小鹏第三季收入达200亿元人民币(下同)，同比及按季分别增长102%及12%，大致符合该行预期。综合 毛利率为20.1%，同比及按季上升4.8及2.8个百分点，好过该行预期的17.7%。整车利润率为13.1%，同 比升4.5个百分点，按季跌1.2个百分点，主要因清库存而进行促销。期内非通用会计准则净亏损1.52亿 元，好过该行预期的净亏损3.98亿元。展望第四季，小鹏管理层预期交付量为12.5万至13.2万辆，同比 增长37%至44%，收入为215亿至230亿元，同比增长34%至43%。 美银证券发布研报称，下调对小鹏汽车-W(09868)的2025年销量预测1%，但将2026及27年预测分别上调 3%及5%; 将2025年非通用会计准则净亏损预测由10.94亿元下调至8.84亿元，同时将2026及27年非通用 会计准则净利润分别下调20%及9%。该行对小鹏港股目标价由105港元升至109港元，美股(XPEV.US)目 标价由27美元升至28美元，反映销量预测上调，重申"买入"评级，看好2026年强劲的产品布局。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent market rumors suggested that XPeng Motors (9868.HK) would produce thousands of autonomous taxis annually between 2026 and 2027, but the company has confirmed that these claims are not based on official data [1][2]. Group 1: Company Response - XPeng Motors verified the market rumors and found them to be unsubstantiated, clarifying that the information originated from a predictive analysis report rather than actual production plans [2]. - The original source of the rumor has since been modified to indicate that analysts estimated the annual production of autonomous taxis by XPeng Motors could be within the thousands during 2026-2027 [2]. Group 2: Company Announcements - On November 5, during the "2025 XPeng Technology Day," the company announced plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026 and initiate trial operations, with AutoNavi as the first global ecological partner for Robotaxi services [2]. - XPeng Motors reported a total delivery of 116,000 units in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 149.3%, and total revenue of RMB 20.38 billion, up 101.8% compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. Group 3: Market Performance - On November 19, XPeng Motors' stock experienced slight fluctuations, closing at HKD 85.70 per share, down 0.29%, with a total market capitalization of HKD 163.7 billion [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent quarterly earnings reports from electric vehicle manufacturers, particularly Xiaopeng Motors and Leap Motor, have raised concerns in the market, leading to significant stock price declines. The automotive industry is expected to undergo changes due to factors such as price reductions in electric vehicles and the reintroduction of vehicle purchase taxes in 2026 [2][4][9]. Company Performance - Xiaopeng Motors reported a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan for Q3, a year-on-year increase of nearly 100%, with total deliveries of approximately 116,000 units, up 149.3% year-on-year. However, the company incurred a net loss of 380 million yuan, although this represented a narrowing of losses compared to previous periods. The forecast for Q4 deliveries is between 125,000 and 132,000 units, indicating a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3% [5][6]. - Leap Motor achieved a revenue of 19.45 billion yuan in Q3, nearly doubling year-on-year, and reported a net profit of 150 million yuan, marking a return to profitability despite an 8% decline from the previous quarter. The total delivery volume for Q3 was 173,800 units, with October deliveries reaching 70,300 units [5][6]. - Geely Automobile, as a traditional automaker, reported Q3 revenue of 89.2 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.82 billion yuan, up 59% year-on-year. The total sales volume for Q3 was 761,000 units, reflecting a 43% year-on-year growth [5][6]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The stock prices of Xiaopeng and Leap Motor fell significantly after their earnings reports, with Xiaopeng's stock dropping by 10.47% to 85.85 HKD, while Geely's stock saw a smaller decline of 1.16% [4][8]. - Analysts suggest that the automotive sector is experiencing a weak performance, with declining sales data and concerns over the impact of the vehicle purchase tax reinstatement in 2026. This may lead to a slowdown in growth for the industry, prompting companies to enhance sales volumes to mitigate margin pressures [6][10]. - The average price reduction for electric vehicles in October was 18,000 yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, indicating a competitive pricing environment as companies prepare for the upcoming tax changes [9][10].

Group 1 - Bank of America Securities has lowered its 2025 sales forecast for XPeng Motors (09868) by 1%, while increasing the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 3% and 5% respectively [1] - The non-GAAP net loss forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 1.094 billion yuan to 884 million yuan, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 non-GAAP net profit have been reduced by 20% and 9% respectively [1] - The target price for XPeng's Hong Kong stock has been raised from 105 HKD to 109 HKD, and the target price for its US stock (XPEV.US) has been increased from 27 USD to 28 USD, reflecting the upward revision in sales forecasts [1] Group 2 - XPeng's revenue for the third quarter reached 20 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 102% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12%, which is in line with the bank's expectations [1] - The overall gross margin was 20.1%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, exceeding the bank's forecast of 17.7% [1] - The vehicle profit margin was 13.1%, an increase of 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, but a decrease of 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to promotional activities for inventory clearance [1] Group 3 - For the fourth quarter, XPeng's management expects delivery volumes to be between 125,000 and 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 37% to 44% [1] - Revenue for the fourth quarter is projected to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 34% to 43% [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 122.71 [6][14]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of RMB 20.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120%, and a net loss of RMB 3.8 billion, narrowing losses by 79% year-on-year [1][4]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 reached 20.1%, marking a significant improvement due to scale effects and cost control measures [2][4]. - The company is optimistic about its growth prospects in Q4 2025 and 2026, driven by multiple growth avenues including "dual energy + AI + robotics + external collaborations" [1][4]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue was RMB 20.4 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% and a year-on-year increase of 102% [1][19]. - The gross margin improved to 20.1%, up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, with vehicle gross margin at 13.1% [2][19]. - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to be between 125,000 and 132,000 units, projecting revenue of RMB 21.5 to 23 billion [2][19]. Business Segments - The automotive sales segment is projected to generate RMB 118 billion in revenue for 2026, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.95x [4][11]. - The humanoid robot business is valued at approximately RMB 40 billion, with significant advancements in humanoid capabilities expected by the end of 2026 [4][11]. - The Robotaxi business is estimated to be worth RMB 33 billion, with plans to launch three models by 2026 [4][11]. Market Position and Collaborations - The company is set to launch the new X9 super range extender vehicle, which is expected to achieve high sales volumes due to its advanced features [2][4]. - Collaboration with Volkswagen is anticipated to enhance revenue through technology service fees and new model launches [4][13]. Valuation - The overall market capitalization of the company is estimated at approximately RMB 215 billion, with a target price adjustment to HKD 122.71 [4][14]. - The report employs a segmented valuation approach, considering automotive sales, robotics, and Robotaxi businesses [4][11].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 0.69%, reaching a new low since early September. The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.38% and 0.26%, respectively [1][2]. Technology Sector - Major technology stocks mostly declined, with Xiaomi dropping nearly 5%, Kuaishou down over 1%, and slight declines in JD.com, Meituan, Baidu, and Tencent. Alibaba saw an increase of over 1% [2][4][5]. New Energy Vehicle Sector - Stocks in the new energy vehicle sector fell, including Li Auto, NIO, Chery, Beijing Automotive, BYD, and Leap Motor [6]. Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks experienced declines, with companies like Shanghai Fudan, Jingmen Semiconductor, and Zhongxing Communications reporting losses [7][8]. Gold Sector - Gold stocks led the market gains, with China Gold International rising over 8%. Other gold-related stocks also saw increases, driven by expectations of significant gold purchases by global central banks [9][10]. Military Industry - Military stocks performed well, with China Shipbuilding Industry rising over 9%. Analysts expect the military industry to enter an upward cycle, supported by recent quarterly reports indicating a narrowing decline in performance [11][12]. Oil Sector - Oil stocks saw an uptick, with China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation increasing nearly 3%. This rise is attributed to recent increases in crude oil futures prices [13]. Lithium Battery Sector - Lithium battery stocks gained, with Tianqi Lithium rising nearly 3%. The market for lithium carbonate has shown significant recovery, with prices expected to rise further due to increasing demand [15][16]. Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued adjustments in the Hong Kong stock market due to weak macro liquidity and corporate earnings forecasts. Investors are advised to wait for clearer signals from U.S. monetary policy and mainland economic data before seeking rebound opportunities [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance met expectations, with total revenue reaching 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [8] - The automotive sales revenue was 18.05 billion yuan, up 105.3% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter, driven by the growth in new model deliveries [8] - The net loss for Q3 narrowed to 380 million yuan from 480 million yuan in Q2, with a non-GAAP net loss of 150 million yuan [8] - The overall gross margin improved to 20.1%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8] - The company is advancing its AI business across four dimensions, including smart driving, Robotaxi, robotics, and flying cars, with clear implementation timelines [8] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 78.5 billion, 140.2 billion, and 201.0 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 92%, 79%, and 43% respectively [8] - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised to -1.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 9.5 billion yuan [8] - The EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be -0.71, 2.81, and 4.99 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26 and 15 times for 2026 and 2027 respectively [8]

Core Insights - The recent performance of electric vehicle manufacturers, particularly Xiaopeng and Li Auto, has raised concerns in the market, leading to significant stock price declines following their earnings reports [1][2][4] - The automotive industry is expected to undergo changes due to the reintroduction of vehicle purchase tax for electric vehicles starting in 2026, which may affect consumer choices and market dynamics [5][6][7] Company Performance - Xiaopeng Motors reported a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan for Q3, a year-on-year increase of nearly 100%, but incurred a net loss of 380 million yuan, although this loss narrowed compared to previous periods [2][3] - Li Auto achieved a revenue of 19.45 billion yuan in Q3, nearly doubling year-on-year, with a net profit of 150 million yuan, but experienced an 8% decline in net profit compared to the previous quarter [2][3] - Geely's Q3 revenue reached 89.2 billion yuan, a 27% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.82 billion yuan, up 59% year-on-year, and total sales of 761,000 units, a 43% increase [3] Market Dynamics - Xiaopeng's stock price fell by 10.47% to 85.85 HKD, marking a cumulative decline of over 20% since November 12, while Geely's stock fell by 1.16% to 17 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization of 172 billion HKD [2] - The average selling price of Xiaopeng vehicles decreased by 0.8 million yuan to 156,000 yuan, with a gross margin of 13.1%, slightly below market expectations [3] - The automotive sector is experiencing a weak performance overall, with concerns about declining sales data and the impact of upcoming policy changes on growth rates [4][6] Future Outlook - The reintroduction of the vehicle purchase tax in 2026 is expected to slow down the growth of the passenger vehicle market, potentially leading to increased promotional activities among electric vehicle manufacturers [6][7] - Analysts suggest that the automotive industry will see a differentiation among companies, with stronger competitors likely to emerge as the market adjusts to the new tax environment [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a strong product cycle, overseas expansion, advancements in autonomous driving, and emerging business opportunities in robotics and Robotaxi [7]. - The company delivered 116,007 vehicles in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 149%, leading to a revenue growth of 102% to 20.38 billion yuan [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 20.1%, with a notable improvement in profitability as the net loss narrowed significantly [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 20.38 billion yuan, with automotive sales revenue of 18.1 billion yuan and service revenue of 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 105% and 78% respectively [1]. - The company’s Q3 net loss was 380 million yuan, a significant reduction compared to previous periods, with a Non-GAAP net loss of 150 million yuan, narrowing by 90% year-on-year [1]. - The projected total revenue for Q4 is expected to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [2]. Product and Market Outlook - The company plans to launch the X9 super range extender model on November 20, with additional models set to be released in early 2026 [3]. - The overseas market is showing strong growth, with Q1-Q3 overseas deliveries reaching 29,706 units, a 79% increase year-on-year [4]. - The company is enhancing its autonomous driving capabilities with the introduction of the VLA 2.0 model, which significantly improves performance in complex driving scenarios [5]. Future Projections - The company forecasts total vehicle sales of approximately 440,000, 700,000, and 910,000 units for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with total revenues projected to reach 773 billion yuan by 2025 [7][8]. - The gross margin is expected to remain around 20% for Q4, with a long-term target of achieving a Non-GAAP net profit margin of 5.1% by 2027 [2][8].

Core Insights - The report from Daiwa indicates that Xiaopeng Motors experienced a strong growth in new car sales and technology services, leading to a year-on-year revenue increase of 102% to 20.4 billion yuan [1] - The gross margin reached 20.1%, an improvement of 4.8 percentage points compared to the same period last year and an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] - The net profit for the company was reported at 381 million yuan [1] - The company aims to achieve breakeven by the fourth quarter of 2025 [1] - Due to the continuous improvement in gross margin and enhanced competitiveness in the fields of autonomous taxi services and humanoid robots, Daiwa upgraded its rating from "Hold" to "Buy" and raised the target price for U.S. stocks from $24 to $29 [1]