Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "Oscillating Strongly" [44] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the precious metals market maintained an oscillating and strengthening trend. The news of Trump firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook in the morning led to concerns about the Fed's independence, causing the US dollar to plunge briefly and driving up precious metals prices. In the afternoon, disputes over France's fiscal issues led to a decline in European stock markets, and the US dollar recovered briefly. The strong performance of the domestic equity market limited the elasticity of gold. Before the release of next week's non - farm payroll data, the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September remained stable, and dovish expectations are expected to continue to dominate the market [2][4] - In the medium term, the outlook for the gold trend is optimistic, but the recovery expectations brought about by the strengthening of emerging market equities may suppress its elasticity. The US labor market is on a downward trend, and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle is expected to resume in September. The Fed's shadow chairman is likely to align with the president's preferences before taking office. Overseas liquidity will maintain an expansion trend in the next 1 - 2 quarters, and the market may trade the risk of the Fed's independence, which will support the gold trend [4] - If the situation shifts to a combination of interest rate cuts and economic recovery, the elasticity of gold will be limited, and silver will benefit more [7] - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between $3300 and $3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between $36 and $40 [7] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Important News - Trump removed Fed Governor Cook from office, but Cook said Trump had no right to fire her and she would not resign [3] - In July, the preliminary value of US durable goods orders decreased by 2.8% month - on - month, better than the expected 4% decrease. After excluding national defense, it decreased by 2.5% month - on - month, better than the expected 3.6% decrease. After excluding transportation, it increased by 1.1% month - on - month, better than the expected 0.2% increase. After excluding aircraft and non - defense capital goods, it increased by 1.1% month - on - month, better than the expected 0.2% increase [3] - For the week ending August 22, US Redbook commercial retail sales increased by 6.5% year - on - year, higher than the previous value of 5.9% [3] - In June, the US FHFA housing price index decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, worse than the expected 0.1% decrease. The S&P/CS20 - city unadjusted housing price index increased by 2.1% year - on - year, in line with expectations [3] Market Performance - On August 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities decreased by 0.59%, the commodity 20 index decreased by 0.54%, and the industrial products index decreased by 0.78% [46] - The precious metals index increased by 0.04% on August 26, 2025, 1.81% in the past 5 days, 1.41% in the past month, and 23.55% since the beginning of the year [48]

Group 1: Report Summary - The total global ore shipment volume this week was 301.8 (-90.8) million tons. Specifically, Australia's shipments increased month-on-month, while those from Brazil and non-mainstream countries decreased month-on-month. The domestic ore arrival volume was 2507.8 (+267.3) million tons, showing an increase in shipments and arrivals [1]. Group 2: Shipment Data Global Shipment Volume - On August 22, 2025, the global shipment volume was 3315.8 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 90.8 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 94.7 million tons [2]. Australia's Shipment Volume - On August 22, 2025, Australia's shipment volume was 1881 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 276.8 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 32.8 million tons [2]. Brazil's Shipment Volume - On August 22, 2025, Brazil's shipment volume was 811.7 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 253.8 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 49.7 million tons [2]. Non-mainstream Countries' Shipment Volume - On August 22, 2025, the shipment volume of non-mainstream countries was 2393.3 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 83.3 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 173.6 million tons [2]. Major Mines' Shipment Volume - **Rio Tinto**: On August 22, 2025, the global shipment volume was 725.1 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 148.6 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 130.6 million tons; the shipment volume to China was 596.6 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 102.5 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 79.2 million tons [2]. - **BHP**: On August 22, 2025, the global shipment volume was 461.1 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 64.3 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 74.7 million tons; the shipment volume to China was 385.4 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15.3 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 73.8 million tons [2]. - **FMG**: On August 22, 2025, the global shipment volume was 435.4 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 163.9 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 4.8 million tons; the shipment volume to China was 416.8 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 172.2 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 66.2 million tons [2]. - **VALE**: On August 22, 2025, the global shipment volume was 572.9 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 213.8 million tons and a year-on-year decrease of 43.9 million tons [2]. Australia's Shipment Proportion to China - On August 22, 2025, Australia's shipment proportion to China was 0.882, a month-on-month increase of 0.042 and a year-on-year increase of 0.042 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals industry is "oscillating on the strong side" [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The market remains in a dovish atmosphere after the Jackson Hole meeting, with precious metals oscillating and strengthening. However, the accelerated rise of the domestic equity market and high risk appetite are attracting funds, limiting the upward range of precious metals. With few key economic data this week, the focus is on next week's US labor market data. Before that, the expectation of interest rate cuts may remain positive, and the precious metals market is expected to continue its oscillating and strengthening trend [1][3] - In the medium term, there is optimism about the gold trend, but the strengthening of emerging - market equities may suppress its elasticity. The US labor market is on a downward trend, and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle is expected to restart in September. Overseas liquidity will likely expand in the next 1 - 2 quarters, and potential risks related to the Fed's independence may support the gold trend. However, strong global equity markets, especially in emerging markets, may reduce the attractiveness of the precious metals market. A stagflation - like combination of interest rate cuts and a weakening economy is more beneficial to gold, while a combination of interest rate cuts and recovery will benefit silver more [3] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Key Information - In July, the annualized total number of new home sales in the US was 652,000, higher than the expected 630,000. The month - on - month decrease was 0.6% [2] - US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset believes that a Fed interest - rate cut is appropriate. It will take several months to select a new Fed chair, and Powell is unlikely to regain Trump's favor. Hasset also hopes to establish a sovereign wealth fund, and the government may increase equity stakes in industries other than semiconductors [2] - Moody's warns that 22 US states are on recession alert, with nearly one - third of GDP affected [2] 3.2 Price Logic - The precious metals market is influenced by the dovish atmosphere after the Jackson Hole meeting, but the high - risk appetite in the domestic equity market restricts the rise of precious metals. The market is expected to continue its oscillating and strengthening trend before next week's US labor - market data. In the medium term, there are both positive and negative factors for the gold market, and different economic combinations will affect the performance of gold and silver [3] 3.3 Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between 3300 and 3500, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between 36 and 40 [3] 3.4 Index Performance - The precious metals index on August 25, 2025, had a daily increase of 1.19%, a 5 - day increase of 1.06%, a 1 - month increase of 1.01%, and a year - to - date increase of 23.49% [46] - The comprehensive commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index all showed increases, with the comprehensive commodity index up 0.87%, the commodity 20 index up 0.97%, and the industrial products index up 1.02% [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock market is trending upwards, and the linkage between stocks and bonds is weakening. In the stock index futures market, the sector rotation between high - and low - performing sectors does not change the upward trend. In the stock index options market, the sentiment remains optimistic, and buying call options is still a strong strategy. In the bond market, the sentiment is warming up [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: The sector rotation between high - and low - performing sectors does not change the upward trend. The basis, spread, and position of IF, IH, IC, and IM have changed. The Shanghai Composite Index opened higher and fluctuated on Thursday, hitting a new high. The hot sectors rotated, with agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and petrochemical industries leading the rise, while machinery, power equipment, and national defense and military industries leading the decline. Due to high trading volume and continuous inflow of leveraged funds, the upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold IM long positions [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Allocate IM long positions [7]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: The sentiment remains optimistic, and buying call options is still a strong strategy. The underlying market continued the optimistic sentiment of last week, with all varieties rising. The trading volume of the options market exceeded 20 billion yuan, up 36.72% from the previous trading day. All sentiment indicators in the options market give optimistic expectations. The volatility of each variety continued to rise significantly, approaching the level of April 8, 2025, but still about 10% away from the previous high on April 7 [2][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Buy call options and construct bull spreads [8]. 3.1.3 Bond Index Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment is warming up. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined significantly, with long - term bonds performing better than short - term bonds. The central bank made a net investment of 219 million yuan in the open market and a net MLF investment of 30 billion yuan in August. The capital market remains loose. The reaction of long - term bond yields to the stock - bond seesaw effect has weakened. The 30 - year bond yield around 2% has certain cost - effectiveness for insurance and other institutional investors [3][8][10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt a cautious stance on trends. Consider long - position alternatives for hedging due to high short - position hedging costs. Pay attention to the narrowing of long - term basis and the steepening of the yield curve [10]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic data of the United States on August 25, 2025, shows that the seasonally - adjusted annualized number of new home sales in July was 652,000 units, and the month - on - month change was - 0.61%. The economic data to be released includes China's cumulative year - on - year industrial enterprise profits in July, the US continued and initial jobless claims in August, the US second - quarter real GDP quarterly - adjusted annualized rate, PCE price index, and core PCE price index, as well as Japan's industrial production index and retail sales in July, and the US core PCE and PCE price indices in July [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Expanding Domestic Demand and Stabilizing Employment Policies**: On August 25, the director of the National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium to listen to suggestions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment, and promised to improve policies, create a fair market environment, and support enterprises [12]. - **Real Estate**: Six departments in Shanghai jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, including removing the housing purchase limit for eligible households outside the outer ring and treating single adults as households for housing purchase limit policies [12][13]. - **Stock Market**: The three major A - share indices opened and closed higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.51%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.26%, the ChiNext Index rose 3%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 0.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 3.14 trillion yuan, an increase of 594.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [13]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The document only lists the sections of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and bond index futures data, but no specific data is provided in the given content.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but gives the following ratings for each variety: - Oils and fats: Oscillating strongly [5] - Protein meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn and starch: Oscillating weakly [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating [8] - Natural rubber: Oscillating strongly [10] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillating strongly [12] - Cotton: Oscillating strongly [13] - Sugar: Oscillating [15] - Pulp: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating weakly [21] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall macro - environment shows a strong market expectation for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, with the US dollar weakening and the crude oil price oscillating strongly due to the uncertainty of Russia - Ukraine negotiations. Different agricultural products have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, rubber prices are supported by cost and enter the seasonal rising period, while corn prices are under pressure due to supply and demand factors [1][5]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Quotes and Views - **Oils and Fats** - **View**: The expected monthly increase in Malaysian palm oil production in August led to an oscillating consolidation of oil prices yesterday. - **Logic**: US government decisions on bio - diesel exemptions, strong US soybean exports, macro - environment factors (Fed rate - cut expectations, dollar weakness, and oil price trends), and industry - specific factors such as US soybean yield expectations and the situation of Malaysian palm oil production and exports all affect the oil market [5]. - **Outlook**: In the medium term, there is a high probability of continued strong oscillation [5]. - **Protein Meal** - **View**: Point - price orders support the high - level oscillation of the market. - **Logic**: International factors include US soybean yield estimates, weather conditions, and Brazilian soybean exports; domestic factors involve inventory pressure, supply gaps, and downstream demand [6]. - **Outlook**: The external market is expected to make up for losses and be stronger than the domestic market. The term structure of Dalian soybean meal futures may shift from carry to back. The spot basis may bottom out and rebound, and the market will move within a range [6]. - **Corn and Starch** - **View**: The sentiment is weak, and both the spot and futures markets maintain a weak trend. - **Logic**: Supply - side factors include increased grain sales in the trading link and new - crop production conditions; demand - side factors involve low profits in downstream industries [7]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, prices will oscillate weakly; in the long term, there is a low - absorption idea for the far - month contracts [8]. - **Live Pigs** - **View**: State reserves purchasing affects sentiment, and the futures market rebounds slightly. - **Logic**: Supply is abundant in the short, medium, and long terms, but demand may increase with the cooling of the weather. State reserves purchasing affects market sentiment [8]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are supported by supply - side capacity - reduction expectations [8]. - **Natural Rubber** - **View**: Rubber prices return to an oscillating and strong trend. - **Logic**: Driven by the overall strength of commodities due to the Fed's rate - cut expectations and weather - related speculation. The short - term fundamentals support the price [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber** - **View**: The market oscillates strongly. - **Logic**: It follows the trend of natural rubber and is supported by the short - term tight supply of raw material butadiene [12]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the butadiene price may rise slightly, and the market will oscillate strongly [12]. - **Cotton** - **View**: The quota is announced, and cotton prices increase in volume and rebound. - **Logic**: Low commercial inventory, limited impact of the import quota on supply, improving downstream demand, and higher expected purchase prices of ginning mills support the price. New - crop production may put pressure on prices [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the price range is 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [14]. - **Sugar** - **View**: Sugar prices oscillate within a range. - **Logic**: In the international market, Brazilian sugar production is in an upward phase; in the domestic market, the increase in imports affects the price. However, the short - term downward space is limited [15]. - **Outlook**: In the long term, prices may oscillate weakly; in the short term, they will move within the range of 5,600 - 5,900 yuan/ton [15]. - **Pulp** - **View**: There are few changes, and the market moves within a range. - **Logic**: There are both positive and negative factors in the pulp market, such as the warming of the broad - leaf pulp market and the over - supply of paper products [18]. - **Outlook**: The futures market will oscillate, and the main 11 - contract is expected to move within the range of 5,100 - 5,500 [18]. - **Logs** - **View**: The far - month contracts can be bought at low prices within the range. - **Logic**: The fundamentals have improved marginally since July, with factors such as increased valuation and reduced supply pressure, but there are also delivery - related pressures [21]. - **Outlook**: The market will oscillate weakly, and the 11 - contract can be bought at low prices within the range of 790 - 840 [21]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring - The report only lists the names of various varieties such as oils and fats, corn, live pigs, etc., without specific data monitoring content [23][53][73]. 3. Rating Standards - The rating standards include strong, oscillating strongly, oscillating, oscillating weakly, and weakly, with a time cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method provided [170]. 4. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural products index) show different trends. For example, the agricultural products index increased by 0.21% on the day, decreased by 0.56% in the past 5 days, decreased by 0.42% in the past month, and increased by 2.78% since the beginning of the year [172][174].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, the mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [6]. For individual products, most are rated as "oscillating", including iron ore, coke,焦煤, glass,纯碱, manganese silicon, and silicon iron [8][9][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After about a week of decline, the black building materials entered the lower end of the valuation range. With supply constraints on furnace materials and expectations of stricter safety supervision, prices rebounded significantly. As the off - peak and peak seasons are approaching, the apparent demand for steel remains weak, but it's not yet the time to verify terminal demand. With low inventory pressure in each link of the black industry chain and in the pre - peak season restocking window, prices are expected to have a small rebound space. Attention should be paid to future demand performance and furnace material supply recovery [2]. - Overall, after consecutive days of decline, black prices have fallen near the cost support level, and demand negatives have been gradually digested. With supply disturbances in furnace materials and downstream restocking demand, there is a driving force for price rebound. However, the weak expectation of peak - season terminal demand remains, suppressing the upside space. Future focus should be on policy implementation and terminal demand performance [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Core Logic: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports slightly declined, close to last year's level, with relatively stable total supply. On the demand side, pig iron production increased slightly, and the end - of - month production restrictions have limited impact, so iron ore demand is expected to remain high. In terms of inventory, the iron ore ports destocked this week, with a slight decrease in total inventory. There are limited bearish drivers in the fundamentals, and the price is expected to oscillate [3]. - Outlook: With high iron ore demand, stable supply and inventory, and limited bearish fundamental drivers, the price is expected to oscillate in the future [9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - Core Logic: Some coal mines in the production area have resumed production, but some are still restricted by accidents and other factors. For example, a 3 - million - ton low - sulfur lean primary coking coal mine in Xiangning, Linfen, Shanxi has been shut down for three days. On the import side, the average daily customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains above 1,000 vehicles, but there was a short - term decline in the past two days due to the Mongolian customs system. On the demand side, the eighth round of coke price increase has started again, showing regional differentiation. In some areas, coking production is restricted, and the short - term rigid demand for coking coal has slightly declined. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and spot transactions have weakened. Some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, but overall, there is no obvious inventory pressure. The short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the short - term disk still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [3]. - Outlook: With continuous supply disturbances and difficult significant supply increase before the parade, short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the short - term disk still has support under a healthy fundamental situation [13]. 3.3 Alloys 3.3.1 Manganese Silicon - Core Logic: Yesterday, the coking coal futures price rose significantly, and the black sector was strong, with manganese silicon oscillating strongly. Manganese silicon manufacturers stocked up on raw materials before the parade, and the restocking is nearly over. With increased arrivals and rising supply pressure, the port ore price has weakened from its high level. In terms of supply and demand, steel mills have good profits, and finished product output remains high. Under the environment of industry profit repair, the resumption of production by manufacturers continues, and the supply - demand relationship of manganese silicon may gradually become looser. In the medium - to - long - term, there may be downward pressure on the manganese silicon price [3]. - Outlook: Currently, the market inventory pressure is controllable, and the cost provides support, so the short - term downward space for the manganese silicon price is limited. But in the medium - to - long - term, as the supply - demand relationship becomes looser, the price may decline. Attention should be paid to the reduction in raw material costs [17]. 3.3.2 Silicon Iron - Core Logic: The current market inventory pressure of silicon iron is not large. In the short - term, the silicon iron price is expected to oscillate. However, in the future, the supply - demand gap will gradually be filled, and there are hidden concerns in the fundamentals. The upside space of the price is not optimistic. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the coal market and the adjustment of electricity costs [3]. - Outlook: Currently, the market inventory pressure is not large, and the cost provides support, so the short - term downward adjustment space for the silicon iron price is limited. But the medium - to - long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price center is expected to move down. Attention should be paid to the coal market dynamics and the adjustment of electricity costs in the main production areas [18][20]. 3.4 Glass - Core Logic: After the glass futures price fell, the sentiment in the spot market declined, with mid - stream shipments and a significant decline in upstream production and sales. On the supply side, there is still one production line waiting to produce glass, and the overall daily melting volume is expected to remain stable. The upstream has slightly accumulated inventory, with no prominent self - contradictions but more market sentiment disturbances. Recently, the rising coal price has strengthened the cost support, but the fundamentals are still weak [3]. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the raw material price is strong. After the transaction of delivery contradictions, the far - month contract still gives a premium. In the medium - to - long - term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and if the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to oscillate downward [15]. 3.5 Steel - Core Logic: There are still contraction disturbances in the supply of coking coal and iron ore. Under the background of high pig iron production, the cost has an upward driving force, and the disk has strong support. The overall spot steel transactions are average, mainly at low prices, and the market sentiment is still cautious. Last week, the production of rebar decreased, and the production of hot - rolled coils increased. As the off - peak season ends, mid - and downstream enterprises are restocking before the parade. The apparent demand for rebar has improved month - on - month, and inventory accumulation has slowed down. The demand for hot - rolled coils remains highly resilient, and inventory continues to accumulate under high production. The supply - demand fluctuations of medium - thick plates and cold - rolled products are limited, with both supply and demand of the five major steel products increasing, and the inventory accumulation speed slowing down [8]. - Outlook: As the off - peak season ends, steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the market is still cautious about the peak - season demand. Both supply and demand will be affected before and after the parade. The blast furnace production restriction situation needs to be tracked, and there may be shutdowns of construction sites and factories in Beijing and surrounding areas. The pre - parade restocking of raw materials may end. Recently, there are continuous disturbances in the cost supply side. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely. Future focus should be on steel mill production restrictions and terminal demand performance [8]. 3.6 Coke - Core Logic: In the futures market, the eighth round of coke price increase has started again, combined with continuous rumors of production restrictions and strengthened cost support from coking coal, coke prices were strong yesterday. In the spot market, the quasi - first - grade coke price at Rizhao Port is 1480 yuan/ton (+10). On the supply side, the seventh round of price increases has been fully implemented, and coking enterprise profits have quickly recovered. As the parade approaches, coking production in some areas is gradually restricted, while others maintain normal production. On the demand side, downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively producing. Affected by the parade, transportation in some areas is restricted, so local steel mill inventories are still low, and some coking enterprises have started to accumulate inventory. Currently, the inventory of upstream coking enterprises is still at a low level, and under simultaneous production restrictions on coking and steel, the short - term supply - demand remains tight [12]. - Outlook: As the parade approaches, the expectation of coke production restrictions may be stronger than that of steel mills. The short - term tight supply situation will continue. With the start of the eighth round of price increases and strengthened cost support from coking coal, the short - term disk has strong support [12]. 3.7 Scrap Steel - Core Logic: The average tax - excluded price of crushed scrap in East China is 2174 (+5) yuan/ton, and the rebar - to - scrap price difference in East China is 1032 (+24) yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the arrival volume of scrap steel decreased month - on - month this week. In terms of demand, the profit of electric arc furnaces is low due to the pressure on finished products recently. The profit and loss of electric arc furnaces during off - peak electricity hours in East China is at a tight balance, and there are losses in many other areas during off - peak hours. The daily consumption of scrap steel in electric arc furnaces has decreased month - on - month. In the blast furnace sector, pig iron production has slightly increased, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has also slightly increased. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has increased slightly. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory has slightly increased, and the available inventory days have dropped to a relatively low level [10]. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent. The pressure on finished product prices has led to low electric arc furnace profits, but resources are still tight. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [10]. 3.8 Sodium Carbonate - Core Logic: The delivered price of heavy - quality sodium carbonate in Shahe is 1230 - 1280 yuan/ton (-). The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, and as the delivery approaches, the fundamental logic returns, with a neutral macro - environment. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term suppression. The production is at a high level, and supply pressure remains. There is no short - term disturbance to production, and production is expected to continue to increase. On the demand side, heavy - quality sodium carbonate is expected to maintain rigid - demand procurement. There are still ignition production lines that have not produced glass, the float glass daily melting volume is expected to be stable, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to bottom out initially, currently at 86,500 tons. The demand for heavy - quality sodium carbonate is flat. In the light - quality sodium carbonate sector, downstream procurement is flat, but the overall downstream restocking sentiment is weak, and there is resistance to high prices. Sentiment affects the disk. As the shipping problem eases, mid - stream inventory accumulates, and downstream acceptance is weak [16]. - Outlook: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged. After the disk price drops, there is a small increase in spot - futures transactions. It is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long - term, the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - On August 25, equity indices and CGB futures rose, and most commodity futures increased, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [2][11][13] - Shanghai issued new property market policies, and the CSRC strengthened supervision over futures companies' internet marketing activities [39][40] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On August 25, equity indices and CGB futures rose; most commodity futures gained ground, with coking coal and coke leading the gains. The top three gainers were coking coal (up 6.5% with open interest up 3.1% month - on - month), fuel oil (up 5.1% with open interest up 4.5% month - on - month), and coke (up 4.4% with open interest up 6.2% month - on - month). The top three decliners were rapeseed (down 0.3% with open interest down 5.0% month - on - month), lithium carbonate (down 0.3% with open interest up 1.8% month - on - month), and polyester staple fiber (down 0.3% with open interest down 2.8% month - on - month) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Coking Coal - On August 25, coking coal increased by 6.5% to 1215.5 yuan/ton. Supported by slow supply recovery and rigid demand from coking enterprises, the short - term futures market has support. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of major coal mine accidents [17][20][21] - Supply: Some coal mines in main production areas resumed operations, but new ones suspended or reduced production in some areas. Imported coal customs clearance at Ganqimaodu Port increased. Demand: Coke output was stable with a slight increase, and coking enterprises procured based on demand. Upstream coal mines started to accumulate inventories slightly [18][19][21] 1.2.2 Coke - On August 25, coke increased by 4.4% to 1736 yuan/ton. With military parade - related production restriction expectations, the supply - demand tight situation may continue, and the futures market has support from rigid demand and production restriction expectations [26][28][29] - Supply: The seventh round of price increases was implemented, coking enterprise profits rebounded, and output picked up, but supply increase was limited due to high costs. Demand: Steel mills had good profits, steel exports improved, and the rigid demand for coke was strong. Inventory: Steel mills actively purchased, and coking enterprise inventories dropped to a low level and then slightly accumulated [27][28][29] 1.2.3 Fuel Oil - On August 25, fuel oil increased by 5.1% to 2907 yuan/ton. The reasons were Ukraine's attacks and US sanctions on Chinese companies, leading to the resurgence of the geopolitical premium for fuel oil. In the short - term, it performed strongly, and the bitumen - fuel oil price spread fell rapidly. In the context of Russia - Ukraine peace talks, it may be strong in the near term but weak in the long term [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Shanghai issued the "Notice on Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policy Measures" on August 25, including policies on housing purchase restrictions, housing provident fund, credit, and property tax, effective from August 26, 2025 [39][40] - The Shanghai Head Office of the People's Bank of China adjusted the pricing mechanism for commercial personal housing loan interest rates in Shanghai on August 25, no longer differentiating between first - home and second - home loans [39][40] - Premier Li Qiang listened to the report on the implementation of policies for large - scale equipment upgrading and consumer goods trade - in on August 22, emphasizing strengthening coordination, cracking down on fraud, and releasing domestic demand potential [39][40] 2.2 Industry News - On August 22, the CSRC issued the "Interim Provisions on the Administration of Internet Marketing by Futures Companies", strengthening the whole - process supervision over futures companies' internet marketing activities [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the overall investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry. However, individual metal outlooks are provided, including "oscillation" for copper, aluminum, lead, and nickel; "oscillation under pressure" for alumina; "oscillation with a downward bias" for zinc; and "oscillation with potential upward volatility" for tin. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overall Non-Ferrous Metals**: The weakening US dollar index provides support for base metals. In the short to medium term, the weak dollar supports prices, but the weak demand outlook means the potential for inventory reduction in the September peak season is uncertain. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support prices [1]. - **Copper**: Powell's dovish remarks boost copper prices, which are expected to oscillate at a high level. Supply constraints and low inventory support prices, but weakening demand and US tariffs on copper may limit upside [4][5]. - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weak and stable, and increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on prices. The market is expected to oscillate with a downward bias due to overcapacity and inventory accumulation [5][9]. - **Aluminum**: Macro sentiment boosts prices, which are expected to oscillate. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is showing signs of improvement, but the inventory reduction trend needs confirmation [9][10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Strong cost support keeps prices oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply - demand balance is weak, but there is potential for price spreads to widen [11][14]. - **Zinc**: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a small rebound in prices. In the long term, supply is expected to remain in surplus, and prices may decline [14][15]. - **Lead**: Macro sentiment drives a small rebound in prices. Supply may tighten slightly this week, and demand is recovering, but battery enterprise operating rates and scrap battery prices also affect prices [16][18]. - **Nickel**: The equity market's strength supports short - term prices, but the market is mainly driven by sentiment, and the fundamental situation is weakening [19][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Declining warehouse receipts drive prices up. Attention should be paid to the realization of peak - season demand and cost changes [24]. - **Tin**: Tight supply supports prices at a high level, but weakening demand in the second half of the year limits upward momentum, and price volatility may increase [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Powell's dovish speech increases the probability of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting copper prices. Supply constraints remain due to low processing fees and reduced production guidance from some mines. Demand is in the off - season, but low inventory provides short - term support. The price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Alumina**: Smelters are profitable, and the operating capacity is at a high level, resulting in an oversupply situation. Inventory accumulation and increasing warehouse receipts put pressure on prices. The price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias [5][9]. - **Aluminum**: The weakening US dollar and potential domestic stimulus policies affect prices. Supply capacity is increasing, and demand is expected to improve with the approaching peak season, but the inventory reduction trend needs confirmation. The price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term supply - demand balance is weak. Cost support is strong as scrap aluminum prices follow aluminum ingots. The price is expected to oscillate, and there is potential for price spreads to widen [11][14]. - **Zinc**: Rising expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a small rebound in prices. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. In the long term, supply is expected to remain in surplus, and prices may decline [14][15]. - **Lead**: Macro sentiment drives a small rebound in prices. Supply may tighten due to production cuts and transportation restrictions, and demand is recovering as some battery factories resume production. The price is expected to oscillate [16][18]. - **Nickel**: The equity market's strength supports short - term prices, but the market is mainly driven by sentiment. The fundamental situation is weakening, with potential for looser raw material supply and increasing intermediate product output. The price is expected to oscillate [19][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Declining warehouse receipts drive prices up. Attention should be paid to the realization of peak - season demand and cost changes. The price is expected to oscillate [24]. - **Tin**: Tight supply due to production disruptions in major producing regions supports prices. However, weakening demand in the second half of the year limits upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate, and volatility may increase [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 The report does not provide specific content for this section.

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Oscillating [5] - Polysilicon: Oscillating [6] - Lithium Carbonate: Oscillating with a Bullish Bias [8][10] Core Views of the Report - The new energy metals market is experiencing wide - amplitude oscillations at high levels due to repeated supply disruptions and capital games. In the short - term, the supply - demand of lithium carbonate may enter a phase of tightness, while silicon faces the risk of looser supply - demand, and cost increases support the prices of new energy metals. In the long - term, the supply of silicon, especially polysilicon, is expected to contract, and the price center may rise, while the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon Information Analysis - As of August 25, the spot prices of oxygen - fed 553 and 421 industrial silicon in East China were 9350 yuan/ton and 9600 yuan/ton respectively, with price fluctuations [5]. - The latest domestic inventory of industrial silicon was 437,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. Among them, the market inventory was 174,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%, and the factory inventory was 262,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% [5]. - As of July 2025, the monthly output of industrial silicon was 338,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 2.21 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% [5]. - In July, the export volume of industrial silicon was 74,006 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 36.7%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 414,711 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0% [5]. - In June, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 14.36GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.45%. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07% [5]. Main Logic - The supply of industrial silicon continues to recover. In the southwest region, the resumption of production in silicon plants has accelerated significantly under the combined effect of the wet - season advantage and the rebound of silicon prices. At the end of the month, some large enterprises in Xinjiang resumed production after maintenance, bringing additional increments. In August, the release of southwest production capacity still has a large space, and the overall supply pressure may continue to rise [5]. - The demand has shown some signs of improvement. The resumption of production in polysilicon enterprises has driven the demand for industrial silicon to gradually recover. The organic silicon industry maintains the rhythm of rigid - demand procurement, and some enterprises still have a certain willingness to support prices. The aluminum alloy sector has stable production, with limited incremental support for demand [5]. - With the continuous recovery of supply - side production, social inventory and futures warehouse receipts are expected to further accumulate, and the risk of market pressure needs attention [5]. Outlook - In the short - term, the price of industrial silicon will continue to oscillate under the influence of macro - sentiment and coal prices. If large - scale enterprises resume production intensively, the price may be further suppressed [6]. 2. Polysilicon Information Analysis - According to the data of the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of N - type re - feedstock polysilicon was 45,000 - 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.05% [6]. - The latest number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 6,730 lots, an increase of 190 lots compared with the previous value [6]. - In July, the total export volume of polysilicon in China was about 2,135.42 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 63.14%. From January to July 2025, the total export volume was 13,525.39 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25.15%. In July, the total import volume of polysilicon was about 1,169.56 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.11%. From January to July 2025, the total import volume was 12,379.34 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.08% [6]. - From January to July 2025, the newly - added domestic photovoltaic installed capacity was 223.25GW, a year - on - year increase of 81%. In 2024, the cumulative newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity from January to December was 278GW, a year - on - year increase of 28% [6]. Main Logic - Macroscopically, the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has fluctuated. Recently, six departments jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, strengthening policy expectations. However, the coal price has dropped recently, resulting in wide - amplitude oscillations in the polysilicon price [6][7]. - From the perspective of supply fundamentals, with the arrival of the wet season, the production capacity in the southwest region has increased. The polysilicon production capacity in Sichuan has rebounded, and it is expected that the polysilicon output will continue to rise in August on the basis of over 100,000 tons currently. In the medium - to - long - term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether anti - cut - throat competition policies will restrict the supply of polysilicon [8]. - On the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate increased significantly from January to May, with a cumulative growth rate of 150%, but it also over - drafted the installation demand in the second half of the year. The single - month domestic photovoltaic installation in June was only 14GW, and the installation volume in July further decreased. Considering the decline in photovoltaic installation in the second half of the year and the weakening of the demand for battery and component exports, the subsequent demand for polysilicon may continue to weaken [8]. - Overall, there is still pressure on the supply - demand of polysilicon, and the anti - cut - throat competition sentiment has fluctuated, increasing the price volatility of polysilicon [8]. Outlook - The anti - cut - throat competition policy has significantly boosted the polysilicon price. It is necessary to pay attention to the implementation of the policy. If the policy expectations fade, the price may fluctuate in the opposite direction [8]. 3. Lithium Carbonate Information Analysis - On August 25, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract increased by 0.53% to 79,380 yuan compared with the previous day. The total open interest of lithium carbonate contracts decreased by 804 lots to 788,716 lots [8]. - On August 25, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan to 82,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,400 yuan to 80,200 yuan/ton. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) on Flush was 910 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 77,100 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate. On the same day, the warehouse receipts increased by 640 tons to 25,630 tons [9]. Main Logic - The first - wave emotional impact caused by the shutdown of the Jianxiakeng Mine has ended. The subsequent trading mainly focuses on two points: the manifestation of actual supply - demand shortages and the speculation of possible shutdowns of certain salt lakes and mica mines [9]. - Fundamentally, the supply - demand gap is gradually emerging. The weekly production of SMM has declined month - on - month, especially the production corresponding to mica has declined significantly, but there is some supplement from spodumene. The import of lithium carbonate in China decreased significantly in July, but it will recover in the fourth quarter according to shipping. Currently, the demand has not significantly exceeded expectations, the production schedule in August is relatively stable, and the demand in September, the peak season, is worth looking forward to, with attention focused on the production schedule. The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipts in August are gradually recovering [9]. - Overall, there is a gradually emerging supply - demand gap in the domestic market, but it should be noted that the current high price may stimulate the accelerated release of supply. The trading enthusiasm of capital has decreased, and attention should be paid to the risk of extreme price fluctuations caused by position closing, and opportunities for buying near - month contracts on dips or calendar spreads should be considered [9]. Outlook - The supply - demand gap caused by the shutdown is expected to keep the price oscillating with a bullish bias [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests investors should approach oil and chemical investments with a mindset of slightly bullish oscillations, awaiting the implementation of specific policies to address over - competition in China's petrochemical industry. The ratings for each variety are as follows: oil prices are expected to be slightly bearish with oscillations; asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, methanol, urea, ethylene glycol, pure benzene, styrene, PVC, and caustic soda are expected to oscillate; LLDPE, PP, and PL are expected to oscillate in the short - term [7][10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hardening of the US stance towards Russia is the main reason for the recent strengthening of crude oil prices. Meanwhile, the chemical sector continues to be strong, awaiting policy implementation. The polyester chain performs best, while the pure benzene and styrene chains underperform. Polyolefins saw a late - stage price increase, and ethylene glycol's low port inventory supports its price [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Amidst warming macro - sentiment and continuous geopolitical disturbances, oil prices rebounded slightly after stabilizing. However, with OPEC+ accelerating supply release, high US production, and the potential decline of high - operating refineries in China and the US, the rebound's sustainability is limited. Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend, and short - term disturbances from Russia - Ukraine negotiations should be monitored [10]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term negative impacts of tariff hikes, OPEC production increases, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are outweighed by the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine, Middle - East, and US - Venezuela situations. The geopolitical premium for asphalt has resurfaced, supporting its cost. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined from its high, and the refinery's continuous return to operation has driven the spread down. The high premium of asphalt futures is supported, but its absolute price is overestimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline as warehouse receipts increase [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The short - term negative impacts are overshadowed by the escalation of geopolitical situations, and the geopolitical premium for high - sulfur fuel oil has returned. Although the increase in heavy - oil supply is more certain, factors such as the attack on Russian refineries, the attack on the Druzhba pipeline, and US sanctions on Chinese fuel - oil - importing enterprises have contributed to the price increase. The high cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil also supports its price. However, the price disturbance caused by geopolitical escalation is short - term, and changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation should be monitored [12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green - energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, its valuation is low. Fundamentally, the pressure on domestic refined - oil supply may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil, and it is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation, following the fluctuations of crude oil [13]. - **PX**: With the overall oscillation of crude oil prices and the strengthening of naphtha prices, there is still some support at the cost end. The new PTA production line has started production, and with the continuous improvement of terminal polyester and textile demand, the price of PX is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend under low - inventory conditions. It is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, paying attention to the support at 6750 - 6800 [14]. - **PTA**: The new production line has started production, and the pattern of inventory reduction remains unchanged. There is short - term cost support and a favorable macro - sentiment. In the medium - term, the pattern is expected to improve in August - September, and it is recommended to buy on dips at the medium - term level, with support in the 4700 - 5000 range [14]. - **Pure Benzene**: The recent positive signals from Russia - Ukraine peace talks have weakened the support for oil prices. In Asia, South Korea plans to shut down and overhaul cracking units in October, and the naphtha inventory in the ARA hub has risen. The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to decline, but the decline rate has slowed. The market is trading on the expected increase in inventory pressure. In the short - term, it is driven by sentiment and may be slightly bullish. In the medium - term, if no specific de - capacity policies are implemented, it may return to the fundamental trading of inventory accumulation [16]. - **Styrene**: The direct sales to downstream have decreased, and the arrival of supplementary goods has increased, leading to inventory accumulation at the port and a price decline. With the news of de - capacity in China and South Korea, the prices of pure benzene and styrene have rebounded. In September - October, with more maintenance plans, the supply - demand situation may reverse, and it is possible to try to expand profits in the September - October period. Fundamentally, it is still bearish, but short - selling is against the trend in the short - term due to factors such as production - limit policies for the September parade, continuous release of macro - policies, and coal - mine safety accidents [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Despite high domestic supply pressure, the visible inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years. According to the shipping and arrival schedules, the port inventory will continue to decline in early September. The short - term fundamentals are moderately positive, and the low port inventory and the expectation of the polyester peak season provide good support. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the upper pressure at 4600, and the EG09 - 01 reverse - spread position should be held [20]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is waiting for cost guidance from upstream products. The upstream polymerization cost oscillates without obvious guidance, and the price of short - fiber oscillates within a range. Fundamentally, it has weakened slightly, and the production - sales ratio has slowed down. Without obvious positive demand stimuli, the processing fee is expected to remain in a low - level range. The absolute value of short - fiber follows the fluctuations of raw materials and oscillates in the short - term [21]. - **Bottle - Chip**: There is some cost support, but its own driving force is limited, and the processing fee is passively compressed. As the peak season ends, demand may weaken. Attention should be paid to the polyester factories' willingness to adjust their operating rates in September. The price oscillates, and the absolute value follows the fluctuations of raw materials [22]. - **Methanol**: In the short - term, it oscillates. The recent news of China's chemical - capacity policy has boosted the market sentiment, but the actual impact on methanol is limited. Considering the high probability of overseas shutdowns in the far - month, opportunities for buying at low prices in the far - month can be monitored [27]. - **Urea**: The actual demand is insufficient, and the export release is slow. Without positive support under the unchanged fundamentals, the futures price is under pressure. Before the actual export release, the market is in a wait - and - see mode, and the futures price is expected to oscillate with a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of exports [25]. - **LLDPE**: The futures price has rebounded slightly. The news of domestic device overhauls to address over - capacity in the petrochemical industry and the news of South Korean petrochemical capacity elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The short - term oil price has rebounded slightly, and the macro - level still has capital games. The fundamentals of LLDPE are still under pressure, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, paying attention to the demand during the peak season [29]. - **PP**: The futures price oscillates. The news of domestic device overhauls and the expectation of South Korean petrochemical device elimination have stimulated the price, but the actual impact is limited. The oil price oscillates in the short - term, and the supply side of PP still has an increasing trend. The upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure exists, and the demand is in the off - peak to peak - season transition, with low operating rates in the plastic - weaving and injection - molding industries. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [31]. - **PL**: In the short - term, it follows the oscillation of PP. The short - term sentiment in the olefin sector has been boosted by the news from China and South Korea, but the downstream buying enthusiasm has decreased. The trading volume of propylene enterprises has decreased, and the price has moved down slightly. The short - term futures price follows the fluctuations of PP, and the polypropylene processing fee represented by PP - PL is the focus of the market [33]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has improved, and PVC has weakly stabilized. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the fundamentals of PVC are under pressure, with stable costs. The upstream has started autumn maintenance, production has declined, downstream operating rates have changed little, and low - price purchases have increased. The anti - dumping policy may take effect within a month, and export expectations are under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate widely, with the driving force coming from the improvement of market sentiment and the pressure from inventory accumulation [34]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price increase may slow down. At the macro - level, there are expectations of anti - over - competition policies in China, and the probability of overseas interest - rate cuts has increased. At the micro - level, the inventory replenishment demand from non - aluminum industries is approaching the end, and there is pressure from warehouse receipts in the near - month. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in the October contract at high prices. For the January contract, it is recommended to buy on dips because the expectations of alumina and MHP production cannot be falsified, and the high operating rate of alumina supports the demand for caustic soda [35]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, MEG, and others have different changes. For example, Brent's M1 - M2 spread is 0.52 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 month spread is 8 with a change of - 4 [37]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse - receipt data of various varieties are provided. For example, the basis of asphalt is 8 with a change of - 9, and the number of warehouse receipts is 72650 [38]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of different combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. have different changes. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 198 with a change of - 21 [40]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - This part provides data monitoring on the basis and spreads of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data details are not fully presented in the text [41]. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including the commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index), and sector index (energy index) are provided. For example, the commodity 20 index is 2486.32, up 0.97%, and the energy index on August 25, 2025, is 1226.46, up 0.84% for the day [281][283].