Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall profit of chlor-alkali decreased last week due to the decline in the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda and the increase in the price of liquid chlorine. The current appearance of warehouse receipts in caustic soda futures and the continuous decline in spot prices are expected to strengthen the basis. The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US has little impact on caustic soda but a greater impact on its downstream industries, which, combined with the current weak spot price of liquid caustic soda, has a bearish impact on caustic soda futures [7]. Summary by Section Chlor-Alkali Overview - **Supply**: Last week, the production of liquid caustic soda was 794,800 tons, a slight increase from the previous week. The national load is expected to increase first and then decrease, with the weekly average load slightly increasing to about 85%, and the production this week is expected to reach 816,000 tons. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by Shandong alumina enterprises decreased by 94 yuan/ton to 2,438 yuan/ton. The production of viscose staple fiber last week was 81,100 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [7]. - **Demand**: The operating rate last week was 68.51%, remaining stable from the previous week. In February, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 319,000 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 27,000 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda was 474,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week. There was a reduction in the inventory of low-concentration caustic soda in Shandong, but an increase in the inventory of high-concentration caustic soda due to poor export order demand [7]. - **Profit**: Last week, the overall chlor-alkali profit decreased. The chlor-alkali profit in Shandong on Thursday was 557 yuan/ton [7]. - **Valuation**: The SH5 - 9 spread remained in the range of -168 to -96, the price of futures contract SH05 showed a downward trend, and the basis is expected to strengthen [7]. Chlor-Alkali Prices - **Spot Prices**: Included price trends of Shandong 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, liquid chlorine, etc., from 2022 to 2025 [11]. - **Flake Caustic Soda and Export Prices**: Showed price trends of Shandong and Inner Mongolia flake caustic soda, as well as FOB prices of 50% liquid caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in North China from 2021 to 2025 [14]. - **Futures Prices, Spreads, and Basis**: Presented the basis of 32% and 50% caustic soda main contracts in Shandong, SH05 - SH09 spread, and the price trend of the caustic soda main contract from 2023 to 2025 [17]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Prices**: Displayed price trends of Shandong sea salt, Indian industrial salt CIF, and Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price from 2021 to 2025 [20]. Caustic Soda Supply - **Production, Inventory, and Profit**: Showed the production of caustic soda, inventory of liquid caustic soda, and the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises from 2021 to 2025 [25]. - **Chlor-Alkali Plant Maintenance**: Listed the maintenance situations of chlor-alkali plants last week and the planned maintenance situations in the future [27]. Chlor-Alkali Demand - **Alumina**: Included the price, production, and profit trends of Shandong alumina from 2021 to 2025 [32]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: Showed the weekly production, factory inventory, and price of viscose staple fiber, as well as the operating rate of East China printing and dyeing from 2021 to 2025 [35]. - **Pulp and Paper**: Presented the production of paper products and the available inventory days of upstream factories from 2022 to 2025 [38]. - **Export**: Displayed the monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, cumulative export volume, and monthly export volume of caustic soda from 2021 to 2025 [41]. - **Epoxy Propane**: Included the price, profit, production, and operating rate trends of Shandong epoxy propane from 2021 to 2025 [44].

中泰期货尿素周报 2025年4月7日 ——尿素现货市场震荡下行 宏观市场利空打击短期情绪 姓名： 郭庆 从业资格号： F3049926 交易咨询证书号：Z0016007 联系电话： 15628875631 公司地址：济南市经七路86号证券大厦 客服电话：0531-86113507 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 主要内容 3 2 尿素及相关产品价格 尿素供应 1 综述 5 4 尿素需求 尿素库存 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 综述 | 产业链 | | 2025年3月27日-4 2025年4月3日-4月 | | 2025年4月10日-4 | 2025年4月17日-4 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 月2日 | 9日 | 月16日 | 月23日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量：万 吨 | 19.32 | 19.14 | 18.86 | 19.43 | 上周新增7家企业停车，停车企业恢复7家，本周预计3家 企业计划检修，3家停车企业恢复生产 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 4 月 7 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 2025/4/7 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势空头 | 農荡偏空 | 農汤 | 農荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 氧化铝 | 纯碱 | 鸡蛋 | 苹果 | | | 铝 | 玻璃 | 集运欧线 | 纸浆 | | | 橡胶 | 燃油 | 生猪 | 豆粕 | | | 原油 | 烧碱 | 白糖 | 二债 | | | | 沥青 | 橡胶 | 三十债 | | | | 尿素 | 液化石油气 | 十债 | | | | 标榴油 | | 五债 | | | | 塑料 | | | | | | ...

多空分歧较大，关注PDH装置开工率 中泰期货聚丙烯产业链周报 2025年4月7日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 聚丙烯基差价差 2 聚丙烯供需情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚丙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚丙烯综述 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | | 周环比 | | 下 周 | | 下下周 | | 综 | 述 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 国产量 | 73 . | 20 | 73 . | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the PVC industry, the overall production volume is expected to increase slightly this week due to the resumption of some maintenance devices, but the planned maintenance in the later period will increase, and the production volume of the ethylene - process may be less than expected. The export volume is expected to increase slightly. The apparent demand this week is less than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The profit of the chlor - alkali complex is oscillating weakly, and the export profit has improved slightly. The basis has strengthened oscillatingly, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration. The upstream is reluctant to cut production, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream start - up is increasing but the apparent demand is poor [6][9][10]. - For the caustic soda industry, the production volume has increased slightly this week, the export volume is relatively stable, the apparent demand is better than expected, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The price of caustic soda has weakened, the profit of the chlor - alkali complex has decreased, and the export profit has strengthened. The upstream is under pressure, the middle - stream traders are cautious, and the downstream demand is poor [97][100][101]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 PVC Market 3.1.1 Spot Market - PVC production: This week's total production is 46.75 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 12.10 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 34.65 million tons. Next week, the total production is expected to be 45.72 million tons, with ethylene - process production at 10.17 million tons and calcium - carbide process production at 35.54 million tons. The import volume is 1.50 million tons per week on average, and the export volume is 5.00 million tons per week on average, with a slight expected increase in exports [6]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 43.43 million tons, less than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be 45.63 million tons [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory this week is 90.74 million tons, with a decrease of 0.18 million tons. If calculated based on the current production volume and apparent demand, it is expected to decrease slightly next week [6]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of East China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 189 to - 169 this week, and the basis of South China calcium - carbide process has strengthened from - 39 to - 19. The 05 basis has strengthened oscillatingly [9]. - Spread: The 5 - 9 spread has decreased from - 135 to - 141, and the 5 - 9 spread can be considered for a short - position configuration [9]. 3.1.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The profit of calcium - carbide production in Shaanxi has decreased from - 254 to - 258, and in Inner Mongolia, it has decreased from 268 to 264. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 127 to - 235. The export profit has improved slightly, with the FOB Tianjin relative export profit increasing from 5 to 12, the theoretical export profit to India increasing from 287 to 297, and the theoretical export profit to Southeast Asia increasing from 167 to 207 [9]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Market 3.2.1 Spot Market - Caustic soda production: This week's total production is 79.48 million tons, with an increase of 0.17 million tons. Next week, it is expected to be 80.66 million tons, and the week after next, it is expected to be 81.40 million tons [97]. - Apparent demand: This week's apparent demand is 75.57 million tons, better than expected. Next week, it is estimated to be about 77.5 million tons [97]. - Inventory: The total inventory (in terms of 100% purity) this week is 26.11 million tons, with a decrease of 0.67 million tons, and it is expected to continue to decrease next week [97]. 3.2.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The 32% caustic soda basis for the 01 contract has decreased from 57 to 33, and the 05 contract basis has increased from 123 to 140. The 5 - 9 spread is recommended to be on the sidelines [100]. 3.2.3 Industry Chain Profit - Production profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong has decreased from - 235 to - 276, and the export profit has strengthened [100].

2025-04-07 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 目 录 C O N T E N T S 01 纯碱市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 纯碱市场价格 05 纯碱供应 06 纯碱需求 07 纯碱库存 08 仓单数量/有效预报 09 地产相关数据 01 玻璃市场综述 02 月度供需 03 基差价差 04 玻璃市场价格 05 玻璃供应 06 玻璃需求 07 玻璃库存 纯碱 玻璃 01 纯碱市场综述 目录 目 录 周度市场综述 | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期 (E) | 下下期 (E) | 思 路 | | | | 总产量（万吨） | 71.3 | 2.28 | 72.00 | 72.00 | 下周部分减产恢复提产，短期产量预增；部分厂家4、5月有检修计 | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | 38.91 | 2.01 | 39.29 | 39.29 | 划 ...

需求预期悲观，甲醇震荡走弱 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年4月7日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 中美互相加关税对商品需求影响较大，甲醇下游多数商品需求受到影响，预计对甲醇略微偏利空。我们 建议甲醇转入偏弱震荡思路对待，谨防价格走弱风险。 单边策略：建议转入偏弱震荡思路对待。 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 现货市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 近期甲醇港口库存和上游库存同步去库，但港口去库速度较慢。国产供应减量，春季检修开始兑现，伊 朗装置开始恢复，进口量预计会有所增加。 ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 4 月 3 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 晨会纪要 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/4/3 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 中证1000指数期货 | 铝 | 五债 | 苹果 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 氧化铝 | 纯碱 | 十债 | | | | | 中证500股指期货 | 沥青 | 二债 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 沪深300股指期货 | 燃油 | 三十债 | | | 客服电话： | | 上证50股指期货 | 玻璃 | 白糖 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 碳酸锂 | 焦炭 | 多晶硅 | | | | | 生猪 | 焦煤 | | | | 公司网址： | | 尿素 | 橡胶 | | | | www.ztqh.co ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The demand side has seen some improvement, and the fundamentals are basically stable. The futures market shows no obvious contradictions and is generally in a volatile market. However, as the delivery date approaches and the first round of warehouse receipt registration is due, attention should be paid to the influence of emotional capital. In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile under the current real - world contradictions. It is crucial to focus on the downstream start - up and port inventory levels. [17] Summary by Directory Part 1: Log Overview Supply - side - Foreign supply: In the week of March 28, 2025, the number of arriving ships was 17, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous week; the arrival volume was 33.43 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.52 million cubic meters. The import volume of coniferous logs was 181.71 million cubic meters, an increase of 16.71 million cubic meters compared to the previous month, but a 7% year - on - year decrease. The import volume of radiata pine was 126.00 million cubic meters, an increase of 17.00 million cubic meters compared to the previous month, with a 1% year - on - year increase. It is expected that the arrival volume in China will remain stable with a slight increase in March and April [7]. Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: The weekly shipment volume nationwide was 46.90 million cubic meters, an increase of 2.0 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The downstream apparent demand has recovered to a certain extent. Although the terminal real - estate start - up rate has decreased month - on - month, the demand remains stable in the short term. - Inventory: The inventory of radiata pine was 332.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 5.0 million cubic meters compared to the previous week; the inventory of spruce was 25 million cubic meters, a decrease of 8.8 million cubic meters. Overall, the inventory shows a slight accumulation trend due to the increase in arrivals and relatively weak downstream demand [9]. Price and Spread - Price: The FOB price of radiata pine decreased by 5 US dollars per cubic meter to 116 US dollars per cubic meter; the FOB price of spruce remained unchanged at 121 euros per cubic meter. The spot price of logs has started to decline weakly under the situation of strong supply and weak demand. The price of wood planks remained stable this week. - Spread: The spot spread is relatively stable. As of last Friday, the futures market was at a premium of 39 yuan per cubic meter to the 3.9m medium - grade A radiata pine (spot measurement) and at a discount of about 35 - 45 yuan per cubic meter to the 3.9m medium - grade A radiata pine (national standard measurement) [11][13]. Cost and Profit - Cost: The import cost of radiata pine was 1050 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 9 yuan per cubic meter compared to the previous week; the import cost of spruce was 1123 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 9 yuan per cubic meter. - Profit: The import profit of radiata pine was - 63 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 22 yuan per cubic meter compared to the previous week; the import profit of spruce was - 93 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 9 yuan per cubic meter. Overall, the profit of logs and wood planks is expected to show a weak trend [15]. Strategy Recommendation The market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. It is recommended to focus on the downstream start - up and port inventory [17]. Part 2: Log Balance Sheet The report provides a log balance sheet from August 23, 2024, to March 28, 2025, including data on arrivals, shipments, inventory, and supply - demand differences [19][20]. Part 3: Log Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - side - New Zealand log shipment volume: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Log import: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Import by tree species: No specific data presented in the provided content. Demand - side - Log daily shipment volume: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Real estate: No specific data presented in the provided content. Downstream Analysis - Wood plank analysis - Price: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Wood plank analysis - Profit: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Downstream substitutes - Aluminum alloy analysis: No specific data presented in the provided content. Inventory - side - Inventory - Summary: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Inventory - By tree species: No specific data presented in the provided content. - Inventory - By region: No specific data presented in the provided content. Part 4: Cost and Profit The import cost and profit of logs are analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Part 5: Log Price and Spread Analysis Log FOB Price The FOB prices of radiata pine and spruce are analyzed, and relevant price trends from 2024 to 2025 are presented [83][84][85][86][87][88]. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Prices The price seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Seasonality of Radiata Pine and Spruce Spreads The spread seasonality of radiata pine and spruce is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Basis between Radiata Pine and LG The basis between radiata pine and LG is analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content. Seasonal Chart and Inter - monthly Spread of LG Main Contracts The seasonal chart and inter - monthly spread of LG main contracts are analyzed, but no specific data is presented in the provided content.

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 4 月 2 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/4/2 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 氧化铝 | 集运欧线 | 玻璃 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 碳酸锂 | 硅铁 | 白糖 | | | | | 中证1000指数期货 | 锰硅 | 十债 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 上证50股指期货 | 燃油 | 三十债 | | | 客服电话： | | 沪深300股指期货 | 原油 | 二债 | | | 400-618-6767 | | 中证500股指期货 | 铝 | 五债 | | | | | 红枣 | 纯碱 | 多晶硅 | | | 公司网址： | 塑料 | | 沥青 | 苹果 | | | | 鸡蛋 | | 棉花 | | | | www.ztqh ...