Economic Overview - In 2025, China's GDP is projected to grow by 5.0%, reaching 140.19 trillion yuan, with industrial added value increasing by 5.9% year-on-year [4][14] - The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7%, while fixed asset investment is forecasted to decline by 3.8%, particularly in real estate development, which is expected to drop by 17.2% [4][14] - By the end of 2025, China's population is estimated to be 1.40489 billion, with a net decrease of 3.39 million people due to 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths [4][14] Steel Production and Consumption - In 2025, China's crude steel production is expected to be 96.081 million tons, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year, while steel output is projected to increase by 3.1% to 144.612 million tons [4][14] - The total steel exports for 2025 are anticipated to reach 11.9019 million tons, marking a 7.5% increase and setting a historical record [4][14] Market Dynamics - As of January 21, 2025, the national main port iron ore transactions were 812,000 tons, a decrease of 30.3% compared to the previous period, while the transaction volume of construction steel by 237 mainstream traders was 76,300 tons, down by 2.2% [4][14] - The capacity utilization rate of iron-making furnaces in 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week-on-week, while the profit rate for steel mills increased by 2.17 percentage points to 39.83% [5][15] Steel Inventory and Demand - The supply of five major steel products was 8.1921 million tons, with a slight week-on-week increase of 0.62 million tons, while total inventory decreased by 0.6% to 12.4701 million tons [5][15] - The apparent consumption of steel was 8.2612 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.7% [5][15] Specific Steel Products Analysis - Rebar production decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1.903 million tons, with total inventory slightly down by 0.04 million tons to 4.3807 million tons, while demand showed a recovery of 0.1528 million tons [6][16] - Hot-rolled steel production increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 million tons, with inventory decreasing by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 million tons, indicating a cautious market outlook among traders [7][17] Price Strategy - The short-term price range for rebar is expected to be between 3,100 and 3,200 yuan per ton, while hot-rolled steel is projected to range from 3,250 to 3,350 yuan per ton [8][18]

Group 1 - The price of domestic all-latex rubber increased to 15,500 CNY/ton, up by 100 CNY/ton from the previous day, while Thai 20 mixed rubber rose to 14,800 CNY/ton, up by 50 CNY/ton [4] - As of January 18, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory reached 1.273 million tons, an increase of 17,000 tons, or 1.3% from the previous period [4] - The total inventory of dark rubber in China was 850,000 tons, also up by 1.7%, with specific increases in Qingdao and decreases in Yunnan and Vietnam [4] Group 2 - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the global market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU, NR, and Sicom prices [5] - Despite a projected moderate growth in demand for rubber products like tires by 2026, the growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5] - It is anticipated that the peak of the current rebound in prices will not exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5] Group 3 - The PX industry in China saw a decrease in operating load by 1.5 percentage points to 89.4%, while the Asian industry load decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 80.6% [26] - The overall supply of PX is expected to remain ample due to lower maintenance plans compared to previous years and increased operational plans from overseas factories [26] - The demand side is under pressure due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities, leading to a projected loosening of the PX supply-demand balance in the first quarter [26] Group 4 - The PTA industry load decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 76.3%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expectations of reduced supply due to maintenance plans [27] - The overall demand environment is weak, with a continuous decline in operating rates in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [27] - The current TA-polyester segment fundamentals still have support, but the sustainability of this support will be tested by expectations of reduced polyester production [27] Group 5 - The EG industry load increased by 0.5 percentage points to 74.4%, with the synthetic gas production load rising to 80.2%, indicating high levels compared to historical data [29] - Despite high domestic supply, the demand side is weak, with expectations of inventory accumulation in January and potential peak inventory pressure in February [29] - The macro environment shows signs of warming, but supply pressure remains the dominant factor in the industry [29] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 6.4 percentage points to 68.4%, with expectations of continued supply contraction due to maintenance plans [32] - The demand side is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery potential in January and February [32] - Recent tightening of spot supply and rapid expansion of processing fees indicate a strong basis for PR prices [32] Group 7 - The soda ash market saw a slight decline in futures prices, with a recent increase in production leading to increased supply pressure [33] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with recent inventory reductions indicating a weakening purchasing sentiment [33] - The overall market sentiment remains mixed, with macroeconomic factors showing neutral influences [34]

每经AI快讯，中信建投（601066）最新研报指出，未来市场将见证构筑美元潮汐循环的基础之一—— 科技吸引力，不再是美国一枝独秀。届时美元循环持续性将受质疑，黄金仍涨，这是黄金看涨的中期逻 辑。展望短期，2026年美国大概率AI发展持续，全球经历资本开支增扩的短暂繁荣，铜金将完成教科 书般完美接力，2026年金价或弱于2025年，值得期待的是铜。直到新秩序框架明朗，新的强势国际货币 走向台前，届时黄金的"黄金"时代迎来真正句号，这是黄金的长期逻辑。 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 中信建投指出，未来市场将见证构筑美元潮汐循环的基础之一——科技吸引力，不再美国一枝独秀。届 时美元循环持续性将受质疑，黄金仍涨，这是黄金看涨的中期逻辑。展望短期，2026年大概率美国AI 持续，全球经历资本开支增扩的短暂繁荣，铜金将完成教科书般完美接力，2026年金价或弱于2025年， 值得期待的是铜。直到新秩序框架明朗，新的强势国际货币走向台前，届时黄金的"黄金"时代迎来真正 句号，这是黄金的长期逻辑。 ...

本公司董事会及董事保证基金2025年第4季度报告所载资料不存在虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏， 并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 中信建投基金管理有限公司旗下： 中信建投景和中短债债券型证券投资基金 中信建投稳利混合型证券投资基金 中信建投睿信灵活配置混合型证券投资基金 中信建投凤凰货币市场基金 中信建投聚利混合型证券投资基金 中信建投添鑫宝货币市场基金 中信建投医改灵活配置混合型证券投资基金 中信建投睿溢混合型证券投资基金 中信建投稳祥债券型证券投资基金 中信建投行业轮换混合型证券投资基金 中信建投策略精选混合型证券投资基金 中信建投价值甄选混合型证券投资基金 中信建投稳悦一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金 中信建投中证500指数增强型证券投资基金 中信建投稳丰63个月定期开放债券型证券投资基金 中信建投医药健康混合型证券投资基金 中信建投智信物联网灵活配置混合型证券投资基金 中信建投稳裕定期开放债券型证券投资基金 中信建投睿利灵活配置混合型发起式证券投资基金 中信建投智享生活混合型证券投资基金 中信建投稳泰一年定期开放债券型发起式证券投资基金 中信建投量化进取6个月持有期混合型证券 ...

中信建投研报指出，近期美元兑人民币汇率同样持续走高，鉴于结汇意愿短期仍较强，且每年年初都是 人民币升值的主要时间窗口，不排除春节前人民币继续冲高，释放升值压力。美债下跌、人民币走强的 组合，对美债目前持仓而言会是不小的压力，但进入到3月份之后，美债利率和人民币汇率可能出现同 时筑顶的情况，届时将提供更为理想的买点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent rise in US Treasury yields is attributed to a combination of factors including improved fundamental expectations, impacts from Trump’s policies, erosion of Federal Reserve independence, seasonal weaknesses, and the influence of Japanese bonds. The negative sentiment has likely peaked, making it difficult for further bearish pressures to emerge [1][24]. Background - The Federal Reserve has paused interest rate cuts and entered an observation phase [25]. - Market narratives have shifted towards recovery and inflation, leading to a surge in commodity prices [25]. - Trump has introduced extreme policies affecting geopolitics (Venezuela, Greenland), economics (MBS purchases, credit card rate caps), and the Federal Reserve (criminal investigation into Powell) [25][29]. - Weakness in Japanese bonds has spilled over, negatively impacting developed market bonds [25][32]. - Seasonal trends at the beginning of the year typically favor equities over bonds [25][35]. Market Dynamics - Since December, US Treasury yields have been on an upward trend, with the 10-year yield rising approximately 30 basis points to over 4.3% [26]. - The pause in interest rate cuts has led to a market where bullish expectations have been exhausted, resulting in rising yields [26]. - The market is currently focused on recovery and inflation, with expectations for a significant economic rebound by 2026, despite recent mixed employment data [27]. - Extreme commodity price movements have contributed to inflationary pressures, further complicating the bond market outlook [27]. Political Influences - Trump's aggressive policy interventions have raised concerns about the credibility of US debt, reminiscent of the "tariff liberation day" impact seen previously [29][31]. - His actions include geopolitical maneuvers and economic policies that could lead to overheating and loss of Federal Reserve independence, which may deter bond investors [31]. Japanese Bond Influence - The recent rise in Japanese bond yields has negatively affected global bond markets, including US Treasuries, with significant daily increases observed [32]. Seasonal Trends - Historical patterns indicate that the stock market tends to perform well during the holiday season, while bonds often face pressure during this period [35]. Future Outlook - The outlook for US Treasuries remains optimistic, with potential buying opportunities expected after the release of dual pressures on interest and exchange rates [38]. - In the first quarter, US Treasuries may continue to face pressure due to economic data and interest rate expectations, but a rebound is anticipated [39]. - Over the year, there is significant potential for yields to decline, with expectations for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [41]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year may lead to a strengthening of the Renminbi, which could create favorable conditions for domestic institutions to increase their holdings in US Treasuries [43].

2022年、2023年、2024年，燕东微实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润分别为4.62亿元、4.52亿元、-1.78亿 元；实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润分别为3.65亿元、2.92亿元、-2.88亿元。 中国经济网北京1月21日讯 燕东微(688172.SH)昨晚发布2025年年度业绩预告显示，经财务部门初步测算， 预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润将出现亏损，金额预计为-42,500万元至-34,000万元；预计 2025年年度实现归属于母公司所有者扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为-110,000万元至-88,000万元。 燕东微发行费用总额为19,693.29万元，其中中信建投证券股份有限公司获得保荐及承销费用18,200.77万 元。 保荐机构依法设立的另类投资子公司中信建投投资有限公司本次跟投获配股票的限售期为24个月，限售期 自本次公开发行的股票在上海证券交易所上市之日起开始计算，对应的股份数量为4,549,590股，占发行后总股 本的0.38%。 燕东微2025年8月2日发布向特定对象发行A股股票上市公告书显示，2025年7月18日，保荐人（主承销商） 中信建投证券将 ...

1月21日，瑞可达涨5.01%，截至发稿，报91.36元/股，成交7.76亿元，换手率4.22%，总市值187.90亿 元。 数据显示，中信建投基金旗下1只基金重仓瑞可达。中信建投致远混合A（019322）三季度持有股数2.2 万股，占基金净值比例为1.47%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约9.59万元。 资料显示，苏州瑞可达连接系统股份有限公司位于江苏省苏州市吴中区吴淞江科技产业园淞葭路998 号，成立日期2006年1月11日，上市日期2021年7月22日，公司主营业务涉及专业从事连接器产品的研 发、生产、销售和服务的高新技术企业。主营业务收入构成为：新能源连接器产品91.47%，通信连接 器产品3.96%，其他连接器产品3.01%，其他(补充)1.57%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 截至发稿，艾翀累计任职时间8年90天，现任基金资产总规模3.12亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 111.53%， 任职期间最差基金回报-23.39%。 杨志武累计任职时间3年50天，现任基金资产总规模4.19亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报61.34%， 任职期 间最差基金回报8.65%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the AI sector, with the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index rising by 2.68% and significant gains in individual stocks such as Lanke Technology and Zhongke Shuguang [1] - The AI Artificial Intelligence ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past week, totaling 802 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 318 million yuan [1] - The storage chip sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by rising prices and increased demand due to AI, with companies like SanDisk and Seagate receiving target price upgrades from Citigroup [2] Group 2 - CITIC Securities believes that regional friction provides a window for domestic semiconductor alternatives, with companies like Huawei and Cambricon rapidly improving their chip performance [2] - The CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index includes 50 companies involved in providing resources, technology, and application support for AI, with the top ten stocks accounting for 58.08% of the index [2] - The AI Artificial Intelligence ETF closely tracks the CSI Artificial Intelligence Theme Index, reflecting the overall performance of AI-related listed companies [2]