Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strong performance of various sectors in the stock market, particularly commercial aerospace, lithium battery, and semiconductor industries, driven by significant developments and market trends. Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - The commercial aerospace sector experienced a surge, with stocks like Qian Zhao Guang Dian and Tong Yu Communication hitting the daily limit [5][6] - Beijing plans to build a large-scale data center system in the 700-800 km orbit, aiming to enhance AI computing power in space [9] - The National Space Administration has issued a plan to promote high-quality and safe development in commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2027, focusing on satellite data utilization [9][10] - The commercial aerospace market in China is projected to grow from approximately 0.38 trillion yuan in 2015 to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of about 22% [11] Group 2: Lithium Battery - The lithium battery sector saw renewed strength, with stocks like Hai Ke Xin Yuan and Tian Li Lithium Energy leading the gains [12][13] - Battery-grade EC prices increased from 5200 yuan/ton to 5900 yuan/ton, marking a 25% rise this month [17] - The development of solid-state batteries is highlighted as a key driver for the future of the new energy vehicle industry, with the first large-capacity production line already established [17] Group 3: Semiconductor - The semiconductor industry showed strong performance, with companies like Xi Di Wei and Wei Dao Nano seeing significant stock increases [18][20] - A report indicates that global wafer foundry revenue is expected to reach $199.4 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.3% from 2025 to 2030 [21] - The demand for semiconductors is improving, particularly in AI servers and consumer electronics, with expectations for continued growth in November [21]

Market Overview - In November, the A-share market experienced a general decline, with the STAR Market 50 index dropping the most by 7.1%, while the Shanghai 50 index fell the least by 1.3%. Other major indices such as CSI 300, ChiNext, and CSI 1000 saw declines of -2.7%, -4.5%, and -3.4% respectively. The performance across industries showed significant divergence, with sectors like comprehensive services, banking, and media leading in gains [1][8][10] - The Hong Kong stock market also showed a volatile trend in November, influenced by fluctuations in the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and increasing concerns over the AI bubble. As of November 26, 2025, the Hang Seng Hong Kong 35 index rose by 1.1%, while the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index saw minimal changes of 0.1% and -0.1%, respectively. The Hang Seng Technology Index dropped by 4.9% [1][10][11] A-share Insights - The market is believed to still be in a bull phase, but may enter a period of wide fluctuations in the short term. Compared to previous bull markets, there remains considerable room for index growth, but the emphasis on a "slow bull" policy may prioritize the duration of the bull market over its magnitude. Short-term catalysts appear weak, leading to a potential focus on defensive and consumer sectors, while TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors are recommended for mid-term attention [2][13][14][16][19] - In the context of market fluctuations, defensive sectors such as banking, utilities, and coal, along with consumer sectors like food and beverage, are highlighted as potential areas for investment. Historical trends suggest that previously lagging sectors may perform better during periods of market turbulence [16][17] Hong Kong Market Insights - The outlook for the Hong Kong market remains positive, with expectations of continued upward movement due to strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations. The "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high dividend stocks. Key areas of interest include domestic policies supporting self-sufficiency in chips and high-end manufacturing, as well as independent internet technology companies [3][21][24] - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend, low volatility strategies, particularly in sectors such as telecommunications, utilities, and banking, which can provide stable returns [21][24] Stock Recommendations - For December 2025, the A-share stock selection includes: Sunlord Electronics, Zhongji Xuchuang, Huayou Cobalt, Sinopec, PetroChina, Zhengguang Co., Haier Smart Home, Hengli Hydraulic, Hangcha Group, and Goldwind Technology [26][27] - The recommended stocks for the Hong Kong market include: Tencent Holdings, China Mobile, China Tower, CNOOC Services, Huiju Technology, Sinopec Engineering, and AIA Group [30][31]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed trend with the non-ferrous sector experiencing upward fluctuations, particularly highlighted by the performance of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652), which has seen significant inflows and a year-to-date increase of 70.77% [4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 28, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rose by 1.64%, with a peak increase of over 2%, attracting net subscriptions of 900,000 units, amounting to over 13 million yuan [1]. - The majority of the constituent stocks of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF have shown strong performance, with notable increases such as Yahua Group rising over 5% and Huayou Cobalt and Chifeng Jilong Gold increasing over 3% [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Yahua Group announced a lithium salt production capacity of 99,000 tons, with an additional 30,000 tons production line expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [6]. - The exploration project in Songpan County has identified an additional gold resource of 28.24 tons, bringing the total to 81.06 tons, valued at over 76 billion yuan [6]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Analysts express a positive outlook for the non-ferrous sector, with Citic Securities indicating that the sector is poised for further advancement [6]. - The financial attributes of metals like gold and copper are expected to strengthen due to declining real interest rates and increasing inflation expectations, making them attractive as inflation hedges [8][11]. - The supply-demand dynamics for copper and aluminum are expected to improve, driven by new demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy, suggesting a bullish trend for these metals [7][13]. Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has a high concentration of key metals, with copper accounting for 33% and gold for 13%, making it a leading choice in the sector [17]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance since 2022, with a cumulative return that outpaces its peers while maintaining a reasonable valuation, as indicated by a PE ratio of 23.74, down 61% from five years ago [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant rise in rare metal stocks driven by the dual forces of new energy transition and high-end manufacturing upgrades, with the rare metal theme index showing a strong performance [1][2] - As of November 27, 2025, the rare metal ETF fund has accumulated a 15.14% increase over the past three months, indicating strong investor interest and market momentum [1] - The liquidity of the rare metal ETF fund is notable, with a turnover rate of 5.29% and a total transaction volume of 975.95 million yuan, reflecting active trading [1] Group 2 - The strategic value of rare metals is emphasized, with traditional demand remaining stable while emerging fields like humanoid robots and low-altitude economy are becoming significant growth drivers [2] - The industry is experiencing increased concentration due to tighter domestic supply controls and enhanced export regulations, which are expected to support rising rare metal prices and improve corporate profitability [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the rare metal theme index account for 60% of the index, with companies like Northern Rare Earth and Luoyang Molybdenum leading the way [2][4]

Group 1 - The A-share market for lithium mining stocks is experiencing a strong upward trend, with several companies nearing their daily price limits [1] - Major gainers include Dazhong Mining approaching the limit, Shengxin Lithium Energy rising over 8%, and Guocheng Mining, Yahua Group, and others increasing by over 5% [1] - The overall market sentiment is positive, indicated by the MACD golden cross signal formation, suggesting a favorable outlook for these stocks [2] Group 2 - Dazhong Mining has a market capitalization of 47.4 billion and has increased by 270.25% year-to-date [2] - Shengxin Lithium Energy has a market capitalization of 32.6 billion with a year-to-date increase of 158.49% [2] - Other notable companies include Guocheng Mining with a market cap of 29.4 billion and a year-to-date increase of 114.30%, and Yahua Group with a market cap of 25.7 billion and a year-to-date increase of 91.27% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rare metals sector is experiencing a rebound, driven by increased demand from downstream industries such as energy storage and power batteries, alongside supply-side uncertainties [1] Industry Summary - As of November 27, 2025, the China Securities Rare Metals Theme Index rose by 0.54%, with notable increases in stocks such as Yunnan Zhenye (+5.63%) and Tin Industry Co. (+4.90%) [1] - The price of lithium carbonate futures previously exceeded 100,000 yuan/ton due to significant growth in demand and supply constraints [1] - The scarcity of strategic minor metals, coupled with rapid growth in demand from sectors like new energy, semiconductors, and military industries, is intensifying supply-demand conflicts [1] - Future price trends for rare metals are expected to continue upward due to ongoing resource scarcity, demand structure upgrades, and policy adjustments [1] Company Summary - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Research, the small metals sector is anticipated to see positive changes in 2026, with energy storage demand driving an earlier reversal in the lithium carbonate industry cycle [1] - The value of strategic minor metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony is expected to be continuously reassessed in the context of de-globalization [1] - The restructuring of the global credit landscape and the continuation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will support the favorable trends for precious and minor metals [1] - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Rare Metals Theme Index accounted for 60% of the index, including companies like Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium [1]

Core Insights - Huayou Cobalt Industry has signed a 10-year supply agreement with EVE Energy, focusing on the European automotive market, which will involve supplying approximately 127,800 tons of ultra-high nickel ternary cathode materials [1][2][3] Group 1: Agreement Details - The supply agreement will see Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary, Chengdu Bamo Technology, deliver materials to EVE Energy's Hungarian factory from 2026 to 2035, with an estimated total transaction value of approximately 21.09 billion yuan based on current market prices [2][3] - The agreement is expected to enhance Huayou Cobalt's integration into the European electric vehicle supply chain and strengthen its competitive edge in the lithium battery materials sector [1][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - Huayou Cobalt's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 reached over 4.2 billion yuan, marking a nearly 40% year-on-year increase [1][6] - The company's revenue from overseas markets has been increasing, with 65% of total revenue coming from international sources in the first half of 2025 [1][6] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - The company has developed a vertically integrated supply chain, enhancing resource security and reducing costs through industry chain synergy [1][5] - Huayou Cobalt has been actively investing in research and development, with R&D expenditures exceeding 1 billion yuan annually from 2022 to 2024, and a total of 1,488 patent applications filed as of mid-2025 [7]

Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that gold prices are expected to rise due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a potential reduction of about 75 basis points. This is supported by increasing global ETF demand and stable industrial demand for gold [5][6][8]. - The copper market is projected to face a supply shortage in 2026, driven by the growing demand from renewable energy sectors and AI developments, while supply constraints arise from declining ore grades and geopolitical risks [6][8]. - Tungsten is highlighted for its strategic importance, particularly in high-tech and defense sectors, with strong demand expected from automation and military spending, while supply remains tight due to China's control over production [7][8]. - Cobalt supply is anticipated to decrease significantly due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand from electric vehicle batteries and portable devices is expected to grow, leading to a widening supply gap [8][8]. Industry Performance Review - The steel industry index increased by 22.24% from December 31, 2024, to November 21, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.05 percentage points. The steel sub-sectors showed varied performance, with special steel and common steel experiencing growth [19][20]. - The non-ferrous metals industry index surged by 65.71% during the same period, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index by 52.53 percentage points, indicating strong overall sector performance [19][20]. - In terms of revenue, the steel industry reported a total of 14,252.05 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.18%, but with a notable recovery in net profit [27][34]. - The non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 28,220.96 billion yuan in the same period, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.30%, with substantial increases in net profit across various sub-sectors [34][38]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining an "overweight" rating on companies such as Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, reflecting confidence in their performance amid favorable market conditions [3][11].

Industry Overview and Price Trends - The steel industry is entering a demand off-season, leading to increasing fundamental pressure on steel prices, which are expected to fluctuate at low levels in the short term [2] - Copper supply remains tight due to accidents at major overseas mines, providing support for copper prices. China's significant waste copper imports may face constraints if the EU restricts exports, potentially tightening domestic copper supply next year [2] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile due to weak demand in the domestic off-season and a lack of support from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations [2] - Gold prices face upward pressure due to better-than-expected U.S. non-farm employment data and diverging opinions among Federal Reserve officials [2] - The lithium industry shows positive fundamentals, with adjustments to trading rules for lithium carbonate contracts aimed at curbing speculative behavior, leading to increased price volatility in the short term [2] - Rare earth prices are expected to fluctuate without significant improvement in downstream demand [2] Weekly Strategy - For the steel industry, the implementation of steady growth policies is expected to improve the competitive landscape and enhance profitability, with demand in shipbuilding and construction likely to increase [3] - The copper industry is anticipated to benefit from tightening global supply due to accidents at major mines, while demand is expected to rise in key sectors such as electric power grids and new energy vehicles [3] - In the aluminum sector, the release of new alumina project capacities is expected to keep alumina prices low, while demand from new energy vehicles and high-voltage power grids may support aluminum prices [4] - Gold prices will be influenced by U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions, with long-term factors such as central bank gold purchases enhancing gold's attractiveness [4] - The rare earth industry is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to upgraded export controls, with strategic value in resources and advancements in robotics and new energy sectors driving future demand [4] - The cobalt market is projected to remain tight due to constrained supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand from new energy vehicles and consumer electronics is expected to support prices [5] Investment Ratings - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Huayou Cobalt (603799), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) receiving "overweight" ratings [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the strategic partnership between Huayou Cobalt and Yiwei Lithium Energy, focusing on a long-term supply agreement for high-nickel ternary cathode materials, which is expected to enhance market share and strengthen their collaboration in the lithium battery sector [3][6]. Group 1: Partnership and Supply Agreement - Huayou Cobalt announced a significant sales contract where its subsidiary Chengdu Bamo will supply approximately 127,800 tons of high-nickel ternary cathode materials to Yiwei Lithium Energy over a ten-year period [3][5]. - The supply is aimed at meeting the demands of high-end automotive manufacturers in Europe, indicating a strategic move to deepen the partnership and increase market presence [6]. Group 2: Market Position and Production Capacity - Chengdu Bamo is recognized as one of the earliest companies in China to engage in the research and production of ternary cathode materials, achieving a leading market share [6][8]. - The company has a production capacity of 106,000 tons of cathode materials annually, with ongoing projects in Hungary to further expand its global footprint [8][9]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The ternary cathode material shipments in China reached 456,000 tons from January to August 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.8%, with Chengdu Bamo ranking third among the top suppliers [6][7]. - The company is also focusing on the development of solid-state battery materials, with plans to achieve mass production of sulfide solid electrolyte materials by 2026, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge [9].