投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-23 ⾦价⾼位盘整，银价震荡偏强运⾏ 万得数据显⽰，⽇内⾦价⾼位企稳，银价震荡偏强运⾏。⼀⽅⾯，据财联 社报道，1⽉21⽇特朗普在达沃斯论坛上撤回了对欧洲⼋国关税威胁、并 释放格陵兰岛谈判信号，避险情绪降温；另⼀⽅⾯，22⽇晚公布的美国第 三季度经济数据稳健、通胀稳定。此外，据央视财经报道，世界⽩银协会 最新发布的⼀份报告显⽰，⽩银供需趋紧、库存枯竭，对短线银价形成⼀ 定⽀撑。短线来看，格陵兰岛问题上⻛险并未彻底解除，谈判仍存在反复 可能，市场仍保持谨慎。短线⻩⾦下⾏空间或暂时受到限制、中⻓期震荡 偏强格局不改；⽩银⽅⾯，短线⽩银或⾼位震荡运⾏、波动或放⼤，警惕 格陵兰岛问题上美国⽴场反复⻛险。 黄金观点：短线或延续震荡偏强格局，警惕格陵兰岛问题上美国立场 反复风险 逻辑：万得数据显示，日内海内外金价均高位企稳运行，或主要缘于 特朗普在达沃斯论坛上的表态宣布放弃对八个欧洲国家追加关税、并 提及格陵兰岛问题可能存在协议框架，推动短线市场避险情绪减弱。 万得数据显示，21日公布的美国第三季度经济数据保持韧性，其中第 三季度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cold wave has pushed up natural gas prices, with US natural gas futures soaring to their highest level since 2022, and the HH natural gas price is expected to set a record for the largest weekly increase since 1990. The cold wave may disrupt natural gas production in southern US and increase demand, while its impact on shale oil production is expected to be limited [1]. - Crude oil prices remain stable, natural gas prices rise, and chemical product prices rebounded significantly on Thursday. The chemical industry chain is relatively dull, with the ethane - cracking ethylene plant and US propane prices being positively affected. The prices of PTA and styrene in the aromatic hydrocarbon sector are supported by market expectations of profit expansion in the chemical industry chain, but considering the large idle capacity of most chemical products, the probability of continuous profit expansion is low [1]. - Overall, the energy and chemical market is expected to fluctuate, with crude oil still facing geopolitical risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, with high inventories of crude oil and refined products in the US. The impact of the cold wave and supply disruptions in Kazakhstan are temporary, and future price support depends on geopolitical factors. The outlook is for a volatile market [7]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt futures has risen with the strength of crude oil. However, the supply of Venezuelan oil may increase in the long - term, which will be a major negative factor. Currently, asphalt is overvalued, and its medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline. The outlook is for a volatile market [7][8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is an expectation of a significant increase in heavy oil supply, which will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. Although the geopolitical premium has returned, the high floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region and the substitution of fuel oil by natural gas and photovoltaic energy are long - term negative factors. The outlook is for a volatile market [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The sharp increase in natural gas prices may support low - sulfur fuel oil. However, it faces challenges such as a decline in shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and high - sulfur fuel oil. Currently, its valuation is low, and it is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. The outlook is for a volatile market [10]. - **PX**: Driven by market sentiment, PX prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term, but its own structural weakness restricts its upward space. PXN is expected to range between $300 - 350 per ton [11]. - **PTA**: Due to increased capital attention, PTA prices have risen significantly. Although the supply - demand pattern is expected to accumulate inventory, the processing fee has improved, and it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: Factors such as port destocking, downstream profit - locking, potential tariff cancellation, and the need for a price increase in the aromatic hydrocarbon sector have led to a slightly stronger and volatile trend in pure benzene prices [13][14]. - **Styrene**: Export disruptions, geopolitical factors, and the overall warm commodity atmosphere have led to a short - term strong and volatile trend in styrene prices. If there is no unexpected significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, this trend will continue [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by capital and the cold wave, ethylene glycol prices have rebounded with reduced positions. Although there is seasonal inventory accumulation pressure, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [15][17]. - **Short - Fiber**: Driven by cost and market sentiment, short - fiber prices have strengthened, and downstream replenishment has increased. The price is expected to follow the upstream trend with slightly pressured processing fees [19]. - **Polyester Bottle Chips**: The resonance of cost and improved supply - demand has led to profit expansion. The price is expected to fluctuate with raw materials, and the support for the processing fee has increased [21]. - **Methanol**: The inland market is weak, and the coastal market has both long and short factors. Methanol is expected to fluctuate within a range [23]. - **Urea**: With good new order transactions at low prices, urea prices have stabilized and are expected to fluctuate. The market is currently in a stalemate [24]. - **LLDPE**: The cold wave in the US and the strong chemical market sentiment have driven the price rebound, but the upward space may be limited. The short - term outlook is for a volatile market [28]. - **PP**: Driven by the chemical market sentiment, PP prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of profit changes on maintenance plans [29]. - **PL**: Supply has tightened, and PL prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [30]. - **PVC**: Short - term "export rush" may support PVC prices, but the long - term supply - demand outlook is under pressure. The price is expected to be volatile [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: With low valuation and weak expectations, caustic soda prices are expected to be weak and volatile [33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent (M1 - M2: 0.71, unchanged), Dubai (M1 - M2: 0.36, - 0.02), etc. [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities, for example, asphalt (basis: - 162, change: - 75, warehouse receipts: 45820 tons) [35]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are various inter - variety spread values and changes, like 1 - month PP - 3MA (- 358, + 10), 1 - month TA - EG (1630, + 180), etc. [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report also provides basis and spread monitoring for various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not detailed here [37][49][61]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index, and sector index all showed certain increases on January 22, 2026. For example, the commodity index increased by 0.69% to 2444.59, the energy index increased by 1.46% to 1124.89, etc. [276][277].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, there have been accidents in some steel mills, and environmental protection and production restrictions still exist, causing disturbances on the supply side. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment, the prices of furnace materials have stabilized, and there is support at the cost end. However, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector during the off - season is becoming more apparent, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the upside space of the market is limited. The prices of glass and soda ash have risen from low levels, but the oversupply situation continues to suppress the market prices [1][2]. - In general, the fundamentals during the off - season are lackluster. Before the Spring Festival, continue to pay attention to the replenishment intensity of downstream enterprises. At the same time, the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to further boost the replenishment expectation, and the prices of furnace materials still have the expectation of a rebound from low levels. Pay attention to the disturbances of macro - policies [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing. There are still expectations of disturbances on the supply side due to weather. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price. The current supply and demand on both sides need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of scrap steel has recovered, and the daily consumption is expected to decline. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished product [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - For coke, the cost end still has room for a rebound, and there are still expectations of steel mill production resumption and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten, the spot price increase will still be implemented, and the market is expected to follow coking coal. For coking coal, the winter storage on the demand side is still ongoing, and the production of coal mines is expected to decline as the holiday approaches. The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, and the spot price still has upward momentum, but the bullish drive of the fundamentals is limited after the trading logic changes, and it is expected to oscillate [2]. 3.3 Alloys - For ferromanganese - silicon, the cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and the market price is under pressure above; however, the current futures price has fallen to a low - level range, and the space for further decline is limited. It is expected that the price will mainly operate at a low level around the cost valuation. For ferrosilicon, the current supply and demand in the market are both weak, the fundamental contradictions are relatively limited, and it is expected that the futures price will mainly follow the sector in the short term [3]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - For glass, there are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. For soda ash, the overall supply and demand are still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3]. 3.5 Steel - The spot market trading is weak. The profitability of steel mills continues to improve. The iron and steel production has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable month - on - month. The demand is seasonally weak, the inventory accumulation pressure in the off - season is obvious, and the fundamental contradictions are slowly accumulating. The supply side is disturbed, the cost side has support, but the upside of the market is under pressure. Pay attention to the winter storage and replenishment rhythm of the furnace material end [8]. 3.6 Iron Ore - Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period have also declined. The supply side may be disturbed due to weather. The iron and steel production has increased slightly month - on - month, the steel mills' replenishment is in progress, but the enthusiasm is still weak. The port inventory continues to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. The supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are increasing, and the pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the price. The current supply and demand need to be verified, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [8][9]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - The supply has recovered significantly, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and the spot price is expected to follow the finished product [10]. 3.8 Coke - The supply has slightly increased, the demand has recovered slightly, and the inventory has increased steadily. The cost end still has room for a small rebound, the supply - demand structure may tighten, the spot price increase will be implemented, and the market is expected to follow coking coal [12]. 3.9 Coking Coal - The domestic supply is stable, and the imported Mongolian coal has increased. The winter storage of coking enterprises is in progress, and the upstream inventory is being digested. The downstream inventory is gradually in place, and the spot market sentiment has cooled. The demand side's winter storage is still ongoing, the supply is expected to decline, the fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, the spot price still has a small upward momentum, but the bullish drive of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13]. 3.10 Glass - The macro is neutral. The supply is expected to decline in the long run, but it is difficult to have a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The downstream demand is weak, and the large inventory in the middle reaches suppresses the valuation. The supply may be disturbed, the current supply and demand are in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate weakly if there is no more cold repair before the end of the year; otherwise, the price will rise [13]. 3.11 Soda Ash - The macro is neutral. The supply has increased, the demand is weak, and the overall supply and demand are in surplus. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long run, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will decline [14][16]. 3.12 Ferromanganese - Silicon - The black sector is trending warmer, and the futures price of the main contract is moving stronger. The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand pattern is loose, the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, and the price is under pressure above. However, the current price has fallen to a low - level range, and it is expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation. Pay attention to the adjustment of raw material prices and the production control efforts of manufacturers [15][16][18]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon - The supply and demand contradictions are limited, and the futures price of the main contract is following the sector to oscillate stronger. The cost is at a relatively high level and supports the price bottom. The supply and demand are both weak, the market trading activity is poor, and the futures price is expected to follow the black sector in the short term. Pay attention to the adjustment of blue carbon prices and settlement electricity prices and the production control trends in the main production areas [16][17]. 3.14 Commodity Index - On January 22, 2026, the comprehensive index, the special index (including the commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial product index, and the PPI commodity index) all showed an upward trend. The steel industry chain index increased by 0.24% on the day, decreased by 1.81% in the past 5 days, increased by 0.03% in the past month, and increased by 0.05% since the beginning of the year [103][104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation continues to cool, and consumption shows a "K-shaped" characteristic [14]. - In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, with service retail sales growing faster. In 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - In the short term, risk assets may continue to adjust, but in the medium term, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, non - ferrous metals, gold, and silver [14]. Summary by Directory Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 22, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4719.4, down 0.26; the SSE 50 futures price was 3061.2, down 0.61; the CSI 500 futures price was 8400, up 0.25; the CSI 1000 futures price was 8292.6, up 0.56 [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures price was 102.408, down 0.02; the 5 - year was 105.835, down 0.04; the 10 - year was 108.15, down 0.04; the 30 - year was 112.17, down 0.03 [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 98.7693, up 0.23; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.9646, down 57 pips [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate was 1.4952%, up 0.04%; the 10 - year Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.8312%, down 0.14 bp; the 10 - year US treasury bond yield was 4.26%, down 4 bp [3]. Popular Industry Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, industries such as national defense and military industry, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals had relatively large daily increases, while industries such as food and beverage, non - bank finance, and banking had declines [6]. Overseas Commodity Fluctuations - **Energy**: On January 21, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at $59.52, up 0.3%; ICE Brent crude was at $64.62, up 0.67%; NYMEX natural gas was at $3.891, up 25.39%; ICE UK natural gas was at $105.29, up 12.07% [9]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was at $4769.1, up 3.78%; COMEX silver was at $94.46, up 6.69% [9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was at $12810, up 0.44%; LME aluminum was at $3115, up 0.24%; LME zinc was at $3175, up 0.06% [9]. - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans were at $1053, down 0.45%; CBOT soybean oil was at $54.05, up 2.83%; CBOT corn was at $424, down 0.18% [9]. Domestic Commodity Fluctuations - On January 22, 2026, most domestic commodities rose. Chemicals, new energy materials, non - metal building materials, energy products, etc. all had increases, while precious metals had declines [14]. Macro Summary - **Today's Market**: Domestic commodity futures markets closed mostly higher, with chemicals leading the gains [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: The US economy maintains a "slight to moderate" expansion, inflation cools, and consumption shows a "K - shaped" characteristic. Attention should be paid to upcoming GDP and inflation data [14]. - **Domestic Macro**: In 2025, China's consumer market scale exceeded 50 trillion yuan, and in 2026, consumption is expected to grow steadily [14]. - **Asset Views**: The scenario of no interest rate cut in January is basically confirmed, and the first interest rate cut by the Fed within the year is expected to be postponed to June. Short - term risk assets may adjust, while in the medium - term, it is recommended to go long on certain assets [14]. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: Stock markets continue to wait for the main line, and bond markets still have disturbing factors. The short - term judgments for stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are oscillatory rise, oscillation, and oscillation respectively [15]. - **Precious Metals**: After oscillatory adjustment, they maintain an upward trend. Gold and silver are expected to rise oscillatory [15]. - **Shipping**: Pay attention to the resumption of voyages in the far - month. The short - term judgment for the container shipping European line is oscillation [15]. - **Black Building Materials**: Fundamentals are lackluster. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Wait for the macro - situation to become clearer. Base metals are oscillating and consolidating. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate [15]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The trade tension eases slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure. Most varieties are expected to oscillate [17]. - **Agriculture**: Sentiment warms up but trends diverge. Some varieties are expected to rise oscillatory, while others are expected to oscillate or decline oscillatory [17].

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/01/2 10-093 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The first tranche of funds from ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of multiple agricultural and related products, including their current situations, influencing factors, and future outlooks. Overall, the market is complex with various products showing different trends such as oscillation, upward, or downward movements. The report also provides some trading strategies and suggestions based on the analysis [1][5][8][11][13][17][19][21][22][24][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Optimistic demand expectations boost the upward trend of oils and fats. US soybean oil futures rebounded significantly under the positive expectation of US biodiesel, palm oil entered the production - reduction stage with good export performance, and led the rise of oils and fats. The overall supply of oilseeds is relatively loose, and the palm oil inventory is expected to decrease during the production - reduction season. It is recommended to pay attention to buying hedging after a callback and the arbitrage strategy of going long on palm oil and short on rapeseed oil [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil oscillates, palm oil oscillates strongly, and rapeseed oil oscillates weakly [6]. 3.2. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: Overnight US soybeans rose, driving both protein meals to close higher. Factors such as positive Sino - US talks, increased US soybean exports, and expected domestic demand support the price. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening of futures prices due to the repair of the discount under high profits [8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal all oscillate. Soybean meal is stronger than rapeseed meal [9]. 3.3. Corn/Starch - **Viewpoint**: The market is in a state of game between the policy ceiling and the demand floor, and the oscillation continues. The supply in the Northeast is in a tight - balance state, while the supply in North China has increased. The downstream feed enterprises maintain a stable inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises have a low inventory and need to stock up before the Spring Festival. The policy grain may suppress the price increase [11][12]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [12]. 3.4. Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The supply of pigs is abundant, and the spot price continues to weaken. In the short term, the slaughter rhythm at the end of the month needs attention; in the medium term, the supply pressure will last until April 2026; in the long term, the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026 [13][14]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year, and the pig cycle is expected to bottom out and pick up in the second half of 2026 [15]. 3.5. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The market price followed BR to rise slightly. The price increase is mainly driven by commodity funds, and the fundamental driving force is insufficient. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is weak after the price rise [17][18]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables are limited, and the medium - term strategy is to buy on dips. The short - term market may return to wide - range oscillation [18]. 3.6. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: Multiple factors resonate, and the market price rises significantly. The core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026, and the rotation of commodity funds to the chemical sector also has a positive impact [19][20]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of butadiene is expected to improve, but there is short - term pressure. The medium - term trend is oscillating strongly [20]. 3.7. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The cotton price rebounds with certain support near 14,400 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price is in an adjustment period due to the phased realization of positive factors, but in the long term, the price is expected to rise based on the tight supply - demand balance and policy factors [21]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips [21]. 3.8. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price rebounds slightly. The global sugar market in the 25/26 crushing season is expected to be in surplus, and the price is under pressure. The domestic supply is increasing, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [21]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation weakly. It is recommended to short on rebounds [21]. 3.9. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The spot market atmosphere is weak, and the demand pressure remains unchanged. The import cost is increasing, but the demand is in the off - season, and the futures market is under pressure [22]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation weakly [22][23]. 3.10. Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: The double - glue paper rose at the end of the session. The supply is relatively abundant, the demand is weak, and the price increase is difficult to pass on. The industry hedging enthusiasm at high prices suppresses the upward space [24]. - **Outlook**: Oscillation weakly [24]. 3.11. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The market rebounds from a low level due to the warming of the commodity market. The futures price rebounds after hitting the support level, and the spot price in Jiangsu is rising due to tight supply [24][25]. - **Outlook**: The market will operate in a short - term range. It is recommended to operate in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter for the 03 contract [25].

十亿美元 持有美食变动规模(2025/11相较于2024/11) 150.0 =美债持有变动 100. 0 50.0 0.0 -50.0 -100.0 美债坑家结构跟踪 | 高频服装变 | | --- | | 美做灵型 玩家类型 有量占比 利率敏感性 | 图说金融(20260122) 如何看待当前对欧洲养老金抛售美债的担忧? 地缘风险引发不确定性已开始影响部分主权投资者的资产配置决策,点燃投资者对"去美元化"的担忧。 作为美债重要的海外持有方(约占38.9%),欧洲投资者是其市场流动性的关键支撑。在上一轮"去美元化 "交易盛行期间,欧洲非主要的抛售方,反而比利时、法国、挪威等欧洲国家仍持续增持美债。由此来看，当 前这一叙事的风险在于:欧洲投资者若停止增持或减缓增持,即构成结构性压力,主动抛售的影响将更为剧烈 当前,外国官方部门因储备增长放缓与美元信心减弱而需求下降,私人部门也因对冲后利差为负而配置意 愿低迷。目前需求或主要来自博弈美联储降息的交易盘。若劳动力市场保持当前"低速平衡"状态,美联储短 期难转向宽松,叠加地缘不确定性,美债仍处逆风期,10年美债利率运行中枢或在4.2%附近,市场风险需警惕。 风险提示 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - BR has seen a significant rebound in the past two days, with a single - day increase of over 4.5% on January 22, closing at 12,270 yuan/ton. Since late November last year, it has had an upward trend with a gain of over 20% in the past two months. The recent price increase is mainly due to the expected tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026 [2][4]. - In the short - term, the BR futures market is supported by butadiene supply expectations and the rotation of commodity funds into the chemical sector, so a long - position strategy is recommended. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to whether the expectations for BR raw materials can be fulfilled, as the degree of fulfillment may lead to different market trends [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Performance - The BR main contract has rebounded sharply in the past two days, closing at 12,270 yuan/ton on January 22 with a single - day increase of over 4.5% [2]. Market Review - The upward trend of BR since late November last year is mainly driven by the expected tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. This expectation comes from two aspects: no new domestic butadiene production capacity is planned in the first half of 2026, while there are new production capacity expansion plans for its downstream industries; in 2026, there will be shutdowns of ethylene cracking production capacity in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, which will increase overseas demand for domestic butadiene. Additionally, seasonal maintenance of domestic butadiene plants in the second quarter may further tighten supply [4]. - Since butadiene prices bottomed out in late November last year, downstream production profits improved, leading to increased consumption of butadiene and higher spot prices. However, as butadiene prices return above 9,000 yuan/ton, downstream profits are compressed, which may negatively affect butadiene demand. Currently, the high supply and high inventory problems in the butadiene spot market remain unresolved, and the market is mainly driven by expectations [5].

on Jan 21st, tin prices showed significant strength, closing up 5.79% to Rmb418,420ft. The main drivers behind the rise in tin price were lwofold: firstly, market sentiment improved as most non-ferrous metals stabilized over the past couple of days, boosting overall market mood secondly, concerns over supply disruptions increased due to the escalation of security conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). On Jan 15th, the Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Democratic Republic of the ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - No relevant content found Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - On January 21, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton; the imported ore price from Guinea was 63 US dollars/dry ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 US dollars/dry ton [1] - The spot price index on January 21 was 2634 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 6,889 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 177 tons [1] - The aluminum import profit and loss on January 21 was -2052 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 464 yuan/ton [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 21, the average price of 8M A00 was 23,710 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 30 yuan/ton, and the premium/discount was -150 yuan/ton [1] - The electrolytic aluminum smelting profit on January 21 was 7,579 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 34 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 138,755 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,196 tons [1] - The import profit and loss on January 21 was 134 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 21 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Alloy - On January 21, the Baotai 4001 price was 2,040 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton [1] - The refined - scrap price difference of raw aluminum on January 21 was 2,509 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3,530 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 119,128 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,012 tons [1] - The import profit and loss on January 21 was -3 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 42 yuan/ton [1]