市场情绪回暖,锡价强势上涨 中信期货研究所 有色与新材料团队 量新动态及原因 1月21日报价明显走强。收盘涨5.70%至418420元吨。锡价上涨的驱动主要两个：一是市场情绪的修复，近两日来，多数有色品种止跌企稳，对市场情绪带来提振：二是供应拉动的担忧, 近日刚果会安全冲突升级，1月15日，中国驻刚集民主共和国大使馆发布刚果（金）安全形势通报。揭醒中国公民和企业撤离。 1/基价省动乱浩成市场对供应中断的担忧。 基本面情况 1 1 1 2 1 投资咨询号:Z0022425 桂 伶 从业资格号:F03114737 杨 飞 从业资格号:F03108013 王美丹 从业资格号:F03141853 张 远 从业资格号:F03147334 新项目增量有限，存量项目抗动版发，银仍然面临严重的供应问题，基本面仍然强劲。佤邦在2026年初将面临生产原料不足、矿山生产困难的情况，预计年初缅甸月均产量仅维持至1000金 属फ左右，根据路透社，印尼或将2020年保生产配额设为60.000吨。基本符合预期，但短期RKAB仍在审批过程中，1-2月出口硕士维持低位: 据新华社消息。例果（金）北基[/省瓦利卡莱地区 发生山体滑坡，加剧供应担 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Today's domestic commodity futures market shows a general upward trend, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly. Lithium carbonate rises over 7%, Shanghai tin over 5%, Shanghai gold over 3%, and synthetic rubber over 3%. Most black building materials decline, with glass and caustic soda falling over 2% [13]. - The US economy maintains a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continues to cool, and the Fed maintains a cautious wait - and - see attitude, with the interest - rate cut expectation postponed to June. In China, the consumer market in 2025 exceeded 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, and consumption in 2026 is expected to grow steadily [13]. - The scenario of no interest - rate cut in January is basically confirmed, and the first interest - rate cut by the Fed within the year is expected to be postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are still recommended [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 21, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price is 4722.8, with a daily increase of 0.54; the SSE 50 futures price is 3073.6, with a daily increase of 0.09; the CSI 500 futures price is 8371, with a daily increase of 1.71; the CSI 1000 futures price is 8231, with a daily increase of 1.57 [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year Treasury bond futures price is 102.43, with a daily decrease of 0.01; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures price is 105.88, with a daily increase of 0.01; the 10 - year Treasury bond futures price is 108.2, with a daily increase of 0.04; the 30 - year Treasury bond futures price is 112.25, with a daily increase of 0.75 [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index is 98.5413, with a daily decrease of 0.51; the US dollar central parity rate is 6.9602, with a daily decrease of 38 [2]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate is 1.4948, with a daily increase of 1.76; the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield is 1.8326, with a daily decrease of 0.67; the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield is 4.3, with an increase of 12 (no daily data provided) [2]. 3.2 Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 21, 2026, among various industries, non - ferrous metals have a daily increase of 2.91%, basic chemicals 1.08%, steel 1.06%, and so on. Industries with a decline include agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery with a daily decrease of 0.74%, defense and military industry 0.02%, and so on [5]. 3.3 Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 20, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil price is 59.52, with a daily increase of 0.3; ICE Brent crude oil has a daily increase of 0.09; NYMEX natural gas price is 3.891, with a daily increase of 25.39; ICE UK natural gas price is 90.58, with a daily decrease of 1.48 [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold price is 4769.1, with a daily increase of 3.78; COMEX silver price is 94.46, with a daily increase of 6.69 [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper price is 12753.5, with a daily decrease of 1.64; LME aluminum price is 3107.5, with a daily decrease of 1.61; LME zinc price is 3175, with a daily decrease of 1.44 [8]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans price is 1053, with a daily decrease of 0.45; CBOT corn price is 424, with a daily decrease of 0.18; CBOT wheat price is 510.5, with a daily decrease of 1.45 [8]. 3.4 Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - **Shipping**: The container shipping price on the European route is 1222.29, with a daily increase of 1.12 [11]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold price is 1092.94, with a daily increase of 3.06; silver price is 23112.13, with a daily increase of 0.31 [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Stainless steel price is 14707.87, with a daily increase of 2.36; aluminum price is 17119.84, with a daily decrease of 0.62 [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Fuel oil price is 2535.35, with a daily increase of 1.17; low - sulfur fuel oil price is 3083.07, with a daily increase of 0.32 [11]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar price is 3121.39, with a daily decrease of 0.48; glass price is 1046.05, with a daily decrease of 1.61 [11]. - **Agricultural Products**: Soybean price is 4309.61, with a daily decrease of 0.62; palm oil price is 8824.72, with a daily increase of 0.95 [11]. 3.5 Macro Highlights - **Domestic Market**: Domestic commodity futures market shows an upward trend, with precious metals and non - ferrous metals rising strongly, and black building materials mostly falling [13]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintains a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation cools, consumption shows a "K - shaped" feature, industrial production rebounds unexpectedly, and the Fed postpones the interest - rate cut expectation to June [13]. - **Domestic Macro**: In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, growing by 3.7%, and consumption in 2026 is expected to grow steadily [13]. - **Asset Views**: Short - term risk assets may continue to adjust, while in the medium - term, long positions in stock indices, non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin), gold, and silver are recommended [13]. 3.6 Viewpoint Highlights - **Stock Index Futures**: The market is boosted by dual factors, but continuous upward movement awaits incremental funds, with a short - term judgment of volatile upward movement [14]. - **Options**: Option market liquidity is a concern for option - covered增厚 strategies, with a short - term judgment of volatility [14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: There are still disturbing factors in the bond market, and the long - end sentiment is weak, with a short - term judgment of volatility [14]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to show a volatile upward trend, affected by factors such as liquidity expectations, geopolitical conflicts, and the US fundamentals [14]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping on the European route is supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments in the near - term, and the resumption of shipping in the far - term needs attention, with a short - term judgment of volatility [14]. - **Steel and Related Products**: Steel products, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to show a volatile trend, affected by factors such as inventory, production, and policies [14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Non - ferrous metals are expected to show a volatile trend, with factors such as inventory, supply, and demand affecting their prices [14]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to show a volatile trend, affected by factors such as supply and demand, costs, and policies [16]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a mixed trend, with some products expected to show a volatile upward trend and some a volatile downward trend, affected by factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policies [16].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-01-22 美国寒潮天然⽓连续第⼆天上涨，装置 故障苯⼄烯利润⼤幅扩张 原油价格延续震荡整理态势。哈萨克斯坦即将摆脱持续数周的出口限 制困境，因为一处位于黑海的重要石油装运设施的维修工作已接近尾声， 该国约90%的原油通过此路线运输，这将有助于缓解Brent高企的月差。IE A发布最新月报，报告上调2026年全球石油需求增速预期至93万桶/日，并 估测2026年供应将增长250万桶/日，IEA认为全球石油市场仍过剩。短期 需要关注极寒天气席卷美国对油气市场带来的影响，天然气价格连续两日 大幅拉升，取暖油需求也将环比走高，且需观察极端低温对油气生产的影 响。（以上新闻和数据均来自彭博终端） 板块逻辑： 化工链条中当前较为强势的品种仍是芳烃。苯乙烯自2025年12月19日 的低点已经上涨千点有余（按盘面主力合约计价），最开始是供给减量带 来估值的修复，接下来是出口有增加，改变了1-2月的供需平衡；当前我 们看到的是苯乙烯企业又有意外停车，河北一30万吨装置在1月20日突发 故障停车，产能占比约为1.3%，重启时间未定，这引发 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming obvious, and the fundamentals lack highlights. The supply of steel is disturbed, and the cost support is loosening. However, due to subsequent steel mill resumption and winter storage replenishment, the further decline space of furnace material prices is limited, and the cost decline rhythm is gradually slowing down. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices. The sector still shows weak performance, and attention should be paid to the winter storage replenishment rhythm of the furnace material end [2]. - Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the downstream replenishment intensity. The resumption of steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the replenishment expectation, and the furnace material prices still have the expectation of a low - level rebound at that time [6] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Iron Element - Supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. The supply end is still expected to be disturbed by weather, and the pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The supply and demand on the real side remain to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel is rising, and the daily consumption is expected to decline. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished products [2] Carbon Element - Coke: There is still room for the cost end of coke to rebound. With the expectation of steel mill resumption and the demand for winter storage replenishment still existing, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase will still be implemented, and the futures price is expected to follow the coking coal [3]. - Coking coal: The winter storage on the demand side is still in progress, and the output of coal mines on the supply side is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum. However, after the trading logic changes, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals for the futures price is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [3] Alloys - Manganese silicon: The cost push is relatively weak, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. The upward space of the futures price is limited, but the current futures price valuation is low. Under the support of high - cost, beware of the risk of excessive short - chasing [3]. - Ferrosilicon: Currently, the supply and demand in the ferrosilicon market are both weak, and the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited. In the short term, the futures price is expected to mainly follow the sector [3] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: The supply is still expected to be disturbed, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. Otherwise, the price will rise [3]. - Soda ash: The overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided for the industry in the report Group 2: Core Views - Gold is expected to continue its short - term oscillatory and bullish trend, while silver may maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, and both should watch out for Trump's TACO risk on geopolitical issues [1][2] - The medium - to long - term upward support logic for gold remains unchanged, and the medium - to long - term bullish support for silver is still strong [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Due to the escalation of disputes between Europe and the US over Greenland, bond market volatility, and Poland's central bank's plan to increase gold purchases, the intraday gold price continued to rise and hit a new high. COMEX gold once reached $4891 per ounce, and Shanghai gold touched 1100 yuan per gram. The tense situation in Greenland and tariff threats continue to support the gold price. Trump's latest stance on Greenland has eased. The short - term bullish trend of gold is still supported, and attention should be paid to the progress of relevant US events [2] Silver - The intraday silver price fluctuated at a high level. COMEX silver fluctuated around $94 per ounce, and Shanghai silver was around 23,000 yuan per kilogram. Supported by the tense situation between Europe and the US over Greenland, the high volatility of silver, stable short - term lease rates at 4% - 6%, and the suspension of key mineral tariff increases are also having an impact. It is expected that the silver price will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [2] Commodity Index - The comprehensive index includes special indices such as the commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial products index, and PPI commodity index, with increases of 0.56%, 0.61%, 0.35%, and 0.20% respectively [45] Precious Metals Index - As of January 21, 2026, the precious metals index was 4531.41, with a daily increase of 2.20%, a 5 - day increase of 4.24%, a 1 - month increase of 18.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 18.49% [46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Due to supply disruptions and escalating geopolitical risks, platinum and palladium prices are expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 628.5 yuan/gram, with a 2.49% increase, and the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 485.8 yuan/gram, with a 0.21% increase [2]. - Platinum: Supply disruptions and rising geopolitical risks will cause platinum prices to continue their moderately strong and volatile trend in the short term. In the future, supply in South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, still faces risks such as power supply and extreme weather. Demand in the platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion, and the "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination will amplify the long - term price elasticity. Overall, platinum prices are expected to be moderately strong and volatile [3]. - Palladium: Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to be loose, short - term spot shortages support prices. The price is expected to remain in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term, and the price bottom has certain support with the Fed's re - entry into the interest - rate cut cycle [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Current Situation**: As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 628.5 yuan/gram, with a 2.49% increase [2]. - **Logic**: South African floods may affect production and supply. Geopolitical and trade frictions are intensifying, and factors such as the nomination of the new Fed chair and US tariff expectations on platinum and palladium are key market influencers. In the short term, platinum prices may continue their moderately strong and volatile trend, and investors can consider low - buying opportunities. In the future, South African supply faces power and weather risks, while demand in the platinum market is expanding [3]. - **Outlook**: Moderately strong and volatile. With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro - expectations, platinum prices are expected to be moderately strong and volatile [3]. Palladium - **Current Situation**: As of January 21, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 485.8 yuan/gram, with a 0.21% increase [2]. - **Logic**: The market's previous expectation of a 50% tariff on palladium from the US did not materialize, leading to a price correction. However, the US Department of Commerce's report on Russian - imported palladium is still pending, and the spot shortage continues to support prices. In the short term, palladium prices may remain in a wide - range volatile pattern, and investors are advised to trade cautiously and consider low - buying opportunities. Palladium demand shows significant structural pressure [4]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Short - term spot shortages support palladium prices, but in the medium - to - long - term, weak fundamentals and low investment attributes will suppress prices [4]. Index Information - **Commodity Index**: On January 21, 2026, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index were 2427.72 (+0.56%), 2790.52 (+0.61%), and 2316.66 (+0.35%) respectively [50]. - **Plate Index**: On January 21, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2810.63, with a daily increase of 0.61%, a 5 - day decrease of 1.54%, a 1 - month increase of 8.36%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.64% [52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the stock index futures market, the switching speed of strong sectors is relatively fast. Although the market is expected to rise before the Two Sessions, caution is needed regarding the upward rate, and the subsequent market trend will be upward with fluctuations. The increasing uncertainty in global liquidity, regulatory cooling, and escalating geopolitical risks affect the upward rate of A-shares. In this uncertain environment, the allocation value of non-ferrous metals and precious metals is enhanced, which is beneficial for the inflation expectation and indirectly boosts the value of CSI 500 [1][6]. - In the stock index options market, the trading volume of most varieties has declined. The hedging sentiment in the market may have slowed down. It is recommended to adopt a hedging strategy by selling call options on the basis of an equity bottom position [2][6]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the demand for medium - and long - term bonds has improved, and the yield curve has flattened. The sentiment in the medium - and long - term bond market has continued to recover. In the short term, the end of the tax period and the possible lower - than - planned issuance of local bonds in January may support the performance of ultra - long - term bonds, but the change in market risk preference needs to be continuously monitored [2][7]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: The view is that the switching speed of strong sectors is fast. The logic is that the market sentiment has eased, but the rapid rotation of strong sectors affects the profit - making effect, and the market volume has shrunk. The outlook is oscillating and slightly bullish, and the operation suggestion is to hold IC [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The view is to focus on hedging defense. The logic is that the trading volume has declined, and the hedging sentiment has slowed down. The outlook is oscillating, and the operation suggestion is hedging [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The view is that the demand for medium - and long - term bonds has improved, and the curve has flattened. The logic is that the sentiment in the medium - and long - term bond market has recovered due to factors such as the central bank's reverse - repurchase net injection, good issuance of 7Y treasury bonds, and reduced redemption pressure of bond funds. The outlook is oscillating. Operation suggestions include trend strategy (oscillating), hedging strategy (pay attention to short - hedging at low basis), basis strategy (pay attention to TL positive arbitrage opportunities), and curve strategy (the curve may flatten first and then steepen) [7]. 2. Derivatives Market Monitoring - **Stock Index Futures Data**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Stock Index Options Data**: No specific content is provided in the given text. - **Treasury Bond Futures Data**: No specific content is provided in the given text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of oilseeds such as soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively abundant. Palm oil has a high annual output and is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend. The market is currently intertwined with multiple long and short factors, but positive expectations and a warming macro - atmosphere are driving the continuous rebound of the oil market. It is recommended to consider staged buy - hedging after price corrections and a long - palm - oil and short - rapeseed - oil arbitrage strategy [2][5] - For protein meal, the international soybean supply is expected to increase, and the US soybean is expected to fluctuate. In the domestic market, the price of soybean meal is expected to remain firm before the Spring Festival, but there is a need to be vigilant against the weakening of futures prices due to the repair of discounts under high - profit conditions. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal and fluctuate weakly [7] - The corn market is in a state of game between the policy ceiling and the demand floor, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The market is affected by supply pressure, downstream demand, and policy grain auctions [10] - The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the price continues to decline. In the short term, there is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is expected that the pig cycle will gradually bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [12][13] - The natural rubber market has effective short - term bottom support, and the market rebounds slightly. In the medium term, the idea of buying on dips is maintained, and the short - term market may return to a wide - range fluctuation [15] - The synthetic rubber market is driven by the sector's performance and the market rebounds. In the short term, there is pressure above and may require adjustment, while in the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [17] - The cotton price is in an adjustment period in the short term, but in the long - term, based on the expected tight balance sheet and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly and it is recommended to buy on dips [18] - The sugar price continues to adjust downward. Due to the expected oversupply in the new sugar - making season globally, the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and a strategy of shorting on rebounds is maintained [18] - The pulp futures continue to move sideways, and the spot price slowly declines. Due to seasonal weakening of demand and abundant liquidity of softwood pulp, the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [19] - The double - offset paper market maintains a low - level fluctuation. With the end of publishing orders and weak social demand, the double - offset paper is expected to fluctuate weakly [21] - The log market rebounds from a low valuation. After the negative factors in the delivery aspect are digested and the spot price rises, the log market is expected to operate within a range in the short term [22][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Palm oil increases in position and rises, leading the oil market [1][5] - **Logic**: Palm oil is in the production - reduction stage, with good export performance. From January 1 - 20, the production in Malaysia decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, and the export volume from January 1 - 20 increased by 8.6% - 11.4% month - on - month. The US soybean oil is affected by arbitrage unlocking in the short term, but the upcoming clarification of US biofuel policies and rising international oil prices limit its decline. The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to become more abundant in the future, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][5] - **Outlook**: Soybean oil fluctuates, palm oil fluctuates, and rapeseed oil fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to consider staged buy - hedging after price corrections and a long - palm - oil and short - rapeseed - oil arbitrage strategy [2][5] 3.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot price drops slightly, and the market fluctuates at a low level [7] - **Logic**: Internationally, the Argentine soybean sowing is nearly complete, and the US soybean demand and压榨 performance are strong. China has purchased a large amount of US soybeans, and the overseas soybean supply is expected to increase. Domestically, the spot price of soybean meal drops slightly, and the low - priced rapeseed meal attracts downstream purchases, supporting the market [7] - **Outlook**: The US soybean, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal all fluctuate. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal and fluctuate weakly [7] 3.3. Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The game between the policy ceiling and the demand floor continues, and the market fluctuates [10] - **Logic**: The supply in the Northeast is tight, while the supply in North China increases after the weather improves. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the downstream feed enterprises maintain a stable inventory, while the deep - processing enterprises have low inventory and need to stock up before the Spring Festival. Policy grain auctions will gradually stabilize prices [10] - **Outlook**: The market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the release of supply pressure and downstream stocking [10][11] 3.4. Live Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply is abundant, and the price continues to decline [11] - **Logic**: In the short term, the early - January slaughter progress is slow, and there may be early sales at the end of January. In the medium term, the supply will remain excessive until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand is slightly increasing, and the inventory is slightly accumulating [12] - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates weakly. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is recommended to consider short - hedging opportunities for the industry in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to bottom out in the second half of 2026 [13] 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom support is effective, and the market rebounds slightly [15] - **Logic**: Affected by the warming of the commodity market and the strong performance of synthetic rubber, the natural rubber price rebounds. However, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the price increase is mainly driven by macro factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weak after the price rise [15] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the market is not expected to break through the previous high unilaterally. The medium - term idea of buying on dips is maintained, and the short - term market may return to a wide - range fluctuation [15] 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Driven by the sector's performance, the market rebounds and rises [16][17] - **Logic**: The overall risk preference of the commodity market rebounds, and some chemical products rise due to equipment problems. The raw material supply is tight, and the mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged. The price of butadiene has been rising recently [17] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is short - term pressure. In the medium term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [17] 3.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price continues to adjust, and the long - term logic remains unchanged [18] - **Logic**: In the short term, after the positive policy expectations are realized, the cotton price enters an adjustment period due to factors such as reduced positions and potential increases in imports. In the long term, the cotton balance sheet is expected to be tight, and the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, supporting the price. The current consumption is good, and the downstream is stocking up before the Spring Festival [18] - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips during the adjustment period [18] 3.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price continues to adjust downward [18] - **Logic**: Globally, the 25/26 sugar - making season is expected to be in surplus, with increased production in multiple countries. The domestic supply is also increasing. The price has already reflected the surplus expectation to a large extent, and the downward space is narrowing [18] - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates weakly. A strategy of shorting on rebounds is maintained [18] 3.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The futures continue to move sideways, and the spot price slowly declines [19] - **Logic**: The fundamentals of pulp have not changed significantly. The increase in import costs is a positive factor, while the seasonal weakening of demand, abundant spot liquidity, and the lack of pre - holiday stocking are negative factors. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a short - term range [19] - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates weakly due to the weakening of demand and the abundant supply of softwood pulp [19] 3.10. Double - Offset Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - offset paper maintains a low - level fluctuation [21] - **Logic**: The market is basically stable, with some production lines in the South China region shutting down, but the inventory pressure of some paper mills still exists. The publishing orders are coming to an end, and the social demand is weak, making it difficult for paper mills to raise prices [21] - **Outlook**: The market fluctuates weakly with the end of publishing orders and the weak social demand [21] 3.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The log rebounds from a low valuation [22] - **Logic**: The futures contract rebounds after hitting the bottom, and the macro - sentiment warms up. The price is in the low - valuation area, and the downward space is limited. The negative factors in the delivery aspect are gradually digested, and the spot price in the Jiangsu market rises due to tight supply [22] - **Outlook**: The market is expected to operate within a range in the short term after the negative factors in the delivery aspect are digested and the spot price rises [22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On January 21, most equity index futures and CGB futures traded higher, while commodities showed mixed performance. Lithium carbonate, tin, and gold led the rises, while glass, sodium hydroxide, and coking coal led the declines [11][12][13] - The U.S. Trade Representative hopes to launch a new round of trade negotiations with China [40][41] - Shanghai plans to gradually include qualified non - ferrous metal futures and options varieties in the scope of opening - up to strengthen the international influence of non - ferrous metal bulk commodities [42][43][45] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 21, in equity index futures, IC rose 1.9% and IH rose 1.7%; in CGB futures, TL rose 0.75% and TS dropped 0.01%. In commodity futures, lithium carbonate rose 7.3% with open interest increasing 3.0% month - on - month, tin gained 5.8% with open interest decreasing 3.6% month - on - month, and gold advanced 3.7% with open interest increasing 11.5% month - on - month. The top three decliners were glass (down 2.3% with open interest increasing 2.6% month - on - month), sodium hydroxide (down 2.0% with open interest increasing 2.7% month - on - month), and coking coal (down 1.8% with open interest decreasing 3.2% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise - **Gold**: On January 21, gold rose 3.7% to 1,092.30 yuan/g. Driven by Greenland - related tensions and tariff threats on the 20th, both domestic and international gold prices surged, with COMEX gold briefly breaking through $4,750. Poland's plan to buy 150 tons of gold also supported the price. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust gold futures' price limit ranges and trading margin requirements from January 22. Short - term, watch the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's tariff case, Greenland - related developments, and the new Federal Reserve Chair nomination [17][19][22] - **Platinum**: On January 21, platinum rose 2.5% to 628.50 yuan/g. Heavy rainfall in South Africa may impact supply, and geopolitical tensions and trade frictions have flared up. The nomination of the new Federal Reserve Chair and U.S. tariffs on platinum and palladium are also factors. Short - term, platinum prices may fluctuate. In the future, supply risks from South Africa remain, and demand is in a structural expansion phase [25][26][28] 1.3 Daily Drop - **Silver**: On January 21, silver dropped 0.1% to 23,131 yuan/kg. After hitting record highs intraday, silver prices retreated, and short - term high - level volatility risks increased. Besides the boost from the 20th's events, downward pressures such as high volatility, low short - term lease rates, and tariff suspension on critical minerals are building up. The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust silver futures' price limit ranges and trading margin requirements from January 22 [34][35][36] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The U.S. Trade Representative Greer stated that the U.S. hopes to launch another potential round of trade negotiations with China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson suggested referring the question to the competent Chinese authorities [40][41] 2.2 Industry News - Shanghai issued an action plan to strengthen futures - spot market linkage and enhance the competitiveness of non - ferrous metal bulk commodities. It aims to expand the high - level institutional opening - up of the non - ferrous metal futures market, gradually include qualified varieties in the scope of opening - up, and improve relevant business rules. It also encourages exploration of cross - border delivery mechanism innovation to strengthen the international influence of non - ferrous metal bulk commodities and the "Shanghai Price" [42][43][45]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of oil and gas are rising, and due to the cold snap, coal prices are also strong, providing cost support for chemicals. Chemicals also have some industry benefits. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of spring maintenance, and the market anticipates the possible "Golden March and Silver April" consumption peak after the Spring Festival. The futures prices have limited adjustment space and will generally fluctuate [2]. - Crude oil still has the possibility of geopolitical risks, and chemicals should be treated with a fluctuating mindset [3]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and oil prices continue to oscillate. Supply pressure persists, but geopolitical premium may fluctuate. It should be viewed as oscillating in the short - term [3][6]. - **Main Logic**: Global on - land crude oil inventories have been accumulating, overseas refined oil inventories are under pressure, and the supply surplus pattern remains. The shutdown of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oilfield supports the Western market. Geopolitics is the short - term focus, and previous military actions between Iran and Israel had little impact on oil supply. If relevant tail risks materialize, oil prices are likely to rise and then fall. If the Iranian situation eases, oil prices may approach the lower limit of the oscillation range [6]. Asphalt - **View**: The high valuation of asphalt is gradually being revised downward, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - term [3][6][7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1, and the partial lifting of sanctions on Venezuela will increase its oil production and exports. The current asphalt market is still trading the reduction of discounts due to the US selling Venezuelan oil at the current price, which supports asphalt costs. However, it will lead to abundant long - term supply, which is a major negative for asphalt. The US - Iran situation has not further escalated, and the decline in crude oil has led to the downward revision of asphalt's high valuation. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and inventory accumulation pressure is high [6]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has declined, and it is expected to oscillate. Venezuelan oil production growth expectations will long - term pressure high - sulfur fuel oil, and short - term attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [3][7]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases, and the US is helping Venezuela increase oil production, leading to a strong expectation of a surge in heavy - oil supply, which pressures high - sulfur fuel oil in the long - term. The US - Iran situation has temporarily cooled, and the geopolitical premium of fuel oil has significantly declined. Although Iraq may resume fuel - oil power generation in the short - term, high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the replacement of fuel - oil power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics in the Middle East are long - term negatives for high - sulfur fuel oil. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are showing a cooling trend, but the expansion of the asphalt - fuel oil spread may increase the processing demand for fuel oil [7]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates widely and is expected to oscillate. It is affected by the substitution of green fuels and high - sulfur fuels, with limited demand space, but its current valuation is low and it follows crude - oil fluctuations [3][9]. - **Main Logic**: The futures price of low - sulfur fuel oil follows crude - oil fluctuations. The expected release of Venezuelan oil has led to an increase in the Brent - Dubai crude oil spread and a rebound in the low - high sulfur spread. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong product attributes and is supported. However, it faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage over refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, resulting in a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand [9]. PX - **View**: The bottom of polyester load is relatively confirmed, and PX's profitability has stabilized. In the short - term, PX prices will seek upward drivers without new negatives, and PXN is expected to remain in the range of [300, 350] dollars/ton [10][11]. - **Main Logic**: Crude - oil prices oscillate in a range, naphtha remains stagnant, and PX strengthened significantly in the afternoon. Macroeconomic利好 policies were successively introduced, boosting market sentiment. There were rumors of individual factories' far - month maintenance plans, which stimulated the market. The bottom of polyester's new - year start - up is confirmed, and PTA's good profitability supports the upstream, so PX's profitability has stabilized after half a month of correction [11]. PTA - **View**: Funds have flowed in again, and TA's profit has expanded. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, and the TA05 - 09 maintains a positive - spread logic [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices are tepid, the commodity - market sentiment is positive, and TA rose rapidly in the afternoon with a large increase in positions and inflow of funds. Fundamentally, the low point of downstream polyester load is confirmed, and demand has bottomed out. Without new negatives, prices are expected to be warm in the short - term. With the rapid rise of futures prices, the basis is expected to be weak overall [12]. Pure Benzene - **View**: Port de - stocking is obvious, and pure benzene oscillates strongly. Short - term high inventory may limit the increase, but there will be a quarterly improvement [13][15]. - **Main Logic**: The East - China pure - benzene port has de - stocked for the first time in two months. Low - price pure benzene and strong downstream styrene have created a market waiting for a rise. Downstream profit - locking has pushed up the price of pure benzene. There is a possibility of the US canceling the 15% tariff on South Korean pure benzene. In the chemical industry, pure benzene, with a relatively low valuation, has become a long - position choice for funds [15]. Styrene - **View**: Supply and demand are tight, and styrene has been oscillating strongly recently. If there is no unexpected significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will continue to oscillate strongly in the short - term under the repeated stimulation of exports [16]. - **Main Logic**: The strength of styrene comes from export disturbances, geopolitical disturbances leading to rising crude - oil prices, and a positive overall commodity atmosphere. The expected inventory accumulation in January has been reversed, and the non - integrated device profit is relatively high. Before the restart of Sinochem Quanzhou in late January, the supply - demand pattern is favorable [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The main - port inventory continues to accumulate, and ethylene glycol is in a difficult situation. In the short - term, prices will remain in a range, and the long - term inventory - accumulation pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [17][18]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas imports are still large, and there is obvious seasonal inventory - accumulation pressure. Domestic supply is shrinking slowly, some port inventories are tight, and polyester factories are gradually reducing production, making it difficult to reverse the weak pattern [18]. Short - Fiber - **View**: Short - fiber moderately follows the rise, and profits are compressed. Prices will follow the upstream for adjustment, and processing fees are under some pressure [19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw materials have risen sharply, and short - fiber sales have improved slightly. However, due to the strong short - term cost, short - fiber profits are under pressure, and the absolute price is expected to moderately follow the rise [20]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **View**: Supply continues to compress, and processing fees have a repair expectation. The absolute value will follow the raw materials, and the support for processing fees at the bottom has increased [21]. - **Main Logic**: Upstream polyester raw materials rose in the afternoon, and polyester bottle - chips followed the cost increase. The trading atmosphere was good, and the price of polyester bottle - chips will mainly follow the upstream in the short - term, with support for processing fees at the bottom [21]. Methanol - **View**: The inland area remains weak, and there is a long - short game in the coastal area. Methanol will oscillate in a range in the short - term [24]. - **Main Logic**: The inland market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and producers are actively reducing prices to clear inventory. Coastal port high - inventory pressure is significant, and the shutdown of the Zhejiang Xingxing device has further weakened the MTO external - procurement demand. Short - term negatives are stronger than the positives of overseas macro uncertainties [24]. Urea - **View**: New orders at low prices have improved, and urea has stabilized and oscillated. The market has no substantial guiding information, and the trading rhythm is adjusted according to prices. In the short - term, the fundamentals have little change, and it will oscillate [25]. - **Main Logic**: The daily production of urea remains at a high level, and the supply of goods is sufficient. The demand for compound fertilizers and other industries is relatively rigid, and the agricultural demand in the Jiangsu and Anhui regions is also advancing. After several days of price decline, new orders at low prices have improved, and the market has temporarily stabilized [25]. LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: Maintenance has slightly decreased, and plastic will oscillate. In the short - term, it will oscillate [29]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. Fundamentally, the pressure has been released, and after the rebound, the profits of various production methods have been repaired. Maintenance has decreased recently, and demand is in the off - season. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and the improvement in inventory and downstream confidence, the downside space is limited [29]. PP - **View**: Maintenance and macro - expectations still provide support, and PP should be viewed as oscillating. It will oscillate in the short - term [30]. - **Main Logic**: Oil prices oscillate, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. The low production in Kazakhstan supports the Western market, and geopolitics is the short - term focus. The profits of various PP production methods have been repaired, and the upside space is limited. The downstream is in the off - season, and trading volume has decreased recently. However, considering the expected macro - consumption policy support and short - term maintenance support, the downside space is limited [30]. PL - **View**: Supply has tightened, and PL will oscillate. It will oscillate in the short - term [31]. - **Main Logic**: The PDH maintenance expectation still provides support. Individual domestic devices have stopped, and the market supply has tightened again. However, downstream follow - up is weak, suppressing the overall buying rhythm. Enterprises mainly maintain stable prices for sales, and the actual - order price range has little change. Short - term powder profits fluctuate slightly, and downstream demand support in the off - season is limited [31]. PVC - **View**: "Rushing for exports" provides support, and the downside space should be carefully considered. It is expected to oscillate. The cancellation of export tax - refunds and the expected increase in the external - market price may promote short - term export - rushing, but in the long - term, the fundamentals are still under pressure, and the market will be oscillating [34]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the export tax - refund for PVC will be cancelled on April 1st. At the micro - level, short - term "rushing for exports" may promote de - stocking, but long - term supply - demand expectations are still under pressure. Profits have improved, boosting the production willingness of marginal enterprises. Downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and restocking willingness is poor. Upstream price increases are not conducive to export orders, and the sustainability of this week's export orders needs to be observed. The supply of calcium carbide has decreased while demand has increased, and its price may be boosted. The supply - demand of caustic soda is weak, and its profit is squeezed, and the price is under pressure [34]. Caustic Soda - **View**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and it is running weakly. Inventory pressure is large, and with stable costs, profits may still be squeezed, and the market will run weakly [35]. - **Main Logic**: The weak reality of caustic soda continues, and inventory is still accumulating. Alumina marginal - device profits are poor, and production cuts may be slow. Weiqiao's caustic - soda inventory is high, and the purchase price has been lowered again. The commissioning of 4.8 million tons of alumina in Guangxi in Q1 2026 will marginally boost caustic - soda demand. Non - aluminum start - up is weakening, and the restocking willingness of the middle and lower reaches is not high. Upstream start - up has changed little, and caustic - soda production remains at a historical high. The "rushing for exports" of epichlorohydrin supports the price of liquid chlorine, and the short - term cost of caustic soda may be stable [35]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are given, including the latest values and changes [37]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [38]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Not detailed in the content, only the variety names are listed. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index is 2414.16, down 0.15%. The commodity 20 index is 2773.48, down 0.23%. The industrial - products index is 2308.47, down 0.34% [281]. - **Energy Index**: On January 20, 2026, the energy index was 1099.40, with a daily decline of 0.37%, a 5 - day decline of 2.59%, a 1 - month increase of 2.61%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.18% [283].