Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry in August showed signs of recovery with revenue reaching 1189.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and a business volume of 16.15 billion pieces, up 12.3% year-on-year [1][2]. Industry Summary - August express delivery revenue was 1189.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.2%, and business volume reached 16.15 billion pieces, growing 12.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The average price per delivery in August was 7.37 yuan, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase of 0.01 yuan but a year-on-year decline of 7.2% [2]. - Major provinces like Guangdong and Zhejiang have stabilized their express delivery prices [2]. Company Performance - YTO Express reported revenue of 53.9 billion yuan in August, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, with a business volume of 25.1 billion pieces, up 11.1%. The average revenue per piece was 2.15 yuan, down 1.13% year-on-year but up 0.07 yuan month-on-month [3]. - Yunda Express achieved revenue of 41.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with a business volume of 21.45 billion pieces, up 8.7%. The average revenue per piece was 1.92 yuan, down 3.52% year-on-year but up 0.01 yuan month-on-month [3]. - Shentong Express reported revenue of 44.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.5%, with a business volume of 21.47 billion pieces, up 10.9%. The average revenue per piece was 2.06 yuan, up 3% year-on-year and up 0.09 yuan month-on-month [3]. Price Increase Trends - Provinces like Liaoning and Heilongjiang announced price increases effective from September 20, with over 80% of the national market share in provinces that have announced price hikes [4]. - The industry has seen a slight price recovery since the "anti-involution" policy was implemented, and the trend of rising prices is expected to continue [4]. - The upcoming autumn and winter seasons are anticipated to boost demand, potentially leading to further increases in delivery fees [4]. Profitability Elasticity - A price increase of 0.1 yuan is estimated to increase the average revenue per delivery for listed companies by 0.05 yuan, contributing to a net profit increase of 0.0375 yuan per piece [5]. - For 2024, the estimated profit per piece for major companies is as follows: YTO (0.15 yuan), Shentong (0.05 yuan), Zhongtong (0.3 yuan), and Yunda (0.08 yuan). A nationwide price increase of 0.3 yuan would result in profit elasticity of 75%, 245%, 38%, and 141% respectively [5]. Investment Recommendations - Despite challenges in the first half of 2025, the express delivery sector is expected to recover due to price stabilization and improved competitive dynamics [6]. - Recommended stocks include YTO Express (600233.SH), Shentong Express (002468.SZ), Jitu Express-W (01519), Zhongtong Express-W (02057), and Yunda Express (002120.SZ) [6].

与此同时，就微观流动性而言，下半年以来，港股特别是恒生科技板块持续向好。一方面，以国际中介 机构的持股数量为统计口径，其持有的恒生科技数量自4月以来快速提升；另一方面，以港股通为观察 口径，对恒生科技的持股数量从6月开始明显回升。 智通财经APP获悉，浙商证券发布研报称，AI应用，港股互联网先行，美联储降息落地、港股互联网传 统业务或触底以及AI业务正迎快速发展三重因素共振。加之，板块估值尚处历史低位。看好港股互联 网的战略配置机会。最关键的是，针对AI进展较快的互联网龙头，理解其估值空间，不能用修复逻 辑，而应基于AI投资时代的成长逻辑重塑。建议关注大模型及垂类应用线索代表性公司。 浙商证券主要观点如下： 驱动因素一：流动性持续迎利好 站在当前，结合美国经济数据情况，本轮美联储降息类型更接近预防式降息。因此，单就美联储降息的 影响而言，对恒生科技走势构成边际利好。 自2023年以来，全球AI产业浪潮来临，股市也迎来AI投资时代，AI的快速进展将重塑这些公司的成长 逻辑，打开成长空间。 投资建议：大模型以及垂类线索 从估值的角度看，截至9月16日，恒生科技的PE-TTM约23倍，处于2020年7月以来32%分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the content, so this part is skipped. 2. Core Views of the Report - The probability of the central bank restarting Treasury bond trading is increasing, and it is worth expecting the central bank to announce the restart of Treasury bond trading within the year. The expectation of the central bank restarting Treasury bond trading may lead to a decline in long - term interest rates [1][4]. - If the central bank restarts buying bonds, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may fall below 1.70%, similar to the situations in the first half of 2015 and 2019 [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Reasons for the Increasing Probability of the Central Bank Restarting Treasury Bond Trading - **Tool Establishment Intention**: When the central bank's Treasury bond trading operation was set up, it had the implication of being a normal monetary policy tool. Currently, the interest rate is in a stable range - bound state, which provides a market foundation for the central bank to resume normal operations. In early 2025, the central bank suspended this operation, perhaps due to the rapid decline in interest rates [1][11]. - **Institutional Design**: The central bank's draft for soliciting opinions in July 2025 removed the freeze on collateral for bond repurchases. Coupled with the recent extension of the maturity of large banks' Treasury bond purchases from within 3 years to 3 - 5 years, if the central bank restarts Treasury bond trading, the pressure on large banks to "sweep the market" will decrease, and the impact on short - and medium - term interest rates may be systematically reduced [2][15]. - **Current Necessity**: Although the immediate need to restart Treasury bond trading from the perspective of liquidity is relatively low, given the limited room for further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio and the stable operation of the bond market, there is a need to resume normal long - term liquidity adjustment through Treasury bond trading. It is difficult to normalize the function of adjusting the interest rate curve, and the necessity of selling long - term bonds for adjustment is insufficient [3][18]. 3.2 Impact of the Central Bank Restarting Treasury Bond Trading - **Impact on Liquidity**: Restarting Treasury bond trading may be a "icing on the cake" operation. Even if the central bank does not restart, inter - bank liquidity is expected to remain stable and abundant. The central bank's short - and medium - term liquidity injection is obvious, and corporate foreign exchange settlement and fiscal factors will lead to endogenous liquidity easing in Q4 [4][30]. - **Impact on the Bond Market Strategy**: If the central bank restarts buying bonds within the year, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may fall below 1.70%. The expectation of the central bank restarting Treasury bond trading may lead to a decline in long - term interest rates [4][31]. 3.3 Other Related Points - **Function Importance Ranking**: The importance ranking of the functions of central bank Treasury bond trading is: liquidity management > cooperation with Treasury bond issuance > adjustment of the interest rate curve [18]. - **Judgment on Future Operations**: The central bank's Treasury bond trading as a liquidity management tool has the implication of being normal. Currently, the necessity of restarting is slightly insufficient, but it can be launched in small amounts in advance. The removal of the freeze on collateral for bonds will reduce policy costs and systematically reduce the impact on short - and medium - term interest rates [27].

截至发稿，王霆累计任职时间6年111天，现任基金资产总规模3560.5万元，任职期间最佳基金回报 76.11%， 任职期间最差基金回报6.09%。 数据显示，浙商证券资管旗下1只基金重仓天孚通信。浙商汇金先进制造混合（013145）二季度持有股 数1.52万股，占基金净值比例为3.41%，位居第八大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮盈赚取约13.86万元。 浙商汇金先进制造混合（013145）成立日期2021年8月16日，最新规模3560.7万。今年以来收益 35.33%，同类排名2183/8172；近一年收益86.67%，同类排名959/7980；成立以来收益0.23%。 浙商汇金先进制造混合（013145）基金经理为王霆。 9月19日，天孚通信涨5.08%，截至发稿，报188.50元/股，成交36.96亿元，换手率2.54%，总市值 1465.43亿元。 资料显示，苏州天孚光通信股份有限公司位于江苏省苏州市高新区长江路695号，成立日期2005年7月20 日，上市日期2015年2月17日，公司主营业务涉及光无源器件的研发设计、高精密制造与销售业务。主 营业务收入构成为：光通信元器件98.91%，其他1.09%。 从 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December [1][2][4]. Summary by Relevant Categories Interest Rate Outlook - Most brokerages anticipate an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, but the long-term reduction may not meet prior market expectations [1][2][4]. - The Fed's internal decision-making shows significant divergence, leading to uncertainty in future rate paths [1][4][9]. Economic Projections - The prevailing view is a soft landing for the U.S. economy, although some brokerages warn that excessive monetary easing could lead to stagflation risks [1][4][9]. - The Fed's dot plot indicates a lower rate of future cuts than previously expected, with projections of 75 basis points this year and 25 basis points in the following two years [3][10]. Market Reactions - Short-term risk assets are expected to experience increased volatility, while mid-term outlooks remain positive for U.S. equities [3][6]. - The market had already priced in the rate cut, leading to initial gains in bonds and equities followed by corrections [6][10]. Sector Impacts - Sectors such as real estate and manufacturing are anticipated to benefit first from the rate cuts, with a favorable sentiment in A-shares and increased sensitivity in Hong Kong stocks due to improved overseas liquidity [7][8][12]. - The Fed's decision is expected to create more room for China's monetary policy adjustments, potentially leading to further easing domestically [2][12]. Divergence in Analyst Opinions - Analysts express mixed views on the Fed's approach, with some highlighting a hawkish tone in the risk management narrative, suggesting that continuous rate cuts may not be guaranteed [4][11]. - The Fed's focus on employment risks over inflation risks indicates a cautious approach to future monetary policy adjustments [9][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points marks the beginning of a new preventive rate-cutting cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Over 15 brokerage firms have released reports interpreting the Fed's rate cut, with "in line with expectations" being the dominant sentiment [1]. - Most brokerages anticipate an additional 50 basis points of cuts within the year, but long-term cuts may be less than previously expected [1][4]. - The consensus among analysts is that the U.S. economy may achieve a soft landing, although some warn that excessive easing could lead to stagflation risks [1][11]. Group 2: Individual Brokerage Insights - **CITIC Securities**: Predicts further cuts in October and December, but the path for rates next year remains unclear [3]. - **China Merchants Securities**: Indicates that the Fed's dot plot suggests a lower rate cut than market expectations, with potential volatility in risk assets [6]. - **Guotai Junan Securities**: Believes the new rate-cutting cycle will support market liquidity and stock performance, despite a slower long-term pace [8][10]. Group 3: Economic Implications - **Zhejiang Merchants Securities**: Describes the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, indicating a hawkish tone and uncertainty about future cuts [4][13]. - **Huatai Securities**: Adjusts its forecast for rate cuts from two to three times this year, citing ongoing pressures in the job market [4][12]. - **CICC**: Warns that excessive monetary easing could exacerbate inflation and lead to a stagflation scenario [11]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - **CITIC Jian Investment**: Highlights that real estate and manufacturing sectors are likely to benefit first from the rate cuts [7]. - **Guangdong Development Securities**: Suggests that the Fed's actions may create more room for China's monetary policy adjustments [2][6]. - **Dongwu Securities**: Notes that the Fed's guidance indicates an additional rate cut next year, which may support market sentiment [2].

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 8.671 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 3.3 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 60.07%, setting a new historical high for the same period [1] Financial Performance - In Q2, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 4.725 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.24% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.75%, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [1] Business Segments - The copper and cobalt business in H1 2024 saw both volume and price increases, serving as the main growth driver for the company [1] - The acquisition of gold resources has strengthened the company's resource layout, with preliminary assessments suggesting potential for further resource reserve increases [1] Future Outlook - The project is planned to commence production in 2028, with an expected annual output of approximately 11.5 tons of gold [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its growth prospects and financial performance [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for the first half of the year, reaching 740 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 61.19% [1] - In Q2, the net profit was 375 million yuan, showing a remarkable year-on-year increase of 456.29% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.67% [1] - The strong performance is attributed to the reversal of credit impairment losses amounting to 234 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - The operating cash flow showed a substantial improvement, with a net inflow of 2.353 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 231.33% [1] - The gross profit margin reached 40.27%, indicating enhanced profitability [1] Business Development - The company is positioned as an industry leader, with a clear performance inflection point [1] - By the first half of 2025, overseas revenue is expected to account for over 17% of total revenue [1] - The photovoltaic intelligent equipment business benefited from new technology iterations, generating 531 million yuan in revenue for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 32.04% [1] Strategic Partnerships - The company has established deep ties with globally recognized firms such as Volkswagen, BMW, LG, and SK, which is expected to enhance overall profitability as overseas revenue increases [1] Future Outlook - As a leader in solid-state battery production lines, the company is anticipated to initiate a strong second growth curve [1] - The diversification into non-lithium battery businesses, including 3C intelligent equipment and intelligent logistics systems, is effectively smoothing out the cyclical fluctuations of a single industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sanhua Intelligent Controls reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.11 billion yuan for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.31% [1] Financial Performance - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 1.207 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39.20% [1] - Revenue from the refrigeration and air conditioning components business reached 10.389 billion yuan, up 25.49% year-on-year, accounting for 63.88% of total revenue [1] - Revenue from the automotive components business was 5.874 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.83% year-on-year growth [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company has successfully entered the bionic robot electromechanical actuator manufacturing sector [1] - A dedicated robotics division has been established to actively collaborate with clients on product development, trial production, iteration, and ultimately achieving mass production [1] - The overall progress of the robotics project is on track, which is expected to open new growth avenues for the company [1]

Group 1 - Tianshan Aluminum experienced a decline of 5.06% on September 18, with a stock price of 10.88 CNY per share and a trading volume of 580 million CNY, resulting in a turnover rate of 1.27% and a total market capitalization of 50.613 billion CNY [1] - Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. was established on November 3, 1997, and listed on December 31, 2010. The company is primarily engaged in the production and sales of primary aluminum, aluminum deep processing products, prebaked anodes, high-purity aluminum, and alumina [1] - The revenue composition of Tianshan Aluminum includes 65.26% from the sale of self-produced aluminum ingots, 24.20% from alumina sales, 6.89% from aluminum foil and aluminum foil raw materials, 2.10% from high-purity aluminum sales, and 1.55% from other sources [1] Group 2 - According to data, one fund under Zheshang Securities Asset Management has Tianshan Aluminum as a top holding. The Zheshang Zhijiang Phoenix ETF (512190) held 287,300 shares in the second quarter, accounting for 4.07% of the fund's net value, ranking as the seventh largest holding [2] - The Zheshang Zhijiang Phoenix ETF (512190) was established on August 5, 2019, with a latest scale of 58.662 million CNY. Year-to-date returns are 29.36%, ranking 1718 out of 4222 in its category; the one-year return is 56.51%, ranking 1842 out of 3804; and since inception, the return is 140.58% [2]