1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of benchmark crude oils Brent and SC have been strengthening recently. The main contract of SC has risen to around 650 yuan per barrel, and Brent reached around $83 per barrel on Wednesday. The strength of refined oil has exceeded market expectations, with significant increases in the crack spreads of diesel and aviation kerosene. The natural gas price in Europe has continued to be strong due to the shutdown of Qatari gas fields and liquefaction plants [2]. - More refineries announced force majeure or production cuts on Wednesday, which will affect the pattern of the entire chemical and oil product markets in the next few months. Refined oil and chemicals are about to enter the peak spring maintenance period from March to May. Even though the 2026 maintenance is expected to be relatively light, the crack spreads of middle distillates have increased significantly due to factors such as reduced Russian exports. Currently, a forced heavy - maintenance is being implemented in global refineries, leading to a greater reduction in inventories of refined oil and chemicals. Even after the geopolitical conflict ends, the profit levels of refined oil and chemicals will be lifted [2]. - Crude oil leads the chemical industry to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Main Logic of Each Variety 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **Market News**: The US President Trump said on March 3 that the US Navy would escort oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary, and the US International Development Finance Corporation would provide political risk insurance and guarantees for maritime trade in the Gulf region. On March 4, the supply of oil through the "Friendship" oil pipeline to Slovakia remained suspended. The EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory increased by 3.475 million barrels in the week ending February 27, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.704 million barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 0.429 million barrels, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.2% [6]. - **Main Logic**: The upward trend of oil prices has slowed down, and the spreads of both domestic and foreign markets have continued to rise. The US crude oil has continued its seasonal inventory build - up, but the build - up rate has slowed down compared to last week. After the refinery utilization rate dropped from its high level, the inventory pressure of refined oil has decreased. If the low traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz continues, it may lead to shipping difficulties and increased production suspension pressure for Middle - Eastern countries, posing an upward risk to oil prices. However, if there are signs of geopolitical easing or expectations of increased traffic volume, oil prices will still be under pressure. Currently, it is still a high - volatility period dominated by geopolitics, and price risks are high. Attention should be paid to the impact of high - volatility freight rates on the price difference between domestic and foreign markets [6]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. Geopolitical tensions have led to a reduction in crude oil supply. After the fermentation of geopolitical premiums, there is significant uncertainty in the later situation, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate [7]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main asphalt futures closed at 3,660 yuan per ton, and the spot prices in East China, Northeast China, and Shandong were 3,430 yuan per ton, 3,760 yuan per ton, and 3,530 yuan per ton respectively [8]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and asphalt futures prices have followed suit. The by - product nature of asphalt has caused the asphalt crack spread to decline during the sharp rise of crude oil. The market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. As the asphalt - fuel oil spread has dropped sharply, the profit of asphalt refineries has deteriorated rapidly. Statistics show that the asphalt production in Hainan has increased significantly. The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak, and the inventory has started to accumulate in 2026, with the year - on - year growth rate changing from negative in 2025 to positive. Currently, the refinery inventory is low while the social inventory is high, and the refinery operation rate is low while the inventory continues to accumulate, reflecting the reality of tight raw material supply and poor demand. After the increase in the spot price in South China, the export window is expected to close, and the weakening of exports will intensify the domestic oversupply pressure. Against the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the pressure of asphalt inventory build - up is still high. After the sharp rise of fuel oil, the current asphalt futures price is undervalued compared to fuel oil and overvalued compared to rebar. The asphalt - fuel oil spread compresses when the geopolitical situation heats up and rebounds when the situation eases [8]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. The absolute price of asphalt is in an overvalued range, and the medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main high - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 3,888 yuan per ton [9]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in fuel oil prices due to its high import dependence and strong geopolitical attributes. The tense situation in Iran not only affects the export expectations of Iranian fuel oil and Middle - Eastern fuel oil but also the supply expectations of Middle - Eastern natural gas. The energy crisis effect has driven the sharp rise of fuel oil prices, and the sharp rise in freight rates has also contributed to the rebound of fuel oil. Currently, attention should be paid to the progress of the US - Iran situation. As long as the geopolitical disturbance continues, fuel oil prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. Once the US and Iran reach an agreement, it may have a significant negative impact on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the medium - to - long - term, the demand for Middle - Eastern fuel oil for power generation is gradually being replaced by natural gas and photovoltaics, which constitutes a medium - to - long - term negative factor for high - sulfur fuel oil. After the replacement of fuel oil for power generation in Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia is expected to increase fuel oil exports. The continuous decline of the asphalt - fuel oil spread shows that the geopolitical escalation has a significant impact on fuel oil prices [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. The long - term growth expectation of Venezuelan oil production exerts pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market News**: On March 4, 2026, the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract closed at 4,376 yuan per ton [10]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in natural gas and crude oil prices, and low - sulfur fuel oil has followed the upward trend of crude oil. The market is currently focused on the progress of the geopolitical situation. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a strong main - product attribute. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, replacement by green energy, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its current valuation is low, and its main - product attribute causes the crack spread to strengthen during the rise of crude oil prices. In terms of fundamentals, the export tax - refund rate of low - sulfur fuel oil has an advantage over refined oil, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals is likely to be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. Considering that the valuation of low - sulfur fuel oil is lower than that of refined oil, its valuation is expected to be difficult to further compress [10]. - **Outlook**: Volatility. Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by the replacement of green fuels and the limited space for high - sulfur substitution, but its current valuation is low, and it fluctuates with crude oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, the spot price of PX in April was negotiated at 1,024 - 1,038 US dollars per ton, and in May at 1,024 - 1,045 US dollars per ton. A spot deal in April was made at 1,030.5 US dollars per ton. The main PX contract closed at 8,088 (+104) yuan per ton, with a basis of 94 (-26) yuan per ton. The MOPJ closed at 721 (+18) US dollars per ton, and the PXN was 282 (-2) US dollars per ton. The PTA2605 closed at 5,694 (+86) yuan per ton, with a processing margin of 499 (+61) yuan per ton. A 770,000 - ton PX plant in South Korea started its scheduled maintenance on March 4 and is expected to restart in late April [11]. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical situation has brought significant fluctuations to the price of raw material PX. The cost and sentiment have resonated. Some domestic PX plants have reduced production preventively, and the supply - demand expectation of PX is improving, gradually falling from a high - operation state. The implementation of the maintenance of individual plants in South Korea has been confirmed. The restart of multiple PTA plants in the downstream will provide short - term support for PX demand. With the decrease in supply and increase in demand, the short - term fundamentals of PX are slightly strong [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the PX price will fluctuate strongly under the resonance of cost support and market sentiment. The logic of going long on dips in the medium - term remains. The 05 - 09 spread of PX is expected to be in a positive spread position on dips, and the PXN is expected to be maintained in the range of [270, 330] US dollars per ton [11]. 3.1.6 PTA - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, the spot price of PTA was 5,605 (+80) yuan per ton, the spot processing margin was 245.6 (+35.5) yuan per ton, and the spot basis was - 46 (+7) yuan per ton. The main PTA contract closed at 5,694 (+86) yuan per ton, and the processing margin on the main contract was 396.4 (+17.9) yuan per ton. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased overall, with an average sales rate of about 40% by 4 pm. The sales rates of several polyester factories were 60%, 100%, 0%, 25%, 75%, 40%, 40%, 0%, 10%, 100%, 0%, 40%, 30%, 30%, 60%, 80%, 50%, 80% respectively. The sales rate of domestic polyester chip sample enterprises was 16.06%, a decrease of 55.24% compared with the previous period [12]. - **Main Logic**: The US - Iran geopolitical situation is still the short - term focus of the market. The shipping in the Strait is blocked, forcing crude oil production cuts in the Middle East. International oil prices have driven the general rise of downstream chemical products. Under cost support, the center of PTA has moved up, but the overall increase is less than that of PX, resulting in a slight pressure on its processing margin. Overall, PTA will still fluctuate strongly following the upstream cost in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the situation of upstream refineries and its own plant changes [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that PTA will maintain a strong - fluctuating trend in the short - term. The 05 - 09 spread of TA is expected to maintain the positive spread logic in the short - term. The support at the lower price of TA has increased, and short - selling is not recommended in the short - term [12]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **Market News**: On March 4, the closing price of the pure benzene 2604 contract was 6,761 yuan per ton, a change of +3.21%. The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,640 yuan per ton, a month - on - month increase of 280 yuan per ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in South Korea was 878 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 45 US dollars per ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in the US was 969.73 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 26.94 US dollars per ton. The price of Japanese CFR naphtha was 636.63 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.13 US dollars per ton; the spread between Chinese pure benzene and naphtha was 134 US dollars per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 11 US dollars per ton. The non - integrated profit of downstream styrene was 349 (+77) yuan per ton, the profit of caprolactam containing ammonium sulfate was 749.78 (+29.56) yuan per ton, the profit of phenol was - 50 (+327) yuan per ton, the profit of aniline was 1,687 (-87) yuan per ton, and the profit of adipic acid was - 153 (-76) yuan per ton [13][14]. - **Main Logic**: In the energy sector, the recent geopolitical situation has dominated the price trend of crude oil, and the escalation of the geopolitical conflict has led to the rise of crude oil and then pure benzene. In terms of supply and demand, the supply side is affected by oil price fluctuations, and refineries may have the expectation of defensive production cuts. On the demand side, on the one hand, the news of styrene maintenance and restart is intertwined, and the expectation of the main demand for pure benzene has changed. At present, the maintenance volume in March is greater than the restart volume. On the other hand, among the non - styrene downstream, except for caprolactam, which is still reducing production and has a low load, the other downstream products such as adipic acid, phenol, and aniline have performed well recently, with the operation rate and profit recovering simultaneously, which may reflect the recovery of terminal demand [14]. - **Outlook**: Volatility with an upward bias. The crude oil price fluctuates with an upward bias. Although the inventory pressure is still high, the fundamentals in Q1 have improved compared with Q4 [14]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **Market News**: On March 4, according to Longzhong data, the spot price of styrene in East China was 8,210 (+30) yuan per ton, and the basis of the main contract was 128 (0) yuan per ton. The price of pure benzene in East China was 6,730 (+90) yuan per ton, the price of Sinopec ethylene was 6,500 (+400) yuan per ton, the non - integrated cash - flow production cost of styrene was 7,987 (+165) yuan per ton, and the cash - flow profit was 113 (-165) yuan per ton. The price of PS in East China was 8,400 (+100) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of PS was - 200 (+100) yuan per ton; the price of EPS was 9,150 (+100) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of EPS was 400 (400) yuan per ton; the price of ABS was 10,150 (+200) yuan per ton, the cash - flow profit of ABS was 291.88 (+117.41) yuan per ton. The main contract EB2604 opened at 8,190 yuan, reached a high of 8,358 yuan, a low of 7,972 yuan, and closed at 8,213 yuan, an increase of 132 yuan compared with the previous trading day [15]. - **Main Logic**: In the energy sector, the escalation of the geopolitical conflict has led to the rise of crude oil and then styrene. In terms of cost, the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene is stable, and it is difficult to reduce inventory, so it has no effective driving force for styrene. On the supply side, according to Zhuochuang, the Carville plant in the US has stopped for maintenance, and in March in China, several plants such as Gulei, Hengli, Yanchang Refining and Chemical, and Zibo Junchen have new maintenance plans, and Xuyang plans to restart in late March, so the supply of styrene is expected to decrease. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival holiday ends, the operation rate of downstream industries has gradually recovered, and the overall demand is expected to improve. Recently, the profits of 3S have been repaired, and the downstream transactions have maintained a good rhythm. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of EPS load increase and the resumption of work and production of terminals. Overall, styrene will return to inventory reduction in March, and the near - term fundamentals are acceptable. Attention should be paid to crude oil, plant maintenance and restart progress, and the demand after the festival [15]. - **Outlook**: Volatility with an upward bias. The crude oil price fluctuates with an upward bias. Driven by exports and with many plant maintenance plans, styrene may return to inventory reduction in March [15]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: On March 4, according to the CCF, ethylene glycol

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of polysilicon are relatively loose, and the price has broken through the support level and declined. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate continue to be tight, with concerns about supply disruptions. In the short term, the decline in electric vehicle sales and the lack of supply - side policy - driven contraction have affected prices. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, and the supply - demand surplus of lithium ore is expected to narrow [2]. - For industrial silicon, there is still over - supply pressure, and the price will rebound in the short term but be under pressure in the long term. For polysilicon, the inventory is continuously accumulating, and the price is temporarily under pressure but may show a wide - range oscillation. For lithium carbonate, there are disagreements about future demand, and the price will oscillate [3][7][10][11]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Industrial Silicon - **Price Information**: As of March 4, the price of oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang was 8650 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9300 yuan/ton; the price of 421 in Xinjiang was 8850 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 9750 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory Information**: As of last week, the domestic inventory was 462,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. Among them, the market inventory was 186,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%, and the factory inventory was 276,050 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% [7]. - **Production Information**: In February, the output of industrial silicon was 238,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.7%. The cumulative production in 2025 was 4.055 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [7]. - **Export Information**: In December, the export volume of industrial silicon was 59,036 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. The cumulative export volume from January to December was 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6% [7]. - **Main Logic**: The valuation of industrial silicon is low, and it is prone to small - scale rebounds due to news and market sentiment. In the long - term, there is still over - supply pressure as the supply is expected to increase and the demand is weak [7]. - **Outlook**: The silicon price is still under pressure in the long - term and is expected to oscillate [7]. Polysilicon - **Price Information**: On March 4, the average transaction price of N - type dense material was 54.5 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day [8]. - **Warehouse Receipt Information**: On March 4, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 9,430 lots, a decrease of 80 lots from the previous day [8]. - **Import and Export Information**: In December 2025, the export volume of polysilicon was about 1,670.41 tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to December was about 25,115.57 tons. The import volume in December was about 1,872.81 tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to December was about 19,051.01 tons [8]. - **Main Logic**: The production of polysilicon is at a relatively low level due to the dry season. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating, which puts pressure on the price. However, the supply is also shrinking, and the future supply - demand may tighten, so the price may show a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **Outlook**: The price of polysilicon is expected to oscillate widely [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Position Information**: On March 4, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.46% to 153,060 yuan/ton, and the total position decreased by 9,283 lots to 637,547 lots. The morning - session spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 152,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,850 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the evening - session price was 152,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. The morning - session price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 149,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,650 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the evening - session price was 152,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,000 yuan/ton from the previous day. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 600 lots to 37,155 lots [11]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate in March are still strong, but the future performance of the terminal needs to be observed. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is good, maintaining a tight balance. However, the new - energy vehicle sales from January to February are not optimistic, and the price is expected to oscillate before the situation in March - April is clear [11]. - **Outlook**: The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the demand shows signs of weakening, and the price is expected to oscillate [12]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: Specific information is mainly about price, inventory, production, and export as mentioned above [7]. - **Polysilicon**: Specific information is about price, warehouse receipt, and import - export as mentioned above [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Specific information is about price, position, and warehouse receipt as mentioned above [11]. 3. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities on March 4, 2026, shows that the commodity index was 2484.31, an increase of 0.06%; the commodity 20 index was 2838.28, a decrease of 0.33%; the industrial products index was 2398.32, an increase of 1.42% [50]. - **New - energy Commodity Index**: On March 4, 2026, the new - energy commodity index was 505.75, with a daily decline of 2.59%, a decline of 9.68% in the past 5 days, a decline of 14.99% in the past month, and a decline of 0.77% since the beginning of the year [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially came into effect on January 1, 2026. Although the tariff is levied on importers by the EU, it will be passed on to exporting companies, impacting China's steel and aluminum product exports [2][5][76][77]. - High default values for determining embedded emissions in goods will weaken the export competitiveness of China's steel and aluminum products. The default carbon intensity values for most China steel and aluminum products are significantly higher than the CBAM benchmark values, leading to an increase in carbon tariffs [3][6]. - From the perspective of total exports, the impact of CBAM on the steel and aluminum industries in China is not yet significant. However, for specific enterprises with a large proportion of exports to the EU, the formal implementation of CBAM will lead to a significant increase in carbon tariff costs. Enterprises need to optimize carbon emission management and use financial instruments to hedge risks [4][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 CBAM will be implemented on January 1, 2026 - **Historical Evolution of CBAM**: CBAM is part of the "Fit for 55" package announced by the EU in 2021. In 2023, the EU passed legislation for CBAM and initiated the transition period from October 1, 2023, to December 31, 2025. In 2025, the EU revised CBAM, including setting an import volume exemption threshold, revising deadlines, reducing the number of certificates required, and planning to publish annual default carbon prices starting from 2027 [12][13][14]. - **Impact on China's Steel and Aluminum Exports to the EU**: China's exports of CBAM products to the EU rank fifth in volume but first in implicit carbon emissions. The carbon emission costs will be passed on to Chinese export enterprises, impacting the export of steel and aluminum products [22][24]. 3.2 High default values will weaken the export competitiveness of China's steel and aluminum products - **Core of CBAM**: The core of CBAM is to define carbon intensity values. The EU proposes two methods: using actual carbon emission intensity (which needs third - party verification) and using default values published by the EU (which will result in higher carbon tariffs) [32][33][34]. - **China's Higher Default Value of Carbon Intensity**: The EU has set significantly higher default carbon emission intensity values for Chinese products than the CBAM benchmark values, with annual stepwise increases. China's steel and aluminum products exported to the EU face higher default carbon emission intensities in 2026 [39][40]. - **Underestimated Carbon Emission Cost**: The carbon emission costs paid for Chinese export products may have been underestimated. The EU may set a default carbon price for China significantly lower than the domestic carbon emission allowance price [41]. 3.3 The cost of exporting steel and aluminum products from China to the EU will rise sharply - **Carbon Tariff on Steel Products**: Chinese steel product exports to the EU face higher default carbon emission intensity values. If the carbon costs already paid by Chinese companies are not considered and the default values are used, Chinese steel products will face a carbon tariff ranging from CNY389 - CNY3,917 per tonne [42][46]. - **Carbon Tariff on Aluminum Products**: Default carbon intensities for Chinese aluminium products significantly exceed CBAM benchmarks. If the default values are used, Chinese aluminum and aluminum products will face a carbon tariff of CNY1399 - CNY3413 per tonne [53][57]. 3.4 Addressing the Challenges Posed by CBAM for Steel and Aluminum Exporters - **Limited Impact on Total Exports**: The implementation of CBAM has a relatively limited impact on China's total steel and aluminum exports. However, it has a more significant impact on the cost of Chinese steel and aluminum companies exporting to the EU [65][66]. - **Conduct CBAM Carbon Verification**: Some steel and aluminum enterprises in China have actual carbon emission intensities lower than the default values set by the EU. Companies should actively use actual carbon emission data and avoid using default values [67][68][69]. - **Reasonable Use of EUA Futures Hedging**: In the second half of 2025, EU carbon allowance prices rose significantly. The EUA supply and demand have been tight in the long term, which may drive carbon prices upward. Exporting companies can hedge through the EUA futures market to avoid the risk of rising carbon tariff costs [70][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The polysilicon price has continued to decline after the Chinese New Year, and the market is cautious about the industry's "anti-involution" in the short term. The price is still under pressure and may continue to decline towards the cost support area. However, in the medium term, if the supply side gradually contracts, the supply - demand structure may improve marginally, and the polysilicon price is expected to gradually recover and stabilize. In the medium - long term, it may mainly show wide - range fluctuations [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - The polysilicon price has continued to fall after the Chinese New Year. Today, the best - performing main contract has fallen by more than 4% to around 42,000 yuan per ton. On one hand, due to antitrust concerns in January, the "anti - involution" expectation of polysilicon has been continuously shaken, and leading silicon wafer enterprises have planned to strengthen capacity integration and mergers. On the other hand, the demand in the first quarter has been weak, and the industry and warehouse receipt inventories have continued to accumulate, which has dragged down the spot price and in turn affected the futures price [3] Fundamental Situation - Supply side: Leading enterprises have stopped production to consume inventory, and the polysilicon supply in February has further declined. The production in February was 81,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The cumulative production from January to February was 116,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. The production in March is expected to increase slightly, but the overall supply will still remain at a relatively low level of 80,000 - 90,000 tons. - Demand side: With the end of the previous off - season and the approaching window of the cancellation of the photovoltaic tax - refund policy, the production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells in February after the festival are expected to increase. In the future, the inventory accumulated in the polysilicon industry is expected to be consumed under the pattern of continuous supply contraction [4] Summary and Strategy - Summary: The polysilicon price has broken through the cost support of 45,000 yuan per ton. In the short term, without clear policy positive signals, the market is cautious about the "anti - involution" of the industry, and the price is still under pressure. In the medium term, if the supply side contracts, the supply - demand structure may improve, and the price is expected to recover and stabilize. In the medium - long term, it may show wide - range fluctuations. - Strategy: Considering the short - term price pressure and the factor of concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in May, attention can be paid to the reverse arbitrage opportunity between the 06 contract and the far - month contract [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中信期货研究|能源化工专题报告 2026-03-04 地缘局势主导行情，谨防甲醇冲高回落 报告要点 本篇报告从当下市场关注的地缘扰动焦点出发，结合对国内甲醇短期和中 长期的基本面展望，分析目前行情主要由地缘风险主导的现实，后续市场需 警惕盘面回调风险。 摘要 近期甲醇主力合约连续两日涨停，行情强势主要由中东地缘风险溢价驱动， 与伊朗在我国甲醇市场中的重要地位密切相关。作为全球第二大甲醇生产 国，伊朗甲醇产能达 1716 万吨，占全球总产能比例约 9.2%。2025 年我国 自伊朗进口甲醇超 792 万吨，占总进口量超 55%、表观消费量约 7%，是我 国最核心的甲醇进口来源。2 月 28 日美以联合袭击后，伊朗于 3 月 1 日宣 称关闭霍尔木兹海峡，阻断波斯湾地区甲醇海运出口通道。其原定于 3 月 的装置复产计划亦受阻推迟，市场担忧进口缺位，带动期货及内地现货同 步上行，持货商挺价惜售，部分企业竞拍溢价成交。 但从基本面角度出发，盘面回调风险不可忽视。短期来看，截至 2 月 27 日 沿海甲醇港口库存达 144.67 万吨，同比高出 35%，处于近五年高位。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term (half - month horizon), with the marginal release of high - valuation pressures and rising policy - speculation expectations ahead of key meetings, iron ore futures prices have the potential for a phased rebound, but it's difficult to break above the previous high of 830 RMB/t, and the upward resistance near the 20 - day moving average around 770 RMB/t should be focused on [1][4][37][43][63]. - In the medium term (two - month horizon), the logic will return to fundamentals, and the main market theme will shift from expectation - driven to reality verification. Selling on rallies is a more cost - effective strategy as the structural contradiction of high supply and high inventory is difficult to alleviate and may intensify, putting downward pressure on ore prices. To achieve de - stocking by forcing supply reductions, the iron ore price needs to drop below 90 USD/t [2][13][38][40][63][65]. - In the medium to long term (May to September), the market will enter a data verification period, focusing on supply - demand rebalancing, including overseas steel demand recovery, the effectiveness of the negative feedback mechanism, and the actual pace of new overseas capacity commissioning. If prices drop to absolute lows in the first half of the year, far - month contracts offer good value for buying on dips [3][5][39][64]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Easing Valuation Pressures May Prompt A Pre - Meeting Tactical Rebound - Although fundamentals are weakening, iron ore prices have corrected by about 9% from their peak this year, releasing high - valuation risks. Global shipments have declined month - on - month, and early selling pressure has largely materialized, weakening short - term downward momentum [11]. - With major meetings in early March, there is room for policy - driven market speculation. Given the partial release of valuation risks, ongoing hot metal output recovery, and weather disruptions, iron ore futures are likely to have a tactical rebound, but breaking above the previous high will be challenging [12]. 3.2 Returning to Fundamentals: Medium - Term Sell - on - Rally Strategy Unchanged 3.2.1 Supply: Elevated Non - Mainstream Shipments to Sustain High Supply Pressure - Fewer weather disruptions in Australia, incremental volumes from the Onslow project, and sustained production from non - mainstream miners have pushed the year - on - year growth of cumulative iron ore shipments to a multi - year high. As of February 20, global cumulative iron ore shipments increased by 29.66 Mt YoY, with non - mainstream miners contributing over half of the actual supply growth. If iron ore prices hold, non - mainstream shipments are likely to stay elevated, leading to continuous high supply pressure [14][15][44]. 3.2.2 Demand: Hot Metal Resumption Trails Pre - Holiday Estimates, Short - Term Upside Drive Limited - On the demand side, iron ore demand is analyzed from domestic hot metal production and global steel and iron ore demand. Hot metal production is expected to recover seasonally, but end - user demand for finished steel is flat, and high inventories need time to digest, so short - term hot metal recovery may fall short of pre - holiday expectations, making it difficult to drive prices up [20][51]. - In the long term, global steel consumption is projected to grow at about 1.25%, but this needs long - term data verification. If overseas steel demand recovers, the oversupply pressure on iron ore may ease marginally by mid - year, presenting a good opportunity to build long positions in far - month contracts on dips [21][50][54]. 3.2.3 Inventory: Port Stocks at Historic Highs; De - stocking Pressure Remains - Current 45 - port iron ore inventories have reached the highest level since 2016. Since 2016, the iron ore market has experienced three major accumulation cycles and two de - stocking cycles [25][57]. - The current significant inventory accumulation is due to continuous supply expansion from overseas mines, especially non - mainstream ones. The market may evolve in three ways: prices forcing supply reductions, macro stimulus driving demand recovery, or industry chain profit reshaping and high - inventory normalization. The report leans towards the first path [31][61][62]. 3.3 Conclusion - Short - term: With high - valuation pressure release and policy - speculation expectations, there is a potential for a phased rebound, but it's hard to break above the previous high, and attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average resistance [37][63]. - Medium - term: The logic returns to fundamentals, and selling on rallies is a better strategy as the high - supply and high - inventory contradiction is difficult to alleviate, and the iron ore price needs to drop below 90 USD/t for de - stocking [38][63]. - Medium - to long - term: The market enters a data verification period, focusing on supply - demand rebalancing. If prices drop to lows, far - month contracts are good for buying on dips [39][64]. 3.4 Investment Strategy - Strategy: Short i2605 on rallies / short hedge on rallies. - Logic: After key meetings, the market enters a transition window. If positive expectations fall short, the main trading theme will return to industry reality. The high - supply and high - inventory contradiction puts downward pressure on ore prices. Maintaining a short - on - rally approach has a higher risk - reward ratio. - For investors with steady risk preferences, buying put options on rallies can control drawdown risks as option premium costs are relatively low [40][41][65].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On March 3, 2026, the platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped, with the platinum main - contract falling 8.44% to 570.30 yuan/gram and the palladium main - contract falling 6.16% to 433.90 yuan/gram [1] - For platinum, due to the strengthening of the US dollar index, the price has declined. The short - term safe - haven sentiment's boost to precious metals is weakening, and the market is trading on the postponed interest - rate cut expectation. In the long - term, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for the release of platinum price elasticity. The expected trend is oscillating upward [2] - For palladium, the market sentiment has weakened, and the price has followed the decline of platinum. The supply side has uncertainties, and the demand side faces structural pressure. The long - term supply - demand is loosening, but short - term supply disturbances still exist. The expected trend is also oscillating upward [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: The situation in the Middle East (US - Iran) is disturbing the precious metals market. The tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz has increased global energy transportation costs and oil prices. If the strait is blocked for a long time, it may lead to global inflation, postponed Fed rate cuts, and increased economic recession risks. The short - term safe - haven sentiment's boost to precious metals is weakening, and the market is trading on the postponed interest - rate cut expectation, causing the US dollar index to strengthen and platinum prices to decline. In the long - term, the damage to the Fed's independence and the loosening of the global political and economic order will lead to the long - term weakening of the US dollar index, which is beneficial for platinum prices. However, the duration and intensity of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict also have an impact on the US dollar and platinum prices [2] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals are resilient, and the US dollar credit is weakening. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate upward [2] Palladium - **Main Logic**: The supply side of palladium has continuous uncertainties. The US has made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering a new round of sanctions on Russian palladium. The supply disturbances continue, and the spot shortage supports the price. The demand side still faces structural pressure. In general, the long - term supply - demand of palladium is loosening, and short - term supply disturbances still exist, but it mainly follows the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] - **Outlook**: The spot is in short supply, and the US dollar credit is weakening. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate upward [3] Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: No specific data provided - **Specialty Index**: The commodity index is 2482.90, up 1.00%; the commodity 20 index is 2847.65, up 0.83%; the industrial products index is 2364.70, up 1.43% [49] Plate Index - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 3, 2026, the index was 2717.21, with a daily decline of 0.58%, a 5 - day increase of 0.26%, a 1 - month decline of 3.99%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.16% [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market's risk - aversion demand has increased, and the short - end of the bond market is relatively strong. In the stock index futures market, small - cap stocks have pulled back, and it is necessary to wait for the end of the negative feedback. In the stock index options market, the risk - aversion demand has risen. In the bond market, the short - end is relatively strong [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Small - cap stocks have pulled back, waiting for the end of the negative feedback [8]. - **Logic**: On Tuesday, the equity market oscillated lower, with the decline of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 around 4%. The market trading volume increased to 3.1 trillion. The continuous increase in positions of IC and IM implies the intervention of hedging funds, and the overall sentiment is cautious. The pull - back is related to geopolitical risks. Also, there are two deeper factors: the crowding - out of small - cap stocks by heavy - weight stocks, and the approaching Two Sessions, which historically brings a callback pressure on the stock market after the meetings [3][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold IM with a half - position [8]. 3.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: The risk - aversion demand has increased [8]. - **Logic**: The equity market fell with increased volume. The trading volume of financial options increased again, and the implied volatility rose across the board. The demand for buying put options for risk - aversion increased, pushing up the trading PCR. The closing of short - option positions led to a decline in the holding PCR, and the skew index continued to rise, indicating a contraction in market risk preference. On the other hand, the ratio PCR rose slightly, and the call - option holdings increased significantly, reflecting that some funds are gambling on short - term rebound opportunities [3][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Use option - buying for defense [8]. 3.3 Bond Index Futures - **View**: The short - end of the bond market is relatively strong [9]. - **Logic**: Most of the main contracts of bond index futures rose yesterday. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds showed a differentiated trend, with most short - end yields declining. Although the central bank's open - market operations turned to net liquidity withdrawal, the inter - bank market liquidity at the beginning of the month was still relatively loose, supporting the short - end of the bond market. The equity market was weak due to risk - aversion sentiment, but the stock - bond seesaw effect was not obvious. The long - end bond yields mostly rose, perhaps because some funds were worried about policy expectations and chose to take profits as an important meeting approached. The net investment scale of Treasury bond trading in February announced by the central bank after the market yesterday did not exceed expectations and had little impact on the bond market. In the short term, risk - aversion sentiment drives the bond market, but as the important meeting approaches, policy - expectation games may heat up, and the bond market may be volatile [4][9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Trend strategy: oscillate. Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at low basis levels. Basis strategy: pay attention to long - end arbitrage opportunities. Curve strategy: pay attention to the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y yield curve in the short term [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has escalated and the US dollar has strengthened, causing precious metals to experience a high - level decline after continuous rebounds. Gold has fluctuated after four consecutive days of gains, and silver has had a significant intraday correction with a notable increase in volatility. The market has entered a tug - of - war stage between "safe - haven premium" and "interest rate expectation repricing" [1]. - For gold, the safe - haven premium remains, but the pressure from the US dollar has increased. Its mid - term direction still depends on the trends of real interest rates and the US dollar [2]. - For silver, its high - beta property amplifies price fluctuations. If the risk premium continues and energy prices remain high, silver still has elasticity under the "safe - haven + industrial expectation" framework; if the US dollar and yields continue to strengthen, the decline of silver prices may be greater than that of gold [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Gold - **Logic** - The escalation of the Middle East conflict and the transportation risks in the Strait of Hormuz have not subsided, and safe - haven buying still provides risk premium support for gold prices [2]. - Rising energy prices have strengthened the expectation of a resurgence of inflation in the US. The rebound of US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar index have exerted valuation pressure on non - interest - bearing assets [2]. - The market's expectation of the Fed's first interest rate cut has been postponed, and the real interest rate path has been repriced, triggering adjustments in high - position long positions [2]. - **Outlook** - If the conflict continues and energy prices rise, gold still has dual support of safe - haven and inflation resistance; if the US dollar remains strong and real interest rates continue to rise, gold prices may enter a stage of high - level oscillation and emotional fluctuations [2]. 3.2 Silver - **Logic** - Geopolitical risks provide phased support for silver prices, but its financial property makes it more sensitive to fluctuations in the US dollar and interest rates [3]. - Rising energy prices and rising inflation expectations have led to cost - transmission expectations for industrial metals, enhancing the structural elasticity of silver [3]. - The closure of the UAE airspace and flight cancellations in the Gulf region have hindered the air transportation of precious metals, causing a temporary tightening of spot circulation. Coupled with rapid capital switching, the amplitude of silver prices has significantly increased [3]. - **Outlook** - If the risk premium continues and energy prices remain high, silver still has elasticity under the "safe - haven + industrial expectation" framework; if the US dollar and yields continue to strengthen, the decline of silver prices may be greater than that of gold [3]. 3.3 Commodity Index (2026 - 03 - 03) - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2482.90, up 1.00%; the commodity 20 index is 2847.65, up 0.83%; the industrial products index is 2364.70, up 1.43% [44]. - **Precious Metals Index**: The index value on March 3, 2026, is 4593.83. The daily decline is 0.76%, the increase in the past 5 days is 2.99%, the decline in the past 1 month is 6.57%, and the increase since the beginning of the year is 20.12% [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may lead to oil production cuts by oil - producing countries, and aromatics have the potential for a catch - up rally [2]. - Crude oil is leading the chemical industry to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situation dominates oil prices, with a widening gap between domestic and foreign markets. In the short - term, the reduction of effective crude oil supply due to geopolitical tensions drives up oil prices. The outlook is oscillating and bullish [3][8]. - **Asphalt**: The geopolitical premium is being released. The absolute price of asphalt is in an over - valued range, and its medium - to - long - term valuation is expected to decline. The outlook is oscillating [3][9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical premium of fuel oil has risen significantly due to the US - Iran conflict. In the long - term, the substitution of fuel oil power generation demand in the Middle East is a negative factor. The outlook is oscillating [3][9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has risen sharply following crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, it has a low valuation and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil. The outlook is oscillating [3][11]. - **Methanol**: Driven by the geopolitical situation, it is oscillating and bullish. The market is trading the geopolitical premium, and there is still upward potential in the short - term [3][24]. - **Urea**: Supported by demand and guided by policies, it is oscillating and consolidating. Supply is stable at a high level, while demand from the agricultural sector is strong and industrial demand is recovering. The outlook is oscillating [3][25]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: The futures price hit the daily limit, with cost and supply - demand factors resonating. In the short - term, it may maintain a strong performance. The outlook is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][19]. - **PX**: Some PX plants have reduced their loads preventively, with cost and supply - demand factors in resonance. In the short - term, the fundamentals are slightly bullish. The outlook is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][13]. - **PTA**: Supported by the strong upstream cost, the center of gravity has shifted upward. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and bullish trend in the short - term [3][14]. - **Short - Fiber**: Significantly supported by cost, but the market shows a fear - of - high - prices mentality. It is expected to follow the upstream trend and maintain an oscillating and bullish trend in the short - term [3][20]. - **Bottle Chips**: The sharp rise in crude oil and upstream raw materials has driven the recovery of downstream trading sentiment. The absolute price follows the raw materials, and the support for processing margins has increased [3][22]. - **Propylene (PL)**: Significantly boosted by the raw material end, it is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][31]. - **PP**: Boosted by crude oil, methanol, and propane at the raw material end, it is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][30]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, it continues to strengthen. The outlook is oscillating and bullish in the short - term [3][29]. - **Styrene**: Affected by device maintenance and crude oil fluctuations, it is oscillating and bullish [3][17]. - **PVC**: Affected by geopolitical disturbances, it is cautiously optimistic. The outlook is oscillating and bullish, but it should be vigilant against the weakening of the market when the geopolitical conflict eases [3][34]. - **Caustic Soda**: Affected by supply expectations, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. The outlook is oscillating [3][36]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring 2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spreads**: Data on inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, including the latest values and changes [38]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [39]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: Data on inter - variety spreads of different varieties and different contract months are provided, including the latest values and changes [40]. 2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific summarized data is provided in the given text, but the monitoring of multiple varieties such as methanol, urea, etc. is mentioned. 3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index on March 3, 2026, are presented, along with their corresponding changes [280][282].