Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the first public REIT in Northeast China, the CITIC Construction Investment Shenyang International Software Park REIT (referred to as Shenyang REIT), has successfully launched its first dividend distribution, exceeding the forecasted levels in its prospectus, demonstrating strong cash flow capabilities of quality underlying assets [1][2] - The Shenyang REIT plans to distribute 60 million yuan, which accounts for approximately 92.13% of the distributable amount of 65.1263 million yuan for 2025, with a notable increase of 14.83% compared to the forecasted value in the prospectus [1] - Industry insiders highlight that the Shenyang REIT's performance is attributed to solid asset operations and prudent project valuations, emphasizing a strategy focused on realistic valuations and the exclusion of uncertainties during the preparation and issuance phases [1] Group 2 - The stable operation of the Shenyang REIT serves as a positive demonstration for revitalizing existing assets in the region, validating the resilience of the value of Shenyang's digital economy industry assets through its robust cash flow distribution [2] - The project illustrates that through standardized public REIT operations, quality assets in Northeast China can effectively connect with capital markets, providing valuable insights for further utilizing financial tools to revitalize infrastructure assets and promote high-quality development of the real economy in Liaoning and the Northeast region [2]

Core Insights - The article highlights three major industry trends observed by CITIC Securities for 2025, focusing on the performance of animated films, the strategy of derivative layouts, and the supply of imported films [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - Animated films have shown remarkable performance, with four out of the top ten domestic box office films being animated, including two that set historical records [1] - The trend of derivative layouts is emerging, where a "short-term box office + long-term derivatives" strategy maximizes the commercial value of intellectual property (IP), allowing film companies to enhance IP value through long-term content planning [1] - The supply of imported films has been abundant, becoming a significant contributor during the summer and New Year periods, with the annual box office for imported films exceeding 10 billion yuan for the first time since 2020 [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Looking ahead to 2026, the institution remains optimistic about the performance of imported films, with anticipated releases of sequels from major IPs such as "Avengers," "Spider-Man," "Toy Story," and "Minions" expected to be introduced domestically [1] - The Spring Festival period is also expected to perform well, with two high-grossing IP sequels, "Fast and Furious 3" and "Boonie Bears 12," already scheduled for release, alongside several other major films from leading companies awaiting announcement [1] Group 3: ETF and Index Information - The Film and Television ETF (516620) tracks the CSI Film and Television Index (930781), which selects listed companies involved in film production, distribution, and screening from the A-share market to reflect the overall performance of securities related to the film industry [1] - The index covers various sectors including content creation, television broadcasting, video media, and cinema, showcasing the comprehensive characteristics of the cultural and entertainment industry [1]

在新会计准则(IFRS 9&17)框架下，OCI账户(以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他综合收益的金融资产)使 保险公司能够有效平滑波动、稳健利润表现，近年占比显著提升。家用电器核心标的具备高分红、低波 动的类债属性，深度契合险资OCI账户的配置逻辑，有望承接长期增量资金，实现估值中枢的稳步提 升。 三、险资流入家用电器行业资金量化测算 横向对比来看，家用电器的配置比例仍显著低于银行、非银金融及公用事业等板块，在"高股息"配置主 线内部具备较大的增配空间。该行预计2026年家电行业有望获得约960亿元险资流入，占100亿以上标的 市值之和的比例约为5.4%。保险扩容对家用电器行业核心资产形成显著的支撑效应。 中信建投主要观点如下： 一、险资入市比例逐步提升，深刻影响近年A股市场风格 近年来，为了支持资本市场良性发展，监管部门连续出台多项政策，明确鼓励保险资金增加权益类资产 的配置，推动保险资金对权益市场进行长期稳定的投资。政策引导下，保险资金在股票市场的配置规模 与比例均呈显著上升趋势。该行预计2026年保险投资入市资金将达到0.53万亿-1.33万亿元，系年内资本 市场的主要增量资金。 二、OCI账户快速扩容， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in silicon and silver prices has intensified profit pressure on photovoltaic (PV) cell and module companies, making the reduction of silver consumption a pressing issue for these firms [1][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Silver has been in a supply-demand gap since 2019, with a long-term expectation of tight balance due to rigid supply and emerging applications [2]. - The supply side is constrained by limited mining output and slow growth in recycling, with over 80% of silver supply coming from mining [2]. - On the demand side, the resilience of photovoltaic demand, along with growth in AI computing and automotive electronics, is expected to influence silver supply-demand balance significantly [2]. Cost Pressure and Alternatives - The cost of silver paste has reached 19.3% of module costs, making it the largest cost component [2]. - Copper is identified as the most suitable alternative to silver, although challenges such as oxidation and diffusion need to be addressed [3][4]. - Current advancements in silver-coated copper and electroplated copper are promising, with silver-coated copper showing rapid progress and lower capital expenditure [4][5]. Technological Developments - Silver-coated copper has been successfully tested in HJT cells, reducing metallization costs significantly [5]. - The TOPCon cell technology is exploring a dual printing and sintering approach to mitigate the risks associated with high-temperature processes [5]. - Electroplated copper technology is advancing, with significant production progress reported by leading companies [6]. Investment Opportunities - The rapid increase in the penetration of silver-coated copper and copper paste is expected to provide substantial profit elasticity for paste and metal powder companies [7]. - Companies like Juhua Materials and Dike Co., which focus on silver paste, are well-positioned to benefit from the transition to copper alternatives [8]. - Metal powder companies such as BQian New Materials are also expected to see significant growth due to their unique offerings in the copper powder market [8].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：地缘冲突缓和，铜价震荡整理 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 镍&不锈钢：印尼能矿部表示将2026年镍矿RKAB配额调整至2.5亿至2.6亿吨，利多靴子落地，后市可继续关注印尼修改HPM公式等政策方向。不过印尼淡 水河谷表示其配额不难满足三大HPAL项目原料需求，企业与政府之间的博弈可能仍会影响后市RKAB政策走向。但向前看，镍市基本面缺乏进一步矛盾， 配额收紧预期前期已price-in，短期方面关注有色板块市场情绪氛围，中长期关注印尼RKAB配额补充变更情况。 操作上，镍不锈钢区间操作。沪镍2603参考区间130000-150000元/吨。SS2603参考区间13500-15500元/吨。 重要声明：本资讯由期货公司研究发展部分析师团队完成，资讯中的信息均来源于公开 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 玉米：中性 1．昨日玉米03主力收盘涨幅0.31%至2283元/吨，全国玉米现货平均现货价格报价2281元/吨，现货价格暂无变化。 2．昨日21日，中储粮吉林分公司拍卖玉米4.6万吨，成交率100%，近日拍卖及采销成交密集，成交率攀升明显，春节备货或将全面启动。但深加工方面利 润普遍同比降低约30%，对补库节奏形成部分压制。 3．据海关最新数据，2025年国内玉米进口量265万吨，同比减少81%。 观点总结：玉米03主力观察2250附近的支撑，上方2330，月内中性偏多。 豆粕：中性 1．持续降雨导致巴西大豆收割放缓，隔夜CBOT大豆反弹。预报显示南锥体区域降雨"北多南少"特征突出，未来一周巴西北部与中西部普遍面临强降雨， 第二周雨势预计边际减弱；巴西南部以及阿根廷核心产区几乎没有降雨，第二周预计有所恢复，关注阿根廷干旱发展的可能性； 2．美盘反弹从成本端给粕价带来边际利好，同时对未来国内大豆供应可能阶段性偏紧的担忧以及储备投放节奏的不确定性亦提供一定支撑。但另一方面， 当前巴西远月船期对盘压榨利润相对可观，暗示若南美到港压力兑现，仍可能通过粕 ...

Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0%, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year [4][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7%, while fixed asset investment is forecasted to decline by 3.8%, particularly in real estate development, which is expected to drop by 17.2% [4][14] - By the end of 2025, China's population is estimated to be 1.40489 billion, with a net decrease of 3.39 million people due to 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths [4][14] Steel Production and Consumption - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while steel output is projected to increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][14] - The total steel exports for 2025 are anticipated to reach 11.9019 million tons, marking a 7.5% increase and setting a historical record [4][14] Market Dynamics - As of January 21, 2025, the national main port iron ore transactions were 812,000 tons, a decrease of 30.3% compared to the previous period, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 76,300 tons, down by 2.2% [4][14] - The capacity utilization rate of iron-making furnaces in 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week-on-week, while the profit rate for steel mills increased by 2.17 percentage points to 39.83% [5][15] Steel Inventory and Demand - The supply of five major steel products was 8.1921 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.62 million tons, while total inventory decreased by 0.6% to 12.4701 million tons [5][15] - The apparent consumption of steel was 8.2612 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [5][15] Specific Steel Products Analysis - Rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 million tons, with total inventory slightly down by 0.04 million tons to 4.3807 million tons, while demand showed a recovery of 0.1528 million tons [6][16] - Hot-rolled steel production increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory decreasing by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 million tons, indicating a cautious market outlook among traders [7][17] Price Strategy - The short-term price range for rebar is expected to be between 3,100 and 3,200 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled steel is projected to range from 3,250 to 3,350 yuan per ton [8][18]

Group 1 - The price of domestic all-latex rubber increased to 15,500 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai 20 mixed rubber rose to 14,800 CNY/ton, up by 50 CNY/ton [4] - As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.273 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, or 1.3% from the previous period [4] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China was 850,000 tons, also up by 1.7%, with specific increases in Qingdao and decreases in Yunnan and Vietnam [4] Group 2 - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU, NR, and Sicom prices [5] - Despite a projected moderate growth in demand for rubber products like tires by 2026, the growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5] - It is anticipated that the peak of the current rebound in prices will not exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5] Group 3 - The PX industry in China saw a decrease in operating load by 1.5 percentage points to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6% [26] - The overall supply of PX is expected to remain ample due to lower maintenance plans compared to previous years and increased operational plans from overseas factories [26] - The demand side is under pressure due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities, leading to a projected loosening of the PX supply-demand balance in the first quarter [26] Group 4 - The PTA industry load decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 76.3%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expectations of reduced supply due to maintenance plans [27] - The overall demand environment is weak, with a continuous decline in operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [27] - The current TA-polyester segment fundamentals still have support, but the sustainability of this support will be tested by expectations of reduced polyester production [27] Group 5 - The EG industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.4%, with the synthetic gas production load rising to 80.2%, indicating high levels compared to historical data [29] - Despite high domestic supply, the demand side is weak, with expectations of inventory accumulation in January and potential peak inventory pressure in February [29] - The macro environment shows signs of warming, but supply pressure remains the dominant factor in the industry [29] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 6.4 percentage points to 68.4%, with expectations of continued supply contraction due to maintenance plans [32] - The demand side is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [32] - Recent tightening of spot supply and rapid expansion of processing fees indicate a strong basis for PR prices [32] Group 7 - The soda ash market saw a slight decline in futures prices, with a recent increase in production leading to increased supply pressure [33] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with recent inventory reductions indicating a weakening purchasing sentiment [33] - The overall market sentiment remains mixed, with macroeconomic factors showing neutral influences [34]

每经AI快讯，中信建投（601066）最新研报指出，未来市场将见证构筑美元潮汐循环的基础之一—— 科技吸引力，不再是美国一枝独秀。届时美元循环持续性将受质疑，黄金仍涨，这是黄金看涨的中期逻 辑。展望短期，2026年美国大概率AI发展持续，全球经历资本开支增扩的短暂繁荣，铜金将完成教科 书般完美接力，2026年金价或弱于2025年，值得期待的是铜。直到新秩序框架明朗，新的强势国际货币 走向台前，届时黄金的"黄金"时代迎来真正句号，这是黄金的长期逻辑。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 中信建投指出，未来市场将见证构筑美元潮汐循环的基础之一——科技吸引力，不再美国一枝独秀。届 时美元循环持续性将受质疑，黄金仍涨，这是黄金看涨的中期逻辑。展望短期，2026年大概率美国AI 持续，全球经历资本开支增扩的短暂繁荣，铜金将完成教科书般完美接力，2026年金价或弱于2025年， 值得期待的是铜。直到新秩序框架明朗，新的强势国际货币走向台前，届时黄金的"黄金"时代迎来真正 句号，这是黄金的长期逻辑。 ...