Market Overview - On November 18, the securities sector rose by 0.14% compared to the previous trading day, with Northeast Securities leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3939.81, down 0.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.49, down 0.92% [1] Top Gainers - Northeast Securities (code: 000686) closed at 10.26, up 4.80% with a trading volume of 1.7964 million shares and a turnover of 1.833 billion [1] - Huatai Securities (code: 601688) closed at 22.17, up 2.45% with a trading volume of 1.2704 million shares and a turnover of 2.824 billion [1] - Other notable gainers include: - Hua'an Securities (code: 606009) up 2.11% [1] - Shouchuang Securities (code: 601136) up 1.36% [1] - Guosheng Securities (code: 002670) up 1.35% [1] Top Losers - Founder Securities (code: 601901) closed at 8.07, down 0.98% with a trading volume of 721,000 shares and a turnover of 585 million [2] - Pacific Securities (code: 6601099) closed at 4.29, down 0.92% with a trading volume of 1.2025 million shares and a turnover of 517 million [2] - Other notable losers include: - Guohai Securities (code: 000750) down 0.90% [2] - Xiangcai Shares (code: 600095) down 0.77% [2] Capital Flow - The securities sector experienced a net outflow of 864 million from institutional funds, while retail funds saw a net inflow of 385 million [2] - Speculative funds had a net inflow of 479 million [2]

冯琳认为，当月工业生产增速较快下行，但反内卷推进下部分行业供需好转，叠加有色金属价格上涨等 因素，带动工业品价格改善，对增值税收入增长有所支撑；消费税的增长背后是今年"双十一"提前启 动、金价上涨、假期出行等因素提振相关应税商品销售；企业所得税收入同比增速较上月放缓，主要是 9月和10月分别为缴税小月和大月，企业所得税绝对规模差异较大，增速出现剧烈波动属于正常现象。 至于个人所得税，"今年以来，个人所得税收入保持较快增长，除因低基数外，可能还与加强个税征管 有关。"冯琳表示。 华泰证券认为，10月个人所得税同比增长较9月的16.9%回升至27.3%，部分受个人投资者境外投资收益 补税提振。 【大河财立方 记者 陈玉静】11月17日，财政部披露前10月财政收支情况，1-10月，全国一般公共预算 收入186490亿元，同比增长0.8%。其中，全国税收收入153364亿元，同比增长1.7%；非税收入33126亿 元，同比下降3.1%。在几个主要税种的税收收入上，个人所得税同比增长亮眼。前10个月个人所得税 13363亿元，同比增长11.5%。 从单月来看，10月个人所得税的增长也较快。东方金诚研究发展部执行总监冯琳 ...

Core Viewpoint - The overall industry prosperity index continued to decline in October, but the rate of decline has slowed down, with improvements noted in essential consumption, midstream manufacturing, and large financial sectors, while TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) shows continued differentiation [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The essential consumption, midstream manufacturing, and large financial sectors are leading in terms of prosperity improvement [1] - The TMT sector continues to exhibit a mixed performance, indicating varying levels of recovery across different segments [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - A short-term "barbell" strategy is recommended, suggesting a balanced allocation across growth, cyclical, and dividend stocks [1] - Focus on identifying sectors with improving prosperity that have a degree of sustainability, as well as those with relatively low valuations and chip positions [1] - Potential recovery opportunities are highlighted in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, general automation, storage, military industry, and insurance [1] - Additionally, there is a suggestion to consider left-side positioning in certain consumer and service sectors, such as dairy products [1]

Core Insights - The total retail sales in October increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 4.6 trillion yuan, slightly above the Wind consensus expectation of 2.7% [1] - The growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage points compared to September, primarily due to a deceleration in the sales of automobiles and home appliances [1] - Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.0% [1] Group 1 - The holiday economic effect from the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, along with the early promotion period for "Double Eleven," contributed positively to sales [1] - Basic living goods showed a favorable sales trend, and the new high in gold prices boosted investment demand significantly [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the "14th Five-Year Plan" continues to emphasize expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [1] - In the context of a moderate recovery in domestic demand, there may be a continued divergence in sales performance across different categories [1] - Structural opportunities are suggested to be focused on emotional consumption, the rise of domestic brands, AI+ consumption, and the silver economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall industry prosperity index continued to decline in October, but the rate of decline has slowed, with essential consumption, midstream manufacturing, and large financial sectors showing significant improvement [1] Industry Analysis - **AI Chain Deepening**: The prosperity of storage, communication equipment, and software is on the rise, while components and consumer electronics may experience a high-level decline [1] - **Price Increase Chain**: Benefiting from global fiscal and monetary easing, as well as domestic anti-involution policies, sectors such as non-ferrous metals, coal, certain chemicals, and renovation materials are seeing a recovery in prosperity [1] - **Capital Goods and Intermediate Products**: Industries like batteries, photovoltaics, and engineering machinery are experiencing a rebound in prosperity [1] - **Consumer Goods**: The prosperity of dairy products and cosmetics is recovering from the bottom [1] - **Independent Prosperity Cycles**: Sectors such as pharmaceuticals, military industry, and insurance are witnessing a recovery in prosperity [1] Investment Strategy - A short-term barbell strategy is recommended, balancing investments across growth, cyclical, and dividend sectors, focusing on those with improving prosperity, sustainable potential, and relatively low valuations [1] - After the gradual digestion of technology crowding pressure, there may be opportunities for recovery, particularly in non-ferrous metals, chemicals, new energy, general automation, storage, military industry, and insurance [1] - Additionally, early positioning in certain consumer and service sectors, such as dairy products, is advised [1]

华泰证券研报称，国家统计局公布10月份规上工业发电量8002亿千瓦时，同比增长7.9%，较9月增长6.4 个百分点；其中火电同比增长7.3%，较9月增长12.7个百分点；水电同比增长28.2%，较9月放缓3.7个百 分点。预测10月全社会用电量增速或达10.2%，虽然10月是传统用电淡季（主要系秋冬之交低温未至、 十一假期停工停产），但是10月发电量"淡季不淡"或为今年四季度电力消费需求同比高增的缩影。火电 发电量同比增幅扩大12.7个百分点是另一亮点，考虑到水电在来水转弱下增幅收窄，对火电挤出效应减 弱，叠加2024年四季度低基数，看好强火电需求+低库存+供给受压制支撑四季度动力煤价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major securities firms in China have released their investment strategy reports for A-shares in 2026, with a consensus on a "slow bull market" as the expected trend [1][3] Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market is anticipated to continue in a slow bull pattern, with a shift in driving forces from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" [4][5] - The A-share market is expected to experience low volatility, with a focus on global exposure as a key variable for 2026 [3][4] - Analysts predict a profit growth of approximately 4.7% for the entire A-share market in 2026, with many industries nearing performance improvement [4][5] Group 2: Investment Themes - Three major investment themes have been identified: technology growth, Chinese enterprises going global, and cyclical resource products [10][12] - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a shift in focus from concepts to performance, particularly in application breakthroughs [11][12] - Chinese enterprises' global expansion is viewed as a significant opportunity for profit growth and market capitalization [13] Group 3: Style Rotation - A potential style shift from "growth" to "value" is anticipated around June 2026, influenced by industry trends and liquidity conditions [8][9] - The market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style, with cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [9][10] - Analysts suggest maintaining a focus on technology while also considering previously underperforming sectors such as real estate and consumer goods [10][12]

Group 1 - Cathay Securities has been expanding in Southeast Asia since 2015, establishing a branch in Singapore and acquiring a 50.97% stake in Vietnam Investment Securities (IVS) by the end of 2019 [1][3] - China Galaxy Securities has also made significant strides in Southeast Asia, acquiring the securities business of CIMB Group in Malaysia in 2018, and has become one of the most widely covered Chinese securities firms in Asia [1] - In its 2025 semi-annual report, China Galaxy reported leading market shares in brokerage business across Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, and Thailand, and completed 34 equity and bond financing transactions totaling SGD 1.8 billion [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities' Singapore subsidiary received a capital markets services license in 2023, allowing it to conduct securities trading and corporate financing legally [2] - In 2025, Huatai's subsidiary obtained the mainboard sponsor qualification from the Singapore Exchange, enabling it to undertake and manage mainboard IPO projects [2] - Huatai Securities emphasized its commitment to internationalization as a key strategic focus, enhancing its integration of domestic and international operations [2] Group 3 - Cathay Securities announced on November 17 that its board approved the acquisition of an Indonesian securities company, marking another step in its Southeast Asian expansion [3] Group 4 - The performance growth of Chinese securities firms is increasingly driven by overseas markets, with 15 A-share listed securities firms reporting international business revenues of CNY 20.12 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.35% [4] - Among these firms, 12 reported positive growth in overseas business, with 12 firms experiencing growth rates exceeding 10% [4] - Major firms like CITIC Securities, CICC, Cathay Securities, and Huatai Securities are leading in international business, while smaller firms are also experiencing rapid growth [4]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3][4] Market Outlook - Following the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, the A-share market has entered a new bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2] - Securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key feature being the shift in driving forces [3][4] Driving Forces - The driving force is expected to shift from "valuation repair" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4] - Estimates suggest that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement turning points [4] Investment Strategies - Major securities firms highlight three main investment lines: technology growth, Chinese enterprises going global, and cyclical resource products [9][11][13] - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a focus on performance rather than concepts, particularly in application breakthroughs [10] - The trend of Chinese enterprises expanding internationally is seen as a significant configuration clue, with a focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and electric grid equipment [12] Market Style Rotation - The potential for a style switch from "growth" to "value" around June 2026 is a focal point of discussion among securities firms [7][8] - The market is expected to trend towards a more balanced style, with cyclical industries approaching supply-demand equilibrium [8][6] Resource Products - Resource products are anticipated to become a new main line following technology, driven by global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among major securities firms is that the A-share market is expected to enter a "slow bull market" in 2026, with a shift in investment opportunities from technology dominance in 2025 to multiple main lines in 2026 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The A-share market has entered a new bull market since the policy measures introduced on September 24, 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high in 2025 [2]. - Major securities firms predict that the market will continue to evolve within a slow bull framework, with a key characteristic being the shift in driving forces [3][4]. - CITIC Securities emphasizes that A-shares should be viewed from a global demand perspective, as Chinese companies' advantages in the global value chain are transforming into pricing power, forming the basis for a low-volatility slow bull market [3]. Group 2: Driving Forces - There is a general expectation among securities firms that the driving force for the market will shift from "valuation recovery" to "profit-driven" or "fundamental verification" in 2026 [4]. - CICC estimates that the overall profit growth for A-shares in 2026 could be around 4.7%, with many industries nearing performance improvement [4]. - Dongwu Securities notes that the overall revenue and profit growth for A-shares has ended a four-year downward cycle and is beginning to rebound, supported by economic reforms and improved supply-demand dynamics [4]. Group 3: Investment Styles - The debate among securities firms centers on whether the market style will shift from "growth" to "value" in 2026, with Dongwu Securities identifying June 2026 as a potential key time for this transition [6][7]. - CICC suggests that the market style may become more balanced, as many cyclical industries approach supply-demand equilibrium [8]. - Guotai Junan recommends maintaining a focus on technology while also considering previously underperforming sectors such as real estate and consumer goods during the bull market [8]. Group 4: Investment Themes - Securities firms highlight three main investment themes: technology growth, Chinese companies going global, and cyclical resource products [9][10]. - The technology growth sector remains a favored direction, with a shift in focus from concepts to performance, particularly in application breakthroughs [9]. - The trend of Chinese companies expanding internationally is seen as a significant opportunity, with recommendations to focus on sectors like home appliances, engineering machinery, and global pricing resources [10][11].