestic supply - demand dynamics [4][5]. - Apples are expected to trade at a high level in a volatile range due to low inventory, although the market is currently in a state of stable demand [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - The spot price of lint cotton is relatively stable, with the 3128B index at 14578 yuan/ton, and the C32S yarn price index at 20470 yuan/ton. The cotton - yarn price difference is 5892 yuan/ton, and the basis is 1000 - 1300 yuan/ton [1]. - As of May 29, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 11537 (- 23) sheets, including 11157 (- 52) registered warehouse receipts and 380 (+ 29) valid forecasts [9]. - India has raised the minimum support price (MSP) for seed cotton in the 2025/26 season, with an 8.3% increase for medium - length cotton, 7.8% for longer - length cotton, and 7.9% for S - 6 cotton [9]. - In March 2025, US wholesalers' sales of clothing and fabrics increased by 3.49% year - on - year, inventory decreased by 6.46% year - on - year, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased to 2.06 [9]. PTA - As of May 22, 2025, the average PTA processing margin was 400.19 yuan/ton, up 2.38% month - on - month and down 2.33% year - on - year [8]. - As of May 22, the weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.22%, up 1.49% month - on - month and 5.39% year - on - year [8]. - As of the 20th, the PTA spot price dropped by 140 to 4855 yuan/ton. The polyester production cut affected market sentiment, and the spot basis weakened and then recovered [2][3]. Ethylene Glycol - The total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol in China was 55.38%, down 5.66% month - on - month. The production decreased by 9.28% week - on - week [14]. - International oil prices have declined, reducing the cost of ethylene glycol. Domestic maintenance has increased significantly, and imports have remained low, while demand has maintained a high operating rate [3]. Short - fiber - As of May 8, the weekly output of domestic short - fiber was 16.14 tons, a decrease of 0.55 tons month - on - month, and the capacity utilization rate was 85.33%, down 2.91% month - on - month [11]. - The cost of raw materials has increased, and supply has decreased, pushing up short - fiber prices. However, downstream demand remains weak, and prices are expected to be strong in the near term and weak in the long term [4]. Sugar - Forecasts suggest that in the first half of May in Brazil's central - southern region, sugar production may decline by 11.5% to 229 tons, and ethanol production may decline by 7.9% to 1.85 billion liters [14]. - Ukraine has completed the beet sowing for the 2025/26 season, with a total sown area of 217,100 hectares [14]. - Brazil exported 1.5723 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of May, a 23.15% decrease compared to the same period last year [14]. Apple - As of May 28, 2025, the total cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas was 1.5196 million tons, a decrease of 188,900 tons week - on - week [14]. - The prices of apples in Shaanxi Luochuan and Shandong Qixia are stable, with different price ranges for different grades [5][14][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall situation of the feed and breeding industry is complex, with different products showing various trends in the short, medium, and long term. The prices of most products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, and policies [1][2][4]. - In the short term, most products show a trend of price fluctuations and range - bound trading, while in the medium and long term, the prices are influenced by factors such as production capacity changes, consumption trends, and weather conditions [1][2][7]. Summary by Categories Pig - **Spot Prices**: On May 30, the spot price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.5 yuan/kg (stable), in Henan 14.4 - 14.8 yuan/kg (down 0.1 yuan/kg), in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.4 yuan/kg (stable), and in Guangdong 15.2 - 15.6 yuan/kg (stable) [1]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The supply pressure is gradually released, and the market has a strong sentiment to support prices. The demand for pre - holiday stocking increases, but the consumption off - season and losses of slaughterhouses limit the demand increase. The short - term price is supported at a low level and the volatility intensifies [1]. - **Medium - and Long - term Outlook**: From May to September 2024, the supply increases. From November 2024 to February 2025, the pressure on second - quarter shipments is large. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price still has a downward risk. From December 2024, the production capacity is reduced, but the reduction is limited, and the long - term price is under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is in a low - level range. The 07 contract has a pressure level of 13700 - 13800 and a support level of 13000 - 13100; the 09 contract has a pressure level of 14000 - 14200 and a support level of 13300 - 13400. Wait for the price to rebound to the pressure level and then go short [1]. Egg - **Spot Prices**: On May 30, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.8 yuan/jin (down 0.1 yuan/jin), and in Beijing 3.09 yuan/jin (down 0.09 yuan/jin) [2]. - **Short - term Outlook**: As the Dragon Boat Festival approaches, the terminal consumption is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is relieved, which supports the egg price. However, the supply pressure is still large, and the weather is unfavorable for storage, so the price is under pressure [2]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: From June to August 2025, the number of newly - laid hens will increase, and the supply increase trend is difficult to reverse [2]. - **Long - term Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the newly - laid hens may decrease month - on - month. Pay attention to the molting, elimination, and chicken diseases in the third quarter [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, be cautious about short - selling after June and pay attention to the pressure performance at 3020 - 3060; for the 08 and 09 contracts, take a short - biased approach and wait for the price to rebound to go short. The 08 contract pays attention to the pressure at 3750 - 3800; the 10 contract pays attention to the opportunity to go long at a low price [2][4]. Oil Palm Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national palm oil price changed by 20 - 80 yuan/ton to 8610 - 8710 yuan/ton [4]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From May 1 - 25, the export data improved, and the production increase slowed down. The inventory accumulation in May may be lower than expected, but the long - term inventory accumulation is a trend. The upgrade of the biodiesel blending standard will benefit domestic consumption. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the 08 contract will operate in the range of 3800 - 4000 [5]. - **Domestic Palm Oil**: The arrival volume in May and June is expected to be more than 200,000 tons each month. The inventory recovery is slow, but the inventory is expected to recover in the future [5]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national soybean oil price changed by 0 - 10 yuan/ton to 7920 - 8030 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Market**: The postponement of tariffs on the EU reduces macro risks. The heavy rainfall in Argentina and the possible slowdown of sowing in the US support the price of US soybeans, but the uncertainty of US biodiesel policies and the fast sowing progress limit the increase. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1050 - 1080 in the short term [6]. - **Domestic Market**: The arrival volume of soybeans from May to July is expected to reach about 10 million tons per month on average. The inventory has stopped falling and rebounded, and the future inventory is expected to increase [6]. Rapeseed Oil - **Spot Prices**: The national rapeseed oil price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 9400 - 9830 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Market**: The demand for Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season is strong, and the old - crop inventory continues to decline. The new - crop sowing is accelerating, and the passage of the 45Z Act is beneficial. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The current inventory is at a historically high level, and the supply pressure is large. The anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed restricts procurement, and the inventory is expected to decrease in the future. Pay attention to the result of the anti - dumping investigation [7]. - **Overall Strategy**: In the short term, the overall trend of oils is fluctuating. The 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils operate in the ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 respectively. Pay attention to the strategy of widening the price differences of the 09 contracts of soybean - palm, rapeseed - palm, and rapeseed - soybean oils [8]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Prices**: On May 29, the domestic soybean meal futures M2509 contract closed at 2962 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 2830 yuan/ton [8]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The smooth sowing of US soybeans and the bumper harvest in South America suppress the price, but the low carry - over inventory provides support. The domestic supply increases, and the spot price is expected to be weak. The 09 contract is expected to be strong [8]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The import cost of US soybeans increases, and the supply in the domestic off - season decreases. The domestic price is expected to be strong due to the increase in cost and the tightening of supply [8]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract operates in the range of [2900, 3000] in the short term and goes long on dips after mid - June [8]. Corn - **Spot Prices**: On May 29, the purchase price of new corn in Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton (stable), and the purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2456 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton) [9]. - **Short - term Outlook**: The increase in supply slows down the price increase, but the reduction of grassroots grain sources and the reduction of inventory support the price [9]. - **Long - term Outlook**: The supply in the 24/25 season is expected to be tight, but the supply of substitutes limits the price increase [9]. - **Strategy**: The 07 contract fluctuates at a high level (2300 - 2360), and goes long on dips at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [9][10]. Today's Futures Market Overview | Variety | Unit | Last Trading Day's Closing Price | Two Trading Days Ago's Closing Price | Daily Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Active | (US cents/bushel) | 1,050.75 | 1,048.50 | 2.25 | | Soybean Meal Main | (Yuan/ton) | 2,962 | 2,961 | 1.00 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Meal | (Yuan/ton) | 2,930 | 2,940 | - 10.00 | | CBOT Corn Active | (US cents/bushel) | 447.00 | 450.75 | - 3.75 | | Corn Main | (Yuan/ton) | 2,332 | 2,325 | 7.00 | | Dalian Corn Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 2,320 | 2,320 | 0.00 | | CBOT Soybean Oil Active | (US cents/pound) | 48.39 | 48.88 | - 0.49 | | Zhangjiagang Soybean Oil | (Yuan/ton) | 8,050 | 8,050 | 0.00 | | BMD Palm Oil Active | (Ringgit/ton) | 3,928 | 3,899 | 29.00 | | Guangzhou Palm Oil Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 8,700 | 8,600 | 100.00 | | ICE Rapeseed Active | (Canadian dollars/ton) | 715.50 | 730.80 | - 15.30 | | Fangchenggang Rapeseed Oil Spot | (Yuan/ton) | 9,420 | 9,410 | 10.00 | | Egg Main | (Yuan/500 kg) | 2,916 | 2,882 | 34.00 | | Dezhou Egg Spot | (Yuan/jin) | 2.90 | 2.90 | 0.00 | | Live Pig Futures Main | (Yuan/ton) | 13,640 | 13,560 | 80.00 | | Henan Live Pig Spot | (Yuan/kg) | 14.59 | 14.59 | 0.00 | [11]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 30 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议轻仓试空 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆纯碱： | 01 合约空头思路。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 区间震荡 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | 区 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - **Equity Index**: Trump's administration temporarily restored the tariff policy after the appeals court approved the request to halt the ruling against tariffs. Trump met with Powell and requested a rate cut, but Powell insisted on policy independence. Overall, before the trading volume effectively expands, the structural market of index fluctuations and rotation of thematic sectors is likely to continue [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On Thursday, the yield curve shifted upward across the board, and market sentiment was weak throughout the day. Although the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond 250004 rebounded to around 1.72%, approaching the upper limit of the yield range previously expected by some investors, and the yields of 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury bonds "filled the gap" created by the tariff shock. Despite substantial benefits such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and a decline in money market interest rates in the past two months, no strong allocation forces stepped in to buy bonds. This deviation between reality and intuition deserves attention [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of the CSI 300 Index rose 0.68%, the main contract futures of the SSE 50 Index rose 0.25%, the main contract futures of the CSI 500 Index rose 1.89%, and the main contract futures of the CSI 1000 Index rose 2.35% [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the Shanghai Composite Index suggests potential for volatile movement and adjustment risks [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a defensive and wait - and - see approach [2]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract fell 0.26%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.15%, the 30 - year main contract fell 0.65%, and the 2 - year main contract fell 0.06% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator of the T main contract shows volatile movement and potential for a rebound [10]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Bullish in the short term [4]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | CSI 300 Continuous Contract | 3832.80 | 0.68 | 70602 | 136268 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | SSE 50 Continuous Contract | 2673.60 | 0.25 | 37631 | 54235 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | CSI 500 Continuous Contract | 5668.60 | 1.89 | 68773 | 112167 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | CSI 1000 Continuous Contract | 6031.00 | 2.35 | 166397 | 187832 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 108.47 | - 0.26 | 72334 | 166334 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 105.87 | - 0.15 | 57177 | 138906 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 118.69 | - 0.65 | 94531 | 95648 | | 2025 - 05 - 29 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous Contract | 102.35 | - 0.06 | 32722 | 110993 | [12]

公司资质 能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 29 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4744 元/吨（-14），常州市场价 4650 元/吨（0），主力基差-94 元/吨(+14），广州市场价 4735 元/吨（-15）， 杭州市场价 4670 元/吨（-10）。PVC 库存仍在高位但略低于去年同期， 季节性去库过程中，前期基差走强给盘面一定的支撑。但中长期看，PVC 需求在地产拖累下持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，出口以 价换量持稳状态，且出口体量总体占比不大（12%左右），制品出口端关 税影响仍存；供应端有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位， 最近库存去化尚可但仍然高企。需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局， 但价格低位，基本面驱动有限，宏观主导。宏观面，中国将在 90 天内将 对美国商品的关税从 125%降至 10%，美国将在 90 天内将对中国商品的关 税从 145%降至 30%，短期关税缓和超过预期，但关税对需求的实质影响 预计仍存。上周末特朗普将对欧洲加征 50%关税，落地或有利于短期中 对美出口，后期关税谈判预计持续，继续关注关税进展。国内数据数据 有一定支撑，大 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 黑色产业团队 2025/5/30 公司资质 周四，螺纹钢期货价格小幅反弹，杭州中天螺纹钢 3120 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 142（-4），主要是美国法院裁定特朗普 关税无效，市场风险偏好提升，基本面方面，钢联统计口径产销数据较 好，螺纹钢表需持稳，不过需求季节性走弱只是时间问题，当下钢厂利 润尚好，主动减产意愿不足，螺纹即将进入累库周期，同时随着原料价 格下跌，钢材成本中枢下移。后市而言：估值方面，目前螺纹钢期货价格 已经跌至长流程成本附近，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端， 中美贸易环境改善，近期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业 端，现实供需转向宽松，短期在低估值背景下，预计价格震荡偏弱运行。 (数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿石盘面小幅反弹，美国法院裁定特朗普关税政策违法，国际 宏观情绪有所调整，但最新消息表明美国上诉法院允许特朗普关税暂时 继续生效。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 740 元/湿吨（+8）。普氏 62%指 数 97.20 美元/吨（+0.30），月均 99.24 美元/吨。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern before the Dragon Boat Festival, with fundamental support weakened but still present [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors such as the decline of PV installation rush and the arrival of the off - season [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to have limited downside due to cost support but may show a weak and volatile trend in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [3][5]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6]. Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 29, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.1% to 78130 yuan/ton. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the supply shortage pressure is difficult to change. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but was better than the same period. Low - level inventory supports the premium. The price is expected to be volatile before the festival [1]. - Domestic spot copper prices fell slightly, and the overall trading was quiet [7]. - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2696 tons to 32165 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 152375 tons [15]. Aluminum - As of May 29, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.25% to 20200 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities are changing, and the downstream开工率 is weakening. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [2]. - The spot market transaction was stable, but the overall trading was not active [8]. - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1723 tons to 51819 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2250 tons to 375075 tons [15]. Nickel - As of May 29, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract fell 0.63% to 120480 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market is tight, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The downstream demand is average. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][5]. - The spot price of nickel decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 nickel price was 120700 - 123000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121850 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 174 tons to 22170 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 720 tons to 200142 tons [15]. Tin - As of May 29, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract fell 1.48% to 257870 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and the price is volatile. The production and import of tin have changed, and the inventory is at a medium level. The price fluctuation is expected to increase [6]. - The spot price of tin decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 tin price was 257400 - 260400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 258900 yuan/ton, down 5700 yuan from the previous day [13]. - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 76 tons to 7908 tons, and LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 2680 tons [15]. Other Metals Zinc - The spot zinc market price decreased, and the trading was light. The import of goods made the supply more abundant, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed [10]. - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 99 tons to 1675 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2075 tons to 141375 tons [15]. Lead - The spot lead price increased slightly. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 lead price was 16660 - 16760 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 246 tons to 37252 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 288550 tons [15].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：承压运行 国内目前供需形势，4 月底商业库存只有 415 万吨，工业库存 95 万吨， 按照后面每月 65 万吨消费的话，到了 8 月底商业库存只有 155 万吨， 去年同期是 214 万吨，23 年炒作商业库存偏紧的年份是 163 万吨，显 然今年比 23 年还紧张（紧张的原因，配额、进口棉少了，月消费量并 不低，新疆上了很多产能），今年现货基差一直偏强就是这个原因，棉 花基本面供应是偏紧的，涨跌还得看基本面形势，这是本年度的供应形 势。到了 01 合约，新棉，目前新疆种植面积或有所扩大，新疆新开垦 的地 200 万亩，去年种植番茄其他作物，应该都改种棉花，所以预计 新棉丰产至 750 万吨，新年度就宽松了些，所以限制了涨幅。目前短 中期上涨高度受限，一方面，临近 6 月，国际局势博弈，另一方面，到 了 7、8 月份要谨慎，主要是原因是，此时又怕中美谈判不顺，会反复， 届时会价格会有回落。就目前来看，远期国内丰产缓解紧张，多个 50-70 万吨。未来棉价格上涨的高度，受到宏观影响，7、8 月后，谈判结果 是怎样，如果大好，美联储又降息，世界经济好转，棉花回落后还可以 继续涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand, with low prices and limited fundamental drivers, and the market is dominated by macro factors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 4900 level [2]. - The caustic soda market shows a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, with the market fluctuating. In the medium - term, supply is relatively sufficient and demand growth is limited, so the 09 contract should be shorted at high levels, and the monthly spread is suitable for positive arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the 2500 level pressure [3]. - The rubber market has fundamental pressure, with a significant decline in the three major rubber prices. The market lacks clear guidance, and the bearish sentiment of funds is rising [4]. - The urea market is in a pattern of stable supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue to run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support performance at 1775 - 1785 before the Dragon Boat Festival [6]. - The methanol market is in a state of relatively abundant supply and weak downstream demand, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The reference range for the 09 contract is 2150 - 2300 [8]. - The plastic market has a pattern of high - capacity, low - profit and weak demand. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with a reference range of 6950 - 7350 [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC - **Price Information**: On May 28, the closing price of the PVC main 09 contract was 4758 yuan/ton (-35), the market price in Changzhou was 4650 yuan/ton (-50), the main basis was -108 yuan/ton (-15), the market price in Guangzhou was 4750 yuan/ton (0), and the market price in Hangzhou was 4680 yuan/ton (-40) [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: PVC inventory is still at a high level but slightly lower than the same period last year. In the long - term, demand is weak due to the real estate drag, and exports are restricted. There are many new investment plans on the supply side, and the inventory is still high [2]. - **Macro Factors**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% within 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% within 90 days. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on Europe [2]. Caustic Soda - **Price Information**: On May 28, the closing price of the caustic soda main SH09 contract was 2456 yuan/ton (+7), the mainstream price in the Shandong market was 880 yuan/ton (0), and the converted - to - 100% price was 2750 yuan/ton (0) [3]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: In June, there are still many device overhauls, with good profits and high - level operation. There is a small amount of new device production expected, and the inventory is neutral. The demand of non - aluminum industries is affected by tariffs, and the alumina industry may resume production [3]. Rubber - **Inventory Information**: As of May 25, 2025, the total inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in Qingdao was 61.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.04 tons. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.74%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.38%. The Chinese natural rubber social inventory decreased by 2.5% [5]. - **Production Capacity Utilization**: As of May 22, 2025, the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.74%, a month - on - month increase of 2.53 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.35 percentage points [5]. - **Raw Material and Product Prices**: The price of Thai raw material glue was 62.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.1 Thai baht/kg. The price of whole - milk latex was 13750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.84% [5]. Urea - **Price and Supply Information**: The urea 2509 contract closed at 1790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.76%. The average daily price in the Henan market was 1829 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton. The Chinese urea start - up load rate was 87.84%, and the daily average output was 20.36 tons [6]. - **Demand and Inventory Information**: The demand for rice and corn fertilizers has not been fully released. The production capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 37.57%, and the inventory is decreasing. The urea enterprise inventory is 66.8 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons from last week [6]. Methanol - **Price and Supply Information**: The methanol 2509 contract closed at 2206 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.32%. The spot price in Taicang was 2240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The methanol device capacity utilization rate was 87.04%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from last week [8]. - **Demand and Inventory Information**: The methanol - to - olefins industry start - up rate is 83.82%, a month - on - month increase of 1.51 percentage points. The traditional demand is in the off - season. The methanol sample enterprise inventory is 23.52 tons, a decrease of 3.84 tons from last week, and the port inventory is 49.04 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons from last week [8]. Plastic - **Price and Supply Information**: On May 28, the plastic main contract closed at 6972 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50%. The polyethylene production start - up rate was 77.95%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output was 59.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97% [9]. - **Demand and Inventory Information**: The domestic agricultural film start - up rate is 14.05%, a decrease of 2.63% from last week. The PE packaging film start - up rate is 49.19%, an increase of 0.49% from last week. The upstream production enterprise and trader inventory has decreased, and the polyethylene warehouse receipt quantity is 5259 lots [9].

饲料养殖产业日报 日度观点 ◆生猪： 5 月 29 日辽宁现货 14.1-14.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；河南 14.4-14.8 元/ 公斤，较上一日稳定；四川 14.2-14.5 元/公斤，较上一日稳定；广东 15- 15.6 元/公斤，较上一日稳定，今日早间全国生猪价格稳定为主。5 月中下 旬养殖端加快出栏节奏，生猪出栏体重高位回落，供应压力释放，月底月末 养殖端或惜售，且局部地区调运政策影响，市场挺价情绪增强，低位二次育 肥滚动进场仍存。需求端，临近端午节备货需求增加，不过猪肉消费淡季， 且屠企利润仍亏损，需求增量有限，短期供需继续博弈，猪价低位存支撑， 震荡加剧，关注企业出栏节奏、二育进出情况、体重变化。中长期来看，能 繁母猪存栏 2024 年 5-11 月缓增，生产性能提升， 5-9 月供应呈增加态 势，根据仔猪数据，2024 年 11-2025 年 2 月仔猪同比增加，二季度出栏压 力仍大，叠加生猪体重偏高，而上半年消费淡季，在供强需弱格局下，猪价 仍有下跌风险，关注二育介入造成供应后移、冻品出入库以及饲料价格波动 对价格的扰动；2024 年 12 月开始，生猪产能有所去化，但行业有利润， 去 ...