Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The food and beverage industry has shown a decline of 1.90% from December 1 to December 5, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.18 percentage points [4][9] - The overall valuation of the food and beverage industry is at a relatively low level, with a PE ratio of 22X, ranking 23rd among Shenwan's primary industries [5][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on consumer-driven strategies and innovation, as highlighted by the recent global dealer conference of Fenjiu [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - From December 1 to December 5, 2025, the food and beverage industry declined by 1.90%, ranking 28th out of 31 sectors, with sub-sectors showing mixed performance [4][9] Valuation Analysis - As of December 5, 2025, the food and beverage industry's PE ratio is 22X, with other liquor at 55X, health products at 36X, and snacks at 35X being the highest valued sub-sectors [5][16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable demand and strong risk resistance, as well as those actively innovating in new products and channels. Key companies to watch include Miaokelando, Andeli, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Yanjinpuzi [7][44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in a challenging industry environment, with a projected net profit of CNY 12.28 billion, CNY 13.13 billion, and CNY 14.42 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of +0.3%, +6.9%, and +9.8% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be CNY 10.07, CNY 10.76, and CNY 11.82 for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.9, 18.6, and 17.0 times [4] - The company has a robust product structure and a healthy national distribution, which has allowed it to outperform the industry [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from Shanxi Fenjiu was CNY 32.17 billion, with a year-on-year increase of +5.5%, while other liquor categories saw a decline of -15.9% [5] - Provincial revenue was CNY 11.01 billion, down -7.5%, while out-of-province revenue reached CNY 21.81 billion, up +12.7% [5] - The company has actively optimized its distributor structure, canceling contracts with 33 distributors and penalizing over 400 for violations [6] Market Position - The company has maintained a competitive edge with its next-high-end Qinghua series, which has shown significant growth due to its unique flavor profile and high consumer loyalty [5] - Despite industry challenges, the profitability of distributors for Shanxi Fenjiu remains strong, supported by a diverse product mix and stable pricing [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Projected operating revenue for 2025 is CNY 37.865 billion, with a year-on-year growth of +5.1% [8] - The gross margin is expected to be 74.5%, and the net margin is projected at 32.4% for 2025 [8] - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline to 28.5% by 2025, reflecting a strategic focus on sustainable growth [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - Short-term price fluctuations do not alter long-term value; new products from Ximai are building a second growth curve [5] - The food and beverage index declined by 1.9%, ranking 26th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 3.2 percentage points [13][15] - Moutai's recent price decline is attributed to increased shipments in Q4 and promotional activities on e-commerce platforms, indicating a temporary supply-demand adjustment rather than a fundamental change in brand strength [5][13] - The white liquor sector is currently at a dual bottom in valuation and expectations, with opportunities for strategic positioning as industry reforms deepen [5][13] Market Performance - The food and beverage sector underperformed the market, with a 1.9% decline, while sub-sectors like processed foods (+1.5%), beer (+1.2%), and soft drinks (+0.4%) showed relative strength [15][17] - Notable individual stock performances included Anji Food, Hai Xin Food, and Xi Wang Food showing gains, while Yantang Dairy, Ximai Food, and Richen Co. experienced declines [15][17] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with whole milk powder auction prices down 15.6% year-on-year, and fresh milk prices down 3.2% year-on-year [18][19] - Pork prices have also seen significant declines, with a year-on-year drop of 24.1% [22][23] Company Focus - Ximai Food's new health-oriented powder products have performed well in initial sales, with plans for nationwide expansion starting in 2026 [6][14] - The company is also launching weight control products aimed at improving gut health and stabilizing blood sugar levels, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the health sector [6][14] Recommended Stocks - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bai Run Co. [7] - Guizhou Moutai is expected to deepen its reform process and focus on sustainable development despite short-term demand pressures [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu is positioned for medium-term growth with a focus on product structure upgrades and national expansion [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected stocks and sectors within the industry [4]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery, with Shanxi Fenjiu focusing on national expansion, youth engagement, and internationalization strategies for 2026. The company is optimizing inventory and enhancing market capacity, which is expected to support growth [2]. - In the beverage sector, companies like Nongfu Spring are planning to strengthen their water and tea product lines while introducing new products. The beer segment is diversifying with new flavors to cater to changing consumer preferences [3]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in consumer staples, with companies like Three Squirrels expanding into a full-category strategy and Mengniu Dairy leading in deep processing innovations [7]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - Shanxi Fenjiu's 2026 marketing strategy focuses on nationalization, youth engagement, and precise consumer service. The company is targeting key markets and optimizing inventory to enhance growth potential [2]. - The white liquor industry is characterized by bottoming out in sales, clearing financial reports, and low expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for quality asset allocation [2]. Beer and Beverage - The beer sector is witnessing the launch of new products like Jin Xing Beer’s winter flavor, reflecting a shift in consumption patterns towards home and outdoor settings [3]. - Nongfu Spring's strategy for 2026 includes strengthening its core water products and expanding its tea offerings, indicating a focus on product diversification and market penetration [3]. Consumer Staples - Three Squirrels is advancing its full-category strategy with the opening of flagship stores, emphasizing community engagement and a wide range of products [7]. - Mengniu Dairy is enhancing its product line with deep processing innovations, which are expected to drive demand and improve the utilization of raw milk [7]. - The frozen food sector is recovering, with companies like Anjuke benefiting from new product launches and channel optimizations, indicating a positive market response [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for quality companies in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the liquor segment [4][9]. Core Insights - The report indicates that major liquor companies have experienced significant revenue declines year-on-year, with high-end liquor prices continuing to drop as the market seeks a balance between volume and price. It anticipates a double-digit decline in sales for Q1 2026, with a potential stabilization in Q2 and a fundamental turnaround in Q3 2026 as inventory clears and demand recovers [4][9]. - The report highlights that if the fundamentals improve as expected, the end of 2026 to 2027 could see a dual boost in valuation and performance for quality companies, marking a strategic allocation period for long-term investors [4][9]. - The report emphasizes a systemic opportunity in mass consumer goods, with a focus on CPI as a core observation indicator. It predicts a gradual improvement in food CPI throughout the year, driven by structural demand improvements and a shift in competitive strategies from price to quality [4][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Perspective on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.90% last week, with liquor down 2.59%, underperforming the market by 2.27 percentage points. The top gainers included companies like Anji Food and Haixin Food, while the biggest losers were ST Yanshan and Yantang Dairy [8]. 2. Market Performance by Sector - The report notes that the average price of Moutai has dropped to 1545 RMB per bottle, a decrease of 25 RMB week-on-week, while the price for Wuliangye remains stable at approximately 825 RMB. The decline in Moutai prices is attributed to increased shipments by distributors to meet annual targets amid weak seasonal demand [10][12]. 3. Industry Matters - The report suggests focusing on the restaurant supply chain, particularly in condiments and frozen foods, with recommendations for companies like Anji Food and Qianhe Flavoring. It anticipates continued improvement in operational performance for these companies as the restaurant sector recovers [11][12]. 4. Valuation Table - As of December 5, 2025, the food and beverage sector has a dynamic PE of 20.19x, with a premium rate of 24%, while the liquor segment has a dynamic PE of 18.87x, with a premium rate of 16% [32].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market has shown a strong rebound in retail prices for the top ten products, ending a period of continuous decline, with the total price for a packaged set of these products reaching 9177 yuan, an increase of 32 yuan from the previous day, indicating a return to an upward trend in the market [1]. Price Trends - The overall market is experiencing a broad increase, with most products stabilizing and recovering in price [1]. - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+ leads the market with an increase of 11 yuan per bottle [1]. - Qinghua Lang continues its strong performance with a price increase of 10 yuan per bottle, reaching a recent high [1]. - The prices of Wuliangye Pu 58th generation and Guojiao 1573 have rebounded by 9 yuan per bottle each [1]. - Other notable price increases include Shuijing Jian Nan Chun up by 7 yuan and Qinghua Fen 20 up by 3 yuan [1]. - The only products showing a decline are Xijiu Junpin, which fell by 10 yuan per bottle, and Gujing Gong Gu 20 and Feitian Moutai, which decreased by 4 yuan per bottle [1][3][4]. Data Sources - The price data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across various regions, including designated distributors, social distributors, mainstream e-commerce platforms, and retail outlets, ensuring an objective and traceable representation of the market [1][4].

01、中流击水：以复兴纲领引领战略转型 众所周知，当前白酒行业正经 在白酒行业深度调整的"中流"之处，当白酒行业在"十四五"的深度调整中探寻方向，汾酒却以一份沉甸 甸的"十五五"战略蓝图，展现了清晰的战略定力与破局智慧。这场大会不仅是对行业现状的深刻洞察， 更是对未来发展路径的系统规划。 2025年末的太原，汾酒以一场主题为"中流击水凯歌还，并肩携手越关山"的全球经销商大会，为行业注 入一股清醒而坚定的力量。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that among 970 ordinary equity funds, only 29 funds experienced a decline in value, including the E Fund Consumer Industry Stock managed by renowned fund manager Xiao Nan, which saw a decrease of 0.14% in return for the first 11 months of 2025 [1][2] - The E Fund Consumer Industry Stock primarily invests in the consumer sector, with a significant portion of its top ten holdings being in the liquor industry, including major stocks like Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye [1] - As of December 4, 2025, the cumulative return of the E Fund Consumer Industry Stock since its inception on August 20, 2010, is 254.2%, with a total asset size of 16.949 billion yuan as of the end of the third quarter of this year [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Fenjiu Global Distributor Conference emphasized the strategic direction and achievements of Fenjiu during the 14th Five-Year Plan, aiming to enhance the company's development and the overall industry structure [1][8]. Group 1: Strategic Focus - The second phase of the Fenjiu Revival Program will focus on "emotional resonance, mutual achievement, and co-creation with consumers," aiming to redefine the understanding of consumers, the market, and the company itself [3]. - The company plans to expand traditional marketing and create benchmarks for consumer satisfaction, targeting national, youthful, and international markets through collaborative efforts in various cultural and market aspects [3][4]. - The year 2026 is highlighted as a transformative year for Fenjiu's business model, emphasizing collaboration with consumers and the integration of traditional and modern elements [3][4]. Group 2: Marketing and Collaboration - Fenjiu will implement a marketing strategy that prioritizes stability and collaboration with distributors, enhancing brand synergy and market expansion [4]. - The company aims to foster a culture of innovation and deepen internal reforms to embrace development opportunities and achieve mutual benefits with partners [4][7]. - The conference recognized outstanding distributors and personnel, reinforcing the commitment to the Fenjiu Revival Program and enhancing brand influence and market competitiveness [6][7]. Group 3: Product Innovation - The launch of the "Qinghua Fenjiu 25·Huashen Ling" product, inspired by cultural elements, represents a blend of traditional craftsmanship and modern aesthetics, showcasing Fenjiu's innovative approach [7]. - The company has made significant achievements in brand building, market expansion, product innovation, and cultural heritage during the 14th Five-Year Plan, establishing itself as a model for high-quality development in the Chinese liquor industry [8].

Industry Dynamics - Li Rui, the Secretary of the Zunyi Municipal Committee, emphasized the focus on "stabilizing liquor and strengthening non-liquor" industries to promote high-quality development in Zunyi, with plans for green and intelligent transformation of the liquor industry and development of emerging sectors like big data and new energy [4] - The modern logistics park project for sauce liquor in Renhuai, with a total investment of approximately 500 million yuan, has officially commenced, aiming to create a comprehensive logistics platform integrating intelligent warehousing and supply chain services [4] - The new national standard for Laobai Gan aromatic liquor has been officially implemented, introducing new terminology, definitions, and production process requirements [5] - In Guangzhou, beer production from January to October 2025 decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with a total output of 805,700 hectoliters [6] Company Dynamics - The Guizhou Moutai Public Welfare Foundation has been awarded a 5A rating by the Guizhou Provincial Civil Affairs Department, having received 367 million yuan in public welfare funds and benefiting over 5 million people through various projects [6] - The official Douyin account "Xiao Moutai" has been launched to share updates on the iMoutai app and engage younger audiences through short videos, enhancing user interaction and brand exposure [6] - Wuliangye has launched a co-branded liquor for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, promoting it through a marketing strategy that connects sports and liquor consumption [6] - The 2025 Fenjiu Global Distributor Conference highlighted the company's focus on transforming its business model and enhancing consumer engagement as part of its revival program [6] - Luzhou Laojiao has been recognized in the "2025 Sichuan Provincial State-owned Enterprises Technology Innovation Typical Cases" for its innovative technology in utilizing brewing waste, achieving over 90% resource utilization [6]