1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook: The overall outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the expectation of rising energy valuations is increasing, leading to a low - level upward repair of coking coal, alloys, and glass - soda ash futures prices. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, with steel and iron ore inventories still under pressure, so the upward driving force for steel and iron ore prices is limited, and they will mainly operate in an oscillatory manner. Overall, it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, the peak - season expectations are still cautious, the driving force for the futures price increase is limited, and there is a risk of a high - level correction after the price increase. Attention should be paid to the policy orientation of important meetings and the fulfillment of peak - season demand [1][2][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have recovered and are at a high level, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to ease in the short term. Although there are uncertainties in the macro - environment due to the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, after the Spring Festival, the weight of fundamental pricing is expected to increase. After the weakening of macro - disturbances, the fundamental pressure is still large, and iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly. The port inventory has increased, and the pressure on the inventory is still there. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of molten iron. Attention should be paid to the support strength of post - festival demand [2][7][8] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak, the fundamental driving force is limited, and the price fluctuation is small. The supply is gradually recovering, and it is expected to return to normal in about two weeks. The demand is at a seasonal low, and the inventory has decreased significantly during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the actual demand situation [2][9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the long run, there is a slight growth expectation for both supply and demand of coke. In the short term, although there are disturbances, the supply - demand structure of coke will continue to be healthy. However, the cost support of coking coal has weakened, and the expectation of spot price reduction is strong. The futures price is expected to follow the cost - end coking coal. The supply may decrease slightly during the Two Sessions, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory pressure is acceptable [2][9][10] - **Coking Coal**: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of production in coal mines will accelerate, but the supply level is still limited. The fundamentals of coking coal have pressure, but the overall contradiction is not prominent. The spot price is expected to run weakly and stably, while the futures price is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation affected by capital sentiment. The supply has recovered rapidly, the import is at a high level, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average, and the market is in a wait - and - see mood [2][11] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market has strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental support is insufficient, there is resistance in the downward transmission of the cost end, and the upstream inventory is high. There is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against. The cost is rising, the demand recovery is slow, and the inventory may further accumulate [3][14] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has weak supply and demand, the fundamental contradiction is limited but the driving force is insufficient. Continuous price increases may accelerate the resumption of production of manufacturers, leading to a marginal weakening of the supply - demand relationship. There is a risk of high - level correction when the futures valuation is quickly repaired above the cost line. The cost support is strengthening, the demand recovery is slow, and the manufacturers' willingness to resume production is increasing [3][15] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has a disturbance expectation, but the inventories of the middle and downstream are moderately high. The current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the demand does not improve significantly after the Lantern Festival, the high inventory will always suppress the price. The supply may decline in the long run, the downstream demand has not recovered, and the inventory pressure is large [3][12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the high inventory and high supply always suppress the price [3][12] 3.5 Steel - The spot market is gradually recovering, but the overall production is at a low level. The demand is also at a low level, and the inventory is still accumulating. The fundamental contradiction has not been alleviated. Affected by the upcoming Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, the macro - environment is still uncertain. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the policy expectations of important meetings and the recovery of demand [7] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2482.90, up 1.00%; the commodity 20 index was 2847.65, up 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2364.70, up 1.43%. The steel industry chain index on the same day was 1915.51, with a daily increase of 0.33%, a 5 - day increase of 0.23%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.74%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.06% [100][102]

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/03/0 10-094 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 Read more English reports on CITIC Futures Insights: https://www.citicfutures.com/Insights 摘要 Abstract News: Wang Yi speaks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi by phone. (Xinhua). ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas consumption confidence is recovering, industrial orders are showing differentiation, and geopolitical and institutional risks are rising. The overall situation is one of "growth not stalling, policy and geopolitical risks rising". In the US, consumer confidence in February showed consumption resilience, restricting the space for "recession trading". Factory orders in December declined in total but increased after excluding transportation, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, supporting industrial metals. Meanwhile, policy discussions around certain candidates are fermenting, and the Middle - East situation is heating up, pushing up energy and risk - aversion premiums [1]. - In China, policy coordination is strengthening, high - frequency consumption data is positive, and the real - estate market is showing marginal improvement. Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal levels, with a stable liquidity environment beneficial for short - term interest rates. Exports are stable, and consumption during the Spring Festival was active, which may support domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities. The real - estate market is still at a low level, but there are signs of a slight rebound in listing prices in first - and second - tier cities, and the signal of policy optimization is strengthening. The increase in special bond quotas is accompanied by a change in investment structure, and the physical elasticity of infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale, providing limited support for the black chain [1]. - In terms of asset allocation, a structural approach is still recommended, but it is necessary to distinguish whether the conflict will spill over. If the war does not expand further and energy production, transportation, and Strait passage are not substantially affected, non - ferrous metals and mid - cap styles still have relative advantages. If the conflict expands and impacts global risk appetite, risk assets will be temporarily affected, with equities and industrial metals under pressure, while the risk - aversion premiums of precious metals and energy will further increase. Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are recommended to be over - allocated, government bonds are generally neutral with a preference for short - term bonds, equities should focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black chain should be under - allocated, and the energy - chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices to the chemical chain [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomy - Consumer confidence: In February, the US Conference Board's consumer confidence rebounded, indicating that consumption resilience remains, restricting the space for "recession trading" [1]. - Industrial orders: In December, the total factory orders declined, but after excluding transportation, they increased. Non - defense capital goods (excluding aircraft) continued to expand, and core capital expenditure remained resilient, which supported industrial metals [1]. - Policy and geopolitical risks: Policy discussions around certain candidates are fermenting, affecting the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. The Middle - East situation is heating up due to the US's strengthened stance on Iran and Israeli air strikes on Iran, pushing up energy and risk - aversion premiums [1]. Domestic Macroeconomy - Policy and liquidity: Fiscal and monetary injections in February were higher than seasonal levels, creating a stable liquidity environment that is beneficial for short - term interest rates [1]. - Consumption and exports: Exports are stable. Consumption during the Spring Festival was active, and the social retail sales from January to February may be better than expected, which can support domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities [1]. - Real - estate market: Real - estate transactions are still at a low level, but listing prices in first - and second - tier cities have slightly rebounded, and the signal of policy optimization is strengthening. However, the sustainability of the recovery remains to be observed [1]. - Infrastructure: The special bond quota has been increased, but the investment structure has changed. The physical elasticity of infrastructure may be lower than the nominal scale, providing limited support for the black chain [1]. Asset Views - General principle: Asset allocation should be based on a structural approach, and it is necessary to distinguish whether the conflict will spill over [1]. - Asset allocation suggestions: Currently, non - ferrous metals and precious metals are recommended to be over - allocated, government bonds are generally neutral with a preference for short - term bonds, equities should focus on mid - cap styles, iron ore in the black chain should be under - allocated, and the energy - chemical sector should pay attention to the transmission rhythm of oil prices to the chemical chain [1]. Market Performance of Various Sectors (Based on Tables) Financial Market - Stock index futures: Entered the position adjustment observation period, with concerns about the inflow of incremental funds and the credit risk of AI enterprises. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - Stock index options: The options market is trading with the expectation of a medium - to long - term slow - rise. Attention should be paid to the liquidity of the options market, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - Government bond futures: Institutions are cautious before the "Two Sessions", and the bond market has declined. The implementation of monetary policy should be monitored, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with fluctuations increasing. Geopolitical conflicts are driving up the risk - aversion premium of gold, and the delivery pressure of silver in March has eased [4]. Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Due to the tense geopolitical situation, there is an expectation of price increases in the spot market. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, and attention should be paid to geopolitical events, the traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle - East situation, and the opening of spot market cabins [4]. Black Building Materials - Steel products: After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are weak, and the futures market has limited upward momentum. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig - iron production [4]. - Iron ore: Shipments remain high, and arrivals have slightly decreased. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipments, domestic pig - iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [4]. - Other products: Coke, coking coal, silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are all expected to have volatile short - term trends. Different factors such as steel mill production, raw material costs, and inventory replenishment should be monitored [4]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals: Due to the US - Iran military conflict, there are concerns about supply disruptions. Most non - ferrous metals are expected to have a volatile and slightly upward short - term trend, but different factors such as supply disruptions, policy changes, and demand recovery should be considered for each metal [4]. - Other products: Industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate also have their own influencing factors, and their short - term trends are expected to be volatile [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Most energy and chemical products: Affected by the US - Iran situation, the prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. Different factors such as OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical situations, and raw material prices should be considered for each product [5]. - Other products: Asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and some other products also have their own influencing factors, and their short - term trends are expected to be volatile [5]. Agriculture - Most agricultural products: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, the prices of most oil - price - sensitive agricultural products are expected to be volatile. Different factors such as trade policies, weather conditions, and production and demand should be considered for each product [5]. - Other products: Some products such as paper pulp, double - gum paper, and logs also have their own influencing factors, and their short - term trends are expected to be volatile [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The basic metals are experiencing wide - range oscillations due to the concerns about supply disruptions and the rise of the US dollar. There is strong support from the supply side, but the terminal demand is weak. In the short - term, the market is cautious, but energy price increases and potential supply disruption risks still support the basic metals. One can cautiously participate in short - long opportunities for aluminum and copper, and then focus on short - long opportunities for copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel after inventory depletion. In the medium - term, the risks of the Fed's independence and supply disruptions remain, and varieties such as copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **View**: The US dollar index rebounds, and copper prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper reported a premium of - 190 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 56 dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.94 dollars/dry ton; the Middle East situation heated up, and Israel announced an attack on Iran [5]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the rebound of the US dollar index briefly pressured non - ferrous metal prices. In terms of supply and demand, the supply disruptions of copper mines continue to increase, the spot TC of copper concentrates is at a low level and has declined significantly recently, and the supply of copper mines remains tight. In smelting, the long - term processing fee for copper mines in 2026 reached a record low, which further strengthened the expectation of a contraction in the refined copper supply. On the demand side, as the off - season approaches, the terminal demand remains weak, and the social inventory of refined copper is generally high, which restricts the upward space of copper prices. - **Outlook**: The supply constraints of copper still exist, and the short - term geopolitical situation has increased the risk of supply disruptions. Copper prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend [5]. Alumina - **View**: The expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply, and alumina prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2,672.6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.7 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipts were 326,638 tons, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, macro - sentiment has amplified the fluctuations in the market. Fundamentally, as the quotation cycle changes, the current average spot price has dropped significantly compared to the end of last year. Inland high - cost production capacity is facing losses, and the expectation of supply contraction has intensified. However, in reality, the supply contraction is still insufficient, and there is a strong inventory accumulation trend in China. The prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, and the downward shift in costs is weakening the support for alumina prices. - **Outlook**: The actual supply and demand are in a state of oversupply, but the expectation of production cuts has intensified, so alumina is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [6]. Aluminum - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts have increased supply concerns, and aluminum prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 23,928 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 309 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 160 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. On March 2, the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 1.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 70,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 405,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons. On March 3, the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 316,153 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,365 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the US economic data continues to show a structural divergence, and the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has further escalated, but the macro - expectation is expected to remain positive in the future. On the supply side, the domestic built - in production capacity remains stable, and the smelting profit is at a high level; in Indonesia, due to power and other constraints, there are still constraints on the medium - term supply increase. On the demand side, the weekly initial operating rate has slightly recovered, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand still exists, and the spot remains at a discount. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory continues to accumulate, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to decrease. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the repeated capital sentiment and the unchanged expectation of tightening supply and demand are expected to keep aluminum prices oscillating and upward - biased. In the medium - term, the new domestic production capacity is limited, the overseas production is restricted by power and other rigid factors, the demand maintains a resilient growth, the supply and demand will turn to a shortage, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to continue to move up [8]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The cost support continues, and the price oscillates. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the price of ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. On March 3, the registered warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 62,228 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 875 tons [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, the quotation center remains high, and the tight supply situation is difficult to change in the short - term, so the cost support is strong. On the supply side, the operating rate remains at a low level, and the medium - term tax - refund policy and tax transfer may still restrict the supply. On the demand side, the policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues, but the subsidy intensity has declined. In the short - term, high prices suppress downstream demand, and it is still mainly based on rigid demand for low - price replenishment. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has accumulated. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the cost support still exists, and the supply and demand remain stable, so the price is expected to continue to oscillate and be upward - biased. In the medium - term, the cost support logic is strengthened, there is a risk of production reduction or suspension on the supply side due to the cancellation of policies, and the supply and demand maintain a tight balance, so the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and upward - biased trend [11]. Zinc - **View**: The US dollar index rebounds, and zinc prices oscillate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 50 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc to the main contract was - 120 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract was - 50 yuan/ton. As of March 3, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 211,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,600 tons [12]. - **Main Logic**: Macroscopically, the Middle East situation has heated up, and the supply of zinc may be affected by geopolitical disturbances. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the profit of smelters has not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The export of previously locked - price zinc ingots has ended one after another, and the supply pressure of domestic zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new orders from terminals are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but the macro - sentiment has improved, and zinc prices may continue to oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, the supply of zinc ingots will still increase, while the demand increment is small, and zinc prices are expected to decline [12]. Lead - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts have disturbed, and lead prices oscillate. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, the price difference between primary and recycled lead was 75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The price of 1 lead ingots was 16,575 - 16,675 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 185 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. On March 2, the social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets was 67,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,900 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 54,888 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41 tons [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot premium remains stable, the price difference between primary and recycled lead has increased slightly, and the futures warehouse receipts have decreased slightly. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries remains stable, the lead price has risen, the smelting profit of recycled lead has increased slightly, the smelters are still in the process of resuming production, and the weekly output of lead ingots remains stable. On the demand side, at the initial stage of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more cautious, and the orders for electric bicycles have slightly declined. However, as it gradually enters the traditional consumption peak season, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually increase. - **Outlook**: The operating rates of primary and recycled lead smelters are still high, and the output of lead ingots remains at a high level. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises may gradually increase, but the weak terminal demand pattern remains unchanged, and the lead ingot inventory may still accumulate. However, the cost of waste batteries remains high, so lead prices are expected to oscillate [13][15]. Nickel - **View**: The non - ferrous metal sector has corrected, and nickel prices have declined. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 53,649 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 72 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 287,976 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated that the nickel production in 2026 would be about 209 million tons, nearly 20% lower than the planned 260 - 270 million tons in the Work Plan and Budget (RKAB). The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association said that the revision of the RKAB was expected to be approved in July, and the revised RKAB was expected to increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% this year. On March 3, the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the previous day [15]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel production increased again in January, and the overall output of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia in January remained at a high level. The overall supply pressure of nickel still exists, and the overall fundamentals remain in a state of oversupply. The subsequent focus is on the realization of peak - season demand. In terms of policy disturbances, Indonesia has lowered the nickel ore quota for 2026 and plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method for nickel ore, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectations for nickel costs and balance. The subsequent changes in Indonesian policies need to be continuously tracked. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown obvious marginal improvement, the overall supply and demand in February are still relatively loose, and the LME inventory remains at a high level, which puts some pressure on prices. It is necessary to observe the strength of peak - season demand. At the same time, Indonesia's lowering of the 2026 nickel ore quota has significantly adjusted the market's expectations for nickel balance, which provides some support for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and the progress of relevant Indonesian policies needs to be continuously followed [15][16]. Stainless Steel - **View**: Nickel prices have corrected, and the stainless - steel market has oscillated and declined. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the inventory of stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts was 51,591 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 594 tons. In the spot market, on March 3, the premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 spot to the stainless - steel main contract was 215 yuan/ton. On March 3, the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,095 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Main Logic**: The price of nickel iron is relatively strong, and the chromium end is stable. There is still some support on the cost side of stainless steel. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decline significantly month - on - month, but in March, the production schedule is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious, and the subsequent focus is on the realization of the peak season. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory has accumulated to a certain extent, and the warehouse receipts have also increased marginally. - **Outlook**: Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decline significantly month - on - month, but in March, the production schedule is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand is relatively cautious, and it is necessary to observe the strength of the subsequent peak - season realization. The current fundamentals put some pressure on prices. However, considering that the profits of the industrial chain have been suppressed for a long time and there is also support from the ore end, stainless - steel prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and the progress of relevant Indonesian policies needs to be continuously followed [17]. Tin - **View**: The supply expectation in the main production areas is loosening, and tin prices have significantly corrected. - **Information Analysis**: On March 3, the LME tin warehouse receipts decreased by 80 tons month - on - month to 7,470 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased by 215 tons month - on - month to 11,316 tons; the Shanghai tin positions decreased by 16,517 lots month - on - month to 91,367 lots. In the spot market, on March 3, the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin ingots was 412,850 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 21,250 yuan/ton [19]. - **Main Logic**: The supply expectation in the main tin production areas is loosening, and combined with the weakening of market sentiment, tin prices have corrected. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mines in low - altitude areas, and it is expected that the ore output in Wa State will gradually increase. In Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Administration has set the tin production target for 2026 at 65,860 tons, higher than the previously expected quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation has turned loose. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, and the supply risk remains high. In the future, on the supply side, the mine end continues to be tight, the processing fee for tin concentrates remains at a low level, and it is difficult to increase the output of refined tin. On the demand side, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, the consumption in areas such as new energy vehicles continues to rise, and considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. - **Outlook**: The supply risk is high, and in the long - term, tin prices are expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend [19]. 4. Market Index Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index and Special Index**: On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed that the commodity index was 2,482.90, an increase of 1.00%; the commodity 20 index was 2,847.65, an increase of 0.83%; the industrial products index was 2,364.70, an increase of 1.43% [144]. - **Sector Index**: On March 3, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2,717.21, with a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day increase of 0.26%, a 1 - month decline of 3.99%, and an increase of 1.16% since the beginning of the year [146].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is mentioned in the report. 2. Report's Core View Geopolitical disturbances continue to affect the agricultural market, leading to significant fluctuations in the prices of various agricultural products. The market is characterized by a mix of long and short factors, with notable impacts from geopolitical events, policies, and supply - demand dynamics. Different agricultural products show diverse trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements [5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to show a sideways - to - upward trend. Although the supply of oilseeds is relatively sufficient, short - term positive sentiment from the US biodiesel policy is countered by factors such as weakening palm oil exports and a slowdown in the biodiesel policy. A strategy of buying at stage - low prices is recommended [5][6]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to high - level volatility in crude oil prices. US soybean oil is supported by rising crude oil prices and positive biodiesel policy expectations but faces potential high - level adjustments. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in February due to rain and floods, and exports weakened. However, production is expected to recover in March, limiting the rebound space. China has reduced the anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to become more abundant, with prices following the overall oil trend [5]. 3.2. Protein Meal - **Outlook**: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move sideways. After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season for consumption, with both supply and demand weak. The domestic market follows external market fluctuations and faces short - term adjustment pressure [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, geopolitical conflicts and biofuel policies have pushed up US soybean prices, and the net long position of US soybean funds has reached the highest level in the same period since 2019. Domestically, the spot market is weak, and the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, suppressing the rebound of the futures market. The inventory of oil mills is at a high level, and the downstream demand lacks growth momentum [7]. 3.3. Corn - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to move sideways - to - upward. In the short term, after the Lantern Festival and with the expected warming of the weather, wet corn is expected to be gradually sold, and the increase in spot prices may narrow. In the medium term, based on the tight annual balance sheet, corn is generally bullish [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The domestic corn market is strong, supported by limited remaining grain at the grassroots level, farmers' reluctance to sell, and downstream replenishment demand. After the Spring Festival, snow in some areas has reduced the pressure on grain storage, and wet corn is expected to be sold gradually. Downstream enterprises have a demand for replenishment, and the price has increased slightly. However, imported grains may suppress the price in the southern sales area [10]. 3.4. Pigs - **Outlook**: Pigs are expected to move sideways - to - downward. After the Spring Festival, it is the off - season for consumption, and the supply of pigs remains excessive. In the long term, if the production capacity reduction in the second half of 2025 is realized, the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The government plans to purchase 10,000 tons of pork on March 4. In the short term, some second - fattening has entered the market. In the medium term, the supply of pigs is still abundant. In the long term, the reduction in sow inventory in the second half of 2025 may lead to a reduction in the supply pressure in the second half of 2026 [12]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Outlook**: The market is expected to move sideways. The fundamental variables are limited, and the market sentiment is weak in the short term, but the downward adjustment range is expected to be limited [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The price of natural rubber rose rapidly and then fell sharply. Geopolitical events in the Middle East have little impact on supply but negatively affect downstream tire orders. The market sentiment is weak, and there are few positive fundamental factors. However, due to the approaching low - production season and stable downstream demand, the price is likely to be more likely to rise than fall [14]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Outlook**: The market is expected to remain strong in the short term, mainly following the sector sentiment [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical events in the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in crude oil prices, boosting the synthetic rubber market. The spot price of butadiene has also risen, providing upward momentum. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026 [15]. 3.7. Cotton - **Outlook**: Cotton is expected to move sideways - to - upward. In the long - term, the price is expected to rise, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [16]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, after the Spring Festival, the positive factors have been digested, and there is a lack of new driving forces, so the price is in a sideways adjustment. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, and the expected reduction in the planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 will drive up the price. However, the increase in imported yarn may affect the final inventory. The international market is currently loose but is expected to tighten in the next season [16]. 3.8. Sugar - **Outlook**: Sugar is expected to move sideways - to - downward. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under downward pressure. In the short term, affected by the Middle East conflict, the price may have a small - scale rebound [18]. - **Market Analysis**: In the 25/26 sugar - making season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus. Although there are some positive factors, it is difficult to reverse the supply - surplus pattern. The Middle East conflict has pushed up the crude oil price, which may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil and then affect the sugar supply [18]. 3.9. Pulp - **Outlook**: Pulp is expected to move sideways. The expectation of improved demand in the future is positive, but the flat supply quotation is negative, and the price will remain in a wide - range sideways movement [20]. - **Market Analysis**: The pulp futures market is weak due to the weak performance of the financial market. The demand in the industrial chain is still in the recovery stage, and the post - festival replenishment momentum is average. However, the demand is expected to improve seasonally in the future. The supply quotation has both positive and negative factors, and the exchange - rate appreciation is negative for the domestic price [20]. 3.10. Double - Glued Paper - **Outlook**: Double - glued paper is expected to move sideways. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to rise first and then fall from March to May [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot market of double - glued paper is in a wait - and - see state, and some paper mills are calling for price increases, but the demand is weak. In March and April, both supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to rise. In May, due to the influence of publishing tenders and weak social orders, the price may fall [22]. 3.11. Logs - **Outlook**: Logs are expected to move sideways. In the short term, the spot price increase provides strong support, but there is a lack of upward driving force. In the medium term, the market may face inventory pressure after the peak season [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The spot price of logs has increased due to low inventory in Shandong and the release of post - festival demand. The overseas market price has bottomed out and stabilized, and the valuation has increased. However, after the peak season in the first - quarter mid - term, the inventory may increase again, and the price will face pressure [23]. 3.12. Commodity Index - On March 3, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities showed an upward trend. The special index, including the commodity 20 index and the industrial products index, also increased. The agricultural product index increased by 0.32% on the day, 0.42% in the past 5 days, 0.17% in the past month, and 1.57% since the beginning of the year [184][186].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The adjustment of demand expectations and the withdrawal of funds have led to a sharp decline in lithium carbonate prices. In the short - to - medium term, investors are re - evaluating the impact of the decline in electric vehicle sales on battery consumption, and the panic withdrawal of funds has caused a sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices against the backdrop of a general decline in non - ferrous metals. In the long term, the supply of silicon is expected to contract, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in the growth stage, but the demand expectations are also rising, and the expected surplus in supply - demand is narrowing, which will push up the price center [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: As of March 3, the price of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 8650 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9300 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory Data**: As of last week, the domestic inventory was 462,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. Among them, the market inventory was 186,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%, and the factory inventory was 276,050 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [7]. - **Production Data**: In February, the industrial silicon production was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%. The cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [7]. - **Export Data**: In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [7]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the operation in the southwest during the dry season has dropped to a very low level, and Sichuan has basically stopped production. The start - up of large northwest factories has increased this week, and it is expected to continue to recover. On the demand side, the demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is weak. In the long - term, there is still pressure of over - supply [7]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long - term, the silicon price is still under pressure. Currently, the market sentiment is volatile, and the silicon price is expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On March 3, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 54.5 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day [7][8]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: On March 3, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9510 lots, with no change from the previous day [8]. - **Import and Export Data**: In December 2025, the export volume of polysilicon was about 1670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December was about 25,115.57 tons. The import volume in December was about 1872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was about 19,051.01 tons [8]. - **Main Logic**: As the dry season approaches, the polysilicon production in the southwest is gradually reducing, and the current production is at a low level. The demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing, which puts pressure on the price. However, the supply is expected to continue to contract, and the long - term supply - demand may tighten, so the price may show a wide - range fluctuation [10]. - **Outlook**: The weak demand drags down the polysilicon price, but considering the continued supply contraction, the price may show a wide - range fluctuation [10]. 3.1.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Position Data**: On March 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract decreased by 12.3% to 150,860 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, and the total position of the lithium carbonate contract decreased by 64,550 lots to 648,060 lots [11]. - **Spot Price Data**: On March 3, the morning spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 162,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,400 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the evening market price was 159,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The morning price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 159,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10,600 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the evening price was 159,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14,150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 441 lots to 37,755 lots [11]. - **Main Logic**: In March, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, but the subsequent performance of the terminal needs to be observed. Since 2026, the supply has been relatively strong, and the demand has also been good. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the social inventory has decreased. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand have recovered. The strong demand in March and the ban on lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe have boosted the market sentiment, but the new energy vehicle sales from January to February are not optimistic, and it remains to be verified in March and April, which is the key to the supply - demand balance in the second quarter. Before that, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the supply - demand shows a tight balance, but the demand shows signs of weakening, and the price is expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2.2 Polysilicon No specific content provided in the given text. 3.2.3 Lithium Carbonate No specific content provided in the given text. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial product index) all showed an upward trend on March 3, 2026. The comprehensive index increased by 1.00%, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.83%, and the industrial product index increased by 1.43% [49]. - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On March 3, 2026, the new energy commodity index was 519.18, with a daily decline of 5.21%, a decline of 5.36% in the past 5 days, a decline of 9.30% in the past month, and an increase of 1.86% since the beginning of the year [51].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - On March 2, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 2.06% to 626.5 yuan/gram, and the palladium main contract rose 1.00% to 463.65 yuan/gram [1] - Due to continuous geopolitical issues, platinum prices are expected to oscillate strongly. The US tariff issue and the US - Iran situation are disturbing the precious metals market. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar credit will benefit the price of platinum. The follow - up development of the conflict will determine the short - term upward elasticity of platinum and palladium [2] - The palladium spot market remains in short supply, providing strong support at the bottom. Supply uncertainties continue, and although long - term supply and demand tend to be loose, the short - term shortage will support prices. Geopolitical risks may increase short - term volatility [3] - Both platinum and palladium are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium and long term, supported by the shortage of spot and the weakening of the US dollar credit [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - Main Logic: The US tariff issue and the US - Iran situation are continuously disturbing the precious metals market. Trump's attitude towards tariffs may lead to a further contraction of the US dollar credit in the long - term. The escalation of the US - Iran situation has increased market risk - aversion, boosting precious metal prices in the short - term. The US is in a long - term interest - rate cut channel, and the weakening of the US dollar credit is beneficial to the long - term price elasticity of platinum [2] - Outlook: Oscillating strongly. With fundamental resilience and weakening US dollar credit, a medium - to long - term upward - oscillating trend is expected [2] Palladium - Main Logic: Supply uncertainties continue. The US has made a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is also considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. The tight spot market supports prices. On the demand side, palladium still faces structural pressure. Although long - term supply - demand is loosening, short - term shortages support prices, and geopolitical risks may increase short - term volatility [3] - Outlook: Oscillating strongly. Supported by short - term shortages and weakening US dollar credit, a medium - to long - term upward - oscillating trend is expected [3] Commodity Index - On March 2, 2026, the comprehensive index is not detailed. The special indices include the Commodity Index (2458.25, +1.60%), the Commodity 20 Index (2824.14, +1.76%), and the Industrial Products Index (2331.34, +1.48%) [48] Plate Index - For the non - ferrous metals index on March 2, 2026, the closing value is 2732.94, with a daily increase of 0.89%, a 5 - day increase of 1.38%, a 1 - month decrease of 3.37%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.75% [50]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The profit of styrene is good, with the domestic operating rate rising and the overseas operating rate falling. The global styrene operating rate is at a relatively low level [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Domestic Styrene Operating Rate**: As of February 26, 2026, the domestic styrene operating rate was 74.24%, a week - on - week increase of 1.04 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 1.46 pct. The weekly output was 37.24 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons from the previous period. A device in North China increased its load after maintenance, and a device in East China restarted and increased production after maintenance, with no new shutdowns or load reductions [1]. - **Overseas Styrene Operating Rate**: As of March 2, 2026, the overseas styrene operating rate was 75.15%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.58 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14 pct, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past five years. The 575,000 - ton/year Carville device in the United States planned to be under maintenance from early March to early April and had already stopped for maintenance [1]. - **Global Styrene Operating Rate**: As of March 2, 2026, the global styrene operating rate was 74.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.74 pct and a year - on - year decrease of 4.50 pct, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in the past six years [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the long - term supply expectation of tin has relaxed, the short - term tightness in the ore end has not been fundamentally improved. The tin price is expected to be strongly supported at the bottom and may still fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, if the resumption and new production of major tin - producing areas proceed smoothly, the supply - demand of tin may ease, but it is still expected to remain in a tight state, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the long term, the ore end is difficult to see significant growth, and with strong demand, the center of the tin price is expected to show an upward trend [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On March 3, 2026, the tin price had a significant correction. The Shanghai tin main contract fell 2.0% to 394,890 yuan/ton at the close. The main reasons were the expected loosening of supply in major producing areas and the weak overall market sentiment, which triggered the departure of long - position funds [2][3] - The Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Bureau set the 2026 tin production target at 65,860 tons, higher than the previous quota of 60,000 tons, improving the supply expectation. On February 27, Wa State in Myanmar accelerated the resumption of production in high - grade tin mining areas at low altitudes, and the subsequent ore output is expected to increase [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the domestic ore end is still tight, restricting refined tin production. As of February 27, the processing fee for 60% grade tin ore was 10,000 yuan/ton, and that for 40% grade was 14,000 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively low level. In January, the domestic refined tin production was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.74%, and the domestic tin smelter operating rate was 56.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points [3] - Recently, the visible inventory of tin has accumulated. As of March 2, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 11,531 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 7,470 tons [3] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the tight ore end has led to a shortage of raw materials for smelters and low tin ore processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin production. In terms of demand, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in areas such as new energy vehicles continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand will continue to grow [4] - Strategy: Wait for the tin price to adjust in place, and then continue to focus on low - buying and long - position operations [4]

B中信期货有限公司 能源价格走势偏强,焦煤盘面低位修复 2026/03/03 CITIC Futures Company Limited 陶存辉 钟宏 电宇蒙 研究员: 余典 醛原 从业资格号 F03122523 从业资格号 F03099559 从业资格号 F03100815 从业资格号 F03144159 从业资格号 F03118246 投资咨询号 Z0019832 投资咨询号 Z0020955 投资咨询号 Z0021807 投资咨询号 Z0022199 投资咨询号 Z0022727 印尼媒炭供应偏紧,在港口库存水位偏低的环境下,节后动力媒市场看涨情绪不减,港口媒价持续上探;叠加本周在地缘 政治因素影响下,原油价格强势上行,市场对能源估值上涨预期升温，而从焦煤自身的基本面来看,市场供应及库存压力均较 为有限,黑色产业链旺季临近下游铁水产量趋增、焦煤基本面存在支撑。今日主力合约期价低位修复,大商所数据显示, jm2605收报1127元/吨,日内收盘价涨3%。 供应端来看,国有煤矿春节假期较短,目前已基本复产,民营煤矿假期相对较长,目前也在陆续复产,焦煤产量趋于回 升,但整体复产高度难超预期,蒙煤通关已全面恢复 ...