Core Insights - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue of 36.011 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.523 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.72%, with a net profit of 6.648 billion yuan, an increase of 6.15% year-on-year [1] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor categories generated revenues of 26.532 billion yuan and 9.342 billion yuan respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 14.35% and 9.4% [1] - The gross margins for mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor were 84.45% and 53.15%, showing increases of 0.36 and 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Total liquor sales volume reached 220,600 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.20% [1] Market Expansion - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of 13.5 billion yuan from the domestic market and 22.374 billion yuan from the external market, with year-on-year growth of 11.72% and 13.81% respectively [2] - The proportion of revenue from external markets increased to 62.37%, indicating a continued optimization of market layout [2] - The total number of distributors reached 4,553 in 2024, an increase of 613 from 2023, with a significant number of new distributors in external markets [2] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 76.2% and 34% respectively, reflecting increases of 0.9 and 1.31 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 12.172 billion yuan, up 68.47% year-on-year [4] - The proposed cash dividend for 2024 is 36.00 yuan per 10 shares, with a total payout of 7.393 billion yuan, representing 60.39% of net profit attributable to shareholders [4] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve revenues of 39.559 billion yuan, 44.466 billion yuan, and 50.905 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 13.407 billion yuan, 15.076 billion yuan, and 17.470 billion yuan respectively [4]

Group 1 - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 36.00 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 4.39 billion yuan based on the total share capital of 1,219,964,222 shares as of December 31, 2024 [21][22][19] - The company reported a net profit of approximately 10.57 billion yuan for the year 2024, with an ending retained earnings balance of approximately 25.12 billion yuan after dividend distribution [21][22] - The company will not issue bonus shares or increase capital reserves for the year 2024 [22] Group 2 - The company operates in the production and sales of various types of liquor, including Fenjiu, Zhuyeqing, and Xinghuacun liquor, and is recognized as a key player in the Chinese liquor industry [2][3] - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain management system, ensuring the procurement of high-quality raw materials from over 1.4 million acres of planting bases [3][4] - The company employs an integrated marketing model, combining direct sales, e-commerce, and partnerships with regional distributors to enhance its market presence [4] Group 3 - The company has undergone a change in accounting policies in accordance with new regulations issued by the Ministry of Finance, effective from January 1, 2024, which will not significantly impact its financial status [35][36][39] - The company’s first-quarter report for 2025 indicates ongoing operational stability, with detailed financial data to be disclosed [40][56] - The company’s internal control systems have been evaluated and deemed effective, ensuring compliance with relevant regulations [13][16]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu aims to stabilize growth and enhance product structure through strategic adjustments and market segmentation, focusing on maintaining a reasonable growth target rather than merely increasing sales figures [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 12.79% to 36.011 billion yuan and a net profit rise of 17.29% to 12.243 billion yuan [2]. - Revenue from high-end liquor (priced at 130 yuan per liter and above) grew by 14.35% to 26.532 billion yuan, while revenue from other liquor categories (priced below 130 yuan) increased by 9.40% to 9.342 billion yuan [2]. Product Strategy - The company is focusing on the "青花" (Qinghua) series, with plans to complete the replacement of old and new products by the end of Q2 2024, aiming for a seamless transition in the market [3][4]. - The resource allocation strategy for the "四轮驱动" (Four-Wheel Drive) approach distributes resources among different product lines, with a focus on increasing the market presence of "老白汾" (Old Bai Fen) and "青花26" (Qinghua 26) [4][5]. Market Expansion - The company is expanding its dealer network, with the number of provincial dealers increasing from 642 in 2019 to 835 in 2024, and the number of provincial dealers rising from 1,847 to 3,718 in the same period [7]. - The revenue from provincial markets increased by 11.72% to 13.5 billion yuan, while revenue from non-provincial markets grew by 13.81% to 22.374 billion yuan [6][7]. Marketing and Consumer Engagement - Shanxi Fenjiu is implementing a new marketing strategy that includes performance incentives based on both shipment volume and bottle opening rates, alongside targeted consumer promotions [8][9]. - The company is focusing on digital marketing and precise expense management to enhance operational efficiency and market penetration [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 36 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.2 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 17.3% [6]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a strong start with a revenue of 16.5 billion yuan, up 7.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.65 billion yuan, increasing by 6.2% [6]. - The company is expected to continue its steady growth trajectory, with a projected revenue of 39.3 billion yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 9.21% [2][8]. Financial Performance Forecast - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 36,010.99 million yuan - 2025E: 39,328.45 million yuan - 2026E: 43,202.18 million yuan - 2027E: 46,878.90 million yuan - Revenue growth rates are projected at 12.79%, 9.21%, 9.85%, and 8.51% respectively [2][8]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 12,242.88 million yuan - 2025E: 13,104.64 million yuan - 2026E: 14,532.14 million yuan - 2027E: 15,822.83 million yuan - Net profit growth rates are projected at 17.29%, 7.04%, 10.89%, and 8.88% respectively [2][8]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 10.04 yuan - 2025E: 10.74 yuan - 2026E: 11.91 yuan - 2027E: 12.97 yuan [2][8]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 20.34, 19.00, 17.13, and 15.74 for the years 2024A to 2027E respectively [2][8]. Product and Market Dynamics - The company’s product structure is robust, with mid-to-high-end liquor sales reaching 26.5 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [6]. - The company is experiencing a trend of upgrading product structures, particularly in domestic markets, with a revenue of 13.5 billion yuan from domestic sales, up 11.7% [6]. - The company is also expanding its presence in external markets, with a revenue of 22.4 billion yuan from outside the province, reflecting a growth of 13.8% [6]. Dividend Policy - The company announced a total dividend of 7.4 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of 60.4%, which is an increase of 9.3 percentage points from the previous year [6].

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu achieved significant growth in 2024, with revenue reaching 36.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and net profit of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29%, solidifying its position among the top three in the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Performance Resilience - In 2024, despite being in an industry adjustment cycle, the company optimized its product and market structure, resulting in double-digit growth in revenue and net profit [3]. - High-end liquor sales contributed significantly, with revenue from mid-to-high-end products reaching 26.532 billion yuan, a 14.35% increase, accounting for 73.68% of total revenue [3]. - The Qinghua Fen series remains a strategic focus, with the launch of "Qinghua Fenjiu 26·Revival" aimed at expanding market reach [3]. Group 2: Market Expansion - Revenue from markets outside Shanxi reached 22.374 billion yuan, growing by 13.81% [4]. - The number of external distributors increased to 3,718, adding 598 new distributors during the reporting period, supporting the company's national expansion strategy [4]. Group 3: Brand Empowerment - The company emphasizes cultural integration as a key advantage, launching various cultural initiatives and collaborations to engage with consumers [5]. - The "Youngization 1.0 Strategy" will be fully implemented by 2025, aiming to attract younger demographics and reshape the narrative of Chinese liquor [5]. Group 4: Sustainable Development - The company plans to maintain steady revenue growth and integrate ESG principles into its revival strategy, focusing on green, low-carbon, and high-quality development [7]. - The release of the 2024 ESG report highlights the commitment to environmental, social, and governance responsibilities as part of the company's growth strategy [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 36 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit of 12.2 billion yuan, up 17.3% year-on-year [5][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.60 yuan per share for 2024, totaling 7.4 billion yuan, which accounts for 60.4% of the net profit [5][10] - The product structure continues to upgrade, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue reaching 26.5 billion yuan in 2024, a 14% increase year-on-year [9][10] Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financials**: - Revenue: 36 billion yuan, up 12.8% YoY - Net Profit: 12.2 billion yuan, up 17.3% YoY - Gross Margin: 76.2% [5][8][12] - **2025 Projections**: - Expected Revenue: 39.6 billion yuan, up 10.1% YoY - Expected Net Profit: 13.3 billion yuan, up 9.0% YoY [8][12] - **Key Ratios**: - ROE for 2024 is projected at 35.2% - P/E ratio for 2024 is projected at 20.2 [12][14] Market and Product Insights - The company reported stable growth in both domestic and international markets, with domestic revenue reaching 13.5 billion yuan and international revenue at 22.4 billion yuan in 2024 [9][10] - The sales channels showed resilience, with direct sales and e-commerce growing by 20% and 26% respectively in 2024 [9][10] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 7.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 9.3 percentage point increase in the payout ratio compared to the previous year [5][10]

4月29日晚间，我国清香型白酒龙头——山西汾酒（600809）对外披露了2024年财报。公告显 示，报告期内，公司实现营业收入360.11亿元，同比增幅达12.79%；归母净利润为122.43亿元， 较去年同期增长17.29%，两大关键运营指标均保持两位数高增，显著跑赢白酒上市公司平均行业增 速，印证清香型品类扩容红利。 值得一提的是，同日，山西汾酒还披露了2025年一季报。截至今年3月，公司营业收入和归母净利 润分别录得165.23亿元和66.48亿元，同比分别增长7.72%和6.15%，显示出其盈利韧性超预期。 对此，有资深业内人士分析表示，自2017年启动国企改革三年行动以来，山西汾酒通过产品矩阵优 化、引入华润战略投资者、实施激励政策等举措，为全国化扩张储备了战略势能，配套产能扩张与全 链条数智化转型等，最终在白酒深度调整周期中，以汾酒速度实现"三分天下有其一"的战略突破， 重构行业格局。 未来，白酒行业仍存在结构性机会，次高端价格带品牌竞争格局仍然较为分散，全国性品牌和强势区 域品牌具备各自的竞争优势。其中，汾酒的青花系列品牌，在汾酒的品牌势能和清香型的香型差异化 上具备独特的优势，其通过品牌矩阵突 ...

白酒深度调整期，山西汾酒延续了"汾酒速度"，交出了一份逆势上扬的成绩单。 4月3 0日，山西汾酒披露2 0 2 4年年度报告和2 0 2 5年一季度报。财报显示，2 0 2 4年全年汾酒实 现 营 业 收 入 3 6 0 . 11 亿 元 ， 同 比 增 长 1 2 . 7 9% ， 稳 居 行 业 前 三 ； 归 属 于 上 市 公 司 股 东 的 净 利 润 1 2 2 . 4 3亿元，同比增长1 7 . 2 9%。 2 0 2 5年一季度也表现不俗，营业收入1 6 5 . 2 2亿元，同比增长7 . 7 2%，净利润6 6 . 4 8亿元，同比 增长6 . 1 5%。 2 0 2 4年的白酒行业，饱受"产能过剩" "价格倒挂" "库存高压"的压力。当多数酒企承受阵痛之 时，山西汾酒营收与净利润双增长的成绩，颇为不易。 穿越周期的韧性背后，是汾酒通过产品结构、市场等维度的坚实筑基，实现高端化及全国化 布局的进一步突围。随着清香型白酒不断攀高，市场持续扩容，在汾酒的带领下，清香大时 代已全面开启。 高端产品成功卡位 玻汾稳固"霸主地位" 在市场持续消化能力不足，营销刺激效果减弱，渠道库存压力增大，产品动销频 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) with a target price of 285 CNY, while the current price is 202.99 CNY [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 36.01 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.24 billion CNY, up 17.3% year-on-year. The Q4 revenue was 4.65 billion CNY, down 10.2%, and the net profit was 0.89 billion CNY, down 11.3%. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.52 billion CNY, a 7.7% increase, with a net profit of 6.65 billion CNY, up 6.2% [1][3][7]. Financial Summary - **2024 Financial Performance**: Total revenue was 36,011 million CNY with a net profit of 12,243 million CNY. The gross margin improved to 76.2% and the net margin was 34.0% [3][8]. - **2025 Financial Projections**: Expected revenue growth of 8.7% to 39,146 million CNY and net profit growth of 7.6% to 13,169 million CNY. EPS is projected to be 10.79 CNY [3][11]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 20 in 2024 to 15 in 2027, while the P/B ratio is expected to decline from 7.1 to 4.3 over the same period [3][11]. Operational Insights - The company is focusing on maintaining a healthy channel inventory and stable pricing, with a significant increase in the dividend payout ratio from 51% to 60%, enhancing its attractiveness to long-term investors [7][8]. - The growth strategy includes strengthening brand collaboration and expanding the market presence of secondary brands like Zhuyeqing and Xinghuacun, while Fenjiu remains the primary growth driver [7][8]. Market Position - The company has shown resilience in its operational performance, with balanced revenue growth from both domestic and international markets, and a stable cash flow situation with contract liabilities at 5.82 billion CNY [1][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu [6][2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 36.01 billion with a year-on-year growth of 12.8% and a net profit of 12.24 billion, up 17.3% year-on-year for 2024. For Q1 2025, revenue was 16.52 billion, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 6.65 billion, up 6.2% year-on-year. The company emphasizes stability as the main theme for 2025, adjusting the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 to 11.11, 12.31, and 13.52 respectively, corresponding to a PE of 18x [1][5][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 36.01 billion, a 12.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.24 billion, reflecting a 17.3% growth. The Q4 2024 revenue was 4.65 billion, down 10.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.89 billion, down 11.3% year-on-year. For Q1 2025, revenue reached 16.52 billion, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, and net profit was 6.65 billion, up 6.2% year-on-year [1][5][4] Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 76.2%, up 0.9 percentage points year-on-year. The company focused on high-end products, with revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor reaching 26.53 billion, a 14.3% increase year-on-year. The sales expense ratio was 10.4%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points to 34.0% [5][1][4] Market Expansion - The revenue from outside Shanxi province reached 22.37 billion in 2024, a 13.8% increase year-on-year, accounting for 62.4% of total revenue. The company is expanding its market presence in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions [5][1] Pricing and Sales Volume - The average price per ton was 163,000, a 5% increase year-on-year, with total sales volume reaching 221,000 tons, up 7.2% year-on-year. The sales of mid-to-high-end liquor increased by 13.0% year-on-year [5][1] Future Outlook - For 2025, the company aims to maintain stable growth without specifying exact growth targets, focusing on high-quality growth and expanding the consumer base for its clear aroma products [5][1]