最新动态及原因 2025年12月15日，铂、把价格均出现大涨，截至14:30，拍主力合约上涨7.0%至482.4元/克，把主力合约上涨5.82%至411.8元/克。其主要原因在于，其一、市场进一步交易美联储融的立 受损所带来的未来降息空间的打开；真二，现货市场供需再度收紧。进入12月后，临近新任美联储主席提名，市场逐渐加强对美联储独立出风险的交易。根据央视财经、当地时间12日，持朗普 表示凯文·沃什已成为下一任美联储主席的头号候选人，并称在降息问题上与自己观点一致，他希望联邦基金利率一年后被降至"1%亮至更低"，以帮助财政部降低美国国贡的高额融资成本。 凯文 法什获得提名的概率大幅提升，截至12月15日，根据Polymarket，凯文·哈塞特被提名的概率降为52%，凯文·沃什被提名的概率上升至40%，我们认为，无论是哪位获得提名，在上任初期他都 将探持帰向部派的政策倾向，加之美国非农数据即将公布，市场认为数据或表现弱势，从而抬升降息预期，贵金属价格获得向上驱动。此外，近期铂金现货市场再度趋于紧张，藏至12月12日， 铂金1个月租赁利率上升至14.12%。双重因素共振下,今日铂把价格出现大涨。 三期货有限公司 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina market has a weak fundamental situation with high supply, rising inventory, and weak cost support. Although the price has rebounded recently, the upward pressure on the market remains significant. Traders are advised to adjust their strategies according to market changes [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Policy Trends - On December 12, the head of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council studied the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference. The conference emphasized that central enterprises should focus on promoting new - quality productivity, strengthen technological innovation, promote industrial upgrading, and avoid "involution - style" competition [2] 3.2 Fundamental Situation - Recently, the market fundamentals have been weak, with futures and spot prices falling. After the call against involution, most low - priced varieties rebounded rapidly on Friday night, with the main alumina contract rebounding by over 4% by the morning [3] - The fundamental contradictions lie in high supply, rising inventory, and weak cost support. Supply has limited reduction due to short - term factors; inventory is rising as demand growth is limited; cost has not formed good support as raw material prices are weak [3] 3.3 Summary and Strategy - Fundamentally, the market is in a loss situation, with high upstream operating capacity and a strong inventory accumulation trend. The spot price is under pressure, but the near - month warehouse receipts are expected to decline [4] - During the previous decline period, strategies such as short - selling at high prices, monthly reverse arbitrage, and selling put options performed well. Currently, traders are advised to shorten the trading period, adjust positions, and convert some short positions to selling call options. If there are significant marginal changes, trading opportunities such as call options and monthly positive arbitrage should be considered [4]

中 信 期 货 有 限 公 司 陆地及浮仓库存快速攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 Futures Company Limited 研究员: 李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月14日当周，全球原油陆上及浮仓库存均快速攀升，创今年以来最高，同时为近5年同期最高。陆地库存分区域看，中国主营炼厂处开工率 低点,原油库存连续第3周回升,欧洲库存小幅反弹,印度、俄罗斯、中东库存下降。 风险提示: Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 I ZUUUU 3400000 90000 60000 3300000 第5周 第1周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 资料来源： Kpler 中信期货研究所 图表 3: 全球陆地+浮仓原油库存 2022 - - 2023 2021 2025 2024 千桶 4100000 4000000 3900000 3 ...

2025年12月15日，铂、把价格均出现大涨，截至14:30，拍主力合约上涨7.0%至482.4元/克，把主力合约上涨5.82%至411.8元/克。其主要原因在于，其一、市场进一步交易美联储融的立 受损所带来的未来降息空间的打开；真二，现货市场供需再度收紧。进入12月后，临近新任美联储主席提名，市场逐渐加强对美联储独立出风险的交易。根据央视财经、当地时间12日，持朗普 表示凯文·沃什已成为下一任美联储主席的头号候选人，并称在降息问题上与自己观点一致，他希望联邦基金利率一年后被降至"1%亮至更低"，以帮助财政部降低美国国贡的高额融资成本。 凯文 法什获得提名的概率大幅提升，截至12月15日，根据Polymarket，凯文·哈塞特被提名的概率降为52%，凯文·沃什被提名的概率上升至40%，我们认为，无论是哪位获得提名，在上任初期他都 将探持帰向部派的政策倾向，加之美国非农数据即将公布，市场认为数据或表现弱势，从而抬升降息预期，贵金属价格获得向上驱动。此外，近期铂金现货市场再度趋于紧张，藏至12月12日， 铂金1个月租赁利率上升至14.12%。双重因素共振下,今日铂把价格出现大涨。 基本面情况 三期货有限公司 Co ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 50th week of 2025, including new special bonds, new general bonds, local bonds, and national bonds, and provides data on issuance, net financing, and progress [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog New Special Bond Issuance - This week, new special bond issuance was 50.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 11 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 103.3% [1]. - Next week, the planned issuance is 29.3 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 89.1 billion yuan [1]. New General Bond Issuance - This week, new general bond issuance was 21 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.6 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 95.5% [1]. - Next week, the planned issuance is 6 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 32.4 billion yuan [1]. Local Bond Net Financing - This week, the local bond net financing scale was 62.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 1.8 billion yuan [1]. - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new local bonds was 102.1% [1]. - Next week, the planned net financing is 28.1 billion yuan [3]. National Bond Net Financing - As of December 14, the national bond net financing progress was 96.2% [6]. - This week, the national bond net financing scale was 238.1 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 271.9 billion yuan [14]. - Next week, the planned net financing is - 147.3 billion yuan [14]. Government Bond Net Financing - This week, the government bond net financing was 300.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 273.6 billion yuan [9]. - Next week, the planned net financing is - 119.2 billion yuan [9]. - As of December 14, the progress of national bond net financing plus new local bond issuance was 98.8% [9].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report tracks the issuance of government bonds in the 50th week of 2025, presenting the issuance, progress, and planned issuance of various types of bonds [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories 3.1 New Special Bonds - This week, new special bond issuance was 50.1 billion yuan, a 11 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new special bonds was 103.3% [1] - Next week, the planned issuance is 29.3 billion yuan [1] - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new special bonds in December was 89.1 billion yuan [1] 3.2 New General Bonds - This week, new general bond issuance was 21 billion yuan, a 9.6 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new general bonds was 95.5% [1] - Next week, the planned issuance is 6 billion yuan [1] - As of December 14, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds in December was 32.4 billion yuan [1] 3.3 Local Government Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of local government bonds was 62.3 billion yuan, a 1.8 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [1] - As of December 14, the issuance progress of new local government bonds was 102.1% [1] - Next week, the planned net financing is 28.1 billion yuan [3] 3.4 Treasury Bonds - This week, the net financing scale of treasury bonds was 238.1 billion yuan, a 271.9 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [14] - As of December 14, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 96.2% [6] - Next week, the planned net financing is - 147.3 billion yuan [14] 3.5 Government Bonds - This week, the net financing of government bonds was 300.3 billion yuan, a 273.6 - billion - yuan increase from the previous week [9] - As of December 14, the combined progress of treasury bond net financing and new local government bond issuance was 98.8% [9] - Next week, the planned net financing is - 119.2 billion yuan [9]

下游存降负预期,内盘高估值松动 风险因素:极端天气;地缘局势;炼厂意外停车。 中信期货研究所 能源化工团队 量新动态 2025年12月12日,LPG主力合约下跌超3%。 下跌原因 近期LPG基差较往年同期持续偏低，内外盘价差偏高，PDH盘面利润不断下挫，12月11日新增仓单865手，叠加市场对PDH降负预期增强，盘面大幅下挫, 基本面情况 海外方面，伴生气高供应格局延续，美国C3年存持续高位，但11月以来印度为代表的海外旺季需求略超预期，海外价格稳中偏强运行。国内供应偏紧前期主要体现在主营炼厂检修带来的LPG9 故量同比明显偏低，且PDH开工持续坐挺，基本面呈现强现实弱预期格局，近期随着炼厂开工率企稳回升，进口量延续同期高位运行，强现实局面边际松动，PDH降负预期的增强亦对基本面转 弱形成助力。 后市展望 盘面下挫后肉盘粉价相较外盘以及相较现货的高估值均有所改善，国内特厂外放量边际增加、海外高供应延续背景下LPG供应压力的超级，海外季节性需求支撑下下行节奏预计仍有波折。原 油偏弱预期下后续仍以关注逢高空配及3-4价差反套为主，节奏上主要关注PDH降量的兑现情况。 风险提示 图表 1:中国液化气商品量 万吨 2 ...

信期货有限公司 Company Limited 供应担忧叠加库存低位,沪锡再创年内新高 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 风险因素:主产区供应扰动:佤邦复产进度超预期;全球经济衰退 研究员: | 郑非凡 从业资格号:F03088415 | 投资咨询号:Z0016667 | 白 帅 从业资格号:F03093201 | | --- | --- | --- | | 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 | 投资咨询号:Z0021455 | 王雨欣 从业资格号:F03108000 | | 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 | 投资咨询号:Z0022534 | 桂 伶 从业资格号:F03114737 | | 张 远 从业资格号:F03147334 投资咨询号:Z0022750 | | | 鹰要最示。本报告非报货交易咨询业务项下服务。其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。我可不会因为关注、収到或成读本储告内容而规相关人员为客户，市场商风险、投资滞谨慎。 免费声明、除非另有说明、中信桐货有限公司（以下简称"中信期货）拥有本报告的班仪 或其他相关知识产权、未经授权、不得发送或爱制本报告任何内容。中馆 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of coal and crude oil continue to be weak. The IEA has lowered its crude oil surplus forecast for the first time since May, but the chemical industry is still dragged down by the supply side [1]. - The prices of chemical industry chain products follow the raw materials and decline. The supply pressure in the petrochemical industry remains high, and the prices of most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical premiums and supply pressures, and is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - The asphalt market is affected by geopolitical disturbances, and the futures price rises first and then falls, with an over - valued absolute price [9]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has insufficient price support, and the low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall [9][11]. - Most chemical products such as methanol, urea, and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly, while PX and PTA may fluctuate within a certain range [12]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure continues. - **Main Logic**: Affected by the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela, geopolitical premiums fluctuate. The IEA and OPEC monthly reports strengthen the surplus expectation, but the IEA has lowered the surplus forecast for next year. The price of Russian oil is weakening, and the floating storage is rising. - **Outlook**: The surplus pattern continues, and the geopolitical expectation fluctuates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price rises first and then falls under geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists, and the situation between the US and Venezuela heats up. The asphalt futures price rises but then falls due to the drag of black varieties. The pricing weight returns to Shandong spot. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price support of high - sulfur fuel oil is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement exists, and the three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weak. The refinery processing demand is weak, and the fuel oil demand is still weak. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall. - **Main Logic**: It follows the crude oil to fall, and the strengthening of natural gas boosts the demand expectation. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation and follows the crude oil to fluctuate [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The coastal unloading is lower than expected, and the inland supply and demand support, so methanol fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The port inventory unexpectedly decreases, but it is still at a high level. The inland market is affected by the inflow of low - price port goods and weather disturbances. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [25]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The purchase of compound fertilizers may decrease, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as the suspension of the promotion of off - season storage and the possible decrease in compound fertilizer procurement. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction, off - season storage progress, and compound fertilizer factory operation [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The market pessimism spreads, and the existing device maintenance cannot reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. - **Main Logic**: The price continues to fall, and the current device maintenance cannot change the situation of supply exceeding demand. - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a low - level range [18][19]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The tight spot of PTA supports the negotiation of PX, but the upstream cost support is poor and lacks substantial benefits. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak, and the PX price rises and then回调. The market has a strong expectation, but the upstream cost support is insufficient. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and the PXN is expected to be in the range of [260, 300] [12]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains strong. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost rises and then falls, and the PTA price follows the upstream. The downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the spot circulation is tight. - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to fluctuate and consolidate, and the processing fee runs within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02 [12]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news. - **Main Logic**: The recent import volume of pure benzene arrives at the port in large quantities, and the port inventory accumulates rapidly. However, it is expected to improve marginally in Q1 2026. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate [14][16]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news, with a slightly stronger trend. - **Main Logic**: The short - term trading is mainly around liquidity issues. The port inventory is depleted, and the tradable volume is not abundant. In Q1 2026, the pure benzene pattern improves, which supports styrene. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment improvement in early 2026 [17]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is divided, the PTA price is briefly supported, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the polyester staple fiber price. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to fluctuate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [21][22]. Polyester Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream polyester raw material costs are divided. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures fall weakly, the PTA follows the cost to rise, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the overall valuation of polyester bottle chips. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate, and the processing fee has enhanced support below [23]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The raw material and maintenance support are still limited, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates weakly, and the plastic's own fundamental support is limited. The downstream demand enters the off - season. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [29]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The coal price is still weak, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates downwards, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [30]. PL - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, but the downstream PP price is weak, dragging down PL through the decline in powder production. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: The production reduction scale is limited, and the price decline is cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the marginal enterprise production decreases, but the surplus expectation is not reversed. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The upstream has not reduced production, and the price is weakly cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and the upstream profit is close to the break - even point, but there is no production reduction yet. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33][34]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, and PP have different degrees of change [36]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and PX are provided [37]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, and MA - UR are provided [39]. (2) Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report provides a framework for monitoring the basis and spreads of multiple chemical products such as methanol, urea, and styrene, but specific data is not fully presented. (3) Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline [281]. - **Energy Index**: The energy index on December 11, 2025, has a daily decline of 1.00%, a 5 - day decline of 2.66%, a 1 - month decline of 3.14%, and a year - to - date decline of 10.67% [283].

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-12 美联储降息靴子落地，铂钯延续震荡 12⽉11⽇，GFEX铂主⼒合约收盘价为442.40元/克，涨跌幅为-0.48%； 钯主⼒合约收盘价为385.25元/克，涨跌幅为-0.68%。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 主要逻辑：当前俄罗斯地缘问题是钯供应的关键扰动因素，美国商务 部正在对从俄罗斯进口的未锻造钯进行调查，调查报告仍未发布。由 于对俄罗斯钯的制裁预期，市场上大量钯金流向美国，导致其他地区 钯金供应出现阶段性收紧。此外，上周普京在克里姆林宫与特朗普特 使维特科夫及特朗普女婿库什纳举行长达五小时的闭门会谈，双方未 就乌克兰问题达成妥协方案，俄乌冲突缓和预期略有降温。需求方 面，钯金呈现显著的结构性压力。综合来看，虽然钯长期供需趋松， 但短期现货紧缺导致价格快速走高，叠加美联储再度进入降息周期， 钯价底部具备一定支撑。 展望：现货紧缺叠加宏观环境相对偏好，短期钯金价格震荡偏强。中 长期关注美国对俄罗斯钯调查落地后现货供需趋松所带来的价格回落 风险，预计钯金价格震荡运行。 ⻛险提⽰：全球经济衰退；美联储货币政策变化；俄罗斯地缘冲突变 化；主产区 ...