证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 桐昆股份(601233.SH) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 买入 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com [刘奕麟 Table_OtherReport] 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 公司盈利显著改善，看好涤丝龙头业绩释放弹性 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 30 日 ➢ 行业供需格局改善，公司业绩显著提升。油价端，2024 年国际油价中 高位震荡运行，上半年油价呈现冲高后回落企稳态势；下半年受全球宏 观经济形势转弱、地缘担忧情绪放缓影响，国际油价震 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongkun Co., Ltd. is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant improvement in the company's profitability, with a focus on the resilience of the polyester filament industry and the expected performance release of the leading company [1][6] - The supply-demand dynamics in the industry are improving, leading to a notable enhancement in the company's performance [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the optimization of the supply structure and the increase in industry concentration [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 101.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.20 billion yuan, up 50.80% year-on-year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 19.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.01%, but a net profit of 611 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.36% [2] - The report forecasts the company's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 2.28 billion, 2.99 billion, and 3.70 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 89.5%, 31.7%, and 23.5% [6] Industry Analysis - The report notes that the average Brent crude oil price for 2024 is expected to be 79.86 USD/barrel, a decrease of 2.31 USD/barrel from 2023, impacting raw material costs [3] - The polyester filament industry is projected to see a consumption increase of 8.7% in 2024, with a total apparent consumption of 42 million tons [3] - The report anticipates the elimination of 2-2.5 million tons of outdated capacity in the polyester filament industry during 2024-2025, which may lead to a negative growth in effective capacity [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 12.45 [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a Q1 revenue of RMB 19.42 billion, a decrease of 8% quarter-on-quarter and 23% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 610 million, an increase of 5% quarter-on-quarter and 213% year-on-year [1]. - The polyester chain is expected to recover due to a slowdown in industry capacity growth and a potential improvement in domestic demand [1][3]. - The report highlights that the main raw material prices have decreased, which has helped improve the company's gross margin [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1, the company achieved a gross margin of 7.7%, up 1% year-on-year and 4.6 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company’s main products, POY, FDY, and DTY, had sales volumes of 1.81 million tons, 450,000 tons, and 240,000 tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7%, +8%, and +4% [2]. Industry Outlook - The polyester industry is anticipated to improve as domestic demand recovers and textile exports increase, alongside a more favorable supply structure due to reduced capacity growth [3]. - New projects are progressing as planned, with significant investments in expanding the polyester and fine chemical industry chain [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, estimating net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 at RMB 2 billion, RMB 2.4 billion, and RMB 2.83 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.83, RMB 0.99, and RMB 1.18 [4][10]. - The company is valued at a PE ratio of 15x for 2025, based on its high proportion of polyester business [4].

石油石化/炼化及贸易 桐昆股份（601233.SH） Q1 业绩同比小幅增长，静待长丝行业景气回升 2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 10.56 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 16.44/9.63 | | 总市值(亿元) | 253.94 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 253.01 | | 总股本(亿股) | 24.05 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 23.96 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 68.41 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 桐昆股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年业绩同比增长，看好公司盈 利弹性与长期价值—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.4.28 《Q3 业绩承压，看好长丝盈利逐步修 复—公司信息更新报告》-2024.10.31 《2024H1 业绩同比大幅增长，看好长 丝盈利继续修复—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.29 ——公司信息更新报告 | 金益腾（分析师） | 龚 ...

2025 年 04 月 30 日 桐昆股份 (601233) ——业绩符合预期，长丝和炼化业绩均有提升 上 市 公 司 石油石化 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 29 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 10.56 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 16.44/9.63 | | 市净率 | 0.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.41 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 25,301 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,286.65/9,849.80 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 15.45 | | 资产负债率% | 65.88 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,405/2,396 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-29 05-29 06-29 07-29 08-29 09-29 10-29 11-29 12-29 0 ...

石油石化/炼化及贸易 桐昆股份（601233.SH） Q1 业绩同比小幅增长，静待长丝行业景气回升 2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/4/29 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 10.56 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 16.44/9.63 | | 总市值(亿元) | 253.94 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 253.01 | | 总股本(亿股) | 24.05 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 23.96 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 68.41 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 桐昆股份 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2024 年业绩同比增长，看好公司盈 利弹性与长期价值—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.4.28 《Q3 业绩承压，看好长丝盈利逐步修 复—公司信息更新报告》-2024.10.31 《2024H1 业绩同比大幅增长，看好长 丝盈利继续修复—公司信息更新报 告》-2024.8.29 ——公司信息更新报告 | 金益腾（分析师） | 龚 ...

Group 1: Fixed Income Market - The recent volatility in the US Treasury market is largely attributed to the upcoming June maturity, which may be overestimated in terms of its impact on financial markets [2] - In the short term, the supply pressure from maturing US Treasuries is expected to be limited, with a more significant focus on the debt ceiling adjustments anticipated in Q3 [2] - Long-term demand for US Treasuries may face a downward trend, with potential alternatives including European and Japanese bonds, as well as gold [2] Group 2: Technology Sector - The report discusses India's potential as the next manufacturing hub for Apple, highlighting the competitive tariff advantages for Indian exports compared to China [4] - Apple theoretically has the capacity to produce the required number of iPhones in India, but initial production will still rely on Chinese exports due to current limitations [4] - The localization of components in India is still in its early stages, with significant reliance on supply chains from other Asian countries for critical parts [4] Group 3: Energy and New Energy - The lithium battery production forecast for May shows a slight decline in overall production, primarily due to the cancellation of mandatory storage policies and the impact of US tariffs on exports [5] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the lithium battery industry remains positive, driven by new vehicle models and technologies [5] - Recent power outages in Spain, Portugal, and southern France have underscored the need for investment in grid upgrades and DC grid technology, presenting opportunities for Chinese power equipment companies [6] Group 4: Media and Publishing - Phoenix Media reported a Q1 2025 revenue of 3.226 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year decline, but a significant increase in net profit due to continued tax incentives [7] - The company maintains a stable core business and is rated as a "buy" based on its solid performance and favorable tax policies [7] Group 5: Financial Sector - The report indicates that the China Construction Bank's Q1 2025 net profit and revenue showed slight year-over-year changes, with a focus on asset quality and credit expansion [9] - The bank's diversified income sources and stable operations support a "buy" rating [9] Group 6: Consumer Goods - The report highlights the strong performance of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, with Q1 revenues showing a significant year-over-year increase, driven by stable oil and gas production [20] - The company is expected to maintain a "buy" rating due to its robust operational performance and project advancements [20] Group 7: Real Estate - The report notes that China Petroleum's Q1 2025 revenue and net profit exceeded expectations, attributed to increased natural gas production and sales [34] - The company is rated as "increase" based on its strong performance and potential for further growth in the natural gas sector [34]

股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-033 桐昆集团股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度主要经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担法律责任。 桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交易 所《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号行业信息披露：第 十三号——化工》《关于做好主板上市公司 2025 年第一季度报告披露 工作的重要提醒》要求，现将 2025 年一季度主要经营数据披露如下： 二、主要产品价格变动情况 | 主要产品 | 2025 年 1-3 月不含 | 2024 年 1-3 月不含税 | 变动比率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 税售价（元/吨） | 售价（元/吨） | | | POY | 6,372.60 | 6,819.37 | -6.55% | | FDY | 6,783.23 | 7,711.20 | -12.03% | | DTY | 7,956.83 | 8,406.30 | -5.35% | | PTA | 4,366.32 ...

2、报告的内容和格式符合中国证监会和上海证券交易所的各项 规定，所包含的信息能从各个方面真实反映公司 2025 年第一季度的 经营管理状况和财务状况。 3、在 2025 年第一季度报告上会审议前，没有发现参与报告编制 和审议的人员有违反保密规定的行为。 股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-032 桐昆集团股份有限公司 第九届监事会第十三次会议决议公告 本公司监事会及全体监事保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担法律责任。 桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"桐昆股份"或"公司"）第 九届监事会第十三次会议通知于 2025 年 4 月 18 日通过书面或电子邮 件、电话通知等方式发出，会议于 2025 年 4 月 28 日在桐昆股份总部 会议室以现场结合通讯表决的方式召开。会议应到监事 5 名，实到监 事 5 名。会议由监事会主席邱中南先生主持，本次会议的召集及召开 符合《中华人民共和国公司法》《公司章程》及有关法律、法规的规 定。经过有效表决，会议一致通过如下决议： 一、以 5 票赞成、0 票反对、0 票弃权，一致通过了《关于 202 ...

特此公告。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实、准确和完整承担法律责任。 桐昆集团股份有限公司（以下简称"桐昆股份"或"本公司"） 第九届董事会第十七次会议通知于 2025 年 4 月 18 日以书面或电子邮 件、电话等方式发出，会议于 2025 年 4 月 28 日在桐昆股份总部会议 室以现场表决和通讯表决相结合的方式召开，会议应到董事十一名, 实到董事十一名。会议由董事长陈蕾女士主持，本次会议的召开符合 《中华人民共和国公司法》《公司章程》及有关法律、法规的规定。 经过有效表决，会议一致通过如下决议： 一、以 11 票赞成、0 票反对、0 票弃权，一致通过《关于 2025 年第一季度报告的议案》。 本议案已经公司第九届董事会审计与风险防范委员会第十次会 议审议通过，并同意提交公司董事会审议。具体内容详见上交所网站 （www.sse.com.cn）《桐昆集团股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度报告》。 桐昆集团股份有限公司董事会 股票代码：601233 股票简称：桐昆股份 公告编号：2025-031 桐昆集团股份有限公司 第九届董事会第十七次会议决 ...