中信建投证券2026年资本市场峰会暨中国－沙特投资合作论坛 马静/摄 11月11日，在这个特别的日子，两大头部券商的年度策略会"一南一北"拉开帷幕。中信证券2026年资本市场年 会在深圳召开，中信建投证券2026年资本市场峰会暨中国－沙特投资合作论坛在北京举行。 "人气旺""规格高""国际化浓度高"是券商中国记者现场参会的最大感受。以中信建投为例，据了解，这是沙特 交易所首次与中资券商联合举办策略会，沙特交易所CEO穆罕默德·艾·鲁迈赫在致辞中指出，过去十年，中国 和沙特之间的关系已经从贸易为中心发展到以战略金融合作为特征的关系。除了资本市场，中沙更广泛的经济 伙伴关系正持续以令人印象深刻的速度在扩展。 展望2026年，两家券商对A股走势研判存在共识。中信证券首席A股策略师裘翔研判，A股行情或迈向低波动 慢牛。中信建投证券首席经济学家黄文涛则提到，A股牛市有望持续，预计指数依然震荡上行但涨幅放缓。 两大券商高管最新发声 两家券商的策略会现场人气都非常足，主论坛不仅座无虚席，连会场的后面、侧面都站立着不少听会嘉宾，直 至上午论坛全部结束。论坛上，两家券商高管在致辞中对经济形势、行业发展也分享了最新看法。 中信建 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that consumer performance tends to improve when the economic fundamentals start to recover, with profitability elasticity determining the sustainability and resilience of the uptrend [1] - Current macroeconomic conditions remain weak, indicating that the recovery of consumer sentiment will take time, with short-term opportunities linked to potential fiscal stimulus policies [1] - For 2026, the focus should be on opportunities driven by wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization, highlighting the importance of changes in consumer structure over the long term [1] Group 2 - In the social services sector, a differentiated recovery in service consumption is expected in 2025, influenced by macroeconomic factors, wealth effects, competitive dynamics, and policy guidance [2] - The K-shaped recovery trend is anticipated to continue into 2026, with low base effects for leading mid-range consumer brands and a shift from pilot exploration to scaled replication in overseas demand [2] - Three main investment themes are recommended: high demand elasticity in the recovery phase for gaming companies and leading ready-to-drink brands, quality targets in leisure travel, and stable, growth-oriented leaders in cyclical sectors [2]

Group 1: Major Asset Allocation Insights - The report suggests increasing allocation to domestic stocks and commodities, with a focus on large-cap stocks and a balanced growth-value approach [1][2] - The macro factor adjustment model indicates a weight increase for domestic stocks and commodities to 20.8% and 9.3% respectively, with the Hang Seng Index weight raised by approximately 7.3% [2] - As of October 2025, the latest macro factor adjustment signals indicate the following asset weightings: government bonds (20.9%), energy and chemicals (16.0%), metals (14.0%), Hang Seng Index (13.5%), CSI 300 (12.7%), CSI 1000 (12.3%), gold (5.4%), and S&P 500 (5.2%) [2] Group 2: Stock Style Allocation Insights - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed outlook, with a decrease in the PMI new orders index and an improvement in the year-on-year industrial added value, suggesting a favorable environment for value and large-cap styles [2] - Liquidity indicators, such as the M1-M2 scissors difference and SHIBOR rates, support a positive outlook for large-cap styles [2] - The market indicators suggest a preference for large-cap styles, with a balanced approach to growth and value styles recommended for November 2025 [2] Group 3: Stock Industry Allocation Insights - The multi-dimensional industry ETF rotation model identifies high-value industries such as coal, photovoltaics, telecommunications, and agriculture with strong configuration value [3] - As of October, the stock industry rotation strategy indicates high configuration value for coal, photovoltaics, telecommunications, and agriculture, recommending equal-weight allocation to these sectors [3] - The macro factor adjustment asset allocation, stock style rotation, and stock industry configuration strategies have all achieved positive absolute returns year-to-date [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that "low expectations and low valuations" combined with the resilience of consumer spending are expected to enhance the funding preference for consumer allocations, with a focus on the potential recovery of consumption as the economic fundamentals begin to improve [1] Group 1: Current Market Analysis - The overall consumption sector is currently weak, with structural differentiation and company performance facing downward pressure, leading to a "bottoming out" phase for earnings and valuations [2] - Retail sales growth in the first half of 2025 showed signs of recovery due to government policies like "trade-in for new," but the growth rate fell to 3% in September as the effectiveness of these policies diminished [1][2] - High-end consumption is stabilizing, with luxury brands like LVMH and Kering reporting positive growth in Asia, and Macau's gaming revenue reaching over 91% of 2019 levels in October [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The historical performance of the consumer sector during previous bull markets suggests that significant increases typically occur when economic fundamentals improve, with the current cycle expected to show structural recovery rather than rapid growth [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-end consumption recovery driven by capital market wealth effects and operational turning points due to supply-side optimization [3] Group 3: Long-term Structural Opportunities - The report stresses the importance of focusing on structural changes in consumer demand, which reflect a long-term trend from goods to services and from survival to experience [4] - Key areas for long-term investment include new products related to emotional and health needs, advancements in technology (AI and biotechnology), changes in distribution channels, and expansion into new markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that the four major constraints limiting the development of China's institutional rental housing industry have changed, indicating significant growth potential for institutionalization in housing rental [1] Group 1: Industry Development - In the medium to long term, there is considerable room for growth in the institutionalization rate of housing rental agencies in China [1] - The current surge in real estate investment institutionalization and the development of real estate funds may lead to long-term rental apartments becoming a pioneering asset, driving the revaluation of certain assets [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - For heavy asset sectors, investors are advised to focus on regional factors [1] - In the light asset platform sector, investors are encouraged to concentrate on synergy and scale factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis by CITIC Securities indicates that consumer performance tends to improve when the economic fundamentals begin to recover, with the elasticity of earnings determining the sustainability and resilience of the uptrend [1] Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment remains weak, suggesting that the recovery of consumer sentiment will take time [1] - Short-term opportunities in consumption may arise from potential fiscal stimulus policies [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - For 2026, the focus should be on operational turning points driven by wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization [1] - Long-term investment strategies should emphasize changes in consumer structure, particularly in four key areas: new products/categories (high certainty demand in emotions and health), new technologies (AI+ and biotechnology), new channels (channel transformation under price-performance demand), and new markets (internationalization and market penetration) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that consumer performance tends to improve when the economic fundamentals begin to recover, with profitability elasticity determining the sustainability and resilience of the uptrend [1] Group 1: Current Economic Environment - The current macroeconomic environment remains weak, suggesting that the recovery of consumer sentiment will take time [1] - Short-term consumer opportunities may arise from potential fiscal stimulus policies [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - By 2026, the focus should be on opportunities driven by wealth effect transmission and supply-side optimization leading to operational turning points [1] - Long-term investment strategies should emphasize changes in consumer structure, particularly in four key areas: new products/categories (high certainty demand in emotions and health), new technologies (AI and biotechnology), new channels (channel transformation under cost-performance demand), and new markets (internationalization and market penetration) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a differentiated recovery in the service sector consumption by 2025, influenced by macroeconomic factors, wealth effects, competitive dynamics, and policy guidance [1] Demand Side - The expectation of a K-shaped recovery trend remains, with leading brands in the mid-range consumer segment benefiting from a low base effect [1] - The demand for overseas expansion is transitioning from pilot exploration to large-scale replication [1] Supply Side - Normalized supply innovation is expected to enhance emotional value premiums, with policy guidance playing a positive role [1] - AI empowerment is anticipated to improve efficiency and optimize costs [1] Investment Recommendations - Three main investment lines are suggested: 1. Companies in the gaming and ready-to-drink beverage sectors with high demand elasticity during recovery [1] 2. Quality targets in the leisure travel sector [1] 3. Leading companies in cyclical sectors that are stable and have growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery amidst fluctuations, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Market Development - The Chinese capital market has entered a new development phase, driven by global changes, technological trends, and institutional reforms [2]. - The restructuring of industries and finance globally presents opportunities for China, with a notable 7.1% year-on-year increase in exports in the first three quarters of this year [2]. - The resilience of Chinese manufacturing is highlighted, with local leading companies expected to transition into multinational giants, enhancing their pricing power [2]. Group 2: Technological Trends - The transition from old to new economic drivers, fueled by technology, is creating new opportunities in the capital market [3]. - Key technologies in China, such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology, are changing perceptions of the tech gap with the U.S., improving market risk appetite [3]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards new economic development, with the electronic sector's market capitalization surpassing that of the banking sector this year [3]. Group 3: Institutional Reforms - The optimization of the institutional environment is expected to reshape the market ecosystem, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of capital market systems [4]. - The focus will be on coordinating the development of investment and financing functions, with an emphasis on direct financing and supporting quality enterprises [4]. - There is a significant potential for increasing the proportion of residents' equity asset allocation, with efforts to create a favorable environment for long-term investments [4]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The Chinese economy is projected to achieve a growth target of around 5.0% in 2025 and maintain approximately 4.9% in 2026, with a "front low, back high" growth pattern anticipated [5]. - Fiscal policies are expected to be more proactive, with a deficit rate around 4% and an increase in special bond quotas directed towards project construction [5]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately loose, with potential for interest rate cuts and structural monetary tools to continue [5]. Group 5: Asset Allocation - The global macro environment is generally loose, with government bond yields expected to fluctuate, and the RMB is anticipated to appreciate moderately [5]. - Gold remains an attractive long-term asset for allocation [5]. - The focus on three main investment lines includes the revaluation of manufacturing pricing power, deepening corporate internationalization, and the continuation of the technology market [8][9]. Group 6: Investment Lines - The first investment line focuses on the revaluation of manufacturing pricing power, with an emphasis on sectors like non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and new energy [9]. - The second line involves the deepening of corporate internationalization, with attention on industries such as machinery, innovative pharmaceuticals, and military equipment [9]. - The third line is centered on the continuation of the technology market, particularly in areas like semiconductors, computing power, and AI applications [9].

Economic Outlook - Multiple institutions predict that China's economic growth will remain stable in 2026, with targets around 5% [2][3] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) expects a GDP growth of approximately 4.9% in 2026, supported by fiscal expansion and improved local government finances [2][3] - UBS anticipates that domestic economic activities will maintain resilience, with a potential "low at the beginning, high at the end" growth pattern for 2026 [2][3] Policy and Fiscal Measures - CICC forecasts that supply-side policies will focus on enhancing quality consumption while reducing inefficient capacity [3] - Fiscal policies are expected to remain proactive, with local special bonds and ultra-long-term special government bonds increasing in scale [3] - Monetary policy may include two reserve requirement ratio cuts totaling about 100 basis points and one to two interest rate cuts of 10 basis points each [3] A-Share Market Dynamics - The A-share market is transitioning from domestic-focused companies to global multinational corporations, indicating a shift towards a mature market [4] - Earnings for A-shares are projected to recover, with non-financial A-share growth expected to reach around 10% [4] - The market is likely to experience a more balanced style in 2026, driven by cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [5] Industry Trends - Key industry themes include the upgrading of traditional manufacturing, the globalization of Chinese enterprises, and the expansion of AI applications [5] - The "new economy" sectors are expected to grow faster than other economic sectors from 2026 to 2030, with their GDP contribution increasing by 3 percentage points by 2030 [3] - The macroeconomic environment and innovation trends are favorable for growth styles, with a potential shift in market dynamics due to past capacity reduction cycles [5]