有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 4 月 8 日收盘，沪铜主力 05 合约下跌 1.29%至 73360 元/吨。美 国推出对等关税政策，加征程度超预期，美国所有进口商品的实际关税 税率将从 2024 年年底的 2.3%升至 26%左右，达到 131 年来的最高水 平。其中今年对中国加征的关税就达到 54%若加上 2018 年美国对中国 加征的关税水平，已经显著超过 70%.。美国挑起的关税战加大了全球经 济衰退的概率，市场对美国经济将进入袁退的预期升温，市场恐慌情绪 周末二次发酵引发全球各类资产遭受无差别抛售，主要经济体股市，以 及重要大宗商品价格短期重挫。对冲基金为避免组合头寸爆仓大幅抛售 黄金等高位头寸，铜价也同样深度回撤。关税引发衰退的担忧，但铜长 期的需求逻辑仍在，铜矿及原料供应维持紧张，炼厂仍面临较大的原料 保供和保本压力，短期基本面仍有韧性，铜跌至 73000 一线后或将整固 回稳。不过关税扰动风险仍未完全释放，贸易战有螺旋加码的可能，后 续对经济层面的冲击仍有待观察，铜价的持续下行或将改变前期牛市运 行的特征。 产业服务总部 有色金属团队 2025-04-09 公司资质 长江期货股份有限 ...

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 短期来看，股指承压，待政府出台利好政策后，股指或将跟随政策力度出现 不同程度的反弹。中期来看，若出台超预期政策，我国经济结构改善，则股 指内生动能将显著增强。若无超常规政策出台与有效推进，则海外经济下行 风险较大的情况下，或对我国经济造成扰动，股指或仍承压运行。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡偏弱 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 中长期来看，随着全球贸易摩擦升级趋势日益明朗，经济基本面不确定性显 著增加，后续出口、工业生产及制造业投资均面临下行压力。在此背景下， 市场对货币政策宽松的预期不断增强，我们持续看好债市表现。不过需要警 惕的是，资金面波动及获利了结压力可能引发短期回调风险，投资者需密切 关注市场情绪变化。 ◆ 策略建议： 继续走强 研究咨询部 2025-04-08 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 张志恒 从业编号：F03102085 投资咨询编号：Z0021210 联系人： 彭博 咨询电话：(027) 65777169 从业编号：F3080600 1 / 9 ◆ 市场回顾： 沪深 300 股指主力合约期货跌 1 ...

棉纺策略日报 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手）,未点价，想接 货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双方 会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。4 月 3 日美国宣布了全球对等关税措施， 加征关税的幅度之大，尤其针对发展中国家加征幅度最大基本在 30% 以上，发达国家加征在 20%以上还算容易接受，其中纺织品出口国家 中国加征 34%（34%+20%=54%，中国关税加征最多）、越南 46%、 孟加拉 37%、巴基斯坦 29%、印度 26%、土耳其 10%，其他泰国 36%、 韩国 25%、日本 24%、马来西亚 24%、印度尼西亚 32%、南非 30%、 欧盟 20%。中美博弈进入激烈阶段，面对出口严峻的形势，认为 4 月 开始进入压力冲击阶段， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides daily insights on the feed and aquaculture industry, covering various products such as live pigs, eggs, oils, soybean meal, and corn. It analyzes the current market situation, supply - demand dynamics, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding trading strategies [1][2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - **Spot Price**: On April 8, the spot prices in Liaoning, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong were stable. The price in Liaoning was 14.1 - 14.4 yuan/kg, in Henan 14.3 - 15 yuan/kg, in Sichuan 14.2 - 14.6 yuan/kg, and in Guangdong 15.1 - 15.6 yuan/kg [1]. - **Market Analysis**: China's 34% counter - tariff on US imports from April 10 has limited direct impact on the pork market as the domestic pork import accounts for only about 5% and the US share is less than 1%. Currently, the industry still has breeding profits. In the short - term, large - scale farms control the weight of pigs for sale, and the low - price entry of secondary fattening and low slaughter inventory support the price. However, the price is under pressure due to cautious secondary fattening after price increases, increased large - pig sales, and limited terminal consumption. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply from April to September is expected to increase, and the price may fall back to the cost level. The forward price is also under pressure [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures are at a discount, reflecting a weak expectation. The general direction is to go short on rebounds. For the 05 contract, pay attention to the pressure at 13,500 - 13,600; for the 07 contract, 13,600 - 13,800; and for the 09 contract, 14,300 - 14,500. Sell out - of - the - money call options on the 07 and 09 contracts at high prices [1]. Eggs - **Spot Price**: On April 8, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in Beijing it was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin [2]. - **Market Analysis**: In April, the supply pressure is large due to the increasing number of old hens undergoing molting and newly - hatched chickens starting to lay eggs. The egg price is under pressure, but the increased culling of old hens and the digestion of inventory have marginally improved the supply - demand pattern. In the long - term, the high breeding profit from December 2024 to February 2025 led to high replenishment enthusiasm, resulting in more newly - laying hens in the second quarter. The supply increase trend in the second half of the year may be difficult to reverse [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: The 05 contract on the futures market has a slight premium over the spot. For non - holders, be cautious about shorting. The 08 and 09 contracts are considered bearish in general, but pay attention to the impact of feed costs and culling [2]. Oils - **Futures Price Movement**: On April 7, the US soybean oil May contract fell 1.14% to 45.20 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil June contract fell 3.40% to 4,182 ringgit/ton. The domestic palm oil price fell 410 - 460 yuan/ton, soybean oil 150 - 250 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil 250 - 280 yuan/ton [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Trump's tariff policy has increased the global economic recession expectation, dragging down the oil market. In Malaysia, the March export increased by 0.4 - 3.9% month - on - month, but the production increased by 5.10 - 9.48%. The inventory is expected to rise. After the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, Malaysian palm oil is expected to fluctuate weakly. In China, the supply - demand is in a tight balance in the short - term, but the price may decline in the long - term [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Although the US may increase the biodiesel blending ratio, the overall fundamentals are bearish. After the mutual tariff imposition, the domestic import of US soybeans incurs heavy losses, and the South American supply pressure is large. The US soybean is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. In China, the soybean and soybean oil inventories are decreasing, but the supply pressure will increase in the second quarter. The price may first fall and then rise in the long - term [6]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The uncertainties in the relations between the US, Canada, and China have affected the Canadian rapeseed export. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, but the supply pressure will ease after May. In the long - term, the rapeseed oil price is expected to stop falling and rebound [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: After the festival, domestic oils are expected to fluctuate weakly, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil relatively strong. In the second quarter, the overall oil price may decline, and then rebound in the third quarter. Temporarily observe the 05 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils, and pay attention to the support levels. Close the spread - widening position of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil [8]. Soybean Meal - **Futures and Spot Price**: On April 7, the US soybean 05 contract rose 6 cents to 983 cents/bu. The domestic soybean meal spot price in the East China region was 3,120 yuan/ton, with a basis of 05 + 220 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Analysis**: China's tariff policy on US imports has a limited direct impact on soybean meal before July, but it may push up the bottom price of the 05 and 07 contracts due to sentiment. The abundant supply from South America will limit the upward space. In the long - term, the tariff will increase the import cost and tighten the supply, driving up the domestic soybean meal price [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be cautious about going long on the 05 and 07 contracts. Go long on the 09 contract at low prices. Do a reverse spread on the 7 - 9 contract and a positive spread on the 9 - 1 contract. For spot enterprises, be cautious about arranging the basis from May to September, and price at low levels if there is an existing basis. Arrange the basis after September according to the crushing profit or use the 9 - 1 positive spread [8]. Corn - **Spot Price**: On April 7, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2,180 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,230 yuan/ton. The purchase price in Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2,334 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short - term, there is still a selling demand from the grass - roots level, and the port inventory is high, putting pressure on the spot price. However, the market sentiment is bullish, and the downstream has replenishment demand. In the long - term, the corn production in the 24/25 season has decreased, and the import has continued to decline, but the supply is supplemented by substitutes, limiting the upward space [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Generally, be bullish on the corn market. Look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on pullbacks, and pay attention to the 2,250 support level. Do positive spreads on the 5 - 9 and 5 - 7 contracts [10]. Today's Futures Market Overview - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, eggs, live pigs, etc. on the previous and the day before the previous trading days [11].

◆ 烧碱： 4 月 7 日烧碱主力 SH05 合约收 2477 元/吨（-24），山东市场主流价 845 元/吨（-10），折百 2641 元/吨（-31），液氯山东 100 元/吨（+99）。 4 月 1 日开始，山东地区某氧化铝厂家采购 32%离子膜碱价格下调 15 元/ 吨，执行出厂 795 元/吨（折百 2484 元/吨）。截至 20250403，隆众资 讯统计全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本企业厂库库存 47.77 万吨(湿 吨)，环比下跌 2.99%，同比上调 12.07%。假期外盘波动很大，原油作为 化工之首，受关税和 opec 意外增产巨幅下跌，影响最大的是油品类，聚 酯和 EB 链，关税反制 LPG 和烯烃影响多空存在对冲，煤化工目前影响相 对较小，需求被动走弱，情绪上影响偏弱，叠加自身供需疲弱的态势， 氯碱链整体维持偏弱看待。目前看利润中性、库存偏高，后期检修装置 存恢复预期，氧化铝利润走弱，边际产能减产增多，非铝需求弹性不足； 贸易冲突加剧、海外衰退预期发酵，市场情绪偏差。但出口签单或有改 善，后期液氯或存跌价预期。盘面下行亦偏谨慎，谨慎偏弱。继续关注 魏桥送货量，库存去化情况。中期关 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格低开后震荡运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3190 元/吨， 较节前下跌 50 元/吨，05 合约基差 107（+31），主要受关税风波影响， 清明期间外盘大跌，市场氛围悲观。就钢材而言，关税对直接出口影响 不大，2024 年中国对美钢材出口量 89 万吨，仅占出口总量的 0.8%，不 过间接影响相对较大，根据 Mysteel 测算，去年我国钢铁间接出口量达 到 1.4 亿吨，其中对美国出口达到 1000 多万吨，叠加部分转出口也受到 影响，因此后期钢材直接与间接出口均会受到一定冲击。近日全美爆发 大规模反特朗普示威，美国对等关税政策是否会按期落地仍需观察，另 外国内除了关税反击以外，是否会出台财政与货币政策也需要进一步观 察。短期来看，一方面市场情绪受到冲击，另一方面钢材实际需求承压， 预计钢价震荡偏弱运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周一，铁矿期货价格低开高走。关税利空有所缓和。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 768 元/湿吨（-16）。普氏 62%指数 98.85 美元/吨（-2.95）， 月均 102.32 美元/吨。PBF ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 4 月 8 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆国债： | 继续走强 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 等市场恐慌情绪完全释放后考虑适度布局多单 | | ◆铝： | 加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间操作 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间操作 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆纯碱： | 看涨期权空头持有。 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏空 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡走强 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 近月支持较强，远月逢高偏空 | | ◆玉米： | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US tariff war increases the probability of a global economic recession, leading to a short - term slump in major commodity prices. Although the long - term demand logic for copper remains, the tariff risk has not been fully released, and the continuous decline in copper prices may change the previous bull - market characteristics [1] - For aluminum, the overall ore supply is improving, but there are still short - term downward risks. It is recommended to strengthen observation and pay attention to policy changes [3] - The US tariff policy may suppress future nickel demand, and with the continuous surplus of pure nickel, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - The US tariff policy causes a callback in tin prices, but the recovery of the downstream semiconductor industry may support demand, and price fluctuations are expected to increase. It is recommended to build positions at low prices [6] Group 3: Summary by Metal Type Copper - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai copper closed at 73,640 yuan/ton, down 7.01%. The US tariff war led to a sharp decline in copper prices, but the long - term demand logic remains, and it may stabilize after falling to 73,000 yuan. However, tariff risks still exist [1] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices plummeted, and the buying sentiment was weak with limited transactions [7] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9,136 tons to 116,824 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 575 tons to 210,225 tons [19] Aluminum - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,685 yuan/ton, down 3.67%. The overall ore supply is improving, the alumina production capacity is decreasing, and the electrolytic aluminum production capacity is flat. The downstream demand is weak, and there are short - term downward risks [2][3] - In the spot market, the spot aluminum price followed the decline of the futures price. The trading atmosphere was dull in the afternoon [8] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 5,455 tons to 126,177 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,050 tons to 454,700 tons [19] Nickel - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 118,640 yuan/ton, down 7.51%. The macro - environment is unfavorable, the nickel ore supply is tight, the refined nickel is in surplus, and the nickel iron price is strong. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] - In the spot market, the purchasing enthusiasm increased as the nickel price fell [16] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons to 27,166 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 1,908 tons to 202,308 tons [19] Tin - As of April 7, the main 05 contract of Shanghai tin closed at 267,800 yuan/ton, down 8.75%. The spot supply is tight, the semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and price fluctuations are expected to increase. It is recommended to build positions at low prices [6] - In the spot market, there was a strong fear of falling, with mostly on - lookers and only a small number of traders buying at low prices [17] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts increased by 133 tons to 9,641 tons, and LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 2,990 tons [19] Other Metals (Zinc, Lead, Alumina) - **Zinc**: Spot zinc prices fell, the market trading was dull, and the terminal procurement volume was limited [10][12] - **Lead**: Spot lead prices fell, and downstream buyers purchased on demand at low prices [13][14] - **Alumina**: Domestic alumina spot prices fell, the market transaction improved slightly, and the overall demand was inelastic [9]

中美互征关税对油脂油料的影 响分析 核心观点 2025 年 4 月 2 日，川普宣布对等关税，表示将对所有国家征收 10%的 基准关税（4 月 5 日生效），同时对所有中国商品额外加征 34%关税。之后 4 月 4 日，中国宣布将从 4 月 10 日起对所有美国商品加征 34%关税。在清 明节后，国内粕系因为担心美豆进口受限后的供应紧张局面而高开。另一方 面，油脂因为国际原油和外盘油脂大跌拖累，节后大幅下跌，油粕走势明显 分化。中美贸易紧张加剧对油脂油料影响几何？本文将对此进行分析。 对豆粕影响上，我们认为关税事件对二季度国内大豆的供应影响有限， 主要从情绪上支撑价格。虽然加税从成本端推高豆油价格，但 4-6 月期间中 国本身就倾向于购买更便宜的巴西豆，对美豆采买的量非常少，关税事件只 会进一步压缩已经很少的美豆旧作采买需求。二是二季度巴西豆大量到港， 月均到港量达 1000 万吨级，可以有效弥补美豆进口受阻后的供应空缺。不 过从中长期来看，如果三四季度美豆进口中国仍然受阻，则美豆供应季期间 的国内大豆供应可能明显下降，利好远月豆粕价格。 对油脂影响上，虽然关税事件短期通过阻碍美豆进口，对豆油价格有一 定的提 ...

金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 股指或承压运行，国债短 期看好 2025-04-07 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 01 金融期货策略建议 01 股指策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 股指走势回顾：主要宽基指数周涨幅均为负数。沪深300、中证500跌超1%。 p 核心观点：美国3月非农新增就业大超预期，达到22.8万，因劳动参与率上升、失业率走高。美联储主 席鲍威尔警告新关税带来的经济影响可能远超预期，他同时暗示因为政府政策及其影响尚不明朗，暂时 不会调整利率。11箭齐发、中国反制！4月10日12时起对美加征34%关税、中重稀土出口管制。人民日 报评论员：降准、降息等货币政策工具已留有充分调整余地。美国关税超预期，但我国关税反击迅速强 硬，政策态度强势，股指承压但后续利好政策出台预期将一定程度上支持股指，股指或震荡偏弱运行。 p 技术分析：KDJ指标显 ...