南华贵金属日报:降息预期回升 贵金属延续走高 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月8日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场偏强运行，最终SHFE黄金2510主力合约785.02元/克，+0.1%；SHFE白银2510合约收 9258元/千克，+1.07%。近期美经济数据不佳以及政府对美联储施压等影响，美联储9月降息预期回升是价 格上涨主因。周四晚间公布的美周度初请失业金人数高于预期，反映就业市场降温，而美7月纽约联储1Y通胀 预期走升。消息面，英国央行周四宣布降息25基点至4%，符合市场预期，但九位货币政策委员会成员中四人 反对降息，亦出现罕见"双轮投票"，显示出央行内部在通胀压力下的政策分歧正在加剧。中国央行则连续 第9个月增持黄金1.86吨至2300.41多。 【本周关注】 本周数据清淡。事件方面，周五22：20，2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线仍主要由多头掌握局面，伦敦金有望延续回升，支撑3340，阻力3400，3450。伦敦银 支撑37.6，38，阻力38.5。操作上仍维持回调做多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum will focus on empowering the real economy and supporting national construction through high-quality development of the futures market, addressing the increasing demand for risk management in the current uncertain global environment [1][2]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The forum will be held on August 19-20, 2025, and is co-hosted by Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, gathering various stakeholders including government departments, regulatory agencies, industry associations, enterprises, financial institutions, and experts [1]. - The theme of the forum emphasizes the role of the futures market as a stabilizer and toolbox for risk management, crucial for supporting the real economy and national strategies across agriculture, manufacturing, and international trade [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The forum aims to explore how to transform uncertainties in economic development into certainties, enhancing the quality of support for the real economy and national construction [2]. - High-level opening of the futures market is seen as essential for building a new development pattern and achieving modernization, with significant progress noted in recent years regarding foreign participation in commodity futures and options [2]. Group 3: Practical Applications - The forum's discussions will address the needs of real enterprises, with a focus on practical applications of futures tools for export pricing and profit locking, particularly in the petrochemical industry [3]. - Successful case studies from companies utilizing domestic futures contracts for export pricing will be highlighted, demonstrating the effectiveness of futures in supporting trade and enhancing operational efficiency [3]. Group 4: Sub-forums and Key Topics - In addition to the main forum, there will be four sub-forums covering topics such as foreign opening, risk management for industrial enterprises, and specific agricultural and industrial products [4]. - Notable speakers will include experts from various sectors, discussing themes related to high-quality economic development, the futures industry's role in national construction, and global trends in the derivatives market [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum is positioned as a significant event for the global futures and derivatives industry, serving as a platform for high-quality development and integration of futures with national construction efforts [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices continued to decline, approaching the lower limit of the trading range since July. The current fundamentals are mixed. Bullish factors include a decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories according to EIA weekly data, Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices, and Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on imports from India starting August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50%. Bearish factors are the possibility of a meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, increasing the likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market's reaction to bullish factors is limited, possibly due to the weakening of peak - season demand support. As seasonal demand weakens, the risk of supply surplus intensifies, and time is bearish for crude oil, with limited upside potential and a need to watch for downside risks. There is a lack of substantial short - term positive news, and attention should be paid to whether US sanctions against Russia can be implemented after August 8 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Multi - and Short - Term Analysis - Bullish factors: Decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories according to EIA weekly data; Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices; Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on imports from India starting August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50% [4]. - Bearish factors: A meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, increasing the likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 3.2. Market Dynamics - US EIA data for the week ending August 1: Crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels (expected - 0.591 million barrels, previous value + 7.698 million barrels); strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0235 million barrels (previous value + 0.0238 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.0453 million barrels (previous value + 0.069 million barrels); gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels (expected - 0.406 million barrels, previous value - 2.724 million barrels); refined oil inventory decreased by 0.565 million barrels (expected + 0.775 million barrels, previous value + 3.635 million barrels). Commercial crude oil imports were 5.962 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.174 million barrels per day from the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 0.62 million barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day. Crude oil production decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day. Refinery utilization rate was 96.9% (expected 95.2%, previous value 95.4%) [5]. - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of September light crude oil. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to Asia in September was at a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, compared with a premium of $2.20 per barrel in August. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to the US in September was at a premium of $4.2 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, and the OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to north - western Europe in September was at a premium of $3.35 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [5]. - The US White House stated that Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil. The tax rate will take effect at 00:01 on the 21st day after the issuance of the executive order [5]. 3.3. Global Crude Oil Futures Prices and Spread Changes | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 2025 - 08 - 06 | 2025 - 07 - 31 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M + 2 | 67.43 | 66.89 | 72.53 | 0.54 | - 5.1 | | WTI Crude M + 2 | 63.94 | 63.41 | 68.2 | 0.53 | - 4.26 | | SC Crude M + 2 | 494.2 | 499.5 | 525.3 | - 5.3 | - 31.1 | | Dubai Crude M + 2 | 66.21 | 66.77 | 72.51 | - 0.56 | - 6.3 | | Oman Crude M + 2 | 69 | 69.18 | 75.07 | - 0.18 | - 6.07 | | Murban Crude M + 2 | 69.41 | 69.8 | 76 | - 0.39 | - 6.59 | | EFS Spread M + 2 | 0.68 | 0.87 | 0.73 | - 0.19 | - 0.05 | | Brent Calendar Spread (M + 2 - M + 3) | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.72 | - 0.05 | - 0.1 | | Oman Calendar Spread (M + 2 - M - 3) | 1.53 | 0.67 | 1.94 | 0.86 | - 0.41 | | Dubai Calendar Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 0.93 | 0.88 | 1 | 0.05 | - 0.07 | | SC Calendar Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 4.7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | - 1.1 | - 0.7 | | SC - Dubai (M + 2) | 1.6424 | 3.2412 | 0.2382 | - 1.5988 | 1.4042 | | SC - Oman (M + 2) | - 1.0076 | 0.8512 | - 2.8418 | - 1.8588 | 1.8342 | [6]

证券之星消息，8月7日多元金融板块较上一交易日下跌0.74%，南华期货领跌。当日上证指数报收于 3639.67，上涨0.16%。深证成指报收于11157.94，下跌0.18%。多元金融板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600599 | *ST能猫 | 8.12 | 5.05% | | 5.21万 | 1 4145.63万 | | 600053 | 九鼎投资 | 16.26 | 2.39% | | 13.98万 | 2.27亿 | | 002316 | ST亚联 | 5.37 | 2.29% | | 11.44万 | 6088.02万 | | 600061 | 国投资本 | 7.69 | 0.26% | | 25.96万 | 2.00亿 | | 000532 | 华金资本 | 15.51 | 0.00% | | 7.32万 | 1.14亿 | | 000935 | 四川双马 | 19.76 | -0.30% | | 14.48万 | 2.87亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Nanhua Futures (603093) has experienced a decline, with significant net outflows from major and retail investors, while retail investors showed some net inflow [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of August 7, 2025, Nanhua Futures closed at 21.32 yuan, down 2.16% with a turnover rate of 2.14% and a trading volume of 130,700 lots, amounting to a transaction value of 280 million yuan [1]. - Over the past five days, the stock has seen a consistent decline in major and speculative funds, with retail investors showing a net inflow on August 7 [2]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - Nanhua Futures has a total market capitalization of 13.007 billion yuan, with a net asset value of 4.158 billion yuan and a net profit of 857.383 million yuan [3]. - The company's price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) stands at 37.93, while the price-to-book ratio (P/B) is 3.17, indicating a higher valuation compared to industry averages [3]. - The company's gross margin is reported at 0%, and the net margin is 16.1%, which are significantly lower than the industry averages [3]. Group 3: Recent Ratings and Analyst Insights - In the last 90 days, three institutions have provided ratings for Nanhua Futures, with one buy rating and two hold ratings, and the average target price set at 22.48 yuan [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals is likely to be bullish, and the short - term situation is mainly controlled by bulls. London gold is expected to continue to rise, with support at 3340 and resistance at 3400 and 3450. London silver has support at 37.2 and resistance at 38 and 38.3. The operation strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - On Wednesday, the precious metals market fluctuated strongly. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 783.68 yuan/gram, down 0.08%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9182 yuan/kilogram, up 1.19%. The main reason for the price increase is the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September due to poor US economic data and government pressure on the Fed. Fed's Kashkari said on Wednesday that a rate cut may come soon and still believes two rate cuts this year are appropriate [2]. b) This Week's Focus - This week's data is light. In terms of events, on Thursday at 03:10, 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will speak; at 22:00, 2027 FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic will participate in a fireside chat on monetary policy online. On Friday at 22:20, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report [3]. c) Precious Metals Price and Spread - **Price**: SHFE gold main contract is 783.68 yuan/gram, up 0.15%; SGX gold TD is 779.2 yuan/gram, down 0.09%; CME gold main contract is 3431.8 dollars/ounce, down 0.09%. SHFE silver main contract is 9182 yuan/kilogram, up 1.18%; SGX silver TD is 9148 yuan/kilogram, up 1.06%; CME silver main contract is 37.935 dollars/ounce, up 0.26% [5]. - **Spread**: SHFE - TD gold is 4.48 yuan/gram, up 73.64%; SHFE - TD silver is 34 yuan/kilogram, down 42.5%; CME gold - silver ratio is 90.4653, down 0.36% [5]. d) Inventory and Position - **Gold**: SHFE gold inventory is 36045 kilograms, up 0.1%; CME gold inventory is 1203.0742 tons, down 0.31%; SHFE gold position is 215212 lots, down 1.57%; SPDR gold position is 952.79 tons, down 0.33% [12]. - **Silver**: SHFE silver inventory is 1161.844 tons, up 0.39%; CME silver inventory is 15737.8769 tons, down 0.06%; SGX silver inventory is 1368.945 tons, up 0.04%; SHFE silver position is 373376 lots, up 1.59%; SLV silver position is 15112.276129 tons, up 0.45% [12]. e) Other Market Data - The US dollar index is 98.2263, down 0.54%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1848, down 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 44193.12 points, up 0.18%; WTI crude oil spot is 64.35 dollars/barrel, down 1.24%; LmeS copper 03 is 9674 dollars/ton, up 0.41%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.22%, unchanged; the 10 - year US real interest rate is 1.88%, up 1.08%; the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is 0.53%, up 6% [16].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core View - Copper prices were slightly stronger on Monday and Tuesday, mainly a correction of the previous decline, and fell slightly again on Wednesday, which is related to the poor US ISM non-manufacturing data. The spread between LME copper and COMEX copper has basically stabilized, and it is difficult to see the expectation that LME copper prices will remain higher than COMEX copper prices in the short term. The oversold situation in COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets. Investors should still be wary of the adverse effects of weak copper demand [3]. Key Points by Category Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,280 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US and other countries reached an agreement on tariff policies; the US dollar index declined due to employment data; there is obvious support below [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policies are inconsistent; global demand has decreased due to tariff policies; the US adjustment of copper tariff policies has led to an extremely inflated COMEX inventory [4][5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data Futures Data - The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 78,280 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous - 1 contract decreased by 300 yuan/ton (-0.38%), and the Shanghai copper continuous - 3 contract had no change. The LME copper 3M contract is at 9,674 US dollars/ton, up 39.5 US dollars (0.41%), and the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15 with no change [4]. Spot Data - The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 78,350 yuan/ton, 78,330 yuan/ton, 78,190 yuan/ton, and 78,500 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline. The spot premiums of these regions also decreased [6]. Copper Spread and Inventory Data Spread Data - The current refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) is 660.43 yuan/ton, down 173.61 yuan (-20.82%); the reasonable refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) is 1,483.2 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan (-0.19%) [8]. Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE)**: The total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 20,346 tons, up 1,579 tons (8.41%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [12]. - **LME**: The total LME copper inventory is 156,125 tons, up 2,275 tons (1.48%); the registered warehouse receipts are 145,200 tons, up 3,350 tons (2.36%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 10,925 tons, down 1,075 tons (-8.96%) [14]. - **COMEX**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 263,104 tons, up 7,156 tons (2.8%); the registered warehouse receipts are 123,343 tons, up 13,890 tons (9.89%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 139,761 tons, down 11,176 tons (-7.4%) [16]. Copper Import and Processing Data - The copper import profit and loss is - 141.8 yuan/ton, up 120.22 yuan (-45.88%); the copper concentrate TC is - 41 US dollars/ton, up 1 US dollar (-2.38%) [17].

1. Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 7, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 2. Core View - Tin prices showed a slight increase on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. If the delay persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [3] 3. Tin Price Volatility and Forecast - Latest closing price: 266,940 yuan/ton - Monthly price range forecast: 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton - Current volatility: 14.36% - Current volatility's historical percentile: 26.1% [2] 4. Tin Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished product inventory and fear of price decline: - Strategy 1: Short Shanghai Tin main futures contract, selling 75% at around 275,000 yuan/ton - Strategy 2: Sell call options (SN2509C275000), selling 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase: - Strategy 1: Long Shanghai Tin main futures contract, buying 50% at around 230,000 yuan/ton - Strategy 2: Sell put options (SN2509P245000), selling 25% when volatility is appropriate [2] 5. Factors Affecting Tin Prices Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing - The semiconductor sector is still in the expansion cycle - Myanmar's resumption of production falls short of expectations [8] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies - Myanmar's tin ore flowing into China - The semiconductor sector's expansion slows down and moves towards a contraction cycle [5][6] 6. Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main | yuan/ton | 266,940 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 1 | yuan/ton | 266,940 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 | yuan/ton | 267,280 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,230 | - 70 | - 0.21% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.02 | 0 | 0% | [7] Spot Data (Weekly) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 267,600 | - 500 | - 0.19% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 400 | - 300 | - 42.86% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 255,600 | - 500 | - 0.2% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 259,600 | - 500 | - 0.19% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 173,750 | - 500 | - 0.29% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 181,250 | - 500 | - 0.28% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 273,750 | - 500 | - 0.18% | [15] 7. Tin Import and Processing Data (Daily) | Data Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Tin Import Profit and Loss | yuan/ton | - 15,412.62 | - 1,335.69 | 9.49% | | 40% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 12,200 | 0 | 0% | | 60% Tin Ore Processing Fee | yuan/ton | 10,050 | 0 | 0% | [19] 8. Tin Inventory Data Daily Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Quantity | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total Warehouse Receipt Quantity of Tin | tons | 7,358 | 75 | 1.03% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity of Tin in Guangdong | tons | 4,905 | 57 | 1.18% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity of Tin in Shanghai | tons | 1,582 | 18 | 1.15% | | Total LME Tin Inventory | tons | 1,875 | - 25 | - 1.32% | [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has temporarily ended, and price trends have returned to fundamentals, with the previous premium being rapidly squeezed out. For ethylene glycol, the inventory accumulation in Q3 is small, the supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the downward space is limited under low inventory, and the inventory accumulation expectation is postponed. After the correction, the valuation is relatively neutral, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range following market sentiment [3] - The new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" was released, leading to a rebound in coal prices and an increase in costs [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ethylene glycol is 4200 - 4700 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 1.4%. For PX, it is 6500 - 7400 yuan, with a volatility of 11.78% and a historical percentile of 17.7%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300 yuan, with a volatility of 9.30% and a historical percentile of 4.6%. For bottle chips, it is 5800 - 6500 yuan, with a volatility of 7.92% and a historical percentile of 0.9% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about a decline in ethylene glycol prices, enterprises with long positions can short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4450 - 4550 yuan to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 10 - 15 yuan [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4280 - 4330 yuan to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (EG2509P4350) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30 yuan to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2] Polyester Raw Material Production Facilities - Before May 30, 2005, there were various polyester raw material production facilities. For MEG, facilities in Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, etc. had different production capacities, operating states, and production time. For PX, facilities in Yangzi Petrochemical, Tianjin Petrochemical, etc. were included. For PTA, facilities in Yizheng Chemical Fibre, Luoyang Petrochemical, etc. were listed [7] Polyester Daily Data Price and Spread - Many polyester - related products showed price and spread changes on August 6, 2025, compared with previous days. For example, Brent crude oil was at 67.7 dollars/barrel, with a daily change of 0.0 and a weekly change of - 4.8 dollars/barrel. TA01 contract was at 4754 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 32 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 100 yuan/ton. TA1 - 5 month spread was - 38 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 4 yuan/ton and a weekly change of - 20 yuan/ton [8] Inventory and Processing Fees - On August 6, 2025, PTA warehouse receipts were 27131, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of - 2607. Many processing fees also changed. For example, the gasoline reforming spread was 37 dollars/ton, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 5 dollars/ton. POY profit was 111 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 45 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 110 yuan/ton [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - In the short - term, the asphalt supply increases due to the resumption of some refineries in Shandong, while the demand is suppressed by typhoon weather in South and East China, rainfall in North China, and the persistent shortage of funds. The overall fundamentals are weakening, and the absolute price fluctuates due to the cost of crude oil. The monthly spread, basis, and crack spread have all weakened to some extent [2]. - In the medium - to long - term, as autumn approaches, the construction conditions in the north and south will improve, and the construction will enter the peak season. The debt resolution progress of local governments in 2025 will speed up, and the funds will be alleviated. The peak season is still worth looking forward to [2]. 3. Other Key Points 3.1. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in August 2025 is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.95% [1]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short 25% of the bu2509 asphalt futures at the price range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton according to their inventory [1]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with low regular inventory and planning to purchase based on orders, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising asphalt prices, they can buy 50% of the bu2509 asphalt futures at the price range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3. Market Data | Region | 2025 - 08 - 06 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 08 - 05 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 08 - 04 Price (yuan/ton) | 2025 - 07 - 30 Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (yuan/ton) | Weekly Change (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shandong Spot | 3750 | 3770 | 3785 | 3785 | - 20 | - 35 | | Yangtze River Delta Spot | 3780 | 3780 | 3780 | 3780 | 0 | 0 | | North China Spot | 3660 | 3680 | 3700 | 3720 | - 20 | - 60 | | South China Spot | 3580 | 3580 | 3590 | 3580 | 0 | 0 | | Shandong Spot 09 Basis | 195 | 226 | 212 | 135 | - 31 | 60 | | Yangtze River Delta Spot 09 Basis | 225 | 236 | 207 | 130 | - 11 | 95 | | North China Spot 09 Basis | 105 | 136 | 127 | 70 | - 31 | 35 | | South China Spot 09 Basis | 25 | 36 | 17 | - 70 | - 11 | 95 | | Shandong Spot to Brent Crack (yuan/barrel) | 163.4285 | 166.8943 | 162.4854 | 131.7688 | - 3.4658 | 31.6597 | | Futures Main to Brent Crack (yuan/barrel) | 125.1318 | 127.7311 | 125.7482 | 108.3749 | - 2.5993 | 16.7569 | [5][8] 3.4. Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The pressure on asphalt factory warehouses is small, and manufacturers have a basis for price support; there is a seasonal peak in demand; the operating rate is at a low level, and there is an expectation of catch - up construction in the south; the atmosphere of "anti - involution" sets off a strong expectation of capacity reduction [3][7]. - **Negative Factors**: The arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in China has increased recently; the short - term plum rain season in the south has dragged down demand; the destocking of social inventory has slowed down, and the basis has weakened; the consumption tax reform in Shandong may drive up the operating rate [7].