股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年8月6日 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 今日股指震荡偏强，中证1000指数走势偏强。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升1379.87亿元。期指方面， IF、IH缩量上涨，IC、IM放量上涨，与昨日相反，短期大小盘情绪有待进一步观察确认。 重要资讯 1. 证券业稳定性保障新标准征求意见，明确组织—制度—过程"三位一体"框架。 2. 7月1-31日，全国乘用车市场零售183.4万辆，同比去年7月增长7%，较上月下降12%，今年以来累计零售 1,273.6万辆，同比增长10%。 核心观点 今日股市继续放量上行，主要受军工、机器人概念拉涨，短期情绪面依旧亢奋，游资入场驱动小盘强势，但 观察大盘走势上行已略显疲态，沪深300运行至10日均线压力位，叠加近期外部地缘风险有加剧态势，建议 谨慎为主。 策略推荐 卖出现金担保看跌期权 股指日报期指市场观察 压力位附近，警惕风偏回落 市场回顾 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 0.37 | 0.19 ...

南华贵金属日报: 降息预期回升 贵金属偏强 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月6日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场震荡回升，最终SHFE黄金2510主力合约782.5元/克，+0.26%；SHFE白银2510合约收 9075元/千克，+0.82%。近期美经济数据不佳以及政府对美联储施压等影响，美联储9月降息预期回升是价 格上涨主因。美国7月ISM非制造业PMI为50.1，低于预期51.5，和前值50.8。美国总统特朗普表示美联储主 席是政治性的，鲍威尔降息太晚；可能很快会宣布新的美联储主席。 【本周关注】 本周数据清淡。事件方面，周四03：10，2027年FOMC票委、旧金山联储主席戴利发表讲话 ；22：00， 2027年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克线上参加佛罗里达州首席财务官协会有关货币政策的炉边谈 话；周五22：20，2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。 周四19：00，英国央行公布利 率决议、会议纪要和货币政策报告 。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线仍主要由多头掌握局面，伦敦金有望延续回升，支撑3340 ...

Report Basics - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 6, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices were slightly stronger on Monday and Tuesday, mainly a correction of the previous decline. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper is basically stable, and it's hard to see LME copper price exceeding COMEX copper price in the short - term. However, there are still undercurrents in the spot market and inventory. The short - term oversold situation of COMEX copper may slightly boost the valuations of the other two copper markets. Investors should be vigilant about the negative impact of weak copper demand [3] Detailed Summaries Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,580 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the current volatility's historical percentile is 22.6% [2] Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high - level finished product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2509C82000 call option when volatility is relatively stable [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low - level raw material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main futures contract at around 75,000 yuan/ton [2] Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive**: Agreement on tariff policies between the US and other countries, decline of the US dollar index due to employment data, and obvious lower support [4] - **Likely Negative**: Fluctuations in tariff policies, reduction of global demand due to tariff policies, and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5] Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: The latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 78,580 yuan/ton with no daily change; Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 78,580 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan (0.32%); Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 78,560 yuan/ton with no daily change; LME copper 3M is 9,634.5 US dollars/ton, down 74 US dollars (- 0.76%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 8.15, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [4] - **Spot**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous 1 copper is 78,615 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan (0.25%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 78,630 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan (0.36%); Guangdong Nanchu is 78,460 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan (0.37%); Yangtze Non - Ferrous is 78,790 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan (0.36%) [6] Copper Scrap - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 834.04 yuan/ton, up 53.61 yuan (6.87%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,486 yuan/ton, up 1.6 yuan (0.11%); the price advantage (tax - included) is - 651.96 yuan/ton, up 52.01 yuan (- 7.39%) [8] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 18,767 tons, down 1,581 tons (- 7.77%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 1,553 tons with no change [12] - **LME**: The total LME copper inventory is 153,850 tons, up 14,275 tons (10.23%); the registered warehouse receipts are 141,850 tons, up 14,350 tons (11.25%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 12,000 tons, down 75 tons (- 0.62%) [14] - **COMEX**: The total COMEX copper inventory is 262,190 tons, up 8,759 tons (3.46%); the registered warehouse receipts are 112,243 tons, up 2,790 tons (0%); the cancelled warehouse receipts are 149,947 tons, up 1,010 tons (0.68%) [16] Copper Import and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 262.02 yuan/ton, down 113.2 yuan (76.07%); the copper concentrate TC is - 42 US dollars/ton with no change [17]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 6, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Core View - Tin prices showed a slight increase on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues are not easily resolved, and there are uncertainties in Myanmar's resumption of production. If the situation is delayed, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand on tin prices has not been fully reflected [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Key Data Price Volatility - Latest closing price: 267,490 yuan/ton; price range forecast (monthly): 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton; current volatility: 14.36%; current volatility historical percentile: 26.1% [2] Futures Disk Data (Daily) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Tin Main Contract | yuan/ton | 267,490 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous One | yuan/ton | 267,490 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Tin Continuous Three | yuan/ton | 267,660 | 0 | 0% | | LME Tin 3M | US dollars/ton | 33,300 | 175 | 0.53% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.02 | 0.05 | 0.63% | [7] Spot Data (Weekly) | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Tin Ingot | yuan/ton | 267,000 | 900 | 0.34% | | 1 Tin Premium | yuan/ton | 400 | - 300 | - 42.86% | | 40% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 255,000 | 900 | 0.35% | | 60% Tin Concentrate | yuan/ton | 259,000 | 900 | 0.35% | | Solder Bar (60A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 173,250 | 500 | 0.29% | | Solder Bar (63A) Shanghai Non - ferrous | yuan/ton | 180,750 | 500 | 0.28% | | Lead - free Solder | yuan/ton | 273,250 | 1000 | 0.37% | [13] Inventory Data | Variety | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Total | ton | 7283 | - 10 | - 0.14% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Guangdong | ton | 4848 | - 84 | - 1.7% | | Warehouse Receipt Quantity: Tin: Shanghai | ton | 1564 | 74 | 4.97% | | LME Tin Inventory: Total | ton | 1900 | - 50 | - 2.56% | [22] Other Data - Tin import profit and loss: - 14,076.93 yuan/ton, daily change 1669.38 yuan, daily change rate - 10.6% - 40% tin ore processing fee: 12,200 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% - 60% tin ore processing fee: 10,050 yuan/ton, daily change 0, daily change rate 0% [23] Risk Management Suggestions Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline: Go short on the Shanghai Tin main futures contract with a 75% hedging ratio at around 275,000 yuan/ton; sell call options (SN2509C275000) with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw material inventory and fear of price increase: Go long on the Shanghai Tin main futures contract with a 50% hedging ratio at around 230,000 yuan/ton; sell put options (SN2509P245000) with a 25% hedging ratio when volatility is appropriate [2] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Easing of China - US tariff policies; semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle; Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [8] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies; inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China; slowdown in the expansion of the semiconductor sector and a shift from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5][6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyester Industry Risk Management Daily Report: Coal Turmoil Resurfaces, EG Slightly Strengthens [1] - Date: August 5, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" logic has temporarily ended, and price trends have returned to fundamentals, with the previous premium being rapidly squeezed out. For ethylene glycol, the inventory accumulation in the third quarter is small, the supply-demand contradiction is not significant, the downward space is limited under low inventory, and the inventory accumulation expectation is further postponed. After the correction, the valuation is relatively neutral, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range following market sentiment [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4200 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%. For PX, it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a percentile of 17.7%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a percentile of 4.6%. For bottle chips, it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a percentile of 0.9% [2] Polyester Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about the decline in ethylene glycol prices, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a hedging ratio of 25% in the entry range of 4450 - 4550 to lock in profits and compensate for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2509P4350) to prevent large price drops and sell call options (EG2509C4500) to reduce capital costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% in the entry range of 10 - 15 [2] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short spot position, it is recommended to buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2509) with a hedging ratio of 50% in the entry range of 4280 - 4330 to lock in procurement costs in advance. Also, sell put options (EG2509P4350) with a hedging ratio of 75% in the entry range of 20 - 30 to collect option premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the purchase price of spot ethylene glycol if the price drops [2] Core Contradictions - The "anti-involution" logic has ended, and prices have returned to fundamentals. Ethylene glycol has limited downward space in the third quarter due to small inventory accumulation and low inventory levels, and is expected to fluctuate within a range [3] 利多解读 - On August 4, the Emergency Management Department released the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations", causing coal prices to rebound and production costs to increase [3] 利空解读 - There are market rumors that large filament manufacturers' FDY is suffering serious losses and there are plans to cut production, but the implementation remains to be observed. The "anti-involution" sentiment has cooled after the July 30 Politburo meeting, and valuations have returned to fundamentals. The restart of previously shut - down Saudi Arabian plants has led to an upward revision of September import expectations [6] Polyester Raw Material Production Device Summary - The report lists the production devices of MEG, PX, and PTA put into operation before May 30, 2005, including their regions, enterprises, addresses, capacities, production times, operating statuses, total capacities, capacity proportions, and monthly production impacts [7] Polyester Daily Table - It provides price, spread, warehouse receipt, processing fee, and profit data for various polyester - related products on August 6, 2025, August 5, 2025, and July 30, 2025, as well as their daily and weekly changes [8][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment was reignited by the news of strict inspections on over - production in Shanxi coal mines, and the far - month contracts of coking coal hit the daily limit first. The strengthening of the reverse spread of coking coal 9 - 1 reflects concerns about near - month delivery pressure and strong expectations for far - month valuations. The "anti - involution" policy may be hyped repeatedly, and the coking coal futures price is expected to be more volatile. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - and long - term trends of coal and coke. Attention should be paid to macro events at home and abroad such as the military parade, the Fed's interest rate cut game, and the Fourth Plenary Session. Investors without spot handling ability are not recommended to participate in the delivery game near the 09 contract delivery. The previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and it is recommended to temporarily observe the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for coking coal is predicted to be 950 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.68% and a historical percentile of 63.87%. For coke, the monthly price range is 1480 - 1900, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.37% and a historical percentile of 49.13% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: For the arbitrage scenario of monthly spread arbitrage with no spot exposure, the recommended strategy is to short the coking coal 9 - 1 spread (jm2509&jm2601), with a suggested entry range of (- 40, - 30) [3]. 2. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the warehouse receipts of rebar increased by 5723 tons to 88363 tons, hot - rolled coil remained unchanged at 55998 tons, iron ore remained unchanged at 3600 hands, coking coal decreased by 500 hands to 0 hands, coke remained unchanged at 760 hands, ferrosilicon decreased by 112 sheets to 21930 sheets, and silicomanganese decreased by 243 sheets to 77611 sheets [3]. 3. Core Contradictions - The news of strict inspections on over - production in Shanxi coal mines reignited market sentiment, and the far - month contracts of coking coal hit the daily limit first. The strengthening of the coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread reflects concerns about near - month delivery pressure and strong expectations for far - month valuations. The "anti - involution" policy may be hyped repeatedly, and the coking coal futures price is expected to be more volatile. The report is not pessimistic about the medium - and long - term trends of coal and coke. Attention should be paid to macro events at home and abroad. Near the 09 contract delivery, investors without spot handling ability are not recommended to participate in the delivery game, and the previously recommended coking coal 9 - 1 reverse spread can consider taking profits, and it is recommended to temporarily observe the 09 on - disk coking profit [4]. 4. Profit and Loss Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The expectation of "anti - involution" in coal mines remains, and the mine production increase space in the second half of the year may be limited. The downstream steel mills have good profits, providing a basis for raw material price increases. There is room for policy expectation game before the Fourth Plenary Session in October [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The import profit of overseas coal has recovered, and there will be pressure on subsequent arrivals. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal has resumed, with more than 1000 trucks per day currently. Off - balance - sheet inventory in the spot - futures market flows into the market, putting pressure on spot prices [5]. 5. Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the basis of coking coal and coke futures had different degrees of change, and the on - disk coking profit decreased from - 18 to - 50 [6]. - **Spot Prices**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, most coal and coke spot prices remained unchanged, and the immediate coking profit increased from - 60 to - 12 [7]. 6. Import Profits and Ratios - **Import Profits**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the import profit of Mongolian coal (long - term agreement) decreased by 51 to 234 yuan/ton, the import profit of Australian coal (Peak Downs) increased by 15 to - 241 yuan/ton, etc [8]. - **Ratios**: On August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, 2025, the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal increased from 2.39 to 2.4072 [8].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core View - As August approaches, the 09 contract may start to follow the delivery logic, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt pressure. Fundamentally, the near - term price has dropped and inventory has accumulated. The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has started to decline slightly, and the supply output is expected to continue to recover. The cost remains stable, but with the increase in liquid chlorine price, the profit of chlor - alkali has recovered. The non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season. In the future, attention should be paid to the prosperity of the peak season, the improvement of downstream demand, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory preparation. In the long - term, with the resumption of production and the gradual launch of new production capacity, the supply pressure may gradually emerge [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content 1. Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2400 - 2800. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 24.94%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) of the current volatility is 63.5% [1]. 2. Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price decline, they can sell call options (SH2509, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 2600 - 2650) to collect premiums and short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (SH509C2600, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 50 - 60) to lock in the spot selling price if the price rises [1]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory and planning to purchase according to orders, they can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 2350 - 2400) to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (SH601P2400, 50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 60 - 70) to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [1]. 3. Price and Spread Data Futures Price - On August 5, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2690 (up 2 from the previous day, a daily increase of 0.07%); the 09 contract was 2506 (down 23, a daily decrease of - 0.91%); the 01 contract was 2592 (down 14, a daily decrease of - 0.54%) [2]. Futures Spread - The spread (5 - 9) was 184 (up 25 from the previous day); the spread (9 - 1) was - 86 (down 9); the spread (1 - 5) was - 98 (down 16) [2]. Basis - The basis of the 05 contract (Shandong Jinling) was - 128 (down 2); the basis of the 09 contract (Shandong Jinling) was 57 (up 23) [2]. Factory Price - For 32% caustic soda, the ex - factory prices of various brands in different regions remained unchanged on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day. For 50% caustic soda, the ex - factory price of Jinling dropped by 40 (- 1.6%), and that of Lutai increased by 40 (1.5%), while Beiyuan remained unchanged [3]. Market Price - The market prices of flake caustic soda in different regions remained unchanged on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day [4]. Brand/Regional Spread - The spread of Shandong 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda decreased by 20 on August 5, 2025, compared with August 4, while other spreads remained unchanged [4]. 4. Seasonal Data - There are seasonal data on caustic soda futures spreads (07 - 09, 09 - 11, 11 - 01, 09 - 01) and basis (09 contract, 01 contract in Shandong), but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [5][6].

Report Summary 1. Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 7200 - 7500 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 11.1% [2]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, the recommended strategies are to short L2509 futures at a 25% ratio in the 7400 - 7450 yuan range and sell L2509C7500 call options at a 50% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. - For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, the recommended strategies are to buy L2509 futures at a 50% ratio in the 7150 - 7200 yuan range and sell L2509P7200 put options at a 75% ratio in the 10 - 50 yuan range [2]. 2. Core Contradiction - The polyolefin market was driven up by coking coal in the afternoon. PE fundamentals have seen little change recently. Near - term pressure is high, with weak downstream orders, limited restocking demand, and a significant decline in PE spot trading volume. PE has been accumulating inventory for four consecutive weeks, with LLDPE inventory at a historical high. However, the current stage may be the weakest for PE demand, and downstream orders are expected to recover in August, driving demand improvement. PE is mainly affected by external factors and lacks a clear directional driver [3]. 3. Positive and Negative Factors - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy driving up coking coal prices, providing cost support for polyolefins, and the expected improvement in demand after August [4]. - Negative factors include the recent commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical, limited downstream restocking willingness, and continuous four - week inventory accumulation in PE, especially significant in LLDPE [8]. 4. Market Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, the plastic main basis decreased by 49 yuan/ton to - 63 yuan/ton. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts increased, with changes of 36, 31, and 44 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, spot prices in North China, East China, and South China decreased or remained unchanged. The East China - North China spread remained unchanged, and the East China - South China spread decreased by 30 yuan/ton [9]. - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE film, as well as LDPE film and LLDPE film, showed different degrees of change on August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day [9]. - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: On August 5, 2025, compared with the previous day, Brent crude oil prices remained unchanged, and the prices of US ethane, Northwest coal, and East China methanol changed slightly. The processing profits of different PE production methods also showed different degrees of change [9].

盘面点评： 国债期货日报 2025年8月5日 市场降波 观点：波段交易，等待布局机会 南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 国债期货全天震荡上行，斜率不算陡峭，但波动同样比较平稳。午后盘中转头回落，涨幅有所收窄，最终除 TS2509外，其余合约均收涨。期现两端表现一致，长端均强于短端，5Y以上现券收益率均小幅回落约 0.5bp，而短端则基本持平。此外，日内12合约普遍强于09，跨期价差向下小幅修正。公开市场到期4492亿 元，央行新做1607亿，日内净回笼2885亿元。资金利率保持平稳，隔夜匿名和DR001加权保持在1.31%附 近，非银尾盘资金需求增加，交易所隔夜下午逐步走高至1.54%附近。总体来看，流动性保持平稳。 日内消息： 1.央行等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》。《意见》加强金融服务能力和长效机制建 设，促进保持制造业合理比重投入。健全金融机构服务制造业的内部机制安排，单列制造业信贷计划，针对 细分行业和企业成长阶段特点制定差异化授信政策。 行情研判： 债市日内稳步走强，结合周一的小幅上涨，目前对增值税恢复利好老券的逻辑的计价是 ...

机构 核心观点 南华期货（603093） 短期热卷盘面上下空间有限 瑞达期货（002961） 热卷行情或陷入区间整理 8月5日盘中，热卷期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至3472.00元。截止收盘，热卷主力合约 报3457.00元，涨幅1.89%。 热卷期货主力涨近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 宏观方面，央行召开2025年下半年工作会议暨常态长效推动中央巡视整改工作推进会。会议认为，实施 适度宽松的货币政策，降低存款准备金率，灵活运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。供需情况， 热卷周度产量止跌回升，产能利用率82.46%，处在相对高位；表观需求回升，库存小幅增加。整体 上，热卷终端需求韧性较强，市场从情绪驱动向现实检验转变，行情或陷入区间整理。技术上， HC2510合约1小时MACD指标显示DIFF与DEA低位反弹。操作上，回调择机短多，注意节奏和风险控 制。 南华期货：短期热卷盘面上下空间有限 前期宏观情绪大幅降温，盘面对此已有一定消化，多品种呈现止跌企稳态势。基本面层面，出口新接单 明显走弱，不过中下游期现及空单回补等暂时对冲了这一影响；钢厂在手订单状况良好，市场抛压暂时 不大。同 ...