Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariffs have little direct impact on methanol supply and demand but affect the demand for many downstream products, potentially influencing methanol demand later. Methanol's own supply - demand is weakening month - on - month due to the resumption of Iranian plants and expected increase in imports. Sino - US tariff hikes have a significant impact on commodity demand, with most downstream methanol products' demand affected, making the outlook for methanol slightly bearish. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation approach and guard against price decline risks [3][86]. - For the unilateral strategy, it is advised to shift to a weak - oscillation mindset [4][87]. - For the hedging strategy, it is recommended to wait and see [5][88]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Market - Methanol spot market prices fluctuated this week. Ports in East China continued to reduce inventory, and the intraday basis quotes fluctuated weakly. On Friday, the basis quote was around 05 + 90 yuan/ton, and the basis quote for April's forward paper was 05 + 75 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Basis and Spread - Methanol basis quotes fluctuated weakly this week. The basis quote for April's forward paper was around 05 + 90 yuan/ton [15]. - Methanol's coastal basis oscillated this week, and the inland basis also oscillated. The inland market prices and the prices in the northwest region oscillated this week [25][33]. - The spread between East China and inland regions of methanol oscillated weakly [43]. - The 5 - 9 spread started to show some reverse - arbitrage trends, mainly because imports began to increase and the port inventory reduction speed was a bit slow [53]. - The PP - 3MA spread oscillated this week. Consider reducing the long - PP and short - MA strategy and continue the operation after the callback [58]. 3. Industrial Chain Profit - Spring maintenance has started to take effect, and the methanol operating rate has declined. However, there are many restarts of methanol maintenance devices, and methanol production has begun to increase [65][68]. - The dimethyl ether operating rate oscillated strongly, the formaldehyde operating rate oscillated, and the methanol - to - olefins operating rate in the northwest region oscillated at a high level [75]. - This week, the operating rate of methanol - to - olefins devices oscillated. Attention should be paid to the startup situation of MTO devices [78]. 4. Market Outlook - Methanol supply - demand is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to adopt a weak - oscillation approach and guard against price decline risks. The unilateral strategy is to shift to a weak - oscillation mindset, and the hedging strategy is to wait and see [86][87][88].

Report Title - Zhongtai Futures Polypropylene Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated April 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The market has significant long - short divergence, and attention should be paid to the operating rate of PDH plants [1] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Main Contradictions - Not provided 2. Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation Supply - This week's domestic polypropylene production was 75.70 million tons, a slight increase from last week's 73.16 million tons. Next week, some plants are expected to resume production, and production is forecasted to reach 76.60 million tons, continuing to increase [6]. - This week's maintenance loss was 12.47 million tons, a decrease of 2.17 million tons from last week. Next week, there will be no maintenance loss [6]. - Weekly average imports and exports remained stable at 7.50 million tons for imports and 3.75 million tons for exports [6]. Demand - This week's apparent demand was 77.94 million tons, a marginal increase from last week's 77.93 million tons. Next week, seasonal demand is expected to be around 82 million tons [6]. Inventory - This week's total inventory was 86.35 million tons, an increase of 1.51 million tons from last week. The de - stocking speed was not ideal [6]. - Upstream inventory increased by 2.07 million tons to 63.71 million tons, mainly due to a significant increase in upstream inventory. Mid - stream inventory decreased by 0.56 million tons to 22.64 million tons [6]. Operating Rate - The overall upstream operating rate slightly increased, and with the resumption of many maintenance plants next week, the operating rate is expected to rise slightly [6]. 3. Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The basis generally showed a volatile and strengthening trend. If the upstream plant operating rate continues to decline, the basis may weaken [10]. Inter - month Spread - The 1 - 5 month spread was - 147 this week, a decrease of 107 from last week. The 5 - 9 month spread was 76 this week, an increase of 45 from last week. The spreads were volatile with no strong short - term drivers [10]. Variety Spread - The fiber -拉丝 spread decreased by 50 to 170 this week, and the copolymer -拉丝 spread decreased by 150 to 160. The pellet - powder spread in North China increased by 40 to 90, and in East China increased by 10 to 60 [10]. Disk Spread - The LL - PP spread weakened slightly this week and is expected to enter a weak and volatile state later [10]. 4. Summary and Outlook Upstream - Attention should be paid to the operating rate of PDH plants. After the propane tax increase, the profits of these plants have deteriorated rapidly, and there may be shutdowns [12]. Mid - stream - The mid - stream shipment situation is average, and spot transactions are mainly for rigid demand [12]. Downstream - The demand for plastic products exported to the US from downstream enterprises is expected to weaken significantly [12]. Strategies - Consider a small reduction in the long PP and short MA spread strategy, and continue to operate after a rebound. There is significant long - short divergence, so it is recommended to wait and see. Sell call options [12]

供需双弱，建议偏空配置 中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报 2025年4月14日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 近期市场主要矛盾 4 总结及展望 3 基差及价差 2 聚乙烯产业情况 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 聚乙烯市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 1、聚乙烯综述 | | | 上 | 周 | 本 | 周 | | 周环比 | 下 | 周 | | 下下周 | 综 述 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 量 | 国产量 | 62 . | 34 | 62 . | 47 | 0 . | 13 | 63 . ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report For the Soda Ash Market - Supply has returned to a high level, putting pressure on inventory. Although the rigid demand has improved recently, the trend of oversupply remains difficult to change. After the end - users replenish inventory from the middle - stream, the upstream faces pressure in order - taking. The price has dropped to a low - valuation range, and further downward space requires negative feedback from the real - world end. Attention should be paid to the new order transaction price and the operation of the supply side. A short - selling strategy can be based on the realization of low valuation or continued high production and unstable spot prices [8][9]. For the Glass Market - The low - supply level is maintained. Pay attention to the subsequent changes in production lines. The low - price spot and futures supplies and the expansion of delivery warehouses suppress the sentiment of near - month contracts. Wait for the digestion of the weak demand narrative atmosphere and the restoration of the confidence of upstream manufacturers. A long - buying strategy for far - month contracts at low prices is recommended [166][168]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Market 3.1 Market Overview - Supply: The total weekly output is 73.77 million tons, with heavy - quality output at 40.39 million tons and light - quality output at 33.38 million tons. The import is 0.12 million tons, and the export is 4.2 million tons. The supply level has returned to a high level, and some manufacturers have maintenance plans in April and May, but the involved production capacity is relatively small. - Demand: The rigid demand has improved recently. The daily melting volume of float glass remains stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass has increased. The consumption of heavy - quality soda ash is 34.30 million tons, and the apparent demand for light - quality soda ash is 29.74 million tons. - Inventory: The alkali plant inventory is 169.30 million tons, and the social inventory is 40.27 million tons. The inventory is under pressure due to the high - level supply [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - Production: The monthly production shows seasonal fluctuations. - Import and Export: The current import is 0.55 million tons, and the export is 15.14 million tons. The import dependence is 0.00%. Compared with the previous month and the same period last year, there are significant changes in import and export volume and price [15][16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Futures - Spot Price Comparison: The futures price index and the spot price of soda ash in different regions show certain trends over the years. - Contract Basis: The basis of different soda ash contracts (01, 05, 09) shows different fluctuations. - Inter - Contract Spread: The spreads between different soda ash contracts (09 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) also show different trends. - Glass - Soda Ash Spread: The spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot prices show different trends [24][29][37]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - Regional Prices: The prices of heavy - quality and light - quality soda ash in different regions such as Shahe, North China, and East China show different trends and price levels. - Price Differences: The price differences between heavy - quality and light - quality soda ash in different regions also show different trends [45][49][69]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - Shutdown and Startup: Some manufacturers are currently under maintenance or reducing production, and some have planned maintenance in the future. - Operating Rate: The current domestic operating rate of soda ash is 88.05%, showing an upward trend compared with the previous week and the same period last year. - Production of Heavy - and Light - Quality Soda Ash: The weekly production of heavy - quality and light - quality soda ash shows an upward trend. - Cost and Profit: The costs of ammonia - soda method and combined - soda method remain stable, and the profits also show certain trends [85][86][96]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - Demand for Heavy - Quality Soda Ash: The demand for heavy - quality soda ash is mainly affected by the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass, showing an upward trend. - Weekly Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio: The weekly apparent consumption and production - sales ratio of soda ash show certain trends [131][137]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - Overall Inventory: The current inventory of soda ash enterprises is 169.3 million tons, showing an upward trend compared with the same period last year. - Regional Inventory: The inventory in different regions such as North China, Central China, and East China shows different trends [146][154]. Glass Market 3.1 Market Overview - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 158,475 t/d, and the weekly output is 1.1093 million tons, remaining stable. - Demand: The apparent consumption is 1.1370 million tons, showing a slight decline. The terminal demand is expected to recover seasonally. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 3.2602 million tons, showing a downward trend, but the decline rate has narrowed, and there are regional differences. - Cost and Profit: The costs of natural gas, coal - gas, and petroleum - coke production lines remain stable, and the profits show certain trends [166]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - Production: The monthly production of flat glass shows seasonal fluctuations. - Import and Export: The import and export volume of float glass shows certain trends [173][174]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Futures - Spot Price Comparison: The futures price index and the spot price of glass in different regions show certain trends over the years. - Contract Basis: The basis of different glass contracts (01, 05, 09) shows different fluctuations. - Inter - Contract Spread: The spreads between different glass contracts (09 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) also show different trends. - Glass - Soda Ash Spread: The spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot prices show different trends [182][187][197]. 3.4 Glass Market Price - Regional Prices: The prices of float glass in different regions such as Shahe, North China, and East China show different trends and price levels. - Different Specifications: The prices of 5mm large - and small - plate float glass in different regions also show different trends [206][208]. 3.5 Glass Supply No relevant detailed content provided.

交易咨询资格号： 晨会纪要 2025 年 4 月 11 日 | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | lox | 护铅 | 菜粕 | | 螺纹钢 | 护锌 | 玉米淀粉 | | 白糖 | 热轧卷板 | 玉米 | | 鸡蛋 | PVC | 글 二 | | 菜油 | 郑棉 | 沪铝 | | 沥青 | 护铜 | 焦煤 | | 沪银 | 橡胶 | 夏海 | | | 甲醇 | | | | 焦炭 | | | | PTA | | | | 沪金 | | | | 塑料 | | | | 沪锡 | | | | 棕櫚油 | | | | 锰硅 | | | | 铁矿石 | | | | 聚丙烯 | | | | 豆粕 Idili | | 证监许可[2012]112 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings 1.1 Based on Fundamental Judgments - **Trend Short**: Rubber [7] - **Oscillating Short**: Cotton, sugar, cotton yarn, standard fuel oil, live pigs, pulp, logs, red dates, methanol [7] - **Oscillating Long**: Alumina, ten - year treasury bonds, two - year treasury bonds, five - year treasury bonds, apples [7] - **Trend Long**: None explicitly mentioned 1.2 Another Set of Ratings - **Short**: Sugar, soybean meal, manganese silicon, silver, plastic, eggs [9] - **Neutral**: Zheng cotton, hot - rolled coil, Shanghai lead, Shanghai zinc [9] - **Long**: Coking coal, rapeseed meal, methanol, aluminum, corn starch, corn [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US tariff conflict has a continuous impact on the futures market, but its marginal impact on the market has weakened. The market is entering a stage of macro - policy hedging and macro - data testing [11]. - Different futures varieties are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, tariff policies, and seasonal factors, showing different trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Related Categories 3.1 Macro Information - The State Council Tariff Commission raised the additional tariff rate on US - originated imported goods from 34% to 84 [11]. - The US government will suspend reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries for 90 days, and traders have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts [11]. - The EU voted to impose a 25% tariff on US - imported products in retaliation [11]. - The retail sales of the passenger car market in March reached 1.94 million vehicles, with a year - on - year increase of 14.4% and a month - on - month increase of 40.2% [11]. 3.2 Futures Market Analysis 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The Sino - US tariff conflict has a weakened marginal impact on the market. The market is in a stage of macro - policy hedging and macro - data testing. It is recommended to wait and see or consider option strategies [11]. 3.2.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The marginal impact of the Sino - US tariff conflict on the market has weakened. It is advisable to consider simple and effective unilateral strategies and steepening the yield curve [12]. 3.2.3 Container Shipping to Europe - The freight volume in April is gradually recovering, but the new booking demand is limited. The supply - demand structure may turn loose in the medium term, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [12]. 3.2.4 Cotton - The domestic cotton price is under pressure due to concerns about future demand caused by tariffs, poor upstream and downstream demand, and high inventory. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of US tariff policies on demand and supply changes [12][13]. 3.2.5 Sugar - The sugar price is affected by the demand concerns caused by US tariffs. In the long term, the possible shift from shortage to surplus in the global sugar market may suppress the price. The current domestic sugar price is oscillating and relatively resistant to decline [14]. 3.2.6 Oilseeds and Oils - **Palm Oil**: Affected by the weak international crude oil price and the expected increase in production, it is under pressure [15]. - **Soybean Meal**: The bullish sentiment caused by tariffs has weakened. The large arrival of soybeans in the second quarter may put pressure on the basis, but the tariff policy still has a certain impact on the sentiment [15]. - **Eggs**: The short - term downward momentum of the egg spot price has weakened. The feed price increase expectation has a certain supporting effect, but the medium - term supply - demand remains loose. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to short at high prices [15]. 3.2.7 Apples - The spot price is firm, the inventory is low, and the sales are expected to continue to improve. It is recommended to go long at low prices with a light position [15]. 3.2.8 Red Dates - The supply - demand structure lacks support, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. 3.2.9 Live Pigs - The theoretical supply pressure continues to be realized, and the consumption is still in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for opportunities to short at high prices in the medium term [16]. 3.2.10 Crude Oil - The market sentiment has eased due to the US's suspension of tariff increases on some countries. In the long term, the supply increase and the global economic slowdown may put pressure on the price, but there may be a rebound in the short term [16]. 3.2.11 Fuel Oil - It is expected to follow the oil price to oscillate. The impact of the trade war on the demand for import - export shipping is significant [16]. 3.2.12 Plastics - L is recommended to be short - configured, and PP can be long - configured [18]. 3.2.13 Rubber - Affected by tariffs and trade frictions, the price has fallen, but it may stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to consider buying out - of - the - money call options or setting a stop - loss for short - term long positions [18]. 3.2.14 Methanol - The demand is expected to weaken due to the Sino - US tariff increase, and the supply is gradually increasing. It is recommended to have a short - biased view [18]. 3.2.15 Soda Ash and Glass - The prices of soda ash and glass are affected by the tariff policy and the market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash for arbitrage [19]. 3.2.16 Asphalt - The price is affected by the US's tariff deferral. It is expected to be in the range of 3200 - 3300 yuan in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the market's interpretation of the trade war [19]. 3.2.17 Paper Pulp - The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The increase in tariffs on US imports may lead to a shortage of coniferous pulp supply in the medium term. It is necessary to pay attention to the arrival and inventory rhythm in April [20]. 3.2.18 Logs - The demand has improved, and the fundamentals have basically stabilized. It is expected to be in an oscillating market in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the downstream start - up and port inventory [20]. 3.2.19 Urea - The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term after the decline, and the futures price has a strong rebound power. It is recommended to turn to a long - biased view when the downstream purchasing period or the overall commodity market improves [22]. 3.2.20 Synthetic Rubber - It may stop falling and rebound due to the US tariff policy. It is recommended to consider buying out - of - the - money call options or setting a stop - loss for short - term long positions [23]. 3.2.21 Aluminum and Alumina - **Aluminum**: The trade war has an impact, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom. It is recommended to short at high prices [24]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [24]. 3.2.22 Steel and Iron Ore - The prices of steel and iron ore are affected by tariffs, and the short - term trend is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [25][26]. 3.2.23 Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke prices are under pressure due to the tariff policy. Without large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports, the prices are expected to be weak in the short term [27]. 3.2.24 Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: It is recommended to go long at low prices during the day, paying attention to the hedging pressure above [28]. - **Manganese Silicon**: It is recommended to short at high prices [28].

交易咨询资格号： 2025 年 4 月 9 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | 偏空 | 農荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 护锡 | 塑料 | 锰硅 | | 【— | 更新 | 玉米淀粉 | | 鸡蛋 | 热轧卷板 | 菜粕 | | 豆粕 | 글 = | 玉米 | | 沥青 | 沪铜 | 护铝 | | 焦炭 | 郑棉 | 焦煤 | | 橡胶 | 沪锌 | 护铅 | | | 螺纹钢 | | | | 甲醇 | | | | 沪银 | | | | 护金 | | | | РУС | | | | 玻璃 | | | | 铁矿石 | | | | 棕榈油 | | | | 白糖 | | | | PTA | | | | 票据 | | | | 聚丙烯 | | 证监许可[2012]11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market is affected by tariff conflicts, with high uncertainty. The global recession model remains the baseline expectation. The weakening of equity expectations is the main short - term logic, and there are many uncertainties in the medium - term. It is recommended to be cautious, considering short - selling or hedging [4][5]. - For the bond market, the trading logic has shifted from concerns about the capital side to the fundamentals. With the high uncertainty of tariff conflicts, monetary easing may be on the way. It is recommended to consider simple and effective unilateral strategies and also consider steepening the yield curve [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - A - shares adjusted on Monday due to overseas tariff shocks. Central Huijin, China Chengtong, and China Guoxin increased their holdings of ETFs and stocks to maintain the stability of the capital market. China has sufficient room for policy adjustment in monetary and fiscal policies and will take measures to boost domestic consumption and stabilize the capital market. China Guoxin's subsidiary will increase its holdings of stocks and ETFs with an initial amount of 80 billion yuan [4]. - The land markets in hot cities are hot, and the real estate trading volume in first - tier and core second - tier cities continues to recover. The "Silver April" is an important node for the property market [4]. - The White House denied the news of a 90 - day tariff suspension. The EU proposed to impose a 25% tariff on a series of US imports starting from May 16 and removed US bourbon whiskey from the counter - tariff list [4]. - The Fed held a closed - door meeting to review and determine interest rates. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession in the next 12 months to 45% and lowered the GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 to 0.5% [4]. - Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China if China does not withdraw the 34% tariff retaliation by April 8 [4]. - Eurozone's February retail sales increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the April Sentix investor confidence index was - 19.5 [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market declined significantly due to tariff conflicts. The uncertainty of tariff conflicts remains, and the global recession model is the baseline expectation. It is recommended to consider short - selling or hedging, being cautious [4][5]. Treasury Bond Futures - The recession expectation pushed the bond market to open higher, but capital net withdrawal and exchange - rate depreciation pressure restricted the bond market. The trading logic has shifted to the fundamentals, and monetary easing may be coming. It is recommended to consider simple unilateral strategies and steepening the yield curve [6]. Container Shipping on European Routes - If the tariff policy is implemented, the shipping volume on the US routes will face pressure, and the overflow of capacity to European routes may suppress freight rates. In the short - term, the improvement of supply - demand is difficult to achieve, and the market's expectation of the peak season may be restricted. It is recommended to do an EC2506/EC2510 reverse spread [7]. Cotton - The price of US cotton was affected by Trump's "reciprocal tariff" order. The domestic cotton price is expected to be weak due to concerns about external demand, high inventory, and the contradiction between domestic demand expansion and weak external demand [8]. Sugar - The sugar price was under pressure due to the US tariff policy and higher - than - expected domestic production. In the future, factors such as India's production cut, Brazil's new harvest season, and Thailand's production increase will affect the price. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate and be resistant to decline [8][9][10]. Oilseeds and Oils - Palm oil may face a decline in the far - month contracts due to the drop in international crude oil prices and the weakening of the driving force for the rise in domestic oils. The price of soybean meal rose due to China's tariff on US imports. In the short - term, it may be strong, but there is also hedging pressure. It is recommended to go long on the far - month soybean meal contracts [10][11]. Eggs - The egg futures rebounded due to factors such as faster spot sales and feed price increase expectations but then fell back due to the overall loose supply - demand situation. In the future, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand has unfavorable factors. Feed price increase may support the far - month contracts and strengthen the pattern of near - weak and far - strong. It is recommended to short - sell on the 05 - 07 rebound and consider a short - 7 long - 9 reverse spread [11][12][13]. Apples - The apple price was supported by factors such as strong spot prices, fast inventory clearance, and high delivery costs. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [14]. Red Dates - The red date market was less affected by the external environment due to its self - sufficient nature. With the increase in seasonal fresh fruits, the demand for red dates decreased, and the inventory was high. It is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to roll - over risks [14]. Pigs - The pig price rebounded due to the reduction in supply by leading enterprises. In the future, the supply pressure will continue to be realized, and the consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [15]. Crude Oil - The international oil price fell due to the US tariff policy. In the long - term, the supply will increase, and the demand is weak. The oil price is in a panic - selling stage, and there is no sign of stabilization [15][16]. Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price was affected by the trade war. The impact on import - export shipping demand is significant, and the price has not bottomed out, depending on the market's interpretation of the trade war [17][18]. Plastics - In the long - term, tariffs will suppress export demand. In the short - term, factors such as reduced imports and potential production cuts in PP may have a greater impact. It is recommended to be bearish on L and wait and see for PP [19]. Methanol - The demand for methanol is expected to weaken due to the US - China tariff war and the increase in import supply. The market has different views on methanol pricing. It is recommended to have a bearish view [20]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong declined. The Trump tariff policy has a negative impact on the demand for caustic soda. It is recommended to have a bearish view on caustic soda futures [20][21]. Soda Ash and Glass - The price of soda ash opened low and rebounded. The supply is at a high level, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The glass price opened low and then strengthened, with good short - term sales and inventory reduction. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a long - glass and short - soda - ash spread [22][23]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The LPG price was affected by the counter - tariff and the drop in crude oil prices. The import cost has increased, and the demand is affected by the global recession expectation. The price increase is restricted [23]. Pulp - The pulp price fell due to the macro - economic situation. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. In the medium - term, the supply of coniferous pulp may be tight due to the tariff on US imports [23]. Logs - The log market is in a stable and oscillating state. The demand has improved, and the inventory is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US trade friction [23]. Urea - The spot price of urea is weak, and the futures price has no obvious upward momentum in the short - term. There is a demand for bargain - hunting in the future. It is recommended to change from a bearish to a bullish view when the market improves [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market was affected by the macro - environment and stopped trading at the daily limit. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. Aluminum and Alumina - The price of aluminum was affected by the Trump tariff, with a short - term emotional impact. It is recommended to go short on rallies. The alumina market has an oversupply problem, and it is also recommended to go short on rallies in the short - term [25][26]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price was affected by the US tariff policy. The direct impact on the lithium salt end is limited, and the demand on the finished - product end may be restricted. The short - term price is mainly affected by its own supply - demand [27][28]. Steel and Iron Ore - The prices of steel and iron ore declined due to the US tariff policy. The current price decline may have reflected the negative impact, and it is difficult to rebound significantly in the short - term. The supply - demand is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [29][30]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke were weak due to the tariff policy. The production enthusiasm of coking coal mines is affected, but large - scale production cuts are unlikely in the short - term. The demand may improve, but it needs to be observed. It is recommended not to go long until there are signs of large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [31]. Ferroalloys - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese opened lower and then rebounded. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the cost is under downward pressure. It is recommended to go short on rallies [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Near the main contract roll - over node, be vigilant about large - scale fluctuations in soda ash and glass prices [1] - Soda ash supply has recovered, and the inventory accumulation rate has increased. Glass production and sales are okay, but terminal demand is poor, and market sentiment is cautious [4][57] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soda Ash Price - On April 3, 2025, the 2504, 2505, and 2509 futures contracts of soda ash were priced at 1389, 1381, and 1420 respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 1, - 12, and - 19. The spot prices of heavy soda ash in different regions also showed some fluctuations [6] - The main contract basis was - 10 [6] Supply - The overall capacity utilization rate increased from 82.38% to 85.09%. The weekly output increased from 69.02 million tons to 71.30 million tons, a rise of 3.30%. The heavy - soda production increased by 5.45%, and the light - soda production increased by 0.84% [7] - Many enterprises had device maintenance. For example, Shandong Haitian started maintenance on October 21, 2024, and the end time was undetermined [25] Demand - The daily output of float glass increased slightly by 0.13%, and the daily output of photovoltaic glass increased by 1.75%. The apparent demand for light - soda decreased by 4.33% [7] Inventory - The total inventory of soda ash increased by 4.38% to 170.14 million tons. The heavy - soda inventory increased by 7.54%, and the light - soda inventory increased by 1.42%. The social inventory decreased by 2.81% [7] Profit - The profit of the dual - alkali method decreased by 13.00% to 184.1, and the profit of the ammonia - alkali method decreased by 95.00% to - 101.81 [7] Glass Price - On April 3, 2025, the 2504, 2505, and 2509 futures contracts of glass were priced at 1198, 1198, and 1226 respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 8, 1, and - 24. The main contract basis was - 38 [55] Supply - The capacity utilization rate was 75.42%, with a slight decrease of 0.2429. The daily output increased from 15.83 million tons to 15.85 million tons, and the weekly output increased from 110.83 million tons to 110.88 million tons [56] Demand - The apparent demand remained unchanged. Due to some regional sentiment, policy superposition, and price advantages of some enterprises, the downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, and the sales of some enterprises improved [56] Inventory - The total inventory decreased by 2% to 6575.7 million heavy boxes, and the inventory of Shahe traders decreased by 9% to 420 million heavy boxes [56] Profit - The profit of natural - gas production increased by 4%, the profit of coal - gas production increased by 14%, and the profit of petroleum - coke production increased by - 123% [56] Potential Factors Soda Ash - Potential positive factors: Macroeconomic policies and commodity market sentiment boost, unexpected device maintenance or load reduction, and energy - consumption policies [8] - Potential negative factors: Significant inventory accumulation in soda - ash plants, unexpected cold - repair of float and photovoltaic glass, and new production devices coming into operation [8] Glass - Potential positive factors: Macroeconomic policies boost the commodity market sentiment, and demand shows seasonal improvement [57] - Potential negative factors: The demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" period falls short of expectations [57] Market Outlook Soda Ash - The supply is expected to increase steadily, which will put some pressure on prices. The soda - ash plants will face the pressure of high - level inventory accumulation [7][8] Glass - The supply will remain stable, and the downstream will enter the digestion stage after this round of replenishment. The sustainability of mid - stream inventory replenishment needs further tracking [57]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall profit of chlor-alkali decreased last week due to the decline in the price of Shandong liquid caustic soda and the increase in the price of liquid chlorine. The current appearance of warehouse receipts in caustic soda futures and the continuous decline in spot prices are expected to strengthen the basis. The mutual imposition of tariffs between China and the US has little impact on caustic soda but a greater impact on its downstream industries, which, combined with the current weak spot price of liquid caustic soda, has a bearish impact on caustic soda futures [7]. Summary by Section Chlor-Alkali Overview - **Supply**: Last week, the production of liquid caustic soda was 794,800 tons, a slight increase from the previous week. The national load is expected to increase first and then decrease, with the weekly average load slightly increasing to about 85%, and the production this week is expected to reach 816,000 tons. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by Shandong alumina enterprises decreased by 94 yuan/ton to 2,438 yuan/ton. The production of viscose staple fiber last week was 81,100 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week [7]. - **Demand**: The operating rate last week was 68.51%, remaining stable from the previous week. In February, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 319,000 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 27,000 tons [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda was 474,000 tons, a slight decrease from the previous week. There was a reduction in the inventory of low-concentration caustic soda in Shandong, but an increase in the inventory of high-concentration caustic soda due to poor export order demand [7]. - **Profit**: Last week, the overall chlor-alkali profit decreased. The chlor-alkali profit in Shandong on Thursday was 557 yuan/ton [7]. - **Valuation**: The SH5 - 9 spread remained in the range of -168 to -96, the price of futures contract SH05 showed a downward trend, and the basis is expected to strengthen [7]. Chlor-Alkali Prices - **Spot Prices**: Included price trends of Shandong 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, liquid chlorine, etc., from 2022 to 2025 [11]. - **Flake Caustic Soda and Export Prices**: Showed price trends of Shandong and Inner Mongolia flake caustic soda, as well as FOB prices of 50% liquid caustic soda and 99% flake caustic soda in North China from 2021 to 2025 [14]. - **Futures Prices, Spreads, and Basis**: Presented the basis of 32% and 50% caustic soda main contracts in Shandong, SH05 - SH09 spread, and the price trend of the caustic soda main contract from 2023 to 2025 [17]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Prices**: Displayed price trends of Shandong sea salt, Indian industrial salt CIF, and Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price from 2021 to 2025 [20]. Caustic Soda Supply - **Production, Inventory, and Profit**: Showed the production of caustic soda, inventory of liquid caustic soda, and the profit of Shandong chlor-alkali enterprises from 2021 to 2025 [25]. - **Chlor-Alkali Plant Maintenance**: Listed the maintenance situations of chlor-alkali plants last week and the planned maintenance situations in the future [27]. Chlor-Alkali Demand - **Alumina**: Included the price, production, and profit trends of Shandong alumina from 2021 to 2025 [32]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber and Printing and Dyeing**: Showed the weekly production, factory inventory, and price of viscose staple fiber, as well as the operating rate of East China printing and dyeing from 2021 to 2025 [35]. - **Pulp and Paper**: Presented the production of paper products and the available inventory days of upstream factories from 2022 to 2025 [38]. - **Export**: Displayed the monthly export volume of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, cumulative export volume, and monthly export volume of caustic soda from 2021 to 2025 [41]. - **Epoxy Propane**: Included the price, profit, production, and operating rate trends of Shandong epoxy propane from 2021 to 2025 [44].