有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 4 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约上涨 0.53%至 78200 元/吨。节 日期间美关税影响再起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价增添不利的 情绪影响。上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场 TC 价格持 稳-43 左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较 大。卡库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或 带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发 货较少，节前库存再度表现下降，但去库幅度较小。节后，考虑节假期 间市场到货量预计有所增加，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，近月高 BACK 月 差结构以及关税不利情绪影响再起，铜价上行空间将受到限制。但基于 目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存，下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期 或仍维持震荡格局。关注近月合约持仓状况。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 4 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约上涨 0.68%至 20075 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，后续关注是否有复产 可能。几内亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击， 其影响要等到 7 月份才能体现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the disk facing pressure at the 4800 level. The market is influenced by weak costs, demand, high production, and inventory, but may be supported by unexpected domestic stimulus policies [2]. - The caustic soda market shows a pattern of strong current situation but weak future expectations. In June, the spot supply - demand may be locally tight, but in the medium - term, it will likely oscillate weakly, with the 09 contract being mainly short - sold at high levels, and facing pressure at the 2400 level [3]. - The styrene market has a relatively high valuation and a tendency towards loose supply - demand. It is recommended to short at high prices, with the main contract facing pressure at the 7200 level [5]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to macro - level news and sentiment [6]. - The urea market has a pattern of oversupply. It may rebound to a limited extent due to the recent coal price increase, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1730 - 1850 [7]. - The methanol market has a relatively abundant supply. It may rebound to some extent following the coal price increase, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2300 [8]. - The polyolefin market is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. The L2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 6950 - 7350, and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6850 - 7200 [9][10]. - The soda ash market has a short - term upward movement in the futures price due to market sentiment, but the spot is weak, and the upward space of the disk is limited. A short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [11]. Summary by Product PVC - On June 4, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4834 yuan/ton (+89), with different market prices in various regions. The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate drag and export restrictions, and the supply pressure is large in the third quarter. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the market is macro - dominated [2]. Caustic Soda - On June 4, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2367 yuan/ton (-4). The supply has good profits and high - level operation, with some new device production expected. There will be concentrated maintenance in June, and the demand has mixed signals, with the 09 contract facing pressure at 2400 [3]. Styrene - On June 4, the styrene main contract was at 7090 (+72) yuan/ton. The supply is expected to increase in June, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall valuation is high, and it is recommended to short at high prices [5]. Rubber - On June 4, the three rubber disks rebounded. The raw material price decline is limited, the demand has no obvious improvement, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the tire enterprise capacity utilization rate has declined [6]. Urea - The urea 09 contract closed at 1774 yuan/ton, with the spot price in Henan rising. The supply is high, the agricultural demand has some potential, and the industrial demand is mixed. The inventory has increased, and it may rebound within a limited range [7]. Methanol - The methanol 09 contract rose 2.39% to close at 2270 yuan/ton. The supply is abundant, the cost - profit situation is stable, the demand from the olefin industry is improving, while the traditional demand is weak. The inventory has increased, and it may follow the coal price to rebound [8]. Polyolefin - On June 4, the L main contract rose 1.24% to 7049 yuan/ton, and the PP main contract rose 0.93% to 6948 yuan/ton. The supply pressure will increase in the future, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a certain downward trend. The market is expected to oscillate widely [9][10]. Soda Ash - The futures price of soda ash rose to narrow the basis due to market sentiment, while the spot market is weak. The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory is expected to accumulate again. A short recommendation is maintained for the 01 contract [11].

6 月 5 日山东德州报价 2.7 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.02 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期端午节后需求转弱，叠加梅雨季来临，鸡蛋容易发生质量问 题，渠道及下游采购心态偏弱，蛋价支撑有限，不过近期淘汰有所加速，一 定程度缓解供应压力，各环节库存有所消化，关注蛋价跌至低位后冷库入库 积极性。中期来看，25 年 3-4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 7-8 月新开 产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需 要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长 期来看，经过上半年养殖利润不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季 度新开产或环比减少，关注三季度淘汰及鸡病情况。短期节后需求转弱，蛋 价支撑不足，三季度供需双增，蛋价反弹承压，四季度供应压力或有所缓 解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月后限仓，观望为 主，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，养殖企业等待反 弹逢高套保，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰动；10 关注 逢低多机会。关注淘鸡、鸡病、天气等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花顺 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall**: The report analyzes the market conditions of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, suggesting that the prices of these commodities will generally show a volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see [1][3][4]. - **Steel**: The price of rebar futures rebounded significantly on Wednesday. The increase was driven by the rise in coking coal prices. The current supply - demand situation is turning loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market is affected by macro - news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730 [1]. - **Coking Coal**: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, but the spot market lacks substantial support. The supply - demand contradiction is deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly [3]. - **Coke**: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated. The supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved, and there is still downward pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Steel - **Price**: The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3,120 yuan/ton on Wednesday, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (-16) [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The recent production and sales data of rebar are good, and the apparent demand remains stable. However, the seasonal decline in demand is only a matter of time. The profit of long - process steel mills is good, while that of short - process steel mills is poor. It is expected that the steel production will decline steadily, and inventory depletion will slow down or accumulate slightly [1]. - **Outlook**: The current futures price of rebar has fallen near the long - process cost, and the static valuation is at a low level. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. Iron Ore - **Price**: On Wednesday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 733 yuan/wet ton (+6), the Platts 62% index was 96.35 US dollars/ton (+1.00), and the monthly average was 96.00 US dollars/ton. The PBF basis was 70 yuan/ton (-2) [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,830.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.5. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,620.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 292.40. The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel enterprises was 241.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69 [1]. - **Outlook**: The price is mainly affected by macro - news. The high - output transportation at the end of the fiscal year of overseas mainstream mines will generally take effect in early July. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to decline, and the price will fluctuate within the range of 690 - 730. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Coking Coal - **Price**: Affected by market news and the need to repair the basis, the coking coal futures price rose significantly on Wednesday, but the spot market lacks substantial support [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some coal mines in the main production areas have increased regional production cuts due to safety inspections and inventory pressure, but the overall production capacity release is still relatively stable. The inventory pressure of coal mines is gradually transmitted to the middle and lower reaches. The import volume of Mongolian coal is restricted by weak demand, and the inventory in the supervision area continues to accumulate to a high level, putting pressure on traders' quotations. The negative feedback in the coke market continues, and coke enterprises maintain a low level of raw material inventory, mainly for rigid demand replenishment. The molten iron output of steel mills has declined from a high level, and the raw material price - cutting intention has increased, intensifying the game between coking and steel enterprises [3]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is gradually deepening, and the price may continue to fluctuate weakly. It is necessary to focus on the supply - side news disturbances, the profit repair rhythm of coking and steel enterprises, and the impact of imported coal cost changes on the domestic market sentiment [3]. Coke - **Price**: Affected by the coking coal market, the coke price fluctuated on Wednesday, but the supply - demand contradiction remains unresolved [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production rhythm of coke enterprises in the main production areas remains stable, and some regions maintain normal production restrictions, but the overall capacity utilization rate has not changed significantly. Recently, the coke inventory shows regional differentiation, and the inventory pressure in the production area is gradually emerging. The trading volume in the port trade link remains low due to weak market sentiment. The terminal steel market has entered the seasonal consumption off - season, the molten iron output of steel mills has clearly peaked and declined, and the procurement enthusiasm has significantly weakened, mainly for rigid replenishment [4]. - **Outlook**: There is still downward pressure on the coke price. The current market game focus is on the matching degree between the unbalanced distribution of industrial chain profits and the expectation of terminal demand recovery. If the steel sales continue to be weak, the negative feedback transmission effect may further intensify the coke price adjustment [4]. 4. Industry News - **Weather**: From June 4th to 5th, most parts of the country will be sunny with little rain. Starting from the day after tomorrow, large - scale rainfall will occur in Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, and South China, with severe local rainfall and strong convective weather [5]. - **Price Adjustment**: Some steel mills in Hebei have proposed to cut the coke price by the third round. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 50 yuan/ton, and that of tamping dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 55 yuan/ton. The price of top - charging wet - quenched coke will be reduced by 70 yuan/ton, and that of top - charging dry - quenched coke will be reduced by 75 yuan/ton, effective at zero o'clock on June 6, 2025 [5]. - **Project Progress**: On June 4th local time, Hu Wangming, the Party Secretary and Chairman of Baowu, inspected the Ashburton iron ore project in Australia. The project is in the production capacity ramping - up stage and aims to achieve an annual full - system capacity of 30 million tons in the third quarter of this year [5]. - **Production Resumption**: On June 4th, a 2500m³ blast furnace and supporting rolling mill of Shougang Shuigang resumed production, with a daily increase of 0.6 million tons of construction steel production [5]. - **Urban Renovation**: In 2025, the country plans to start the renovation of 25,000 old urban residential areas. From January to April, 5,679 old urban residential areas have started renovation [5].

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 6 月 3 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4745 元/吨（-19），常州市场价 4670 元 /吨（-10），主力基差-75 元/吨(+9），广州市场价 4740 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4670 元/吨（-10）。基本面，长期看 PVC 需求在地产拖累下 持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总体占比不大 （12%左右）；供应端三季度有不少新投计划，且烧碱利润高开工持续维 持高位，供应压力较大；需求不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局。最近库 存去化尚可，略低于去年同期，季节性去库过程中，基本面驱动有限， 宏观主导。宏观面，经过 4 月初贸易战突发的冲击影响逐步淡化，近期 关税缓和超过预期，但关税对需求的实质影响预计仍存，继续关注进一 步的演化。国内一季度数据表现偏好，二季度转出口或有一定支撑，国 内大规模刺激政策短期或难出台。重点关注关税谈判进展、国内刺激政 策力度。总的来看，弱成本、弱需求、高产量、高库存持续压制，绝对 价格低位。PVC 估值偏低，驱动偏弱，盘面预计偏震荡。若国内刺激政 策超预期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预期继续恶化， ...

有色金属日报 基本金属 ◆ 铜： 截至 6 月 3 日收盘，沪铜主力 07 合约下跌 0.13%至 77650 元/吨。节 日期间美关税影响再起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价增添不利的 情绪影响。上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场 TC 价格持 稳-43 左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较 大。卡库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或 带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发 货较少，节前库存再度表现下降，但去库幅度较小。节后，考虑节假期 间市场到货量预计有所增加，下游消费逐渐由旺转淡，近月高 BACK 月 差结构以及关税不利情绪影响再起，铜价上行空间将受到限制。但基于 目前库存仍维持低位，供应端扰动仍存，下跌空间同样有限。沪铜近期 或仍维持震荡格局。关注近月合约持仓状况。 ◆ 铝： 截至 6 月 3 日收盘，沪铝主力 07 合约下跌 1.12%至 19860 元/吨。几 内亚 AXIS 矿区被划入战略储备区域、禁止开采，后续关注是否有复产 可能。几内亚矿端扰动尚未对当下铝土矿供应宽松的局面造成直接冲击， 其影响要等到 7 月份才能体现 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pig price will fluctuate and adjust with a risk of decline; in the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large and the forward price rebound is under pressure. Egg prices are under pressure in the third quarter and the supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter. Palm oil shows short - term rebound but has limited long - term upside. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil also have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be range - bound in the short - term and trend moderately stronger in the long - term. Corn prices are expected to be moderately stronger, with short - term support and long - term upward drive but limited upside due to substitutes [1][2][7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Pig - **Spot price**: On June 4, the spot price in Liaoning was 13.9 - 14.2 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.1 - 14.5 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.1 - 14.3 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 15.2 - 15.8 yuan/kg, stable [1]. - **Market situation**: In June, the pig supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the overall consumption is weak. However, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening and frozen product inventory entry still exists, limiting the decline of pig prices. In the long - term, the supply from June to September 2024 will increase, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is still large [1]. - **Strategy**: The futures price is at a low level and fluctuates in the short - term. Wait to short at the resistance level after the rebound. The resistance and support levels for different contracts are given [1]. 2. Egg - **Spot price**: On June 4, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 2.7 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.02 yuan/jin, stable [2]. - **Market situation**: After the Dragon Boat Festival, the demand weakens, and the egg price support is limited. In the medium - term, the supply in the future may increase due to high replenishment in March - April 2025. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter may ease [2]. - **Strategy**: For the 07 contract, wait and see; for the 08 and 09 contracts, be bearish in general; for the 10 contract, look for long opportunities at low prices [2]. 3. Oil Palm oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the Malaysian palm oil main 8 - month contract rose 1.44% to 3934 ringgit/ton [2]. - **Market situation**: In May, the export of Malaysian palm oil improved, the production increase slowed down, and the inventory accumulation was expected to slow down. The inventory in Indonesia decreased, and India has the demand to replenish inventory. In the long - term, the production will increase seasonally until October. In China, the palm oil inventory has recovered and will continue to rise [3][4]. - **Strategy**: The 08 contract may rebound in the short - term, pay attention to the performance at the 8000 resistance level. The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8300 [4][7]. Soybean oil - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean oil main 7 - month contract rose 1.25% to 46.81 cents/pound [2]. - **Market situation**: The US biofuel blending plan is about to be announced. The US soybean fundamentals are mixed. In China, the soybean arrival volume from May to July is large, and the soybean oil inventory has increased, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation [5]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 7500 - 8000 [7]. Rapeseed oil - **Market situation**: The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing and export is strong, and the old - crop inventory is declining. The new - crop sowing is normal. In China, the inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure is large. Pay attention to the changes in China - Canada relations [6]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9500 [7]. 4. Soybean Meal - **Futures price**: On June 3, the US soybean 07 contract rose 7.25 cents to 1040.75 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal M2509 contract closed at 2935 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the US soybean price is expected to fluctuate. In China, the soybean arrival increases, and the spot price is expected to be weak. In the long - term, the domestic soybean meal price will trend moderately stronger [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The 09 contract will be range - bound in the short - term, and go long on dips after mid - June [8]. 5. Corn - **Spot price**: On June 3, the new corn purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2280 yuan/ton, stable; the平仓 price was 2320 yuan/ton. The purchase price at Shandong Weifang Xingmao was 2460 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market situation**: In the short - term, the supply increases, but the price has support. In the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside is limited due to substitutes [8]. - **Strategy**: Be moderately bullish. The 07 contract will fluctuate at a high level, and go long at the lower edge of the range. Pay attention to the 7 - 9 positive spread arbitrage [8]. 6. Today's Futures Market Overview - The table shows the prices, price changes of various futures and spot products such as CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc. on the previous trading day and the day before the previous trading day [9].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The steel market is facing challenges with demand seasonally weakening, production expected to decline, and inventory trends shifting. The cost of steel is also decreasing due to falling raw material prices. The market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [1]. - The iron ore market is relatively stable, with production maintained by coal price concessions and influenced more by macro - news. It is expected to oscillate within a certain range [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are in a weak state, with deepening supply - demand contradictions and expected short - term weak adjustments or downward trends [3][4]. Section Summaries 1. Steel (Rebar) - On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was weak. The Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3090 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 10 - contract basis was 162 (+13). - The latest production and sales data showed stable apparent demand, but demand is likely to weaken seasonally. Long - process steel mills have good profits, while short - process ones have poor profits. Production is expected to decline steadily, and inventory removal will slow or slightly increase. - With falling raw material prices, the cost center of steel has shifted down. The current futures price is near the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. - In the short term, with a low - valuation background, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [1]. 2. Iron Ore - On Tuesday, the iron ore futures oscillated. The spot price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 727 yuan/wet ton (-8), and the Platts 62% index was 96.30 dollars/ton (-0.50). - The total shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,830.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.5. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22,620.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 292.40. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 241.91 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69. - The iron ore market is relatively strong due to coal price concessions. It is more affected by macro - news, and the high - output effect of overseas mainstream mines at the end of the fiscal year will be seen in early July. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline. - Technically, the long and short forces on the futures are not obvious. It is expected to oscillate within the 690 - 730 range, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. 3. Coking Coal - Supply: Domestic main - producing area coal mines have stable production, but some mines have limited production or short - term shutdowns due to inventory pressure. The import volume from Mongolia is restricted by weak demand, and the port quotation is under pressure. - Demand: Coking and steel enterprises maintain a low - inventory strategy. Coking enterprises have low purchasing willingness due to shrinking profits, and the decline in steel mill hot - metal production suppresses raw material consumption. - Inventory: Coal mines face significant inventory pressure, and some mines are at full capacity. Coking plant raw - coal inventory has further decreased, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. - Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the coking coal market is deepening, and it may continue to adjust weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of steel terminal demand, import coal price fluctuations, and domestic coal mine inventory removal and production reduction [3]. 4. Coke - Supply: Main - producing area coking enterprises maintain stable production, with only a few adjusting production due to environmental inspections and shipment pressure. - Demand: Steel mills maintain a low - inventory strategy for raw materials, with weak purchasing enthusiasm. The decline in hot - metal production weakens the rigid demand for coke, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is deepening. - Inventory: Coking enterprise on - site inventory is accumulating rapidly, and some areas are offering discounts. Steel mill coke available days are decreasing, and they have a clear tendency to control volume and reduce prices. - Cost: Raw - coal prices are also falling, but the decline in coke is faster, causing some cost - sensitive coking enterprises to face losses. - Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the coke market is intensifying, and it may continue to decline weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the recovery of terminal steel consumption, steel mill profit repair, and the impact of macro - policies on the industry chain [4]. 5. Industry News - Five departments including the Ministry of Commerce will organize the 2025 new - energy vehicle rural promotion campaign, with special and characteristic activities in selected counties and surrounding towns [5]. - US President Trump raised the import tariffs on steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50% (except for imports from the UK, which remain at 25%), effective from June 4, 2025, 00:01 EST [5]. - On June 3, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australian Trade Minister Farrell in Paris, discussing issues such as deepening China - Australia economic and trade relations and strengthening multilateral and regional economic and trade cooperation [5]. - According to the China National Coal Association, in mid - May, the output of key coal enterprises was 60.34 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. The cumulative output in the first and mid - May was 119 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [5]. - In May 2025, 12 steel projects started or were put into production, including projects of Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Zhanjiang Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., and Zhongtian Huai'an Company [5].

宏观反复，需求转淡 2025-6-3 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 行情回顾 宏观与基本面分析 目 录 铝价走势展望 01 02 03 04 01 行情回顾 01 沪铝行情回顾 02 宏观与铝基本面分析 17000 17500 18000 18500 19000 19500 20000 20500 21000 21500 22000 2025/05/28 2025/05/23 2025/05/20 2025/05/15 2025/05/12 2025/05/07 2025/04/29 2025/04/24 2025/04/21 2025/04/16 2025/04/11 2025/04/08 2025/04/02 2025/03/28 2025/03/25 2025/03/20 2025/03/17 2025/03/12 2025/03/07 2025/03/04 2025/02/27 2025/02/24 2025/02/1 ...

关税影响再起 有色金属整体继续震荡运行 有色金属基础周报 2025-06-03 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 有色中心】 研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 联系人：张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 主要品种观点综述 | | 走势状态 | 行情观点 | 架作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 节前铜价重心小幅上移，现货分水有所回落，铜价维持高位震荡运行。节日期间美关摄影响用起，金融市场再现动荡，短期将对铜价湾添不利的情 | | | | | 绪影响。 上游进口铜精矿市场整体交投氛围清淡，现货市场TC价格持稳-43左右，冶炼厂对加工费的接受度已达极限，后续继续下行阻力较大。 卡 | | | | 高位偏强震荡 76500-79500 | 库拉矿山地震虽未影响近期发运，但节后若持续停产减少发运或带来供应冲击。下游节前备货需求较为一般，新增订单有限，但炼厂发货较少，节 | 区间交易 | | | | 前库存 ...