2025年05月23日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.40%，收于 20270 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 260 元/吨， | | | LME 价格 2458 美元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | 铝 | 交易策略：短期铝下游加工开工率、铝棒出库量均有下降，当前铝实际消费呈现出走弱的态势，虽然关税问 | | | 题有所缓和，但传递到实物需求之上仍需要一定的时间，短期内来看铝价维持震荡偏弱走势。 | | | 操作建议：观望。 | | | 风险提示：海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | 市场表现：昨日氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.92%，收于 3216 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-105 元/吨。 | | | 基本面：供应方面，氧化铝厂阶段性检修及压产增加，运行产能下降。需求方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产， | | 氧 | 运行产能小幅上升。 | | 化 | 交易策略：短期氧化铝受几内亚 ...

金融研究 2025年5月22日 星期四 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 21 日，A 股四大股指多数上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.21%，报收 3387.57 点；深成 指上涨 0.44%，报收 10294.22 点；创业板指上涨 0.83%，报收 2065.39 点；科创 50 指数下跌 0.22%， 报收 995.49 点。市场成交 12,144 亿元，较前日增加 31 亿元。行业板块方面，煤炭(+2.55%)，有色 金属(+2.05%)，电力设备(+1.11%)涨幅居前；美容护理(-1.09%)，电子(-0.93%)，传媒(-0.87%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IF>IH>IC>IM，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 1,615/196/3,599。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-82、-147、35、195 亿元，分别变动-128、-81、+72、+138 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 222.78、178.52、75.78 与 46.03 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-21.62%、-18.46%、-11.52%与-10.04%，三 ...

2025年05月22日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 昨日贵金属市场走强，以伦敦金计价的国际金价站上 3300 美元/盎司。 | | 属 | 【消息面】美国总统特朗普表示庞大的减税方案接近敲定；比特币涨破 10.9 万美元关口，突破其今年 1 月 20 | | | 日特朗普就职时创下的纪录高点；美国财政部拍卖 160 亿美元的 20 年期国债，拍卖惨淡，中标利率站上 5%， | | | 其中间接认购比例为 69.02%，虽然低于上月的 70.7%，但仍高于 67.2%的近期均值；欧盟抛出新的方案，逐 | | | 步将非敏感农产品和工业品的关税降至零、在能源、AI 和数字连接领域的互惠投资与战略采购计划，希望以 | | | 此促成贸易协议，试图在满足美方关切与保护自身利益间取得平衡。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | 美国零售巨头塔吉特第一季度销售大幅下滑 2.8%至 238.5 亿美元，可比销售下降 3.8%； | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日继续流出，COM ...

金融研究 2025年5月21日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 20 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.38%，报收 3380.48 点；深成 指上涨 0.77%，报收 10249.17 点；创业板指上涨 0.77%，报收 2048.46 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.24%， 报收 997.68 点。市场成交 12,112 亿元，较前日增加 923 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+2.5%)， 综合(+2.12%)，传媒(+1.98%)涨幅居前；国防军工(-0.5%)，煤炭(-0.33%)，钢铁(-0.13%)跌幅居前。 从市场强弱看，IM>IF>IC>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,836/199/1,376。沪深两市，机构、主力、大 户、散户全天资金分别净流入 46、-66、-38、57 亿元，分别变动+84、+20、-29、-76 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 220.02、173.97、72.57 与 45.63 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-20.81%、-17.6%、-10.82%与-9.77%，三年期历史分位数分别为 3% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall commodity futures market shows a complex trend, with different metals, industrial products, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and shipping sectors having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some metals are affected by macro - policies and geopolitical events, while agricultural products are influenced by factors such as weather, trade policies, and seasonal demand [1][5][7]. Summary by Category Basic Metals - **Copper**: Yesterday, copper prices fluctuated strongly. The global capital is loose, and the rise in gold and oil prices also boosts copper prices. The domestic back is still strong, indicating tightness in the near - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The 2507 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed down 0.17% at 20,075 yuan/ton. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is weakening. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 0.22% at 3,134 yuan/ton. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing. It shows a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation, and corresponding option strategies and short - selling operations are recommended [1]. - **Zinc**: The 2506 contract of zinc closed down 0.09% at 22,435 yuan/ton. There is a risk of mine shutdown, and the actual import volume may be lower than expected. Consumption is in the off - season, and zinc prices may fall [1]. - **Lead**: The 2506 contract of lead closed down 0.09% at 16,845 yuan/ton. Consumption is in the off - season, and lead prices are expected to fall in the short term and maintain range - bound in the medium term [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 2507 contract of industrial silicon hit a new low, closing at 7,940 yuan. The supply is strong and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate closed down 0.88% at 60,860 yuan/ton. The supply is in excess, and the demand growth is lower than expected. It is recommended to hold short positions or short on rebounds [2]. - **Polysilicon**: The PS2507 contract of polysilicon closed at 35,625 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, and relevant trading strategies are recommended [2]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fluctuated strongly. The global capital is loose, and the inventory is decreasing rapidly. It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,061 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The supply - demand of steel is balanced, but the macro - sentiment is deteriorating. It is recommended to close short positions and conduct relevant arbitrage operations [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 724.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan. The supply - demand is neutral to strong in the short term, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is recommended to close short positions and try long positions [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 844.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the futures are at a premium. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean rose overnight. The supply in South America is loose in the near - term, and the sowing of new US soybeans is going well. The domestic soybean is weak in the short term and will follow the international market in the medium term [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract of corn is running weakly. The annual supply - demand is tightening marginally, but the short - term spot sentiment may cool down. The futures price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [5]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5,851 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season. It is expected to rebound in the short term and be bearish in the future [6]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price rebounded, and the domestic cotton price also recovered. It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil market rose. The supply is in the seasonal increase period, and the demand is improving. It is in a weak seasonal stage with no major contradictions [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2507 contract of eggs rebounded, and the spot price was stable. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the cost provides support. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The futures price is expected to decline [6]. - **Apples**: The main apple contract closed at 7,784 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The new - season apple production may be affected by weather, and the market is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by the off - season and trade policies. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and be shorted on highs in the long term [7]. - **PVC**: The V09 contract of PVC closed at 4,937 yuan, down 0.3%. The supply is large, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [7]. - **PTA**: The PX supply is low, and the PTA supply is increasing. The polyester industry has a high load but low profits. It is recommended to take appropriate profit - taking on long - short spreads and be cautious about unilateral trading [7]. - **Glass**: The FG09 contract of glass closed at 1,018 yuan, up 0.2%. The supply is rigid, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,250 [7]. - **PP**: The main PP contract fluctuated slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be shorted on highs in the long term [8]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a medium level, and the inventory is decreasing. The polyester industry has a high load but low profits. The price is expected to be strong, but caution is needed for long positions [8]. - **Styrene**: The styrene market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and long - short spreads are recommended. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand may be boosted by trade policies [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The SA09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,277 yuan, down 0.4%. The supply is decreasing due to maintenance, and the demand from photovoltaic glass is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1,600 [8]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The main contract rose 1.32%. After the Geneva meeting, tariffs were reduced, and most shipowners announced a price increase on June 1. The demand in the US line has recovered, but the European line is still moderate. The short - term EC is expected to fluctuate strongly, and 8 - 10 long - short spreads are recommended, with caution for the 06 contract [9][10].

金融研究 2025年5月20日 星期二 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 19 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数上涨 0%，报收 3367.58 点；深成指 下跌 0.08%，报收 10171.09 点；创业板指下跌 0.33%，报收 2032.76 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0%， 报收 995.25 点。市场成交 11,189 亿元，较前日减少 52 亿元。行业板块方面，综合(+1.99%)，环保 (+1.87%)，房地产(+1.75%)涨幅居前；食品饮料(-0.9%)，汽车(-0.33%)，银行(-0.32%)跌幅居前。 从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,560/160/1,691。沪深两市，机构、主力、大 户、散户全天资金分别净流入-38、-86、-9、133 亿元，分别变动-102、-46、+57、+91 亿元。 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 203.34、168.99、73.95 与 43.29 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-18.95%、-16.78%、-10.84%与-9.09%，三年期历史分位数分别为 4%、3%、3 ...

基本金属 | | 招商评论 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。基本面：昨日在穆迪下调美国主权信用评级后，美元走弱明显，贵金属 | | | | | | 铜 | | 和铜得到支撑。供应端，铜矿紧张格局延续。换月后，现货紧张格局延续，华东华南平水铜现货升水 420 元 | | | | | | | | 和 220 元，back 结构依然偏强。周度国内库存增加 0.72 万吨。交易策略：以宽幅震荡思路对待。风险提示： | | | | | | | | 全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.20%，收于 20110 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 170 元/吨， | | | | | | | | LME 价格 2450 美元/吨。 | | | | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | | | 铝 | | | | | | | | | | 题有 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [1] - Report Issuer: China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. - Report Type: Financial Futures Morning Report Market Performance Stock Index Futures - On May 16, the four major A-share stock indexes pulled back. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4% to close at 3367.46 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.07% to close at 10179.6 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.19% to close at 2039.45 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.57% to close at 995.24 points. Market turnover was 1.1241 trillion yuan, a decrease of 66.3 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, automobiles (+1.91%), machinery and equipment (+0.83%), and composites (+0.77%) led the gains; beauty care (-1.31%), non-bank finance (-1.21%), and food and beverage (-1.06%) led the losses [2]. - From the perspective of market strength, IM > IC > IF > IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 3,000/225/2,186 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 6.4 billion, -4 billion, -6.6 billion, and 4.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +30.7 billion, +24.8 billion, -13.5 billion, and -42 billion yuan respectively [2]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 134.32, 114.05, 43.09, and 21.46 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were -22.13%, -19.95%, -11.08%, and -7.9% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 2%, 1%, 3%, and 13% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a relatively low level [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - On May 16, treasury bond futures fell across the board. The 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.02% to close at 102.38 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.06% to close at 105.72 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.05% to close at 108.48 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.1% to close at 118.91 points [3] Trading Strategies Stock Index Futures - The results of the tariff talks exceeded expectations, and the market risk appetite quickly recovered. In the future, the foreign trade situation and fiscal progress in the second quarter are crucial. Pay attention to the recovery of the foreign trade industry and the performance of the domestic demand sector [3]. - From four perspectives, the market is expected to stabilize. First, the RMB exchange rate has held the key level, and there is no need to worry about the drag of the exchange rate on the broader market index for the time being. Second, there are signs of capital inflows into popular industry indexes (such as embodied intelligence, AI, semiconductors, etc.), which may further promote the stabilization and recovery of small - cap indexes. Third, judging from the market performance after May Day in previous years, market trading volume will increase within 1 - 2 weeks, which may help the index start a new round of rise. Fourth, the valuation of the broader market index is at a relatively low level, while the fundamentals of the economic improvement remain stable. It is recommended to buy stock index futures on dips. In the short term, IC and IM have more elasticity, and in the medium and long term, IH and IF have more attractive valuations [3] Treasury Bond Futures - In the short term, the short - end liquidity is neutral. On the macro side, the results of the Sino - US tariff talks have eased more than expected. After the tariff issue is resolved, treasury bonds return to pricing based on economic fundamentals. In the short term, the treasury bond price has reached a high level and is expected to fluctuate. In the long term, the timing and intensity of fiscal/monetary policies will affect the trend of treasury bond futures prices. If the domestic economy improves further with policy support, the price of long - term treasury bonds may gradually cool down; otherwise, the long - term price may still remain in a high - level shock situation [4] Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities has declined this week [7] Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - The report provides detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts (IC, IF, IH, IM) and their corresponding spot indexes, including price, change, trading volume, turnover, open interest, daily increase in open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield [12] Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - The report provides detailed performance data of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, including price, change, trading volume, turnover, open interest, daily increase in open interest, CTD bond, yield change, net basis, quantile, and IRR. It also shows the short - term capital interest rate market changes [14][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3]. - Trade war impacts are gradually weakening, but uncertainties still exist, affecting market sentiment and price trends [1][4][5]. - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of supply - demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and investment strategies [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market showed Friday oscillations, with international gold priced in London nearly closing at $3200/ounce. Suggested to build long positions opportunistically due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: Recommended to short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Expected to trade in a range due to short - term risk preference decline, weak dollar, and tight spot market, despite inventory accumulation [2]. - **Aluminum**: Likely to maintain a sideways movement in the short term as downstream consumption weakens, and it's advised to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to be strong until an agreement is reached between mining companies and the Guinea government, and a light - position long strategy is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With weak fundamentals and limited downward momentum, it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggested to hold short positions or short on rebounds as the market is in a surplus and the bearish sentiment is strong [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to bottom - out and oscillate in the short term, and it's recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting the 07 contract later [3]. - **Tin**: Forecasted to trade in a range due to weak risk preference and a weak dollar [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations, and it's recommended to close short positions and consider certain arbitrage strategies [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it's advised to close short positions and try long positions on the 2509 contract [4]. - **Coking Coal**: It's recommended to wait and see as the market is in a relatively balanced state [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: U.S. soybeans are expected to be range - bound, and domestic soybeans are short - term weak and mid - term follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate as the spot market is weak and trade conditions ease [5]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term is expected to rebound while the long - term is bearish [6]. - **Cotton**: It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: In a seasonal weak phase, and later attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate as supply is high and demand is weak with cost support [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices are expected to decline as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but attention should be paid to fruit consumption and weather conditions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [8]. - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in a de - stocking state, and it's recommended to take profit on long - short spreads and be cautious with single - side trading [8]. - **Rubber**: Bearish sentiment is strong, and it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: Prices are expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - **PP**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [9]. - **MEG**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but long positions should be taken with caution due to high valuation [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Recommended as a short - side allocation due to high supply pressure and potential negative factors [9]. - **Styrene**: Expected to be strong in the short term, and a long - short spread strategy is recommended [10]. - **Soda Ash**: It's recommended to close short positions gradually and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize, waiting for non - aluminum downstream demand to recover [10]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The 06 contract should be chased with caution, and an 8 - 10 long - short spread strategy is recommended [11].

2025年05月16日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 【市场表现】 | | 金 | 隔夜贵金属价格反弹，以伦敦金计价的国际金价重回 3200 美元/盎司。 | | 属 | 【消息面】 | | | 鲍威尔表示美联储正在调整其货币政策框架，以应对 2020 年疫情后通胀和利率前景的重大变化；中东局势缓 | | | 和，伊朗称愿与美国达成协议。伊朗最高领袖顾问：伊朗愿承诺永不制造核武，换取美解除制裁。哈马斯官 | | | 员：若实现永久停火，可交出加沙地带控制权。 | | | 【经济数据方面】 | | | 美国 4 月 PPI 同比上涨 2.4%低于预期，环比-0.5%，降幅创下五年来最大。美国 4 月零售销售环比 0.1%小幅 | | | 超预期，消费者支出疲软显露端倪。。 | | | 【库存数据方面】 | | | 国内黄金 ETF 前一交易日继续流出，COMEX 黄金库存 1213 吨，与前一交易日相比减少 8 吨，上期所黄金 | | | 库存 15 吨，维持不变，伦敦 4 月黄金库存 8536 吨，小幅增加；上期所白银库存 914 吨 ...