Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is Neutral, maintained [7] Core Insights - The steel prices have been fluctuating within a range since Q4 2024, supported by low inventory levels, while the dual coke prices have weakened rapidly under expectations of supply easing, which has been a key factor for steel companies' rebound [2][4] - The industry is experiencing a decline in revenue, with a projected year-on-year decrease of 10.0% in 2024 and 10.3% in Q1 2025, alongside a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.8% [2][4] - Cost pressures are easing, with costs expected to decrease by 8.7% year-on-year in 2024 and 12.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025, along with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.1% [2][4] - Profitability is showing signs of recovery, with a rebound in net profit in Q1 2025, turning from losses in the previous year [2][4] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to drop to -1.63% in 2024 but is expected to rebound to 2.12% in Q1 2025 [2][4] Summary by Sections Cost Pressure Easing and Profitability Improvement - The steel price decline is driven by weak demand and easing cost pressures, leading to a projected revenue decline of 10.0% in 2024 and 10.3% in Q1 2025 [2][4] - The cost of production is expected to decrease, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7% in 2024 and 12.1% in Q1 2025, alongside a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.1% [2][4] - The industry is experiencing a significant recovery in profitability, with a projected gross profit increase of 30% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [2][4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the steel sector, such as Baosteel and Nanjing Steel, which are expected to enhance shareholder returns [4] - It also highlights the potential of quality new materials in sectors like military and automotive, indicating a favorable investment environment as the industry transitions from valuation recovery to fundamental recovery [4]

Group 1: Production and Sales - In 2024, the company achieved a steel production of 51.41 million tons, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, and sales of 51.59 million tons, down 0.6% [1] - Cold-rolled plate sales reached 21.21 million tons, an increase of 3.4% [1] - The company exported 6.067 million tons of steel, marking a historical high with a growth of 3.94% [1] Group 2: Revenue and Profitability - The total operating revenue for 2024 was 322.116 billion yuan, a decline of 6.60% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased market demand and lower sales prices [2] - The average steel price in 2024 was 4,523 yuan per ton, down 6.57% [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 5.5%, a decrease of 0.75 percentage points [2] Group 3: Expenses and Net Profit - The expense ratio for 2024 was 3.34%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points [3] - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.362 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 38.36% [3] - In Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.434 billion yuan, an increase of 26.4% [3] Group 4: Financial Health and Dividends - The company's asset-liability ratio for 2024 was 39.7%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points [3] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.21 yuan per share for H2 2024, accounting for 61.34% of the net profit for that period [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing product structure and investing in advanced technology to enhance core competitiveness [4] - Future net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 9.758 billion, 10.467 billion, and 11.452 billion yuan, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][26]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a decline in net profit by 38% in 2024, with revenue projected at 322.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year. However, the company maintains a strong cash flow with operating cash flow increasing by 9.6% to 27.74 billion yuan [5][6]. - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 2.15 billion yuan in the second half of 2024, which, along with previously distributed cash dividends and share buybacks, will total 5.31 billion yuan, representing 72.1% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [5][6]. - The company is focusing on product structure upgrades and maintaining stable operations despite industry pressures, with steel sales expected to remain flat at 51.6 million tons in 2024 [6][26]. Financial Performance and Projections - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 322.1 billion yuan and a net profit of 7.36 billion yuan, with a significant recovery expected in 2025, where net profit is forecasted to rise to 9.75 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.4% [3][26]. - The company plans to produce 48.79 million tons of iron and 52.61 million tons of steel in 2025, with total revenue expected to reach 312 billion yuan [6][25]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.44 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15.6x [26][27].

Group 1 - As of April 28, 215 A-share companies have been newly held by social security funds in Q1 2023, with some companies having over 10% of their circulating shares held by these funds [1][2][3] - Notable companies include Andar Intelligent, which has 265.16 million shares held by the National Social Security Fund 103 portfolio, accounting for 12.15% of its circulating shares [1][3] - Industries such as metal smelting, chemical products, and communications are currently favored by social security fund portfolios, with companies like Baosteel, Cangge Mining, and Yiwei Lithium Energy being newly held [1][2][3] Group 2 - The National Social Security Fund 114 portfolio holds 158 million shares of Baosteel, with a market value of 1.14 billion yuan, making it the largest holding among newly acquired A-shares [2][8] - Cangge Mining and Yiwei Lithium Energy also show significant performance, with net profits of 447 million yuan (up 41.19%) and 1.1 billion yuan (up 3.32%) respectively in Q1 [2][8] - Other companies with strong Q1 performance include Baosteel, Cangge Mining, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, which are currently favored by social security funds [2][3] Group 3 - The QFII (Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor) also shows a diverse portfolio, with significant holdings in companies like Zijin Mining and Tonghuashun, indicating a broader industry focus compared to social security funds [9][10] - QFII has increased its holdings in various sectors, including finance and pharmaceuticals, while social security funds focus more on blue-chip and cyclical stocks [9][10] - The performance of different sectors in Q2 shows that public utilities, beauty care, agriculture, banking, and retail have seen increases, while basic chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and steel have declined [10]

Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to weak steel industry conditions, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, leading to a "buy" rating for the stock [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Baosteel achieved revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 6.60%, and a net profit of 7.362 billion yuan, down 38.36% year-over-year, which was below previous expectations [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 72.880 billion yuan, a year-over-year decline of 9.82% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 8.05%, with a net profit of 2.434 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 26.37% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 64.49% [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Conditions - The steel industry faced a decline in both production and sales in 2024, with output and sales volumes of 51.41 million tons and 51.59 million tons, respectively, representing decreases of 1.0% and 0.6% year-over-year [2]. - The average selling price of steel products was 4,056 yuan per ton (excluding tax), down 6.9% year-over-year, indicating a significant drop in industry profitability [2]. - The average sales profit margin for key enterprises in the steel industry was 0.71% in 2024, down 0.63 percentage points year-over-year, highlighting the industry's challenging conditions [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The steel industry is expected to undergo supply-side optimization, with government efforts to control production and prevent excessive competition, which may lead to a recovery in industry profits [3]. - Predictions for 2025 suggest that global iron ore production capacity will continue to expand, potentially leading to a decrease in iron ore prices and further recovery in steel industry profits [3]. - The company has adjusted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.43, 0.56, and 0.65 yuan, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment for 2025-2026 due to lower steel price expectations [4].

24 年行业景气度下滑，公司业绩承压 华泰研究 年报点评 2025 年 4 月 29 日│中国内地 钢铁 证券研究报告 宝钢股份 (600019 CH) 宝钢股份发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年实现营收 3221.16 亿元（yoy-6.60%），归母净利 73.62 亿元（yoy-38.36%），低于我们先前的 预期（归母净利 89.56 亿元），主因钢铁行业景气偏弱。2025 Q1 实现营收 728.80 亿元（yoy-9.82%、qoq-8.05%），归母净利 24.34 亿元（yoy+26.37%、 qoq+64.49%）。钢铁行业供给侧优化或渐近，公司作为行业龙头，有望充 分受益于行业利润修复，维持"买入"评级。 2024 年钢铁行业景气度下滑，公司业绩承压 公司 2024 年钢铁产品产量和销量分别为 5141、5159 万吨，同比-1.0%、 -0.6%；钢材综合平均销售价格 4056 元/吨（不含税），同比-6.9%，主因钢 铁行业景气度下滑较多，但价格下行幅度少于中钢协 CSPI钢材价格指数（同 比-13.05%）。公司 2024 年销售毛利率、期间费用率、净利率分别 ...

Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. is expanding its steel production capacity through strategic investments, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and product quality while navigating a challenging market environment [1][2]. Group 1: Investment and Capacity Expansion - Baosteel announced an investment of 9 billion yuan to acquire a 49% stake in Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., which will increase its controlled steel production capacity to over 80 million tons [1]. - The company plans to achieve a steel production capacity of 80 to 100 million tons by 2025, compared to China's total crude steel output of approximately 1.005 billion tons last year [1]. - Baosteel also acquired a 48.6% stake in Shandong Steel Group Rizhao Co., Ltd. for 10.703 billion yuan, making it the second-largest shareholder [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In the previous year, Baosteel reported revenue of 322.1 billion yuan, a 6% decrease year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.3 billion yuan, down 38%, marking the lowest profit since 2015 [2]. - Despite the decline, Baosteel remained the most profitable listed steel company in China, while Maanshan Iron & Steel reported a loss of 4.17 billion yuan [2]. Group 3: Strategic Product Development - Baosteel's previous product strategy was "1+1+N," focusing on automotive sheets, silicon steel, and other high-margin products, which accounted for 60% of total sales [3]. - The company has revised its product strategy to "2+2+N," adding long products and thick plates, with a sales target of 32.59 million tons for this year [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Export Performance - The domestic steel industry is expected to see a 2% decline in total demand this year, with construction steel demand continuing to decrease while manufacturing steel demand shows slight growth [4]. - Baosteel's steel exports reached a record high of 6.07 million tons last year, accounting for 12% of total sales, with a target of maintaining exports above 6 million tons this year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with a slight recovery in Q1 2025, indicating a mixed performance trend [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 322.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.362 billion yuan, down 38.36% year-on-year - In Q4 2024, revenue was 79.26 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.43% year-on-year and 0.43% quarter-on-quarter - For Q1 2025, revenue was 72.88 billion yuan, down 9.82% year-on-year and 8.05% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit increased to 2.434 billion yuan, up 26.37% year-on-year and 64.49% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Sales and Margins - Steel sales in 2024 were 51.59 million tons, a slight decline of 0.6% year-on-year - The average product price in 2024 was 4,507 yuan/ton, down 6.89% year-on-year - The gross margin for 2024 was 5.45%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points year-on-year, while Q1 2025 gross margin improved to 7.22%, an increase of 2.09 percentage points year-on-year and 1.18 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.10 yuan per share, totaling approximately 2.15 billion yuan, with an annual total of 4.516 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.34% - A new minimum dividend clause has been introduced, ensuring a minimum payout of 0.20 yuan per share while maintaining upward flexibility [2]. Future Outlook - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure, with a 9.6% year-on-year increase in "1+1+N" product sales to 30.59 million tons in 2024 - Key projects are progressing, including various high-end steel production initiatives - The company is expanding its international presence, with a 3.9% year-on-year increase in export sales to 6.067 million tons in 2024 and a historic breakthrough with the establishment of its first overseas full-process steel plant in Saudi Arabia [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 9.83 billion yuan, 11.12 billion yuan, and 12.43 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of 7.98 RMB [5][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 322.12 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.36 billion RMB, down 38.36% year-on-year, primarily due to weak industry conditions [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 72.88 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 9.82% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 8.05%, with a net profit of 2.43 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 64.49% [1][3]. - The steel industry is expected to undergo supply-side optimization, which may lead to a recovery in industry profits, benefiting the company as a leading player in the sector [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's steel product output and sales for 2024 were 51.41 million tons and 51.59 million tons, respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.0% and 0.6% [2]. - The average selling price of steel products was 4,056 RMB per ton (excluding tax), down 6.9% year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit margin, expense ratio, and net profit margin for 2024 were 5.45%, 3.34%, and 2.66%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.75, +0.3, and -1.33 percentage points [2]. Industry Outlook - The steel industry faced significant oversupply in 2024, with the average sales profit margin for key enterprises at 0.71%, down 0.63 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Government measures to control steel production and prevent excessive competition indicate a potential restart of supply-side optimization [4]. - The global iron ore production capacity is expected to continue expanding in 2025, which may lead to a further decline in iron ore prices and a recovery in steel industry profits [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.43, 0.56, and 0.65 RMB, with adjustments reflecting a 13% decrease and a 5% increase for 2025-2026 compared to previous estimates [5]. - The book value per share (BVPS) for 2025-2026 is estimated at 9.40 and 9.53 RMB, respectively [5]. - The target price of 7.98 RMB is based on an average price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.84X since 2017 [5].

公司发布2024 年报及2025 年一季报，业绩符合市场预期。2024 年，公司实现营收3221.16 亿元，同比 下降6.6%，归母净利润73.62 亿元，同比下降38.36%；24Q4 公司实现归母净利润14.8 亿元，同比下降 58.82%，环比增长10.63%；25Q1 公司实现归母净利润24.34 亿元，同比增长26.37%，环比增长 64.49%。 风险提示：下游需求不及预期，钢价低于预期；铁矿石和焦煤价格高于预期，成本高位影响公司盈利水 平 优势产品维持强势，打造差异化竞争能力。根据公司公告，2024 年，公司持续强化产品差异化能力， 冷轧汽车板和硅钢产品持续保持高市占率，全年实现"1+1+N"产品销量3059 万吨，同比上升9.6%，出 口销量606.7 万吨，同比上升3.9%。 公司重视分红，2024 年分红率预计约61.34％。根据公司公告，2024 年下半年公司拟派发现金股利0.1 元/股（含税，下同），且考虑到2024 年9 月公司已按每股现金股利0.11元分配半年度利润，2024 年度 预计派发现金股利合计0.21 元/股，预计分红总额占合并报表归属于母公司股东净利润的61.34％， ...