Core Insights - The dual festival period of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025 did not yield the expected sales peak for the liquor industry, with retail and catering sales only growing by 3.3% year-on-year, indicating a significant slowdown compared to the May Day holiday [1][3] - The liquor market is experiencing a structural transformation driven by rational consumption, channel revolution, and brand resilience, highlighting both challenges and opportunities for the industry [3] Market Performance - High-end liquor brands showed stable sales during the dual festival period, benefiting from effective volume control and price maintenance strategies, which helped stabilize core product pricing [3][4] - In contrast, mid-range and lower mid-range liquors faced significant challenges, with many products seeing price drops from the 400 yuan range to 200-300 yuan, and sales volumes declining by over 30% for most brands [4][6] - Low-end liquor performed relatively well, with some star products experiencing over 20% year-on-year sales growth, reflecting a shift towards value-for-money consumption [6][8] Regional Variations - The overall liquor market in Sichuan saw a year-on-year sales decline of approximately 20%, with significant drops in the Chengdu market [9][11] - In Guangdong, liquor sales also fell by 20-30% year-on-year, with a notable reduction in corporate group orders and a shift towards lower-priced products [9][11] - The Anhui market saw an increase in banquet events, but the average spending per table decreased, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [11][12] - The Henan market displayed structural opportunities, with some brands achieving growth through product innovation and cultural marketing [12] - Northern provinces like Shandong and Hebei showed signs of recovery, benefiting from a faster rebound in banquet markets [12] Channel Evolution - The liquor industry is undergoing a digital transformation in its channel ecosystem, with major brands adopting instant retail strategies to enhance consumer access [13][15] - Instant retail channels saw significant growth during the dual festival period, with sales on platforms like Meituan increasing by 8 times year-on-year [13][15] - The rise of instant retail reflects a shift in consumer habits towards immediate satisfaction, with younger consumers (aged 25-35) making up over 45% of buyers on these platforms [15][16] Future Trends - The liquor industry's competition is shifting from traditional brand and channel advantages to a more comprehensive competition based on digital capabilities, including data insights and supply chain efficiency [16] - The future of liquor consumption is expected to be characterized by rational, diverse, and instant purchasing behaviors, necessitating a reevaluation of product positioning and marketing strategies by companies [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5]. Core Views - The company reported a stable performance in H1 2025, with revenue of 16.454 billion yuan, down 2.67% year-on-year, and a net profit of 7.663 billion yuan, down 4.54% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of 7.102 billion yuan, down 7.97% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.070 billion yuan, down 11.10% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to launch a new low-alcohol product, 28° Guojiao, in H2 2025, which is anticipated to contribute to new growth [1][2]. - The company’s liquor revenue was 16.397 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 2.62% year-on-year, with sales volume and price changes of +2.09% and -4.62% respectively [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the gross margin was 87.09%, and the net profit margin was 46.57%, both showing slight declines year-on-year [2]. - The company’s sales and management expense ratios decreased to 9.23% and 3.11% respectively [2]. - The operating cash flow decreased by 26.27% year-on-year to 6.064 billion yuan, while contract liabilities increased by 50.95% to 3.535 billion yuan [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 29.538 billion yuan, 31.976 billion yuan, and 33.461 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 12.176 billion yuan, 13.365 billion yuan, and 14.554 billion yuan [3]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 16X, 14X, and 13X for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3]. Market Position and Channel Performance - Traditional and emerging channel revenues were 15.465 billion yuan and 932 million yuan respectively, with traditional channels declining by 3.99% and emerging channels growing by 27.55% year-on-year [2]. - The number of distributors decreased by 70 to 1,791, while the average revenue per distributor increased by 1.18% to 9.1553 million yuan [2]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s current price-to-earnings ratio is 14.43, with a projected decrease to 13.13 by 2027 [4]. - The price-to-book ratio is currently at 4.62, expected to decline to 3.26 by 2027 [4].

从个股来看，贵州茅台收盘价达1436.78元/股，下跌0.50%；五粮液收盘价达121.16元/股，下跌0.26%； 山西汾酒收盘价达190.39元/股，下跌1.87%；泸州老窖收盘价129.86元/股，下跌1.56%；洋河股份收盘 价达67.61元/股，下跌0.49%。 北京商报讯（记者 刘一博 冯若男）10月9日尾盘，三大指数集体上涨，沪指3933.97点上涨1.32%。白酒 板块以2241.33点收盘下跌0.46%，其中18只白酒股下跌。 中信证券指出，白酒行业当前正处于过去三十年以来第三轮大周期的筑底阶段。本轮白酒周期在经济环 境、白酒行业价格库存发展趋势、上市公司报表业绩表现、行业政策变化、资本市场表现等诸多方面与 白酒行业在2012—2016年有诸多相同之处。考虑到当前库存、价格、政策影响、消费场景恢复、上市公 司报表等众多因素，中信证券认为本轮行业基本面底有望出现在2025年三季度，今年下半年是白酒上市 公司报表业绩压力最大的阶段，预计最早2026年一季度有望看到动销拐点。 ...

Core Insights - The liquor sector experienced a decline of 0.72% on October 9, with Gujing Gongjiu leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3933.97, up 1.32%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13725.56, up 1.47% [1] Liquor Sector Performance - Gujing Gongjiu's stock price fell by 2.91% to 155.90, with a trading volume of 31,800 shares and a transaction value of 495 million [2] - Other notable declines included Shanxi Fenjiu (-1.87% to 190.39), Luzhou Laojiao (-1.56% to 129.86), and Jiu Gui Jiu (-1.86% to 61.15) [2] - The overall liquor sector saw a net outflow of 1.686 billion from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 830 million [2][3] Capital Flow Analysis - Major stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao experienced significant net outflows of 887 million and 161 million respectively from institutional investors [3] - Retail investors showed a preference for stocks like Jiu Gui Jiu, which saw a net inflow of 122 million [3] - The data indicates a mixed sentiment in the market, with institutional investors pulling back while retail investors are more active [3]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of the liquor industry during the holiday season is expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations, although there are some positive indicators in specific segments [3][5]. Group 1: Liquor Sales Performance - Liquor sales showed marginal acceleration about a week before the holiday but gradually slowed down afterward, with an overall expected decline of around 20% [3]. - High-end products, particularly from Moutai and Wuliangye, demonstrated good turnover, while mid-range products like Wuliang Chun and Honghua Lang saw double-digit growth in certain regions [3][4]. - Demand for large gatherings remains relatively strong, with positive growth reported in Jiangsu, Henan, and Sichuan, particularly in the mid-price range [3]. Group 2: Regional Performance - Performance varies significantly by province, with Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results, while other regions like Hunan and Anhui met expectations with declines of over 20% [3][4]. - Feedback from various regions indicates that while some areas experienced a decline, the overall performance was not as poor as initially anticipated [3]. Group 3: Channel Inventory and Pricing - Channel inventory is experiencing slight depletion but remains at a high level, with a balance between incoming and outgoing shipments expected to continue into Q4 2025 and H1 2026 [5]. - Pricing remains stable with slight increases, although there is anticipated downward pressure in the coming months due to seasonal factors and promotional activities [5]. Group 4: Company Strategies and Market Dynamics - Companies are generally reducing their promotional spending, focusing more on consumer-end products rather than channel products, with a notable shift towards secondary products [6]. - Despite reduced spending, leading brands are still managing to increase their market share in specific segments, indicating a competitive market landscape [6]. - The overall collection and shipment progress for companies is lagging by over 10% compared to last year, with some brands maintaining their targets while others are struggling [6]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The current liquor cycle is seen as entering a bottoming phase, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower performance risks, those expected to confirm performance bottoms, and those undergoing significant transformations [7]. - Specific companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu are highlighted as priority investments due to their resilience [7]. - Attention is also drawn to companies like Yanghe and Jiuzi Li Du, which are undergoing changes that could lead to future growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor sector experienced a decline in stock prices despite a general market increase, indicating potential challenges in the industry [1]. Market Performance - On October 9, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.24% to 3931.07 points, while the white liquor sector closed at 2232.28 points, down by 0.86% [1]. - Among 20 white liquor stocks, notable declines included: - Kweichow Moutai: closed at 1427.92 CNY/share, down 1.11% - Wuliangye: closed at 120.4 CNY/share, down 0.89% - Shanxi Fenjiu: closed at 188.09 CNY/share, down 3.05% - Luzhou Laojiao: closed at 128.87 CNY/share, down 2.31% - Yanghe Brewery: closed at 67.60 CNY/share, down 0.50% [1]. Industry Insights - According to Kaiyuan Securities, the improvement in the white liquor market's sales dynamics depends on two key factors: - The pace of social inventory reduction - The distribution strategies of liquor manufacturers [1]. - If manufacturers lower their payment collection requirements and slow down delivery schedules, it could alleviate channel inventory pressure and lay the groundwork for a sales recovery [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the liquor industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [22]. Core Viewpoints - The liquor industry is experiencing a marginal recovery in demand while supply continues to clear out, with expectations of a 20% year-on-year decline in sales during the holiday period [5][6]. - High-end products like Moutai and Wuliangye are showing better turnover, while mid-range products are performing relatively well in certain regions [5]. - The report suggests prioritizing investments in companies with stable performance, those undergoing significant transformation, and those with quality products that are clearing out inventory [5]. Industry Basic Data - The liquor industry consists of 20 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 31,219.12 billion [2]. - The circulating market value stands at 31,214.28 billion [2]. Relative Index Performance - The absolute performance of the liquor industry over the past 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -4.0%, -6.4%, and -15.6% respectively [3]. - The relative performance compared to the benchmark index is -7.2% over 1 month, -24.9% over 6 months, and -31.1% over 12 months [3]. Sales Performance Insights - During the holiday period, liquor sales are expected to decline by approximately 20%, aligning with pre-holiday expectations [5]. - High-end gifting demand has improved slightly before the holidays, while mid-range business group purchases are still under pressure [5]. - Regional performance varies, with provinces like Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan showing slightly better-than-expected results [5]. Brand Performance - Moutai and Wuliangye are performing well, while other brands are experiencing significant declines in sales [5][6]. - The report highlights that brands like Gujing and Jiuzi are expected to confirm performance bottoms and drive growth through market share [5]. Channel and Inventory Insights - Channel inventory is slightly decreasing, with supply and demand remaining in a tight balance [5]. - The report anticipates that Q4 will focus on inventory digestion, with price stability expected despite some downward pressure [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with low performance risk, those confirming performance bottoms, and those undergoing deep transformations [5]. - Specific companies highlighted for investment include Moutai, Fenjiu, and Gujing, with a focus on dividend yield for Wuliangye and monitoring the performance of Laojiao [5].

Group 1 - Nikkei 225 index surged 4.75% to reach a historical high, while Hang Seng Index rose 9.3% during the holiday, indicating strong performance in overseas markets [1] - A-share market has a historical trend of over 70% probability of rising in the first week after National Day, with three main drivers identified for a potential rebound [3] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in November has risen to 94%, leading to a shift of global funds from high-yield assets to emerging markets, with Chinese assets becoming a focal point [3] Group 2 - Domestic policies and liquidity are crucial for stabilizing the A-share market, with the central bank injecting 300 billion yuan in liquidity through reverse repos [5] - Various policy measures have been implemented, including tax refunds for semiconductor equipment purchases and consumer subsidies, creating a supportive environment for market recovery [5] - Industrial profits showed a significant turnaround, with a 20.4% year-on-year increase in August, ending three months of negative growth [5] Group 3 - The AI sector is experiencing growth, with AMD and OpenAI entering a multi-billion dollar partnership, driving global demand for computing power [7] - The penetration rate of domestic AI chips is expected to rise from 12% in 2024 to 28% in 2025, with private equity firms showing strong confidence in the technology sector [7] - Historical data indicates a 60% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the first five trading days after National Day, with an average increase of 1.41% [7] Group 4 - Analysts suggest the market has entered a "fundamentally driven bull market phase," with technology leading the way, while consumer and financial sectors are expected to catch up [9] - Semiconductor equipment companies are likely to benefit from policy subsidies, with firms like North Huachuang and Changchuan Technology showing strong profit growth [9] - The valuation of technology stocks remains low, with the computer industry PE at 38 times, below the 50th percentile since 2015 [9] Group 5 - Consumer sectors such as liquor and new energy are expected to benefit from seasonal demand and foreign capital inflow, supported by fiscal subsidies [11] - Financial sectors, including brokerage firms and banks, are positioned to gain from improved market sentiment and increased trading volumes [11] - Concerns exist regarding whether high valuations in technology stocks have already priced in future growth, especially if foreign capital takes profits [11]

Summary of China Spirits Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Spirits Industry**, particularly during the **Golden Week holiday season** which includes the National holiday and Mid-Autumn festival - Sales momentum for liquor consumption remained weak year-over-year (YoY) in key regions such as **Hunan, Anhui, and Henan** [1][1][1] Key Insights - **Banquet Demand**: Banquets are identified as the only growth pillar for spirits brands, outperforming other consumption scenarios during the holiday season, especially in **Jiangsu** and **Henan** provinces [1][1][1] - **Gifting Demand Decline**: There was a notable decline in gifting demand, with high-premium moon cakes (priced over Rmb500) market share dropping to approximately **1.8%** in 2025 YTD from **7.2%** in 2023. Pre-festival sales of moon cakes decreased by over **45%** YoY [1][1][1] - **Retail Sales Performance**: Overall retail sales of key enterprises in retail and catering increased by **3.3%** in the first four days of Golden Week, compared to a **6.3%** increase during the Labor Day holiday in 2025 [1][1][1] Regional Sales Performance - **Anhui**: Retail-end sales likely declined by **20%-30%** during the double holiday, with banquet sales still in a YoY downward trend [1][1][1] - **Jiangsu**: Retail-end sales likely decreased by over **20%** YoY, although banquet sales outperformed other consumption scenarios [1][1][1] - **Henan**: Holiday retail-end sales likely saw a **10%-15%** YoY decline, with banquet sales possibly remaining flat [1][1][1] - **Sichuan**: Retail-end sales may decrease by **20%** YoY, with gift-sending/business-related sales down by **20%-40%** YoY [1][1][1] - **Hunan**: Pre-festival shipment volumes for major brands like Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye saw declines ranging from **12% to 31%** YoY [1][1][1] Brand Performance - **Moutai**: - Feitian sell-through remained flat YoY, while non-standard SKUs saw a decline of over **20%** YoY [1][1][1] - Wholesale prices for original case Feitian Moutai decreased from **Rmb1,810** to **Rmb1,780** [1][1][1] - **Wuliangye**: - 1618 and Wuliangchun performed positively YoY, while common Wuliangye sell-through declined by **10%-15%** YoY [1][1][1] - **Laojiao**: Guojiao sell-through declined by over **25%** YTD YoY in some regions [1][1][1] Pricing Trends - Post-festival, wholesale prices for key upper-premium SKUs like Feitian Moutai and Common Wuliangye trended weaker compared to pre-festival prices, marking the weakest performance in the past five years [1][1][1] - Channel inventory levels remained stable, with Wuliangye and Laojiao at less than **2 months** and **3 months** respectively, while Gujing faced high inventory pressure [1][1][1] Additional Developments - **New Retail Initiatives**: - Waima opened its first offline store in **Chongqing**, offering upper-premium spirits brands [1][1][1] - I-Moutai launched insta-delivery services, supporting intra-city delivery in as fast as **30 minutes** [1][1][1] - **Sales Performance in Zhejiang**: Wuliangye management reported stable performance in weddings and celebratory banquets in the Zhejiang market [1][1][1] Conclusion - The China Spirits industry is currently facing challenges with weak demand trends, particularly in gifting and general consumption, while banquet demand remains a critical growth area. Brands are adjusting their strategies in response to changing consumer behaviors and market conditions.

Summary of the Conference Call on Baijiu Sales During the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day Industry Overview - The overall sales of baijiu during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day were lower than last year, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye experiencing smaller declines due to gift-giving demand. The price range of 300-600 RMB saw the fastest decline, exceeding 30% [1][3]. - Online channels diverted some sales from offline, leading to a significant drop in offline distributor channels [1][4]. Key Points on Sales Performance - **Sales Disparity**: Sales performance varied significantly across different price ranges. High-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye had smaller declines, while the 300-600 RMB price range saw the most significant drop [3][4]. - **Regional Performance**: In Jiangsu, sales were down compared to last year, with Yanghe focusing on inventory reduction and price increases. Guoyuan performed relatively well, with a decline of less than 10% [2][8]. - **Inventory Levels**: Jinshiyuan's inventory exceeded three months, while other brands like Guoyuan had larger terminal inventories, leading to price reductions for some products [10][6]. Brand-Specific Insights - **Yanghe**: Prices for core products increased, but social inventory remained high. The overall return rate was about 55%, which is a decline compared to last year [8][6]. - **Guoyuan**: The company aims for a return rate of over 90% by the end of November, with some products seeing a 20% increase in returns compared to last year [9]. - **Wuliangye**: The company implemented price control measures, allowing distributors to sell at higher prices, which helped stabilize prices around 810-815 RMB [32][33]. - **Luzhou Laojiao**: The brand's market performance was poor, completing only 55% of its annual target, with a focus on maintaining high prices for its high-alcohol products [34][35]. Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - **Shift to Online Sales**: Consumers are increasingly turning to online purchases, with some stores reporting a 50% increase in online sales, although overall sales remain dominated by offline channels [16][22]. - **Sales Channels**: There is a notable differentiation in sales performance among smoke shops, with those maintaining good customer relationships experiencing smaller declines [5][22]. Future Outlook - **Inventory Management**: The current inventory reduction cycle is expected to last longer, with a risk of 10%-30% of terminal stores potentially closing if the market does not recover by the Spring Festival [27]. - **Overall Market Trends**: The overall sales situation is projected to decline by about 15% in 2025 compared to the previous year, with significant challenges in the mid-range and low-end segments [31][25]. Conclusion - The baijiu industry is facing significant challenges with declining sales across various price segments, increased online competition, and inventory management issues. High-end brands are somewhat insulated from these trends, but overall market performance remains weak.