Core Insights - The report from Goldman Sachs focuses on the competitive landscape and growth prospects in China's food delivery and instant retail sectors, highlighting the intensifying rivalry between eCommerce platforms like Alibaba and JD, and local service leader Meituan [1][5][11] - The eCommerce platforms aim to capture a significant share of the Rmb1.5 trillion instant retail market and leverage high-frequency food delivery services, projected to reach Rmb2.4 trillion by 2030, to cross-sell other products [1][6][11] - The report outlines three competitive scenarios for food delivery market share among Meituan, Alibaba, and JD, indicating potential shifts in market dynamics based on investment strategies [1][12][29] Competitive Landscape - The competition has escalated, with an estimated Rmb25 billion (approximately US$3 billion) invested by Alibaba, JD, and Meituan in the June quarter alone, leading to significant losses for each player [11][12] - Meituan currently leads the food delivery market with approximately 90 million daily orders, while Alibaba's Ele.me and Taobao Instant Commerce have reached a peak of 60 million daily orders [34][35] - JD is stabilizing its daily order volumes at 20-25 million by enhancing its delivery capabilities and expanding its workforce of full-time riders [34][35] Market Projections - The report estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% for food delivery and 18% for instant retail from 2024 to 2030, driven by increased platform subsidies and new user acquisitions [1][36] - The total addressable market (TAM) for food delivery is projected to reach Rmb2.4 trillion and Rmb1.5 trillion for instant shopping by 2030, with various consumption scenarios identified [1][36][37] - The introduction of centralized kitchens is expected to enhance food delivery penetration by improving consumer confidence in food safety and reducing delivery costs [37] Strategic Initiatives - Meituan is focusing on its core business by closing down less profitable segments and launching 1,200 centralized kitchens to streamline operations [1][12][19] - Alibaba has announced a Rmb50 billion investment to support merchants and users, aiming to boost its market share in the instant retail space [11][12] - JD is exploring new models for food delivery and leveraging its logistics network to enhance service offerings [20][34] Financial Implications - The report anticipates significant profit declines across transaction platforms in 2025, with JD and Alibaba expected to incur substantial losses in their food delivery segments [16][20] - Long-term, the reallocation of marketing spend from user acquisition to food delivery subsidies could improve gross merchandise volume (GMV) profit margins for both Alibaba and JD [16][20] - The competitive landscape is expected to normalize over time, potentially leading to modest profits or breakeven for Alibaba and JD's food delivery businesses by 2027 [16][20]

Summary of Conference Call Records Companies and Industries Involved - **Alibaba (阿里巴巴)** - **Meituan (美团)** - **JD.com (京东)** - **Industry**: E-commerce and food delivery Key Points and Arguments Alibaba's Performance and Outlook - **Customer Management Revenue (CMR)**: Expected to grow by 10%-11% YoY to approximately 71 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with a full-year forecast of high single-digit growth [1][5] - **Take Rate Adjustments**: Slight decline in EBIT due to adjustments in take rates and increased investments in new businesses [1][5] - **Food Delivery Business**: Q2 delivery volume expected to exceed 80 million orders, with an average loss of about 4 RMB per order, leading to an overall loss increase of 8-10 billion RMB [1][6] - **Subsidy Strategy**: Anticipated increase in subsidies during Q3 to 16-20 billion RMB, with Q4 maintaining around 10 billion RMB, extending into 2026 [1][6] - **Overall GMV Growth**: Expected to align with market trends, showing low to mid single-digit growth [1][7] - **Cloud Business**: Projected revenue of approximately 32 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a 20% YoY increase, driven by AI developments and delayed revenue recognition from the Spring Festival [1][8] Meituan's Competitive Position - **Delivery Volume Growth**: Q2 delivery volume increased by about 10%, but revenue growth was only 4-5% due to subsidies [4][14] - **Profitability**: Maintained profitability with an average profit of about 1 RMB per order, despite a 30% YoY decline in operating profit [4][14] - **Q3 Challenges**: Facing increased competition, with expected profit per order dropping to a few cents, but not incurring losses [16][15] - **Investment in Instant Retail**: Plans to invest over 100 billion RMB in the restaurant sector over the next three years, with significant growth in instant retail orders [13][14] JD.com's Strategy and Performance - **GMV Growth**: Expected YoY growth of 15%-20% in Q2 2025, with similar revenue growth [21][22] - **Aggressive Subsidy Strategy**: Significant investment in food delivery, reaching a peak of 25 million orders in June, but facing losses exceeding 10 RMB per order [21][22] - **Customer Acquisition Focus**: Emphasis on customer acquisition and retention, with a stable subsidy strategy to improve ROI [23][24] Market Dynamics and Future Trends - **Competitive Landscape**: The summer period is expected to showcase the effectiveness of subsidies, with projected order volumes indicating a competitive market share distribution [20][26] - **Long-term Valuation Considerations**: Current valuations for Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com reflect market pressures, with potential for recovery as competition stabilizes [25][26] - **Impact of Subsidy Wars**: Short-term boosts in user activity and GMV from subsidy wars, but long-term growth potential remains uncertain [25][26] Additional Insights - **Cloud Business Potential**: Alibaba's cloud business is expected to maintain high single-digit growth rates, driven by emerging demand in new technology sectors [9][8] - **Investment Adjustments**: Meituan is reallocating budgets to focus on key areas, indicating a strategic shift in resource allocation [17][18] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call records, highlighting the competitive dynamics and financial outlooks of Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com in the e-commerce and food delivery sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The external delivery industry is undergoing a significant transformation, moving from price wars to a focus on quality and service, emphasizing the need for sustainable business practices and fair competition among stakeholders [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The external delivery market has shifted dramatically, with intense competition leading to a "price war" scenario, reminiscent of previous battles in the shared economy sector [3]. - Major players like JD.com, Meituan, and Taobao are engaging in aggressive promotional strategies, including substantial discounts and cash vouchers, to capture market share [2][3]. - The current market environment is characterized by a "buying frenzy," where consumers are eager to take advantage of low prices, benefiting merchants and delivery personnel in the short term [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Risks - The intense focus on low prices may lead to irrational consumer behavior, reduced profit margins for merchants, and a decline in service quality [4]. - The historical context of similar price wars in the shared economy, such as the downfall of Ofo and the acquisition of Mobike by Meituan, highlights the potential risks of unsustainable business practices [3]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Companies should prioritize quality and service improvements over merely competing on price, suggesting a need for internal motivation and a shift in strategic thinking [5]. - A dual-track system combining full-time and gig workers could enhance rider rights and reduce turnover, while integrating supply chain management could lower costs and benefit both merchants and consumers [6]. - The industry should aim for a transition from price competition to value competition, fostering a collaborative ecosystem that benefits all parties involved [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [8] Core Insights - The instant retail market in China is expected to exceed 700 billion yuan by 2025, accounting for over 5% of the country's physical network retail sales [2][5] - The shift in consumer behavior from bulk purchasing to "small quantity, multiple times" is driven by smaller family structures and a faster-paced lifestyle, which enhances the demand for instant retail [5][23] - Instant retail is anticipated to drive growth in instant logistics, benefiting companies like SF Holding, and the deployment of smart delivery lockers is also expected to gain traction [2][5] Summary by Sections Instant Retail Emergence - Instant retail is experiencing explosive growth, with major players like JD and Alibaba investing heavily in this sector [15][19] - The transition from distant e-commerce to near-field retail reflects a strong consumer demand for instant gratification [16][23] Opportunities in Transportation and Logistics - The growth of instant retail is expected to stimulate the logistics sector, with a projected increase in online takeaway market size to approximately 1.7 trillion yuan by 2025, representing about 30% of China's dining consumption [43][48] - Instant delivery orders are projected to grow by 18% year-on-year, reaching 48.3 billion orders in 2024, driven by the expansion of flash warehouses and the need for efficient delivery solutions [49][52] Travel Chain Insights - Domestic passenger volume is showing a stable increase, with a 4% year-on-year rise in the week of July 11, while international passenger volume increased by 16% [64] - The average domestic ticket price has seen a slight decline of 6.8% year-on-year, indicating pressure on short-term revenues despite improving demand [62][64] Maritime and Logistics Developments - The maritime sector is witnessing a rebound, with the average VLCC-TCE rate rising by 9.7% to $27,000 per day, driven by active cargo demand in the Middle East [29][30] - The logistics sector is focusing on addressing "involution" in the express delivery market, with a 16.6% year-on-year increase in express delivery volume, indicating robust industry growth [6][20]

刚刚过去的周末，外卖补贴大战硝烟继续。 淘宝闪购、美团再次发放外卖大额券，平台订单迎来明显增长。这场流量狂欢，也持续引发业内人士的 思考：外卖平台为争夺流量而展开激烈的补贴竞争，短期内对消费者和部分商家形成利好，但从长期来 看，仅凭低价难以形成客户黏性，只有提升服务价值，才能实现长期发展。 "疯狂星期六"再现 大额补贴让各平台订单迎来明显增长。7月13日，证券时报记者从美团方面获悉，截至7月12日23时36 分，美团即时零售订单量再创新高，达1.5亿单。数据还显示，餐饮商家在美团的订单量比日常时段增 长了65%，美团全量配送订单平均送达时间为34分钟。另据稍早消息，7月周末美团骑手日收入增长 111%，超过40万众包骑手日收入超500元。 作为本轮外卖补贴大战的"点火者"之一，淘宝闪购在7月2日宣布，将在未来12个月内发放500亿元平台 补贴。彼时美团方面虽然没有官宣，但在7月5日突然抛出大额补贴。随后双方各自发布"战报"，美团宣 布即时零售当日订单突破了1.2亿单，淘宝闪购、饿了么联合宣布日订单数超8000万单，淘宝闪购日活 跃用户超过2亿。 京东方面也动作频频。7月8日，京东外卖宣布正式启动"双百计划"， ...

事实上，从7月5日开始，大额补贴陆续放出，大量消费者涌入美团和淘宝闪购，抢起外卖券。记者发 现，本周末的外卖大额券延续上周末的外卖狂欢，且集中在咖啡茶饮品牌。网友们纷纷表示，自己已经 胖了好几斤了。还有网友直呼，0元喝奶茶，喝出糖尿病。 此外，外卖骑手也直呼"爆单"。有报道称，一位成都的外卖骑手表示，这两天平台发大量券，骑手们的 单量也上来了，有的同行一天甚至可以跑200单，收入超千元。 7月5日，美团宣布单日零售订单达到1.2亿单，其中餐饮订单则超过1亿单。当天晚间8时45分，美团内 网显示平台即时零售日订单突破1亿单。 7月7日，淘宝闪购和饿了么联合宣布，淘宝闪购日订单数超8000万单，其中非餐饮订单超1300万单，淘 宝闪购日活跃用户超2亿。 对于"外卖大战"升级，有业内人士分析指出，之前的补贴基本上是无差别地拉新留新，力度总体上还是 比较小，但是当前的补贴则是有意在打一场"长期战"，暴露了外卖平台抢夺即时零售市场份额的野心。 （文章来源：证券时报网） 淘宝闪购甩出"满18减18"的大招，美团外卖红包立刻以"0元喝奶茶"反击，京东宣布每晚10万份，一口 价16.18元小龙虾……近日，各家电商平台打响了新 ...

阿里美团外卖大战周末升级，开启新一轮外卖疯狂补贴。 7月12日，美团、淘宝闪购等平台再次分别发放外卖大额券，其中包括"满25减21""满25减20"等多张大 额券，部分外卖可"零元购"。 若即时零售失守，对于淘宝、美团、京东任何一家来说，都可能变成不能承受之重。高频流量入口竞争 不力，必然会导致生态价值萎缩。 因此，外卖的竞争，不仅上了强度，也上了高度。这场以外卖之名开启的争夺战，逐渐演变成阿里、美 团、京东对自身零售业务，尤其是即时零售的升级。 美团CEO王兴表态，会不惜一切代价赢得竞争。阿里巴巴CEO吴泳铭说，这是阿里从电商平台走向大消 费平台的战略升级。 京东要用外卖的战役，找回"失落的五年"，而淘宝需要一场新的胜利，覆盖电商基本盘之外的业务版 图，美团则要和京东、天猫争抢电商生意。 接连两周，横跨多平台的外卖大战轮番上演，几大平台的慷慨程度可谓前所未有。 这次外卖大战突然升级的诱因，表面看是美团京东夹击下的阿里。美团与老对手饿了么战斗多年，这次 直接对向"淘宝闪购"。 在今年以前很长的一段时间里，外卖行业都是美团和饿了么的天下。虽然美团占据优势，但饿了么虽有 远虑并无近忧。然而，京东的强势入局打破了这 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly regarding new IPOs and sectors such as new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][10]. Core Insights - The asset trading platform remains a clear direction for investment, with a focus on the expansion of various asset transactions and liquidity [3][10]. - The report highlights the positive trend in virtual assets, including stablecoins, with traditional financial institutions increasingly entering this space [3][10]. - Recent upgrades in subsidies for e-commerce and food delivery platforms are expected to benefit sectors like coffee and tea drinks, as well as advertising channels [3][10]. Industry Situation Tracking 1. Education - The Chinese education index increased by 2.47% from July 7 to July 11, outperforming major indices [11][20]. - Notable stock performances include New High Education Group rising by 24.18% and Fenbi increasing by 13.44% [11][20]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure due to macroeconomic impacts, with notable stock movements including Samsonite up by 3.76% and Prada down by 0.99% [22][24]. 3. Coffee and Tea Drinks - The coffee sector remains highly prosperous, with significant benefits from platform subsidies, while tea drinks also see substantial gains [26][27]. - Luckin Coffee opened 373 new stores, with a focus on both first and second-tier markets [32]. 4. E-commerce and Internet - The Hang Seng Internet Technology Index saw a slight increase of 0.18%, with stocks like Beike and Dingdong rising by 6.34% and 3.85% respectively [31][36]. - The competition in the e-commerce sector remains fierce, with significant subsidy initiatives impacting profitability [31][38]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng Media Index rose by 2.2%, with stocks like NetEase Cloud Music and iQIYI showing positive performance [37][42]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization reached $374.04 billion, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 8.8% and 17.9% respectively [41][43]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing development of regulatory frameworks for virtual assets in both the US and Hong Kong [48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense competition between traditional e-commerce platforms and instant retail, emphasizing that Meituan is the aggressor in this battle, aiming to redefine consumer expectations regarding time and space in shopping [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Competition Dynamics - The competition is not merely about winning or losing but is a life-and-death struggle for survival between traditional e-commerce and instant retail [4][5]. - Meituan's aggressive push into instant retail, particularly through its Xiaoxiang supermarket initiative, has put significant pressure on traditional e-commerce platforms [5][6]. - Other e-commerce platforms are now forced to respond to Meituan's advances to protect their market share and customer base [7][8]. Group 2: Concept of Time in E-commerce - Instant retail addresses the immediate consumer need for products, which traditional e-commerce struggles to fulfill due to longer delivery times [11][12][16]. - Consumers often prefer to pay a premium for immediate access to products rather than wait for delivery, highlighting the limitations of traditional e-commerce [15][20]. - The convenience of 30-minute delivery from instant retail can lead to a permanent shift in consumer behavior, making traditional e-commerce less appealing [21][22]. Group 3: Concept of Space in E-commerce - Instant retail can change consumers' perceptions of space, as it allows for the immediate acquisition of goods without the need to store them at home [23][25]. - Traditional e-commerce requires consumers to occupy physical space with products, while instant retail offers the possibility of freeing up that space [28][30]. - The shift towards instant retail could lead to a significant reduction in the need for consumers to stockpile goods, fundamentally altering the e-commerce landscape [29][32]. Group 4: Market Implications - The potential loss of customers to instant retail could destabilize traditional e-commerce platforms, as these customers help to dilute operational costs [36][38]. - The article draws parallels between the fragility of large systems and the potential impact of losing even a small percentage of customers on traditional e-commerce platforms [39][42]. - Meituan's determination to dominate the market is evident, as it consolidates resources to focus on its instant retail strategy, indicating a serious threat to traditional e-commerce [43][44].

Core Insights - The ongoing "subsidy war" among major delivery platforms has led to a significant increase in order volumes and rider incomes, with Meituan reporting a record 1.5 billion orders as of July 12, 2023 [1][3] - The competition is intensifying as platforms like JD.com and Alibaba's Taobao have entered the market, with substantial user engagement and order numbers reported [3][4] Summary by Category Order Volume and Rider Income - Meituan's instant retail order volume reached 1.5 billion, with over 50 million "hot orders" and 35 million "meal orders" [1] - Rider daily income increased by 111% and daily order volume grew by 33% from June 5 to July 5 [2] - The average monthly income for high-frequency riders exceeded 10,000 yuan, with over 400,000 riders earning more than 500 yuan daily [2][3] Competitive Landscape - The competition among Meituan, Ele.me, and JD.com has created a "three-way battle" in the delivery market, with each platform employing aggressive subsidy strategies [4] - JD.com launched its delivery service with a "zero commission" strategy, prompting Alibaba to enhance its Taobao service to compete [3][4] Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Consumers have reported experiencing significant discounts, with some orders costing as low as zero yuan due to heavy subsidies [3] - However, there are indications that the intensity of subsidies may be decreasing, with some platforms limiting coupon usage to specific brands and locations [4] - Industry experts predict a shift in focus from "traffic + subsidies" to "supply + experience," emphasizing the importance of quality in the delivery service [4]