Core Viewpoint - The company is implementing a "win-win" model in the liquor industry by allowing distributors to handle market activities directly, compensating them through price reductions, which reflects a shift in operational strategy [1] Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - The company aims for a revenue growth target of 5%-12% by 2025, indicating a focus on stable growth amid a competitive market environment [2] - The company has reduced contract liabilities by enhancing its supply capabilities and shortening the order-to-delivery cycle, which allows distributors to maintain better inventory management [1][2] - The company reported revenue growth rates in various regions, with notable increases in areas like Suzhou and Huai'an, indicating effective market penetration strategies [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The company is focusing on the V series, with a target of potentially reaching 5 billion yuan in sales, amidst competition where some brands are experiencing significant declines [2] - The management highlighted that the liquor industry is entering a phase of stock competition, where brands lacking quality and market support will struggle [2] - The company is observing a shift in consumer behavior towards more mature and high-quality products, particularly in the 100-300 yuan price range [3] Group 3: Talent and Organizational Structure - The company has optimized its sales organization, increasing the proportion of local talent in provincial markets to enhance operational effectiveness [4][5] - A training program for key distributors' operators has been initiated, aiming to create a high-quality team that collaborates closely with the company [5] Group 4: Product Development and Future Outlook - The company is investing in a 10 billion yuan technical transformation project, with plans to increase production capacity significantly, particularly in the clear and fragrant liquor segment [6] - The company is also preparing for diversified product offerings, including different flavor profiles, to meet evolving consumer preferences [6]

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with revenue growth rates declining from double digits to single digits, and cash flow growth lagging behind revenue growth [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - The white liquor industry achieved a total revenue of 427.218 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.38%, and a net profit of 166.805 billion yuan, up 7.41% [2]. - In Q1 2025, the industry reported revenues of 148.535 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.43%, and a net profit of 63.097 billion yuan, growing by 2.71% [2]. - Combining Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the industry generated revenues of 247.491 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.11%, and a net profit of 98.491 billion yuan, up 0.86% [2]. - Revenue growth rates are highest for high-end liquor, followed by mid-range and then sub-high-end liquor, while net profit growth rates follow the same order [2]. Cash Flow and Prepayments - By the end of 2024, the industry had prepayments of 60.328 billion yuan, an increase of 18.601 billion yuan from Q3 2024 [3]. - In Q1 2025, prepayments decreased to 49.177 billion yuan, down 11.151 billion yuan from Q4 2024 [3]. - The operating cash flow net amount for the industry in 2024 was 148.331 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.72%, while cash received from sales was 465.847 billion yuan, growing by 6.25% [3]. - In Q1 2025, the operating cash flow net amount was 48.645 billion yuan, up 62.29%, with cash received from sales at 150.192 billion yuan, a 16.65% increase [3]. Valuation Analysis and Dividends - As of April 30, 2025, the absolute PE ratio for the white liquor sector was 19.7x, below the historical average of 30.6x since 2011 [4]. - The relative PE ratio compared to the Shanghai Composite Index was 1.39x, also below the historical average of 2.04x [4]. - Most companies in the sector increased their annual dividend rates in 2024, with dividend yields rising above 3% [4]. - The current valuation reflects market expectations of continued demand pressure, suggesting limited downside for leading brands if demand stabilizes [4]. Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include Kweichow Moutai (600519), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Wuliangye (000858), Jinshiyuan (603369), and Yingjia Gongjiu (603198) [5].

21世纪经济报道记者卢陶然、实习生蔡泽华 北京报道 今世缘(603369.SH)：发布2024年ESG报告 4月30日，今世缘发布2024年ESG报告。报告显示，今世缘2024年温室气体排放量为30,423.21吨二氧化 碳当量，范围1为392.42吨二氧化碳当量，范围2为419640吨二氧化碳当量。 今世缘制定了 2025 年减排计划：一、积极优化能源结构，加大太阳能等可再生能源利用，降低碳排 放；二、升级绿色生产工艺，安装水循环系统，提高水资源循环利用率，降低单位产品水耗，同时改造 设备降低能耗，完善固废处理；三、全力推进零碳白酒产业园建设，采用节能材料，增加园区绿化，打 造行业绿色标杆。 水井坊(600779.SH)：发布2024年ESG报告 4月30日，水井坊发布2024年ESG报告。报告显示，水井坊2024年温室气体排放量为194.405.83吨二氧化 碳当量，范围1为31.547.41吨二氧化碳当量，范围2为11739.72吨二氧化碳当量，范围三151.118.70吨二 氧化碳当量。其中范围三为今年首次披露。 水井坊制定了2024年减碳目标：第一、自2024年到2030年，将范围一和范围二的温室气 ...

Core Viewpoint - Company Jinshiyuan achieved record high performance in 2024, with significant revenue growth and expansion into markets outside Jiangsu province [1][6][10] Financial Performance - In 2024, Jinshiyuan reported revenue of 11.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.32%, and a net profit of 3.412 billion yuan, up 8.80% [1][6] - The company's non-net profit reached 3.380 billion yuan, growing by 7.80% [1][6] - In Q1 2025, Jinshiyuan's revenue was 5.099 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.17% increase year-on-year [11] Market Expansion - Jinshiyuan's revenue from outside Jiangsu province reached 926 million yuan in 2024, a growth of 27.37%, surpassing the overall revenue growth rate [2][12] - In Q1 2025, revenue from outside Jiangsu was 437 million yuan, increasing by 19.04% [3][13] - The company has identified Shandong, Anhui, Henan, and Zhejiang as key regions for market expansion [3][13] Product Segmentation - The revenue from high-end products (特A+类) was 7.491 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth of 15.17% and a gross margin of 82.7% [6][7] - The revenue from the A category was 419 million yuan, growing by 1.95%, while the B category saw a decline of 11.09% [7] Organizational Changes - Jinshiyuan is undergoing organizational restructuring to enhance management efficiency and resource allocation [14][15] - A new customer relationship management department has been established, while the strategic research department has been dissolved [15] Dividend Policy - Jinshiyuan announced a dividend of 12 yuan per share, totaling 1.496 billion yuan, with a payout ratio of 43.85%, both marking historical highs [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" with a target price of 53.64, indicating an expected increase in stock price relative to the market index [1][7][19]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 11.546 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.31%, and a net profit of 3.412 billion, up 8.80% [4][10]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 5.099 billion, a 9.17% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.644 billion, growing by 7.27% [4][10]. - The company is experiencing steady growth across multiple product lines, with significant contributions from premium products [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company generated revenues of 11.546 billion and a net profit of 3.412 billion, with respective growth rates of 14.31% and 8.80% [4][10]. - For Q1 2025, revenues reached 5.099 billion, reflecting a 9.17% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 1.644 billion, up 7.27% [4][10]. Product and Market Analysis - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows that premium products (特 A+/特 A/A) contributed significantly, with revenues of 7.491 billion, 3.347 billion, and 419 million, growing by 15.17%, 16.61%, and 1.95% respectively [5]. - The company is expanding its market presence, with a notable increase in the number of distributors both domestically and internationally [5]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 74.75%, slightly declining to 73.63% in Q1 2025, attributed to a higher proportion of mid-tier products and increased discounts [6]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 29.55%, which decreased to 32.24% in Q1 2025, indicating a slight decline in profitability [6]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 10% for 2025, 11% for 2026, and 11% for 2027, with net profit growth expected at 9%, 10%, and 12% respectively [7][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 2.98, 3.28, and 3.66 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is entering a phase of bottoming out, with signs of pressure relief expected in the second quarter of 2025, leading to potential recovery in the second half of the year [1][3] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with significant structural differentiation among companies, particularly the resilience of leading brands [1][2] - In 2024, the overall demand for liquor is expected to weaken, leading to a decline in cash flow and profit for most listed liquor companies, except for Moutai [1][2] - For Q1 2025, major liquor companies have adopted a more pragmatic approach, with revenue growth of 1.6% and profit growth of 0.3% compared to the previous year [2] Leading Brands - Moutai's revenue grew by 11.7% and profit by 13.8%, significantly outperforming the industry, while Wuliangye achieved positive growth in the thousand-yuan price segment [2] - Regional leaders like Gujing and Jinshiyuan have also shown stronger performance compared to their competitors [2][4] Capital Market - Major liquor companies are enhancing shareholder returns through high dividends and significant buybacks, which helps to bolster market confidence [2] Consumer Goods Sector - The dairy and beer sectors have emerged from their bottoming phase, while snacks and beverages are performing well [2][3] - The overall revenue and profit for the consumer goods sector increased by 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [2] New Opportunities - New channels and product categories are driving growth in the snack and beverage sectors, with significant expansion in snack retail and innovative beverage offerings [3][4] - The food and beverage industry is expected to gradually recover, with potential for both fundamental and valuation improvements in the second half of the year [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a gradual bottoming out for the liquor sector and a positive outlook for consumer goods [2]. Core Insights - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out with significant structural differentiation among companies, while the consumer goods sector is recovering from a downturn [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand recovery, suggesting that new market scenarios and product categories present structural investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Sector: Signs of Bottoming Out and Structural Differentiation - The liquor industry experienced a slowdown in Q4 2024, but maintained positive growth in Q1 2025 despite high base effects, with significant differentiation among companies [7]. - Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are outperforming the market, with Moutai's revenue growth at 10.7% and profit growth at 11.6% in Q1 2025 [12][16]. - The overall revenue for the liquor sector in 2024 was 4,417.7 billion, with a growth rate of 7.7%, while Q1 2025 saw a revenue of 1,533.6 billion, reflecting a growth of 1.8% [12][15]. 2. Consumer Goods Sector: Recovery and Bright Spots - The consumer goods sector, including dairy and beer, is showing signs of recovery, with revenue and profit growth of 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q1 2025 [4][16]. - New channels and product categories are driving growth in snacks and beverages, with companies like Dongpeng and Nongfu showing strong performance [4][16]. - The report suggests a positive outlook for the consumer goods sector, with expectations of a dual boost in fundamentals and valuations in the latter half of the year [4][16]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector, such as Moutai and Wuliangye, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery phase [4][16]. - For consumer goods, it suggests investing in snack and beverage companies that are leveraging new channels and product innovations, highlighting the potential for significant growth [4][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company aims for a revenue growth target of 5-12% for 2025, with net profit growth slightly lower than revenue growth, maintaining a balance between profit growth and operational quality [9] - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 11.544 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.32%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.412 billion, up 8.80% year-on-year, meeting market expectations [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 5.099 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.17%, and a net profit of 1.644 billion, up 7.27% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations [2] Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of 2024 and Q1 2025 were 1.593 billion and 0.538 billion respectively, showing significant year-on-year declines of 33.65% and 44.68%, indicating a trend of reducing pressure on channels [3] - The revenue from premium products (特 A+/特 A 类) accounted for 93.88% of total revenue in 2024, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 15.17% and 16.61% [4] Market Positioning - The company is solidifying its position as a leader in the mid-to-high-end market while expanding into both premium and lower-end segments [4] - In 2024, the company’s revenue growth in domestic and foreign markets was 13.32% and 27.37% respectively, with foreign revenue accounting for 8.02% of total revenue [5] Strategic Development - The company plans to continue its focus on the Yangtze River Delta integration strategy, optimizing its product lines and expanding its dealer network [6] - The company added 130 and 164 new dealers in domestic and foreign markets respectively in 2024, indicating a stable and improving dealer network [6] Profitability Analysis - The company’s gross margin decreased by 3.60 percentage points in 2024 and by 0.60 percentage points in Q1 2025, primarily due to increased competition and rising costs [7] - The net profit margin also saw a slight decline, with net profit margins of 29.6% in 2024 and 29.0% in Q1 2025 [8] Financial Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down from 13.025 billion to 12.606 billion, and net profit from 3.952 billion to 3.653 billion [9] - The report projects an EPS of 2.93 for 2025, with a corresponding valuation of 16x for 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Chinese consumer staples sector is generally positive, with multiple companies rated as "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - In April 2025, five out of eight tracked industries maintained positive growth, two experienced negative growth, and one remained flat. The sectors with single-digit growth include dairy, food and beverage, soft drinks, condiments, and frozen foods. The declining sectors are mass and below liquor and sub-high-end and above liquor, while the beer industry remained flat. Compared to the previous month, six industries showed improved growth rates, while two saw a deterioration. Overall demand has not significantly increased or decreased [10][34]. Summary by Category Liquor Industry - **Sub-high-end and above liquor**: In April, revenue was 26.4 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 167 billion yuan, up 0.3% year-on-year. Inventory levels increased as demand entered a low season [4][14]. - **Mass and below liquor**: Revenue in April was 15 billion yuan, down 10.7% year-on-year, marking 15 consecutive months of negative growth. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 75.2 billion yuan, down 13.9% year-on-year [16]. Beer Industry - Revenue in April was 14 billion yuan, flat compared to the same period last year. Cumulative revenue for January to April was 60.6 billion yuan, down 0.2% year-on-year. The industry is preparing for the upcoming sales season with low inventory levels [5][19]. Condiments - Revenue in April was 36.3 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 155.4 billion yuan, growing 1.3% year-on-year. The industry is experiencing weak sales due to external consumption pressures [21]. Dairy Products - Revenue in April was 33.6 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, while cumulative revenue for January to April was 156 billion yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year. The industry showed positive growth due to a low base effect from the previous year [23]. Frozen Foods - Revenue in April was 6.7 billion yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 43.1 billion yuan, up 1.3% year-on-year. The industry faces challenges due to lower consumer spending and increased competition [25]. Soft Drinks - Revenue in April was 50 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 235.6 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year. The industry is entering its peak season with intensified competition [27]. Restaurant Sector - Revenue for listed restaurant companies in April was 13.4 billion yuan, up 3.1% year-on-year, with cumulative revenue for January to April at 57.1 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year. The sector is seeing recovery, particularly in tea and Western fast food segments [29].

2025 年 05 月 06 日 公司点评 增持/下调 今世缘(603369) 目标价: 53.64 昨收盘:47.40 今世缘：2024 年稳健收官，2025 年顺利实现开门红 ◼ 走势比较 (40%) (28%) (16%) (4%) 8% 20% 24/5/6 24/7/16 24/9/25 24/12/5 25/2/14 25/4/26 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 12.47/12.47 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 590.98/590.98 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 59.38/35.35 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<今世缘：三季度业绩符合预期，产 品结构势能延续>>--2024-11-01 <<今世缘：业绩符合预期，后百亿时 代稳中有进>>--2024-08-19 <<今世缘：一季度开门红顺利收官， 开启后百亿征程>>--2024-05-05 证券分析师：郭梦婕 电话： E-MAIL：guomj@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523080002 证券分析师：林叙希 电话： E-MAIL：linxx@tpyz ...