Summary of the White Wine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The white wine sector experienced slight revenue growth from Q3 2024 to Q1 2025, but excluding leading brands like Moutai and Wuliangye, the revenue significantly declined, indicating weak seasonal sales and a trend of consumer downgrade [1][3] - The market shows low confidence in future profitability predictions for the white wine industry, with most companies failing to meet profit forecasts. A median decline in annual profits is expected, influenced by seasonal factors and anti-corruption measures [1][5] Key Financial Metrics - The gross profit margin for the white wine sector slightly increased by 0.5 percentage points in 2024, primarily due to a higher proportion of high-margin products rather than a reduction in competition or product upgrades [1][6] - In Q1 2025, the overall profit margin for the white wine industry declined by 9%, a slight improvement from a 12% decline in Q4 2024, reflecting a more volatile profit performance compared to revenue [15] Sales Performance - Q1 2025 sales performance was generally in line with market expectations, with Moutai achieving approximately 11% revenue growth, slightly above the expected 8-10% [2] - The white wine industry is expected to see a year-on-year decline in both sales volume and prices in 2025, with increased competition and rising costs impacting profitability [9] Distributor Dynamics - The number of distributors for most wine companies has increased, with distributors valuing the agency rights for leading brands despite low profit expectations [10] - Distributors are managing cash flow more carefully during industry downturns, utilizing bill acceptance to reduce funding costs [12] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Major festive periods like Spring Festival, Mid-Autumn Festival, and National Day account for over 70% of total sales, highlighting the importance of these peak seasons for annual performance [7][8] - The demand during the May Day holiday showed a significant increase in banquet-related sales, with growth rates of 20-30% [20] Investment Insights - The valuation of most white wine companies ranges from 13 to 16 times earnings, with potential for a 50% increase if they reach a valuation of 20 times [23] - Companies like Moutai and Fenjiu are recommended for long-term investment due to their strong brand power and sales performance, despite lower expected returns [25] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - More than half of the 18 major wine companies have a dividend payout ratio exceeding 60%, with Moutai and Wuliangye showing intentions for share buybacks, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [16][27] Future Outlook - The future development of the white wine sector will depend on the fundamental performance of companies and their ability to navigate external uncertainties. Brands with strong fundamentals and high win rates, such as Moutai and Fenjiu, are seen as solid investment choices [25][28]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Positive" [6] Core Views - The current value of domestic demand is highlighted, with a focus on companies with strong financial reports and sustained fundamentals. New consumption trends favor snacks, while traditional consumption is recommended for companies showing signs of recovery. The report emphasizes the strategy of "fishing in the domestic demand safe haven" and suggests prioritizing leading companies in the industry [1][23] - The report indicates that the liquor sector is in a transitional year for 2025, with a focus on companies with good fundamentals or those undergoing effective reforms. The report also highlights investment opportunities in snack companies and seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors [1][2] Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is currently at a low point, with the first quarter potentially being the lowest of the year. The report recommends focusing on brands with strong momentum and reasonable growth targets. The report suggests that the current external uncertainties, such as tariffs, enhance the value of domestic demand for liquor, potentially leading to a structural bull market in the sector [2][23] - Key recommendations include high-end liquor brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional brands like Gujing Gongjiu and Shanxi Fenjiu. The report also emphasizes the importance of "momentum continuation" and "low base recovery" strategies [2][23] Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a rebound, with a focus on snack companies benefiting from category dividends and new product launches in membership stores. The report continues to recommend seasonal stocking in the beer and beverage sectors, highlighting investment opportunities driven by retail transformation and cost cycles [1][27] - Recommended stocks include Salted Fish, Yili, Wanchen Group, Dongpeng Beverage, Qingdao Beer (A+H), Three Squirrels, and others [1][27] Performance Metrics - The liquor industry saw a revenue growth of 7.7% and a net profit growth of 7.56% in 2024. In Q1 2025, the industry reported a revenue growth of 1.8% and a net profit growth of 2.25%. The report suggests that the industry is currently in a bottom adjustment phase, with leading companies successfully navigating pressure tests [7][19] - Specific company performance includes Kweichow Moutai achieving a revenue of 514.43 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a growth of 10.67%, and a net profit of 268.47 billion yuan, a growth of 11.56% [17] Market Trends - The report notes that the overall valuation of the food and beverage industry has adjusted, with the industry trading at 21.79 times earnings. The liquor sector's valuation is at 19.69 times, while beer and wine are at 27.67 and 74.88 times, respectively [39] - The report also tracks price trends for key liquor brands, indicating stability in prices for Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [22][54]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The first quarter of 2025 showed a slight decline in the food and beverage index by 0.5%, ranking 13th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.1 percentage points. Other liquor categories (+2.2%), dairy products (+1.4%), and snacks (+1.4%) performed relatively well [10][12] - The food and beverage sector's revenue grew by 4.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, a slight decrease from 6.6% in Q4 2024. Profit increased by 0.3%, a significant improvement from the -13.0% in Q4 2024. The liquor segment saw a revenue growth of 1.7% in Q1 2025, slightly up from 1.2% in Q4 2024, indicating resilience in consumption during the Spring Festival [10][11] - The report highlights a divergence in performance within the liquor industry, with high-end liquor and leading real estate liquor brands maintaining stable performance, while some mid-range brands experienced significant declines. The report anticipates a gradual recovery in liquor consumption as economic policies take effect [10][11] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report notes a pressured tone in Q1 results but indicates a month-on-month improvement. The food and beverage index's performance is under scrutiny, with specific attention to the liquor sector's resilience [10][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the broader market, with a 0.5% decline in the index. The report identifies leading stocks and those that lagged behind, emphasizing the need for strategic focus on top-performing companies [10][12] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with specific data on dairy and meat prices indicating fluctuations that could impact the overall cost structure for food and beverage companies [17][23] Liquor Industry News - Notable developments include the pre-sale of Moutai's 2025 Dragon Boat Festival gift box and the launch of new products by Qingdao Beer, reflecting ongoing innovation and market engagement within the liquor sector [41][42] Memorandum - The report includes a memorandum highlighting significant upcoming events, such as the unlocking of restricted shares for Angel Yeast on May 9, which could influence market dynamics [43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company demonstrates steady growth momentum in revenue [6] - Profit growth is driven by product mix upgrades [7] - The quality of financial reports indicates a strong willingness to collect payments [8] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.523 billion yuan (up 7.72%), with net profit attributable to shareholders at 6.648 billion yuan (up 6.15%) [9] - In Q4 2024, revenue was 4.653 billion yuan (down 10.24%), with net profit at 893 million yuan (down 11.32%) [9] - For the year 2024, revenue totaled 36.011 billion yuan (up 12.79%), with net profit at 12.243 billion yuan (up 17.29%) [9] - Q1 2025 product revenue growth: Fenjiu series +8.2%, other series -15.5% [9] - In 2024, mid-to-high-end and other liquor revenues grew by 14.4% and 9.4% respectively [9] Profitability and Margins - Q1 2025 gross margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 78.8% due to product mix enhancement [9] - For 2024, gross margin increased by 0.9 percentage points to 76.2% [9] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve total revenue of 39.497 billion yuan, 43.546 billion yuan, and 48.149 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.7%, 10.3%, and 10.6% [11] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 13.390 billion yuan, 14.810 billion yuan, and 16.500 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.4%, 10.6%, and 11.4% [11] - Current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 19, 17, and 15 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]

Core Insights - The white liquor industry is experiencing intensified structural differentiation and competition, with a focus on self-transformation and finding new opportunities amidst deep adjustments [1] - In 2024, the production volume of white liquor from 989 large-scale enterprises in China is projected to be 4.145 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while sales revenue is expected to reach 796.384 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% [1] - The industry is characterized by strong concentration, with leading brands and regions playing a crucial role in market dynamics [1] Industry Overview - The white liquor market is undergoing a reshuffle, with a clear trend of strong concentration and differentiation, leading to fierce competition among top brands [1][15] - Major brands are innovating their marketing strategies and product offerings to adapt to changing consumer demands and market conditions [15][23] Market Dynamics - In key markets like Henan, Jiangsu, and Shandong, leading brands dominate the sales landscape, with significant market shares held by top players such as Moutai and Wuliangye [4][5][6] - The competitive landscape varies by region, with local brands often struggling against national brands in markets like Henan and Guangdong [4][8][9] Brand Strategies - Wuliangye is focusing on expanding its market presence through innovative product launches and targeted marketing strategies aimed at various consumption scenarios [16] - Moutai is enhancing its brand image through cultural marketing and customer engagement initiatives, aiming to adapt to the evolving consumer landscape [17] - Luzhou Laojiao is implementing a dual-brand strategy to enhance market penetration and consumer experience [18] - Shanxi Fenjiu is emphasizing quality and cultural heritage in its marketing approach to strengthen brand loyalty [19][20] - Yanghe is leveraging cultural events and sponsorships to enhance brand visibility and market share [21] Future Outlook - The white liquor industry is expected to continue evolving, with leading companies focusing on innovation, market expansion, and adapting to consumer preferences [23] - The emphasis on quality, cultural relevance, and consumer engagement will be critical for brands to maintain competitiveness in a rapidly changing market [23]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor market in 2024 faces challenges such as "consumer fatigue," "price inversion," and "high inventory pressure," yet Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) stands out with impressive performance, showcasing strong market competitiveness and resilience amid industry adjustments [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, Shanxi Fenjiu achieved a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.79% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 12.243 billion yuan, growing by 17.29% - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 16.522 billion yuan, up 7.72%, and a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, increasing by 6.15% [1] Product Strategy - The company's product strategy focuses on optimizing product structure through "grasping Qinghua, strengthening the waist, and stabilizing glass Fen," leading to clear product positioning and strong synergy [2] - The flagship product, Glass Fen, maintains a dominant position in the light bottle liquor market, with over 200 million bottles sold annually, over 50% of which are purchased by the post-90s demographic [2] - The Old White Fen product is positioned as a key growth driver in the mid-range liquor market, contributing stable revenue growth [3] - The Qinghua Fen series accounted for over 50% of revenue in 2024, marking significant progress in the company's high-end strategy [3] Global Expansion - In 2024, the number of distributors reached 4,553, with 51 distributors generating over 100 million yuan in sales, supporting both domestic and global market expansion [5] - Sales in Shanxi reached 13.5 billion yuan, up 11.72%, while sales outside Shanxi surged to 22.374 billion yuan, a 13.81% increase, indicating successful transformation into a national liquor giant [6] - The company has established a presence in over 60 countries, with a 35% increase in export revenue in 2024 [7] Brand Development - Shanxi Fenjiu enhances brand value through diverse marketing strategies and cultural promotion, achieving a 24.4% increase in brand value, ranking it among the top in the liquor industry [9] - The launch of Qinghua 26 fills a price gap in the Qinghua series, further strengthening its competitive edge [9] - The company actively engages in digital marketing initiatives to improve efficiency and effectiveness [10] ESG Initiatives - The company integrates ESG principles into its development strategy, focusing on green production, social responsibility, and corporate governance [11][12] - Efforts include optimizing production processes to reduce energy consumption and pollution, as well as participating in rural revitalization initiatives [12] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that Shanxi Fenjiu will continue to release growth potential through optimized product structure, global market expansion, and enhanced brand value [12][13] - The company aims to deepen the high-end process of the Qinghua series and expand its market share in emerging and mature markets [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained at "Buy" [1][6][16] Core Views - The company's revenue performance is in line with expectations, achieving a revenue of 36.01 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.24 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [6] - For Q1 2025, the revenue reached 16.52 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, with a net profit of 6.65 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [6] - The company has a strong dividend payout ratio of 60.4% for 2024, translating to a dividend yield of 3.2% for 2025 [6] - Future profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 13.45 billion yuan, 14.68 billion yuan, and 15.91 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 9.2%, and 8.3% respectively [6] Revenue and Profitability - The revenue from high-end and low-end liquor segments in 2024 was 26.53 billion yuan and 9.34 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 14.3% and 9.4% [7] - In Q1 2025, revenue from Fenjiu and other liquor categories was 16.21 billion yuan and 270 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.2% and a decline of 15.5% respectively [7] - The company is expected to see further growth in mid-tier products, with a significant focus on controlling the production of lower-tier products [7] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Sales cash receipts for 2024 amounted to 36.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, while Q1 2025 saw receipts of 13.79 billion yuan, down 2.9% year-on-year due to the timing of the Spring Festival [8] - As of the end of Q1 2025, contract liabilities stood at 5.8 billion yuan, indicating a historically high level of recognition and positive cash flow from channels [8] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved by 1.34 percentage points to 78.8%, while the net profit margin decreased by 0.58 percentage points to 40.28% due to increased sales expenses [9] - The company maintains a strong return on equity (ROE) forecast, with expected values of 27.6%, 24.2%, and 21.1% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 36.01 billion with a year-on-year growth of 12.8% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.24 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in 2024. The company is entering the second phase of its revitalization plan for Fenjiu in 2025, aiming for steady long-term development [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 36.01 billion (up 12.8% YoY) and a net profit of 12.24 billion (up 17.3% YoY). In Q4 2024, revenue was 4.65 billion (down 10.2% YoY) and net profit was 0.89 billion (down 11.3% YoY). For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.52 billion (up 7.7% YoY) and net profit was 6.65 billion (up 6.2% YoY), aligning with previous expectations [1][4]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is focusing on mid-to-high-end products, with revenue from these segments reaching 26.53 billion and 9.34 billion respectively in 2024, showing growth of 14.4% and 9.4% YoY. The company anticipates that its mid-tier product, Laobai Fen, will be a significant growth driver in the second phase of its strategy [2]. - The company’s revenue from provincial and non-provincial markets in 2024 was 13.50 billion and 22.37 billion respectively, with growth rates of 11.7% and 13.8% YoY. The non-provincial revenue share increased by 0.4 percentage points YoY, indicating ongoing optimization of its national layout [2]. Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross profit margin for 2024 improved by 0.9 percentage points to 76.2%, driven by strong performance in the Qinghua and mid-tier products. In Q1 2025, the gross profit margin further increased by 1.3 percentage points to 78.8% [3]. - The net profit margin for 2024 rose by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0%. However, in Q1 2025, the net profit margin decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 40.2% due to increased sales and management expenses [3]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The company successfully completed the first phase of its revitalization plan and is progressing steadily into the second phase. However, external demand recovery is expected to take time, leading to a downward revision of revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% and 9% respectively. The estimated EPS for 2025 and 2026 is projected at 11.15 and 12.60 respectively [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 256.45, based on a 23x PE ratio for 2025, reflecting the company's potential for national expansion [4].

编者按 A股市场2024年年报和2025年一季报业绩披露已收官。正逢"五一"长假，证券时报记者精选了几大行业，对相关行业业绩和亮点进行了梳理，以飨读 者。 随着白酒上市公司年报及一季报披露，白酒行业在深度调整期的发展脉络逐渐清晰。 证券时报记者根据Wind数据统计，2024年A股白酒上市公司实现营业总收入4422.27亿元，同比增长2.28%；实现归属上市公司股东的净利润1666.31亿元，同 比增长4.32%。 整体来看，白酒行业仍呈现出明显分化局面，头部企业凭借品牌、渠道优势实现逆势增长，而部分区域酒企则面临库存与动销压力，业绩下滑比较明显。 龙头酒企业绩保持稳定增长 在存量竞争背景下，头部酒企通过品牌、渠道和创新巩固优势，业绩保持稳定增长。 从营业总收入来看，贵州茅台以1741.44亿元的营业总收入，排名第一；五粮液的营业总收入为891.75亿元，排名第二；山西汾酒、泸州老窖2024年的营业总 收入超过300亿元；洋河股份、古井贡酒2024年的营业总收入超过200亿元。 从营业总收入同比增长幅度来看，贵州茅台、山西汾酒、古井贡酒、今世缘等多家酒企2024年营业总收入增速不低于10%，而*ST岩石、酒鬼酒 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 36 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.3% [6]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a strong start with a revenue of 16.5 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.65 billion yuan, increasing by 6.2% [6]. - The company is expected to continue its steady growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 39.3 billion yuan in 2025, 43.2 billion yuan in 2026, and 46.9 billion yuan in 2027 [2][8]. Financial Performance Forecast - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 36,010.99 million yuan - 2025E: 39,328.45 million yuan - 2026E: 43,202.18 million yuan - 2027E: 46,878.90 million yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected at 12.79% for 2024, 9.21% for 2025, 9.85% for 2026, and 8.51% for 2027 [2][8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 12,242.88 million yuan - 2025E: 13,104.64 million yuan - 2026E: 14,532.14 million yuan - 2027E: 15,822.83 million yuan - Net profit growth rates are expected to be 17.29% for 2024, 7.04% for 2025, 10.89% for 2026, and 8.88% for 2027 [2][8]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: - Gross margin is projected to improve from 76.20% in 2024 to 78.06% in 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][8]. - The diluted EPS is expected to rise from 10.04 yuan in 2024 to 12.97 yuan in 2027, reflecting strong earnings growth [2][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The company ranks third in the industry by revenue size in 2024, with a strong performance in both domestic and international markets [6]. - The product mix is expected to continue evolving, with a focus on mid-to-high-end liquor products, which are projected to drive growth [6]. - The company is also anticipated to enhance its national presence, particularly in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta [6].