1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on device changes and supply - demand balance [5] - PX: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [6] - Ethylene Glycol: Neutral overall, with a cautiously bearish view on month - spread and device changes, and a cautiously bullish view on downstream demand [7] 2. Core Views PTA - PTA supply has unexpected maintenance, demand seasonally recovers, the balance improves, and the price recovers. It is greatly affected by sentiment in the short term, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [5] PX - PX inventory pressure is not large, recent supply maintenance plans increase, the expected balance is tight, and the PXN around $270 is slightly high. The current valuation reflects the expectation of fundamental improvement. Pay attention to sentiment changes in the short term and buy on dips [6] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [7] 3. Summary by Directory Demand Seasonal Improvement - Terminal orders have partial improvement, and the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing machines have increased by 7%, 5%, and 5% to 79%, 68%, and 72% respectively. Downstream raw material inventory is 10 - 20 days, and orders have slightly improved [9] - As of August 22, the polyester load is around 90% (+0.6%), the polyester cash flow is slightly in the red, and the average polyester inventory is around 17 days. Polyester is approaching the peak season, demand has seasonal improvement, and raw materials are strong due to "anti - involution", slightly compressing polyester profits. Last week's sales were good, and polyester overall reduced inventory, with the current inventory being neutral [13] - Polyester industry chain profits are average. Filament profits are slightly in the red, FDY losses are relatively serious, bottle - chip and slice profits are average, and staple - fiber profits are neutral [14] PTA Unexpected Maintenance Increase - In August, PTA maintenance volume was high, and maintenance plans increased in September. YS Dahua and YS Hainan are under maintenance, Jiaxing Petrochemical extended its maintenance and restarted, and Fuhua will restart in mid - September. Hengli Huizhou's two lines are under maintenance and reducing load, and Dushan Energy No. 2 is under planned maintenance [34] - As of August 22, PTA social inventory remained stable, (excluding credit warehouse receipts) inventory decreased to 220 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The balance in September may continue to reduce inventory [35] - PTA supply - demand balance: In August - September, with unexpected supply improvement and better demand, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, but the price has reflected the supply improvement. Pay attention to macro - sentiment and buy on dips [40] PXN Strength - US gasoline inventory decreases seasonally, the gasoline cracking spread during the peak season remains stable, and the octane number performance is average. Currently, the economics of blending oil is average, and the short - process profit in Asia is acceptable [47][49] - The US - Asia arbitrage spread remains stable. After considering the 25% US tariff on Japan and South Korea, the spread space is not large, and xylene is exempted. North America's demand for aromatics has significantly decreased in 2025, and South Korea's exports of aromatics to the US have remained low since April [55] - PX domestic load changes little, with the domestic load at 84.6% and the Asian load at 76.3%. Tianjin Petrochemical is under maintenance, CNOOC Huizhou slightly reduced its load. There are rumors of maintenance plans for Zhejiang and Lianyungang suppliers. In Asia, Thailand's THAI OIL restarted, Japan's Idemitsu's one line is under maintenance, and Saudi Arabia's Petro Rabigh device restarted [57] - PX is in a loose balance with PTA maintenance. With the expectation of PX maintenance, the PXN remains around $270. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities after pullbacks [59] Ethylene Glycol Situation - As of August 22, the overall ethylene glycol load is stable at 73%, and the coal - based load is 77%. The coal - chemical load is high, and there are some unexpected situations in some coal - chemical loads. It is expected that the coal - chemical load will slightly decrease in September [69] - Domestic ethylene glycol device changes: The domestic overall load is not low, and there are coal - chemical maintenance plans. Shenghong restarted, Tianying and Wonen restarted, Shanxi Weihua and Shenhua Yulin are under maintenance, and Tianye has a maintenance plan in September. Overseas, Singapore's Aster is under maintenance, and the restart of the cracking device is postponed. US Lotte and Malaysia's Petronas restarted [72][84] - As of August 11, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the main ports of East China is about 50 tons, a decrease of 4.7 tons month - on - month. The current inventory is at a low level. From August 18 - 24, the actual arrival was 6.1 tons, and the port reduced inventory. From August 25 - 31, the expected arrival is about 5.4 tons, and the port is expected to slightly reduce inventory in the short term. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12 days [96] - Ethylene glycol has a strong current situation but weak expectations. The near - end low inventory has little pressure to accumulate, the coal - based load is at a high level. It is expected that existing devices will restart and new ones will be put into production in the fourth quarter. There is support from anti - involution and coal. Pay attention to reverse - spread opportunities [101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the industry [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Market rumors of domestic procurement of Australian rapeseed have been confirmed with cumulative deals of 5 cargoes, which can make up for the shortage of rapeseed arrivals in the fourth quarter [4] - With increasing far - month exports of domestic soybean oil, downstream buyers are actively purchasing the basis of soybean oil from October to January, but be wary of reserve soybeans and Sino - US negotiations [6] - As India's peak procurement season is approaching its end, the bullish drivers for palm oil will be more on the supply side. However, even with supply - side drivers, the upside of the futures market may be limited, and there could be downward pressure if inventory accumulation exceeds expectations [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil Market - In the GAPKI June report, palm oil production in Indonesia increased by 15.99% month - on - month. In early July, the market expected a production cut in June. Due to tax cuts in June, exports increased by 35.56% month - on - month. With lower biodiesel subsidy costs and high consumption, the inventory at the end of August dropped to 253 million tons, a historical low. Most expect July production to be flat or slightly lower, and inventory accumulation at the end of July may be limited [4] - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in the first 20 days of August increased by 3.03%, lower than the historical average. However, according to shipping inspection agency data, export growth is slowing down, and inventory may continue to accumulate at the end of August unless consumption continues to exceed expectations [4] - After 8 cargoes of palm oil were traded in China last week, the origin's quotes weakened this week, and the import loss for the domestic futures market narrowed. Cargoes for the November shipment continued to be traded [5] - India's procurement of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil has slowed down due to the narrowing of the soybean - palm oil price spread at Indian ports and news of India's procurement of South American palm oil [5] Price Movements - As of August 22, 2025, French rapeseed had the largest weekly increase, while price adjustments of rapeseed and soybeans in most regions were small [8] - As of August 25, 2025, except for a slight decline in the prices of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, other vegetable oil prices rose, especially the prices of North and South American soybean oil [13] - The weekly price difference between refined palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia was $10/ton, compared to $0/ton the previous week, lower than the historical average of $11.7/ton. The price difference between Argentine soybean oil and Indonesian crude palm oil was - $28.5/ton, compared to - $36/ton the previous week, lower than the historical average of $127.9/ton [23] - As of August 22, Canada officially raised its rapeseed production forecast, and the price of Canadian rapeseed was weak. Without Chinese purchases, it has to find other markets [24] - As of August 22, the price difference between crude soybean oil and crude palm oil at Indian ports was $30/ton, higher than $15/ton the previous week; the price difference between crude sunflower oil and crude palm oil was $115/ton, compared to $95/ton the previous week; the price difference between refined soybean oil and refined palm oil was $0/ton, compared to - $6/ton the previous week [30] Transaction Volume - Last week, 8 cargoes of palm oil for the October shipment, 2 for the September shipment, 1 for the October shipment, and 5 for the November shipment were traded. One cargo of Dubai rapeseed oil was also traded in China last week [39] - The far - month basis of soybean oil had a large number of transactions again [132] Basis and Spread - The spot basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong weakened again, the spot basis of first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was raised, and the basis of third - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi remained stable [136] - On August 25, 2025, the spot price difference between first - grade soybean oil and 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - $900.0; the spot price difference between third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil in Jiangsu was $1320; and the spot price difference between third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil was $1540 [148] Bio - diesel - Weekly processing profit and loss remained stable, subsidies decreased, and blending losses increased [127] - The price of European RME was stable, and the processing profit was at the historical average level [128] Demand - The far - month basis of soybean oil had a large number of transactions again [132] Monthly Balance Sheet - The monthly balance sheets for palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil show the changes in inventory, production, import, demand, and other indicators from 2024 to 2025 [155]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Although refined nickel imports exceeded expectations last month, part of the inventory became hidden, causing no significant impact on domestic supply. The nickel ore price is relatively firm, with no further downward drivers in the future. Despite the expectation of peak - season stockpiling in September, which may support the demand for primary nickel, the supply side remains at a high level, and the fundamentals are unlikely to improve significantly. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Weak demand dominates short - term price adjustments, while the peak - season expectations of "Golden September and Silver October" may provide bottom support for prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel - **Price - related**: As of August 22, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore with 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel content were flat at 29, 57, and 78.5 US dollars per wet ton respectively compared to last week; the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore with Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by 0 and 0.1 to 24.5 and 52.2 US dollars per wet ton respectively; the freight rates from the Philippines to Tianjin Port and Lianyungang Port were flat at 12 and 11 US dollars per wet ton respectively; the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 4.5 yuan per nickel point to 930 yuan per nickel point, a 0.49% increase [3][27]. - **Production - related**: As of July 2025, China's monthly electrolytic nickel production increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase; the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.01 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.04% decrease; Indonesia's nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][57]. - **Inventory - related**: As of August 22, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 411 tons to 2.26 million tons, a 1.86% increase; the LME nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 1914 tons to 20.97 million tons, a 0.90% decrease; the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 1019 tons to 4.09 million tons, a 2.43% decrease [40]. - **Trade - related**: In July 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 1.55 million tons, a 53.27% increase; the monthly import volume was 3.82 million tons, a 124.36% increase. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 10.73 million tons, an 80.28% increase; the cumulative import volume was 13.51 million tons, a 180.97% increase [37]. Stainless Steel - **Price - related**: Last week, the stainless - steel main contract ss2510 opened at 13015 yuan per ton and closed at 12750 yuan per ton, a 2.0% decrease. As of August 25, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation decreased by 50 to 13075 yuan per ton, a 0.38% decrease [63]. - **Production - related**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons. Among them, the 300 - series production increased by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series production increased by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series production decreased by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [66]. - **Inventory - related**: As of August 22, the stainless - steel social inventory increased by 1.28 million tons to 109.17 million tons, a 1.19% increase. Among them, the 300 - series inventory increased by 1.42 million tons to 65.87 million tons, a 2.20% increase. As of August 25, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 1406 tons to 10.17 million tons, a 1.36% decrease [68]. - **Cost and Profit - related**: As of August 22, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 52 yuan per ton to 13054 yuan per ton, a 0.39% increase; the production profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points to - 3.52% [72]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production - related**: As of July 2025, China's monthly sulfuric acid nickel production increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. The monthly import volume was 1.69 million tons, a 27.63% increase; the monthly export volume was 660.5 tons, a 15.55% decrease [50]. - **Profit - related**: As of August 22, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag changed by - 0.1, + 1.2, + 0.5, and + 1.1 percentage points to - 1.1%, - 2.4%, 4.9%, and - 1.4% respectively compared to last week [53].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the pure benzene and styrene industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene: Last week, the operating load of pure benzene increased, with no new maintenance capacity and the restart of multiple maintenance devices, leading to a continuous increase in overall supply. With maintenance mostly completed, supply is expected to remain stable in September, still at a relatively high level. In terms of imports, South Korea's exports to China in the first ten days of August decreased significantly month-on-month, and China's imports in August are expected to decline substantially. Downstream demand is at a relatively high level for the same period, but overall downstream profits have declined significantly. In the short term, supply and demand for pure benzene are expected to be strong, but in the long run, poor downstream profits may lead to weakening demand. Particular attention should be paid to the stability of styrene demand. Port inventory of pure benzene has increased, and subsequent destocking is expected, with an upward driving force. In terms of valuation, the BZN spread is neutral, and the valuation is also relatively neutral [3] - Styrene: Last week, Fushun Petrochemical carried out maintenance on its styrene unit. Supply is expected to be high in August but may tighten in September due to an increase in maintenance. In terms of demand, multiple PS units increased their loads, and EPS had good sales at low prices, alleviating some inventory pressure. Overall, the comprehensive operating rate of the three downstream S products has rebounded, but current demand remains weak, mainly driven by rigid needs, and raw material inventories are high. In terms of terminal inventory, port inventory remained stable last week, and there is still pressure to accumulate inventory in August, with a downward driving force. In terms of valuation, the BZ - SM spread has declined significantly, and the styrene valuation is neutral [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - There are no new maintenance plans for pure benzene units, and the current operating rate is at a high level. Supply is expected to continue increasing [3] - Last week, there were no new maintenance devices for pure benzene, and supply is expected to increase. The maintenance of hydrogenated benzene is basically over, and supply is expected to remain at a high level [7][10] - After the peak of pure benzene maintenance has passed, with the commissioning of new devices, supply in August is expected to increase month-on-month [47] Pure Benzene Demand - Downstream overall operating rates are high and are expected to remain stable in the short term. However, downstream profit margins are poor, limiting demand potential. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period approaches, the situation of end - users should be observed [3] Pure Benzene Month - Spread - Pure benzene is expected to undergo destocking, and the paper futures month - spread structure is close to flat [3] Styrene Supply - Current supply is high, but may contract in September due to an increase in maintenance [3] - Last week, the styrene operating rate increased. Although Fushun Petrochemical's unit was under maintenance, overall supply remains high. Maintenance will increase in September, and supply may tighten [52] - With the commissioning of new devices, styrene supply is expected to continue to rise [87] Styrene Demand - The operating rate of the three downstream S products remains stable but is weak. Overall downstream profits are good, and demand is expected to remain stable [3] - Currently, the three S products are in the off - season. Overall demand shows some resilience, but inventories of the three S products are high, and subsequent demand may weaken. Attention should be paid to the destocking situation of the three S products during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [87] Styrene Month - Spread - Given the pattern of strong supply and weak demand combined with improved long - term expectations, the C structure is expected to be maintained [3] External Market Support - The arbitrage window between the US and Asia remains closed. In the first ten days of August, China imported 38,725 tons of pure benzene from South Korea, a significant month - on - month decrease and lower than the same period last year [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Coking Coal**: The overall investment rating for coking coal is neutral. The sub - ratings are: neutral for the core view, neutral - bearish for the spot market, neutral for the warehouse receipt cost, neutral - bullish for the supply, neutral for the demand, neutral for the basis, and neutral - bullish for the inventory [3]. - **Coke**: The overall investment rating for coke is neutral. The sub - ratings are: neutral for the core view, neutral for the spot market, neutral - bearish for the warehouse receipt cost, neutral for the supply, neutral for the demand, neutral for the profit, and neutral for the inventory [4]. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, but the fundamentals are clearly weakening. The spot market has weakened, with some pit - mouth prices decreasing. The supply side has seen a reduction in the impact of over - production checks, but some mines are still shut down due to working - face changes, keeping production at a low level. Mongolian coal has recovered to normal customs - clearance levels. The demand side shows that downstream buyers resist high prices, mainly pulling goods from previous orders with few new orders. The short - term price still has room for a correction [3]. - **Coke**: Six rounds of price increases for coke have been implemented, and the seventh round is still under negotiation. After the six - round increase, coke enterprises have overall made profits, and the coking operation rate remains relatively high, but some areas will implement production restrictions before the parade, with a limited expected impact. The demand side shows that the average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 240.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons, and steel mills have good profits. Currently, steel mills generally have enough coke, but top - charged coke is in short supply. Overall, the coke supply - demand relationship is tight, mainly following the fluctuations of raw coal [4]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal Spot Market - The spot sentiment has significantly weakened due to the previous rapid price increase. Currently, there are more price cuts in auctions, and the auction failure rate has increased. Most pit - mouth quotes remain stable, with some prices decreasing by less than 50 yuan/ton. The price of low - sulfur prime coking coal in Anze, Shanxi, has dropped to 1480 (- 20) yuan/ton [3][8]. - Mongolian coal at the port is in short supply, and the price has declined following the futures market. The current port transaction price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is around 1000 yuan/ton [14]. Warehouse Receipt Cost - The current lowest Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is around 1110 yuan/ton, with a slight premium on the 01 futures contract [31]. Supply - The coal - mine capacity utilization rate has declined, dropping to 85.37% last week, a week - on - week decrease of 0.42%. The Shanxi capacity utilization rate has decreased to 88.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49%. After the over - production self - check stage ended on August 15, the impact of over - production checks has decreased in the short term, but some mines are shut down due to working - face changes. Mongolian coal customs - clearance has increased, but the overall supply remains tight [3][53]. Demand - Downstream buyers have a low acceptance of high - priced coal and mainly pull goods from previous orders [3]. Basis - The futures market has a slight premium [3]. Inventory - The upstream inventory is still low, but the inventory reduction has slowed down, and downstream enterprises have a weak willingness to replenish inventory [3]. Coke Spot Market - Six rounds of price increases for coke were implemented last week, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. The seventh - round price increase has been proposed but is still under negotiation. The quasi - first - grade coke price at Rizhao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [4][104]. Warehouse Receipt Cost - After the six - round price increase, the wet - quenching warehouse receipt cost for coke is 1575 yuan/ton [109]. Supply - Coke enterprises have made profits. Some coke enterprises in certain areas have received production - restriction notices, but since their operation rates were not high originally, the impact is limited [4]. Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 240.7 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons. The blast - furnace operation rate of 247 steel mills is 83.59%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16%. Steel mills have good profits, and the hot - metal output is expected to remain stable this week, with production restrictions expected during the parade week [4][119]. Profit - Coke enterprises generally made profits after the six - round price increase, but it is difficult to implement the seventh - round increase [4]. Inventory - Steel mills increased their inventory replenishment previously, but the inventory structure is unbalanced, mainly lacking top - charged coke [4]. Historical Data on Supply - Demand Balance Coking Coal - From 2024 - 2025, the production, import, consumption, and inventory of coking coal have shown certain fluctuations. For example, in 2025, the production decreased in some months, and the import volume also changed. The total consumption had a certain growth trend, and the inventory fluctuated accordingly [155]. Coke - From 2025, the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory of coke have also changed. The production showed a slight increase in some months and a decrease in others. The consumption also had corresponding fluctuations, and the inventory gradually increased [157].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Recently, nickel supply has remained largely unchanged, but the 3.25% increase in domestic refined nickel inventory last week poses a significant negative impact on the fundamentals. Nickel prices are under pressure to decline but are also constrained by cost considerations and are unlikely to drop significantly. Attention should be paid to news disturbances from major producing countries and changes in macro - expectations, especially Indonesia's claim to crack down on illegal mining [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is facing a situation where the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, and the market may fall into a stalemate again. Downstream enterprises are not very enthusiastic about purchasing and are mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The recent market recovery is mainly supported by strong macro news, but the spot fundamentals have recovered poorly, and demand needs further release [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Prices**: As of August 18, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged from last week at $29, $57, and $78.5 per wet ton respectively. As of August 15, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore at Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by $0.3 and $0 respectively from last week to $24.5 and $52.3 per wet ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron as of August 18 increased by $7 per nickel point from last week to $926 per nickel point, a 0.76% increase [3][25]. - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. The national nickel pig iron output (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. In July 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][60]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 6 million tons to 776 million wet tons, a 0.78% increase. Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1319 tons to 4.19 million tons, a 3.25% increase [27][39]. - **Profit**: As of August 12, the cash cost production profit margin of Fujian RKEF increased by 0.92 percentage points to - 9.36% [3]. Stainless - steel Market - **Output**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons, with the 300 - series output increasing by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series output increasing by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series output decreasing by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [70]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.74 million tons to 107.89 million tons, a 2.48% decrease. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 57 tons to 10.31 million tons, a 0.06% increase [74]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 18, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by $30 per ton to $12995 per ton, a 0.23% decrease. The production profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by 0.34 percentage points to - 2.16% [78]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the supply of sulfuric acid nickel in the market is generally in a stable and weak state [49]. - **Profit**: As of August 18, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased by 0.2, increased by 1.3, increased by 0.3, and increased by 0.3 percentage points respectively from last week to - 1.6%, - 3.6%, 4.4%, and - 2.5% [55][56].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the oil industry is neutral according to the core view [4]. Group 2: Core View - Macroeconomically, after the release of US CPI and PPI data in July, the market restarted the interest - rate cut trading process. The report maintains that the inflation caused by tariffs is a "one - time shock", and there is still room for interest - rate cuts in the future, with stronger support at the lower boundary in Q3 and Q4. The volatility of crude oil remains low due to the low - volatility trends of US stocks, US bonds and other dollar - denominated assets [4]. - The Asian region's capacity to absorb increased Middle - Eastern oil production has slowed. The structure and monthly spreads are pricing in future supply surpluses. The impact of the Russia - US talks on Russian oil exports is mainly emotional, and future focus will return to Iran. The downstream sector maintains high operation rates, but with diesel weakening and refinery seasonal maintenance approaching, the spot discount is likely to narrow. The diesel fundamentals are not likely to see further significant contradictions, and future fundamental contradictions will return to the supply side [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog 1. Industry Factors - **OPEC Production**: OPEC increased production in September. The Russia - US talks have limited impact on Russian oil exports, with more of an emotional influence [5]. - **SPR**: The US SPR is replenishing at a rate of 30,000 - 50,000 barrels per day, mainly through slow and low - cost stockpiling [5]. - **Geopolitics & Sanctions**: The market is pricing in a negative outcome for the Russia - US meeting in Alaska. The meeting's possible results include a peace agreement (low probability), negotiation breakdown with intensified sanctions (supply disruption risk is limited), and a limited cease - fire or no agreement (highest probability, with a negative impact on structure and price) [5][15]. - **Shale Oil**: Last week's production was 1.333 million barrels per day, with the number of rigs remaining at 410. There is a downward trend in the number of rigs, which will gradually lead to a decrease in production [5]. 2. Macroeconomic Factors - **Macroeconomic Impact**: The release of US CPI and PPI data in July restarted the interest - rate cut trading process. The report believes that the impact of tariffs on prices is limited, and the direction of the impact is certain despite possible rhythm deviations [4][10]. - **Interest - Rate Cut Expectations**: The market's expectation for interest - rate cuts within the year has increased. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in September is over 90%, and there are expectations for two interest - rate cuts within the year (in September and October, 25 basis points each). The volatility of risk assets will remain low as market participants adapt to Trump's "TACO" mode [13]. 3. Supply - Demand Factors - **Supply**: The balance sheet shows the production and demand forecasts from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, with adjustments made to some data. Overall, there are periods of supply surplus and deficit [6]. - **Demand**: Diesel cracking spreads have weakened, and the spot discount shows a marginal weakening trend. China's capacity to absorb increased oil production has slowed, and as refineries enter the seasonal maintenance period, the fundamental pressure on the market is emerging [5][16]. 4. Market Sentiment and Positioning - **WTI Positioning**: In the week of August 5th, WTI long positions decreased by 13,160 contracts, short positions increased by 2,887 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 16,050 contracts [46]. - **Brent Positioning**: In the week of August 5th, Brent long positions decreased by 23,680 contracts, short positions decreased by 4,125 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 19,560 contracts [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, last week's supply increased with a new Jingbo plant producing products and no new device maintenance. August's supply is expected to continue rising. Imports are expected to decline in August as the US - Asia arbitrage window closed and the China - South Korea price difference is weak. In the short - term, demand may rise or remain stable due to the commissioning of Jingbo's styrene plant and high operating rates of caprolactam and aniline. In the long - run, demand may weaken due to weak downstream profits. Inventory is expected to decrease, and the current valuation is low [4]. - For styrene, last week's supply decreased. There were no new maintenance devices, but overall supply was high in August and may tighten in September due to multiple device overhauls. Downstream "Three S" comprehensive operating rates are weak, and demand is poor with high inventory. However, current downstream comprehensive profits are good, and short - term operating rates are expected to remain stable. Inventory is expected to continue increasing, and the valuation is neutral [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - There are no new device overhauls, and the current operating rate is at a high level, so supply is expected to continue increasing. The restart of some devices and the commissioning of new ones are expected to increase August's output by 70,000 tons month - on - month, still facing great supply pressure [5][16]. Demand - Downstream overall operating rates are high. With the commissioning of the new downstream styrene plant, overall demand is expected to be good [5]. Inventory - Last week, the East China port inventory was 152,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. Overall, pure benzene supply and demand are both increasing, and subsequent inventory is expected to decrease [45]. Valuation - The BZN spread is weak, and the overall valuation of pure benzene is not high [45]. Month - to - Month Spread - Pure benzene is expected to see inventory reduction, and the paper - goods month - to - month spread structure has shifted to the B structure, with the spread likely to strengthen later [5]. Styrene Supply - New device commissioning is expected to increase August's supply, but it may contract in September due to more overhauls. Last week, the operating rate decreased, and overall supply declined. With the commissioning of Jingbo and the restart of overhauled devices, August's supply is expected to increase by about 48,000 tons month - on - month [5][61]. Demand - Downstream "Three S" operating rates remain stable but are weak. Overall downstream profits are good, and demand is expected to remain stable. Currently, the "Three S" are in the off - season, with certain demand resilience, but high inventory may lead to weaker demand later [5][94]. Inventory - Last week, the East China port inventory decreased to 150,500 tons, the South China port inventory increased to 14,500 tons, and the overall port inventory decreased to 165,000 tons. Overall, styrene inventory is expected to increase later [91][94]. Valuation - The BZ - SM spread has decreased significantly, and the styrene valuation is neutral [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The pattern of strong supply and weak demand combined with improved long - term expectations is expected to maintain the C structure [5]. External Market Support - The US - Asia arbitrage window has been continuously closed. In the first 10 days of August, 38,725 tons of pure benzene were imported from South Korea, a significant month - on - month decrease compared to July and a year - on - year low [5]. Regional Market Conditions Pure Benzene - In North America, there is a large amount of pure benzene inventory due to advance stocking in anticipation of tariffs and poor downstream demand. In Western Europe, traditional downstream demand is sluggish, and pure benzene profits have deteriorated, with Brazilian pure benzene possibly being resold to Europe. In Asia, the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed, and China's pure benzene demand remains stable [50]. Styrene - In North America, the spot market is weak, sellers are reluctant to sell due to low profits, and tariffs have weakened styrene's export competitiveness. In Western Europe, supply is relatively stable, but demand is weak. In Asia, China's downstream demand is stable, while demand outside China remains weak, and styrene production is in the red. Southeast Asian overhauls in August may tighten supply. The US - Europe arbitrage window is open, and the US - Asia arbitrage window is closed [110].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Core View**: Neutral with a slight positive bias. Recent drivers are on the supply side. OPEC+ is expected to increase production by about 550,000 barrels per day. Chevron has regained the license to produce oil in Venezuela, and Venezuelan crude oil shipments to Asia have decreased. As the deadline for the US-Russia agreement approaches and Russian refineries are attacked, the high-sulfur price is relatively supported. Attention should be paid to recent high-sulfur spot procurement and digestion, as well as tariff sanctions and crude oil quotas [4]. - **Spread**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. Affected by tariff sanctions, as the US-Russia negotiation deadline approaches and Russian oil exports are blocked, the supply risk premium rises. The high-sulfur spread fluctuates at a high level of around -$3 per ton, weaker than last week [4]. - **Price Difference**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. The decline in international crude oil prices drags down the fuel oil price [4]. - **Supply**: Negative. The global total shipment is expected to be loose. Western arbitrage cargoes are arriving in Singapore successively, and the arrivals in Singapore are high, with still large inventory pressure [4]. - **Demand**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. The power generation demand is gradually weakening [4]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. Singapore's fuel oil has started to destock but remains at a high level [4]. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Core View**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the crude oil price weakens. In the short term, the low-sulfur fuel oil price is expected to fluctuate. The arrivals of low-sulfur fuel oil in Singapore in August are at a high level, and Kuwait's low-sulfur shipments are stable, with no obvious increase in low-sulfur supply. The low-sulfur market in China has sufficient supply, and the demand is dominated by rigid demand. The domestic marine fuel market is in a stalemate. In July, CNOOC's low-sulfur quota was exhausted, and the production scheduling expectations of Sinopec and PetroChina are weak. Attention should be paid to the recent adjustment or issuance of low-sulfur quotas [5]. - **Spread**: Neutral with a slight negative bias. Affected by tariff sanctions, as the US-Russia negotiation deadline approaches and Russian oil exports are blocked, the supply risk premium rises. The low-sulfur spread fluctuates slightly in the range of $8 - $9 per ton, slightly down from last week [5]. - **Price Difference**: Negative. The spot price difference of low-sulfur fuel oil is weak, and in the short term, it is under pressure. The price difference between high and low-sulfur fuel oils narrows [5]. - **Supply**: Neutral. The departures from Brazil in July and August are low. The early return of Dangote RFCC leads to a reduced expectation of low-sulfur supply. Continued attention should be paid to the arrivals [5]. - **Demand**: Neutral with a slight positive bias. The summer power generation demand for low-sulfur fuel oil is weakening, and the marine fuel demand is stable and improving, but due to sufficient supply, the bunkering profit is average [5]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. Singapore's fuel oil inventory remains at a high level [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Core Logic - **Russia**: In July, the offline refining capacity was adjusted upwards. From July to August, it reached the annual maintenance low, providing strong support for high-sulfur exports in the next three months. The offline primary refining capacity in August is expected to drop to 3.74 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 260,000 tons). As of August 14, 2025, Russia's weekly high-sulfur exports are about 650,000 tons. The EU passed the 18th round of sanctions against Russia in July 2025, including a reduction in the Russian oil export price from $60 to $47.6 per barrel and a ban on new transactions of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. The US imposed an additional 25% tariff on India, raising the tax rate to 50%. According to EA analysis, India may reduce its Russian crude oil imports to less than 1 million barrels per day [9]. - **Latin America**: As of August 10, 2025, the high-sulfur fuel oil exports from Latin America are about 270,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease. In July 2025, the crude oil processing volume of Mexican refineries increased slightly. On July 25, Chevron regained the license, and the crude oil flowing from Venezuela to Asia is expected to decrease. On August 7, 2025, a new coking unit of the Tula refinery started operation, with a residue processing capacity of 100,000 barrels per day. After the commissioning, the crude oil processing volume of Tula increased from the previous 150,000 tons per day to 170,000 barrels per day [11]. - **Middle East**: In July 2025, the high-sulfur fuel oil exports from the Middle East were 4.36 million tons, at a historical low for the same period. Saudi Arabia's high-sulfur fuel oil exports increased significantly to 210,000 tons in July (+34.5%), mainly shipped to Singapore, Malaysia, and South Asia. As of August 10, 2025, the floating storage of fuel oil in the Middle East increased slightly to 1.17 million tons (+140,000 tons). The power generation demand in July was not high. The tension in the Israel-Iran conflict has subsided, and there are no new variables in the high-sulfur fuel oil exports from the Middle East. The large-scale maintenance of Middle East refineries has ended, and the maintenance capacity of refineries in July was between 12.6 million and 18.9 million tons [14]. - **Singapore**: As of August 10, 2025, the floating storage of high-sulfur fuel oil in the Pan-Singapore region is about 1.18 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 60,000 tons), at a high level. This week, the arrivals of fuel oil in Singapore are 675,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 100,000 tons), mainly from Russia and the Middle East. The departures are 100,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 60,000 tons), mainly flowing to China and Southeast Asia [19][22]. - **China**: Shandong Province is piloting an increase in the tax refund amount for some independent refineries' fuel oil, and the expected increase in the fuel oil consumption tax deduction ratio is 25%, leading to a decline in the feedstock cost of fuel oil. Under the tax reform pilot, China's high-sulfur fuel oil imports rebounded from the low in May. The imports in June were about 1.05 million tons, and in July about 700,000 tons. As of August 10, 2025, the imports of high-sulfur fuel oil in China are about 390,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 140,000 tons) [37]. Inventory - As of August 15, 2025, the inventory in Singapore is 3.88 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 260,000 tons), in the US 3.1 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons), in Fujairah 1.16 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 360,000 tons), in ARA 1.03 million tons (stable), and in Zhoushan 1.18 million tons (a decrease of 60,000 tons). As of August 14, 2025, the total fuel oil warehouse receipts are 80,710 tons (Yangshan Petroleum -5,000 tons, Sinochem Xingzhong -7,000 tons), and the total low-sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts are 16,080 tons (Yangshan Petroleum -4,970 tons) [92][94][97].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - As of August 12, RU and NR prices rose, the RU - NR spread widened, and the RU09 - 01 spread widened [4]. - In the short - term, RU is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend due to factors such as typhoons affecting the Yunnan main production area, tight raw material supply, rising glue prices, and a slight reduction in light - colored rubber inventory. NR is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation as the Vietnam production area is affected by heavy rainfall, the Thai cup - lump price rises, dark - colored rubber inventory decreases slightly, tire开工率 remains stable, but overseas demand is expected to decline, and domestic demand awaits the "Golden September and Silver October" [4]. - In the long - term, both RU and NR are considered neutral - bearish [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Supply - The Vietnam production area is disturbed by heavy rainfall, and the overseas export volume is lower than the annual average [5]. - As of August 13, the Thai glue price remained stable at 54 Thai baht/kg, and the Thai cup - lump price was 49.3 Thai baht/kg, up 1.5 Thai baht/kg from the previous week [18][17]. - Compared with previous years, the phenological conditions are normal. Without extreme weather disturbances, the overseas main production areas will continue to increase production, with strong supply. ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber production in 2025 will increase by 0.5% year - on - year to 14.892 million tons, with different growth rates in different countries [36]. - The export volume of overseas main production areas is lower than the average level of previous years [38]. Domestic Supply - Typhoon "Yangliu" is moving westward and strengthening, and the Yunnan production area in China continues to be affected by rainfall [53]. - As of August 12, the Yunnan glue price was 14,300 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Yunnan rubber block price was 13,300 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of August 13, the Hainan glue price for concentrated latex factories was 14,400 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Hainan glue price for whole - latex factories was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week [59]. - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 619,900 tons, down 11,900 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.89%. The bonded area inventory was 75,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; the general trade inventory was 544,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.11%. The inventory in Qingdao continued to decline [67]. Tire - As of August 7, the operating rate of Chinese tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 61.00%, down 0.08% from the previous week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese all - steel tire enterprises was 10.51 million pieces, down 250,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 2.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.63% [81][79]. - As of August 7, the operating rate of Chinese tire enterprises' semi - steel tires was 74.35%, down 0.10% from the previous week. In July 2025, the monthly inventory of Chinese semi - steel tire enterprises was 19.2 million pieces, down 360,000 pieces from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% and a year - on - year increase of 27.66% [89]. Price and Spread - As of August 12, the Shanghai Vietnam 3L price was 14,850 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Shanghai state - owned whole - latex price was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Shanghai RSS3 price was 19,850 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [97]. - As of August 12, the RU - NR spread was 3,195 yuan/ton, and it is expected to continue to widen [109]. - As of August 12, the Thai mixed spot - RU main contract spread was - 1,260 yuan/ton, down 1,015 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Thai mixed spot - NR main contract spread was 288.55 yuan/ton, down 112.45 yuan/ton from the previous week; the Thai standard spot - NR main contract spread was 360.1 yuan/ton, down 54.7 yuan/ton from the previous week [124]. - As of August 12, the RU09 - 01 spread was - 1,025 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from the previous week; the RU01 - 05 spread was - 90 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the NR consecutive one - consecutive two spread was - 60 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week; the NR consecutive two - consecutive three spread was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week [134].