Market Overview - The refining and trading sector increased by 1.02% on November 6, with Wanbangda leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4007.76, up 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13452.42, up 1.73% [1] Stock Performance - Wanbangda (300055) closed at 8.57, rising by 10.01% with a trading volume of 721,500 shares and a transaction value of 603 million yuan [1] - Unified Shares (600506) also rose by 10.01% to 28.58, with a trading volume of 433,400 shares and a transaction value of 1.164 billion yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Tongkun Co. (601233) up 6.18% to 14.78, Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up 6.01% to 18.52, and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) up 4.46% to 10.31 [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 337 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 249 million yuan [2] - The main funds showed significant inflows in stocks like Guanghui Energy (600256) and Unified Shares (600506), while retail investors withdrew from several stocks including Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hengli Petrochemical's stock price has shown a modest increase, with a year-to-date rise of 20.31%, indicating a stable performance in the market despite recent fluctuations in trading volume and net capital outflow [1][2]. Company Overview - Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is located in Dalian, Liaoning Province, and was established on March 9, 1999, with its listing date on August 20, 2001. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of polyester fibers, polyester films, and related products, as well as the production and sales of steam and electricity, PTA production and sales, and refining and petrochemical businesses [1]. - The main revenue composition of Hengli Petrochemical includes refining products (45.92%), PTA (31.10%), polyester products (19.24%), and others (3.73%) [1]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, 2025, Hengli Petrochemical reported a revenue of 157.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.02 billion yuan, down 1.61% year-on-year [2]. - The company has cumulatively distributed dividends of 26.14 billion yuan since its A-share listing, with 7.60 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Hengli Petrochemical was 67,300, a decrease of 9.54% from the previous period, with an average of 104,566 circulating shares per person, an increase of 10.55% [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 204 million shares, a decrease of 35.58 million shares compared to the previous period, while Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF is a new entrant holding 35.78 million shares [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance and potential dual improvement in performance and valuation [6] - The basic chemical sector has shown revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with significant profitability in sub-sectors like fluorochemicals and agricultural chemicals [4][6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the basic chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 7.46%, while the petroleum and petrochemical industry index underperformed by 21.06% [14] - The basic chemical industry achieved a revenue of CNY 17,645.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%, and a net profit of CNY 1,097.5 billion, up 6.3% [4][35] Basic Chemicals - The basic chemical sector's net profit growth rate exceeded revenue growth, with capital expenditures continuing to decline year-on-year [4][36] - In Q3 2025, the sector's revenue was CNY 6,051.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, while net profit reached CNY 366.4 billion, up 16.8% [4][35] Sub-sector Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, sub-sectors such as pesticides, adhesives, fluorochemicals, and potassium fertilizers saw significant year-on-year net profit growth [4][37] - The top ten sub-sectors by net profit growth included pesticides (174%) and fluorochemicals, with substantial increases in profitability observed [38]

Core Insights - The article highlights the rise of Changxing Island in China as a global chemical giant, showcasing the country's industrial strength and the factors contributing to its manufacturing dominance [1][2]. Group 1: Development of Changxing Island - Changxing Island has transformed from a rural area with farmland and fishing villages to a significant industrial hub in just over a decade, driven by a state-supported petrochemical industrial park [1]. - The island's strategic location with a deep-water port has been pivotal in its development, attracting investments and facilitating the establishment of a trillion-level green petrochemical industry cluster [1]. Group 2: Role of Domestic Enterprises - The success of Hengli Group, a polyester producer, exemplifies the impact of domestic enterprises on Changxing Island's industrial growth, with Hengli becoming one of the largest PTA production bases globally [2]. - China's support for domestic companies extends beyond financial aid, providing access to specialized technological knowledge, as seen with the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics located near Hengli's facilities [2]. Group 3: Global Implications - Concerns about China's dominance in PTA production are debated, with some arguing that it does not pose a significant threat to national security, as PTA is a bulk commodity that can be produced elsewhere if needed [3]. - However, the chemical industry is crucial as it underpins the production of various goods, and China's expanding dominance in chemical products could pose risks for other countries that overlook this sector [3].

Company Overview - Hengli Petrochemical's stock price decreased by 2.01% on November 4, trading at 17.59 CNY per share with a total market capitalization of 123.818 billion CNY [1] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of polyester fibers, polyester films, and related products, as well as steam and electricity production [1] - Main business revenue composition includes refining products (45.92%), PTA (31.10%), polyester products (19.24%), and others (3.73%) [1] Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hengli Petrochemical reported a revenue of 157.467 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 11.46% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 5.023 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.61% [2] Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders decreased by 9.54% to 67,300, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 10.55% to 104,566 shares [2] - The company has distributed a total of 26.136 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.602 billion CNY distributed in the last three years [3] - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 204 million shares, a decrease of 35.5818 million shares from the previous period [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance relative to the market index [5]. Core Insights - Hengli Petrochemical's Q3 performance showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 81.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 97.41% [4]. - The global petrochemical industry is experiencing a "de-involution" trend, with significant capacity reductions expected, which will benefit Hengli Petrochemical [4]. - The company's strong cash flow and reduced capital expenditures are expected to enhance its dividend capacity in the future [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, Hengli Petrochemical reported revenues of 157.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.46% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.02 billion yuan, down 1.61% year-on-year [4]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenues of 53.52 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.99% year-on-year but an increase of 14.13% quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 1.97 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 81.47% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 97.41% [4]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 236.9 billion yuan, 244.7 billion yuan, and 251.5 billion yuan, respectively, with slight growth rates [6]. - The net profit estimates for the same period are 7.32 billion yuan, 8.48 billion yuan, and 9.39 billion yuan, indicating a steady growth trajectory [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.04 yuan, 1.20 yuan, and 1.33 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6]. Market Position and Strategy - The report highlights the high concentration of production capacity among major players in the PTA market, which is expected to facilitate collaborative production cuts [4]. - Hengli Petrochemical's ongoing efforts to optimize its supply chain and reduce operational costs are expected to strengthen its competitive position in the industry [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The recent US-China talks have led to a potential recovery in demand, which is expected to positively impact the chemical industry [7] - The energy storage sector is driving an optimistic outlook for lithium battery demand, particularly benefiting the phosphate rock segment due to its rigid supply characteristics [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The chemical industry is facing challenges due to the US-China trade disputes, but recent negotiations have shown signs of easing tensions, which may stabilize demand [7] - The global energy storage battery shipments are projected to exceed 500 GWh in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 60% [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in companies that are well-positioned in the green polyester industry, such as Wankai New Materials (301216) [3] - Companies in the pesticide formulation sector, like Runfeng Co. (301035), Guoguang Co. (002749), and Hailier (603639), are also recommended for purchase due to their lower exposure to trade disputes [3] - The report highlights potential recovery in the petrochemical and chemical sectors, suggesting investments in Sinopec (600028), Hengli Petrochemical (600346), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Wanhua Chemical (600309), and Huayi Group (600623) [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in demand, driven by government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and transforming the industry [4][5] - The demand for chromium salts is anticipated to rise significantly due to increased orders for gas turbines and commercial aircraft engines in Europe and the US, leading to a projected supply gap by 2028 [8] - The report highlights the potential for high dividend yields and improved cash flow for leading companies in the chemical sector as capacity expansion slows down globally [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance increase of 23.0% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [2] Government Initiatives - A joint announcement from seven government departments outlines a plan for stable growth in the petrochemical industry, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% in value-added output from 2025 to 2026 [5] Market Dynamics - The price of chromium salts is on the rise, with significant increases noted in the prices of chromium metal and chromium oxide in October 2025 [8][18] - The report indicates that the chemical industry is transitioning from a "cash-consuming" phase to a "cash-generating" phase, with a focus on high-quality development and innovation [4][5] Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities identified include low-cost expansion in leading companies, improving market conditions for chromium salts, and high dividend yields from state-owned enterprises [9][10][11]

Report Information - Report Title: Big Refining Weekly Report: PTA Industry Development Symposium Held, Pay Attention to the Advancement of Anti-Involution in the Chemical Industry [1] - Report Date: November 2, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Chen Shuxian, Zhou Shaowen [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the big refining industry, including the performance of key refining projects, the polyester, refining, and chemical sectors, and the market performance of related listed companies [2] Summary by Directory 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Price and Spread Data**: Domestic key big refining project spread is 2,450 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton (down 4%) week-on-week; foreign key big refining project spread is 1,302 yuan/ton, up 79 yuan/ton (up 6%) week-on-week [2] - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices are 6,429/6,679/7,779 yuan/ton, up 21/61/46 yuan/ton respectively; POY/FDY/DTY industry weekly average profits are -17/-116/17 yuan/ton, down 88/62/72 yuan/ton respectively; POY/FDY/DTY industry inventories are 8.5/18.3/24.5 days, down 3.3/3.6/5.0 days respectively; filament开工率 is 90.9%, down 0.1 pct; downstream loom开工率 is 69.0%, up 2.6 pct; weaving enterprise raw material inventory is 14.0 days, up 2.9 days; weaving enterprise finished product inventory is 23.0 days, down 1.1 days [2] - **Refining Sector**: Domestic refined oil: gasoline/diesel prices declined this week; US refined oil: US gasoline/diesel/aviation kerosene prices rose this week [2] - **Chemical Sector**: This week's PX average price is 820.7 US dollars/ton, up 26.3 US dollars/ton; the spread to crude oil is 344.9 US dollars/ton, up 8.2 US dollars/ton; PX开工率 is 87.1%, up 0.8 pct [2] - **Related Listed Companies**: Private big refining & polyester filament: Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., Xin凤鸣 [2] 2. Big Refining Weekly Report 2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends - **Market Performance Comparison**: The report presents the price trends and spreads of domestic and foreign big refining projects, as well as the market performance of six private big refining companies compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, the petroleum and petrochemical index, and the Brent crude oil price [13][15][17] 2.2 Polyester Sector - **Price and Profit Analysis**: The report analyzes the prices, spreads, and profits of various polyester products, including PX, PTA, MEG, POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips, as well as their relationships with raw material prices and inventories [23][24][35] - **开工率 and Inventory Analysis**: It also examines the开工率 and inventory levels of polyester products and their downstream industries, such as looms, and analyzes the seasonal distribution of polyester filament production and sales rates [30][42][56] 2.3 Refining Sector - **Domestic Refined Oil**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [78][80][87] - **US Refined Oil**: It also examines the prices and spreads of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [92][94][101] - **European Refined Oil**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of European gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [106][108][114] - **Singapore Refined Oil**: It also examines the prices and spreads of Singapore gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene compared to crude oil prices [118][120][126] 2.4 Chemical Sector - **Price and Spread Analysis**: The report analyzes the prices and spreads of various chemical products, including polyethylene, polypropylene, EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, MMA, etc., compared to crude oil prices [132][141]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark [150] Core Insights - The report highlights an improvement in demand for polyester filament yarn, leading to a continued reduction in inventory levels [2] - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending October 31, 2025, was $65.18 per barrel, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.96% [2][3] - Domestic and international refining project price differentials were tracked, with domestic projects at 2337.32 CNY/ton, down 1.97%, and international projects at 1303.72 CNY/ton, up 6.53% [2][3] Refining Sector Summary - The market is questioning the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, while OPEC+ is inclined to slightly increase production in December [2] - The EIA inventory data provided positive support, alleviating concerns over trade tensions [2] - As of October 31, 2025, the prices for Brent and WTI crude oil were $65.07 and $60.98 per barrel, respectively [2][14] Chemical Sector Summary - Chemical prices generally declined, with significant narrowing of price differentials [2] - Polyolefins showed stable price movements, while EVA continued to weaken with noticeable price drops [2] - Benzene prices faced downward pressure due to high invisible inventory levels, leading to slight price fluctuations [2] Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - Demand for polyester filament yarn has rebounded, with inventory levels decreasing significantly [2] - The government has introduced policies to optimize the supply structure, improving medium to long-term supply-demand expectations [2] - The average prices for polyester filament yarn were reported as follows: POY at 6439.29 CNY/ton, FDY at 6675.00 CNY/ton, and DTY at 7725.00 CNY/ton [2][87] Major Refining Companies Performance - The stock price changes for six major refining companies as of October 31, 2025, were as follows: Rongsheng Petrochemical (+2.62%), Hengli Petrochemical (+6.40%), Dongfang Shenghong (-1.18%), Hengyi Petrochemical (-4.15%), Tongkun Co. (-0.49%), and Xin Fengming (+1.53%) [2][137]