Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [10]. Core Insights - The current profitability of the coal industry is better than that before the supply-side reform in 2016, but coking coal profitability is lower than thermal coal, indicating a stronger necessity for reform [7][8]. - The "anti-involution" measures in the coal industry are expected to primarily involve production limits and capacity exits, which could raise the price baseline in a favorable demand environment. However, the current demand pressure is greater than in 2016 [6][7]. - Short-term price elasticity may be limited due to high inventory and suppressed demand, but unexpected demand improvements could lead to price rebounds [6][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 1.67%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.13 percentage points, ranking 11th out of 32 industries [21]. - As of July 4, the market price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 623 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 3 RMB/ton [21]. Thermal Coal Analysis - Daily coal consumption in 25 provinces reached 573.3 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.3% [22]. - The inventory of power plants was 125.22 million tons, with a usable days count of 21.8 days, a decrease of 0.4 days week-on-week [22]. Coking Coal Analysis - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was stable at 1230 RMB/ton as of July 4 [21]. - Coking coal inventory increased by 0.55% week-on-week, indicating a need to monitor supply recovery and seasonal demand [22][53]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include long-term stable profit leaders such as China Coal Energy, China Shenhua Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [8]. - Growth-oriented companies include Electric Power Investment and New Hope Liuhe, while flexible growth stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining and Huayang Co [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [10][11] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a short-term supply-demand balance and a long-term gap still present [10] - The trend of coal prices establishing a bottom and moving to a new platform is expected to continue, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE), and dividends from quality coal companies [10][11] - The coal sector is viewed as undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a public fund allocation that is currently underweight in coal [10][11] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 5, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 616 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 2 CNY/ton [28] - The price for thermal coal from Shaanxi Yulin (Q6000) is 600 CNY/ton, up 5.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [28] - The international thermal coal price at Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 64.8 USD/ton, down 0.3 USD/ton week-on-week [28] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 94%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points week-on-week [46] - The capacity utilization rate for sample coking coal mines is 83.82%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [46] - Coastal provinces' daily coal consumption increased by 18.80 thousand tons/day (+9.90%) while inland provinces' daily consumption decreased by 0.60 thousand tons/day (-0.16%) [47] Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and robust performance companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [11] - Consider companies with significant rebound potential like Yanzhou Coal, Electric Power Energy, and Guanghui Energy [11] - Pay attention to high-quality metallurgical coal companies such as Huabei Mining and Pingmei Shenma [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates high electricity coal demand due to less rainfall and higher temperatures in summer 2025, leading to a continued reduction in coal inventory [4] - The average temperature in major coastal cities from July 1 to July 5, 2025, was 30.2°C, which is 2.7°C higher year-on-year, indicating a significant increase in electricity consumption [4][30] - The report suggests that the coal supply-demand balance has begun to rebalance, with coal prices at historical lows, and recommends focusing on companies with high long-term contract coal ratios [4] Summary by Sections Section 1: Coal Demand and Supply - The report highlights that summer 2025 is expected to see high electricity coal demand due to elevated temperatures and reduced rainfall, particularly in the Yangtze River basin [4][19] - The average temperature for the first half of 2025 was slightly higher than in 2024, with significant increases noted in central and eastern China [8][19] - The report predicts that the reduction in coal inventory will exceed expectations due to weak hydropower output from reduced rainfall [4][30] Section 2: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading coal companies such as China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy, which have a high proportion of long-term contracts and flexible pricing [4] - It also suggests paying attention to Shaanxi Coal and Yanzhou Coal Mining [4] Section 3: Temperature and Rainfall Analysis - The report indicates that the first half of 2025 experienced slightly less rainfall compared to the previous year, with most regions showing normal or reduced precipitation levels [13][19] - The forecast for summer 2025 suggests a significant overlap of high-temperature and low-rainfall areas, particularly in southern China, which may exacerbate drought conditions [19][27] Section 4: Inventory Trends - The report notes that coal inventory at ports has been continuously decreasing, driven by high daily consumption at power plants during the summer peak [4][30] - The report emphasizes that the ongoing high temperatures and increased electricity demand will support the trend of coal inventory reduction [4][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key coal companies including China Qinfa, China Coal Energy, and AnYuan Coal Industry [3][6]. Core Insights - The global coal production is expected to reach a historical high of 924.2 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%. The Asia-Pacific region continues to expand production, with India and Indonesia increasing output by 7% and 8% respectively [7]. - Global coal demand is projected to grow to 165.06 exajoules (EJ) in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1%. However, demand in Europe is declining rapidly, with a decrease of 7% [7]. - The report highlights the stability of coal prices, with Newcastle port coal prices at $110.85 per ton, up 4.35 dollars per ton (+4.08%) from the previous week [34]. Summary by Sections Coal Mining - The report indicates that coal prices at European ARA ports have risen to $107.25 per ton, an increase of 3.90 dollars per ton (+3.77%) [34]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal production and demand trends, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which is driving growth [7]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and the turnaround story of China Qinfa. Other notable mentions are Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yancoal Energy, which show potential for growth [3][6]. - The report also suggests keeping an eye on AnYuan Coal Industry, which is undergoing significant changes in its shareholder structure and asset swaps [3]. Market Trends - The report notes that global coal trade volume is expected to reach 35.99 EJ in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. Indonesia remains the largest coal exporter, accounting for 29.8% of total exports [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of coal price movements, indicating a stable trend in shipping coal prices [30].

2025 年 7 月 5 日 行业研究 "反内卷"叠加旺季来临，煤价板块底部或已出现 ——煤炭开采行业周报（2025.6.30~2025.7.6） 要点 "反内卷"叠加旺季来临，煤价板块底部或已出现。（1）7 月 1 日，中共中央 总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席、中央财经委员会主任习近平主持召开中央 财经委员会第六次会议，会议提出，要依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导 企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出；（2）本周 28 个主要城市平均气 温为 30.56 ℃，已进入季节性高温区间，夏季用煤旺季已经来临；（3）在基本 面、事件共同驱动下，近期焦煤期货价格、煤炭板块均止跌回升。 本周港口煤价小幅反弹，海外天然气价格回落。（1）本周（6.30-7.4）秦皇岛 港口动力煤平仓价（5500 大卡周度平均值）为 621 元/吨，环比+5 元/吨 （+0.88%）；（2）陕西榆林动力混煤坑口价格（5800 大卡）周度平均值为 475 元/吨，环比+1 元/吨（+0.21%）；（3）澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港动力煤 FOB 价格 （5500 大卡周度平均值）为 65 美元/吨，环比-1.89%；（4）欧洲天然气期货 结算价（D ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed a mixed performance with banking, liquor, semiconductor, and logistics sectors rising, while non-ferrous metals and chemical pharmaceuticals sectors weakened [1] - BYD's stock price fell over 1% [1] Sector Performance Banking Sector - Major banks like China Pacific Insurance, Ping An Insurance, and China Life Insurance reported market capitalizations of 382.98 billion, 357.30 billion, and 1,030.15 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 9.81 million, 36.96 million, and 7.85 million [3] Liquor Industry - Key players such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Wuliangye had market capitalizations of 1,786.59 billion, 214.35 billion, and 467.31 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 40.87 million, 10.51 million, and 20.49 million [3] Semiconductor Sector - Companies like Northern Huachuang, Cambricon Technologies, and Haiguang Information had market capitalizations of 241.84 billion, 229.03 billion, and 315.09 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 24.36 million, 31.12 million, and 15.15 million [3] Automotive Sector - BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway had market capitalizations of 1,818.73 billion, 186.84 billion, and 278.88 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 34.54 million, 4.39 million, and 5.94 million [3] Oil Industry - China Petroleum, Sinopec, and COSCO Shipping had market capitalizations of 239.78 billion, 688.67 billion, and 1,573.98 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 8.63 million, 6.43 million, and 7.64 million [3] Coal Industry - Major companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry had market capitalizations of 187.79 billion and 815.60 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 12.39 million and 6.45 million [3] Power Industry - Key players such as Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power had market capitalizations of 360.33 billion and 737.96 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 20.49 million and 8.29 million [4] Food and Beverage Sector - Companies like Citic Securities, Guotai Junan, and Haitian Flavoring had market capitalizations of 409.94 billion, 340.96 billion, and 226.93 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 28.30 million, 3.94 million, and 16.84 million [4] Consumer Electronics - Industrial Fulian, Luxshare Precision, and Gree Electric Appliances had market capitalizations of 472.85 billion, 255.90 billion, and 242.55 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 30.57 million, 77.50 million, and 25.48 million [4] Chemical Products - Companies like Wanhua Chemical and SF Holding had market capitalizations of 239.20 billion and 271.34 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 12.28 million and 8.32 million [4] Construction and Engineering - China State Construction and Zijin Mining had market capitalizations of 532.88 billion and 166.95 billion respectively, with trading volumes of 27.26 million and 8.53 million [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Insights - The company experienced a year-on-year revenue decline of 21.1% in Q1 2025, primarily due to decreases in coal sales volume and prices, as well as declines in electricity sales volume and prices [4]. - The company has completed the acquisition of Hangjin Energy, which adds significant coal reserves and production capacity, enhancing its integrated competitive advantage and long-term profitability [5][6]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a projected dividend yield of 5.2% for 2024, continuing its trend of high returns to investors since 2017 [6]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company reported a coal production of 82.5 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.1% year-on-year, while coal sales volume fell by 15.3% to 99.3 million tons [4]. - The company forecasts net profits of 50.04 billion, 50.28 billion, and 50.51 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 16.5, 16.4, and 16.3 [7][8]. - The main revenue for 2025 is projected at 321.38 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 5.0% from the previous year [10]. Cost and Expense Analysis - The sales expense ratio for Q1 2025 was 0.19%, a year-on-year increase of 0.07 percentage points, while the management expense ratio was 4.22%, up 1.14 percentage points year-on-year [5]. - The financial expense ratio increased to 0.23%, marking a year-on-year rise of 0.20 percentage points [5]. Asset and Resource Development - The acquisition of assets is expected to significantly enhance the company's operational efficiency and sales effectiveness, particularly in the eastern Mongolia region [5]. - The Tarang Coal Mine is projected to reach an annual production capacity of 10 million tons by 2029, which will substantially boost revenue and profitability [5].

富时中国A50指数连续 金十图示：2025年07月03日（周四）富时中国A50指数成分股今日收盘行情一览：证券、消费电子、家电等板块收高，石油、煤 炭等板块收低，银行、保险等板块涨跌不一 -0.01(-0.18%) +0.06(+0.71%) +0.03(+0.71%) 保险 中国太保 中国平安 12,000 中国人保 电机 3825.38亿市值 3573.96亿市值 10161.31亿市值 5.06亿成交额 18.17亿成交额 6.14亿成交额 55.80 37.15 8.65 +0.03(+0.08%) -0.01(-0.02%) -0.04(-0.46%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 五粮液 山内对酒 17782.74亿市值 2142.50亿市值 4643.18亿市值 34.57亿成交额 10.02亿成交额 14.64亿成交额 1415.60 175.62 119.62 +6.00(+0.43%) 0.00(0.00%) +0.44(+0.37%) 术学体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2368.09亿市值 2289.63亿市值 3146.22亿市值 13.25亿成交额 21.74亿成交额 12. ...

Market Overview - The FTSE China A50 Index components showed mixed performance with sectors like home appliances, liquor, and non-ferrous metals rising, while sectors such as securities, consumer electronics, and logistics declined [1]. Sector Performance Home Appliances - Gree Electric Appliances had a market capitalization of 259.96 billion, with a trading volume of 25.10 billion and an increase of 0.96 (+2.11%) [3]. - Haier Smart Home reported a market cap of 240.01 billion, with a trading volume of 19.79 billion and an increase of 0.82 (+3.31%) [3]. Liquor Industry - Kweichow Moutai had a market capitalization of 1,770.74 billion, with a trading volume of 36.89 billion and an increase of 4.50 (+0.32%) [3]. - Wuliangye Yibin reported a market cap of 214.25 billion, with a trading volume of 11.55 billion and an increase of 1.20 (+0.69%) [3]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The sector showed positive performance, contributing to the overall rise in the index [1]. Securities - CITIC Securities had a market capitalization of 404.30 billion, with a trading volume of 10.59 billion and a decrease of 0.11 (-0.40%) [4]. - Guotai Junan Securities reported a market cap of 338.49 billion, with a trading volume of 15.74 billion and a decrease of 0.07 (-0.36%) [4]. Consumer Electronics - Industrial Fulian had a market cap of 420.21 billion, with a trading volume of 24.20 billion and a decrease of 0.24 (-1.12%) [4]. - Luxshare Precision reported a market cap of 245.97 billion, with a trading volume of 17.15 billion and a decrease of 0.79 (-2.28%) [4]. Logistics - SF Holding had a market capitalization of 272.79 billion, with a trading volume of 17.11 billion and a decrease of 1.51 (-0.67%) [4]. Energy Sector - China Shenhua Energy had a market cap of 190.41 billion, with a trading volume of 8.45 billion and an increase of 0.60 (+1.47%) [3]. - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation reported a market cap of 1,573.98 billion, with a trading volume of 6.26 billion and a decrease of 0.04 (-0.46%) [3].

Group 1 - The Cathay Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index Fund (QDII) C has experienced a decline of 0.07% on July 1, with a latest net value of 1.13 yuan, marking a continuous drop for five trading days and a cumulative decline of 1.8% over the period [1] - The fund was established on January 1, 2025, with an initial scale of 0.06 billion yuan and has achieved a cumulative return of 13.34% since its inception [1] Group 2 - Current fund manager Zhang Jing holds a bachelor's degree in finance from the University of International Business and Economics and an MBA from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, with extensive international experience in asset management [2] - The other fund manager, Deng Yakun, has a master's degree in computational finance from Carnegie Mellon University and has been with Cathay Securities since March 2021, focusing on quantitative investment [2] Group 3 - As of March 31, 2025, the top ten holdings of the Cathay Securities CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment Index Fund (QDII) C account for a total of 44.28%, with significant positions in COSCO Shipping Holdings (9.76%), Yancoal Australia (5.88%), and Orient Overseas International (3.94%) among others [3]