食品饮料 2025 年 12 月 14 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒短期批价扰动，西麦新品值得 关注—行业周报》-2025.12.7 《茅台韧性凸显，建议长期配置布局 —行业周报》-2025.11.30 《乳制品供需拐点可期，三大机会驱 动行业成长—行业周报》-2025.11.23 中央经济工作会议积极定调，飞天批价或止跌触底 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 核心观点：政策红利提振消费情绪，贵州茅台加码控价 12 月 8 日-12 月 12 日，食品饮料指数跌幅为 1.6%，一级子行业排名第 21，跑输 沪深 300 约 1.5pct，子行业中其他食品（+0.0%）、乳品（-1.1%）、啤酒（-1.3%） 表现相对领先。本周中央经济工作会议将"坚持内需主导，建设强大 ...

Core Insights - The retail prices of the top ten liquor products in the white liquor market showed slight stabilization, with overall prices remaining flat compared to the previous day, indicating a potential bottoming out after recent declines [1] - The total price for a bundled sale of one bottle from each of the top ten products today is 9,073 yuan, reflecting a mixed market with minor fluctuations [1] Price Movements - Notable price increases include: - Xijiu Junpin: up 6 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Lang: up 4 yuan per bottle - Qinghua Fen 20: up 3 yuan per bottle - Feitian Moutai and Wuliangye Pu Wubai Dai: both up 2 yuan per bottle [1] - Significant price decreases include: - Guojiao 1573: down 7 yuan per bottle - Yanghe Dream Blue M6+: down 4 yuan per bottle - Gujing Gonggu 20: down 3 yuan per bottle - Boutique Moutai: down 2 yuan per bottle - Crystal Jiananshun: down 1 yuan per bottle [1] Market Data - The current prices for notable products are as follows: - Feitian Moutai (53 degrees, 500ml): 1,808 yuan, up 2 yuan - Boutique Moutai (53 degrees, 500ml): 2,280 yuan, down 2 yuan - Wuliangye Pu Wubai Dai (52 degrees, 500ml): 830 yuan, up 2 yuan - Qinghua Fen 20 (53 degrees, 500ml): 385 yuan, unchanged - Guojiao 1573 (52 degrees, 500ml): 873 yuan, down 7 yuan [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on high-quality liquor companies, indicating that it has entered a strategic allocation period for these firms [2][7][8]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a significant decline in revenue for major liquor companies, with expectations of continued pressure in Q1 2026, but anticipates stabilization in Q2 and a potential turning point in Q3 2026 as inventory clears and demand recovers [2][7][8]. - The report recommends key liquor stocks including Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, while also suggesting attention to other brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhuijiu [2][7]. - For consumer goods, the report emphasizes opportunities in the restaurant supply chain, particularly in condiments and frozen foods, recommending companies like Anjifood, Yili, and Qindao Beer [2][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 1.63% last week, with liquor down 1.50%, underperforming the broader market [6]. - The top gainers included Yanjin Beer and Xin Dairy, while the largest losers were Xiwang Food and Haixin Food [6]. 2. Market Performance by Sector - The report notes that high-end liquor prices have been under pressure, with Moutai's bottle price at 1500 yuan, down 45 yuan week-on-week, and Wuliangye at approximately 780 yuan, down 20 yuan [8][38]. - The report indicates that Moutai's price has dropped over 100 yuan in three weeks due to increased supply and weak seasonal demand [8]. 3. Industry Events - The report discusses the strategic adjustments made by companies to alleviate channel pressures and boost confidence among distributors, which is expected to stabilize prices [2][8]. - It also mentions the anticipated recovery in the dairy sector, with a focus on solid-state processing products and low-temperature milk [9]. 4. Valuation Table - The report provides a current valuation for the food and beverage sector at a dynamic PE of 19.92x, with a premium rate of 22%, and for the liquor sector at a dynamic PE of 18.60x, with a premium rate of 14% [38].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - The November CPI data continues the growth trend from October, emphasizing the growth of consumer goods and low-value stocks. The price of Feitian Moutai remains volatile, with Moutai signaling stable pricing. The liquor industry is gradually clearing inventory, and attention is drawn to the upcoming peak season's volume and price rhythm [3][10] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report highlights the importance of the November CPI data, which shows a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, and a core CPI increase of 1.2%. It emphasizes growth as the main line and points out opportunities arising from supply and demand clearing. Recommended stocks include: 1. Liquor: Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, Jianshiyuan, Zhenjiu Lidu, Shede Liquor, and Jinhuijiu, with stable stocks like Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao 2. Beverages: Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring (Hong Kong), focusing on low valuation and high dividend stocks like China Foods (Hong Kong), Master Kong Holdings (Hong Kong), Uni-President China (Hong Kong), and China Want Want (Hong Kong) 3. Snacks and food raw materials: Recommended stocks include Bailong Chuangyuan, Yanjinpuzi, Weilong Delicious (Hong Kong), Three Squirrels, and Ximai Foods 4. Beer: Recommendations include Yanjing Beer, Qingdao Beer, Zhujiang Beer, and Bai Run Shares, as well as China Resources Beer (Hong Kong) 5. Seasonings and livestock: Recommended stocks include Qianhe Flavor Industry, Baoli Foods, Babi Foods, Anji Foods, Haitian Flavor Industry, Angel Yeast, Yili Group, New Dairy, Youran Livestock (Hong Kong), and Modern Animal Husbandry (Hong Kong) [6][9] White Liquor Market - The price of Feitian Moutai dropped below 1499 yuan but has since rebounded. The liquor sector is seen as a cyclical asset, with stock prices expected to bottom out ahead of fundamentals due to policy expectations. The report notes that the price drop was influenced by a temporary increase in supply and year-end channel funding needs. Moutai has communicated signals of controlled supply and rational distribution, with prices rebounding to above 1500 yuan [11][12] Consumer Goods - The report emphasizes growth in consumer goods, particularly in snacks. The popularity of konjac products continues, with leading brands enhancing their brand value. Recent events, such as the health snack launch by Weilong Delicious and the brand strategy announcement by Yanjinpuzi, are expected to promote sustained growth in konjac snacks [13] Livestock Industry - The report indicates a bottoming cycle in the livestock sector, with potential for a rebound in profitability. Factors contributing to this include a reduction in supply and an increase in demand for processed dairy products. The report anticipates a rise in milk prices in 2026 due to improved supply-demand balance and increased domestic production capacity [14][15]

Group 1 - The report analyzes the investment strategy for the liquor industry in 2026, indicating that the sector is currently in a clearing process, with leading liquor companies' real profits corresponding to a valuation of around 20 times, suggesting limited upward space but a stable dividend yield providing a safety margin [1][6] - The liquor industry has entered a mid-stage of corporate endurance, with stock prices at a bottom range, as evidenced by a significant decline in revenue, net profit, and cash returns in Q3 2025, marking the largest quarterly revenue drop since 2012 [5][11] - The industry is experiencing a shift from entropy increase to decrease, with rising concentration and reduced leverage, as the number of large liquor enterprises has decreased significantly, and the proportion of loss-making companies reached a record high of 36.1% in H1 2025 [16][19] Group 2 - The report predicts that the impact of demographic changes on liquor consumption will be minimal over the next 5-10 years, with the decline in the eligible drinking population being offset by the expansion of younger and female consumer groups [27][32] - Price support for the Flying Fairy liquor is expected in 2026 due to a projected supply growth rate of only 1% over the next five years, alongside a historical high purchasing power among consumers [27][28] - Current valuations are deemed reasonable, with the liquor index corresponding to a PE ratio of 18.85, close to historical lows, and institutional holdings at a record low, indicating strong earnings authenticity post-adjustment [5][7][19] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also recommending companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao that are actively clearing historical burdens [6][7] - The investment strategy suggests that the market will experience a shift in style, with key buying points identified around the Spring Festival, price index recovery, and improvements in seasonal sales [6][19] - The report highlights the ongoing challenges faced by distributors, with a significant reduction in their numbers and profitability, necessitating a transformation in their business models to adapt to the current market conditions [19][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential price adjustment strategies of high-end liquor brands, particularly focusing on Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, in response to market dynamics and competition, especially following Wuliangye's recent price changes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Wuliangye has initiated a price adjustment strategy, leading to speculation about whether Guojiao 1573 will follow suit [1]. - The competitive landscape has shifted, with Guojiao 1573's price gap with Wuliangye narrowing, and it even surpassed Wuliangye temporarily [2]. - The current market environment shows a trend of price adjustments among high-end liquor brands, with both Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 historically following each other's pricing strategies [3][4]. Group 2: Pricing Strategies - Wuliangye's pricing strategy has included initial price increases followed by indirect price reductions through channel subsidies, ultimately leading to formal price cuts [5]. - Guojiao 1573 has historically adopted a follow-the-leader approach in pricing, often adjusting its prices in response to Wuliangye's moves [6][9]. - The article highlights that Guojiao 1573 may not need to follow Wuliangye's price adjustments directly due to its diverse product offerings, which provide it with more flexibility [14]. Group 3: Historical Context - The current pricing adjustments reflect patterns seen in previous cycles, where both brands engaged in back-and-forth pricing strategies [3][10]. - Guojiao 1573's past experiences with pricing strategies have led to significant market share fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of timely adjustments [6][11]. - The article notes that the competitive landscape has evolved, with new players entering the market, making pricing strategies more complex [14][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The article suggests that both brands will need to navigate the ongoing challenges in the market, with a focus on maintaining brand value while managing pricing [17]. - The need for a balanced approach between pricing and volume is emphasized, as companies face the dilemma of sacrificing one for the other [11][12]. - The future strategies of both Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573 will likely continue to evolve in response to market conditions and competitive pressures [13][16].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a significant price decline, with the average retail price of the top ten products dropping, indicating a continued weak downward trend in the market [1]. Group 1: Market Price Trends - The average retail price of the top ten white liquor products has decreased by 50 yuan, with a total price of 9073 yuan for a bundled sale [1]. - Specific products such as Shuijingjiu and Qinghualang have seen price drops of 14 yuan and 8 yuan per bottle, respectively, leading the market decline [3]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The white liquor industry is facing pressures from high inventory levels and weak demand, with distributors experiencing significant financial strain and low willingness to stock new products [3]. - Despite the current market challenges, the stock prices of the sector have adjusted significantly, reflecting pessimistic expectations, and valuations are now at historically low levels, suggesting potential long-term investment value [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant decline in the prices of famous liquor brands during the "Double Twelve" promotional event, with platforms offering unprecedented subsidies leading to prices dropping below 1499 yuan per bottle for products like Feitian Moutai [2][3] - E-commerce platforms are using aggressive subsidy strategies, typically offering discounts of 20%-30% off the normal market price, to attract customers and increase user engagement, leveraging the high recognition and price transparency of famous liquors [3][5] - The current price fluctuations are primarily driven by supply and demand imbalances, with high inventory levels resulting from previous production expansions and reduced demand due to changing consumption habits and economic factors [8][10] Group 2 - Recent data indicates that the retail prices of major liquor brands such as Feitian Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 have decreased, with average prices reported at 1925.4 yuan, 863.42 yuan, and 917.83 yuan per bottle respectively, reflecting a downward trend compared to previous periods [5][12] - The high inventory levels and financial pressures on distributors are forcing them to sell at lower prices, with reports of significant price drops, including a 300 yuan decrease for some brands within a month [10] - Industry analysts suggest that the price recovery for famous liquors may not occur until consumer demand improves, inventory levels normalize, and structural adjustments within the industry are completed, with potential stabilization expected around 2026 [10][8]

每经AI快讯，开源证券12月12日发布研报称，给予泸州老窖（000568.SZ，最新价：122.98元）"买 入"评级。评级理由主要包括：1）前三季度压力有序释放，表现优于行业整体；2）白酒行业底部白酒 需求最差时间或已过，边际变化底部渐显；3）泸州老窖市场秩序良好，经销商结构稳定。风险提示： 宏观经济波动致使需求下滑，省外扩张不及预期等。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——专访管涛：美国政府经济贸易政策正逐渐动摇美元本位国际货币体系，利 多因素下人民币汇率有可能破7 （记者 王瀚黎） 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每日经济新闻 ...

Group 1 - The core transaction of Luzhou Laojiao on December 12 involved a block trade of 39,500 shares, amounting to 4.8577 million yuan, with a transaction price of 122.98 yuan per share [2][3] - The closing price of Luzhou Laojiao on the same day was 122.98 yuan, reflecting an increase of 1.30%, with a turnover rate of 0.88% and a total trading volume of 1.578 billion yuan [2] - Over the past five days, the stock has experienced a cumulative decline of 4.18%, with a total net outflow of funds amounting to 581 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The latest margin financing balance for Luzhou Laojiao is 1.932 billion yuan, which has increased by 75.3001 million yuan over the past five days, representing a growth rate of 4.05% [3] - The block trade on December 12 was conducted entirely between institutional special seats for both the buyer and seller [3]