Market Overview - The refining and trading sector experienced a slight decline of 0.04% on October 29, with Maohua Shihua leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4016.33, up 0.7%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13691.38, up 1.95% [1] Stock Performance - He Shun Petroleum saw a significant increase of 9.98%, closing at 20.72, with a trading volume of 89,300 shares and a turnover of 180 million yuan [1] - Hengli Petrochemical and Tongkun Co. also reported gains of 2.89% and 2.49%, respectively [1] - Conversely, Maohua Shihua led the declines with a drop of 2.61%, closing at 4.86, with a trading volume of 457,200 shares and a turnover of 225 million yuan [2] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 221 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 244 million yuan [2][3] - Notable stocks like Hengli Petrochemical and China Petroleum had mixed capital flows, with Hengli experiencing a net outflow of 38.81 million yuan from main funds [3]

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for October, including companies such as China Southern Airlines (600029.SH) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750.SZ) [1] - The macroeconomic analysis emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" period for China's reform and innovation, indicating that it is a critical time for achieving significant progress towards socialist modernization [5] - The fixed income section discusses the recent fluctuations in the bond market, noting that the central bank's actions to pause and then resume government bond trading reflect its intention to stabilize yields [6][7] - The report provides an overview of market indices, showing slight declines in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which closed at 3988.22, down 0.22% [3] - Industry performance data indicates that the comprehensive index rose by 2.06%, while sectors like non-ferrous metals and beauty care saw declines of 2.72% and 1.51%, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report rates the chemical industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on the third-quarter earnings season, undervalued industry leaders, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the increasing significance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials companies [2][15] - It highlights the potential for sustained high oil prices, the ongoing recovery in the oil and gas exploration sector, and the growth opportunities in new materials, particularly in semiconductor and OLED materials [15][20] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - During the week of October 20-26, 2025, 24 out of 100 tracked chemical products saw price increases, while 43 experienced declines, and 33 remained stable. The average price of 28% of products increased month-on-month, while 56% decreased [10][15] - International oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $61.50 per barrel, a weekly increase of 6.88%, and Brent crude at $65.94 per barrel, up 7.59% [10][15] - The report notes that the average price of lithium carbonate for battery-grade reached 75,700.00 CNY/ton, a 3.46% increase from October 1 [10] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the third-quarter earnings, undervalued industry leaders, and the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries. It also emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials [15] - Long-term investment themes include the sustained high oil prices benefiting the oil and gas sector, rapid development in downstream industries, and the recovery of demand supported by policy initiatives [15][20] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include China Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petrochemical Corporation, and several others in the new materials and electronic materials sectors [15][20]

Core Insights - The refining and trading sector increased by 0.99% on October 27, with Unified Corporation leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3996.94, up 1.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13489.4, up 1.51% [1] Sector Performance - Unified Corporation (600506) saw a closing price of 22.40, with a rise of 6.67% and a trading volume of 350,800 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 789 million [1] - Other notable performers included Wanbangda (300055) with a 2.37% increase, Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) up by 1.78%, and Tongkun Co. (601233) rising by 1.33% [1] Capital Flow - The refining and trading sector experienced a net outflow of 7.43 million from main funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 13.89 million [2] - The main funds' net inflow for China Petroleum (601857) was 72.09 million, while Unified Corporation (600506) had a net inflow of 50.48 million [3] - Retail investors showed a net outflow from major stocks, with Unified Corporation experiencing a net outflow of 3.37 million from retail funds [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. has shown a significant stock price increase of 24.60% year-to-date, with a recent rise of 10.04% over the past five trading days, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [2]. Company Overview - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is located in Tongxiang City, Zhejiang Province, and was established on September 27, 1999. The company was listed on May 18, 2011, and primarily engages in the production and sales of various types of civil polyester filament and grey cloth [2]. - The main revenue composition includes: polyester pre-oriented yarn (61.10%), purified terephthalic acid (37.69%), polyester drawn yarn (15.07%), polyester textured yarn (9.46%), and other segments [2]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported operating revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.41%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.93% to 1.097 billion yuan [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 3.203 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 341 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Tongkun Co., Ltd. was 70,600, a slight decrease of 0.22% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person increased by 0.22% to 33,944 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holds 26.4554 million shares, a decrease of 7.3797 million shares from the previous period. Southern CSI 500 ETF increased its holdings by 3.4825 million shares to 24.9877 million shares [3].

Group 1: Key Insights from the Report - The report highlights a focus on advanced manufacturing and new productive forces as key areas for future economic development, emphasizing the importance of solidifying the foundation and comprehensive efforts [5][6] - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to transition from policy support to structural upgrades, driven by the outcomes of the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session [8][9] - The report notes that the leading company, Ningde Times, achieved a profit of 49.034 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.20%, indicating strong performance and a solid industry position [12][13] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report provides an overview of market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3950.31, reflecting a 0.71% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.02% [3] - The report details the performance of various industry sectors, with the telecommunications sector leading with a 4.73% increase, while the oil and petrochemical sector experienced a decline of 1.36% [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of new energy, advanced manufacturing, and digital infrastructure as key beneficiaries of the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," indicating a shift towards innovation-driven growth [9][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the large refining and chemical industry, covering key aspects such as project spreads, product prices, profit margins, inventory levels, and operating rates across different segments including polyester, refining, and chemicals. It also tracks the performance and financial forecasts of major private refining and chemical companies [2][8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Big Refining Weekly Data Briefing - **Project Spreads**: Domestic key large refining projects had a weekly spread of 2,564 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton (1% decrease) compared to the previous week. Foreign key large refining projects had a weekly spread of 1,212 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton (0% decrease) [2]. - **Polyester Sector**: POY/FDY/DTY industry average prices were 6,407/6,618/7,732 yuan/ton respectively, with week - on - week decreases of 114/79/54 yuan/ton. Their weekly average profits were 72/ - 54/88 yuan/ton, down 54/30/14 yuan/ton week - on - week. Inventory levels were 11.8/21.9/29.5 days, down 5.0/4.2/2.0 days. The filament开工率 was 91.0%, a 0.0 percentage point decrease. Downstream, the loom operating rate was 66.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, and the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises was 11.1 days, up 0.9 days, while the finished product inventory was 24.0 days, down 1.7 days [2]. - **Refining Sector**: Domestic refined oil prices of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene decreased this week. In the US, the price of aviation kerosene decreased [2]. - **Chemical Sector**: The average price of PX this week was 794.4 dollars/ton, an increase of 6.9 dollars/ton compared to the previous week, and the spread over crude oil was 336.7 dollars/ton, up 4.5 dollars/ton. The PX operating rate was 86.3%, a 1.0 percentage point decrease [2]. - **Related Listed Companies**: Private large refining and polyester filament companies include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., Ltd., and Xin凤鸣 [2]. 3.2. Big Refining Weekly Report 3.2.1. Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends The report provides historical data and trends on the performance of the large refining index, including the comparison of the performance of the petrochemical index and six private large refining companies over different time periods (recent week, recent month, recent three months, recent year, and since the beginning of 2025). It also shows the trends of domestic and foreign large refining project spreads in relation to Brent oil prices [8]. 3.2.2. Polyester Sector - **Price and Profit Analysis**: Analyzes the prices, spreads, and profit margins of various polyester products such as PX, MEG, PTA, POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips. It also examines the relationships between these products and raw materials like crude oil and PTA [9]. - **Operating Rate and Inventory Analysis**: Tracks the operating rates of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester filaments, as well as the inventory levels of PTA, polyester filaments, and polyester staple fiber. It also analyzes the operating rates and inventory levels of downstream weaving enterprises [9]. - **Sales and Production Ratio**: Analyzes the sales - to - production ratios of polyester filaments and polyester staple fiber in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions [47][69]. 3.2.3. Refining Sector - **Domestic Refined Oil**: Compares the prices and spreads of domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene with crude oil prices in both yuan/ton and dollars/barrel units [82][84][92]. - **US Refined Oil**: Analyzes the prices and spreads of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in relation to crude oil prices in both yuan/ton and dollars/barrel units [94][103]. - **European Refined Oil**: Examines the prices and spreads of European gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in relation to crude oil prices in both yuan/ton and dollars/barrel units [108][115]. - **Singapore Refined Oil**: Analyzes the prices and spreads of Singapore gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in relation to crude oil prices in both yuan/ton and dollars/barrel units [120][130]. 3.2.4. Chemical Sector Analyzes the prices and spreads of various chemical products such as polyethylene LLDPE, EVA foaming material, EVA photovoltaic material, homopolymer polypropylene, styrene, acrylonitrile, PC, MMA, etc., in relation to crude oil prices [136][146].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Views - The PTA industry is experiencing severe losses, but there is potential for a positive turnaround due to limited future capacity expansion and high industry concentration [5][27] - The domestic PTA industry's effective capacity has increased from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to 84.27 million tons in 2024, with an average annual compound growth rate of 12.5% [21][23] - The industry concentration ratio (CR7) for PTA has reached 76%, indicating that leading companies have significant pricing power, which supports industry self-discipline and a potential recovery [22][27] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.11% this week, with 75.6% of the 545 tracked chemical stocks showing weekly gains [17] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) increased by 0.23% to 3885 points [20] PTA Industry Analysis - The PTA industry is projected to add 8.7 million tons of new capacity in 2025, with major contributions from companies like Dongfang Shenghong, Sanfangxiang, and Xin Fengming [5][21] - As of late October 2025, the PTA price spread has fallen below 100 yuan, indicating significant industry losses [25][27] Key Product Tracking - The inventory days for polyester filament yarn have significantly decreased, indicating improved market conditions [29][30] - The domestic urea market price has stabilized at 1596 yuan/ton, with a cautious outlook due to supply-demand pressures [45] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xin Fengming, and Tongkun Co., among others [5][27] - Beneficiary stocks include Hengyi Petrochemical, Sanfangxiang, and Dongfang Shenghong [5][27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" as indicated by the report's outlook on the refining sector [149]. Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in oil prices, which has led to an increase in inventory replenishment among textile enterprises, resulting in a significant reduction in long filament inventory [1]. - Brent crude oil prices increased to $65.94 per barrel, up by $4.65 from the previous week, while WTI prices rose to $61.50 per barrel, an increase of $3.96 [1][13]. - The report notes that the domestic price difference for key refining projects is 2374.85 CNY/ton, a decrease of 30.36 CNY/ton (-1.26%) week-on-week, while the international price difference is 1213.16 CNY/ton, down by 2.88 CNY/ton (-0.24%) [2]. Refining Sector Summary - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices, including potential trade agreements between the US and China, and sanctions against Russia, which have contributed to a favorable environment for oil price recovery [1][13]. - The report indicates that the refining sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with some companies seeing stock price increases while others face declines [1][136]. Chemical Sector Summary - The chemical sector is facing weak overall demand, with oil price rebounds not translating into significant price support for chemical products [1]. - Specific products such as EVA and pure benzene have seen price declines due to weak downstream demand, leading to narrowed price differentials [1][51]. Polyester & Nylon Sector Summary - The report notes that polyester filament prices have slightly decreased, but the rebound in oil prices has stimulated replenishment sentiment among downstream textile enterprises, leading to a notable reduction in filament inventory [1][89]. - The average price for polyester filament is reported at 6439.29 CNY/ton for POY, with a slight decrease in profitability [1][112].

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for October, including companies such as China Southern Airlines (600029.SH) and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750.SZ) [1] - The macroeconomic analysis indicates that China's foreign trade has shown strong resilience, leading to a record high in the current account surplus for the first half of the year, while the surplus as a percentage of GDP remains within internationally recognized reasonable limits [2][4] - The solid-state battery technology is identified as the next generation of power batteries for electric vehicles, with significant advantages in safety and energy density, supported by government policies [6][7] - The solid-state battery equipment market is projected to grow rapidly, with an estimated global market size of 4 billion yuan in 2024, and expected to reach 107.94 billion yuan by 2030 [7] - Shengquan Group is recognized as a leading synthetic resin enterprise in China, expanding into biomass chemicals and electronic chemicals, with a robust growth trajectory driven by increasing demand in downstream sectors [10][11] - The demand for electronic resins is expected to rise significantly due to the growth of AI servers and the ongoing domestic substitution of electronic resins [10][11] - The report notes that the global market for silicon-based anode materials is projected to reach 30 billion yuan by 2025, driven by the increasing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage [12] - Shengquan Group's proprietary biomass refining technology is highlighted for its ability to achieve high-value utilization of biomass, contributing to a complete industrial chain [13]