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黄金四季报:GOLD IS THE NEW BOND
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold has broken through and risen after a four - month consolidation, with a year - to - date increase of nearly 40%. Given the expected consecutive interest rate cuts in September, October, and December 2025, and macro - hedging against concerns about the Fed's independence and the US dollar credit system, there is still room for gold prices to rise [3]. - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act", soaring tariff revenues, and the postponement of long - term Treasury bond issuance plans seem to improve the US fiscal outlook. However, due to rigid fiscal spending constraints, a 6% deficit rate has become the "new normal", which fundamentally supports the gold price [3]. - The weakening of the Fed's independence is another important factor driving up the gold price. Political intervention in monetary policy has increased, shaking market confidence in the traditional policy framework [3]. - Although global central bank gold purchases have decreased since the second quarter, central banks, especially those of Russia, Turkey, and China, will continue to diversify their reserve assets by reducing US Treasury holdings and increasing gold, and the "Gold is the new bond" logic persists, and the gold - silver ratio will not fall continuously [3]. - As the Fed returns to the interest - rate cut cycle, the inflow of net long positions in the gold ETF and futures markets will create additional demand [3]. - Stablecoins, as derivatives of the US dollar system, cannot alleviate the huge financing gap of US Treasury bonds and thus cannot shake the upward trend of gold prices in this cycle [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Review - The median projections for real GDP growth, unemployment rate, PCE inflation, core PCE inflation, and the federal funds rate from 2025 to the long - run are presented, showing changes compared to the June projections. For example, the projected real GDP growth in 2025 is 1.6% (June projection: 1.4%) [8]. - Powell's remarks at the press conference were neutral with a hawkish tilt. He did not hint at a series of future interest - rate cuts, and the SEP raised GDP projections for the next two years and the inflation rate for next year while lowering the unemployment rate, indicating that risk - management interest - rate cuts are expected to boost the economy [10]. 3.2 Fiscal Track Seemingly Shows Signs of Recovery - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was signed into law on July 4. It includes tax cuts and spending adjustments. The CBO predicts it will increase the basic deficit by about $3.4 trillion in the next decade, and with additional interest costs, the deficit increase could reach $4.1 trillion. If tariff revenues are lower than expected, the deficit improvement goal will be harder to achieve [15]. - US tariff revenues are rising at an unprecedented slope. In April, the monthly revenue was $17.4 billion, and in August, it soared to $31.4 billion. If the third - quarter momentum continues, the 2026 fiscal - year tariff revenue could approach $380 billion, which may offset most of the costs of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" in an optimistic scenario. The average effective tariff rate faced by US consumers has reached 17.4%, the highest since 1935 [18]. - From April to June, the term premium soared nearly 60 bps due to factors such as the deterioration of the fiscal path. In July, the Treasury Department will keep the auction scale of nominal notes and bonds unchanged in the next few quarters and expand the long - term Treasury bond buyback program, relying more on short - term bonds to finance the deficit [22]. 3.3 Structural Problems of Fiscal Deficit Remain Severe - In the 2024 fiscal year, total fiscal expenditure was $6.8 trillion (23.7% of GDP), with mandatory expenditures accounting for a large proportion. By the 2035 fiscal year, the fiscal deficit is expected to surge to $2.7 trillion, mainly driven by increased social security, medical insurance, and net interest expenditures. Any attempt to cut social welfare or net interest expenditures has significant negative impacts [29]. - As of August 2025, the federal fiscal deficit reached $1.97 trillion, a 4% year - on - year increase. Although tariff revenue increases and the "DOGE plan" can partially offset the deficit pressure, they are insignificant compared to the large debt stock. Federal fiscal revenue has returned to the pre - pandemic long - term equilibrium level, but fiscal expenditure far exceeds it, making a 6% deficit rate the new normal [34]. - According to CRFB's prediction, under Trump's leadership, the federal deficit from 2025 - 2035 is expected to be between 5.6% - 6.5% of GDP, much higher than previous levels. This may lead to an increase in the term premium of US Treasury bonds, a sell - off of bonds, and an increase in the demand for gold as a hedging asset [39]. 3.4 Central Bank Gold - Buying Behavior in 2025 Has Not Weakened - High - quality research infers that China's official gold purchases may be completed through the London LBMA. From January to July 2025, UK customs records showed that China imported over 137 tons of gold, much higher than the official figure of 20.8 tons. The scale of China's central bank gold purchases decreased after April, with a 46% quarter - on - quarter reduction in Q2 compared to Q1 [44]. - The research report of the European Central Bank shows that by the end of 2024, the proportion of gold in official foreign exchange reserves reached 20%, exceeding the euro. Central banks such as those of Russia, Turkey, and China are increasing gold holdings while reducing US dollar assets, especially US Treasury bonds [50]. - Since 2022, the gold - silver ratio has broken through the 50 - 80 range of the past 30 years. After April, the slowdown of central bank gold - buying led to a temporary decline in the gold - silver ratio. However, if central bank gold - buying continues and silver performs unstably during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the gold - silver ratio is unlikely to fall in the long term [55]. 3.5 Decline in US Government Agency Credibility: A Strong Catalyst for Gold Prices - Although the personnel structure of the Fed's FOMC has not changed substantially, political intervention has increased significantly. If Cook is removed, there is a risk of replacing the 12 regional Fed presidents. Also, if Powell continues to serve as a Fed governor after his term as chairman ends, it may limit the government's influence on the composition of the monetary policy committee [58][61]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for maintaining the credibility of monetary policy. When the market fears political intervention in monetary policy, investors tend to buy gold as a hedge, driving up the gold price [61]. 3.6 Fed Interest - Rate Cuts: Another Driver of Gold Price Increase - Since April, new non - farm payrolls have declined, and the ratio of job vacancies to the unemployed has reached a new low since the pandemic. In August, core CPI showed resilience, but there was no widespread and continuous price pressure. As a result, the Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 bps on September 18 [66]. - In the four weeks leading up to September 17, global gold ETF holdings increased by 74 tons, and COMEX gold futures non - commercial net long positions increased by about 49,000 contracts. With the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle starting, the decline in yields will drive up gold demand [67]. 3.7 Stablecoins Are Essentially an Extension of the US Dollar System - The "GENIUS Act" aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, requiring issuers to hold high - liquidity reserve assets. The total market value of USDT and USDC, which account for over 90% of the stablecoin market, is about $250 billion, while the public's US Treasury bond holdings exceed $29 trillion. Currently, stablecoins are not significant enough to impact the US Treasury bond market [78]. - Stablecoins can only absorb part of short - term US Treasury bonds and cannot fill the trillion - level fiscal financing gap. For example, Tether (USDT)'s reserve assets are mainly short - term Treasury bonds, but its overall scale is limited compared to the US Treasury bond market [79].
氯碱四季报:V:震荡依旧;SH:等待驱动
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC market in the fourth quarter is expected to first rebound with the macro - situation and then return to fundamentals and delivery logic. For trading strategies, it includes unilateral interval operations, option strategies, and month - spread strategies [3][78]. - The caustic soda market in the fourth quarter is expected to have short - term price stimulation due to alumina stockpiling and then return to seasonal surplus. Trading strategies involve unilateral trading, arbitrage, and option strategies [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market 1. Three - quarter Supply Review - The overall operation of existing PVC plants was stable in the first quarter, and seasonal maintenance in the second and third quarters affected supply. The average operation rate in the first three quarters was about 76.8%, and the output was about 17.948 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. There were many new plant commissions from July to September [3][16]. 2. Three - quarter Demand Review - The apparent demand in the first three quarters was about 15.16 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Terminal demand was at a seasonal low, and speculative demand was average. Real estate data was weak, and cement demand and prices had been weak since 2024. Exports from January to July were relatively strong, with PVC powder exports of 2.291 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 830,000 tons (56.9%), while floor exports decreased by 11.15% year - on - year [20][32][34]. 3. Three - quarter Inventory Review - In the third quarter, inventory shifted from upstream to mid - stream, and both started to accumulate recently. Due to weak demand and the futures price being higher than the spot price, there was a lot of selling hedging by upstream and futures - cash traders, and inventory shifted to the delivery warehouse. As of September 17, the warehouse receipt volume was 110,900, the highest in history [42][46]. 4. Fourth - quarter Supply Outlook - There will be some maintenance in October, and then maintenance will decrease. There is a possibility of capacity exit in existing plants. Newly commissioned plants have been postponed but will be concentrated recently, and the supply pressure will be reflected in the fourth quarter [52][53][57]. 5. Fourth - quarter Demand Outlook - It is difficult for domestic demand to have incremental demand in the fourth quarter. In terms of exports, attention should be paid to the impact of India's anti - dumping on China. India has strong demand, but the anti - dumping tax rate has been adjusted to $122 - 232 per ton [3][71]. 6. Fourth - quarter Trading Strategies - Strategy 1: Unilateral interval operations. PVC is still in an oversupply situation, but low valuation and falling caustic soda prices provide support. It is expected to trade on macro - improvement factors from September to October and then return to fundamentals. - Strategy 2: Option strategies. Sell out - of - the - money put options on V2601 at relatively low prices and sell out - of - the - money call options on V2601 after the price rebounds. - Strategy 3: Month - spread strategies. Go for positive spreads between January and May contracts and look for positive spread opportunities between May and September contracts [78]. Caustic Soda Market 1. Caustic Soda Spot and Futures Market Review - The spot price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to factors such as maintenance, downstream replenishment, and changes in liquid chlorine prices. The futures market has also shown significant fluctuations, affected by factors like inventory accumulation, market sentiment, and alumina stockpiling [81][83]. 2. Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Review - The output in the first three quarters was about 31.703 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.42%. There were new plant commissions in the third quarter, and some capacity exited. Non - aluminum demand improved in Q3, and paper - making operations were divided. Exports from January to July 2025 were 2.398 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 51.3% [85][95]. 3. Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Outlook - There is a total of 1.05 million tons of capacity to be commissioned, mainly from September to October. The commissioning compliance rate is 50 - 60%. It is expected that the operation rate will recover in late September, decline in October, and remain relatively high from November to December. There is still new demand for alumina commissioning and stockpiling in the fourth quarter, but attention should be paid to the impact of alumina over - supply on demand [98][100][103]. 4. Caustic Soda Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The near - term is weak, and it is advisable to buy low - priced contracts for the peak season. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse spreads from non - stockpiling months to stockpiling months, positive spreads from stockpiling months to off - peak months, long caustic soda and short alumina during alumina commissioning and stockpiling, and short caustic soda and long alumina when alumina is in over - supply and production is cut [138].
白糖四季报:增产周期下压制明显
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the sugar industry is neutral. The potential shortfall in sugar production in Brazil's Centre - South region is offset by the significant downward pressure on raw sugar prices due to the global sugar production surplus cycle. [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market is in a range - bound pattern. After Brazil's sugar production becomes clearer, prices have lifted temporarily due to India's lower - than - expected production increase. The market is currently in the process of finding a bottom, with the new sugar cost providing support at the lower end and the difference between the expected and actual production increase setting the upper limit. [3][6] - In the international market, the 2025/26 sugarcane crushing season in Brazil's Centre - South region is expected to yield 4000 - 4060 million tons, a slight downward adjustment. India is expected to increase production to 3500 million tons in the 2025/26 season, and Thailand will maintain a slight production increase. [3][27] - In the domestic market, as of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China reached 955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 130 million tons (15.7%), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 85.6%, 2.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The sugar industrial inventory in July was 161 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10 million tons (5.8%). [3] - The profit margin for out - of - quota sugar imports has opened up, leading to a surge in sugar imports from July to September. The control on syrup imports has been partially relaxed, and it is expected that syrup imports will increase in the future. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Foreign Production - **Brazil**: The market initially had a high - yield expectation of 4200 - 4600 million tons for Brazil. Although the crushing process was delayed by heavy rain, the high - yield expectation continued to suppress the market. However, various institutions have started to lower their forecasts for Brazil's final sugar production. In the 2025/26 season, the expected sugar production in Brazil's Centre - South region is 4000 - 4060 million tons, a slight decrease. In the first half of August, the sugar production in Brazil's Centre - South region was 340.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.07%. The cumulative sugar production from the beginning of the season to the first half of August was 1565.5 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.22%. [3][6][18] - **India**: The Indian Sugar Mills Association's initial estimate is that the raw sugar production will be close to 3500 million tons. After deducting the amount used for ethanol production (400 - 450 million tons), the net sugar production will be between 3050 - 3100 million tons. [43] - **Thailand**: Hedgepoint Global Markets revised the forecast for Thailand's sugarcane crushing volume in the 2025/26 season to 100 million tons, mainly due to favorable weather conditions. Thailand's production increase expectation remains largely unchanged, pending verification after the start of the crushing season. [47] Domestic Production and Sales - As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in China reached 955 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 130 million tons (15.7%), and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 85.6%, 2.7 percentage points faster than the same period last year. However, from July to August, the sales of Guangxi sugar slowed down significantly due to the impact of imported sugar. [3][83] Import Profit - The profit margin for out - of - quota sugar imports has opened up, and it is expected that there will be a large - scale influx of imported sugar from July to September. The control on syrup imports has been partially relaxed, and it is expected that syrup imports will increase in the future. China is expected to import about 80 million tons of sugar in September, a record high for the year. As the domestic - foreign positive spread materializes, the profit margin for out - of - quota imports is expected to narrow and eventually close in the fourth quarter. [3][63] Overall Inventory - In July, the sugar industrial inventory was 161 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10 million tons (5.8%), showing a slightly positive trend. [3] Alcohol - to - Gasoline Ratio - The alcohol - to - gasoline ratio has slightly increased to 0.6737, indicating a slight advantage for ethanol, approaching the equilibrium point. [3] Raw - Refined Sugar Price Spread - The raw - refined sugar price spread is at $120 per ton, indicating normal demand for raw sugar. [3] Market Trends - The raw sugar market is in the process of finding a bottom. The high - yield expectation for Brazil has been suppressing the market, but as the production situation becomes clearer, the price has shown a temporary upward adjustment. The domestic sugar market has been strong due to good production and sales in the early stage, but the price has declined since July due to the increase in imports. [6][9] - In terms of price spreads, the basis has slightly widened due to the recent rapid decline in the futures price. The 9 - 1 spread ended in a reverse spread as expected, and the 1 - 5 spread is currently stable but may turn into a reverse spread in the future. [92]
碳酸锂周报2025/9/8-20250909
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamentals have no trend - driving force. The supply output remains stable with the increase in the spodumene operation rate and the launch of new production lines, while the demand continues to grow month - on - month. The inventory pressure is relatively limited from the perspective of the inventory - to - sales ratio. The market is still sensitive to the uncertainty of the mining end, resulting in continuous price fluctuations. It is recommended to operate with a light position in the short term and wait for the actual processing results of the mining end to be determined for pricing [4][6]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate is bullish. Last week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 6,850 yuan/ton to 74,800 yuan/ton [4]. - The monthly spread is neutral with no new driving factors [4]. - The available inventory of lithium ore at ports is bearish. As of September 5, the total inventory of domestic main - port traders and warehouses for sale decreased by 12,000 tons to 93,000 tons compared with August 29 [4]. - The import price of lithium ore is bullish. Last week, the CIF prices of Australian and Brazilian spodumene concentrates decreased by 45 US dollars/ton to 850 US dollars/ton respectively [4]. - The domestic price of lithium ore is bullish. Last week, the price of domestic spodumene concentrate with 5% - 5.5% decreased by 360 yuan/ton, and the price of domestic lepidolite concentrate with 2.0% - 2.5% decreased by 110 yuan/ton [4]. - The production of lithium carbonate is bearish. Last week, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons [4]. - The cost of lithium carbonate is bullish. Last week, the production cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate decreased by 1,440 yuan/ton to 75,293 yuan/ton, and the production cost of externally purchased lepidolite decreased by 2,539 yuan/ton to 78,868 yuan/ton [4]. - The inventory (including warehouse receipts) of lithium carbonate is bullish. As of September 4, the total inventory of lithium carbonate (including warehouse receipts) decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other lithium carbonate decreased by 3,861 tons, increased by 2,407 tons, and increased by 410 tons respectively to 39,475 tons, 55,207 tons, and 45,410 tons. As of September 5, the registered warehouse receipts totaled 36,631 tons, an increase of 6,744 tons compared with August 29 [4]. - The profit of ternary materials is neutral. From August 28 to September 4, the production profit of 523 - type ternary materials increased by 5,288 yuan/ton to - 9,199 yuan/ton, and the production profit of 811 - type increased by 4,730 yuan/ton to - 277 yuan/ton [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of ternary materials is bullish. Last week, the operation rate of ternary materials increased by 0 percentage points to 50.97% [4]. - The inventory of ternary materials is bearish. As of September 4, the weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased by 188 tons to 17,644 tons [4]. - The inventory of lithium iron phosphate is bearish. As of September 4, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 263 tons to 94,756 tons [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Lithium Carbonate Price - The futures price fluctuated widely. The main LC2511 contract opened at 77,000 yuan/ton, closed at 74,260 yuan/ton, with a high of 77,420 yuan/ton and a low of 71,120 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.78% [13]. - The spot price increased significantly week - on - week. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 6,850 yuan/ton. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained flat at 2,250 yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate increased by 3,550 yuan/ton to 800 yuan/ton [20]. 3.2 Lithium Ore - The domestic spot price and import price of lithium ore decreased. The average prices of domestic spodumene concentrates with 3% - 4%, 4% - 5%, and 5% - 5.5% decreased by 325, 345, and 360 yuan/ton to 3,265, 4,845, and 6,090 yuan/ton respectively. The average prices of domestic lepidolite concentrates with 1.5% - 2.0% and 2.0% - 2.5% decreased by 92.5 and 110 yuan/ton to 1,157.5 and 1,865 yuan/ton respectively. The CIF prices of imported spodumene ores with 1.2% - 1.5%, 2% - 2.5%, and 3% - 4% decreased by 2.5, 4, and 6 US dollars/ton respectively. The CIF prices of Australian and Brazilian spodumene concentrates decreased by 45 US dollars/ton to 850 US dollars/ton respectively [25]. - The available inventory of lithium ore at ports decreased week - on - week. As of September 5, the total inventory of domestic main - port traders and warehouses for sale decreased by 12,000 tons to 93,000 tons. The spot inventory of domestic lithium ore traders in major ports decreased by 12,000 tons to 83,000 tons, and the inventory for sale in domestic warehouses (excluding factory raw material inventory) remained unchanged at 10,000 tons. As of August 2025, the raw material inventory of lithium salt plants totaled 100,602 tons, an increase of 1,217 tons (converted to LCE) [32]. 3.3 Mid - stream (Lithium Carbonate Production) - Weekly production: Last week, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 389 tons to 19,419 tons. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes increased by 160, 100, and 78 tons to 12,409, 2,600, and 2,593 tons respectively. In different regions, the weekly production in Qinghai, Jiangxi, and Sichuan increased by 50, decreased by 5, and increased by 190 tons to 2,660, 6,255, and 4,730 tons respectively. The weekly operation rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 48.1% [39]. - Monthly production: In September 2025, the production is expected to increase by 1,490 tons to 86,730 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene, lepidolite, salt lakes, and recycling is expected to increase by 3,920, decrease by 2,380, decrease by 410, and increase by 360 tons to 57,250, 11,320, 10,510, and 7,650 tons respectively. In August, the production reached 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2%, slightly higher than the initial expectation [39]. - Production cost and profit: The production cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) decreased by 1,440 yuan/ton to 75,293 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 3,404 yuan/ton to - 1,625 yuan/ton. The production cost of externally purchased lepidolite concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%) decreased by 2,539 yuan/ton to 78,868 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 2,228 yuan/ton to - 7,201 yuan/ton. Similar cost and profit changes occurred for other raw materials [44]. - Inventory: As of September 4, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1,044 tons to 140,092 tons. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and other lithium carbonate decreased by 3,861 tons, increased by 2,407 tons, and increased by 410 tons respectively. As of September 5, the registered warehouse receipts totaled 36,631 tons, an increase of 6,744 tons compared with August 29 [48]. 3.4 Cathode Materials - Ternary materials: Last week, the prices of different ternary material products fluctuated between - 650 yuan/ton and + 50 yuan/ton. The production in September is expected to reach 72,330 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. In August, the production reached 73,440 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4,800 tons or 7%, slightly higher than the initial expectation. As of September 4, the weekly inventory decreased by 188 tons to 17,644 tons. From August 28 to September 4, the production profit of 523 - type ternary materials increased by 5,288 yuan/ton to - 9,199 yuan/ton, and the production profit of 811 - type increased by 4,730 yuan/ton to - 277 yuan/ton [61]. - Lithium iron phosphate: Last week, the prices of power - type, low - end, and mid - high - end lithium iron phosphate decreased by 1,185, 1,140, and 1,185 yuan/ton respectively. As of September 4, the inventory increased by 263 tons to 94,756 tons. The production in September is expected to reach 335,250 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6%. In August, the production reached 316,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,700 tons or 9%, higher than the initial expectation [63]. - Cobalt acid lithium: The production in September is expected to reach 12,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. In August, the production reached 12,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.8%, significantly higher than the initial expectation [71]. - Manganese acid lithium: The production in September is expected to reach 11,887 tons, a month - on - month increase of 650 tons or 6%. In August, the production reached 11,237 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 433 tons or - 4% [71]. 3.5 Batteries - Production: In August, the total domestic battery production reached 160.35 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 16.34 GWh. The production of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries reached 32.12 GWh and 123.01 GWh respectively, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 GWh and 15.13 GWh respectively. In September, the total battery production is expected to reach 168.39 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 8.04 GWh. The production of ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to reach 32.75 GWh and 130.12 GWh respectively, a month - on - month increase of 0.63 GWh and 7.11 GWh respectively [76]. - Inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio: The total inventory of domestic battery cells decreased. As of July 2025, the inventories of power and energy - storage batteries were 166.9 GWh and 44.6 GWh respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 GWh and 4.1 GWh respectively. In July 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio of energy - storage batteries decreased to 0.92 months [79].
PVC周报:低估值的支撑-20250909
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is neutral, with some aspects having a neutral - to - bullish or neutral - to - bearish tendency [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Fundamentally, PVC production has increased, and the industry chain has seen double inventory accumulation, increasing pressure on PVC. The futures price will continue to return to fundamental pricing, but the valuation is already low [3] - The 1 - 5 month spread of PVC futures is expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - The raw material support is neutral. The production of calcium carbide has slightly increased and stabilized, with the price of Wuhai calcium carbide at 2,350 yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke medium - grade material at 660 yuan/ton, also stable [3] - The supply side shows a neutral trend, with domestic PVC production increasing. The overall operating rate of PVC powder is 76.18%, a 2.85 - percentage - point increase. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder is 77.65%, up 2.41 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder is 72.59%, up 3.93 percentage points [3] - The demand side is neutral - to - bearish. The operating rate of downstream products is at a low level. Exports were good in July, but the Indian tariff has been implemented. The industry chain has double inventory accumulation [3] - The profit situation is neutral - to - bullish. The profit of single - PVC is at a low level, and the comprehensive profit is weakening. The profit per ton of calcium - carbide integration is - 562 yuan, that of Shandong's externally - purchased calcium - carbide method is - 836 yuan/ton, and the profit of North China's ethylene - based method is 354 yuan/ton. The northwest comprehensive profit is 329 yuan/ton, the North China comprehensive profit is - 170 yuan/ton, and the double - ton price difference is 3,129 yuan [3] - The macro environment is neutral. The probability of an interest - rate cut in September has increased, and some domestic regions have introduced new real - estate policies [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide - Lanthanum coke production has declined. The operating rate of sample enterprises is 54.87%, a 1.83 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The price of Shenmu medium - grade material is 660 yuan/ton, the same as last week [6] - Calcium carbide supply has slightly decreased. The operating rate has dropped 0.59 percentage points to 71.91%, and the overall operating rate is at a relatively low level. The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [12][13] 3.2 PVC Production - The overall operating rate of PVC powder this week is 76.18%, a 2.85 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous period. The operating rate of calcium - carbide - based PVC powder is 77.65%, up 2.41 percentage points, and that of ethylene - based PVC powder is 72.59%, up 3.93 percentage points [18] 3.3 PVC Downstream Demand - The operating rate of downstream products is low. The operating rate of pipes is 33.48% (- 0.13%), and that of profiles is 38.39% (- 4.21%), both lower than the same period last year [26] 3.4 PVC Inventory - Social inventory has increased. The social inventory is 83.79 million tons, an increase of 1.89 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the inventory of East China samples is 78.94 million tons, an increase of 2.29 million tons, and the inventory of South China samples is 4.85 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons [29] - The upstream factory inventory has also increased. The factory inventory is 27.12 million tons, an increase of 0.23 million tons from the previous period [29] - The industry - chain inventory has accumulated [29] 3.5 PVC Profit - The loss of calcium - carbide integration has slightly widened. The profit of Xinjiang integration is 637 yuan/ton, and that of northwest integration is - 1,145 yuan/ton [35] - The profit of the externally - purchased calcium - carbide method has declined. The profit per ton of the northwest externally - purchased calcium - carbide method is - 562 yuan, and that of the North China externally - purchased calcium - carbide method is - 836 yuan/ton [35] - The profit of the externally - purchased ethylene method has decreased. The profit of East China's ethylene - based method is 354 yuan/ton, and that of North China's ethylene - based method is 504 yuan/ton, weaker than last week [38] - The comprehensive profit is weakening. The northwest comprehensive profit is 329 yuan/ton, and the Shandong comprehensive profit is - 170 yuan/ton. The double - ton price difference has slightly decreased to 3,129 yuan/ton [46] 3.6 Import and Export - From January to July, PVC exports increased year - on - year. The export volume of PVC powder from January to July was 2.29 million tons, an increase of 831,000 tons (+ 57%), with strong exports in July. The import volume of PVC powder from January to July was 148,700 tons, basically the same as last year [51] - From January to July, the cumulative export of PVC flooring was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.15% [54] 3.7 Related Commodities - Since 2024, the demand in the real - estate industry has continued to weaken, the cement price has declined, and the operating rate is at a low level [59] 3.8 Futures - Spot Analysis - The futures price is fluctuating weakly. The 01 contract has dropped from 4,949 last week to 4,913 at yesterday's close [70] - The 1 - 5 month spread is fluctuating. The 1 - 5 month spread is - 310 [70] - The number of registered warehouse receipts continues to increase. On September 5, the number of warehouse receipts was 90,000, an increase of 5,940 from last week [70] 3.9 PVC Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheet shows the production, demand, import, and other data of PVC from January 2025 to December 2025, with fluctuations in production and demand year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year [72]
钢材:复产进行时
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Core view: Neutral [3] - Month spread: Neutral [3] - Steel mill profit: Neutral [3] - Scrap steel: Bullish [3] - Finished product inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The market fluctuated and consolidated last week. Hot metal production declined significantly but remained positive year-on-year. Northern steel mills are gradually resuming production, with hot metal expected to rise significantly next week. Rebar production fell, inventories increased substantially, and apparent demand declined. Hot-rolled coil production dropped sharply, inventories increased month-on-month, and apparent demand decreased significantly. The total output of five finished steel products decreased month-on-month, inventories continued to accumulate, and demand declined month-on-month. Long-process steel mill profits continued to narrow, with some mills incurring losses. Short-process steel mills had losses during off-peak hours. The first round of coke price cuts is about to be implemented. Attention should be paid to the recovery of hot metal production and the resumption of exports [3]. - The month spread structure is contango, showing a continuous reverse spread trend. The market feedback indicates that there will be significant pressure on rebar warehouse receipts in the later period, and attention should be paid to delivery [3]. - The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises this week was 61.04%, a slight month-on-month decline [3]. - According to calculations, current on-peak production at East China EAF plants results in a loss of 222 yuan per ton of steel, and off-peak production results in a loss of 95 yuan per ton [3]. - The inventory of five finished steel products is accumulating, and the overall inventory remains at a low level. Rebar inventory has exceeded last year's level, and billet inventory is increasing. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in overall inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Production - As of September 8, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 2.2884 million tons, a significant month-on-month decline of 112,900 tons but still showing positive year-on-year growth. Northern steel mills have resumed production one after another, and attention should be paid to the recovery of hot metal [12]. - According to Mysteel research data, the national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises this week was 80.4%, a slight month-on-month decline; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 55.74% [12]. - This week, the total output of five major steel products was 8.6065 million tons, a decrease of 239,600 tons compared to last week. Among them, rebar production was 2.1868 million tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons compared to last week. Hot-rolled coil production was 3.1424 million tons, a significant decrease of 105,000 tons compared to last week. Cold-rolled production increased slightly, and medium and heavy plate production decreased significantly, both significantly higher than historical levels [20]. 3.2 Demand - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major steel products this week was 8.2783 million tons, a month-on-month decline of 299,400 tons, slightly lower than the same period last year. Rebar weekly consumption was 2.021 million tons, a month-on-month decline of 21,400 tons. Hot-rolled coil consumption was 3.0536 million tons, a significant month-on-month decrease of 153,600 tons [40]. - Cement direct supply decreased slightly. This week's trading volume decreased slightly month-on-month. The trading volume in the north decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while the trading volume in the south decreased slightly month-on-month. The trading volume in the East China region was relatively stable but significantly lower than the same period last year [40][54]. 3.3 Inventory - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling plants was 596,800 tons, continuing to accumulate month-on-month and significantly higher than the same period last year. The billet inventory in mainstream warehouses was 1.4215 million tons, increasing month-on-month and slightly lower than the same period [67]. - The total inventory of five major steel products, including both steel mills and social inventories, is increasing [55]. 3.4 Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts are continuously increasing and are at a high level compared to the same period in history. The market feedback indicates that there will still be a large number of warehouse receipts in the future. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts remain at a low level, a historical low for the same period [105].
镍&不锈钢周报2025/9/3-20250904
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term bearish trend of nickel fundamentals remains unchanged. Affected by events in major producing countries, recent market fluctuations have increased. The unrest mainly occurred in the capital area of Indonesia and was short - lived, causing no substantial impact on nickel supply. In the short term, the contradiction in refined nickel is not prominent. Based on repeated macro - expectations, nickel prices are likely to fluctuate widely [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Market Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai Nickel main contract 2510 opened at 119,550 yuan/ton, closed at 121,700 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 122,690 yuan/ton and a low of 119,530 yuan/ton, up 1.75% for the week. As of September 1, the electrolytic nickel spot price increased by 3,050 yuan/ton to 124,300 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 2.52% increase [8][11]. - **Supply and Demand Factors** - **Nickel Ore**: As of September 1, the CIF prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% Philippine laterite nickel ore were flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. As of August 29, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% domestic trade nickel ore were flat at 24.5 and 52.2 US dollars/wet ton respectively compared with last week. Last week, the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang increased by 0.5 US dollars to 12.5 and 11.5 US dollars/wet ton respectively [28]. - **Refined Nickel**: As of August 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.24 million tons to 3.52 million tons month - on - month, a 7.32% increase and a 20.55% increase year - on - year. As of September 1, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 519 tons to 21,800 tons week - on - week, a 2.33% decrease. LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 696 tons to 209,800 tons week - on - week, a 0.33% increase. Last week, the social inventory of pure nickel (including the Shanghai Futures Exchange) decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,500 tons week - on - week, a 3.43% decrease [38][40]. - **Nickel Iron**: As of August 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) increased by 0.08 million tons to 2.53 million tons month - on - month, a 3.02% increase. As of September 1, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 12.5 yuan/nickel point to 943 yuan/nickel point week - on - week, a 1.34% increase [67][23]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: As of July 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons month - on - month, a 17.3% increase. As of September 1, the average price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 160 yuan/ton to 27,800 yuan/ton week - on - week, a 0.58% increase [52][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: As of September 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production is estimated to increase by 3.74% to 3.4021 million tons month - on - month. As of August 29, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.88 million tons to 1.083 million tons week - on - week, a 0.81% decrease [81][84]. Monthly Balance Sheet - From January to December 2025, the total nickel production ranges from 8.2 to 9.0 million tons, imports from 9.8 to 12.5 million tons, exports from 1.3 to 2.2 million tons, and total consumption from 17.3 to 19.2 million tons. There are periods of surplus and shortage, with supply and consumption showing different year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [4].
PTA&MEG:低库存与低价
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views PTA - The PTA balance shows less - than - expected destocking month - on - month. It maintains a tight balance in September, with minor current supply - demand contradictions. Attention should be paid to the lower support [5][50]. PX - PX is in a tight - balance state for the polyester industry. There are few changes in maintenance, and the balance pressure is low. It should be operated with low - level oscillations, and its elasticity comes from PXN [6][72]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has a record - low port inventory, and it is difficult to accumulate inventory in the short term. The existing supply is high. With new device commissioning plans, the short - term outlook is cautiously bullish, and it should be treated as a low - buying opportunity during oscillations [7][107]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Attention to the Peak Demand Season Expectation - Terminal orders have shown partial improvement, and the weaving operation rate has slightly increased. The operation rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing are 79% (+7%), 68% (+5%), and 72% (+5%) respectively. Downstream raw material inventory is 10 - 20 days, and orders have slightly improved. The market anticipates a seasonal improvement in the peak season [9]. PTA Tight Balance - **Device Changes**: PTA device maintenance is less than expected. Hengli has one line under maintenance, and the other is undetermined. Dushan Energy is under maintenance, Fuhai Chuang's restart is postponed to mid - September, and new lines of Sanfangxiang are operating stably while the old line will stop after the new one stabilizes. YS Hainan and YS Dahua are under planned maintenance [43][50]. - **Inventory**: As of August 22, PTA social inventory remained stable, with a decrease of 8.3 tons to 212 tons (excluding credit warehouse receipts). The balance in September is tight [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The PTA balance destocking is slightly less than expected. It maintains a tight balance from August to September. The supply side has device maintenance, and the demand side has stable polyester load and slightly improved weaving orders [50]. PX with Elasticity - **Supply**: The domestic PX load changes little, with a domestic load of 83.3% and an Asian load of 75.6%. Jinling Petrochemical slightly reduced its load, Fuhai Chuang will restart in early September, and Daxie plans to increase its load in September. Overseas, Idemitsu restarted, and Saudi Arabia slightly increased its load [72]. - **Balance**: The PX balance is acceptable, with PXN compressed to around $250 +. It should be operated with short - term oscillations [72]. EG Low Inventory and General Expectation - **Device Changes**: The overall domestic ethylene glycol load is 75%, and the coal - based load is 77%. Satellite's one - line maintenance is postponed to early October. Coal - chemical maintenance slightly increases in September. Overseas, Singapore's 900,000 - ton device's restart is postponed for several months [84][107]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 44.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1 tons, reaching a record low. The arrival volume is expected to be neutral in the short term, and the port inventory is expected to remain stable or slightly decrease [102]. - **Supply - Demand**: The ethylene glycol market has a strong reality of low inventory. The inventory is difficult to accumulate in the short term. The supply is high, and the demand has stable polyester load. It should be operated with short - term oscillations [107]. Spread Structure - No specific analysis of the spread structure is summarized in the report other than showing some price charts of different products such as PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc.
钢材:短期铁水下降
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Core view: Neutral [3] - Month spread: Neutral [3] - Steel mill profit: Bearish [3] - Scrap steel: Neutral [3] - Finished product inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the market fluctuated downward. Hot metal production decreased slightly but remained in positive year-on-year growth. It is expected that hot metal production will decline significantly next week. Last week, rebar production increased significantly, inventory accumulated substantially, and apparent demand recovered. Hot-rolled coil production decreased slightly, inventory accumulated marginally, and apparent demand declined. The total output of five finished steel products increased slightly week-on-week, inventory accumulated overall, and demand recovered slightly. In terms of valuation, the profits of long-process steel mills continued to narrow, and short-process steel mills had a slight loss during off-peak hours. The eighth round of coke price increase failed, and the market reported expectations of a price cut in the future. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in hot metal production and the recovery of exports. The month spread structure is in contango, showing a continuous reverse spread trend. The market reported that there will be significant pressure on rebar warehouse receipts in the future, and attention should be paid to the delivery situation. This week, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, continuing to decline slightly week-on-week. According to calculations, the current loss per ton of steel produced by electric arc furnaces in East China is 158 yuan/ton during peak hours and 30 yuan/ton during off-peak hours. The inventory of five finished steel products is accumulating, and the overall inventory is still at a low level. The billet inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in overall inventory [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - As of August 29, 2025, the average daily pig iron output was 2.4013 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.62 million tons week-on-week, and continued positive year-on-year growth. The national blast furnace operating rate of 247 enterprises was 83.2%, a slight decrease week-on-week; the capacity utilization rate of 85 electric arc furnaces was 56.54%. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 63.64%, a slight decrease week-on-week [10]. - This week, the total output of five major varieties was 8.8461 million tons, an increase of 0.0655 million tons from last week. Among them, rebar output was 2.2056 million tons, an increase of 0.0591 million tons week-on-week; hot-rolled coil output was 3.2474 million tons, a decrease of 0.005 million tons week-on-week. Cold-rolled output increased slightly, and medium and heavy plate output decreased slightly, both significantly higher than the historical average [12]. - In terms of demand, the total consumption of five major varieties this week was 8.5777 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0478 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year. Rebar weekly consumption was 2.0421 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.0941 million tons. Hot-rolled coil consumption was 3.2072 million tons, a decrease of 0.0055 million tons week-on-week [31][34]. - This week, the trading volume decreased slightly week-on-week. The trading volume in the north decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, while that in the south increased slightly but was still lower than the same period last year. The trading volume in East China continued to decline slightly and was significantly lower than the same period last year [52]. - This week, the billet inventory of 55 billet-rolling plants was 555,200 tons, a slight increase week-on-week and still higher than the same period last year. The mainstream warehouse billet inventory was 1.3301 million tons, an increase week-on-week and slightly lower than the same period [68]. Valuation - Rebar warehouse receipts continued to increase and were at a high level compared to the same period in history. The market reported that there will still be a large number of warehouse receipts in the future. Hot-rolled coil warehouse receipts decreased significantly and were at a low level compared to the same period in history [119]. - The table shows the data for each month in 2025, including initial steel mill inventory, initial social inventory, pig iron output, crude steel output, import volume, export volume, total consumption, domestic production-demand balance, ending steel mill inventory, ending social inventory, surplus, year-on-year output growth, year-on-year consumption growth, cumulative year-on-year output growth, and cumulative year-on-year consumption growth [120].
天然橡胶:短期有撑上行存疑
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Short - term**: RU is neutral - biased long, NR is neutral. As of August 29, RU and NR prices rose, the RU - NR spread widened, and the RU09 - 01 spread widened. RU's recent frequent rainfall in production areas hindered tapping, leading to tight raw material supply and strong glue prices, with a slight reduction in light - colored rubber inventory. NR was affected by typhoons in Vietnam, with slow supply increase in overseas main production areas, stronger Thai cup - lump prices, and a slight reduction in dark - colored rubber inventory. However, tire开工率 declined, semi - steel tire inventory digestion was slow, and tire exports over - drafted subsequent demand, and domestic demand awaited verification during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season. It is judged that RU prices will fluctuate widely this week, and NR prices will fluctuate with a slight upward trend [4]. - **Medium - to long - term**: RU is neutral - biased short, NR is neutral - biased short. The factors affecting long - term trends are similar to short - term ones, mainly considering the supply - demand relationship in the tire market and the impact of weather on rubber production [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Data** - **Prices**: As of August 29, Thai cup - lump price was 50.5 Thai baht/kg, up 1 Thai baht/kg from last week; Thai glue price was 55.45 Thai baht/kg, up 0.45 Thai baht/kg from last week. Shanghai state - owned whole milk price was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 15,100 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week; Shanghai RSS3 price was 19,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week. International prices: Thai standard price was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week; Indian standard price was 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last week; Thai mixed price was 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week; Malaysian mixed price was 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton from last week [21][71][82]. - **Spreads**: As of August 29, the RU - NR spread was 3,165 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week, and it is expected to continue widening. The Thai mixed spot - RU main contract spread was - 1,060 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week. The Thai standard spot - NR main contract spread was 409.7 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton from last week; the Thai mixed spot - NR main contract spread was 454.65 yuan/ton, down 9.05 yuan/ton from last week. The RU09 - 01 spread was - 975 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from last week; the RU01 - 05 spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week; the NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 30 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week; the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 30 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week [4][94][109]. **Supply - related** - **Production Areas Weather**: During the period from August 26 to September 2, Vietnam was affected by typhoons "Jianyu" and "Lanhu". The estimated rubber production loss due to heavy rainfall was about 0.29 - 0.48 tons, which will be released after the weather improves. Yunnan's rainfall gradually subsided, while Hainan was more significantly affected by typhoon "Lanhu", with expected increased rainfall that would hinder tapping [10][31]. - **Thai Supply**: Thai weather was normal, raw material prices increased marginally, and production was stable. The Thai Rubber Authority (RAOT) launched a plan to export rubber to China via the Mekong River with zero import tax, aiming to increase prices. The first batch of 400 tons of cup - shaped rubber will be shipped in September this year, and commercial shipments are planned to start in October 2025, with production increasing to 2,400 tons [4][21]. - **Ivory Coast Exports**: In July 2025, Ivory Coast exported 2.85 tons of natural rubber to China, a decrease of 0.55 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 16.29% and a year - on - year increase of 92.59%. From January to July 2025, Ivory Coast's total exports of natural rubber to China were 27.84 tons, a decrease of 9.61 tons compared to the same period, with a total year - on - year increase of 52.73% [26]. **Demand - related** - **Tire Industry**: As of August 29, the semi - steel tire开工率 was 72.77%, down 0.36% from last week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises was 19.2 million pieces, a decrease of 360,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 27.66%. Due to anti - dumping measures in the EU, there was a rush to export, over - drafting subsequent orders, and downstream tire factories were pessimistic, making short - term inventory digestion difficult. As of August 28, the whole - steel tire开工率 was 63.84%, down 0.92% from last week. In July 2025, the export volume of Chinese whole - steel tires was 45.44 tons, a decrease of 4.72 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 13%. Enterprises' exports remained active, domestic sales were stable, and it is expected that the开工率 will improve in September [55][61]. - **Inventory**: As of August 24, the total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 47.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25%; the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 79.7 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12%. As of August 29, the combined inventory of bonded and general trade of natural rubber in Qingdao was 60.23 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.6%. The bonded area inventory was 7.32 tons, a decrease of 0.14%; the general trade inventory was 52.91 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. It is expected that the inventory in Qingdao Port will continue to decline slightly in the next period [4][48][94].