1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural and related products, including their current situations, influencing factors, and future outlooks. Overall, the market is complex with various products showing different trends such as oscillation, upward, or downward movements. The report also provides some trading strategies and suggestions based on the analysis [1][5][8][11][13][17][19][21][22][24][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Optimistic demand expectations boost the upward trend of oils and fats. US soybean oil futures rebounded significantly under the positive expectation of US biodiesel, palm oil entered the production - reduction stage with good export performance, and led the rise of oils and fats. The overall supply of oilseeds is relatively loose, and the palm oil inventory is expected to decrease during the production - reduction season. It is recommended to pay attention to buying hedging after a callback and the arbitrage strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil oscillates, palm oil oscillates strongly, and rapeseed oil oscillates weakly [6]. 3.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Overnight US soybeans rose, driving both protein meals to close higher. Factors such as positive Sino - US talks, increased US soybean exports, and expected domestic demand support the price. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening of futures prices due to the repair of the discount under high profits [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal all oscillate. Soybean meal is stronger than rapeseed meal [9]. 3.3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The market is in a state of game between the policy ceiling and the demand floor, and the oscillation continues. The supply in the Northeast is in a tight - balance state, while the supply in North China has increased. The downstream feed enterprises maintain a stable inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises have a low inventory and need to stock up before the Spring Festival. The policy grain may suppress the price increase [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [12]. 3.4. Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and the spot price continues to weaken. In the short term, the slaughter rhythm at the end of the month needs attention; in the medium term, the supply pressure will last until April 2026; in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026 [13][14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year, and the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [15]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market price followed BR to rise slightly. The price increase is mainly driven by commodity funds, and the fundamental driving force is insufficient. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weak after the price rise [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables are limited, and the medium - term strategy is to buy on dips. The short - term market may return to wide - range oscillation [18]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Multiple factors resonate, and the market price rises significantly. The core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026, and the rotation of commodity funds to the chemical sector also has a positive impact [19][20]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is short - term pressure. The medium - term trend is oscillating strongly [20]. 3.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price rebounds with certain support near 14,400 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price is in an adjustment period due to the phased realization of positive factors, but in the long term, the price is expected to rise based on the tight supply - demand balance and policy factors [21]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [21]. 3.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price rebounds slightly. The global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season is expected to be in surplus, and the price is under pressure. The domestic supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [21]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation weakly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [21]. 3.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot market atmosphere is weak, and the demand pressure remains unchanged. The import cost is increasing, but the demand is in the off - season, and the futures market is under pressure [22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation weakly [22][23]. 3.10. Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - glue paper rose at the end of the session. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is weak, and the price increase is difficult to pass on. The industry hedging enthusiasm at high prices suppresses the upward space [24]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation weakly [24]. 3.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The market rebounds from a low level due to the warming of the commodity market. The futures price rebounds after hitting the support level, and the spot price in Jiangsu is rising due to tight supply [24][25]. - **Outlook**: The market will operate in a short - term range. It is recommended to operate in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter for the 03 contract [25].

十亿美元 持有美食变动规模(2025/11相较于2024/11) 150.0 =美债持有变动 100. 0 50.0 0.0 -50.0 -100.0 美债坑家结构跟踪 | 高频服装变 | | --- | | 美做灵型 玩家类型 有量占比 利率敏感性 | 图说金融(20260122) 如何看待当前对欧洲养老金抛售美债的担忧? 地缘风险引发不确定性已开始影响部分主权投资者的资产配置决策,点燃投资者对"去美元化"的担忧。 作为美债重要的海外持有方(约占38.9%),欧洲投资者是其市场流动性的关键支撑。在上一轮"去美元化 "交易盛行期间,欧洲非主要的抛售方,反而比利时、法国、挪威等欧洲国家仍持续增持美债。由此来看，当 前这一叙事的风险在于:欧洲投资者若停止增持或减缓增持,即构成结构性压力,主动抛售的影响将更为剧烈 当前,外国官方部门因储备增长放缓与美元信心减弱而需求下降,私人部门也因对冲后利差为负而配置意 愿低迷。目前需求或主要来自博弈美联储降息的交易盘。若劳动力市场保持当前"低速平衡"状态,美联储短 期难转向宽松,叠加地缘不确定性,美债仍处逆风期,10年美债利率运行中枢或在4.2%附近,市场风险需警惕。 风险提示 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - BR has seen a significant rebound in the past two days, with a single - day increase of over 4.5% on January 22, closing at 12,270 yuan/ton. Since late November last year, it has had an upward trend with a gain of over 20% in the past two months. The recent price increase is mainly due to the expected tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026 [2][4]. - In the short - term, the BR futures market is supported by butadiene supply expectations and the rotation of commodity funds into the chemical sector, so a long - position strategy is recommended. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to whether the expectations for BR raw materials can be fulfilled, as the degree of fulfillment may lead to different market trends [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Performance - The BR main contract has rebounded sharply in the past two days, closing at 12,270 yuan/ton on January 22 with a single - day increase of over 4.5% [2]. Market Review - The upward trend of BR since late November last year is mainly driven by the expected tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. This expectation comes from two aspects: no new domestic butadiene production capacity is planned in the first half of 2026, while there are new production capacity expansion plans for its downstream industries; in 2026, there will be shutdowns of ethylene cracking production capacity in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, which will increase overseas demand for domestic butadiene. Additionally, seasonal maintenance of domestic butadiene plants in the second quarter may further tighten supply [4]. - Since butadiene prices bottomed out in late November last year, downstream production profits improved, leading to increased consumption of butadiene and higher spot prices. However, as butadiene prices return above 9,000 yuan/ton, downstream profits are compressed, which may negatively affect butadiene demand. Currently, the high supply and high inventory problems in the butadiene spot market remain unresolved, and the market is mainly driven by expectations [5].

on Jan 21st, tin prices showed significant strength, closing up 5.79% to Rmb418,420ft. The main drivers behind the rise in tin price were lwofold: firstly, market sentiment improved as most non-ferrous metals stabilized over the past couple of days, boosting overall market mood secondly, concerns over supply disruptions increased due to the escalation of security conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). On Jan 15th, the Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Democratic Republic of the ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - No relevant content found Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - On January 21, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton; the imported ore price from Guinea was 63 US dollars/dry ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 US dollars/dry ton [1] - The spot price index on January 21 was 2634 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 6,889 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 177 tons [1] - The aluminum import profit and loss on January 21 was -2052 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 464 yuan/ton [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 21, the average price of 8M A00 was 23,710 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 30 yuan/ton, and the premium/discount was -150 yuan/ton [1] - The electrolytic aluminum smelting profit on January 21 was 7,579 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 34 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 138,755 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,196 tons [1] - The import profit and loss on January 21 was 134 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 21 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Alloy - On January 21, the Baotai 4001 price was 2,040 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton [1] - The refined - scrap price difference of raw aluminum on January 21 was 2,509 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3,530 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 119,128 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,012 tons [1] - The import profit and loss on January 21 was -3 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 42 yuan/ton [1]

市场情绪回暖,锡价强势上涨 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 量新动态及原因 1月21日报价明显走强。收盘涨5.70%至418420元吨。锡价上涨的驱动主要两个：一是市场情绪的修复，近两日来，多数有色品种止跌企稳，对市场情绪带来提振：二是供应拉动的担忧, 近日刚果会安全冲突升级，1月15日，中国驻刚集民主共和国大使馆发布刚果（金）安全形势通报。揭醒中国公民和企业撤离。 1/基价省动乱浩成市场对供应中断的担忧。 基本面情况 1 1 1 2 1 投资咨询号:Z0022425 桂 伶 从业资格号:F03114737 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 张 远 从业资格号:F03147334 新项目增量有限，存量项目抗动版发，银仍然面临严重的供应问题，基本面仍然强劲。佤邦在2026年初将面临生产原料不足、矿山生产困难的情况，预计年初缅甸月均产量仅维持至1000金 属फ左右，根据路透社，印尼或将2020年保生产配额设为60.000吨。基本符合预期，但短期RKAB仍在审批过程中，1-2月出口硕士维持低位: 据新华社消息。例果（金）北基[/省瓦利卡莱地区 发生山体滑坡，加剧供应担 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today's domestic commodity futures market shows a general upward trend, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly. Lithium carbonate rises over 7%, Shanghai tin over 5%, Shanghai gold over 3%, and synthetic rubber over 3%. Most black building materials decline, with glass and caustic soda falling over 2% [13]. - The US economy maintains a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continues to cool, and the Fed maintains a cautious wait - and - see attitude, with the interest - rate cut expectation postponed to June. In China, the consumer market in 2025 exceeded 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, and consumption in 2026 is expected to grow steadily [13]. - The scenario of no interest - rate cut in January is basically confirmed, and the first interest - rate cut by the Fed within the year is expected to be postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are still recommended [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 21, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price is 4722.8, with a daily increase of 0.54; the SSE 50 futures price is 3073.6, with a daily increase of 0.09; the CSI 500 futures price is 8371, with a daily increase of 1.71; the CSI 1000 futures price is 8231, with a daily increase of 1.57 [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures price is 102.43, with a daily decrease of 0.01; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures price is 105.88, with a daily increase of 0.01; the 10 - year Treasury bond futures price is 108.2, with a daily increase of 0.04; the 30 - year Treasury bond futures price is 112.25, with a daily increase of 0.75 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index is 98.5413, with a daily decrease of 0.51; the US dollar central parity rate is 6.9602, with a daily decrease of 38 [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is 1.4948, with a daily increase of 1.76; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield is 1.8326, with a daily decrease of 0.67; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield is 4.3, with an increase of 12 (no daily data provided) [2]. 3.2 Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 21, 2026, among various industries, non - ferrous metals have a daily increase of 2.91%, basic chemicals 1.08%, steel 1.06%, and so on. Industries with a decline include agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery with a daily decrease of 0.74%, defense and military industry 0.02%, and so on [5]. 3.3 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 20, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil price is 59.52, with a daily increase of 0.3; ICE Brent crude oil has a daily increase of 0.09; NYMEX natural gas price is 3.891, with a daily increase of 25.39; ICE UK natural gas price is 90.58, with a daily decrease of 1.48 [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price is 4769.1, with a daily increase of 3.78; COMEX silver price is 94.46, with a daily increase of 6.69 [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price is 12753.5, with a daily decrease of 1.64; LME aluminum price is 3107.5, with a daily decrease of 1.61; LME zinc price is 3175, with a daily decrease of 1.44 [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans price is 1053, with a daily decrease of 0.45; CBOT corn price is 424, with a daily decrease of 0.18; CBOT wheat price is 510.5, with a daily decrease of 1.45 [8]. 3.4 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Shipping**: The container shipping price on the European route is 1222.29, with a daily increase of 1.12 [11]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold price is 1092.94, with a daily increase of 3.06; silver price is 23112.13, with a daily increase of 0.31 [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Stainless steel price is 14707.87, with a daily increase of 2.36; aluminum price is 17119.84, with a daily decrease of 0.62 [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Fuel oil price is 2535.35, with a daily increase of 1.17; low - sulfur fuel oil price is 3083.07, with a daily increase of 0.32 [11]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar price is 3121.39, with a daily decrease of 0.48; glass price is 1046.05, with a daily decrease of 1.61 [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean price is 4309.61, with a daily decrease of 0.62; palm oil price is 8824.72, with a daily increase of 0.95 [11]. 3.5 Macro Highlights - **Domestic Market**: Domestic commodity futures market shows an upward trend, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly, and black building materials mostly falling [13]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintains a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation cools, consumption shows a "K - shaped" feature, industrial production rebounds unexpectedly, and the Fed postpones the interest - rate cut expectation to June [13]. - **Domestic Macro**: In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, and consumption in 2026 is expected to grow steadily [13]. - **Asset Views**: Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [13]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement awaits incremental funds, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward movement [14]. - **Options**: Option market liquidity is a concern for option - covered增厚 strategies, with a short - term judgment of volatility [14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are still disturbing factors in the bond market, and the long - end sentiment is weak, with a short - term judgment of volatility [14]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to show a volatile upward trend, affected by factors such as liquidity expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and the US fundamentals [14]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping on the European route is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments in the near - term, and the resumption of shipping in the far - term needs attention, with a short - term judgment of volatility [14]. - **Steel and Related Products**: Steel products, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to show a volatile trend, affected by factors such as inventory, production, and policies [14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to show a volatile trend, with factors such as inventory, supply, and demand affecting their prices [14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to show a volatile trend, affected by factors such as supply and demand, costs, and policies [16]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a mixed trend, with some products expected to show a volatile upward trend and some a volatile downward trend, affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policies [16].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-22 美国寒潮天然⽓连续第⼆天上涨，装置 故障苯⼄烯利润⼤幅扩张 原油价格延续震荡整理态势。哈萨克斯坦即将摆脱持续数周的出口限 制困境，因为一处位于黑海的重要石油装运设施的维修工作已接近尾声， 该国约90%的原油通过此路线运输，这将有助于缓解Brent高企的月差。IE A发布最新月报，报告上调2026年全球石油需求增速预期至93万桶/日，并 估测2026年供应将增长250万桶/日，IEA认为全球石油市场仍过剩。短期 需要关注极寒天气席卷美国对油气市场带来的影响，天然气价格连续两日 大幅拉升，取暖油需求也将环比走高，且需观察极端低温对油气生产的影 响。（以上新闻和数据均来自彭博终端） 板块逻辑： 化工链条中当前较为强势的品种仍是芳烃。苯乙烯自2025年12月19日 的低点已经上涨千点有余（按盘面主力合约计价），最开始是供给减量带 来估值的修复，接下来是出口有增加，改变了1-2月的供需平衡；当前我 们看到的是苯乙烯企业又有意外停车，河北一30万吨装置在1月20日突发 故障停车，产能占比约为1.3%，重启时间未定，这引发 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights. The supply of steel is disturbed, and the cost support is loosening. However, due to subsequent steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment, the further decline space of furnace material prices is limited, and the cost decline rhythm is gradually slowing down. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices. The sector still shows weak performance, and attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment rhythm of the furnace material end [2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream replenishment intensity. The resumption of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the replenishment expectation, and the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound at that time [6] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Iron Element - Supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply end is still expected to be disturbed by weather, and the pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remain to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel is rising, and the daily consumption is expected to decline. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] Carbon Element - Coke: There is still room for the cost end of coke to rebound. With the expectation of steel mill resumption and the demand for winter storage replenishment still existing, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase will still be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [3]. - Coking coal: The winter storage on the demand side is still in progress, and the output of coal mines on the supply side is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum. However, after the trading logic changes, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [3] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The cost push is relatively weak, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. The upward space of the futures price is limited, but the current futures price valuation is low. Under the support of high - cost, beware of the risk of excessive short - chasing [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to mainly follow the sector [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply is still expected to be disturbed, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views - Gold is expected to continue its short - term oscillatory and bullish trend, while silver may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, and both should watch out for Trump's TACO risk on geopolitical issues [1][2] - The medium - to long - term upward support logic for gold remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term bullish support for silver is still strong [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Due to the escalation of disputes between Europe and the US over Greenland, bond market volatility, and Poland's central bank's plan to increase gold purchases, the intraday gold price continued to rise and hit a new high. COMEX gold once reached $4891 per ounce, and Shanghai gold touched 1100 yuan per gram. The tense situation in Greenland and tariff threats continue to support the gold price. Trump's latest stance on Greenland has eased. The short - term bullish trend of gold is still supported, and attention should be paid to the progress of relevant US events [2] Silver - The intraday silver price fluctuated at a high level. COMEX silver fluctuated around $94 per ounce, and Shanghai silver was around 23,000 yuan per kilogram. Supported by the tense situation between Europe and the US over Greenland, the high volatility of silver, stable short - term lease rates at 4% - 6%, and the suspension of key mineral tariff increases are also having an impact. It is expected that the silver price will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [2] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.56%, 0.61%, 0.35%, and 0.20% respectively [45] Precious Metals Index - As of January 21, 2026, the precious metals index was 4531.41, with a daily increase of 2.20%, a 5 - day increase of 4.24%, a 1 - month increase of 18.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 18.49% [46]